Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Conflict and Conflict Resolution

What is 'Israel-Palestine'?

Joshua Gleis — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 16:30:30 -0500

"It’s common to hear the term 'Israel-Palestine' when referring to either Israel or the Palestinian Territories, particularly in academic circles. Students and professors in any American college — from your local college to an Ivy League university — are likely to refer to 'Israel-Palestine' (also written as 'Israel/Palestine') as if that was the name of a country. In this age of extreme political correctness, apparently many are willing to overlook the little fact that there is no such country of 'Israel-Palestine'...."

Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict

Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 23:24:05 -0500

The historical record indicates that nonviolent campaigns have been more successful than armed campaigns in achieving ultimate goals in political struggles, even when used against similar opponents and in the face of repression. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to win legitimacy, attract widespread domestic and international support, neutralize the opponent's security forces, and compel loyalty shifts among erstwhile opponent supporters than are armed campaigns, which enjoin the active support of a relatively small number of people, offer the opponent a justification for violent counterattacks, and are less likely to prompt loyalty shifts and defections. An original, aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 is used to test these claims. These dynamics are further explored in case studies of resistance campaigns in Southeast Asia that have featured periods of both violent and nonviolent resistance.

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How American Treaty Behavior Threatens National Security

Antonia Chayes — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:39:47 -0500

In recent years, American treaty behavior has produced growing concern among both allies and less friendly nations. On such fundamental issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, human rights, civil liberties, environmental disasters, and commerce, the United States has generated confusion and anger abroad. Such a climate is not conducive to needed cooperation in the conduct of foreign and security policy. Among U.S. actions that have caused concern are the failure to ratify several treaties; the attachment of reservations, understandings, and declarations before ratification; the failure to support a treaty regime once ratified; and treaty withdrawal. The structural and historical reasons for American treaty behavior are deeply rooted in the United States' system of government and do not merely reflect superpower arrogance.

Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz

Caitlin Talmadge — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:54:40 -0500

How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.

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Peace with Syria?

Chuck Freilich — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 12:02:57 -0500

"...While it is clear that withdrawal is the price of peace, disagreement over the Golan's precise delineation is what led to the talks' failure in the past. Syria demands a return to the 1967 lines, Israel to the 1923 mandatory border.

Under the 1923 demarcation, the recognized basis for all Mideast negotiations, the Golan ends just meters east of the Jordan River and Sea of Galilee. Between 1948 and 1967, however, Syria encroached upon Israeli territory, with two enclaves along the Jordan and a strip on the lake’s northeastern shore. The 1967 lines would thus give Syria more than 100% of the internationally recognized Golan, a claim to the lake's water and end full Israeli access around it...."

Pakistan Needs More Democracy to Transcend Musharraf

Hassan Abbas — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:17:05 -0500

"Following its recent free elections, Pakistan is rebounding politically. But the euphoria that came with the end of the Musharraf era is wearing off, as the new government faces stark choices. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy is not new to the 60-year-old state, but ethnic cleavages, weak institutions, and religious extremism in the North are perennially destabilizing. And, while the new government settles in and establishes its priorities, the West, especially the United States, must reassess the impact of its past dealings with Pakistan...."

The Path through Pakistan to a Shorter War on Terror

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:00:04 -0500

In the 'epicenter of terrorism,' democracy will benefit from an ease in US military pressure.

Who Will Have the Courage to Save Zimbabwe?

Robert Rotberg — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 09:23:31 -0500

June 25, 2008

AFTER Idi Amin terrorized and killed his own Ugandans throughout the 1970s, President Julius Nyerere of neighboring Tanzania finally sent his army across the border to end the mayhem and restore stability. Who will now do the same for beleaguered Zimbabwe?

Separatism's Final Country

Richard N. Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 12:54:01 -0500

"Muller argues that ethnonationalism is the wave of the future and will result in more and more independent states, but this is not likely. One of the most destabilizing ideas throughout human history has been that every separately defined cultural unit should have its own state. Endless disruption and political introversion would follow an attempt to realize such a goal. Woodrow Wilson gave an impetus to further state creation when he argued for "national self-determination" as a means of preventing more nationalist conflict, which he believed was a cause of World War I...."

Attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan Highlight Instability

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:00:42 -0500

June 9, 2008

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed for The News Hour with Jim Lehrer on June 9, 2008 regarding instability along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Why Islam Lies at the Heart of Iraq's Civil War

Monica Duffy Toft — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:36:05 -0500

"...[N]ot until 2007 did the Pentagon acknowledge that Iraqi sectarian violence had crossed a threshold to become a civil war.

