Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Conflict and Conflict Resolution

When Arab States and Citizens Differ on Palestine

Rami Khouri — Sat, 18 May 2013 15:56:07 -0500

May 18, 2013

"Tensions between the Arab state and its citizens will expand in the years ahead, as the fundamental contradictions of Arab state-building, national identity, regional relations, the Arabism-Zionism confrontation, and international alliances all clash visibly. Jordan and Egypt provide the clearest examples because of their peace treaties with Israel, but they are not unique. Most other Arab states suffer similar contradictions and stresses, especially Levantine and Gulf states that must satisfy American-Israeli demands that contradict the sentiments of many of those Arab states’ own citizens."

David Hamburg on Giving Peace a Chance

James F. Smith — Thu, 16 May 2013 15:41:18 -0500

May 16, 2013

When Dr. David A. Hamburg led the Carnegie Corporation of New York in the 1980s and ‘90s, he drew on his roots as a physician to foster projects and research that advanced a simply stated goal: “the prevention of rotten outcomes.”

Now in his late 80s, Hamburg is still putting his medical instincts to work. He is discovering new ways to use early-prevention methods to avoid deadly conflict and enable healthy human development.

Hamburg spoke at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs on May 3 about his forthcoming book, Give Peace a Chance. His son and co-author, filmmaker Eric Hamburg, joined him at the event, along with two Harvard friends, Law School Dean Martha Minow and Belfer Center Director Graham Allison.

New Rules of the Evolving Arab Order

Rami Khouri — Tue, 14 May 2013 09:32:43 -0500

May 14, 2013

The uprisings that erupted across the region as of December 2010 have been the single most important sign of a region-wide malaise that was gnawing at the core of Arab countries for decades, signaled in its earlier stages in the 1980s-90s by the rise of mass Islamist movements that reflected widespread citizen discontent and challenged autocratic governments. The evolving regional order is now entering its most dynamic stage of change, with every component element transforming into something new.

Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2013

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:20:44 -0500

The Summer 2013 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s expanding work on complex cybersecurity issues and Middle East challenges, offers reflections on the role of the U.S. in Iraq, and spotlights work being done by the Center and its affiliates on environment and energy issues.

Afghanistan’s Future Holds Promise, Danger, Experts Agree

James F. Smith — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:15:55 -0500

"Even as they acknowledged that potential dangers loom in Afghanistan over the next two years, experts at a Harvard conference pointed to some encouraging signs. One example: the number of schoolchildren has grown from 800,000 in 2001 to nearly nine million today....Speakers from Afghanistan and the West recognized that violence persists and problems such as endemic corruption still plague the country....But they took solace from the work of Afghans themselves in building a credible national military force that has increasingly taken on the brunt of combat duties"

Nussaibah Younis: Foreign Policies of Weak States Matter

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:10:43 -0500

The invasion of Iraq prompted a deluge of work written on the country from a U.S. perspective, but Nussaibah Younis, a fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program, wants people to start considering Iraq as an actor in its own right. While at the Center, Younis is working on a project that seeks to understand internal Iraqi foreign policymaking dynamics since 2003.

Marisa Porges’ Journey from Naval Flight Officer to Counterterror Expert

Wesley Nord — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:09:02 -0500

"Belfer Center Fellow Marisa Porges’ career has already spanned the worlds of academia and policymaking, the government and the military. As an undergraduate at Harvard, Porges earned honors with a degree in geophysics and, during senior year, commanded her Navy Reserve Officer Training Corps unit. After graduation, she commissioned as a naval flight officer in the U.S. Navy and managed the weapons systems aboard EA-6B Prowlers, a carrier-based electronic warfare jet.... [now] as a doctoral candidate in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London and a research fellow with the Belfer Center’s International Security Program, she now combines scholarship and practice."

International Security Journal Highlights

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:01:28 -0500

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. The journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press.

Podcast: Syria's "Endless" Nightmare: Humanitarian and Political Consequences

Mon, 13 May 2013 08:47:13 -0500

May 13, 2013

On Monday, May 6, the Middle East Initiative hosted a panel discussion addressing the most pressing concerns in the deepening, unabated Syrian crisis that has plagued the country since March of 2011. Moderated by Hilary Rantisi, Director of the Middle East Initiative, the panelists addressed the political, economic and humanitarian consequences of the violence in Syria, as well as the responses and responsibilities of the global community.

