Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - North Korea

Would South Korea Really Go Nuclear?

Lami Kim — Fri, 30 Dec 2016 15:19:01 -0600

"Until recently, calls for nuclear armament were considered extremist in South Korean political discourse. However, public support for nuclear armament is growing in South Korea due to North Korea’s nuclear provocations. In a recent Gallup Korea poll, 58 percent supported nuclear armament. If the U.S. security guarantee is not credible in the minds of South Koreans, and nuclear armament is the only way to defend South Korea’s security from North Korea, a nuclear option will seem even more appealing to the public."

Ambassador David Saperstein talks TPP, ISIL, and the next administration

Cathryn Clüver — Mon, 28 Nov 2016 13:49:02 -0600

November 28, 2016

David Saperstein, U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Religious Freedom, spoke on Monday, November 14^th at the Harvard Kennedy School on “U.S. Efforts to Promote Religious Freedom Abroad.” In a wide-ranging discussion moderated by Future of Diplomacy Project Executive Director Cathryn Clüver, the diplomat and rabbi explained the importance of religion and human rights as part of an integrated approach to foreign policy.

Managing Risk in an Unstable World

Nicholas Burns — Fri, 11 Nov 2016 15:27:57 -0600

November 11, 2016

Dr. Ian Bremmer, expert in political risk and founder of the Eurasia Group, gave a seminar sponsored by the the Future of Diplomacy Project on Thursday, November 9 at the Harvard Kennedy School, titled “Managing Risk in an Unstable World."

North Korea’s 5th Nuclear Test – What now?

Olli Heinonen — Fri, 16 Sep 2016 11:38:03 -0500

North Korea just heralded the 68th anniversary of its founding by conducting its fifth nuclear test. The initial seismic recordings were larger than previously recorded activity. This, coupled with other indicators, suggests that Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons capability is accelerating.

Nuclear Debates in Asia

Hui Zhang — Fri, 01 Jul 2016 15:48:13 -0500

This important book analyzes nuclear weapon and energy policies in Asia, a region at risk for high-stakes military competition, conflict, and terrorism. The contributors explore the trajectory of debates over nuclear energy, security, and nonproliferation in key countries—China, India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and other states in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

China: Evolving Attitudes on Nuclear Affairs

Hui Zhang — Fri, 01 Jul 2016 15:45:38 -0500

Living with Nuclear North Korea

Se Young Jang — Mon, 27 Jun 2016 12:02:53 -0500

US and South Korean foreign policy needs to catch up with the increasingly likely reality that North Korea has already crossed a nuclear weapons state threshold, writes Se Young Jang.

North Korea poses rising threat for next president

David Ignatius — Mon, 13 Jun 2016 13:15:58 -0500

Sometime over the next several years, the next U.S. president could confront a genuinely dangerous threat from a faraway place — a North Korean missile that can hit U.S. territory with a nuclear warhead. David Ignatius, Senior Fellow with the Future of Diplomacy Project examines the threat from across the Pacific.

Will America's Asian Allies Go Nuclear?

Se Young Jang — Wed, 04 May 2016 10:44:42 -0500

May 4, 2016

"In Northeast Asia, where national security still overwhelmingly dominates the perspectives and behavior of states, nuclear proliferation, both vertical and horizontal, is gaining stronger momentum. China’s recent but substantial investment in modernizing its nuclear arsenal and improving its reprocessing capacity is alarming its neighbors, as well as the United States. The nuclear pursuits of North Korea and, in particular, the acceleration of nuclear and missile tests seem to be spiraling, whereas diplomatic efforts to stop Pyongyang's nuclear path have been futile to date. In addition to its fourth nuclear test in January 2016, a series of missile and rocket tests and the recent firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), Pyongyang is reportedly preparing another nuclear weapons test in the coming months..."

A New Nuclear World Order: Safety, Security and Safeguards

Olli Heinonen — Thu, 28 Apr 2016 12:01:38 -0500

“A New Nuclear World Order: Safety, Security and Safeguards” in Die Zwischengesellschaft, written by Senior Fellow Olli Heinonen, reviews in detail measures to strengthen nuclear safety, security and safeguards to support states in developing and using nuclear energy in a safe, secure and peaceful manner.

