Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Conflict and Conflict Resolution

Hoping the Next 100 Days Go Better

Chuck Freilich — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:28:12 -0400

"...[I]t was clear from day one that Obama intended to reach out to the Arab world and attempt a breakthrough toward peace. Netanyahu, who professes to 'understand American,' should have done everything in his power to align himself with the new administration's agenda. Instead, his obstinacy led to a glaring crack in relations with the US, a cardinal pillar of Israeli national security, and exposed an unprecedented degree of mutual alienation."

Disorder in the Ranks

Robert Rotberg — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:14:01 -0400

The label "failed" remains a powerful way to describe those states that no longer serve their people. That harsh term sharpens the attention of policymakers and helps single out countries that should be of utmost concern. The threat of such state failure also focuses attention on the soon-to-crumble; it is those countries that need the most external help.

Peace with Honor?

Ivan Arreguin-Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:43:07 -0400

"'Peace with honor.' This was the Nixon administration's euphemism for disengagement from South Vietnam, a place where corruption and incompetence had long doomed any hope of victory; even a victory as modest as the simple negative objective of preserving the political independence of tiny South Vietnam."

A Risky Prospect for Iraq

Monica Duffy Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:21:41 -0400

"As American troops pull back from Iraq's urban areas, a central question is whether Iraq's forces will be able to secure the peace. If history is any guide, Iraq's security forces face a challenging task. Ending civil wars and keeping them ended is not easy. Iraq faces three critical risk factors."

Empowerment Boom or Bust? Assessing Women's Post-Conflict Empowerment Initiatives

Megan Mackenzie — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:47:20 -0400

Over the past decade, the term 'empowerment' has been generously employed and woefully ill-defined. In particular, women's empowerment has been embraced by such a vast number of development actors that it appears to be a unifying mission within development. Despite the boom in women's empowerment initiatives, there remains little critical analysis of the use of empowerment in general, and the perceived success or failures of specific empowerment initiatives. Using the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration process in Sierra Leone as a case study, this paper examines how reintegration was described as a source of empowerment for women. Drawing from interviews and analysis of related policy discourses, it is argued that, rather than representing a radical shift in development approaches towards more inclusive and representative policies, empowerment projects are shaped by neoliberal ideas such as individualism, responsibility and economic order and carry implicit, gendered and disciplining messages about appropriate social behaviour.

Do not count on the Tories winning just yet

Niall Ferguson — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:05:45 -0400

"Most commentators assume that whenever the election happens it will be won by the Conservatives. The Labour party had its worst performance in the recent elections since 1910. As in the 1990s, the electorate is sick of the incumbent party. Just as the Labour party had young, telegenic Tony Blair in 1997, so the Tories today have young, telegenic David Cameron.

Yet this is to overstate the strength of the Conservative position."

Don't Play Nuclear Chicken with a Desperate Pariah

Hui Zhang — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:25:21 -0400

"This game of escalation will go on and on until North Korea gets what it desires most from Washington: a reliable security assurance. Of course, no one likes to yield to dictators. But ultimately, playing chicken with a desperate and nuclear-armed North Korea is too risky to endeavor. The more isolated the North Koreans become, the more likely they will be to use the nuclear card in threatening two hostages: South Korea and Japan. Everyone loses that game"

The Fight for Pakistan's Soul

Hassan Abbas — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 20:54:29 -0400

"...[A] lot depends on the state's capacity to hold the Swat area and re-establish civilian institutions there. And, even if the state succeeds, re-asserting control over Swat will only be the first step. The Taliban is spread throughout the NWFP and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. "Punjabi Taliban" militants from the fighting in Kashmir against India continue to shuttle between the Punjab heartland and the Northwest Territories, posing another serious challenge to government authority."

Bibi Answers Obama

Chuck Freilich — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:29:42 -0400

"In his recent speech to the Muslim world, Obama set a new course for U.S. policy in the region and in so doing challenged Netanyahu to join him in the effort, or risk American ire. Poor Bibi. During his first two months, he caused gratuitous tension with Obama by refusing to explicitly endorse a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and thereby convinced many that Israel, rather than the Palestinians, is the obstacle. Bibi knows that he cannot afford confrontation and that Israel must align itself with any administration."

The False Unity in Zimbabwe

Robert Rotberg — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 09:37:56 -0400

June 13, 2009

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of Zimbabwe, who visited President Obama yesterday, needs all the American support he can get. Although the head of government of an impoverished and beleaguered nation battered by a decade of severe mismanagement and corruption, Tsvangirai is hardly in charge. President Robert Mugabe is still calling too many of the crucial governing shots.

