Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Energy

Insure to Assure: A New Paradigm for Nuclear Nonproliferation and International Security

Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra K. Decker — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:52:42 -0400

"No country has yet encountered major problems in its nuclear fuel supply specifically because of commercial disruptions. However, past political constraints on supply may be part of the motivation for countries like Iran to seek enrichment capability. Thus far it is unclear what other countries might be on the fence about acquiring a full fuel cycle and could be swayed not to enrich if an effective assurance mechanism could address the simply political risk. It is important for IAEA to identify these countries and the assurances they would need so that the best supply assurance mechanism can be crafted. Anticipating nuclear needs—not just for enriched uranium but also for fabricated fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.—and deciding whether and how government should help satisfy such needs is the best way to ensure that the industry develops in ways that serve the public's interests."

Optimal Spatial Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Given a Price on Carbon Dioxide

Michael J. Kuby, Jeffrey Bielicki and Richard S. Middleton — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:36:56 -0400

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) links together technologies that separate carbon dioxide (CO2) from fixed point source emissions and transport it by pipeline to geologic reservoirs into which it is injected underground for long-term containment. Previously, models have been developed to minimize the cost of a CCS infrastructure network that captures a given amount of CO2. The CCS process can be costly, however, and large-scale implementation by industry will require government regulations and economic incentives. The incentives can price CO2 emissions, through a tax or a cap-and-trade system, or involve the purchase of CO2 by oil companies for enhanced oil recovery from depleted oil fields.

Biofuels and Certification

Henry Lee and Charan Devereaux — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:52:56 -0400

Liquid biofuels can provide a substitute for fossil fuels in the transportation sector. Many countries have mandated the use of biofuels, by creating targets for their use. If not implemented with care, however, actions that increase biofuel production can put upward pressure on food prices, increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and exacerbate degradation of land, forest, and water sources. A strong global biofuels industry will not emerge unless these environmental and social concerns are addressed.

Realistic Costs of Carbon Capture

Mohammed Al-Juaied and Adam Whitmore — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 13:37:39 -0400

There is a growing interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a means of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However there are substantial uncertainties about the costs of CCS. Costs for pre-combustion capture with compression (i.e. excluding costs of transport and storage and any revenue from EOR associated with storage) are examined in this discussion paper for First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) plant and for more mature technologies, or Nth-of-a-Kind plant (NOAK).

Will carbon cap-and-trade incite protectionism?

Martin Feldstein — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:53:15 -0400

"There is no easy answer to this problem. But before rushing to impose tariffs, it is important to remember that cap-and-trade policies would not be the only government source of differences in competitiveness. Better roads, ports, and even schools all contribute to a country`s competitiveness."

DOE FY 2010 Budget Request and Recovery Act Funding for Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment: Analysis and Recommendations

Laura Diaz Anadon, Kelly Sims Gallagher and Matthew Bunn — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:27:51 -0400

A new analysis of energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment (ERD3) funding in the Obama administration's FY2010 budget and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 finds that the total available for energy research development and demonstration alone and ERD3 in FY2010 would double and increase by two-thirds, respectively, compared to FY2009 (based on certain assumptions). These substantial funding increases—coupled with a range of institutional innovations the administration is implementing and movement toward putting a price on carbon emissions—will help accelerate innovation for a broad range of energy technologies. This report analyzes DOE's budget request for ERD3 and the Recovery Act and makes recommendations for further action by Congress and the administration.

Driving Carbon Capture and Storage Forward in China

Hengwei Liu and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 19:09:23 -0400

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), as an option in the portfolio of mitigation actions to combat climate change, is expected to have far-reaching implications for China. This paper (1) explores the strategic significance of CCS for China by making an extreme scenario analysis of Chinese power sector in 2030; (2) provides an overview of the recent CCS activities in China; and (3) identifies the major challenges with respect to CCS development in China and put forwards immediate strategies.

DOE Budget Authority for Energy Research, Development, & Demonstration Database

Kelly Sims Gallagher and Laura Diaz Anadon — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:01:10 -0400

This document contains June 2009 updates to our database on U.S. government investments in energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment (ERD3) through the Department of Energy. The update includes funding for ERD3 from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The database, in Microsoft Excel format, tracks DOE appropriations from FY 1978–2009 and the FY 2010 budget request. It also includes several charts.

Understanding China's Climate Change Policy—From Both International and Domestic Perspectives

Bo Wang — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:41:01 -0400

China's climate change policy expresses both continuity and change over time. Continuity is observed in China's active involvement in policy formation, both domestically and internationally. Changes are reflected both in China's institutional arrangements on climate change mitigation and adaptation and increasing flexibility in international negotiations. Both continuity and change can be attributed to international and domestic factors. Among China's foreign policy objectives are enhancing its international image, international engagement, sovereignty concerns, and solidarity with developing countries. Domestic objectives include the need for continued economic development, increased attention to environmental protection, and social learning effects.