Correlating the Operation of the Coal Plant to Reprocessing Activities at Yongbyon

Olli Heinonen — Tue, 26 Apr 2016 12:38:03 -0500

As of April 2016, there are growing indications that North Korea has separated, is separating, or will soon be separating plutonium from irradiated fuel at the Radiochemical Laboratory, a process commonly referred to as reprocessing. An analysis of recent satellite imagery obtained shows several activities, which could be correlated to the preparation or actual reprocessing activities underway.

Summit Underscores Obama's Mixed Results on Nuclear Security

William H. Tobey — Wed, 06 Apr 2016 10:39:12 -0500

President Obama convened more than 50 world leaders in Washington this week hoping that international progress on one of his long-standing policy priorities, nonproliferation, would outlast his administration, but the gathering served mostly to highlight the mixed record of Obama’s nuclear agenda.

Celebrating Stephen Bosworth

Sharon Wilke and Stephen Bosworth — Wed, 06 Apr 2016 07:10:04 -0500

Ambassador Stephen W. Bosworth, a Belfer Center senior fellow, former ambassador, university dean, and long-time public servant, died on January 4, 2016, at the age of 76.

Reviewing the Administration’s Nuclear Agenda

William H. Tobey — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 15:10:40 -0500

Senior Fellow William Tobey testified on March 17, 2016, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on "Reviewing the Administration’s Nuclear Agenda."

To Stop the Missiles, Stop North Korea, Inc.

James Walsh and John S. Park — Thu, 10 Mar 2016 09:49:31 -0600

In this op-ed for the New York Times, former MTA Executive Director James Walsh and MTA Faculty Affiliate John S. Park argue that, though American diplomats should be proud of the new sanctions on North Korea that the United Nations Security Council passed last week, the key to stopping North Korea's weapons program is completely dismantling the private Chinese firms that help import illicit goods, through cooperation between the United States and China.

Diplomat, Asia Expert Kurt Campbell Joins Belfer Center as Senior Fellow

Mon, 29 Feb 2016 15:18:30 -0600

Kurt Campbell, Chairman and CEO of The Asia Group, LLC, and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, has been named a Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Widely credited with framing the Obama administration’s rebalance to Asia, Campbell will focus his research at the Belfer Center on his forthcoming book, The Pivot: America’s Rediscovery of the Asia-Pacific Century.

High Stakes at the Sunnylands Summit

Derwin Pereira and Patrick Cronin — Thu, 11 Feb 2016 08:12:37 -0600

As President Obama prepares to host a summit with ASEAN leaders in Sunnylands, California, next week, Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Asia-Pacific Security Program Director Patrick Cronin and Pereira International CEO Derwin Pereira have written a new commentary for CNAS titled “High Stakes at the Sunnylands Summit.” The commentary is a product of CNAS’ Derwin Pereira Southeast Asian Foreign Policy Roundtables.

Reducing the Use of Highly Enriched Uranium in Civilian Research Reactors

William H. Tobey — Thu, 04 Feb 2016 14:01:22 -0600

Reducing the Use of Highly Enriched Uranium in Civilian Research Reactors is a report of the Committee on the Current Status of and Progress Toward Eliminating Highly Enriched Uranium Use in Fuel for Civilian Research and Test Reactors. The committee was established by the Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The report is the result of a congressionally mandated study (P.L. 112-239, Section 31781) to assess improvement in reducing highly enriched uranium use in fuel for civilian research and test reactors.

Belfer Center Senior Fellow William Tobey is a member of the Committee that produced the report.

Let's Use What North Korea Is Most Afraid of: Ideological Warfare

Jieun Baek — Thu, 07 Jan 2016 11:29:05 -0600

North Korea claims to have successfully tested its first hydrogen bomb. While analysts and scientists test the validity of its claim, what we know for sure is this is North Korea's fourth nuclear test -- the third during President Obama's administration. After North Korea hacked Sony upon releasing the movie "The Interview" in Dec. 2014, Obama pledged to "respond proportionately."

Nuclear nervousness

Matthew Bunn and Gary Samore — Thu, 07 Jan 2016 10:46:58 -0600

Two analysts from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School, Matthew Bunn, co-principal investigator of the Project on Managing the Atom, and Gary Samore, the center’s executive director for research, spoke with the Harvard Gazette about North Korea’s nuclear program and what the latest test means for relations between the government of leader Kim Jong-un and other nations, and how the blast may affect global efforts to limit nuclear weapons.

