Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Intelligence

Three Benghazi myths

Nicholas Burns — Fri, 17 May 2013 10:40:52 -0500

There are at least three myths that have grown up around the terrible events on Sept. 11 of last autumn.

Critics Quick to Attack Obama Administration, but its Inquiry into AP Was Justified

Juliette Kayyem — Wed, 15 May 2013 17:03:27 -0500

"...[T]he leak wasn't just an inside-the-Beltway jab at political enemies, and the story that resulted wasn't about infighting in the national security staff. The information cut to the heart of how America fights its enemies and the resources it uses to do so. An agent of ours had infiltrated a terrorist cell. He is no longer in the inner circle. The leaker may be to blame. And the investigation that has everyone up in arms was completely justified."

Marisa Porges’ Journey from Naval Flight Officer to Counterterror Expert

Wesley Nord — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:09:02 -0500

"Belfer Center Fellow Marisa Porges’ career has already spanned the worlds of academia and policymaking, the government and the military. As an undergraduate at Harvard, Porges earned honors with a degree in geophysics and, during senior year, commanded her Navy Reserve Officer Training Corps unit. After graduation, she commissioned as a naval flight officer in the U.S. Navy and managed the weapons systems aboard EA-6B Prowlers, a carrier-based electronic warfare jet.... [now] as a doctoral candidate in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London and a research fellow with the Belfer Center’s International Security Program, she now combines scholarship and practice."

Hot Off the Presses

Susan M. Lynch — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:03:27 -0500

A survey of recent books by Belfer Center affiliates.

Born Yesterday

Charles G. Cogan — Wed, 08 May 2013 19:53:59 -0500

"...[T]here are many downsides to what has happened in Afghanistan. In my view, we should have stopped hostilities in Afghanistan when bin Laden and his al-Qaeda followers escaped into Pakistan in late 2001. But it is now more than 11 years later and way past time to get out."

Boston Bombing Puts Spotlight on Security Services' Failure to Cooperate

Simon Saradzhyan — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 09:23:49 -0500

"Was the bombing of the Boston marathon the result of an intelligence failure? There seems to be no clear answer to that question yet. But it does seem to me that had there been a greater degree of trust between the US and Russian secret services, they would have been more willing to share information and act on each other’s warnings, preventing Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev from allegedly bombing the Boston marathon's finish line on April 15."

Panetta to Hillary: 'You're Flat Wrong'

Charles G. Cogan — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 17:21:38 -0500

"The issue was who was in charge of the drone program being conducted over Pakistan, the ambassador, Cameron Munter (who was present by video link) or the Station Chief. Specifically, Munter wanted to have approval power over the drone strikes. Hillary agreed. Panetta insisted otherwise."

Nation's Challenge: Terrorist Next Door

Marisa L. Porges — Sun, 21 Apr 2013 09:46:25 -0500

"Active support from and cooperation with American Muslims will be one of the most effective ways to thwart future terrorist attacks. As Saudi counterterrorism officials continually remind me, the friends and family of potential jihadists are the best form of defense against radicalization. This approach works in America, too."

A Spectator Event with No Doors

Juliette Kayyem — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 22:56:19 -0500

"The speed of evacuation, and the intensity of the response, were the products of months of planning for the Marathon. Public-safety officials were on high alert because any event with lots of people around is sure to have safety issues. But no marathon can ever be totally secure."

Kevin Ryan Heads New Defense and Intelligence Project

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:47:44 -0500

Kevin Ryan, the Belfer Center’s former executive director for research, has been named director of the Center’s Defense and Intelligence Project. The position gives Ryan lead responsibility for new initiatives focused on defense and intelligence. He will also continue to lead the Elbe Group as part of the Preventing Nuclear Terrorism project and will remain a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors.

Preliminary Considerations: On National Cyber Security

Melissa Hathaway and Alexander Klimburg — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 19:38:57 -0500

In this chapter, Melissa Hathaway and Alexander Klimburg introduce three conceptual tools to help focus the strategic context and debate. These are termed the "three dimensions," the "five mandates," and the "five dilemmas" of national cyber security. Each dimension, mandate and dilemma will play a varying role in each nation's attempt to formulate and execute a national cyber security strategy according to their specific conditions.

