Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - China and security

Hard Decisions on Soft Power: Opportunities and Difficulties for Chinese Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye and Wang Jisi — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:34:09 -0400

"But just as China's economic and military power does not yet match that of the United States, China's soft power still has a long way to go as demonstrated by a Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll. China does not have cultural industries like Hollywood, and its universities are not yet the equal of the United States. It lacks the many non-governmental organizations that generate much of US soft power. Politically, China suffers from corruption, inequality, and a lack of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. While that may make the "Beijing consensus" attractive in authoritarian and semi-authoritarian developing countries, it undercuts China's soft power in the West. Although China's new diplomacy has enhanced its attractiveness to its neighbors in Southeast Asia, the belligerence of its hard power stance toward Taiwan hurt it in Europe when China sought to persuade Europeans to relax their embargo on the sale of arms. Given the domestic problems that China must still overcome, there are limits to China's ability to attract others, but one would be foolish to ignore the gains the country is making."

China's Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response

Robert Ross — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:41:58 -0400

Recent developments in Chinese politics and defense policy indicate that China will soon embark on an ambitious maritime policy that will include construction of a power-projection navy centered on an aircraft carrier. But just as nationalism and the pursuit of status encouraged past land powers to seek great power maritime capabilities, widespread nationalism, growing social instability, and the leadership's concern for its political legitimacy drive China's naval ambition.

Bad Debts: Assessing China's Financial Influence in Great Power Politics

Daniel W. Drezner — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:17:12 -0400

Commentators and policymakers have articulated growing concerns about U.S. dependence on China and other authoritarian capitalist states as a source of credit to fund the United States' trade and budget deficits. What are the security implications of China's creditor status? If Beijing or another sovereign creditor were to flex its financial muscles, would Washington buckle?

Confucius Could Help Relations Between US, China

Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 00:34:01 -0400

"To use the middle way essentially means that Washington and Beijing should not be too optimistic, or even too pessimistic, about their relations. Nor should they overestimate their joint capacity in shaping the world order. Instead, they should value collaboration, but also prepare for deviations. The guiding principle of this middle way is to always solve problems in a peaceful, mutually respectful, and pragmatic manner."

Improving U.S.-China Relations: The Next Steps

Richard N. Rosecrance — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 11:29:26 -0400

A higher Renminbi will have two advantages: for the United States, it will help to equilibrate the past trade imbalance; for China, it will stimulate consumption (and enhance imports). It will therefore help China switch from a purely exporting strategy to one that maintains domestic growth through internal consumption. The goods that were to be sent abroad can now be consumed by an increasingly middle class nation at home. These steps will bring China and the United States closer economically and increase international stability. However, unless the military-security relations of the two countries improve, this will not be a sufficient remedy for the two nations' long term problems.

Belfer in Brief

Wed, 27 May 2009 10:01:34 -0400

News from the Belfer Center.

U.S.-China Relations: Key Next Steps

Beth Maclin — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:20:36 -0400

With the United States and China expected to be the two dominant powers in the twenty-first century, it is essential that they actively manage their relationship to avoid military conflict, a group of distinguished Chinese and American scholars said at a major conference in Washington, D.C. The scholars—from Harvard Kennedy School, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and elsewhere—have worked together for more than two years to create a blueprint for a new relationship between the two countries.

Preventive Defense Project Encourages Taipei-Beijing Dialogue

Jennifer C. Bulkeley — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:15:06 -0400

Over the past decade, the Belfer Center’s Preventive Defense Project (PDP) has organized a series of “Track II” dialogues between Taiwan, mainland China, and the United States – dialogues that have contributed substantially to diffusing tensions between leaders in the U.S. and China. The off-the-record discussions offer participants an opportunity to speak candidly about issues often deemed too controversial to be discussed in official Track I bilateral discussions. At meetings in July 2008, the PDP delegation encouraged participants from Taiwan and mainland China to seize the opportunity for an improved relationship.

China into Africa: Trade, Aid, and Influence

Robert Rotberg — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 10:21:44 -0400

“Two myths have been concocted by the West on Africa: that the Western impact on Africa has been benign while China’s record in Africa has only been negative. The truth in both areas is more complex. This volume, China into Africa, brings out the complexity of the China story in Africa and illustrates why more balanced assessments are needed on Africa’s relations with the world”

--Kishore Mahbubani

Dean, the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore

Defense Strategy & Budget in the Post-Bush Era

Dr. Ashton B. Carter — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:34:17 -0400

A key challenge for the next administration's national security leadership concerns the management of investment in the U.S. national security future. In this paper for the Aspen Strategy Group, Dr. Ashton Carter discusses the challenges of defense budgeting and program selection, and the current mismatch between resources and strategy.

