Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - China

A Case Study of a World-class Research Project Accomplished in China: Discovery of the Quantum Anomalous Hall Effect

Junling Huang, Dongbo Shi, Lan Xue and Venkatesh "Venky" Narayanamurti — Tue, 20 Dec 2016 12:29:45 -0600

The authors analyze the Quantum Anomalous Hall Effect (QAHE) discovery process, with the focus on the emerging research culture in post-Cultural-Revolution China, explore how an effective research leader can mobilize all relevant resources toward one common goal, and discuss how reform in China's S&T administration and funding may facilitate similar scientific breakthrough and innovation.

Ambassador David Saperstein talks TPP, ISIL, and the next administration

Cathryn Clüver — Mon, 28 Nov 2016 13:49:02 -0600

November 28, 2016

David Saperstein, U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Religious Freedom, spoke on Monday, November 14^th at the Harvard Kennedy School on “U.S. Efforts to Promote Religious Freedom Abroad.” In a wide-ranging discussion moderated by Future of Diplomacy Project Executive Director Cathryn Clüver, the diplomat and rabbi explained the importance of religion and human rights as part of an integrated approach to foreign policy.

Cop22 After Trump

Gernot Wagner and David Keith — Mon, 21 Nov 2016 16:01:05 -0600

"...[E]ven if the impacts of a Trump slump in U.S. domestic climate action are manageable, the impact on global policy may not be. The concern here is not immediate support for new coal plants or the immediate risk of conflict; it is the way in which a weakening of international institutions might initiate a negative feedback loop played out over many years and decades."

Correspondence: Debating China's Rise and the Future of U.S. Power

William Z.Y. Wang, Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth — Mon, 14 Nov 2016 16:00:43 -0600

William Z.Y. Wang responds to Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth's winter 2015/16 article, "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position."

Correspondence: Stability or Volatility across the Taiwan Strait?

Derek Grossman, Sheryn Lee, Benjamin Schreer and Scott L. Kastner — Mon, 14 Nov 2016 15:51:00 -0600

Derek Grossman; and Sheryn Lee and Benjamin Schreer respond to Scott L. Kastner's winter 2015/16 article, "Is the Taiwan Strait Still a Flash Point? Rethinking the Prospects for Armed Conflict between China and Taiwan."

Managing Risk in an Unstable World

Nicholas Burns — Fri, 11 Nov 2016 15:27:57 -0600

November 11, 2016

Dr. Ian Bremmer, expert in political risk and founder of the Eurasia Group, gave a seminar sponsored by the the Future of Diplomacy Project on Thursday, November 9 at the Harvard Kennedy School, titled “Managing Risk in an Unstable World."

Goodbye to the Climate

Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 09 Nov 2016 17:56:19 -0600

"If he lives up to his campaign rhetoric, Mr. Trump may indeed be able to reverse course on climate change policy, increasing the threat to our planet, and in the process destroy much of the Obama legacy in this important realm. This will make the states even more important players on this critical issue."

After Trump victory, uncertainty in Asia. If America retreats, will it be China to the fore?

Derwin Pereira — Wed, 09 Nov 2016 14:20:09 -0600

Republican contender Donald Trump's shock victory in the American presidential election will unnerve Asians who believe that their future lies with the United States in the long term. What lurks ahead are at least four years of uncertainty and possible brinkmanship in American-Asian relations.

Center's Energy Work Wields Impact and Influence Around the World

Sharon Wilke — Thu, 03 Nov 2016 07:07:39 -0500

The Belfer Center began researching energy technology issues in the late 1990s. Its mission was “to determine and promote the adoption of effective strategies for developing and deploying cleaner and more efficient energy technologies that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and stress on water resources, and improve economic development.”

In this issue, we look at the history and influence of the Center’s energy innovation efforts in the past two decades by focusing primarily on ETIP’s work in the U.S. and China.

How to Sell Arms to Taiwan

Dan Altman — Wed, 02 Nov 2016 08:10:37 -0500

"To avoid a future crisis with China over arms sales, the United States should dispense with the "arms package" approach to arms sales to Taiwan and instead conduct the sales in a steady stream of small increments. Nobel-prize winning strategist Thomas Schelling coined the term "salami tactics" to describe this approach, a reference to slicing off an objective in a series of gradual steps rather than all at once."

Spent Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing in China

Hui Zhang — Tue, 01 Nov 2016 15:53:43 -0500

Hui Zhang presented "Spent Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing in China" at the 15th PIIC Beijing Seminar on International Security: Nuclear Nonproliferation and Cooperation.