But policymakers still haven't come to terms with the implications of that fact. If they did, they'd see that a wisely executed withdrawal of US-led forces could well be the surest path to peace. That's because withdrawal is likely to transform the fighting in Iraq into a defensive struggle for power in a nation-state, as opposed to an offensive battle rooted in religion."

Israel's Friends and the Path to Peace

John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 20 May 2008 20:39:33 -0500

This letter was written in response to Jeffrey Goldberg's op-ed, "Israel's 'American Problem' " which was published on May 18, 2008.

Turkmenistan under Niyazov and Berdymukhammedov

Robert Rotberg — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:43:58 -0500

May 6, 2008

A monument of Turkmenistan’s former autocratic ruler, Saparmurat Niyazov, will be removed from the center of the country’s capital, the New York Times reported on Monday, May 5, 2008. The removal was ordered by Turkmenistan’s current president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. What seems to be a symbolic move away from the repression that has plagued Turkmenistan is more likely the removal of one autocratic legacy to make room for another.

Assessing Repression in Syria

Robert Rotberg — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:40:06 -0500

May 6, 2008

Even as evidence mounts pointing to a partnership between Syria and North Korea in the construction of a Syrian nuclear reactor, Syria and North Korea continue to deny the allegations, leading the U.S. to condemn both countries’ secrecy.

U.S. Worry Grows over Pakistan's Tribal Peace Deal

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:34:47 -0500

May 6, 2008

Jackie Northam of NPR interviews Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, regarding the new Pakistani government's negotiations with militants tied to al Qaeda.

Burma: Poster Child for Entrenched Repression

Robert Rotberg — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:32:18 -0500

May 6, 2008

In late April, President Bush declared that the upcoming elections in Burma would not be “free, fair, or credible” and that the U.S. would impose further sanctions on the state-owned business sector, in order to increase pressure on the ruling junta.

Winning the African Prize for Repression: Zimbabwe

Robert Rotberg — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:27:39 -0500

May 6, 2008

After much delay, the “official” presidential election results in Zimbabwe were finally announced last week (May 2, 2008). While opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, won the majority vote (47.9% to Robert Mugabe’s 43.2%), because the 50% minimum that is needed to win outright was not reached, a run-off will take place. This second round leaves Zimbabweans and the international community certain that Robert Mugabe will continue his use of intimidation, force, and violence to secure his re-election.

Partitioning to Peace: Sovereignty, Demography, and Ethnic Civil Wars

Carter Johnson — Fri, 02 May 2008 13:59:52 -0500

Partitioning states along ethnic lines is a debatable solution to solving ethnic civil wars. Advocates argue that partition offers the best chance for lasting peace, while opponents claim that it takes a huge toll on the populations involved and that its effectiveness has yet to be proven. The evidence suggests that only partitions that completely separate the warring groups succeed in creating peaceful states. Policymakers should thus consider partition as an option only where populations are already separated or where population transfers can be accomplished safely. Partitioning Kosovo into distinct ethnic districts could lead to lasting peace, whereas partitioning Iraq would most likely increase human suffering and violence.

Postconflict Resolution in Africa: Flawed Ideas about Failed States

Pierre Englebert and Denis M. Tull — Fri, 02 May 2008 13:53:01 -0500

Africa has the highest percentage of failed states in the world, making it a top priority for external donors engaged in state reconstruction. Yet such efforts have a poor record of success because of three flawed assumptions shared by many donors: first, Western state institutions can be transferred to Africa; second, donors and African leaders have the same understanding of failure and reconstruction; and third, donors are capable of rebuilding Africa states. In contrast, Uganda and Somaliland have succeeded in rebuilding and without external assistance. This success suggests that donors should shift their efforts toward encouraging indigenous state-building efforts and constructive bargaining between local groups and the governments of failed African states.

No Sign until the Burst of Fire: Understanding the Pakistan-Afghanistan Frontier

Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason — Fri, 02 May 2008 11:28:42 -0500

The portion of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area dominated by Pashtun tribes poses the greatest challenge to U.S. national security interests. Here, extremist groups such as the Taliban and al-Qaida continue to enjoy safe haven. The Pashtun, whose tribal structures have been subverted since the 1970s, represent a unique cultural challenge that the U.S. foreign policy establishment has failed to appreciate. To reverse the trend of radicalization in this area, the United States and the Afghan government must strengthen and rebuild the Pashtuns’ tribal structures while reducing the external pressures on them. Maintaining the current policy of extending the central government into this region will only foment insurgency among a proto-insurgent people.

