Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - International Relations

Iran, New Iraq and the Persian Gulf Political-Security Architecture

Kayhan Barzegar — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:28:28 -0500

This article investigates the necessity of establishing a new political-security arrangement in the Persian Gulf region in the light of new political developments in the region after the 2003 Iraq crisis. The author argues that following the recent political-security changes in the region and with the shift of Iraq's role from its previous threatening position, together with the prospect of building a friendly coalition between Iran and Iraq, the formation of new political-security architecture is inevitable in the Persian Gulf region. The new arrangement has to be based on the new political-security, cultural and economic realities. The author also argues that the nature of security threat in the region has changed. Under the new circumstances, instead of hard inter-states rivalries, the security challenges are more centered in human security and nations' political demands and expectations. Dealing with these new situations requires establishing mutual cooperation in the region.

Follow the Leader: We Must Go Beyond the 'Big Man' Approach

Joseph S. Nye — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:25:32 -0500

"History is often written in terms of military heroes, but the enormous potential of human leadership ranges from Attila the Hun to Mother Teresa. Most everyday leaders remain unheralded. The role of heroic leadership in war leads to overemphasis of command and control and hard military power. In America today, the presidential debate is between Senator John McCain, a war hero, and Senator Barack Obama, a former community organizer.

The image of the warrior leader lingers in modern times. Writer Robert Kaplan points to the birth of a new "warrior class as cruel as ever and better armed," ranging from Russian Mafiosi and Latin American drug kingpins to terrorists who glorify violence just as ancient Greeks did in the sacking of Troy....Indeed, an oversimplified image of warrior-style leadership in President George W. Bush's first term caused costly setbacks for America's role in the world...."

Joseph Nye on Smart Power in Iran-U.S. Relations

Joseph S. Nye and Kayhan Barzegar — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:32:33 -0500

This interview elaborates on the applicability of Nye’s theory of “smart power” in the context of the Middle East and particularly Iran. The discussion further pushes the boundaries on how the current U.S policymakers should take into account soft and smart power towards Iran.

Nye: “… if the Americans, in efforts to try to stop the Iranian’s nuclear weapons program, were to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran, they might gain a few years of slowing down the nuclear weapons program but they would lose the whole generation of younger Iranians who would respond in a nationalistic way. So I think that would be a very large cost for a very limited benefit.”

Why U.S. Could Lose Out on India Nuclear Trade

Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:00:31 -0500

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed by Brajesh Upadhyay for BBC News on July 11 regarding the implications of the U.S.-India nuclear deal for international trade.

Indo-Israeli Relations: Key Security Implications

Ronak D. Desai and Xenia Dormandy — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:33 -0500

Following more than forty years of diplomatic estrangement, the last decade has witnessed India and Israel embark on a new multidimensional "strategic partnership." What are the implications of growing ties between these two countries for India and the United States?

Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict

Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 23:24:05 -0500

The historical record indicates that nonviolent campaigns have been more successful than armed campaigns in achieving ultimate goals in political struggles, even when used against similar opponents and in the face of repression. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to win legitimacy, attract widespread domestic and international support, neutralize the opponent's security forces, and compel loyalty shifts among erstwhile opponent supporters than are armed campaigns, which enjoin the active support of a relatively small number of people, offer the opponent a justification for violent counterattacks, and are less likely to prompt loyalty shifts and defections. An original, aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 is used to test these claims. These dynamics are further explored in case studies of resistance campaigns in Southeast Asia that have featured periods of both violent and nonviolent resistance.

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How American Treaty Behavior Threatens National Security

Antonia Chayes — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:39:47 -0500

In recent years, American treaty behavior has produced growing concern among both allies and less friendly nations. On such fundamental issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, human rights, civil liberties, environmental disasters, and commerce, the United States has generated confusion and anger abroad. Such a climate is not conducive to needed cooperation in the conduct of foreign and security policy. Among U.S. actions that have caused concern are the failure to ratify several treaties; the attachment of reservations, understandings, and declarations before ratification; the failure to support a treaty regime once ratified; and treaty withdrawal. The structural and historical reasons for American treaty behavior are deeply rooted in the United States' system of government and do not merely reflect superpower arrogance.

Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz

Caitlin Talmadge — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:54:40 -0500

How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.

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Correspondence: Of Polarity and Polarization

Joseph M. Parent, Joseph Bafumi, Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:09:18 -0500

Joseph Parent and Joseph Bafumi reply to the Fall 2007 International Security article, "Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States," by Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz.

