Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Europe

Hot Off the Presses

Susan M. Lynch — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:03:27 -0500

A survey of recent books by Belfer Center affiliates.

Nebulous NATO: A Quest for Relevance

Timothy Sandole — Mon, 13 May 2013 10:38:22 -0500

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is considered the most successful military alliance in history, and yet, its future is clouded in uncertainty. With the end of the Cold War, followed by the breakup of the Soviet Union, NATO has suffered from a structural problem that has become more acute over time—the absence of a clearly defined existential threat to Europe. This makes for a dubious raison d’être. If NATO’s future was ambiguous immediately following the Cold War, it is disquieting to consider its role in an environment of draconian defense cuts, fiscal woes in the United States, a Europe-wide financial crisis, and a U.S. military shift toward the Pacific.

Hard Lessons in Keynesian Economics

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:40:20 -0500

"John Maynard Keynes once said that words should be used aggressively, “for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking.” That’s a starting point for an appreciation of Mervyn King, who will retire soon as governor of the Bank of England and who has displayed the quirky intellectual passion of Keynes himself."

The Role of Forests in a Future Climate Agreement

Donna Lee — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 19:18:02 -0500

Forests can play a significant role in helping to avoid dangerous climate change, and a global agreement under the UNFCCC would be uniquely placed to support efforts in this regard. The rising global demand for agricultural and other land-based products means that pressures on land are increasingly cross-border, and there is an accelerating expansion of the deforestation frontier. Smart domestic policies are critical to solving the deforestation challenge, and recent private sector interest in "sustainable agriculture" is encouraging. However, global agreements that value standing forests and provide incentives that positively impact land use change decisions can be an equally important tool.

The Palestinian Occupation: Even (Or Especially) the 'Gatekeepers' Say It Isn't Working

Charles G. Cogan — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 18:01:30 -0500

"...[U]nlike the French in Algeria, the Israelis, back in history, had a leading presence in the land they much, much later moved in on; nevertheless, there are similarities. What struck me most about The Gatekeepers was reminiscent of The Battle of Algiers: thousands and thousands of indigenous faces shouting or silently expressing their unhappiness at living under the thumb of foreign occupying forces. Looking at this sea of frustration, in frames that must have come largely from official Israeli footage, I said to myself, how can the Israelis, in continuing an occupation that has lasted over 45 years, hope to contain this movement?"

Visiting Fellows Ponder What Works and What Fails

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:36:12 -0500

In this article, new Belfer Center visting fellows tackle some of the most pressing current issues in international relations including U.S.-Brazilian relations, the European financial crisis, the legality of drone strikes and what a post-Assad Syria will look like.

U.S.-Russia Arms Control: Prospects and Challenges

Amb. Steven Pifer — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 16:46:26 -0500

This seminar examined the prospects for further nuclear arms reductions between the United States and Russia, including the possibility that negotiations might be expanded to weapons not limited by the New START Treaty. The seminar covered U.S. and Russian differences over missile defense and how those might be resolved to allow a cooperative NATO-Russia missile defense arrangement for Europe.

Why America Should Not Retrench

Stephen Brooks, G. John Ikenberry and William Wohlforth — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 18:52:37 -0500

The United States' extended system of security commitments creates a set of institutional relationships that foster political communication. Alliance institutions are first about security protection, but they also bind states together and create institutional channels of communication. For example, NATO has facilitated ties and associated institutions that increase the ability of the United States and Europe to talk to each other and to do business. Likewise, the bilateral alliances in East Asia also play a communication role beyond narrow security issues. Consultations and exchanges spill over into other policy areas. This gives the United States the capacity to work across issue areas, using assets and bargaining chips in one area to make progress in another.

Fascism's Nascent Comeback in Europe

Juliette Kayyem — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 18:49:16 -0500

"The austerity measures enacted in response to the Greek economic crisis have propelled the rise of right-wing politics; nationalist groups are gaining footholds throughout the country. One far-right party, Golden Dawn, has embraced the language and ideology of German fascism, focusing its ire on immigrants. Greece sits at the crossroads of Europe, Africa, and Asia, and shares a porous border with Turkey. The mass migration of refugees from Africa and the Middle East, in particular Syria with its 1 million displaced citizens, has led to increased violence against real and perceived outsiders in Greece."

