Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Eastern Europe

Hot Off the Presses

Susan M. Lynch — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:03:27 -0500

A survey of recent books by Belfer Center affiliates.

Europe’s Work is Far From Over

Lawrence Summers — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 10:02:39 -0500

March 18, 2013

"Europe’s economic situation is viewed with far less concern than was the case six, 12 or 18 months ago. Policymakers in Europe far prefer engaging the United States on a possible trade and investment agreement to more discussion on financial stability and growth. However, misplaced confidence can be dangerous if it reduces pressure for necessary policy adjustments," warns Lawrence Summers in an op-ed for the Washington Post.

Turkey's Regional Role: Public Attitudes in the Middle East

Thu, 28 Feb 2013 09:37:37 -0600

February 28, 2013

Audio recording of the February 14th, 2013 panel with the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) at the Middle East Initiative.

A Way Forward on Nuclear Disarmament

Sven-Eric Fikenscher — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 10:12:16 -0600

"Rather than continuing to spend billions of taxpayer dollars on deploying an all-encompassing system of highly doubtful effectiveness that threatens to seriously undermine Washington's nuclear security and disarmament agenda, the Obama administration should shelve the plans for deploying the fourth phase in Europe and engage Russia in joint talks."

What's the Most Critical and Under-appreciated Issue in International Security? World Peace

Scott Moore — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 09:12:43 -0600

"...[I]t is clear that the international community possessed neither the analytic tools nor the institutional capabilities to deal with a world order in which ethno-religious groups, and not nation-states, were the primary operative actors. Which brings us back to the question: what if organized state violence and warfare is the exception rather than the rule in international security?"

High-Risk, High-Reward: Will Obama Seek a Free-Trade Pact With Europe?

Ben Heineman — Tue, 11 Dec 2012 15:09:04 -0600

Just after the New Year, President Obama will have to decide whether to take a dramatic, high-stakes gamble on a very unsexy topic: a U.S.-EU free trade agreement. It will be one of the key high-risk, high-reward choices of his second term, writes Ben Heineman.

A free-trade agreement with Europe?

David Ignatius — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 14:25:25 -0600

At a recent meeting of German business and foreign-policy leaders, one participant summed up an anxiety that’s almost palpable here: “Europeans have a sense of being left alone. You Americans don’t understand how much we need you.”

Turning Points

Niall Ferguson — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 09:10:02 -0600

We yearn for turning points, writes Niall Ferguson. "Just as economists have predicted nine out of the last five recessions, so journalists have surely reported nine out of the last five revolutions. Every election is hailed as epoch-making. Every president is expected to have a new foreign policy 'doctrine.' A minor redesign of a cellular phone is hailed by the devotees of the Apple cult as a 'paradigm shift.'"

US Should Stay Out of Israeli-Palestinian Peace Efforts, for Now

Chuck Freilich — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 20:24:26 -0600

"Some believe that President Obama should make use of his second term to renew efforts to promote the peace process, as have all of his predecessors. Honorable sentiments aside, he should not, at least not now; the last thing Israelis and Palestinians need is another failed peace initiative. Both already despair of the prospects of peace, and the last thing the US needs is to squander its political capital in the Middle East once again."

Why Europe Deserved the Peace Prize

Pierpaolo Barbieri — Sat, 13 Oct 2012 22:41:28 -0500

"With all its imperfections, Europe today is the largest single market in the world, featuring effective anti-trust regulations, curtailing economic nationalism, and promoting free trade agreements with counties as far away as Asia and Latin America. New potential members are eager to join, from booming Turkey to crisis-ridden Iceland. Despite all the talk of stalling, Turkish membership will eventually come to pass."

Georgia’s Rowdy Election Campaign

David Ignatius — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 15:25:29 -0500

Washington Post columnist, David Ignatius, examines the upcoming election in Georgia and the Georgian government under current President Mikheil Saakashvili.

At 50, the Cuban Missile Crisis as Guide

Graham Allison — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 08:52:15 -0500

Fifty years ago, the Cuban missile crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear disaster. During the standoff, President John F. Kennedy thought the chance of escalation to war was “between 1 in 3 and even,” and what we have learned in later decades has done nothing to lengthen those odds. Such a conflict might have led to the deaths of 100 million Americans and over 100 million Russians.

