Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Environment and Climate Change

Sectoral Approaches for a Post-2012 Climate Regime: A Taxonomy

Jonas Meckling and Gu Yoon Chung — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:26:11 -0500

Sectoral approaches have been gaining currency in the international climate debate as a possible remedy to the shortfalls of the Kyoto Protocol. Proponents argue that a sector-based architecture can more easily invite the participation of developing countries, address competitiveness issues, and enable immediate emissions reductions. However, given the numerous proposals, much confusion remains as to what sectoral approaches actually are. This article provides a simple, yet comprehensive, taxonomy of the various proposals for sectoral approaches.

Climate Finance

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:40:05 -0500

The finance of climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries represents a key challenge in the negotiations on a post-2012 international climate agreement. Finance mechanisms are important because stabilizing the climate will require significant emissions reductions in both the developed and the developing worlds, and therefore large-scale investments in energy infrastructure. The current state of climate finance has been criticized for its insufficient scale, relatively low share of private-sector investment, and insufficient institutional framework. This policy brief presents options for improving and expanding climate finance.

Three Pillars of Post-2012 International Climate Policy

Sheila M. Olmstead and Robert N. Stavins — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:03:35 -0400

Our proposal for a post-2012 international global climate policy agreement contains three essential elements: meaningful involvement by key industrialized and developing nations; an emphasis on an extended time path of targets; and inclusion of market-based policy instruments. This architecture is consistent with fundamental aspects of the science, economics, and politics of global climate change.

Damietta Mobilizes for Its Environment

Jeannie Sowers and Sharif Elmusa — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:40:50 -0400

October 21, 2009

In 2008, Egypt's Mediterranean port city of Damietta saw escalating protest against EAgrium, a Canadian consortium building a large fertilizer complex in Ra's al-Barr. Ra's al-Barr sits at the end of an estuary, where the Damietta branch of the Nile River joins the Mediterranean. It is a prime destination for vacationing Egyptians in the summertime and the location of the year-round residences of the Damiettan elite. Fishermen ply the waters offshore. When plans for the fertilizer complex were announced, a coalition of locals feared that all three sources of income -- tourism, real estate and fishing -- would be jeopardized by emissions into the air and water. As summer temperatures climbed and the protests mounted, the government found itself caught between its contractual obligations to international investors and a well-organized local movement opposed to the project on both environmental and developmental grounds.

A Portfolio of Domestic Commitments: Implementing Common but Differentiated Responsibilities

Robert N. Stavins — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 12:07:44 -0400

An effective, but more flexible and politically palatable approach could be an international agreement on a "portfolio of domestic commitments." Under such an agreement, nations would agree to honor commitments to greenhouse gas emission reductions laid out in their own domestic laws and regulations. A portfolio of commitments may emerge from a global meeting such as the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, or a smaller number of major economies could negotiate an agreement among themselves, and then invite other countries to join.

The São Paulo Proposal for an Agreement on Future International Climate Policy

Erik Haites, Farhana Yamin and Niklas Höhne — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:52:23 -0400

The São Paulo Proposal is designed to create a stable, long-term, universal regime based on the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Such a regime is required to encourage the technological change and structural shifts necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. Richer countries adopt binding targets that become more stringent over time. Financial and institutional provisions to enhance developing country implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions are strengthened.

Expert Elicitation of Cost, Performance, and RD&D Budgets for Greenhouse Gas Reducing Strategies

Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:22:11 -0400

Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon of the Energy Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project presented at the 2009 Annual Meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS).

Harvard Project Conducts Roundtable Workshop in Brussels, Hosted by the European Union Commissioner for Environment

Robert C. Stowe — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:08:56 -0400

The Harvard Project conducted a roundtable workshop on September 30, 2009, hosted by European Union Commissioner for Environment Stavros Dimas and titled "Post-2012 Climate Change Policy: Insights from the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements". Commissioner Dimas and Robert Stavins, Director of the Harvard Project, spoke, respectively, on the status of European Union (EU) and U.S. climate change policy.

Belfer Center Announces 2009-2010 Research Fellows

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:33:49 -0400

Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs today announced its 2009-2010 research fellows. The fellows, drawn from governments, academia, and the public sector, will work with Center faculty and fellows to research issues of critical significance internationally, ranging from security issues such as nuclear proliferation and terrorism to climate change and energy policy. The new fellows come from countries as diverse as South Korea, India, Egypt, Germany, and South Africa.

Yes: The Transition Can Be Gradual—and Affordable

Robert N. Stavins — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 19:32:18 -0400

"...[T]he U.S. and China have been involved in intense talks about climate policy. If the two nations come together in a bilateral agreement—a real possibility—they would have much more leverage to persuade other major nations to join. From there, developing nations could be brought on board by giving them targets that reduce emissions without stifling growth. Advanced nations might agree to more-severe emissions cuts and allow developing nations to make gradual cuts in the early decades as they rise toward the world's average per-capita emissions. With the right incentives, developing countries can and will move onto less carbon-intensive growth paths."

