Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - International Relations

Will US-Japan Alliance Survive?

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:01:49 -0400

"...[T]he U.S.-Japan alliance will have to face a new set of transnational challenges to our vital interests, such as pandemics, terrorism, and human outflows from failed states. Chief among these challenges is the threat posed by global warming, with China having surpassed the U.S. as the leading producer of carbon-dioxide emissions (though not in per capita terms)."

Hoping the Next 100 Days Go Better

Chuck Freilich — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:28:12 -0400

"...[I]t was clear from day one that Obama intended to reach out to the Arab world and attempt a breakthrough toward peace. Netanyahu, who professes to 'understand American,' should have done everything in his power to align himself with the new administration's agenda. Instead, his obstinacy led to a glaring crack in relations with the US, a cardinal pillar of Israeli national security, and exposed an unprecedented degree of mutual alienation."

Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Securing Pakistani Nuclear Weapons

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 16:55:59 -0400

"The problem is not the quality of Pakistan's nuclear security efforts. The problem is that the standard for success is so unforgiving. In a world in which terrorists are actively seeking weapons of mass destruction, there can be no breakdown in security that enables terrorists to obtain a nuclear bomb."

Obama's Style Trumps Substance, Again

Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:32:45 -0400

"The tone of U.S.-Russian diplomacy was much improved, and Obama is returning to Washington with several concrete agreements, but the summit did not yield a significant breakthrough on any major issue. In fact, like much of Obama's foreign policy to date, the Moscow summit was as much a triumph of style and attitude as an achievement in terms of substance. Russian-American relations may now be headed in the right direction, but both sides have a long way to go."

Ending North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions: The Need for Stronger Chinese Action

Hui Zhang — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:32:10 -0400

North Korea has recently taken a series of provocative steps to challenge the international community. If unchecked, North Korea will surely increase the quantity and quality of its arsenal. Even worse, once Pyongyang has more than enough weapons for its deterrent, it might be tempted to sell the surplus. The longer the crisis lasts, the more nuclear capable North Korea will become and the more difficult it will be to roll back Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. A nuclear North Korea would put China's national interests at great risk. Beijing can increase pressure on Pyongyang, using positive inducements and punitive measures. The chances are low, however, that Beijing will radically adjust its North Korea policy, at least for the near future. Beijing will continue to maintain its bottom-line approach, avoiding war on the Korean peninsula and an abrupt collapse of the Kim regime. From China's perspective, these scenarios must be avoided at all costs because they are contrary to China's primary interest in a stable environment.

Hypocritical Kvetching

Rami Khouri — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:32:40 -0400

Negotiating with Iran cannot be any more difficult than it was with the Soviet Union. So why the hesitancy -- and the anguished, hypocritical debate in the West?

Nuclear Security in Pakistan: Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Terrorism

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:20:57 -0400

"The greatest threat of a loose nuke scenario stems from insiders in the nuclear establishment working with outsiders, people seeking a bomb or material to make a bomb. Nowhere in the world is this threat greater than in Pakistan."

Do not count on the Tories winning just yet

Niall Ferguson — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:05:45 -0400

"Most commentators assume that whenever the election happens it will be won by the Conservatives. The Labour party had its worst performance in the recent elections since 1910. As in the 1990s, the electorate is sick of the incumbent party. Just as the Labour party had young, telegenic Tony Blair in 1997, so the Tories today have young, telegenic David Cameron.

Yet this is to overstate the strength of the Conservative position."

Joseph Nye's Testimony from Hearings on 'Japan's Changing Role'

Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:05:36 -0400

Joseph S. Nye testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and the Global Environment on "Japan's Changing Role" on June 25, 2009.

The Return of Economic Nationalism

Eric Kaufmann — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:13:23 -0400

"...[E]conomic nationalists sacrifice material consumption for the national pride that comes with being a creditor nation that owns foreign assets. On this logic, the U.S. trade imbalance cannot be rectified by the marketplace alone....This sticks in the throat of those who prize national self-sufficiency and the moral fiber that comes from saving more than one spends....Traces of economic nationalism survive in America. It is no accident that the most successful U.S. vehicles are trucks, powerful symbols of rural and working-class masculine patriotism. That GM and Chrysler are being bailed out is partly because their products have been immortalized in song and film as national icons."

