Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Strategy and national security

Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2013

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:20:44 -0500

The Summer 2013 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s expanding work on complex cybersecurity issues and Middle East challenges, offers reflections on the role of the U.S. in Iraq, and spotlights work being done by the Center and its affiliates on environment and energy issues.

The Cost of Saving Lives in Bangladesh

Ben Heineman — Fri, 10 May 2013 08:30:13 -0500

May 10, 2013

The horrific death of more than 900 Bangladesh garment workers in the collapse of a building, following the death of 112 garment workers in a Bangladesh factory fire five months ago, has led, of course, to the inevitable calls for reform. The immediate question is how to ensure structural soundness of factories after the multi-storied Rana Plaza facility--making garments for as many as 30 international retailers--broke apart, burning, suffocating and crushing its workforce. But broader issues of worker health and safety for Bangladesh's 5,000 garment factories have also come to the fore.

Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power

David E. Sanger — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 10:14:50 -0500

President Obama's administration came to office with the world on fire. Confront and Conceal is the story of how, in his first term, Obama secretly used the most innovative weapons and tools of American power, including our most sophisticated—and still unacknowledged—arsenal of cyberweapons, aimed at Iran's nuclear program.

Confront and Conceal—with an updated epilogue for this paperback edition—provides an unflinching account of these complex years of presidential struggle, in which America's ability to exert control grows ever more elusive.

Squandering opportunity on Mischief Reef

William H. Tobey — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 13:31:49 -0600

February 5, 2013

Incredibly, territorial disputes between China and its neighbors over uninhabited islands threaten to become a flashpoint threatening peace in East Asia. While tensions have since cooled a bit, the Economist recently warned that "China and Japan are sliding towards war." Last August, large, angry, and violent protests broke out in dozens of Chinese cities against a decision by the Japanese government to buy several of the disputed islands (called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China) from a Japanese private citizen. Again this month, China sortied aircraft and ships near the islands, and Japan scrambled fighters in response.

Bibi’s Choice After Election Will Set Course for Israel

Shai Feldman — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 17:00:31 -0600

"In the aftermath of next week’s Israeli elections, Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu will face the decision of his political life," Shai Feldman writes. "What kind of governing coalition he chooses to form will affect Israel for years to come. One option will effectively end hopes of a two-state solution to Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians and deepen its isolation. The other could open the door to negotiations and better relations with Europe and the United States."

Biotechnology and Africa's Strategic Interests

Calestous Juma — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 15:59:04 -0600

"Biotechnology offers Africa a wider range of economic opportunities than the Green Revolution did. It is already being used to improve food production and establish or revive cotton production. Its economic impact is therefore likely to go well beyond the farm sector to include industrial development."

Syrian Rebels at Cross Purposes

David Ignatius — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 08:20:27 -0600

November 23, 2012

The Syrian opposition took a big step forward this month by forming a broad political coalition that includes local activists who started the revolution. But the opposition’s military command is still a mess, and until it’s fixed, jihadist extremists will keep getting more powerful.

After Sandy, Environmentalists, Military Find Common Cause

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 09:59:02 -0600

"Today, one hurricane (or tornado or fire or drought) does not constitute proof of climate change, but to deny the cumulative impact of extreme weather on geopolitics is no longer tenable. Changes in the environment will exacerbate destabilization in areas of deep strategic importance to the United States, including Asia, the Middle East, the Arctic, and Latin America. Facing increased temperatures, people will have to move to avoid rising sea water, tidal infiltrations, or arid soil; they will be searching for water, food, and space. The movement of people, and the fights between them over commodities, have been the causes of many wars."

Picasso, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Malcolm Wiener

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 12:45:12 -0500

As visitors step through the doors of the Kennedy Memorial Library for events commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, they will find on display Picasso's 1963 Rape of the Sabine Women - on loan from Boston's Museum of Fine Arts. The connection between Picasso's painting and what is widely accepted as the most dangerous moment in human history was brought to light for many by Malcolm Wiener, a member of the Belfer Center’s International Council and the person for whom Harvard Kennedy School’s Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy was named.

Winners Announced for Cuban Missile Crisis Lessons Contest

Fri, 19 Oct 2012 13:23:09 -0500

On the 50^th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and Foreign Policy Magazine invited policymakers, scholars, students, and members of the public to propose 300-word lessons for today’s leaders from the 13 days in 1962 when the world stood on the brink of nuclear war. Today, the Belfer Center and Foreign Policy are pleased to announce the winners of the Cuban Missile Crisis lessons contest.

Advice To The Next President: National And Homeland Security

Graham Allison and Juliette Kayyem — Wed, 17 Oct 2012 11:31:34 -0500

"Having a professional military means that the United States can go to war while the vast majority of citizens are not directly affected. Therefore it falls upon the president, more than any other individual, to make sure the nation goes to war only if and when absolutely necessary."