Global Climate Policy Architecture and Political Feasibility: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Attain 460 PPM CO2 Concentrations

Valentina Bosetti and Jeffrey Frankel — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:22:00 -0400

This paper offers a framework of formulas that produce precise numerical targets for emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in all regions of the world in all decades of this century. The formulas are based on pragmatic judgments about what is possible politically. The reason for this approach is the authors' belief that many of the usual science-based, ethics-based, and economics-based paths are not politically viable. It is not credible that successor governments will be able to abide by the commitments that today’s leaders make, if those commitments would be costly.

The Essential Pillars of a New Climate Pact

Sheila M. Olmstead and Robert N. Stavins — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 18:30:25 -0400

THE climate change summit at the United Nations on Tuesday is aimed to build momentum for the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December, where nations will continue negotiations on a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. To be successful, any feasible successor agreement must contain three essential elements: meaningful involvement by a broad set of key industrialized and developing nations; an emphasis on an extended time path of emissions targets; and inclusion of policy approaches that work through the market, rather than against it.

Climate Change a Stumbling Block to Africa's Economies

Calestous Juma — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 14:15:32 -0400

According to the World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, ... a two-degree Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels could permanently reduce Africa's annual per capita consumption by four to five per cent....The report calls on industrialised countries, which have released most of the greenhouse gases, to lead the way in charting a new low-carbon economic path. In addition, the report calls for financial support to enable developing countries adapt to climate change and lay the foundation for low-carbon economies.

American Power in 21st Century

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 11:44:18 -0400

The problem for American power in the 21st century is that there are more and more things outside the control of even the most powerful state. Although the U.S. does well on military measures, there is much going on that those measures fail to capture.

An Expanded Three-Part Architecture for Post-2012 International Climate Policy

Sheila M. Olmstead and Robert N. Stavins — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 18:28:31 -0400

The major features of a post-2012 international global climate policy architecture are described with three essential elements: a means to ensure that key industrialized and developing nations are involved in differentiated but meaningful ways; an emphasis on an extended time path of targets; and inclusion of flexible market-based policy instruments to keep costs down and facilitate international equity. This architecture is consistent with fundamental aspects of the science, economics, and politics of global climate change; addresses specific shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol; and builds upon the foundation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center Announces 2009 Roy Family Award for Environmental Partnership

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 19:06:45 -0400

September 3, 2009

The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University announced today that the 2009 Roy Family Award for Environmental Partnership will be given to the Mexico City Metrobus, a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system that reduces air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, while improving the quality of life and transportation options in one of the largest cities in the world.

Technology in the UN Climate Change Negotiations: Moving Beyond Abstraction

Morgan Bazilian — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:12:07 -0400

This brief considers the technology negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) within the wider context of low-carbon energy technology. In doing so, it focuses on how technology issues can be effectively embedded within a potential agreement at the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) in Copenhagen. The paper asserts that the negotiations must be conducted with cognizance of national decision-making processes and competing priorities. It puts forth a series of framing topics in order to more explicitly explore the large technology "ecosystem". It concludes that the most appropriate area for international cooperation on technology under the UNFCCC lies in the direct provision of human and institutional capacity building with a focus on the least developed countries.

Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy: Summary for Policymakers

Joseph Aldy and Robert N. Stavins — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 20:07:46 -0400

This volume is a highly topical contribution to climate policy debates that offers options, based on cutting-edge social-science research, for an international climate change regime to succeed the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. It distils key findings from the Harvard Project into an easy reference for policymakers, journalists, and stakeholders.

Rules for Negotiating and Updating Climate Treaties

Bard Harstad — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:17:19 -0400

A climate treaty is characterized by a large number of parameters: What should the abatement or emission levels be? How should the burden to abate be distributed across countries? What should the time profile for the emission levels be? Should there be issue linkages with other policy areas? Should there be any side transfers between some countries and, if so, what should the transfers be? This richness in parameters implies that there is a lot to decide and negotiate before the final climate treaty is ready.

Moreover, there is great uncertainty regarding the future costs and benefits of abatement. Today, it is not yet known how much abatement will be desirable in the future. This means that any climate treaty must be updated, or renegotiated, quite frequently in the coming years. The realized climate policies depend on future international negotiations—and the rules governing these.

Options for Reforming the Clean Development Mechanism

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:28:31 -0400

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)—established by the Kyoto Protocol of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change—is an emissions offset program that allows industrialized countries to receive credits for funding emissions reduction projects in developing countries. The program is intended to provide a cost-effective way for industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while at the same time supporting sustainable development in developing countries. However, the CDM has been criticized for its lengthy and expensive project approval procedures, its exclusion of many categories of potentially important mitigation activities, and its methodologies for calculating whether projects actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In response to these problems, this Issue Brief presents a variety of options for reforming the CDM.

