Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Energy security

Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2013

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:20:44 -0500

The Summer 2013 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s expanding work on complex cybersecurity issues and Middle East challenges, offers reflections on the role of the U.S. in Iraq, and spotlights work being done by the Center and its affiliates on environment and energy issues.

Progress in Energy Innovation, Development, and Deployment

Andrew Facini — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:13:18 -0500

"As the financial and environmental costs of current-generation energy sources continue to mount, development and implementation of innovative new energy sources have become increasingly important. Belfer Center experts are putting their research to work to foster changes in government and industry alike to push forward these energy technologies."

Spotlight: Laura Diaz Anadon

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:11:07 -0500

"Laura Diaz Anadon is Associate Director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, Director of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, and a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors. In May, she was named Assistant Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School."

Prince Turki on Saudi Arabia's Role after Arab Awakening

Ramiro Gonzalez Lorca — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 08:48:51 -0500

In a speech for the Belfer Center’s Middle East Initiative, Prince Turki al Faisal laid out Saudi Arabia’s two–pronged security strategy as the Gulf kingdom contends with the fallout from the 2011 Arab uprisings and fast-changing global energy trends. Prince Turki, who directed the Saudi intelligence service for more than two decades and served as ambassador to the United Kingdom and Ireland, and then to the United States, said Saudi foreign policy doctrine is based on two themes: external security and energy security.

The full text as prepared for delivery is attached (pdf).

Oil and Grand Strategy: Great Britain and Germany, 1918–1941

Anand Toprani — Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:17:56 -0600

This seminar considered how oil shaped grand strategy in Great Britain and Germany between 1918 and 1941. The history of oil in the twentieth century is a chapter in the story of European decline, for the emergence of oil accelerated the decline of Britain and Germany as great powers capable of independently exerting their economic and military power.

The Energy Technology Innovation System

Tue, 23 Oct 2012 18:00:56 -0500

This article reviews the concept of an energy technology innovation system (ETIS). The ETIS is a systemic perspective on innovation comprising all aspects of energy transformations (supply and demand); all stages of the technology development cycle; as well as all the major innovation processes, feedbacks, actors, institutions, and networks.

The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia

Richard Armitage and Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 05 Sep 2012 13:03:29 -0500

The following report presents a consensus view of the members of a bipartisan study group on the U.S.-Japan alliance. The report specifically addresses energy, economics and global trade, relations with neighbors, and security-related issues. Within these areas, the study group offers policy recommendations for Japan and the United States, which span near- and long-term time frames. These recommendations are intended to bolster the alliance as a force for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

The U.S. Natural-Gas Boom Will Transform The World

John M. Deutch — Wed, 15 Aug 2012 09:09:47 -0500

"Two summers ago, natural gas cost $4.50 per thousand cubic feet, which was less than half what it had cost two summers earlier. Today the price is under $2.50," writes John Deutch, former director of teh C.I.A. and a member of the Belfer Center's International Council. "A United States hopelessly dependent on imported oil and natural gas is a thing of the past. Most energy experts now project that North America will have the capacity to be a net exporter of oil and natural gas by the end of this decade."

"Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior"

Erich Muehlegger, Shanjun Li and Joshua Linn — Tue, 24 Jul 2012 09:20:53 -0500

Gasoline taxes can be employed to correct externalities associated with automobile use in order to reduce dependency on foreign oil and raise government revenue. This paper examines how gasoline taxes affect consumer behavior as distinct from tax-exclusive gasoline prices. It suggests that traditional analysis could significantly underestimate policy impacts of tax changes and discusses the implications of these findings.

Energy Independence in an Interdependent World

Joseph S. Nye — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 07:22:04 -0500

"...[A] revolution in Saudi Arabia or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could still inflict damage on the US and its allies. So, even if America had no other interests in the Middle East, such as Israel or nuclear non-proliferation, a balance of energy imports and exports would be unlikely to free the US from military expenditures — which some experts estimate run to $50 billion per year — to protect oil routes in the region."

Oil Development in China: Current Status and Future Trends

Linwei Ma, Feng Fu, Zheng Li and Pei Liu — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 18:13:47 -0500

This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China's oil development through system analysis. The authors design three scenarios of China's oil demand in 2030 and analyze policy implications for oil conservation, automotive energy development, and energy security. From their analysis, they draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as controlling total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, enhancing oil conservation in all sectors with the emphasis on road transportation, and increasing investment in oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions.