North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Future Strategy and Doctrine

Terence Roehrig — Fri, 10 May 2013 14:46:55 -0500

A nuclear North Korea makes it crucial that all countries in Northeast Asia work hard at maintaining a stable security environment that avoids the dangers of a crisis while encouraging North Korea to adopt a nuclear strategy that retains its "no first use" pledge, a strong command and control system, and a stable nuclear weapons posture. Given its relationship with North Korea, China is best positioned to encourage DPRK leaders in these directions.

China Addresses the Middle East

Rami Khouri — Fri, 10 May 2013 13:02:44 -0500

May 10, 2013

The Israeli settlement news is nothing new, but the actions of the three big powers are new and noteworthy. The American, Russian and Chinese initiatives to resolve the Arab-Israeli and Syrian conflicts are as laudatory as they are difficult to achieve, though efforts like this open up new possibilities for collaborative diplomacy through the UN Security Council, which is usually critical for success.

Options for Action in Syria

Chuck Freilich — Thu, 09 May 2013 19:42:51 -0500

"...[E]ven the limited use of chemical weapons violates a fundamental international norm and an American failure to respond would create another North Korea–like precedent that would be a source of deep encouragement for the Assads of the world: WMD buys even a heinous regime immunity from international retaliation. Iran is no doubt watching in the wings, deriving its own conclusions regarding what the U.S. defines as unacceptable behavior."

A Beginning for Syria Talks

David Ignatius — Thu, 09 May 2013 15:38:30 -0500

"It shouldn’t have been this hard, but Secretary of State John Kerry has finally gotten Russia to back the peace plan on Syria that it endorsed in principle last June. This isn’t a breakthrough, but at least it’s a beginning.

What the United States and Russia seem to have realized is that a negotiated transition of power in Syria is better than a fight to the death, which would destabilize the region. That’s a wise judgment, but it’s not clear that it’s shared by either the Alawite clique backing President Bashar al-Assad or the Sunni jihadists who are the backbone of the opposition."

Born Yesterday

Charles G. Cogan — Wed, 08 May 2013 19:53:59 -0500

"...[T]here are many downsides to what has happened in Afghanistan. In my view, we should have stopped hostilities in Afghanistan when bin Laden and his al-Qaeda followers escaped into Pakistan in late 2001. But it is now more than 11 years later and way past time to get out."

The Real Scare in Syria is Not Chemical Weapons

Rami Khouri — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:21:34 -0500

May 7, 2013

"One of my rules of thumb of observing which way the wind blows in the Middle East is now in active operative mode: When Hezbollah and Israel both are actively fighting in the same third country, and Iran and the United States are both actively warning about their determination to act to protect their allies and their interests in that same third country, it is time to make another pot of coffee and make sure you have plenty of fresh batteries at home for your transistor radio."

Ellis Goldberg: "Sectarian Violence: The Third Rail of Egyptian Politics" Podcast

Tue, 07 May 2013 10:56:56 -0500

May 7, 2013

The Middle East Initiative hosted Professor Ellis Goldberg for a lecture on May 1, 2013 to discuss sectarian violence in Egypt. Professor Goldberg is currently the Kuwait Foundation Visiting Scholar at the Middle East Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School, and is a professor of political science at the University of Washington.

Why Obama Remains Cautious About Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:35:43 -0500

The Obama administration has been cautious in its response to the evidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons in part because it still hopes to convince Russia to join in an internationally supported move for a political transition from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Frustrated by Obama’s Caution on Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:30:49 -0500

"Gen. Salim Idriss, the commander of rebel forces in Syria, complained late Tuesday that President Obama’s desire “to wait and wait for more evidence” that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons is encouraging their continued use — and that these attacks will only stop if the United States and its allies impose a no-fly zone."

Obama Bets Big on Syrian Rebel Leader

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:26:09 -0500

"The Obama administration is placing a large bet on the ability of a Syrian former professor of military engineering to build a coherent rebel army that can defeat the regime of Bashar al-Assad, combat Islamic radicals and help build a stable new Syria."

Are Chechen Immigrants a 'Threat'?

Simon Saradzhyan — Thu, 02 May 2013 09:09:38 -0500

“There are still many questions left unanswered as America seeks to understand how the Tsarnaev brothers could have inflicted harm on the innocent people of the country that has granted them shelter, food and education.But there is one question that should not be asked at all, and that is whether the horrendous attacks in Boston should prompt the United States and other countries to consider immigrants a security threat just because they belong to a certain ethnic group.”