Climate change requires an energy technology revolution, Chu says

Beth Maclin — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 14:31:39 -0400

Secretary of Energy Steven Chu discussed the need for an aggressive national energy policy at a packed John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum event, “Laying the Foundation for the Next Generation of Clean Energy Jobs,” on August 6, 2009. He outlined challenges of global warming and potential strategies that could provide solutions.

A Proposal for a Global Upstream Emission Trading System (UGETS)

Akinobu Yasumoto and Mutsuyoshi Nishimura — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 22:11:37 -0400

An effective policy approach to climate change would be a global emission trading system. Opinions differ, however, as to what approach should be pursued when fostering a global emissions trading system. Many argue in favor of linking various national and regional emission trading systems as a possible way forward. However, an alternative method, which involves developing a new system from the ground up, could prove more advantageous. Under an Upstream Global Emission Trading System (UGETS), all nations would use an upstream emissions trading system that would result in far fewer monitoring points than a downstream system. A nation would only need to keep track of domestic shipments and imports of fossil fuels.

Gore's Carbon 'Tax Shift' Beats Cap-and-Trade

Elaine Kamarck — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 21:53:05 -0400

"At the core of the cap-and-trade approach is a new financial market in carbon permits. The economics of a cap mean that permit prices will be very volatile, inviting a frenzy of financial speculation by Wall Street. As Americans suffer through the worst recession in their lifetimes, they will find it hard to trust the fate of the planet to the same individuals who brought us credit default swaps, subprime mortgage securities and other exotic financial instruments."

The Dynamics of Climate Agreements

Bard Harstad — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 15:56:18 -0400

This paper provides a novel dynamic model of private provision of public goods. The agents can also invest in cost-reducing technologies but, nevertheless, the Markov-Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) is unique and the analysis tractable. The non-cooperative outcome is compared to scenarios where the agents can contract on contributions investment), and the optimal contract is derived.

While the model fits a variety of contexts, the policy implications for climate agree- ments are particularly important. Environmental agreements (e.g. the Kyoto protocol) are typically specifying emissions but not investments in technology, since such e¤orts would be hard to verify. They often have a limited time horizon and future commitments remain to be negotiated.

Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements Receives Additional Funding from Doris Duke Charitable Foundation to Expand Research in Key Areas

Sasha Talcott — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 16:29:27 -0400

As global negotiators prepare to discuss the next international climate agreement in Copenhagen and beyond, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation's Climate Change Initiative has awarded the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements $600,000 over one year to significantly expand its research and policy outreach.

How to Set Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets for All Countries

Jeffrey Frankel — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 12:05:45 -0400

Is a credible multilateral climate change agreement feasible? This column says that such global cooperation is necessary and attempts to address the political hurdles. The proposed emissions reduction plan develops formulas to cap atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide at 500 ppm while obeying political constraints regarding cost, fairness, and timing.

Will US-Japan Alliance Survive?

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:01:49 -0400

"...[T]he U.S.-Japan alliance will have to face a new set of transnational challenges to our vital interests, such as pandemics, terrorism, and human outflows from failed states. Chief among these challenges is the threat posed by global warming, with China having surpassed the U.S. as the leading producer of carbon-dioxide emissions (though not in per capita terms)."

Optimal Spatial Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Given a Price on Carbon Dioxide

Michael J. Kuby, Jeffrey Bielicki and Richard S. Middleton — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:36:56 -0400

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) links together technologies that separate carbon dioxide (CO2) from fixed point source emissions and transport it by pipeline to geologic reservoirs into which it is injected underground for long-term containment. Previously, models have been developed to minimize the cost of a CCS infrastructure network that captures a given amount of CO2. The CCS process can be costly, however, and large-scale implementation by industry will require government regulations and economic incentives. The incentives can price CO2 emissions, through a tax or a cap-and-trade system, or involve the purchase of CO2 by oil companies for enhanced oil recovery from depleted oil fields.

Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions Among One Billion High Emitters

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:45:28 -0400

The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) created a 2-tier world. It called upon the developed ("Annex I") countries to "take the lead" in reducing carbon emissions, and, under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," established no time frame for developing countries to follow. However, a consensus is now emerging in favor of low stabilization targets. These targets cannot be achieved without the participation of developing countries, which today emit about half of global CO2 emissions and whose future emissions increase faster than the emissions of industrialized countries under "business as usual" scenarios.

Biofuels and Certification

Henry Lee and Charan Devereaux — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:52:56 -0400

Liquid biofuels can provide a substitute for fossil fuels in the transportation sector. Many countries have mandated the use of biofuels, by creating targets for their use. If not implemented with care, however, actions that increase biofuel production can put upward pressure on food prices, increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and exacerbate degradation of land, forest, and water sources. A strong global biofuels industry will not emerge unless these environmental and social concerns are addressed.