Pakistan Needs More Democracy to Transcend Musharraf

Hassan Abbas — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:17:05 -0500

"Following its recent free elections, Pakistan is rebounding politically. But the euphoria that came with the end of the Musharraf era is wearing off, as the new government faces stark choices. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy is not new to the 60-year-old state, but ethnic cleavages, weak institutions, and religious extremism in the North are perennially destabilizing. And, while the new government settles in and establishes its priorities, the West, especially the United States, must reassess the impact of its past dealings with Pakistan...."

Joseph Nye on Smart Power

Doug Gavel and Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 20:10:38 -0500

The days of American hegemony on the world stage appear to be waning. The rise of other global powers, the diffusion of economic and human capital, and the increasingly powerful influences being exerted by non-state actors — including terrorists — have ushered in a new era in geopolitics. Joseph Nye is university distinguished service professor and Sultan of Oman professor of international relations. He is the author of many books and articles on international relations, including his most recent book, “The Powers to Lead.”

The Path through Pakistan to a Shorter War on Terror

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:00:04 -0500

In the 'epicenter of terrorism,' democracy will benefit from an ease in US military pressure.

A Disastrous Attack on Iran?

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:14:58 -0500

"...Only if the US proves to both domestic and world opinion that it has exhausted all diplomatic possibilities, will it gain support for major economic sanctions, let alone future military action. Iran will probably reject the offer, as it has all others, but we will only know if the option is pursued and it is a vital way station on the road to stronger measures. Talking to Iran does not imply acquiescence, or appeasement."

Who Will Have the Courage to Save Zimbabwe?

Robert Rotberg — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 09:23:31 -0500

June 25, 2008

AFTER Idi Amin terrorized and killed his own Ugandans throughout the 1970s, President Julius Nyerere of neighboring Tanzania finally sent his army across the border to end the mayhem and restore stability. Who will now do the same for beleaguered Zimbabwe?

Separatism's Final Country

Richard N. Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 12:54:01 -0500

"Muller argues that ethnonationalism is the wave of the future and will result in more and more independent states, but this is not likely. One of the most destabilizing ideas throughout human history has been that every separately defined cultural unit should have its own state. Endless disruption and political introversion would follow an attempt to realize such a goal. Woodrow Wilson gave an impetus to further state creation when he argued for "national self-determination" as a means of preventing more nationalist conflict, which he believed was a cause of World War I...."

Japan and African States Discuss Future Partnership

Calestous Juma — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 12:44:03 -0500

Japan announced it will double its aid to Africa over the next five year at the Fourth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD IV) held in Yokohama on May 28–30, 2008....TICAD IV marked a clear departure from previous development conferences, which focused largely on Africa’s immediate crises and challenges, such as corruption and poor governance. Instead, it stressed the importance of human resource development (including higher education and vocational training), industrial development, infrastructure, and trade.

Size Matters

Richard N. Rosecrance — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 17:22:33 -0500

"As the American political system hurtles toward its quadrennial encounter with the oracle of democracy, it is worth our while to take stock of the country's place in a world beset by bewilderingly rapid change. (Heaven knows none of the candidates will bother to do this.) I want to suggest that an old yet generally neglected subject remains particularly relevant: the relationship between the size of political units and the effective scale of systems of economic production and exchange. Another way to describe this relationship is by recourse to the hoary scholarly phrase "political economy", a term of art that has unfortunately gone out of style...."

Balancing Asia's Rivals

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:36:35 -0500

"...Bush leaves behind a better legacy in Asia. American relations with Japan and China remain strong, and he has greatly enhanced the United States' ties with India, the world's second most populous country....Improved relations between India and the U.S. can structure the international situation in a manner that encourages such an evolution in Chinese policy, whereas trying to isolate China would be a mistake.

Handled properly, the simultaneous rise of China and India could be good for all countries."

Attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan Highlight Instability

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:00:42 -0500

June 9, 2008

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed for The News Hour with Jim Lehrer on June 9, 2008 regarding instability along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Is There a New U.S. Policy for Pakistan?

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:00:20 -0500

"How much will the War on Terror define the new President’s agenda towards Pakistan, as it has President Bush’s? What will this mean for America’s broader policy toward the country, and what are the implications, if any, for India?"

Why Islam Lies at the Heart of Iraq's Civil War

Monica Duffy Toft — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:36:05 -0500

"...[N]ot until 2007 did the Pentagon acknowledge that Iraqi sectarian violence had crossed a threshold to become a civil war.

