Belfer Center Topics

The New Influencers: A Primer on the Expanding Role of Middle Powers in Africa

Belfer Center — Aug 5, 2024

Aug 5, 2024

This original primer, conducted as research for The Africa Futures Project, is an initial exploration into the evolving roles and increasing influence of “middle powers” in Africa. It covers a diverse array of existing and aspiring middle powers, presenting key points for each nation under four distinct analytical lenses.

Reflecting on the U.S. Strategy Towards Africa: Embracing Partnership & Pragmatism

Belfer Center — Jul 28, 2024

Jul 28, 2024

The Africa in Focus series is a forum for the intellectual and critical analysis of processes and policies from the continent and its engagement with the international community. Through thoughtful and dynamic programming, Africa in Focus brings greater African perspectives into broader policy conversations at HKS.

The Trump/Vance Unilateralist Delusion

Belfer Center — Jul 25, 2024

Jul 25, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that if Trump and Vance win in November, it will do enormous long-term damage to America's global position.

A War Without a Name: The Iran-Israel Relationship in Historical Perspective

Belfer Center — Jul 24, 2024

Jul 24, 2024

The defining tension in Middle Eastern politics today—and the most combustible pile of tinder—is between the State of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The antagonism between the two countries has existed for more than forty years. It has played out across the region for more than twenty years within the context of the Middle East’s wider tumult. It has not been restricted to diplomacy, either, but has played out through various means: covert, proxy, political and psychological warfare. Observers of this conflict have as a result tended to describe this state of affairs with obscure terms: “cold” war, “shadow” war, or other words that allude to the existence of an active and geopolitically consequential antagonism but imply an ambiguity that plain old “war” never could.

Why Iran's New President Won't Change His Country

Belfer Center — Jul 16, 2024

Jul 16, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar's analysis posits that yet even if Khamenei gives Pezeshkian a relatively long leash, his government is unlikely to negotiate another ambitious nuclear agreement. It will, instead, look to ink a deal that could freeze or incrementally scale back Iran's nuclear advances, including by reducing the quality and quantity of the uranium Iran enriches, in exchange for sanctions relief. Such a transactional deal would have multiple advantages for Pezeshkian. Given Khamenei's support, Iran's conservatives would be less likely to sabotage that deal than they were the 2015 agreement. And it would be easy for Tehran to ramp up its program if the United States withdraws again, as occurred under President Donald Trump in 2018.

The Non-Proliferation Problem

Belfer Center — Jul 9, 2024

Jul 9, 2024

Those harboring doubts about the viability of nuclear non-proliferation ought to consider the lessons of the past 75 years. Even if it proves impossible to contain this catastrophically destructive technology completely, a world with fewer nuclear-armed states is exponentially safer than one with many of them.

What the United States Can Learn From China

Belfer Center — Jun 20, 2024

Jun 20, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that Americans who are deeply worried about China's rise should reflect on what Beijing has done well and what Washington has done poorly.

Reducing Nuclear Dangers

Belfer Center — Jun 20, 2024

Jun 20, 2024

Matthew Bunn argues that governments need help from scientists and engineers both in understanding the dangers that nuclear weapons continue to pose and in finding paths to reduce them.

Africa In Focus Speaker Series

Belfer Center — Jun 19, 2024

Jun 19, 2024

Africa in Focus, run by the Africa Futures Project, aims to create a forum for intellectual and critical analysis of processes and policies from the continent and its engagement with the international community. Through thoughtful and dynamic programming, Africa in Focus seeks to bring more African perspectives into broader policy conversations at HKS.

Morality Is the Enemy of Peace

Belfer Center — Jun 13, 2024

Jun 13, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that once governments use moral arguments to justify their positions in international disputes, cutting a deal becomes much harder, even when it would be in everyone's interest.

The End of Soft Power?

Belfer Center — Jun 12, 2024

Jun 12, 2024

Joseph Nye argues that even as the hard power of weapons and armies resurges on the global stage, the cultivation and use of soft power will still hold currency in the twenty-first century.

The Terrorism Warning Lights Are Blinking Red Again

Belfer Center — Jun 10, 2024

Jun 10, 2024

Two and a half decades [after 9/11], Christopher Wray, the director of the FBI, is sounding similar alarms. His discussions within the Biden administration are private, but his testimony to Congress and other public statements could not be more explicit. Testifying in December to members of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Wray said, “When I sat here last year, I walked through how we were already in a heightened threat environment.” Yet after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, “we’ve seen the threat from foreign terrorists rise to a whole nother level,” he added. In speaking about those threats, Wray has repeatedly drawn attention to security gaps at the United States’ southern border, where thousands of people each week enter the country undetected.

AI and the Decision to Go to War: Future Risks and Opportunities

Belfer Center — Jun 7, 2024

Jun 7, 2024

This short article introduces our Special Issue on 'Anticipating the Future of War: AI, Automated Systems, and Resort-to-Force Decision Making'. The authors begin by stepping back and briefly commenting on the current military AI landscape. They then turn to the hitherto largely neglected prospect of AI-driven systems influencing state-level decision making on the resort to force.

Biden's Foreign-Policy Problem Is Incompetence

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that those who fetishize credibility typically assume all that is needed is sufficient resolve. This overlooks the other key ingredient— competence.

Old and New Lessons from the Ukraine War

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Joseph Nye Russia's war on Ukraine is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end. Nonetheless, the past two years have borne out several predictions concerning what does and does not work in twenty-first-century conflicts involving major powers.

When Foreign Countries Push the Button

Belfer Center — Jun 3, 2024

Jun 3, 2024

Is there a norm against using nuclear weapons? Many policymakers believe that allied countries would severely condemn a state’s nuclear use. But survey research in the United States and India finds high absolute support for nuclear use, and that the public supports nuclear attacks by allies and strategic partners as much as those by the public’s own government.

Remembering Memorial Day: We Must Avoid World War III

Belfer Center — May 24, 2024

May 24, 2024

We must avoid the successor to the grand reapers of the past century: World War I and World War II. We must avoid World War III. We should reflect on this during this Memorial Day.

Why Realists Oppose the War in Gaza

Belfer Center — May 21, 2024

May 21, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that realists oppose Israel's actions in Gaza (and U.S. complicity in them) because the combination is undermining the United States' global position and bringing the United States precisely zero strategic benefits.

The Iran-Russia Friendship Won't Wither Under Raisi's Successor

Belfer Center — May 21, 2024

May 21, 2024

Nicole Grajewski describes former Iranian President Raisi’s hardline stance and his willingness to deepen ties with Russia as assets. Collaboration with a like-minded authoritarian with a bent for confronting the West proved particularly valuable after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Day After Iran Gets the Bomb

Belfer Center — May 14, 2024

May 14, 2024

Stephen Walt explores possible scenarios if Iran acquires a nuclear capability.