2015 Military Reform in the People’s Republic of China

Andrei A. Kokoshin — Fri, 28 Oct 2016 16:28:06 -0500

The military reform in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), announced by China’s supreme party and state officials in 2015, is unprecedented in scale and depth. It aims to add a new dimension to China’s armed forces - to provide for more a compelling strategic deterrence and ability to win a local war, if such war breaks out. This reform is also a demonstration of a critical stage of development of China’s political system.

China’s Carbon Emissions Report 2016

Zhu Liu — Fri, 21 Oct 2016 13:44:30 -0500

This study summarizes the key features and drivers of China’s regional carbon emissions and conclude with suggestions for a low carbon policy for China.

Decrypting the Global Encryption Debate

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 16:26:08 -0500

"As the U.S. Congress considers the appropriate role for the federal government in the encryption debate, policymakers should be mindful of the impact of their actions both within and beyond the United States. To date, the U.S. and Europe are on one side of an Internet governance spectrum favoring the multi-stakeholder status quo with India in the middle, followed by China, and Russia undertaking the most state-centric approach to both Internet governance generally and encryption specifically."

When It Is Unfamiliar To Me: Local Acceptance Of Planned Nuclear Power Plants In China In The Post-Fukushima Era

Yue Guo and Tao REN — Thu, 20 Oct 2016 14:52:13 -0500

Many contributions have been made in the studies of the factors that influence public acceptance of nuclear power. However, previous studies seldom focused on nuclear power plants in the planning stage. Actually public perception is usually more sensitive at the preliminary planning stage of a nuclear power station. Mainly utilizing questionnaire survey and focus group methods, we have identified the factors that are correlated with local acceptance of planned nuclear power plants in China.

The Cyber Espionage Predominant Purpose Test

Jessica Malekos Smith — Thu, 20 Oct 2016 09:27:52 -0500

"Admittedly, international norms do not blossom into fully-grown gardens overnight. What the CEPP Test does offer, however, is a proverbial seed, which if properly cultivated could take root in the international legal system."

Harvard-Tsinghua Workshop on Low-Carbon Development and Public Policy

Henry Lee, Jinqiang (JC) Chen, Zhang Li, Amanda Sardonis and Pu Wang — Fri, 30 Sep 2016 14:27:40 -0500

September 30, 2016

The Harvard-Tsinghua Workshop on Low-Carbon Development and Public Policy is the third annual joint workshop between the Harvard Kennedy School’s Environment and Natural Resources Program and the Sustainability Science Program and the Center for Science, Technology, and Education Policy at Tsinghua University. The workshop convened prominent members of the academic and policy communities from China and the United States at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China, on June 2-3, 2016.

The three closed sessions were on: 1) Market Mechanisms to Reduce Carbon Emissions, 2) Role of Local Government in Low-Carbon Development, and 3) Energy Technology Innovation in the Transportation Sector.

When Trump meets Clinton: what Asians will be looking for in the US presidential election debate

Derwin Pereira — Sun, 25 Sep 2016 14:10:00 -0500

Derwin Pereira says it matters to the region how the issues of Sino-US relations, trade and America’s security partnerships will feature in the face-off between the candidates for president of the United States.

Early Summer Response of the East Asian Summer Monsoon to Atmospheric CO2 Forcing and Subsequent Sea Surface Warming

Jinqiang (JC) Chen and Simona Bordoni — Fri, 19 Aug 2016 11:48:57 -0500

In this article, the authors investigate the response of the EASM to CO₂ forcing at different time scales, and untangle various dynamic and thermodynamic processes that can mediate the precipitation response to changes in boundary forcing (such as land–sea contrast, topography, and SSTs) through radiation–circulation interactions.

Can the United States Command the Commons in East Asia?

Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich — Thu, 18 Aug 2016 15:25:57 -0500

This policy brief is based on "Future Warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese Antiaccess/Area Denial, U.S. AirSea Battle, and Command of the Commons in East Asia," which appears in the summer 2016 issue of International Security.

Forgoing U.S. Damage-Limitation against China's Nuclear Weapons

Charles L Glaser — Mon, 15 Aug 2016 10:57:29 -0500

This policy brief is based on "Should the United States Reject MAD? Damage Limitation and U.S. Nuclear Strategy toward China" which will appear in the summer 2016 issue of International Security.