But policymakers still haven't come to terms with the implications of that fact. If they did, they'd see that a wisely executed withdrawal of US-led forces could well be the surest path to peace. That's because withdrawal is likely to transform the fighting in Iraq into a defensive struggle for power in a nation-state, as opposed to an offensive battle rooted in religion."

The Truth about Food

Robert Paarlberg — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 20:37:44 -0500

"...it is a mistake to see high prices as a proxy for actual hunger. Most of the world's hungry citizens do not get their food from the world market, and most who rely on the world market are not poor or vulnerable to hunger."

Net Access for African Universities Would Boost Continent

Calestous Juma — Thu, 29 May 2008 19:48:25 -0500

"African universities could be the continent's gateways into the global knowledge economy for local diffusion of new technologies. But this potential remains unrealized because universities and research institutes in Africa remain digitally isolated from the rest of the world. This is partly because of government neglect and lack of strategic policies on Internet access....Providing low-cost, high-speed Internet access to African universities will help Africa build the capacity it needs to solve its own problems. It is one of the most strategic investments that the G-8 countries can make in Africa in the coming few years."

Your Government Failed You: Breaking the Cycle of National Security Disasters

Richard Clarke — Thu, 29 May 2008 10:11:03 -0500

May 29, 2008

It's not just Bush and Cheney that are to blame. The system is broken. That's the message in this provocative sequel to Against All Enemies. When Richard Clarke apologized for 9-11, he never thought that there would be so many more government failures in so short a time, but climate change, Katrina, the struggle with al Qaeda, the insecurity in cyberspace, and the failure of homeland security all bespeak a larger problem, a systemic failure. Clarke documents the failures and suggests solutions for making government work better in its most important job, protecting us.

Israel's Friends and the Path to Peace

John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 20 May 2008 20:39:33 -0500

This letter was written in response to Jeffrey Goldberg's op-ed, "Israel's 'American Problem' " which was published on May 18, 2008.

The Future of the International Whaling Commission: Strengthening Ocean Diplomacy

Calestous Juma — Fri, 16 May 2008 19:27:13 -0500

"Whales symbolize divergent issues ranging from science-based management of natural resources to moral considerations associated with our relationship with the natural world....While much work has been done on the management of terrestrial ecosystems, there is growing concern over the state of the world's oceans and the limited number of comprehensive international regimes that can address critical issues such as the resources that lie beyond national jurisdiction. This problem is compounded by scientific uncertainties associated with the current state of knowledge of marine ecosystems.

But these uncertainties also represent opportunities to position the International Whaling Commission as a flagship organization in ocean diplomacy and science-based conservation and management...."

Future of Japan-US Alliance

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 12 May 2008 15:09:04 -0500

"The U.S. regards a triangular Japan-China-U.S. relationship as the basis of stability in East Asia, and wants good relations between all three of its legs. But the triangle is not equilateral, because the U.S. is allied with Japan, and China need not become a threat to either country if they maintain that alliance....a wise policy combines realism with liberalism. By reinforcing their alliance, the U.S. and Japan can hedge against uncertainty while at the same time offering China integration into global institutions as a "responsible stakeholder."

Hillary and the Gender Wars

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 10 May 2008 14:08:01 -0500

"Hillary Clinton's tenacious presidential campaign—holding on after the pundits have declared her finished—has focused attention on the important issue of women and leadership. From her unexpected tears in New Hampshire in February to her expertise on defense to her dogged refusal to cave under pressure, Clinton is challenging old stereotypes and sparking a national conversation on a key question: does gender still matter when it comes to picking the president? The old stereotypes maintain that men favor the hard power of command, while women are more collaborative and intuitively understand the soft power of attraction. Most Americans still tend to describe leadership in traditionally male terms. But studies show that successful leadership may now require what was once considered a "feminine" style...."

U.S. Worry Grows over Pakistan's Tribal Peace Deal

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:34:47 -0500

May 6, 2008

Jackie Northam of NPR interviews Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, regarding the new Pakistani government's negotiations with militants tied to al Qaeda.

The Shia Factor

Kayhan Barzegar — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 21:13:46 -0500

The new rivalry between two main Muslim communities is the result of the political developments in Iraq. The pragmatic relationship between Iran and the Shia factions in other countries. The fears of Sunni regimes of a Shia crescent moon.