A War's Misleading Anniversary

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 07:12:29 -0500

"The narrative of the Iraq war has a prologue and an epilogue whose lessons are as valuable to the United States as those derived from what came in between. As for the prelude, defenders of the war have somehow successfully rewritten the story to ignore the fact that many scholars, journalists, and defense specialists were urging President Bush not to succumb to this folly."

Drones: What's the Fuss About?

Charles G. Cogan — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 16:52:15 -0600

"...[I]n Pakistan, in Yemen, in Somalia, and now seemingly in West Africa, the drones have been a reliable source of intelligence and, equipped with missiles, a lethal and potentially accurate weapon....Unquestionably, there have been a number of innocent people killed in drone attacks, either by proximity and/or mistake. But what is this in comparison to the land invasions and mass aerial bombings of the pre-drone era?"

U.S. Policy Toward Countering al-Qaeda 2.0

David Ignatius — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 10:00:40 -0600

"The Obama administration is working with its allies to frame a strategy to combat what might be called 'al-Qaeda 2.0' — an evolving, morphing terrorist threat that lacks a coherent center but is causing growing trouble in chaotic, poorly governed areas such as Libya, Yemen, Syria and Mali," writes David Ignatius.

Still in the Dark

Charles G. Cogan — Mon, 31 Dec 2012 10:31:32 -0600

"Torture was not the key element of information in the operation that led to the killing of bin Laden. But we still don't know the whole story. We're still in the dark. And there may be good security reasons for that to remain so."

A Moral Choice on Torture

David Ignatius — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 09:07:30 -0600

In a new Washington Post column, Belfer Center senior fellow David Ignatius looks at Kathryn Bigelow's newest movie, Zero Dark Thirty, about the raid that killed al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, and asks what place torture has in issues of national security and, with bin Laden dead, 'where do we go next?'

Center’s Cyber Efforts Cross Disciplines and Schools

Mon, 03 Dec 2012 07:03:22 -0600

In 2010, in collaboration with MIT and with funding from the U.S. Department of Defense, the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy program launched its “Explorations in Cyber International Relations” (ECIR) initiative. The initiative is reaching across disciplines to find solutions to the challenges of cybersecurity.

'We Must Have the Greatest Immorality, and We Must Have the Greatest Morality'

Charles G. Cogan — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 14:49:04 -0600

"Hugh Cunningham, the schoolmasterish Director of Training, who presented us a formula which, though it has a certain starry-eyed quality of the early CIA, has stuck in my mind ever since: 'We must have the greatest immorality, and we must have the greatest morality.' By which Cunningham meant that we must exercise immorality (for what can otherwise be immorality than persuading a person to betray his country), but in our personal life we must exhibit the highest standards of morality."

Giving the Surge Partial Credit for Iraq's 2007 Reduction in Violence

Stephen Biddle, Jeffrey A. Friedman and Jacob N. Shapiro — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 16:48:23 -0500

Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? Many credit the "surge," or the program of U.S. reinforcements and doctrinal changes that began in January 2007. Others cite the voluntary insurgent stand-downs of the Sunni Awakening or say that the violence had simply run its course after a wave of sectarian cleansing. Evidence drawn from recently declassified data on violence at local levels and a series of seventy structured interviews with coalition participants finds little support for the cleansing or Awakening theses. This analysis constitutes the first attempt to gather systematic evidence across space and time to help resolve this debate, and it shows that a synergistic interaction between the surge and the Awakening was required for violence to drop as quickly and widely as it did.

Inside Bibi's Bunker

Chuck Freilich — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 14:56:22 -0500

"How these debates will be resolved depends on Israel's unique policymaking process. The question of whether to strike Iran is not just up to Netanyahu: In Israel, like other parliamentary democracies, the premier is merely "first among equals" — not the chief executive or commander in chief, as in the United States. With the exception of very limited circumstances, such as responding to imminent attacks, the Israeli prime minister requires cabinet approval for all national security decisions."