Why Maliki Must Go

Nussaibah Younis — Thu, 02 May 2013 06:47:22 -0500

"...Mr. Maliki, who took office in 2006, had a successful first term, he has squandered the opportunity to heal the nation in his second term, which began in 2010. He has taken a hard sectarian line on security and political challenges. He has resisted integrating Sunnis into the army. He has accused senior Sunni politicians of being terrorists, hounded them from power and lost the cooperation of the Sunni community. The result: the political bargain that had sustained the fragile Iraqi state broke down."

Obama's leadership challenge on Syria

Nicholas Burns — Wed, 01 May 2013 10:39:56 -0500

The US can no longer afford to stay on the sidelines in Syria, writes Professor Burns in this week's GlobalPost piece. The stakes and consequences are just too high to do otherwise.

Golda to Henry: 'Why Do You Think We Put Them There?'

Charles G. Cogan — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 15:50:28 -0500

"The hope that Israel might backtrack from its untenable policy on the settlements was dashed in the first Obama Administration. According to a new report by an Independent Study Group being published by the Henry L. Stimson Center, it might be a good idea to shift the attention to establishing a border between Israel and a Palestinian State."

The Collapsing Arab State

Nawaf Obaid — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 11:15:47 -0500

The so-called Arab Spring generated a wave of hope among those fighting or advocating for democratization of the Arab world’s authoritarian regimes. Now, following leadership changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, and with a brutal civil war raging in Syria and increasingly fraught conditions in Bahrain, Sudan, Jordan, and Iraq, there is much talk of a major shift – and hope for improvement – in the nature and prospects of the Arab state.

Prince Turki on Saudi Arabia's Role after Arab Awakening

Ramiro Gonzalez Lorca — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 08:48:51 -0500

In a speech for the Belfer Center’s Middle East Initiative, Prince Turki al Faisal laid out Saudi Arabia’s two–pronged security strategy as the Gulf kingdom contends with the fallout from the 2011 Arab uprisings and fast-changing global energy trends. Prince Turki, who directed the Saudi intelligence service for more than two decades and served as ambassador to the United Kingdom and Ireland, and then to the United States, said Saudi foreign policy doctrine is based on two themes: external security and energy security.

The full text as prepared for delivery is attached (pdf).

The Test to Come: Forgiveness and Reconciliation

Rami Khouri — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 08:15:02 -0500

April 27, 2013

Is reconciliation a feasible option for the Arab world that now seems to be moving in the direction of greater domestic intolerance and warfare? We do not know, and only time will tell. The track record of intra-Arab reconciliation has not been very impressive in recent decades, in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain, Sudan and others.

Dealing with North Korea—What Comes Next?

Terence Roehrig — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 10:57:14 -0500

"A military strike against North Korean nuclear facilities would be very dangerous, possibly setting off a chain of events that could wreck the peninsula. South Korea has made absolutely clear that it will retaliate if North Korea initiates some type of provocation but a direct military strike to eliminate its nuclear program is unlikely. Finally, despite some indications of unhappiness with Pyongyang's actions, there are limits to what China is willing to do to exert pressure on North Korea."

Rashid Khalidi: "Brokers of Deceit" Podcast

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 09:57:02 -0500

April 18, 2013

An audio recording of a talk by Rashid Khalidi, Edward Said Professor of Modern Arab Studies at Columbia University, on his new book, Brokers of Deceit: How the U.S. Has Undermined Peace in the Middle East, at MEI on April 10, 2013.

End war, but don’t abandon Afghanistan

Nicholas Burns — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 08:29:09 -0500

Professor Burns shares his key takeaways from the "Future of Afghanistan" conference he co-hosted on April 4-5 at Harvard. Like most wars, this will not be won on the battlefield; rather, it will be brought to an end in a negotiated solution between the Afghan government and the Taliban. He reminds us that the U.S. government has a basic responsibility, moral as well as political, to stay involved as the majority of Afghans wish, but that we should seek greater political and financial support from Afghanistan’s powerful neighbors — Russia, China, India, and Iran.

Two Saints and a Sinner

Ellis Goldberg — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 10:16:48 -0500

"Recently there has been a marked decline in attempts by either the government or private persons to claim that their opponents are foreign agents or elements acting in their interest. This is not because political discourse has become kinder and gentler. It has become notably more intense and it is certainly not limited to debates about policy differences. Striking, however, is how infrequently anyone levies the once-common charge that opponents are not Egyptian...it is too early to say if this is a station on the way to a discourse that is both more civil and more probing or simply two distinct communities that refuse to listen to each other. But it is a significant change."