Israel in Lebanon—Getting It Wrong: The 1982 Invasion, 2000 Withdrawal, and 2006 War

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:21:43 -0500

"The present study assesses the reasons for Israel's repeated policy failures in Lebanon by comparing the decision making processes (DMPs) in the three most important cases above: the two wars and the unilateral withdrawal. Failure, of course, is both a relative and subjective term. Indeed, it can be argued that not all of these cases were unequivocal failures; the outcome of the 2006 war was not entirely negative from Israel's perspective and the alternative in 2000, such as remaining in Lebanon, might have been worse. Thus, failure, for the purposes of this study, refers not to the quality of the outcomes, but to Israel's ability to achieve the objectives set out by its leaders."

How It Went Down

Graham Allison — Mon, 21 May 2012 08:05:13 -0500

"While journalists have provided a number of histories of the events that led to bin Laden's death, the purpose of this analysis is to examine White House decisionmaking for lessons that can be applied to future foreign policy challenges."

In a TIME magazine cover story, Belfer Center Director Graham Allison writes about decisions behind the raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden. Allison, whose analysis is the result of more than 100 hours of interviews, is author of the prize-winning analysis of the 1971 Cuban Missile Crisis, Essence of Decision.

On the Campaign Trail

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 09:02:26 -0500

Several Belfer Center affiliates have been tapped by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney for their expertise and advice on areas and issues ranging from the Asia-Pacific and Middle East to counterterrorism and intelligence, proliferation, and impact of international organizations.

Comrades, we're in a defensive arms race with Russia-- but it isn't a bad thing.

Kevin Ryan — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:39:45 -0600

Russian leaders have previously promised to improve the survivability of their offensive nuclear missile force as a means of ensuring that they would retain an effective nuclear deterrent, and that will likely happen. But recent events and announcements indicate that Russia is also investing money in its own increased missile defenses.

Our Best Foreign Policy President

Nicholas Burns — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 00:00:53 -0600

Nicholas Burns recounts one of the most important events in American history—the beginning of the end of the Cold War, 20 years ago this week—and pays tribute to President George H.W. Bush's notable foreign policy achievements during his presidency. As the Republican primaries begin, Burns encourages voters to look critically at the foreign policy credibility of their candidates and who is best prepared to lead us through the thickets of the most complex foreign policy landscape we have ever encountered.

Belfer Center Newsletter Winter 2011-2012

Sharon Wilke — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 09:20:05 -0600

The Winter 2011-2012 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features news, analysis and insight by Belfer Center scholars on issues that include increasingly important info-tech policy challenges and the first U.S.-Russian joint threat assessment on nuclear terrorism. The Center’s deepening impact on defense policy is highlighted with an article about the recent appointments of Ashton B. Carter and Eric Rosenbach to senior Pentagon posts and a Q&A with Carter, the new deputy secretary of defense. Additional articles focus on issues ranging from the Palestinian bid for statehood to Calestous Juma’s role in Lagos’ launch of the first innovation advisory council in Africa.

Arab Awakening, Act II

Nicholas Burns — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 14:25:47 -0600

In his Nov. 25 Boston Globe column, “Arab Awakening, Act 2”, Nicholas Burns warns that, nearly one year since the start of reform and revolution across the Arab world, the region may turn more turbulent and violent in the months ahead.

International Council Engages on Middle East, Energy Transformations

Mon, 16 May 2011 09:16:31 -0500

The turmoil engulfing the Middle East dominated the two-day gathering of the Belfer Center’s International Council on April 12-13. One panel after another discussed the wide-ranging implications of the Arab Spring, debating potential outcomes and ramifications of the dramatic uprisings as well as the Obama administration’s handling of the serial crises.

U.S. Should Support British and French-led No Fly Zone in Libya

Graham Allison — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 11:47:05 -0500

"President Obama should announce immediately full U.S. support for a British-French led No Fly Zone over Libya," writes Graham Allison. "He should express confidence in the British and French to organize and conduct this military operation with the backing of their colleagues in the 27-nation European Union and NATO. The US should stand ready to respond to requests for help if we have unique capabilities, including intelligence assets, essential for this mission." The U.S. should not take the lead, Allison argues.

Preventing Enemy Coalitions: How Wedge Strategies Shape Power Politics

Timothy Crawford — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 15:15:39 -0600

States use wedge strategies to prevent hostile alliances from forming or to disperse those that have formed. These strategies can cause power alignments that are otherwise unlikely to occur, and thus have significant consequences for international politics. How do such strategies work and what conditions promote their success? The wedge strategies that are likely to have significant effects use selective accommodation—concessions, compensations, and other inducements—to detach and neutralize potential adversaries. These kinds of strategies play important roles in the statecraft of both defensive and offensive powers. Defenders use selective accommodation to balance against a primary threat by neutralizing lesser ones that might ally with it. Expansionists use selective accommodation to prevent or break up blocking coalitions, isolating opposing states by inducing potential balancers to buck-pass, bandwagon, or hide. Two cases—Great Britain’s defensive attempts to accommodate Italy in the late 1930s and Germany’s offensive efforts to accommodate the Soviet Union in 1939—help to demonstrate these arguments. By paying attention to these dynamics, international relations scholars can better understand how balancing works in specific cases, how it manifests more broadly in international politics, and why it sometimes fails in situations where it ought to work well.