Observations on the Recent United Nations Security Council Resolution on North Korea

William H. Tobey — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 16:16:17 -0400

On June 12, 2009, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1874 in response to recent provocative actions by North Korea, including a second nuclear test. Chinese and Russian support for a new U.N. Security Council resolution that imposes additional sanctions is potentially significant. However, whether China in particular will support tough implementation of the resolution and will take a harder line in its bilateral relations with North Korea remains to be seen, and will ultimately determine the success or failure of efforts to reverse North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

The Two-State Trap in the Mideast

Ehud Eiran and Nir Eisikovits — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 12:00:06 -0400

"...A weak (or even worse, a failed) Palestinian state next to Israel will most likely lead not to the end of violence, but rather to its perpetuation. This is also a dangerous dichotomy, as it does not leave room for failure despite the fact that failure may come. The Palestinian national movement is deeply divided, and the Israeli public fears — based on the lessons of the withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza — that leaving the West Bank would compromise its security. The logical conclusion from presenting a binary map for the future — two states or war — when a two-state option is highly unlikely, is that the proposed frame has a great potential to destabilize the situation, rather than calm it.

Obama Should Think Chicago

Rami Khouri — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:04:25 -0400

Obama should focus on three significant issues: 1- the Arab-Israeli conflict, 2- the "resistance front" headed by Syria, Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas, and 3- the lack of democratic, rule-of-law-based governance systems in most Arab countries. And he should tell us what America wants to do about these three issues.

The Changing Face of Israel

Richard Cincotta and Eric Kaufmann — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 22:12:49 -0400

"...Ultra-Orthodox rabbis control access to marriage, conversion, and burial, effectively determining the status of non-haredi private lives across the varied Jewish community. In addition, ultra-Orthodox activists flex their political muscle by censoring advertising and movies, organizing consumer boycotts, mounting mass demonstrations, and harassing secular Jews who violate the Sabbath. Once peace-process-disinterested members of various coalition governments, ultra-Orthodox politicians now rank among the most hawkish in the Knesset, defending haredi settlements on the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. Although less politically cohesive, Israeli Arab voters favor the flip side of the political spectrum, which makes moderate Israelis wonder how their democracy might function should these two groups grow to dominate the electorate."

The Significance of the Settlements

Rami Khouri — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:00:27 -0400

The Obama administration has put steel into American insistence that illegal Israeli settlements must be halted. It is the important kick start to progress towards peace making.

North Korea won't fire nuke ... but could sell one to Osama

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 May 2009 10:16:33 -0400

"The challenge for President Obama, Prime Minister Brown, members of the UN Security Council and the international community is to convince Kim Jong-il that he faces disastrous consequences."

Q&A with Rory Stewart

Rory Stewart — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:07:03 -0400

Rory Stewart is the Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors. A former officer in the British Army and deputy governate coordinator with the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, Stewart spent two years walking 6,000 miles across Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Nepal - a journey he describes in his critically acclaimed book The Places in Between.

Newsmakers

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:04:56 -0400

Belfer Center Newsmakers.

Center Scholars Suggest Way Ahead for U.S. in Afghanistan, Pakistan

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:00:37 -0400

"We have a clear and focused goal to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future," President Barack Obama said in a statement on March 27, 2009. Several members of the Belfer Center community comment on President Obama's plan.

India's New Ruling Caste

Appu Soman — Thu, 21 May 2009 15:22:26 -0400

"The opportunity for personal gains through public office has made electoral politics an automatic career choice for Indian politicians' progeny. Record numbers of sons and daughters of political leaders and millionaires (and people with criminal backgrounds) contested this election. We are seeing the formation of a new Indian caste — a caste of rulers different from India's traditional Kshatriya caste — before our very eyes."

Securitization and Desecuritization: Female Soldiers and the Reconstruction of Women in Post-Conflict Sierra Leone

Megan Mackenzie — Tue, 19 May 2009 15:56:03 -0400

This article focuses on the construction of "soldier" and "victim" by post-conflict programs in Sierra Leone. Focusing on the absence of individual testimonies and interviews that inform representations of women and girls post-conflict, this article demonstrates that the ideal of the female war victim has limited the ways in which female combatants are addressed by disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) programs in Sierra Leone. It is argued that titles given to female soldiers such as "females associated with the war," "dependents," or "camp followers" reveal the reluctance of reintegration agencies to identify females who participated in war as soldiers. In addition, I argue that men and masculinity are securitized post-conflict while women—even when they act in highly securitized roles such as soldiers—are desecuritized and, in effect, de-emphasized in post-conflict policy making. The impact of this categorization has been that the reintegration process for men has been securitized, or emphasized as an essential element of the transition from war to peace. In contrast, the reintegration process for females has been deemed a social concern and has been moralized as a return to normal.

A Global Crossroads: A World without Borders, or a Star Wars Shield?

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Tue, 19 May 2009 13:05:20 -0400

May 19, 2009

A growing number of intractable problems can no longer be solved by the existing institutions, mechanisms and approaches of a bygone age. It is time to forge a collective security consciousness that will enable us to develop unprecedented ways of working together to solve shared problems.

What are They Smoking?