Future Warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese Antiaccess/Area Denial, U.S. AirSea Battle, and Command of the Commons in East Asia

Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich — Mon, 08 Aug 2016 15:40:40 -0500

Many policy analysts have suggested that China is developing antiaccess and area denial capabilities that could force the U.S. military out of the Western Pacific. The threat, however, is limited. China will likely acquire the ability to partially restrict the U.S. military's freedom of movement in the East and South China Seas, but the United States will maintain a sphere of influence sufficient to protect most of its allies in the region.

Should the United States Reject MAD? Damage Limitation and U.S. Nuclear Strategy toward China

Charles L Glaser and Steve Fetter — Mon, 08 Aug 2016 15:33:37 -0500

China's growing nuclear arsenal threatens to erode the United States' damage-limitation capability—its ability to destroy Chinese forces and thereby significantly reduce the damage that an all-out Chinese nuclear attack would inflict on the United States. Nevertheless, the United States should not attempt to preserve this capability. Doing so is technologically infeasible, would not add to the U.S. nuclear deterrent, would heighten tensions with China, and would increase the risk of nuclear escalation in a crisis.

Is Russia trying to sway the U.S. election?

David Ignatius — Sun, 31 Jul 2016 15:26:48 -0500

As the candidates are solidified by their respective parties, leaked emails call to question the involvement of outside parties in opening access to the public on private correspondence. Senior Fellow for The Future of Diplomacy Project, David Ignatius, digs into the validity of such claims and the breakdown of security.

Can a rebuked China manage its anger?

David Ignatius — Wed, 27 Jul 2016 15:01:21 -0500

China suffered a significant setback this month in its bid for dominance in the South China Sea, and its leaders are following a familiar script after such reversals: They’re making angry statements but taking little action while they assess the situation. David Ignatius, Senior Fellow at the Future of Diplomacy Project, dives into the backlash of the Permanent Court of Arbitration decision against China's dominance of the waters.

China's Climate Conundrum

Henry Lee — Mon, 25 Jul 2016 13:09:56 -0500

In the last two years, China’s President Xi Jinping signed two major climate agreements with the United States committing China to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and to increase the non-fossil-fuel share of all energy to a target of 20 percent. In addition, China submitted to the United Nations’ meaningful Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining its carbon reduction targets. Chinese officials at all levels of government — central, provincial and local — are focused on developing low-carbon initiatives, with each one competing to have the most visible initiatives, ideally without having to expend much in the way of new resources.

Assessing China’s Uranium Enrichment Capacity

Hui Zhang — Sun, 24 Jul 2016 13:55:59 -0500

This paper will offer a significant new assessment of uranium enrichment capacity in China, based on satellite imagery, Chinese publications, and discussions with Chinese experts. It concludes that China has a lot more enrichment capacity now than we thought and even more on the way.

Modern Conquest

Dan Altman — Wed, 20 Jul 2016 16:33:10 -0500

"Conquest is a regular feature of war. But it is generally accepted that globalization and growing economic interconnectedness has stitched the world together in such a way that fighting each other for land is no longer pragmatic. Then in 2014, Russia stunned the world by annexing Crimea...."

Force of law or law of force? The ball is in China's court

Derwin Pereira — Thu, 14 Jul 2016 09:01:17 -0500

July 14, 2016

The Permanent Court of Arbitration's ruling on the South China Sea marks a watershed in Asian maritime history. The decision by the Hague-based international tribunal could ignite tensions leading to war if Beijing responds by behaving as if international law does not matter. It is in China's own interests to act otherwise, as a mature rising power which has a stake in the peaceful evolution of the Asian security order.

On Tuesday, the Hague-based international tribunal concluded that China has no legal basis to claim “historic rights” to islands in the South China Sea and that it has violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines, which had lodged a suit against it in 2013. The tribunal repudiated China's claim to most of the South China Sea as its sovereign territory on the basis of Chinese maps dating back to the 1940s that carry the ubiquitous “nine-dash line”.

Of Course China, Like All Great Powers, Will Ignore an International Legal Verdict

Graham Allison — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 10:22:51 -0500

This week the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) will deliver its award in the Philippines’ case against China over maritime disputes in the South China Sea. In a bid to thwart Beijing’s attempt to turn the South China Sea into its own virtual lake, Manila contends that China’s claim to exclusive sovereignty over all the islands and shoals within the nine-dashed line – which encompasses 86 percent of the Sea – has no basis in international law. There is not much suspense about what the tribunal will decide: it will almost certainly side with the Philippines. The United States and its allies have already started criticizing China for signaling in advance that it will ignore the court’s ruling, which one Chinese official derided last week as “nothing more than a piece of paper.”