'Iran is the Main Beneficiary of the Iraq War'

Max Tholl and Stephen M. Walt — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 18:35:30 -0500

"Iran has always been a major power in that region. Under Saddam however, Iran and Iraq were bitter enemies who fought a long war and were strongly opposed to one another. There was almost a rough balance of power between the two countries. By reducing Iraq's power and by allowing the Shia to become the dominant political force in Iraq, the US removed the main country balancing Iran, and helped bring to power a government that has at least some sympathies and links to Iran. So, Iran is by far the main strategic beneficiary of the Iraq War, which made it even more difficult for the US and its allies to deal with the country."

Preliminary Considerations: On National Cyber Security

Melissa Hathaway and Alexander Klimburg — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 19:38:57 -0500

In this chapter, Melissa Hathaway and Alexander Klimburg introduce three conceptual tools to help focus the strategic context and debate. These are termed the "three dimensions," the "five mandates," and the "five dilemmas" of national cyber security. Each dimension, mandate and dilemma will play a varying role in each nation's attempt to formulate and execute a national cyber security strategy according to their specific conditions.

National Cyber Security Framework Manual

Alexander Klimburg — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 19:09:46 -0500

The National Cyber Security Framework Manual provides detailed background information and in-depth theoretical frameworks to help the reader understand the various facets of National Cyber Security, according to different levels of public policy formulation.

Europe’s Work is Far From Over

Lawrence Summers — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 10:02:39 -0500

March 18, 2013

"Europe’s economic situation is viewed with far less concern than was the case six, 12 or 18 months ago. Policymakers in Europe far prefer engaging the United States on a possible trade and investment agreement to more discussion on financial stability and growth. However, misplaced confidence can be dangerous if it reduces pressure for necessary policy adjustments," warns Lawrence Summers in an op-ed for the Washington Post.

A Climate Diplomacy Proposal: Carbon Pricing Consultations

Adele Morris, Warwick McKibbin and Peter Wilcoxen — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 13:44:06 -0500

The United States has considerable tax administration and cap-and-trade expertise that could highlight potentially successful carbon pricing approaches. Although this experience is not climate-related, the United States deploys an efficient and highly compliant excise tax system, and it could assist developing country efforts to build their own capacity to tax carbon. The United States also has long experience with cap-and-trade systems for criteria air pollutants, much of which is transferable to greenhouse-gas emissions trading.

A New Great Power Relationship

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 11:42:46 -0600

"...[T]he United States has accepted the rise of Chinese power and invited Chinese participation as a responsible stakeholder in the international system. Power is not always a zero sum game. Given the global problems that both China and the United States will face, they have much more to gain from working together than in allowing overwrought fears to drive them apart, but it will take wise policy on both sides to assure this future."

Engineering Green Growth

Calestous Juma — Thu, 28 Feb 2013 16:08:17 -0600

"Recent trends in a variety of engineering fields have shown the prospects of pursuing ecologically sound technological leapfrogging. For example, the rapid adoption of mobile phones in African countries demonstrates how connectivity can be increased while reducing the ecological footprint of communication. Similarly, the rapid adoption of genetically engineered crops has shown how agricultural production can be enhanced while reducing the use of harmful agricultural chemicals."

Turkey's Regional Role: Public Attitudes in the Middle East

Thu, 28 Feb 2013 09:37:37 -0600

February 28, 2013

Audio recording of the February 14th, 2013 panel with the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) at the Middle East Initiative.

Developing Country Farmers Bridge the 'Biotechnology Divide'

Calestous Juma — Fri, 22 Feb 2013 08:50:07 -0600

"Farmers in developing countries, however, are bridging the 'biotechnology divide.' According to a new report by Clive James of the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications (ISAAA), 'For the first time, developing countries grew more, 52% of global biotech crops in 2012 than industrialized countries at 48%.'"

'Energy Independence' Alone Won't Boost U.S. Power

Meghan L. O'Sullivan — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 11:22:00 -0600

“We are finally poised to control our own energy future,” said President Barack Obama in his State of the Union message, noting the drastic increase in American energy production from unconventional oil and gas resources.

Controlling our energy future means more than just producing a greater amount of our own energy. It also means harnessing this energy renaissance to meet our global geopolitical needs. We’ve begun to reap the many economic benefits this boom brings—such as easing the trade deficit and lowering carbon emissions. But we have only started to appreciate how this energy renaissance affects our larger strategic environment. And, not surprisingly, many readers of the tea leaves have confused reality with desire, by hoping more energy at home will mean keeping out of the volatile politics and economics of the Middle East.

A Way Forward on Nuclear Disarmament

Sven-Eric Fikenscher — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 10:12:16 -0600

"Rather than continuing to spend billions of taxpayer dollars on deploying an all-encompassing system of highly doubtful effectiveness that threatens to seriously undermine Washington's nuclear security and disarmament agenda, the Obama administration should shelve the plans for deploying the fourth phase in Europe and engage Russia in joint talks."

