Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Environment and Climate Change

Will US-Japan Alliance Survive?

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:01:49 -0400

"...[T]he U.S.-Japan alliance will have to face a new set of transnational challenges to our vital interests, such as pandemics, terrorism, and human outflows from failed states. Chief among these challenges is the threat posed by global warming, with China having surpassed the U.S. as the leading producer of carbon-dioxide emissions (though not in per capita terms)."

Optimal Spatial Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Given a Price on Carbon Dioxide

Michael J. Kuby, Jeffrey Bielicki and Richard S. Middleton — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:36:56 -0400

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) links together technologies that separate carbon dioxide (CO2) from fixed point source emissions and transport it by pipeline to geologic reservoirs into which it is injected underground for long-term containment. Previously, models have been developed to minimize the cost of a CCS infrastructure network that captures a given amount of CO2. The CCS process can be costly, however, and large-scale implementation by industry will require government regulations and economic incentives. The incentives can price CO2 emissions, through a tax or a cap-and-trade system, or involve the purchase of CO2 by oil companies for enhanced oil recovery from depleted oil fields.

Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions Among One Billion High Emitters

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:45:28 -0400

The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) created a 2-tier world. It called upon the developed ("Annex I") countries to "take the lead" in reducing carbon emissions, and, under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," established no time frame for developing countries to follow. However, a consensus is now emerging in favor of low stabilization targets. These targets cannot be achieved without the participation of developing countries, which today emit about half of global CO2 emissions and whose future emissions increase faster than the emissions of industrialized countries under "business as usual" scenarios.

Biofuels and Certification

Henry Lee and Charan Devereaux — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:52:56 -0400

Liquid biofuels can provide a substitute for fossil fuels in the transportation sector. Many countries have mandated the use of biofuels, by creating targets for their use. If not implemented with care, however, actions that increase biofuel production can put upward pressure on food prices, increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and exacerbate degradation of land, forest, and water sources. A strong global biofuels industry will not emerge unless these environmental and social concerns are addressed.

Driving Carbon Capture and Storage Forward in China

Hengwei Liu and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 19:09:23 -0400

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), as an option in the portfolio of mitigation actions to combat climate change, is expected to have far-reaching implications for China. This paper (1) explores the strategic significance of CCS for China by making an extreme scenario analysis of Chinese power sector in 2030; (2) provides an overview of the recent CCS activities in China; and (3) identifies the major challenges with respect to CCS development in China and put forwards immediate strategies.

Harvard Project Participants Join Obama Administration

Robert C. Stowe — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:48:41 -0400

A number of individuals associated with the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements have received appointments in the administration of President Barack Obama. The Project's former Co-Director, Joseph Aldy, is now Special Assistant to the President for Energy and the Environment, reporting to Carol Browner and Lawrence Summers. (Ms. Browner is Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change.) Professor Summers (on leave from Harvard) himself was a member of the Harvard Project's Faculty Steering Committee before becoming Director of the National Economic Council in the White House and Assistant to the President for Economic Policy. Jody Freeman, also a former member of the Harvard Project's Faculty Steering Committee and a Harvard Law School Professor (on leave of absence), is now Counselor for Energy and Climate in the White House, reporting to Carol Browner.

Understanding China's Climate Change Policy—From Both International and Domestic Perspectives

Bo Wang — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:41:01 -0400

China's climate change policy expresses both continuity and change over time. Continuity is observed in China's active involvement in policy formation, both domestically and internationally. Changes are reflected both in China's institutional arrangements on climate change mitigation and adaptation and increasing flexibility in international negotiations. Both continuity and change can be attributed to international and domestic factors. Among China's foreign policy objectives are enhancing its international image, international engagement, sovereignty concerns, and solidarity with developing countries. Domestic objectives include the need for continued economic development, increased attention to environmental protection, and social learning effects.

Geospatial Science & Technology for Sustainable Development in Africa: Partnerships and Applications

Calestous Juma — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 18:31:57 -0400

This conference, co-sponsored by the Association of American Geographers and the Science, Technology, and Globalization Project, Harvard Kennedy School brought together members of public and private donor organizations with those from institutions and industry engaged in the application of geospatial science and technology to assess development needs, formulate responses to those needs, and successfully implement sustainable development programs in Africa. Its goal was to insure that public and private sector initiatives that rely on geospatial tools, techniques, and applications achieve a high level of integration in the areas of database requirements and standards, methodologies, and strategies for sustainability. Enhancing private sector linkages with government and nongovernmental initiatives already underway, as well as with ongoing academic and scientific research efforts, will help further capacity building and coordinate public policy applications across regions and themes.

Bonn Climate Negotiations: From the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements

Sasha Talcott and Robert C. Stowe — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 18:37:58 -0400

The current negotiations in Bonn, Germany, mark a major step on the road to the next international climate agreement. With the negotiating text now being discussed, the Harvard Project has a wide array of research papers and policy ideas, each condensed into a two-page summary, which may be useful to those working on these issues. We have chosen to highlight some of those most relevant to the Bonn negotiating agenda.