NATO: When I'm Sixty-Four

Nicholas Burns and David Manning — Thu, 17 May 2012 11:13:24 -0500

Nicholas R. Burns and David Manning, former ambassadors to NATO from their respective countries, respond to the question of whether NATO is still needed. They write: “Will you still need me when I’m sixty-four?” sang the Beatles. NATO is now in its 64th year, and in our view the answer is an unequivocal yes. The alliance still underwrites our security and underpins our prosperity. It gives us a global voice that no member state would enjoy individually. And if “it’s good to talk” in a dangerous world, there is no better trans-Atlantic forum.

Keeper of the Nuclear Conscience: The Life and Work of Joseph Rotblat

Andrew Brown — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 20:40:57 -0500

Andrew Brown's biography sets out a life whose work poses deep and important questions about science and society. This compelling account draws on full access to Rotblat's archives and presents the full scope of his life: his childhood overcoming poverty and anti-Semitism, his efforts to become a scientist in Warsaw, his work on Britain's nuclear programme, his lifelong dedication to peaceful causes, and his determination to uphold the ethical application of science. Ultimately, we discover a great man whose profound conscience shaped his life and work, and the legacy he leaves today.

Duties for Internet Service Providers

Melissa Hathaway and John E. Savage — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 18:58:03 -0500

In today's interconnected world, the Internet is no longer a tool. Rather, it is a service that helps generate income and employment, provides access to business and information, enables e-learning, and facilitates government activities. It is an essential service that has been integrated into every part of our society. Our experience begins when an Internet Service Provider (ISP) uses fixed telephony (plain old telephone service), mobile-cellular telephony, or fixed fiber-optic or broadband service to connect us to the global network. From that moment on, the ISP shoulders the responsibility for the instantaneous, reliable, and secure movement of our data over the Internet.

Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment

Tue, 13 Mar 2012 17:36:43 -0500

"A successful international climate policy framework will have to meet two conditions, build a coalition of countries that is potentially effective and give each member country sufficient incentives to join and remain in this coalition. Such coalition should be capable of delivering ambitious emission reduction even if some countries do not take mitigation action. In addition, it should meet the target without exceedingly high mitigation costs and deliver a net benefit to member countries as a whole. The novel contribution of this paper is mostly methodological, but it also adds a better qualification of well-known results that are policy relevant."

Reinventing Europe

Richard N. Rosecrance — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 14:27:11 -0600

"When Jean Monnet proposed the first integrative steps for Europe to take, he was thinking of creating a powerful economic instrumentality that would contend on equal terms with the then superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. Now, if Europe and America pursue the closer economic union that Angela Merkel envisions, Europe can think of a new united West which can deal on equal terms with a rising but disunited East."

The Euro Zone's Double Failure

Martin Feldstein — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 12:03:13 -0600

Martin Feldstetin, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, weighs in on the euro's swift descent.

A Rethink for Europe

Juliette Kayyem — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 09:33:36 -0600

"Initially, with Europe exhausted by two world wars, fascism, totalitarianism, and the threat of communism, the EU helped to keep the peace. While combining the coal and steel communities in Germany and France served economic interests, the treaty that brought them together was always about more than dollars and cents. After all, no war could be fought, and no army could be armed, without independent access to mines and steel. Continental Europe tied its own hands to avoid slaughter in the future."

The End of the American Era

Stephen M. Walt — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 15:28:21 -0500

"...[T]he biggest challenge the United States faces today is not a looming great-power rival; it is the triple whammy of accumulated debt, eroding infrastructure and a sluggish economy. The only way to have the world's most capable military forces both now and into the future is to have the world's most advanced economy, and that means having better schools, the best universities, a scientific establishment that is second to none, and a national infrastructure that enhances productivity and dazzles those who visit from abroad. These things all cost money, of course, but they would do far more to safeguard our long-term security than spending a lot of blood and treasure determining who should run Afghanistan, Kosovo, South Sudan, Libya, Yemen or any number of other strategic backwaters."

South East and Eastern European Countries EU Accession Quandary?

Amy Verdun, Chiara Ruffa and Gabriela E Chira — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 12:41:26 -0500

Amy Verdun and Chiara Ruffa are the guest editors of Comparative European Politics' special issue: South East and Eastern European Countries EU Accession Quandary?

NATO on the brink

Nicholas Burns, William Cohen and George Robertson — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 10:25:56 -0500

July 12, 2011

Then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates traveled to Brussels in June, where he warned European allies of the “dwindling … patience in the U.S. Congress” with NATO and declared that if allies did not get serious about meeting their NATO responsibilities they could soon find that American leaders “may not consider the return on America’s investment in NATO worth the cost.”