Don't Play Nuclear Chicken with a Desperate Pariah

Hui Zhang — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:25:21 -0400

"This game of escalation will go on and on until North Korea gets what it desires most from Washington: a reliable security assurance. Of course, no one likes to yield to dictators. But ultimately, playing chicken with a desperate and nuclear-armed North Korea is too risky to endeavor. The more isolated the North Koreans become, the more likely they will be to use the nuclear card in threatening two hostages: South Korea and Japan. Everyone loses that game"

Foreign Students are an Opportunity, Not a Threat

Azeem Ibrahim — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:42:45 -0400

"...[W]e should resist the temptation to react to the fear of terrorism by turning inwards, reducing ties to foreign countries, and denying more students entry. Reducing the number of foreign student Visas would be counterproductive. The US tried it after September 11th, but has now reversed its approach, realising the harm it is doing. To do the same would be to be cowed into becoming a more closed society. We must remain open, outward-looking and vibrant. It is precisely many of these foreign students who will help their countries to reduce terrorism over the long run."

Improving Russia-U.S. Relations: The Next Steps

Thomas M. Nichols — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 22:22:40 -0400

There is no endemic reason for Russian-U.S. relations to be as tense as they have become over the past several years. Th is situation is largely due, on one side, to mishandling of Russian affairs by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, and on the other by the obvious manipulation of anti-Americanism for domestic gain by the Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev administrations in Russia. Unfortunately, this means that only unilateral U.S. action can undermine the cynical policies of the Russian leadership and restore dynamism to the Russian-U.S. relationship.

Bibi Answers Obama

Chuck Freilich — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:29:42 -0400

"In his recent speech to the Muslim world, Obama set a new course for U.S. policy in the region and in so doing challenged Netanyahu to join him in the effort, or risk American ire. Poor Bibi. During his first two months, he caused gratuitous tension with Obama by refusing to explicitly endorse a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and thereby convinced many that Israel, rather than the Palestinians, is the obstacle. Bibi knows that he cannot afford confrontation and that Israel must align itself with any administration."

What Comes Around Goes Around

Rami Khouri — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:28:07 -0400

Changes in American policies and rhetoric are already triggering intriguing responses from different parts of the Middle East, as we can see in four separate issues: Lebanon, Palestine-Israel, Iran, and American attitudes toward Islam and Muslims.

How Do You Teach and Learn Successful Leadership in a Democracy?

Joseph S. Nye — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 15:25:30 -0400

"[W]hatever the failures of particular British legislators, the issues go further than merely allowing voters to "throw the rascals out." There is also a question of how successful leadership is taught and learned in a democracy. A successful democracy requires leadership to be widespread throughout government and civil society. Citizens who express concern about leadership need to learn not only how to judge it, but how to practice it themselves."

Observations on the Recent United Nations Security Council Resolution on North Korea

William H. Tobey — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 16:16:17 -0400

On June 12, 2009, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1874 in response to recent provocative actions by North Korea, including a second nuclear test. Chinese and Russian support for a new U.N. Security Council resolution that imposes additional sanctions is potentially significant. However, whether China in particular will support tough implementation of the resolution and will take a harder line in its bilateral relations with North Korea remains to be seen, and will ultimately determine the success or failure of efforts to reverse North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

The List: Iran's Presidential Wannabes

Kayhan Barzegar — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:33:42 -0400

Research Fellow Kayhan Barzegar describes the four candidates for the Iranian presidency (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezai) in terms of their credentials, power base, and stances on domestic politics and foreign policy—including the Iranian nuclear program.

China Should Abandon All-Carrot Approach

Hui Zhang — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 16:32:50 -0400

June 9, 2009

Hui Zhang's Op-Ed, "China Should Abandon All-Carrot Approach," was published in The Global Times, Beijing. In the Op-Ed Zhang argues "China should show its willingness to contribute to international nonproliferation efforts," by "abandon[ing] its temperate approach to North Korea."