Sustainable Development of the Indian Coal Sector

Ananth Chikkatur, Ambuj D. Sagar and T. L. Sankar — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:24:56 -0400

Increased availability of energy, especially electricity, is important for India to help advance economic and human development. Coal, which currently accounts for more than 50% of total primary commercial energy supply in the country and for about 70% of total electricity generation, is likely to remain a key energy source for India for at least the next 30–40 years. Thus, sustainable development of the Indian coal sector is necessary to ensure the ability to sustain the increased production of coal in the country and to do so in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner.

In-use Vehicle Emissions in China: Beijing Study

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:29:42 -0400

China's economic boom in the last three decades has spurred increasing demand for transportation services and personal mobility. Consequently, vehicle population has grown rapidly since the early 1990s, especially in megacities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. As a result, mobile sources have become more conspicuous contributors to urban air pollution in Chinese cities.

Tianjin was our first focus city, and the study there took us about two years to complete. Building upon the experience and partnership generated through the Tianjin study, the research team carried out the Beijing study from fall 2007–fall 2008.

Beijing was chosen to be our second focus city for several reasons: it has the largest local fleet and the highest percentage of the population owning vehicles among all Chinese cities, and it has suffered from severe air pollution, partially due to the ever-growing population of on-road vehicles.

A Joint Workshop on Promoting the Development and Deployment of IGCC/Co-Production/CCS Technologies in China and the United States

Lifeng Zhao, Yunhan Xiao and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:27:31 -0400

The workshop examined issues surrounding Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal plants, which turn coal into gas and remove impurities before the coal is combusted, and the related carbon capture and sequestration, in which the carbon dioxide emissions are captured and stored underground to avoid releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Though promising, advanced coal technologies face steep financial and legal hurdles, and almost certainly will need sustained support from governments to develop the technology and move it to a point where its costs are low enough for widespread use.

A Technology-Based Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy for 2030

Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 18:07:31 -0400

"A Technology-Based Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy for 2030" by Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon presented at the U.S. Society of Ecological Economics 2009 Conference, Washington, D.C., June 1, 2009.

Cap-and-Trade: All Cost, No Benefit

Martin Feldstein — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:19:20 -0400

"The Obama administration and congressional Democrats have proposed a major cap-and-trade system aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Scientists agree that CO2 emissions around the world could lead to rising temperatures with serious long-term environmental consequences. But that is not a reason to enact a U.S. cap-and-trade system until there is a global agreement on CO2 reduction. The proposed legislation would have a trivially small effect on global warming while imposing substantial costs on all American households. And to get political support in key states, the legislation would abandon the auctioning of permits in favor of giving permits to selected corporations."

From the Director

Graham Allison — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:16:49 -0400

For a Center committed to advancing policy-relevant knowledge about the most important international challenges, the current avalanche of seemingly insurmountable challenges is a time of great excitement.

A Proposed Global Climate Policy Architecture

Jeffrey Frankel — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:11:30 -0400

A Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet in Copenhagen in December to try to decide a successor regime to the Kyoto Protocol. This study offers a proposal that builds on the foundations of Kyoto, in that it accepts the framework of national targets for emissions and tradable permits. But it attempts to solve the most serious deficiencies of that agreement: the need for long-term targets, the absence of participation by the United States and developing countries, and the incentive for countries to fail to abide by their commitments. Although there are many ideas to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, the existing proposals are typically based on just one or two out of the following three factors: science (e.g., capping global concentrations at 450 ppm) or equity (equal emissions per capita across countries) or economics (weighing the economic costs of aggressive short-term cuts against the long-term environmental benefits). The plan for emissions reductions proposed in this paper is more practical because it is based heavily on politics, in addition to those three considerations.

Center Hosts U.S.-China Workshop on Clean Energy and Carbon Collection, Sequestration

Sasha Talcott — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:10:14 -0400

With both China and the United States relying heavily on coal for electricity, senior government officials from both countries have urged immediate action to push forward technology that would reduce carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired plants. They discussed possible actions at a high-level workshop in April jointly sponsored by the Belfer Center's Energy Technology Innovation Policy (ETIP) research group, China's Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Spotlight with Venkatesh Narayanamurti

Sasha Talcott and Venkatesh "Venky" Narayanamurti — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:06:05 -0400

Venkatesh (Venky) Narayanamurti, is the new director of the Belfer Center's Science, Technology, and Public Policy program. He will be named the Benjamin Pierce Professor of Technology and Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School in July.

Newsmakers

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:04:56 -0400

Belfer Center Newsmakers.

Obama's Fuel-Efficiency Plan? Not So Efficient

Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:32:05 -0400

"Because CAFE standards increase the price of new cars, the standards have the unintentional effect of keeping older — dirtier and less fuel-efficient — cars on the road longer. This is counterproductive.

Also, by decreasing the cost per mile of driving, CAFE standards — like any energy-efficiency technology standard — exhibit a rebound effect — namely, people have an incentive to drive more, not less, thereby lessening the anticipated reduction in gasoline usage."