Sustainable Development of the Indian Coal Sector

Ananth Chikkatur, Ambuj D. Sagar and T. L. Sankar — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:24:56 -0400

Increased availability of energy, especially electricity, is important for India to help advance economic and human development. Coal, which currently accounts for more than 50% of total primary commercial energy supply in the country and for about 70% of total electricity generation, is likely to remain a key energy source for India for at least the next 30–40 years. Thus, sustainable development of the Indian coal sector is necessary to ensure the ability to sustain the increased production of coal in the country and to do so in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner.

In-use Vehicle Emissions in China: Beijing Study

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:29:42 -0400

China's economic boom in the last three decades has spurred increasing demand for transportation services and personal mobility. Consequently, vehicle population has grown rapidly since the early 1990s, especially in megacities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. As a result, mobile sources have become more conspicuous contributors to urban air pollution in Chinese cities.

Tianjin was our first focus city, and the study there took us about two years to complete. Building upon the experience and partnership generated through the Tianjin study, the research team carried out the Beijing study from fall 2007–fall 2008.

Beijing was chosen to be our second focus city for several reasons: it has the largest local fleet and the highest percentage of the population owning vehicles among all Chinese cities, and it has suffered from severe air pollution, partially due to the ever-growing population of on-road vehicles.

Proposed Roadmap for Overcoming Legal and Financial Obstacles to Carbon Capture and Storage

Wendy B. Jacobs, Leah Cohen, Leah Kostakidis-Lianos and Sara Rundell — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:49:52 -0400

Many existing proposals either lack sufficient concreteness to make carbon capture and geological sequestration (CCGS) operational or fail to focus on a comprehensive, long term framework for its regulation, thus failing to account adequately for the urgency of the issue, the need to develop immediate experience with large scale demonstration projects, or the financial and other incentives required to launch early demonstration projects. We aim to help fill this void by proposing a roadmap to commercial deployment of CCGS in the United States.

A Joint Workshop on Promoting the Development and Deployment of IGCC/Co-Production/CCS Technologies in China and the United States

Lifeng Zhao, Yunhan Xiao and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:27:31 -0400

The workshop examined issues surrounding Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal plants, which turn coal into gas and remove impurities before the coal is combusted, and the related carbon capture and sequestration, in which the carbon dioxide emissions are captured and stored underground to avoid releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Though promising, advanced coal technologies face steep financial and legal hurdles, and almost certainly will need sustained support from governments to develop the technology and move it to a point where its costs are low enough for widespread use.

A Technology-Based Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy for 2030

Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 18:07:31 -0400

"A Technology-Based Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy for 2030" by Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon presented at the U.S. Society of Ecological Economics 2009 Conference, Washington, D.C., June 1, 2009.

Cap-and-Trade: All Cost, No Benefit

Martin Feldstein — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:19:20 -0400

"The Obama administration and congressional Democrats have proposed a major cap-and-trade system aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Scientists agree that CO2 emissions around the world could lead to rising temperatures with serious long-term environmental consequences. But that is not a reason to enact a U.S. cap-and-trade system until there is a global agreement on CO2 reduction. The proposed legislation would have a trivially small effect on global warming while imposing substantial costs on all American households. And to get political support in key states, the legislation would abandon the auctioning of permits in favor of giving permits to selected corporations."

Center Hosts U.S.-China Workshop on Clean Energy and Carbon Collection, Sequestration

Sasha Talcott — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:10:14 -0400

With both China and the United States relying heavily on coal for electricity, senior government officials from both countries have urged immediate action to push forward technology that would reduce carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired plants. They discussed possible actions at a high-level workshop in April jointly sponsored by the Belfer Center's Energy Technology Innovation Policy (ETIP) research group, China's Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Spotlight with Venkatesh Narayanamurti

Sasha Talcott and Venkatesh "Venky" Narayanamurti — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:06:05 -0400

Venkatesh (Venky) Narayanamurti, is the new director of the Belfer Center's Science, Technology, and Public Policy program. He will be named the Benjamin Pierce Professor of Technology and Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School in July.

Newsmakers

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:04:56 -0400

Belfer Center Newsmakers.

Obama's Fuel-Efficiency Plan? Not So Efficient

Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:32:05 -0400

"Because CAFE standards increase the price of new cars, the standards have the unintentional effect of keeping older — dirtier and less fuel-efficient — cars on the road longer. This is counterproductive.

Also, by decreasing the cost per mile of driving, CAFE standards — like any energy-efficiency technology standard — exhibit a rebound effect — namely, people have an incentive to drive more, not less, thereby lessening the anticipated reduction in gasoline usage."

Acting in Time on Energy Policy

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:19:42 -0400

This policy brief outlines urgent priorities for U.S. energy policy at the dawn of the Obama administration, and recommends specific steps that the U.S. government should take to address the numerous energy-related challenges facing the United States. It is based on the book, Acting in Time on Energy Policy (Brookings 2009), edited by Kelly Sims Gallagher, director of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center.

We concentrate on six topics: climate change policy, carbon capture and storage policy, oil security policy, energy-technology innovation policy, electricity market structure, and infrastructure policy. The United States cannot afford to wait any longer to enact long-term policies on these topics. In fact, acting early is clearly in the longer-term interest of the United States.