The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics: A Neorealist Synthesis

Davide Fiammenghi — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 15:07:01 -0600

Realist scholars have long debated the question of how much power states need to feel secure. Offensive realists claim that states should constantly seek to increase their power. Defensive realists argue that accumulating too much power can be self-defeating. Proponents of hegemonic stability theory contend that the accumulation of capabilities in one state can exert a stabilizing effect on the system. The three schools describe different points along the power continuum. When a state is weak, accumulating power increases its security. This is approximately the situation described by offensive realists. A state that continues to accumulate capabilities will eventually triggers a balancing reaction that puts its security at risk. This scenario accords with defensive realist assumptions. Finally, when the state becomes too powerful to balance, its opponents bandwagon with it, and the state’s security begins to increase again. This is the situation described by hegemonic stability theory. These three stages delineate a modified parabolic relationship between power and security. As a state moves along the power continuum, its security increases up to a point, then decreases, and finally increases again. This modified parabolic relationship allows scholars to synthesize previous realist theories into a single framework.

Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment

Paul MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 14:19:17 -0600

There is broad scholarly consensus that the relative power of the United States is declining and that this decline will have negative consequences for international politics. This pessimism is justified by the belief that great powers have few options to deal with acute relative decline. Retrenchment is seen as a hazardous policy that demoralizes allies and encourages external predation. Faced with shrinking means, great powers are thought to have few options to stave off decline short of preventive war. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, however, retrenchment is not a relatively rare and ineffective policy instrument. A comparison of eighteen cases of acute relative decline since 1870 demonstrates that great powers frequently engage in retrenchment and that retrenchment is often effective. In addition, we find that prevailing explanations overstate the importance of democracies, bureaucracies, and interest groups in inhibiting retrenchment. In fact, the rate of decline can account for both the extent and form of retrenchment, even over short periods. These arguments have important implications for power transition theories and the rise of China.

In Repealing 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell,' Implementation Matters

Ben Heineman — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 09:33:24 -0600

"Critics ignore that the U.S. military has, in the past, made two momentous and largely successful transitions in the face of opposition among the uniformed force: racial integration and gender integration."

Nine Years After 9/11: Keeping America Safe

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 15:54:25 -0500

"In order to achieve success, the intelligence leadership must ensure that every officer in the community understands that the DNI is here to stay, and that the FBI requires their full support. Internal dissonance and institutional rivalries are the surest ways to leave holes in our nation's defenses."

Beyond Islamists

Rami Khouri — Mon, 05 Jul 2010 14:42:07 -0500

The strategies of political containment or armed opposition to powerful Islamic groups like Hamas, Hizbullah and the Taliban have yielded unsatisfactory results so far. Addressing and ultimately relieving the underlying grievances which drive the Islamist groups of all kinds from Middle East to South Asia is the key to dealing with them.

The Illusion of Liberal Internationalism’s Revival

Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz — Thu, 17 Jun 2010 08:36:01 -0500

Over the past two decades, political polarization has shaken the domestic foundations of U.S. grand strategy, sorely testing bipartisan support for liberal internationalism. Stephen Chaudoin, Helen Milner, and Dustin Tingley take issue with this interpretation, contending that liberal internationalism in the United States is alive and well. Their arguments, however, do not stand up to careful scrutiny.

The Center Still Holds: Liberal Internationalism Survives

Stephen Chaudoin, Helen V. Milner and Dustin H. Tingley — Thu, 17 Jun 2010 08:29:02 -0500

Recent research, including an article by Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz in this journal, has argued that the United States' long-standing foreign policy orientation of liberal internationalism has been in serious decline because of rising domestic partisan divisions. A reanalysis of the theoretical logic driving these arguments and the empirical evidence used to support them suggests a different conclusion.

Strategies for Acquiring Foreign Nuclear Assistance in the Middle East: Lessons from the United Arab Emirates

Bryan Early — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 18:29:12 -0500

October 31, 2009

The path to acquiring a peaceful civilian nuclear program is fraught with challenges for countries in the Middle East. Given Israel's proactive policies in preventing the proliferation of its neighbors and nuclear supplier states' consternation about the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region, Arab states face a number of unique obstacles in acquiring foreign nuclear assistance. Yet as the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) recent success in courting the assistance of a number of nuclear supplier states demonstrates, these obstacles are not insurmountable. This piece explores the UAE's strategies in obtaining foreign nuclear assistance to uncover the generalizable insights that may be of use to other Middle Eastern countries seeking to develop peaceful nuclear programs.

The Heart of the Matter: The Security of Women and the Security of States

Wed, 28 Jan 2009 23:27:04 -0600

A multidisciplinary theoretical and empirical investigation of the “women and peace” thesis not only proves that the physical security and well being of women is directly linked to the security of the state, but it explains more of the variance in state peacefulness than do conventional measures such as level of democracy, level of wealth, and preponderance of Islamic civilization. Scholars and policymakers would therefore do best to analyze the security of women when considering the linkage between state security and peacefulness.

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