Acting in Time on Energy Policy

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:19:42 -0400

This policy brief outlines urgent priorities for U.S. energy policy at the dawn of the Obama administration, and recommends specific steps that the U.S. government should take to address the numerous energy-related challenges facing the United States. It is based on the book, Acting in Time on Energy Policy (Brookings 2009), edited by Kelly Sims Gallagher, director of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center.

We concentrate on six topics: climate change policy, carbon capture and storage policy, oil security policy, energy-technology innovation policy, electricity market structure, and infrastructure policy. The United States cannot afford to wait any longer to enact long-term policies on these topics. In fact, acting early is clearly in the longer-term interest of the United States.

New York Business Roundtable: Key Takeaways

Sasha Talcott — Mon, 18 May 2009 12:17:26 -0400

With the U.S. Congress currently debating whether and how to establish a domestic cap-and-trade system to address climate change, the outcome of those discussions is critical to global climate negotiations in Copenhagen and beyond, according to a roundtable discussion on post-Kyoto climate policy hosted by Barclays Capital on April 30, 2009, with insights from the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements.

The business roundtable in New York, which included participants from a range of industries and key government officials, looked at the implications of U.S. domestic climate policy for the international process, the current state of the Waxman-Markey bill in the U.S. Congress, and the future of national and global carbon markets.

Robert Stavins Named to the Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 13 May 2009 15:00:38 -0400

Robert Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government at Harvard Kennedy School and a member of the Board of Directors at the school's Belfer Center, has been appointed to a new position in the Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy: Summary for Policymakers

Joseph Aldy and Robert N. Stavins — Tue, 12 May 2009 20:07:46 -0400

This volume is a highly topical contribution to climate policy debates that searches for a new treaty to succeed Kyoto when it expires in 2012. The Harvard Project is entirely non-partisan and is the world's most comprehensive and authoritative study of all aspects of climate policy whose advice is sought by the UN and national governments. Distils key findings from the Harvard Project into an easy reference for policymakers, journalists, climate activists, and amateurs with an interest in climate policy.

Electricity Market Structure and Infrastructure

William Hogan — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:50:43 -0400

"Infrastructure investment is a common focus of energy policies proposed for the United States. Initiatives to improve energy security, meet growing demand, or address climate change and transform the structure of energy systems all anticipate major infrastructure investment. Long lead times and critical mass requirements for these investments present chicken-and-egg dilemmas. Without the necessary infrastructure investment, energy policy cannot take effect. And without sound policy, the right infrastructure will not appear. Acting in time to provide workable policies for infrastructure investment requires a framework for decisionmaking that identifies who decides and how choices should be made."

Policy for Energy Technology Innovation

Laura Diaz Anadon and John P. Holdren — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:16:04 -0400

"The United States ought to be the leader of the world in the energy technology innovation that is needed. It has the largest economy, uses the most energy (and within that total the most oil), has made the largest cumulative contribution to the atmospheric buildup of fossil carbon dioxide that is the dominant driver of global climate change, has a large balance of payments stake in competitiveness in the global energy technology market as well as a large stake in the worldwide economic and security benefits of meeting global energy needs in affordable and sustainable ways, and possesses by many measures the most capable scientific and engineering workforce in the world. The actual performance of this country in energy-technology innovation, however, has been falling short by almost every measure...."

Oil Security and the Transportation Sector

Henry Lee — Fri, 01 May 2009 21:48:41 -0400

"This chapter proposes to answer five fundamental questions: What exactly is the oil security problem, and how serious is it going forward? Why has it emerged at this point in time, and why has it been so difficult for the U.S. government to take the actions needed to mitigate it? Finally, what alternative policies are likely to be effective as the United States attempts to improve its oil security in the future?"

Acting in Time on Climate Change

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:48:41 -0400

"This chapter expolres a number of related questions: How much time do we have to act? How much climate change is virtually inevitable? What are the consequences of procrastination? And finally, what is the appropriate role for governments wishing to act in time to reduce the threat of climate change? In addition, the reality of current emissions and policy responses is explored in some detail for the two biggest emitters in the world: the United States and China."

Acting in Time on Energy Policy

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:15:41 -0400

"The book's title—Acting in Time—refers to the persistent problem in U.S. energy policy that typically just enough is done to satisfy the short-term political imperatives, but not enough is done to actually solve the underlying problems themselves. As a result, many of the fundamental economic, environmental, and security-related challenges arising from patterns of U.S. energy production and consumption have become more intractable. Some now approach a point of crisis."

Foreword

David T. Ellwood — Fri, 01 May 2009 19:36:17 -0400

"The question of whether we can "act in time" on energy and climate change poses one of the most profound challenges facing the world today. No human activity, other than the wide-scale use of nuclear weapons, has greater potential to reshape and harm our planet and our species than the rapidly expanding generation of greenhouse gases. What is so frustrating about the issue is that even though the dangers are widely accepted in the scientific community, and even though failing to act in time could set off a chain of events that would be all but irreversible, action to date has been weak at best."