Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - History of international relations

Obama Can Still Build 2nd Term Legacy

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 21 May 2013 11:41:23 -0500

"Obama's first term was marked by the passage of health care legislation — unpopular with some, but a historic accomplishment that Democratic presidents have sought since the days of Harry Truman. The Democrats' loss of the House of Representatives in the 2010 elections has constrained Obama's ability to advance other transformational efforts on the domestic front, though some believe that, out of self-interest, the Republican Party may still allow bipartisan reform of immigration law during Obama's second term."

Kenneth Waltz, 1924–2013

Sean M. Lynn-Jones — Wed, 15 May 2013 11:52:05 -0500

Kenneth Waltz, who was arguably the most influential scholar of international relations of the past half-century, passed away on May 13, 2013. Waltz's influence is particularly evident in the pages of International Security, to which he was also a contributor. To commemorate his legacy, we are making two of his articles available online.

Nussaibah Younis: Foreign Policies of Weak States Matter

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:10:43 -0500

The invasion of Iraq prompted a deluge of work written on the country from a U.S. perspective, but Nussaibah Younis, a fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program, wants people to start considering Iraq as an actor in its own right. While at the Center, Younis is working on a project that seeks to understand internal Iraqi foreign policymaking dynamics since 2003.

Elbe Group Facilitates U.S.-Russia Communication, Security

Kevin Ryan — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:02:01 -0500

As U.S. and Soviet forces converged in Germany in the final days of WWII, both armies met at the River Elbe near Torgau. That meeting of comrades, united in the face of common threats, is the inspiration for the Belfer Center’s “Elbe Group,” whose purpose is to maintain an open and continuous channel of communication on sensitive issues of U.S.-Russian relations. In late March, the Elbe Group met in Jerusalem for its eighth meeting since its founding in 2010.

JFK’s wisdom for graduates

Nicholas Burns — Sun, 12 May 2013 09:18:48 -0500

In this season of commencement addresses, Future of Diplomacy Project Director Nicholas Burns reflects on what he believes to be the most important speech by an American president in a half a century: President John F. Kennedy's 1963 commencement address at American University. Burns praises that speech, delivered 50 years ago next month, "for its moral courage and strong sense of idealism and hope," and encourages us to hold to those values still today.

Our Pacific Predicament

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 15:10:56 -0500

"American interests rest on stability in the region to allow the continuing growth of trade and investment that benefits all countries. The U.S.-Japan alliance remains crucial to stability in East Asia, but so too are good relations in all three sides of the strategic triangle. One thing is clear: If, despite all we do, Sino-Japanese relations deteriorate toward literal conflict, the United States will be faced with some very tough choices."

History Will Judge Bush on Iraq War

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 16:29:00 -0500

"Truman biographer David McCullough warns that about 50 years must pass before historians can really appraise a presidency. But one decade after Truman left office, the Marshall Plan and the NATO alliance were already seen as solid accomplishments. Bush lacks comparable successes to compensate for his mismanagement of Iraq."

Chavez Death Creates Risk, Opportunity

Juliette Kayyem — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 15:24:47 -0600

"By eliminating the automatic refugee status granted to Cubans if they somehow reach US soil, we would stop tempting them to take to the seas in rickety boats and inner tubes on which many lose their lives. We would also put the whole world on equal footing, determining which refugees are allowed to stay not by whether we like (or don't like) their country's leadership, but whether they have valid reasons to stay, including a fear of political reprisals. It is time we end a Cuba policy that has sowed ill will among our southern neighbors and non-Cuban immigrant populations in the United States."

A New Great Power Relationship

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 11:42:46 -0600

"...[T]he United States has accepted the rise of Chinese power and invited Chinese participation as a responsible stakeholder in the international system. Power is not always a zero sum game. Given the global problems that both China and the United States will face, they have much more to gain from working together than in allowing overwrought fears to drive them apart, but it will take wise policy on both sides to assure this future."

Wooing Russia — and its Influence

David Ignatius — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 14:38:10 -0600

"The administration is exploring ways to engage Russia as President Obama begins his second term. At the top of the list are the biggest U.S. headaches — Syria, Iran and North Korea. The White House thinks that, after a period of frosty relations, Putin is also looking to rebuild a cooperative relationship," writes David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

Be Wary of Rising China, Says Lee Kuan Yew

Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill and Ali Wyne — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 13:15:28 -0600

Read an excerpt in The Australian from a new book on the founding father of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, by Belfer Center Director Graham Allison and Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill, with Belfer Center Associate Ali Wyne. The book is titled: Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World.

Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew Talks America's Strengths And Weaknesses

Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill and Ali Wyne — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 08:00:29 -0600

Both in the United States and abroad, many influential observers argue that the U.S. is in systemic decline. Not so, says Lee Kuan Yew, the sage of Singapore. Lee is not only a student of the rise and fall of nations. He is also the founder of modern Singapore. As prime minister from 1959 to 1990, he led its rise from a poor, small, corrupt port to a first-world city-state in just one generation.

America is Back

David Ignatius — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 15:25:24 -0600

"Vice President Biden was positively gushing in his speech to the conference about the good old transatlantic alliance. Only a year ago, Europeans were facing an existential economic crisis and worrying about an American “pivot” to Asia. But the economic talk here was about Europe’s recovery from its near-death experience, and Biden reassured his audience that U.S. policy, too, has come back to its traditional center point," writes David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill, and Ali Wyne on Lee Kuan Yew’s Predictions for China’s Future

Paul Fraioli — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 15:52:10 -0600

January 30, 2013

Time magazine’s Feb. 4, 2013 international edition published an extensive excerpt from the new book, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World (MIT Press, Feb. 1, 2013), by Graham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill, with Ali Wyne. The book draws on their in-depth interviews with Lee and his voluminous writings and speeches. The excerpt in Time distills Lee’s strategic insights about the future of China.

Work With China, Don't Contain It

Joseph S. Nye — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 14:49:12 -0600

"But America's rebalancing toward Asia should not be aggressive. We should heed Mr. Kennan's warning against overmilitarization and ensure that China doesn't feel encircled or endangered. The world's two largest economies have much to gain from cooperation on fighting climate change, pandemics, cyberterrorism and nuclear proliferation."

The Second Term: Joseph Nye on U.S.-Chinese Relations

Doug Gavel and Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 08:57:44 -0600

"The task for the Obama Administration over the next four years will be to implement a balanced policy that both balances and integrates China. It must shape the environment to deter aggressive actions while holding open the opportunity for cooperation with joint gains."

The Once and Present Ally: France

Charles G. Cogan — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 00:28:23 -0600

"When the new, and pro-American, French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, returned France to the NATO integrated command in the spring of 2009, a number of prominent French figures stated their reservations, the most articulate of whom was the former French foreign minister under François Mitterrand, Hubert Védrine. Much later, and more recently, in a report submitted to President François Hollande on Nov. 12, 2012, Védrine stated that although de Gaulle had been right in 1966, the world had changed since. And the United States, especially with the reelection of Barack Obama, had changed. The Americans now want an increased military role for the Europeans."

Not Even an Itsy-Bitsy Step

Charles G. Cogan — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 13:36:03 -0600

"Israel demonstrated once more, implicitly, that it does not favor a two-state solution. It also demonstrated once more that it has no strategic vision as to how to end its 45-year-old occupation of the Palestinian territories. And while it calls on the Palestinians to return to the negotiating table 'without preconditions,' while it continues to build settlements in these territories...."

Japan's Nationalism is a Sign of Weakness

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 15:32:18 -0600

"Japanese public opinion is shifting to the right and in a more nationalistic direction. Not only has Mr Abe recently visited the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial second world war memorial, but politicians to his right have formed new parties and staked out nationalistic positions. Shintaro Ishihara, the former Tokyo mayor who helped spur the dispute with China over the Senkaku Islands, speaks of Japan acquiring nuclear weapons."

The Never-Ending War in the Middle East

David Ignatius — Mon, 26 Nov 2012 12:32:38 -0600

"The most depressing aspect about the latest Gaza war is that it dramatizes this 'no-exit' aspect of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Wars recur every four or five years, but they never seem to settle anything. The Israelis pound the Palestinians until they accept a cease-fire, but it’s temporary. The emotional state of war continues," Writes David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

Italian Lake District: Historical Markers

Charles G. Cogan — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 18:45:55 -0600

We also visited Stresa...on Lake Maggiore, where...in 1935, on a nearby island known as Isola Bella, the three Western leaders, Ramsay McDonald of Britain, Pierre Laval of France, and Mussolini, signed a pact known as the "Front of Stresa," in opposition to a threatened anchluss (absorption) of Austria by Germany, in opposition to changes in the Versailles Treaty, and in support of the pact of Locarno (farther north in the Swiss part of Lake Maggiore) where in 1925, France, Germany, Belgium, Britain, and Italy came to a series of agreements. The first three pledged not to go to war, and the latter two acted as guarantors. But by the mid-1930s, Adolf Hitler had come to power in Germany and much of Europe had begun to run after him as the most powerful leader on the Continent. Mussolini was to follow suit.

