Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - International Security And Defense

South Korea's Growing Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:27:13 -0500

"...South Korea has the resources to produce soft power, and its soft power is not prisoner to the geographical limitations that have constrained its hard power throughout its history. As a result, South Korea is beginning to design a foreign policy that will allow it to play a larger role in the international institutions and networks that will be essential to global governance."

The Big Impact of Small Footprints

Thomas Hegghammer — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:00:56 -0500

"The power of small incidents has increased in the past decade thanks to the Internet. Increasing bandwidth, cheaper digital cameras and fast-learning activists have turned the world wide web into a giant propaganda tool which can generate powerful visual messages and project them instantly to a global audience. The smallest detail can be dramatically enlarged and turned into a symbol of 'Muslim suffering at the hands of non-Muslims.' On jihadi discussion forums such as Faloja (named after the Iraqi city whose 2004 battles between jihadis and U.S. forces made it an icon of Muslim suffering), high-quality video productions appear on a daily basis. The relationship between objective physical destruction and jihadi mobilization has never been less linear."

Afghanistan is Neither Vietnam nor Iraq

William H. Tobey — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:27:48 -0500

"Afghanistan has little in common with either Vietnam or Iraq in terms of history, geography, culture, or politics. There is, however, a more apt analogy, and it involves the very area in dispute."

Muddling Through: How Development's Past Shapes Its Future

David Ekbladh — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:45:35 -0500

International development is back. President Barack Obama has given it significance in U.S. strategy not seen since the Cold War. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's much touted "Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review," emphasizes her own belief that it is, "a core pillar of American power."

In Afghanistan, Kerry Keeps U.S. Goals Modest

Graham Allison — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:46:32 -0500

"President Obama confronts the most fateful foreign policy decision so far of his administration," says Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. "Rapidly deteriorating security in Afghanistan, the post-election political crisis in Kabul, highlighted by Abdullah Abdullah's decision to drop out of the runoff vote, and General Stanley McChrystal's request for 44,000 troops rightly spurred Obama to call a timeout for reflection."

Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars

Monica Duffy Toft — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:23:36 -0500

"Using comprehensive data on internal conflicts, Toft challenges the flawed assumptions driving international peacemaking diplomacy and peacekeeping operations, which sadly may be prolonging civil wars instead of ending them. This provocative and politically incorrect book ought to stimulate a long-needed debate over the efficacy of current approaches to ending conflicts." - Andrew Natsios, Georgetown University

Petraeus, not Westmoreland

Ben Heineman — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:25:59 -0500

"I think it is the grappling with important problems with greater-than-expected candor, genuine authenticity and extraordinary sacrifice that accounts for the military's high standing. The chosen military messengers often convey that. Can we say the same of other sectors of society: hard problems, candor, authenticity, sacrifice?"

A Middle Way, Best Solution to Nuclear Crisis

Kayhan Barzegar — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:53:42 -0500

"Although it is difficult under the current circumstances to predict Iran's response to the agreement, but all signs point to a middle way, which if chosen carefully, could be positive and in line with Iran's national interests. In fact, if Iran kept part of the enriched uranium in the country and sent the rest to another country, it would pave the way for the continuation of cooperation."

Hard Decisions on Soft Power: Opportunities and Difficulties for Chinese Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye and Wang Jisi — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:34:09 -0400

"But just as China's economic and military power does not yet match that of the United States, China's soft power still has a long way to go as demonstrated by a Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll. China does not have cultural industries like Hollywood, and its universities are not yet the equal of the United States. It lacks the many non-governmental organizations that generate much of US soft power. Politically, China suffers from corruption, inequality, and a lack of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. While that may make the "Beijing consensus" attractive in authoritarian and semi-authoritarian developing countries, it undercuts China's soft power in the West. Although China's new diplomacy has enhanced its attractiveness to its neighbors in Southeast Asia, the belligerence of its hard power stance toward Taiwan hurt it in Europe when China sought to persuade Europeans to relax their embargo on the sale of arms. Given the domestic problems that China must still overcome, there are limits to China's ability to attract others, but one would be foolish to ignore the gains the country is making."

The Future of Pakistan: A Conversation with Simon Shercliff and Hassan Abbas

Hassan Abbas and Simon Shercliff — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:09:32 -0400

October 30, 2009

Hassan Abbas, a former Pakistani government official and senior advisor to Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, recently spoke to Simon Shercliff, First Secretary Foreign Security and Policy for the British Embassy, about the future of Pakistan. Their conversation touched on a range of topics, including the militants' recent attacks on the Pakistani military, Pakistan's relationship with India, Pakistan-UK relations, and U.S. aid to Pakistan.

Testing the NATO Alliance: Afghanistan and the Future of Cooperation

Azeem Ibrahim — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:15:01 -0400

"...[O]n the ground, Afghanistan does not look like a NATO mission, but a deployment of an ad hoc alliance. This impression is bolstered given that eight non-NATO countries are also contributing troops. This arrangement calls into question how genuine and useful the alliance will be in the future. It is no good to argue that NATO countries should share the burden more equally. That will not be enough to persuade skeptical governments to offer more troops. The truth is that the differences in deployment levels reflect real differences of public and political opinion. Unfortunately, there is no reason to expect that they should agree in the future either, as there is no longer agreement on what constitutes NATO's mission in Afghanistan."