Robert Stavins Named to the Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 13 May 2009 15:00:38 -0400

Robert Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government at Harvard Kennedy School and a member of the Board of Directors at the school's Belfer Center, has been appointed to a new position in the Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

China to the Rescue?

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Thu, 07 May 2009 19:59:43 -0400

"...[T]he Chinese may not buy GM's and Ford's assets today, but they could rescue the U.S. industry in another way: by setting an example of good industrial policy for the United States to follow. Fuel efficiency standards in China, Japan, and even some European countries will push up demand for these sorts of cars. If U.S. firms are to remain internationally competitive, they will need to have more to offer in this regard. But Washington will also have to motivate American consumers to purchase efficient cars...."

Electricity Market Structure and Infrastructure

William Hogan — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:50:43 -0400

"Infrastructure investment is a common focus of energy policies proposed for the United States. Initiatives to improve energy security, meet growing demand, or address climate change and transform the structure of energy systems all anticipate major infrastructure investment. Long lead times and critical mass requirements for these investments present chicken-and-egg dilemmas. Without the necessary infrastructure investment, energy policy cannot take effect. And without sound policy, the right infrastructure will not appear. Acting in time to provide workable policies for infrastructure investment requires a framework for decisionmaking that identifies who decides and how choices should be made."

Policy for Energy Technology Innovation

Laura Diaz Anadon and John P. Holdren — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:16:04 -0400

"The United States ought to be the leader of the world in the energy technology innovation that is needed. It has the largest economy, uses the most energy (and within that total the most oil), has made the largest cumulative contribution to the atmospheric buildup of fossil carbon dioxide that is the dominant driver of global climate change, has a large balance of payments stake in competitiveness in the global energy technology market as well as a large stake in the worldwide economic and security benefits of meeting global energy needs in affordable and sustainable ways, and possesses by many measures the most capable scientific and engineering workforce in the world. The actual performance of this country in energy-technology innovation, however, has been falling short by almost every measure...."

Oil Security and the Transportation Sector

Henry Lee — Fri, 01 May 2009 21:48:41 -0400

"This chapter proposes to answer five fundamental questions: What exactly is the oil security problem, and how serious is it going forward? Why has it emerged at this point in time, and why has it been so difficult for the U.S. government to take the actions needed to mitigate it? Finally, what alternative policies are likely to be effective as the United States attempts to improve its oil security in the future?"

Making Carbon Capture and Storage Work

Daniel Schrag — Fri, 01 May 2009 21:13:14 -0400

"This chapter focuses on how the United States can accomplish ... reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. I argue that demonstration and deployment of technologies to capture carbon dioxide from large stationary sources, storing the waste CO₂ in geological formations, is likely to be an essential component of any carbon reduction strategy, both for the United States and for the world, and is also consistent with economic and security concerns. It also reviews the major technical challenges involved with widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage, and discusses policies that would lead to the specific goal of capturing and storing the CO₂ from all large stationary sources by the middle of this century."

Acting in Time on Climate Change

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:48:41 -0400

"This chapter expolres a number of related questions: How much time do we have to act? How much climate change is virtually inevitable? What are the consequences of procrastination? And finally, what is the appropriate role for governments wishing to act in time to reduce the threat of climate change? In addition, the reality of current emissions and policy responses is explored in some detail for the two biggest emitters in the world: the United States and China."

Acting in Time on Energy Policy

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:15:41 -0400

"The book's title—Acting in Time—refers to the persistent problem in U.S. energy policy that typically just enough is done to satisfy the short-term political imperatives, but not enough is done to actually solve the underlying problems themselves. As a result, many of the fundamental economic, environmental, and security-related challenges arising from patterns of U.S. energy production and consumption have become more intractable. Some now approach a point of crisis."

Foreword

David T. Ellwood — Fri, 01 May 2009 19:36:17 -0400

"The question of whether we can "act in time" on energy and climate change poses one of the most profound challenges facing the world today. No human activity, other than the wide-scale use of nuclear weapons, has greater potential to reshape and harm our planet and our species than the rapidly expanding generation of greenhouse gases. What is so frustrating about the issue is that even though the dangers are widely accepted in the scientific community, and even though failing to act in time could set off a chain of events that would be all but irreversible, action to date has been weak at best."

Acting in Time on Energy Policy

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Fri, 01 May 2009 18:53:33 -0400

Energy policy is on everyone's mind these days. The U.S. presidential campaign focused on energy independence and exploration ("Drill, baby, drill!"), climate change, alternative fuels, even nuclear energy. But there is a serious problem endemic to America's energy challenges. Policymakers tend to do just enough to satisfy political demands but not enough to solve the real problems, and they wait too long to act. The resulting policies are overly reactive, enacted once damage is already done, and they are too often incomplete, incoherent, and ineffectual. Given the gravity of current economic, geopolitical, and environmental concerns, this is more unacceptable than ever. This important volume details this problem, making clear the unfortunate results of such short-sighted thinking, and it proposes measures to overcome this counterproductive tendency.