China's Cyber Warriors

Eric Rosenbach and Tamara Klajn — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:00:25 -0400

Could the United States be under attack from China without Americans even really knowing it?

Last week, Republican Reps. Frank R. Wolf of Virginia and Christopher H. Smith of New Jersey announced that Chinese hackers had attacked their office computers. Mr. Wolf and Mr. Smith, very public critics of China's human rights record, noted that it was likely that in 2006, the hackers sought to steal information about Chinese dissidents and refugees who had sought assistance from members of Congress.

Skeptics have suggested that the politicians' announcement was most likely intended as good old-fashioned China-bashing. After all, the details of the incident were "old news" to the U.S. national security community. And even the casual observer of American politics knows that China is often the target of unwarranted populist attacks on Capitol Hill.

Beijing Says No to Terrorism at Olympics

Shacheng Wang — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:43:41 -0400

"Terrorism is the biggest threat to the games and is not new to the Olympics. Eleven Israelis, five guerrillas, and one police officer were killed at the 1972 games in Munich. Two people were killed when a bomb exploded in Centennial Park during the 1996 games in Atlanta....China's generally secretive police agencies have sought advice on Olympic security from the U.S., Korea, Interpol, Germany, Israel, Australia, France, the U.K., Japan, Greece, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, and others."

PDP Co-Directors Lead U.S. Delegation to Taiwan & PRC for Strategic Security Discussions

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:00:43 -0400

In cooperation with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, PDP Co-Directors William Perry and Ashton Carter led a bipartisan civilian/military delegation to Taiwan and the People's Republic of China for the ninth Track II Strategic Security Issues Dialogue.

Report of the Strategic Security Issues Delegation to Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC)

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:08:19 -0400

Full text of the trip report from PDP's Track II meetings in Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC).

Balancing Asia's Rivals

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:36:35 -0400

"...Bush leaves behind a better legacy in Asia. American relations with Japan and China remain strong, and he has greatly enhanced the United States' ties with India, the world's second most populous country....Improved relations between India and the U.S. can structure the international situation in a manner that encourages such an evolution in Chinese policy, whereas trying to isolate China would be a mistake.

Handled properly, the simultaneous rise of China and India could be good for all countries."

Information Galaxy: Intelligence Study on Security and Defense—Case on Potential Terrorism at the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

Shacheng Wang and Feng Cao — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 18:21:07 -0400

The summer 2008 Olympic Games will take place in Beijing, China on August 8–24. In general, the security situation for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is quite stable, but still we need to face up to the threats from both traditional and non-traditional security areas such as terrorism, separatism and extremism. Terrorism is the biggest threat to the games. Effective security and defense strategies for the games require reliable intelligence. Reliable intelligence, however, is notoriously difficult to obtain even though we are immersed in vast quantities of information. How can we identify and obtain the useful intelligence from the vast sea of other less useful information? After analyzing the potential terrorism attacks and terrorists in the games, the paper analyzes the potential means for counterterrorism at the games, and tries to set up an intelligence study system based on the IG (Information Galaxy), which includes five parts: Sun (S), Earth (E), Moon (M), ISE (Information Sharing Environment) and IG (Information Galaxy).

Russian and Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Plans in Space

Pavel Podvig and Hui Zhang — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 15:57:16 -0400

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences called upon Pavel Podvig and Hui Zhang to consider what consequences would develop if the United States continues to pursue the weaponization of space and how China and Russia would respond, and what would be the broader implications for international security.

Toward a Liberal Realist Foreign Policy: A Memo for the Next President

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 17:57:15 -0500

"On January 20, you will inherit a legacy of trouble: Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Palestine, North Korea for starters. Failure to manage any one of them could mire your presidency and sap your political support—and threaten the country’s future. At the same time, you must not let these inherited problems define your foreign policy. You need to put them in a larger context and create your own vision of how Americans should deal with the world."

Rethinking Beijing's Burma Policy

Jason Qian and Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 11:00:02 -0500

"China would want to avoid choosing sides in Burma, so as not to compromise its holistic interests. A more effective route is to manage relations with all to maximise common interest. To achieve this, the motto of 'there are no permanent friends or enemies in international relations' is the key....As in the case of North Korea, China does not want the problems of a neighbour like Burma spilling over into its own territory. Burma is also part of China's strategic configuration with other regional and international players."