Breaking the Stalemate of Collective Insecurity in Europe

Simon Saradzhyan — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 17:07:26 -0500

When it comes to the divisive issues that hinder the cooperation of Russia and the NATO countries, there are two that stand out: the building of European missile defenses and the reforming of the collective security mechanism on the continent. If resolved, these issues could become game-changers in Russia’s relations with the United States and its NATO allies.

God and Democratic Diplomacy

Timothy Samuel Shah, Daniel Philpott and Monica Duffy Toft — Wed, 18 May 2011 08:04:35 -0500

"Democracy, with its open debate and its popular control, was supposed to have exposed religion as a crutch for primitive people. Surprisingly, though, religion has profited precisely from the open debate and room to operate that democracy affords. The best squelchers of religion are, in fact, secular dictators."

American Power after Bin Laden

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 09 May 2011 11:38:58 -0500

"...[P]ossession of power resources does not always imply that one can get the outcomes one prefers. Even the recent death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of United States special forces does not indicate anything about American power one way or the other."

Nuclear Inertia

Matthew Fuhrmann — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 10:50:45 -0500

"Nuclear-reactor construction is dominated by inertia. Harvesting nuclear energy is incredibly expensive at first, but much cheaper once the infrastructure is in place. Nevertheless, countries with a lot of money invested in nuclear energy have been surprisingly reluctant to give it up—even after major nuclear accidents. States that were not heavily invested, however, have often been quick to cancel their nuclear plans after accidents in other countries."

Russia: Conscription Crisis Looming?

Simon Saradzhyan — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 09:47:16 -0500

The conscription model of the Russian armed forces is unsustainable, and the country’s military planners will either have to recruit older men and cancel exemptions or recruit more professional soldiers in the future. The latter is preferable given that skilled rank-and-file will be needed to operate sophisticated weapons systems that the Russian military plans to acquire in the next decade.

God's Century: Resurgent Religion and Global Politics

Monica Duffy Toft, Daniel Philpott and Timothy Samuel Shah — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 19:41:01 -0500

Is religion a force for good or evil in world politics? How much influence does it have? Despite predictions of its decline, religion has resurged in political influence across the globe, helped by the very forces that were supposed to bury it: democracy, globalization, and technology. And despite recent claims that religion is exclusively irrational and violent, its political influence is in fact diverse, sometimes promoting civil war and terrorism but at other times fostering democracy, reconciliation, and peace. Looking across the globe, the authors explain what generates these radically divergent behaviors.

Preventing Enemy Coalitions: How Wedge Strategies Shape Power Politics

Timothy Crawford — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 15:15:39 -0600

States use wedge strategies to prevent hostile alliances from forming or to disperse those that have formed. These strategies can cause power alignments that are otherwise unlikely to occur, and thus have significant consequences for international politics. How do such strategies work and what conditions promote their success? The wedge strategies that are likely to have significant effects use selective accommodation—concessions, compensations, and other inducements—to detach and neutralize potential adversaries. These kinds of strategies play important roles in the statecraft of both defensive and offensive powers. Defenders use selective accommodation to balance against a primary threat by neutralizing lesser ones that might ally with it. Expansionists use selective accommodation to prevent or break up blocking coalitions, isolating opposing states by inducing potential balancers to buck-pass, bandwagon, or hide. Two cases—Great Britain’s defensive attempts to accommodate Italy in the late 1930s and Germany’s offensive efforts to accommodate the Soviet Union in 1939—help to demonstrate these arguments. By paying attention to these dynamics, international relations scholars can better understand how balancing works in specific cases, how it manifests more broadly in international politics, and why it sometimes fails in situations where it ought to work well.

Europe's Troubles: Power Politics and the State of the European Project

Sebastian Rosato — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 14:46:29 -0600

The 1990s were years of great optimism in Europe. As the Europeans were putting the finishing touches on their economic community, observers predicted that political and military integration would soon follow. Optimism has turned to pessimism since the turn of the century, however. Most analysts believe that the economic community is in crisis, and hardly anyone predicts the creation of a political or military counterpart to it. Why has the European project run into trouble and what does the future hold? The answers to these questions are largely to be found in the distribution of power. It was the overwhelming power of the Soviet Union that drove the Western Europeans to consider a variety of integration initiatives and to build and maintain the European Community (EC) during the Cold War. In 1991 the collapse of the Soviet Union deprived them of a compelling geostrategic reason to pursue further integration or even to preserve their economic community. As a result, the Europeans have made no real effort to establish a political or military community over the past two decades, and the EC has slowly started to fray. As long as there are no significant changes in the balance of power going forward, worse times lie ahead.