North Korea’s Latest Nuclear Test: A Belfer Center Expert Round-Up

Thu, 07 Jan 2016 08:53:09 -0600

North Korea’s report that it tested a hydrogen bomb this week set off alarm bells around the world. Though analysts are casting doubt on the nature of the detonation, Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test is a reminder of the regime's unpredictability. How serious is this action and how should foreign powers respond? Belfer Center experts Graham Allison, Jieun Baek, Matthew Bunn, Nicholas Burns, Olli Heinonen, John Park, Gary Samore, and William Tobey weigh in on the significance and implications of North Korea’s latest nuclear test.

Lessons Learned from Past Negotiations to Prevent Nuclear Proliferation

William H. Tobey — Wed, 24 Jun 2015 08:28:26 -0500

Senior Fellow William Tobey testified before the Senate Foreign Relations committee discussing the history of past negotiations to prevent nuclear proliferation.

Fresh Ideas for the Future: Symposium on the NPT Nuclear Disarmament, Non-proliferation, and Energy

Thu, 30 Apr 2015 14:01:44 -0500

April 30, 2015

On April 28, the Project on Managing the Atom joined the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, The Netherlands government, and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) in convening nuclear nonproliferation experts from around the world at the United Nations to participate in a Symposium on the 2015 Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference.

Hack and Frack North Korea

Jieun Baek — Tue, 28 Apr 2015 13:36:28 -0500

This paper will make a case for the U.S. government to pursue three strategies if its operational objective is to force North Korea to reappraise its own interests. Individual self-determination and access to information—two properties the Kim regime fears most for its citizens to possess –are the short-term goals for North Koreans. This objective and two goals do not necessarily equate to regime change.

The Comedy of Errors

Charles G. Cogan — Tue, 23 Dec 2014 16:54:34 -0600

"Although Sony has nothing to do with the U.S. Government, and Hollywood has dramatized world leaders before (such as Charles de Gaulle in Day of the Jackal), it seems appropriate to pose the following question: whoever, individually or collectively, came up with the idea of putting together a film, even a farce, which includes an assassination by the Central Intelligence Agency of a living world leader, namely Kim Jong Eun of North Korea?"

The Key to the North Korean Targeted Sanctions Puzzle

John S. Park — Sat, 01 Nov 2014 10:12:37 -0500

"At no point in the history of U.S. nonproliferation and counterproliferation policy have financial sanctions been so central to U.S. efforts to prevent or rollback the acquisition of nuclear weapons in countries such as North Korea and Iran. Despite this crucial role, financial sanctions have been examined almost solely from the sender’s perspective, that is, the country imposing the sanctions. Few focused policy analyses have measured the effects of these instruments from the target’s perspective..."

The Lessons of 1914 for East Asia Today: Missing the Trees for the Forest

Ja Ian Chong and Todd Hall — Tue, 19 Aug 2014 13:47:10 -0500

The ubiquitous comparison drawn between pre–World War I Anglo-German antagonism and current U.S.-China relations is flawed. Instead, the outbreak of war in 1914 offers specific lessons for contemporary East Asia concerning the dangers of complex security arrangements, nationalism, and repeated crises.

Squaring the Nonproliferation Circle

William H. Tobey — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 13:21:54 -0500

Senior Fellow William H. Tobey evaluates the effectiveness of President Obama's policies to stem the threats of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.

A North Korean in Iran

Olli Heinonen and Simon Henderson — Wed, 23 Jul 2014 13:16:51 -0500

The death from natural causes of an old man in North Korea this month should have been the closing chapter of the tale of Pakistan's nuclear and missile cooperation with the Hermit Kingdom. Instead, it may mark the next episode in the saga of Iran's controversial nuclear program.

The Nuclear Maginot Line

Graham Allison and Oren Setter — Tue, 01 Jul 2014 10:00:04 -0500

French Minister of War Andre Maginot became infamous among military strategists for his fixation on a single route of attack that led to a fatal neglect of alternatives. Seeking to block a German invasion along the primary East-West axis, Maginot constructed an impregnable line of fortifications in the 1930s. He succeeded in preventing the attack he most feared, but when German panzers outflanked that line and rolled through Belgium in 1940, their attack from the rear led to France’s surrender in just six weeks.