Taiwan and Fear in US-China Ties

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 13:42:17 -0500

"The US has a broad national interest in maintaining good relations with China, as well as a specific human rights interest in protecting Taiwan's democracy. But the US does not have a national interest in helping Taiwan become a sovereign country with a seat at the UN, and efforts by some Taiwanese to do so present the greatest danger of a miscalculation that could create enmity between the US and China."

Power Shifts and Escalation: Explaining China's Use of Force in Territorial Disputes

M. Taylor Fravel — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 13:14:06 -0500

East Asia and the rest of the world have feared that China’s rise would create regional instability, particularly if China used force in territorial disputes. Although this fear is not completely unfounded, Beijing has gone to great lengths to settle or neutralize the majority of its disputes and has rarely used force. Only after China experienced a decline in its bargaining power in six conflicts did its leaders face pressure to signal resolve through the use of force. Today, China’s disputes over the Senkaku Islands and Taiwan remain the most volatile. As a major player in the region (particularly in the case of Taiwan), the United States can limit the potential for violence by continuing to support the status quo.

Great Powers and Hierarchical Order in Southeast Asia: Analyzing Regional Security Strategies

Evelyn Goh — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 13:24:08 -0500

The end of the Cold War left the stability of Southeast Asia in question, with many assuming that China would dominate the region after the United States withdrew and that other countries would engage in conflict. Instead, Southeast Asian states shaped the new regional order by encouraging the omni-enmeshment of major powers through multilateral institutions and indirectly balancing against China. The resulting stability, though promising, remains questionable because of uncertainty regarding U.S. commitment and Chinese intentions in this part of the world, as well as the involvement of other regional powers. The United States must widely engage Southeast Asia to maintain a favorable regional order.

The Rise of China's Harmony-Oriented Diplomacy

Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 21:05:31 -0500

China’s diplomacy is assuming a more assertive face by advocating harmony between countries and between peoples. This transformation has been commensurate with China’s power reemergence and with its reclaiming of the cultural richness of Confucianism.

China Program Drives Research for Positive U.S.-China Relationship

Thu, 13 Dec 2007 11:42:05 -0500

Are China and the United States destined to become adversaries? The Belfer Center and the greater Harvard community are driving efforts to study the meteoric rise of China and to work with China to ensure a positive future relationship.

From The Director

Graham Allison — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 11:20:35 -0500

The Belfer Center's Director, Graham Allison, focuses on the upcoming academic year and the plans for the Belfer Center.

U.S. Primacy, Eurasia's New Strategic Landscape, and the Emerging Asian Order

Alexander Vuving — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 12:37:57 -0500

This paper argues that the current structure of international power in Asia is transitional. But neither hegemony nor multipolarity will likely be the next Asian order. The paper then assesses the prospects of the emerging regional order in Asia in terms of four options: bipolarity, the East Asian Community, U.S.-China condominium, and shared leadership. The paper concludes by discussing how Southeast Asian countries should prepare for the future strategic environment.

Reassessing Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: Competition, Congruence, and Transformation

Amitav Acharya and Evelyn Goh — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Since the 1990s, Asia-Pacific countries have changed their approaches to security cooperation and regional order. The end of the Cold War, the resurgence of China, the Asian economic crisis, and the events of September 11, 2001, have all contributed to important changes in the Asia-Pacific security architecture.

Modes of Regional Conflict Management: Comparing Security Cooperation in the Korean Peninsula, China-Taiwan, and the South China Sea

Rosemary Foot — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0400

"Analysts focusing on the prospects for inter-state war or peace in the Asia-Pacific invariably have pointed to the Korean Peninsula (KP), China/Taiwan (CT), and the South China Sea (SCS) conflicts as the potential "flash points" or "hot spots" of the region...."

Revisiting North Korea's Nuclear Test

Hui Zhang — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Hui Zhang re-examines the North Korean explosion on October 9, 2006. His research suggests that the test was likely not a failure if Pyongyang had planned for a yield of 4 kt, as it told Beijing prior to the event.

China’s Oil Initiatives Signal International Cooperation

Amanda Swanson — Tue, 01 May 2007 16:11:02 -0400

By 2030, China will have to import 77 percent of its crude oil in order to meet its rapidly increasing energy demands. Where China will get the 10.9 billion barrels it requires and how it negotiates the global oil market is the subject of a new paper by Henry Lee, director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program at the Belfer Center, and Dan Shalmon, research associate at the Center. "Searching for Oil: China's Oil Initiatives in the Middle East" explores China's relationships with oil-producing countries and the possible geopolitical implications of its widening market reach.