International Security Program "Paths to Violence" Research Workshop

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 18:58:43 -0500

The International Security Program (ISP) at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs hosted a research workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 25, 2008. Workshop organizers Erica Chenoweth (ISP) and Adria Lawrence (ISP/Intrastate Conflict Program) brought together leading scholars to explore the conditions under which non-state actors resort to violence and the various strategies state actors use to address aggrieved populations. Workshop participants addressed issues such as why the use of violence varies among non-state actors, how the decision to use violence affects strategic outcomes of internal and international conflicts, and how states arrive at decisions to accommodate, assimilate, or ethnically cleanse minority groups. Participants received feedback on original research papers prepared in advance of the workshop. The final drafts of the papers will be compiled into an edited volume, which will be submitted for review in fall 2008.

Two Causes of Arab Political Incoherence

Rami Khouri — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 15:19:43 -0500

April 23, 2008

How much are the Arabs responsible for their own political dysfunction, national fragmentation and rampant violence, and how much of their troubles can be blamed on foreign interference and military interventions in the region? Two recent articles in quality American journals highlight how low-class Arab politics that are widely dissatisfying to their own citizens can reflect both indigenous autocracy and foreign mischief-making.

Separating Tibet and the Olympics

Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 00:08:06 -0500

"Some people believe it is fair to vent their grievances with China, but don't see any unfairness in depriving China and its people of the dream to host the Games. In both 1936 and 1948, Chinese Olympian athletes had to detour through Asia to raise fund for their trips by performing in competitions. They ended up exhausted and defeated in the Olympics. It would be equally unfair to deprive the world's athletes of their dreams and the chance to compete in the most important global athletic competition."

Pakistan PM Has Good Credentials, Limited Authority

Hassan Abbas — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 12:00:38 -0500

"Gilani is leader of a coalition government with a strong mandate but facing difficult problems. It is also committed to policies that could cause turbulence, particularly reinstating judges deposed by President Pervez Musharraf. Gilani's position is further complicated by political circumstances, with the leaders of the dominant parties in the ruling coalition directing policy from outside parliament."

Transformational Leaders Are Not Always Better

Joseph S. Nye — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 22:59:13 -0500

"More than two centuries ago, the newly independent American colonists had a transformational leader in George Washington. Nonetheless, they invented a very different type of institutional leadership when James Madison and other transactional leaders negotiated the Constitution and later explained it in the Federalist Papers."

Politics and Power in Zimbabwe

Robert Rotberg — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 13:14:32 -0500

March 26, 2008

THIS WEEKEND President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is expected once again to rig elections in order to hold onto power while neighboring Botswana, Africa's oasis of peace and good governance, will celebrate the retirement of President Festus Mogae after two productive terms. The contrast between Botswana and Zimbabwe could not be more stark, or more illustrative of good and evil in Africa.

Reform of Pakistan's Intelligence Services

Hassan Abbas — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 19:37:37 -0500

"The primary mission of intelligence services in a modern democratic state is to collect, analyze, evaluate, and pass on foreign intelligence to the government to assist it in making decisions related to national security. Their standard task also includes producing a range of studies that cover virtually any topic of interest to national-security policymakers. Depending on the resources, they use electronic means as well as human sources and, if necessary, undertake covert actions at the direction of the chief executive. A covert action is defined as an act to influence political, economic or military conditions abroad, while keeping in view some ethical considerations. Counter-intelligence operations mainly work to guard against espionage from foreign intelligence agencies in the country. They are also expected to effectively protect the secrets of its sources and methods. The role of intelligence services is to only report information and analysis and not to make policy recommendations."

Six Ways Not to Deal with Hamas

Chuck Freilich — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 21:07:28 -0500

How do you stop a foe whose tolerance for pain exceeds your willingness to inflict it?

Senior Fellow Chuck Freilich examines each of the alternatives.

Chávez Rattles His Saber

Gustavo Flores-Macías and Sarah Kreps — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 16:12:06 -0600

"So far, the United States has refrained from responding to Chávez's antagonistic rhetoric. But the U.S. should be prepared for a more active approach if events escalate. The region might object to a direct U.S. military intervention, but Washington might consider quietly stepping up the supply of aid, training and equipment to Colombia."

Police Reforms: Agenda of Change

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 20:24:58 -0600

"...Besides leading to bad governance and a deplorable law and order situation in the country, police failures also have compounded the threat of religious extremism and terrorism. Poor data collection on crime and criminals and inadequate analytical capabilities hamper effective law enforcement. In many instances, banned militant organisations continued with their publications and in some cases wanted criminals, and terrorists changed their party affiliations (hurriedly joining groups that were not under government scrutiny after theirs were banned) and the police remained clueless. Here the police was also handicapped as many militant groups were producing "freedom fighters" for Kashmir and Afghanistan and had working relations with the intelligences services, and hence police officials were reluctant to go after some of these elements thinking that they might be the assets of some "other state institution." Things are reported to be progressively changing in this sphere lately, but the serious challenge remains...."