Oil: The Next Revolution

Leonardo Maugeri — Thu, 31 May 2012 10:11:45 -0500

A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who is now a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s major oil formations and exploration projects.

Intensive Workshops Examine Energy Technologies, Future of Oil and Gas Reserves

Traci Farrell — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:15:33 -0500

A group of American and European academics working on understanding the future prospects of energy technologies and the role of governments shaping these prospects gathered at Harvard Kennedy School in April. Hosted by Laura Diaz Anadon, director of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy.... the group discussed the need to incorporate uncertainty around technical change, the challenges of utilizing expert elicitations to inform policy decisions using models, and future collaborative work combining different expert elicitations and different energy-economic models.

Film Series Promotes Environmental Activism

Traci Farrell — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:12:08 -0500

Organized by Environment and Natural Resources Assistant Director Amanda Sardonis and senior fellow Cristine Russell, ENRP kicked off its 2012 Environmental Film Series with screenings of three widely heralded documentaries: “The Last Mountain,” directed by Bill Haney focuses on citizens fighting to prevent large coal companies from practicing mountain top removal in their town.... “A Fierce Green Fire: The Battle for a Living Planet,” directed by Mark Kitchell, highlights the major environmental movements from the last 50 years, while "The Grand Energy Transition: Natural Gas - The Bridge To Our Sustainable Future," directed by Belfer Center International Council Member Robert A. Hefner III argues that natural gas is the future of U.S. energy.

Natural Gas as a Bridge to the Future

Dominic Contreras — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 08:11:50 -0500

April 11, 2012

On Monday April 9, the Belfer Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP) hosted a screening and discussion of Hefner’s latest project, a documentary titled “The Grand Energy Transition: Natural Gas – The Bridge To Our Sustainable Future.” Excerpts from the film were shown at the Kennedy School to an audience including Belfer Center Director Graham Allison and Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor Joseph S. Nye.

(See link below for audio podcast of the event)

Energy Report: Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 09:17:34 -0500

Researchers Brief U.S. Officials on Findings

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 09:16:32 -0500

The key authors of Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation released the report at an event in Washington, D.C.in November. Hosted by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, report authors Venky Narayanamurti, Laura Diaz Anadon, and Matthew Bunn presented the study process, findings, and recommendations.

Technology & Policy – A New Belfer Center Blog

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 09:15:05 -0500

Technology+Policy | Innovation@Work offers a platform for exchange of views on matters at the intersection of science, technology and public policy. Principal bloggers are Harvard faculty and Fellows from across the Belfer Center, the Kennedy School, and Harvard University.

Q&A Laura Diaz Anadon

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 09:10:15 -0500

Laura Diaz Anadon is the associate director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, director of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, and adjunct lecturer in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. She investigates the patterns and processes of technology innovation, especially the role of government policy in the development and deployment of advanced and cleaner energy technologies.

The Unnoticed Oil Revolution

Leonardo Maugeri — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 13:02:30 -0600

How booming investments, new technologies, new oil frontiers, and ongoing production development may set a surprising paradigm-shift in the energy world

Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation

Tue, 22 Nov 2011 20:04:16 -0600

The United States and the world need a revolution in energy technology—a revolution that would improve the performance of our energy systems to face the challenges ahead. In an intensely competitive and interdependent global landscape, and in the face of large climate risks from ongoing U.S. reliance on a fossil-fuel based energy system, it is important to maintain and expand long-term investments in the energy future of the U.S. even at a time of budget stringency. It is equally necessary to think about how to improve the efficiency of those investments, through strengthening U.S. energy innovation institutions, providing expanded incentives for private-sector innovation, and seizing opportunities where international cooperation can accelerate innovation. The private sector role is key: in the United States the vast majority of the energy system is owned by private enterprises, whose innovation and technology deployment decisions drive much of the country's overall energy systems.

Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation

Tue, 22 Nov 2011 18:51:59 -0600

The United States needs a revolution in energy technology innovation to meet the profound economic, environmental, and national security challenges that energy poses in the 21st century. Researchers at Harvard Kennedy School undertook a three-year project to develop actionable recommendations for transforming the U.S. energy innovation system. This research has led to five key recommendations for accelerating U.S. energy innovation.

Researchers Draft Blueprint to Boost Energy Innovation

James F. Smith — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 08:55:23 -0600

The U.S. government could save the economy hundreds of billions of dollars per year by 2050 by spending a few billion dollars more a year to spur innovations in energy technology, according to a new report by researchers at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The three-year project by the Belfer Center's Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group calls for doubling investment and adopting policy changes in energy technology.

Background: Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation Report

Wed, 09 Nov 2011 13:08:28 -0600

The report, Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation, released on Nov. 22, 2011, is the result of a three-year energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment (ERD3) project of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy (ETIP) research group at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The ERD3 project was funded by a grant from the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation to produce and promote a comprehensive set of recommendations to help the U.S. administration accelerate the development and deployment of low-carbon energy technologies.

China's Aircraft Carrier: Chinese Naval Nationalism and Its Implications for the United States

Robert Ross — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 11:05:14 -0500

China's carrier program reflects the Chinese Communist Party leadership's surrender to the forces of nationalism....As Chinese domestic instability has grown, the increasingly insecure Communist Party leadership has used the carrier program to bolster its nationalist legitimacy—just as it used the 2008 Olympics, the 2009 Shanghai Expo, high-speed rail, the 'world largest airport,' and other high-profile projects for this purpose."

Re-thinking the Fracking Debate

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 08:12:40 -0500

"Natural gas is a big deal, and fracking has transformed energy policies. Natural gas now constitutes 25 percent of US energy consumption. In only 10 years, shale gas, released through fracking, has risen from 2 to 30 percent of all natural-gas production. Shale depositories in states as geographically diverse as Texas, Montana, and New York have made the US essentially self-sufficient in natural-gas production, and even potentially an exporter of the commodity."

Iraqi Politics And Implications For Oil And Energy

Meghan L. O'Sullivan — Sun, 31 Jul 2011 09:05:39 -0500

Iraq could be poised for a dramatic transformation in which it finally escapes the political and technical constraints that have kept it producing less than 4 percent of the world’s oil, writes Meghan L. O'Sullivan. Should Iraq meet its ambitions to bring nearly 10 million more barrels of oil on line by 2017, it would constitute the largest ever capacity increase in the history of the oil industry. Even half this much would represent a massive achievement.

Will Electric Cars Transform the U.S. Vehicle Market?

Henry Lee and Grant Lovellette — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 13:15:31 -0500

For the past forty years, United States Presidents have repeatedly called for a reduction in the country's dependence on fossil fuels in general and foreign oil specifically. Some officials advocate the electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet as a path to meeting this goal. The Obama administration has embraced a goal of having one million electric-powered vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015, while others proposed a medium-term goal where electric vehicles would consist of 20% of the passenger vehicle fleet by 2030 — approximately 30 million electric vehicles. The technology itself is not in question; many of the global automobile companies are planning to sell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and/or battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2012. The key question is, will Americans buy them?

A Multinational Fuel Consortium: Obstacles, Options, and Ways Forward

Olli Heinonen — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 11:19:04 -0500

The World Nuclear Association estimates that by 2030, 600 nuclear reactors will be in operation around the world; 60 countries are considering nuclear power, out of which 10 to 25 are expected to bring nuclear power plants on line by 2030. This could lead, writes Olli Heinonen, to the construction of additional uranium enrichment plants, which, with adjustments, can produce material for nuclear weapons.

[A full version of this article is available at http://bos.sagepub.com/content/current]

International Workshop on Research, Development, and Demonstration to Enhance the Role of Nuclear Energy in Meeting Climate and Energy Challenges

Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:58:17 -0500

Dramatic growth in nuclear energy would be required for nuclear power to provide a significant part of the carbon-free energy the world is likely to need in the 21st century, or a major part in meeting other energy challenges. This would require increased support from governments, utilities, and publics around the world. Achieving that support is likely to require improved economics and major progress toward resolving issues of nuclear safety, proliferation-resistance, and nuclear waste management. This is likely to require both research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) of improved technologies and new policy approaches.