Containing Iran: Strategies for Addressing the Iranian Nuclear Challenge

Robert Reardon — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 17:19:02 -0500

This study assesses current U.S. policy options on the Iranian nuclear question. It suggests that U.S. goals can be met through patient and forward-looking policymaking. Specifically, the United States can begin to lay the groundwork for an effective containment policy while continuing efforts to forestall Iranian weaponization. A successful containment policy will promote long-term positive political change in Iran while avoiding counterproductive provocation.

Dead Men Share No Secrets

Marisa L. Porges — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 08:10:25 -0500

"But this one-sided approach — always opting to kill instead of capture — is a major weakness of America's current approach to counterterrorism. It deprives us of significant amounts of intelligence about what Al Qaeda is thinking and planning, and information that could help find other senior terrorists. After all, it was intelligence from a detainee that helped American forces track down Bin Laden."

Syria’s Eerie Parallel to 1980s Afghanistan

David Ignatius — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 09:36:38 -0500

David Ignatius writes that the United States and its allies "are moving in Syria toward a program of covert support for the rebels that, for better or worse, looks very much like what America and its friends did in Afghanistan in the 1980s."

The Haqqani Network: The Background

Charles G. Cogan — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 14:34:57 -0500

"...[T]here was no aid furnished directly by the CIA to the mujahidin groups fighting the Soviets. It was done essentially through the Pakistani military intelligence service, the ISI."

Re-Open the 9/11 Investigation New

Bob Graham and Sharon Premoli — Tue, 11 Sep 2012 09:12:31 -0500

"The passage of time since September 11, 2001, has not diminished the distrust many of us feel surrounding the official story of how 9/11 happened and, more specifically, who financed and supported it. After eleven years, the time has come for the families of the victims, the survivors and all Americans to get the whole story behind 9/11."

Too Soon... Too Soon... Too Late!

Chuck Freilich — Tue, 04 Sep 2012 16:15:42 -0500

"If Obama is elected, but maybe not if Romney is, there may still be time for one last diplomatic push, but only if backed up with a clear threat and deadline, and the US should put a far more generous proposal on the table, so that no one can argue that it has not fully tried. Simply strengthening sanctions will no longer cut it, it is too late for that."

Unleashing the Nuclear Watchdog: Strengthening and Reform of the IAEA

Trevor Findlay — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 20:23:01 -0500

This report marks the culmination of a two-year research project that examined all aspects of the mandate and operations of the International Atomic Energy Agency, from major programs on safeguards, safety, security, and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy to governance, management, and finance.

Unleashing the Nuclear Watchdog: Strengthening and Reform of the IAEA

Trevor Findlay — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 18:28:00 -0500

Published along with the report Unleashing the Nuclear Watchdog: Strengthening and Reform of the IAEA — the result of more than two years of research and examining all aspects of the Agency's mandate and operations — this policy brief summarizes the report's key findings and policy recommendations for strengthening and reforming the IAEA.

A Plot Foiled, but a US Agency Rift Exposed

Juliette Kayyem — Thu, 10 May 2012 16:59:10 -0500

"The CIA disrupted this latest plot, then got much of the attention. It utilized long-established and very complicated intelligence tactics. Unfortunately, the extent of our infiltration of Al Qaeda has now been exposed. The leaks clearly came from someone intimately involved with the operation; the details are too exacting."

When We Wage Cyberwar, the Whole Web Suffers

Susan P. Crawford — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 19:21:53 -0500

"Purveyors of cyberfear are going in the opposite direction. They are not interested in engaging with other countries to come up with codes of online conduct or to translate the Geneva Conventions for cyberspace — so as to avoid collateral damage and protect hospitals, electrical grids, and so on. They want to be able to change ones to zeros on servers around the globe, whatever that means for speech and commerce at home and worldwide."