US View of Cuba is Stuck in the 1960s

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 15:29:22 -0500

"The movement of people, including through immigration rules, is a powerful force compelling many foreign policy changes. Cuba's reforms will increase the ties between the nations; American constituencies tied to the past will be left fighting a relic. It is simply no longer a question of whether the United States is willing to assess its Cuba strategy, just when."

Winners of Cuban Missile Crisis Lessons Contest Announced

Fri, 26 Oct 2012 12:38:35 -0500

The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Foreign Policy Magazine have announced the winners and runners-up of the “Lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis Contest,” held to mark the 50^th anniversary of the crisis that narrowly averted nuclear war in October 1962.

The Post–Cold War Cold Peace: Chalk One for the Russians

Charles G. Cogan — Mon, 15 Oct 2012 12:44:13 -0500

"...[T]he Russians have gathered together a formidable axis with which to contest the Western aim in Syria, which is to remove Bashar al Assad from power: the fellow veto-wielder in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), China, which has joined with the Russians in stymieing repeated UNSC attempts to end the conflict in Syria and bring about a change of regime. The Russians also have certain regional power backing for their Syrian policy of support to the Bashar al Assad regime: Shia Iran definitely; Shia Hezbollah definitely; and Shia Iraq, to some extent."

Why Europe Deserved the Peace Prize

Pierpaolo Barbieri — Sat, 13 Oct 2012 22:41:28 -0500

"With all its imperfections, Europe today is the largest single market in the world, featuring effective anti-trust regulations, curtailing economic nationalism, and promoting free trade agreements with counties as far away as Asia and Latin America. New potential members are eager to join, from booming Turkey to crisis-ridden Iceland. Despite all the talk of stalling, Turkish membership will eventually come to pass."

The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 16:45:40 -0500

"We can conclude that nuclear deterrence mattered in the crisis and that the nuclear dimension certainly figured in Kennedy's thinking. But it was not the ratio of nuclear weapons that mattered so much as the fear that even a few nuclear weapons would wreak intolerable devastation."

Theory and Policy in International Relations: Some Personal Reflections

Stephen M. Walt — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 17:06:55 -0500

"It has been nearly thirty years since I received my PhD. At that time, I was convinced that systematic scholarly research could uncover and verify timeless truths about international politics and foreign policy, and that once those discoveries had been made, a grateful policy community would quickly absorb them and adopt the right prescriptions. With the passage of time, I've gained both a greater respect for the limits of what social science can accomplish and a greater appreciation for the imperviousness of the policy community to reasoned discourse, especially in the United States. Even if scholars were able to produce more convincing analyses—itself a debatable proposition—overcoming the entrenched interests that shape what policy makers choose to do is not easy."

China's Fear of Contagion: Tiananmen Square and the Power of the European Example

Mary Elise Sarotte — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 09:51:14 -0500

Obsession with the democratic changes sweeping Europe in the late 1980s and a concomitant desire to keep these changes from spreading may have played a critical role in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) decision to take violent action against the Tiananmen Square protestors in 1989. New sources, released during the 2009 to 2011 anniversaries of the events that ended the Cold War, cite the CCP’s determination to prevent the spread of democracy as one of its primary motivating factors. These sources also suggest that the CCP did not fear reprisals by the United States, which it predicted would take “no real countermeasures.”

Two Concepts of Liberty: U.S. Cold War Grand Strategies and the Liberal Tradition

Brendan Rittenhouse Green — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 08:47:48 -0500

Contrary to conventional accounts, the United States did not immediately adopt a balancing strategy against the Soviet Union after World War II. Rather, the Eisenhower administration sought U.S. withdrawal from Western Europe by pursuing a buck-passing strategy. Only under the Kennedy administration did the United States begin to make permanent commitments to the defense of Europe. A new theory analyzes this shift in policy, defining those who sought to withdraw from Europe as “negative liberals” and those who sought firmer balancing commitments as “positive liberals.”

All the Asian Rage

Niall Ferguson — Mon, 24 Sep 2012 16:52:10 -0500

September 24, 2012

Belfer Center Board member, Niall Ferguson, examines China and Japan's relationships with the United States' administration.