Chuck Freilich — Thu, 14 May 2009 01:55:41 -0400

"The new government in Israel, presumably by way of creating a new obstacle that it can concede and grant to US President Barack Obama as a "concession", has refused to endorse a two-state solution, though this is clearly the only viable option for preserving a Jewish and democratic Israel. By convincing the world that it is Israel—which favored a two-state solution in 1936, 1947, Camp David 2000 and most recently under Olmert—not the Palestinians, which objects to this, Netanyahu has caused severe damage to Israel's image. Moreover, his obstinacy has played into the hands of those who wish to create a fallacious and dangerous linkage between the peace process and the Iranian nuclear program, the last thing Israel should want."

Peacemaking Needs Two Sides

Rami Khouri — Wed, 13 May 2009 10:35:37 -0400

"The Arab world is once again correctly expressing its sincerity in negotiating a comprehensive peace agreement with Israel. But it should not repeat the mistakes of the past -- making continuous concessions before getting back concessions in return."

Pakistan Can Defy the Odds: How to Rescue a Failing State

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 12 May 2009 12:41:51 -0400

"Is Pakistan collapsing? How far are the Taliban from Islamabad? Can al-Qaeda grab the country's nuclear weapons? These are the types of questions raised every day by the American media, academia and policy circles. And these are critical issues, given the nature of the evolving crisis in Pakistan. The approximately two dozen suicide bombings in 2009 so far, 66 in 2008, and 61 in 2007, all of which have targeted armed forces personnel, police, politicians, and ordinary people not only in the country's turbulent northwest but also in its major urban centers, indicate the seriousness of the threat. A major ammunition factory area located close to some very sensitive nuclear installations in Wah (Punjab) was targeted by two suicide bombers in August 2008, an act that sent shudders across the country's security establishment...."

The Fruits of Peace and the Obama Blender

Rami Khouri — Wed, 06 May 2009 11:27:19 -0400

It is not clear how the Obama administration will address its strong ally, Israel -- nor how the greater Arab world will support US facilitation of a Middle East peace agreement. But the basic approach stops the settlements and the violence.

Improving India's Counterterrorism Policy after Mumbai

Paul Staniland — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 19:28:33 -0400

"All of these pathologies were evident in the failure to prevent or appropriately respond to the Mumbai attacks. There was in fact significant intelligence suggesting a seaborne terrorist attack was likely, and even that prominent sites such as the Taj Hotel would be targeted. This information, however, was ignored by several key bureaucratic actors—including the Coast Guard and the Maharashtra state director-general of police—because it was deemed unactionable. Others, such as the Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad, at least attempted some kind of preparation. The differences in readiness highlight the extent of fragmentation among the security apparatus. Even when Mumbai police tried to take preventive action, they lacked the manpower to sustain increased security at the hotels. Once the attack occurred, the security forces did not have sufficient night-vision equipment, heavy weaponry, or information about the attack sites, leading to a long response time and the emergence of a disastrous siege...."

Defining the Punjabi Taliban Network

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 16:36:35 -0400

"The Punjabi Taliban network is a loose conglomeration of members of banned militant groups of Punjabi origin—sectarian as well as those focused on the conflict in Kashmir—that have developed strong connections with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Afghan Taliban and other militant groups based in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). They shuttle between FATA and the rest of Pakistan, providing logistical support to FATA- and Afghan-based militants to conduct terrorist operations deep inside Pakistan. Between March 2005 and March 2007 alone, for example, about 2,000 militants from southern and northern Punjab Province reportedly moved to South Waziristan and started different businesses in an effort to create logistical support networks. Given their knowledge about Punjabi cities and security structure, they have proved to be valuable partners for the TTP as it targets cities in Punjab, such as Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad...."

Police & Law Enforcement Reform in Pakistan: Crucial for Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Success

Hassan Abbas — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 21:07:37 -0400

"The police infrastructure is one of Pakistan's most poorly managed organizations. It is aptly described as ill-equipped, poorly trained, deeply politicized, and chronically corrupt. It has performed well in certain operations; overall, however, that is a rare phenomenon. Arguably, the primary reason for this state of affairs is the government's persistent failure to invest in law enforcement reform and modernization. It is ironic that despite frequent internal crises since its inception in 1947, ranging from ethnic confrontations and sectarian battles to a sharp rise in criminal activity and growing insurgencies, both political and military policymakers have never given this sector top priority. Hence, poor police performance in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency is not surprising. The fact that the police successfully challenged some militant religious groups in Punjab and tackled an insurgency-like situation in Karachi in the late 1990s shows that they do have the potential to deliver the desired results when political support is present and resources are provided...."

Grounds for Optimism over Middle East Peace

Azeem Ibrahim — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 23:49:47 -0400

"...Israeli hawks have historically been better at moving towards peace than doves. Begin made peace with Egypt, Sharon left Gaza, Barak — a Labour ex-military hawk — left Lebanon, and Netanyahu gave Palestinians control of Hebron and parts of the West Bank to the Palestinians.

This time round, Netanyahu says he will personally oversee a government committee to improve the West Bank economy. If it works, and Palestinians in the West Bank feel the improvement, then Fatah could come out of this year's likely Palestinian legislative elections with an increased majority, strengthening the moderate Palestinian leadership, and so improving its ability to actually implement any negotiated agreement it might make...."