The Two-State Trap in the Mideast

Ehud Eiran and Nir Eisikovits — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 12:00:06 -0400

"...A weak (or even worse, a failed) Palestinian state next to Israel will most likely lead not to the end of violence, but rather to its perpetuation. This is also a dangerous dichotomy, as it does not leave room for failure despite the fact that failure may come. The Palestinian national movement is deeply divided, and the Israeli public fears — based on the lessons of the withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza — that leaving the West Bank would compromise its security. The logical conclusion from presenting a binary map for the future — two states or war — when a two-state option is highly unlikely, is that the proposed frame has a great potential to destabilize the situation, rather than calm it.

Obama’s Worthy Gesture

Rami Khouri — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:54:13 -0400

In his speech in Cairo, Barack Obama sought a new beginning, which we all badly need. So let's put away the Bible and Quran classes, hear from Arab, Iranian and Israeli leaders -- and get down to the tough business of forging better policies.

We Need a Debate on Europe

Azeem Ibrahim — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:30:10 -0400

"...[M]ore of us want to leave than ever before. More than half want the UK to leave the EU but keep trading links, according to a recent BBC survey. More authoritative polling from the Economist still shows that over the last fourteen years, the number of us wanting to loosen the UK's ties to the EU has also risen to over 50 per cent. In the BBC's survey, a full 84 per cent agreed that Britain should vote before transferring any more power to the EU....nobody born after 1957 has ever been able to vote on it. Even those who voted to stay in in 1975 did not realise just how many regulations we would subsequently have to follow, and how much they would cost British business."

Obama Should Think Chicago

Rami Khouri — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:04:25 -0400

Obama should focus on three significant issues: 1- the Arab-Israeli conflict, 2- the "resistance front" headed by Syria, Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas, and 3- the lack of democratic, rule-of-law-based governance systems in most Arab countries. And he should tell us what America wants to do about these three issues.

US and China Must Stand Up to N. Korea

Martin B. Malin and Hui Zhang — Sun, 31 May 2009 01:17:18 -0400

"To facilitate enhanced Chinese support for North Korean denuclearization, Washington should also address some of Beijing's security concerns, including US-Japanese missile defense cooperation and sales of missile defense capabilities to Taiwan. The United States and China could also offer one another specific assurances regarding military deployments on the Korean peninsula. Even in the event of a North Korean collapse, the United States has no intention of moving its forces to the Chinese border; it would reduce Beijing's concerns if Washington said so."

North Korea won't fire nuke ... but could sell one to Osama

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 May 2009 10:16:33 -0400

"The challenge for President Obama, Prime Minister Brown, members of the UN Security Council and the international community is to convince Kim Jong-il that he faces disastrous consequences."

Economic Experts Suggest Causes, Next Steps for Economy

Sasha Talcott — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:20:29 -0400

Global leaders are facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Though Lawrence Summers, on leave from Harvard Kennedy School and the Belfer Center to serve as director of the National Economic Council, predicted that the sense of "freefall" may end in the next several months, a recovery is likely to still be some distance away. Belfer Center experts offer their thoughts on where the situation is headed, and what policymakers should do now.

From the Director

Graham Allison — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:16:49 -0400

For a Center committed to advancing policy-relevant knowledge about the most important international challenges, the current avalanche of seemingly insurmountable challenges is a time of great excitement.

Paula Dobriansky and John Gieve Named Senior Fellows

Beth Maclin — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:15:32 -0400

Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, under secretary of state for democracy and global affairs under President George W. Bush, and Sir John Gieve, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, have joined the Belfer Center as senior fellows.

More Members of Belfer Center Community Head to Washington

Beth Maclin — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:14:25 -0400

As President Obama continues to fill crucial positions in his administration, the Belfer Center finds its own list of current and former faculty, fellows, and staff going to Washington, D.C. getting longer. Newly announced members of the Belfer Center community include the following. For a full list of Center members serving the government, see http://belfercenter.org/governmentappointments

Featured Fellows: Thomas Hegghammer and Maya Tudor

Thomas Hegghammer and Maya Tudor — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:12:54 -0400

Belfer Center Research Fellows Thomas Hegghammer and Maya Tudor conduct policy-relevant research.