Africa's Economic Growth Prospects

Calestous Juma — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 09:42:49 -0600

"The rise in technocratic leadership in Africa is directly related to the emphasis that the continent is placing on economic transformation. But more important, there is growing preference for blending democratic change with managerial competence in running public affairs. This suggests a different type of governance system that combines western party politics and eastern technocracy. It would appear from these nascent trends that Africa is starting to shape its economic future by borrowing ideas from around the world and adapting them to local needs."

Forging New Diplomatic Bonds Through Science and Technology

Calestous Juma — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 16:29:57 -0600

"Slovenia and Kenya are inventing a form of science and technology diplomacy that is based on commitment to taking on global challenges irrespective of size and level of development. The cooperation points to a new future in which science and technology will increasingly become the bond that ties nations together in new diplomatic arrangements."

America is Back

David Ignatius — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 15:25:24 -0600

"Vice President Biden was positively gushing in his speech to the conference about the good old transatlantic alliance. Only a year ago, Europeans were facing an existential economic crisis and worrying about an American “pivot” to Asia. But the economic talk here was about Europe’s recovery from its near-death experience, and Biden reassured his audience that U.S. policy, too, has come back to its traditional center point," writes David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

A Global Cyber-crisis in Waiting

Richard Clarke — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 11:59:29 -0600

"Like-minded nations should also agree that governments should not steal data from private corporations and then give that information to competing companies, as the government of China has been doing on a massive scale. The victims of Chinese economic espionage should seek to establish clear guidelines and penalties within the World Trade Organization system or, if China blocks that, victim states should seek to develop countermeasures and sanctions outside of that structure."

What's the Most Critical and Under-appreciated Issue in International Security? World Peace

Scott Moore — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 09:12:43 -0600

"...[I]t is clear that the international community possessed neither the analytic tools nor the institutional capabilities to deal with a world order in which ethno-religious groups, and not nation-states, were the primary operative actors. Which brings us back to the question: what if organized state violence and warfare is the exception rather than the rule in international security?"

Italian Yields Began to Fall as Soon as Berlusconi was Ousted

Pierpaolo Barbieri — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 18:12:36 -0600

"To argue that 'Mr Monti promised reform and ended up raising taxes' is to grossly misunderstand an imperfect but positive labour reform, pension changes and progress on competitiveness, tax evasion and corruption."

The Once and Present Ally: France

Charles G. Cogan — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 00:28:23 -0600

"When the new, and pro-American, French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, returned France to the NATO integrated command in the spring of 2009, a number of prominent French figures stated their reservations, the most articulate of whom was the former French foreign minister under François Mitterrand, Hubert Védrine. Much later, and more recently, in a report submitted to President François Hollande on Nov. 12, 2012, Védrine stated that although de Gaulle had been right in 1966, the world had changed since. And the United States, especially with the reelection of Barack Obama, had changed. The Americans now want an increased military role for the Europeans."

The Real Plight of the Orphan-Hostages

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 07:45:38 -0600

"...[I]t is painfully clear that this is a simple hostage story. It includes the fate of 46 children who had already been placed in loving homes in the United States but will now remain in Russia. The Russian orphans are being held, serving as a human shield, because the Russians want to prevent other countries from following the United States in cracking down on human rights abuses under Putin's regime."

Peacemakers 2012

Nicholas Burns — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 09:17:39 -0600

"As the holidays approach, 2012 hasn't provided much hope for the seasonal wish of 'Peace on Earth,' Not when the headlines reveal the savagery of the Syrian and Congolese civil wars, Hamas-Israel rocket barrages, insurrection in Mali, fighting in Afghanistan, violence in Egypt, and the heartbreaking nightmare of the death of innocent young children in Newtown, Conn," writes Nicholas Burns, director of the Belfer Center's Future of Diplomacy Project. "But, if we look at this year more closely, it is possible to find people, thousands of them, who may not have the power of a state at their disposal but are pushing the cause of peace step by difficult step in every corner of the world."

Oil and Grand Strategy: Great Britain and Germany, 1918–1941

Anand Toprani — Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:17:56 -0600

This seminar considered how oil shaped grand strategy in Great Britain and Germany between 1918 and 1941. The history of oil in the twentieth century is a chapter in the story of European decline, for the emergence of oil accelerated the decline of Britain and Germany as great powers capable of independently exerting their economic and military power.