Afghans Need to Find a New Model of Democracy

Paul Fishstein — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:03:34 -0400

"While democracy is notoriously difficult to define, it is generally considered to be something positive. Until the debacle of the August presidential elections, 'fledgling democracy' was touted as one of the west's great achievements in Afghanistan."

War From Cyberspace

Richard Clarke — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:12:17 -0400

October 27, 2009

The United States thinks that its cyber warriors are the best at offense, with the capability of shutting down enemy air defenses, electric-power grids, rail systems and telephony. Such offensive prowess does nothing to defend our own networks from similar attacks, however, and the current U.S. defense systems protect only parts of the federal government, and not civilian or private-sector infrastructure. No nation is as dependent on cyber systems and networks for the operation of its infrastructure, economy and military as the United States. Yet, few national governments have less control over what goes on in its cyberspace than Washington.

High Cost, Low Odds

Stephen M. Walt — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:34:44 -0400

"...America's odds of winning this war are slim. The Karzai government is corrupt, incompetent and resistant to reform. The Taliban have sanctuaries in Pakistan and can hide among the local populace, making it possible for them simply to outlast us. Pakistan has backed the Afghan Taliban in the past and is not a reliable partner now. Our European allies are war-weary and looking for the exits. The more troops we send and the more we interfere in Afghan affairs, the more we look like foreign occupiers and the more resistance we will face. There is therefore little reason to expect a US victory."

U.S., Russia Must Lead on Arms Control

General Brent Scowcroft, Joseph S. Nye, R. Nicholas Burns and Strobe Talbott — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:10:15 -0400

"The Nobel Peace Prize Committee cited Obama's dedication to arms control and nonproliferation when announcing last Friday his selection as this year's laureate. If he creates a positive, mutually reinforcing dynamic in the way he presents and sequences the two treaties [NPT and CTBT], it will give momentum and coherence to follow-on negotiations and the agreements that they produce."

Obama's Nuclear Agenda

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:45:06 -0400

"So long as the world remains a dangerous place with several nuclear weapons states, Obama must reassure its allies about the credibility of American guarantees of extended deterrence. Otherwise, reductions that create anxieties in other countries could lead them to develop their own weapons and thus increase the number of nuclear weapons states."

Correspondence: Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War

Dan Reiter, Allan Stam and Alexander B. Downes — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:06:30 -0400

Dan Reiter and Allan Stam respond to Alexander Downes's Spring 2009 article "How Smart and Tough Are Democracies? Reassessing Theories of Democratic Victory in War."

Transformative Choices: Leaders and the Origins of Intervention Strategy

Elizabeth N. Saunders — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:59:50 -0400

When and why do great powers seek to transform foreign institutions and societies through military interventions? What role does executive leadership play in influencing the choice of intervention strategy, especially the degree to which an intervention interferes in the domestic institutions of the target state?

China's Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response

Robert Ross — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:41:58 -0400

Recent developments in Chinese politics and defense policy indicate that China will soon embark on an ambitious maritime policy that will include construction of a power-projection navy centered on an aircraft carrier. But just as nationalism and the pursuit of status encouraged past land powers to seek great power maritime capabilities, widespread nationalism, growing social instability, and the leadership's concern for its political legitimacy drive China's naval ambition.

Bad Debts: Assessing China's Financial Influence in Great Power Politics

Daniel W. Drezner — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:17:12 -0400

Commentators and policymakers have articulated growing concerns about U.S. dependence on China and other authoritarian capitalist states as a source of credit to fund the United States' trade and budget deficits. What are the security implications of China's creditor status? If Beijing or another sovereign creditor were to flex its financial muscles, would Washington buckle?

AIPAC, J Street, or JDate?

Chuck Freilich — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 12:38:44 -0400

"Those Jewish Americans, who share a deep concern for Israel's trials and travails, have the right, even the duty, to express their criticism within the Jewish community, the public at large, pretty much anywhere — except before the administration and Congress. There, we have to present one voice — not "pro" every Israeli policy, but united, unswerving support for Israel and a strong US-Israel relationship."

Deciphering the Attack on Pakistan's Army Headquarters

Hassan Abbas — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 12:44:00 -0400

"This was neither the first attack on an army structure in the country nor the most deadly — but it is unprecedented given the extent of the breach of the GHQ security, the confusion that it created in its initial stage (raising concerns about the safety of army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani), and its timing vis-à-vis the planned launch of a ground military operation in South Waziristan. It could be a transformational event for the army — cementing its resolve against local militants, bridging internal divisions and forcing a review of its intelligence estimates. However, jumping to conclusions without a thorough investigation and reacting rashly based on preconceived notions would be highly counterproductive. Additionally, though Pakistan's nuclear installations are not in the immediate vicinity of GHQ, the nature of the attack raises questions about how security agencies would react if a future attack targets any of the nuclear weapons facilities."

The Global War on Terrorism: Rectifying a Failure of Imagination

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:40:41 -0400

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen analyzes U.S. policy and intelligence after 9/11.

Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Evolving Forms of the Nuclear Genie

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:34:59 -0400

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen traces nuclear terrorism in the 21st century beginning with theory and practice, analyzing the implications of 9/11 and weighs in on the reconstruction of the global nuclear order.

Targeting Nuclear Programs in War and Peace

Matthew Fuhrmann and Sarah Kreps — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 09:02:11 -0400

When do states attack or consider attacking nuclear infrastructure in nonnuclear weapons states? Despite the importance of this question, relatively few scholarly articles have attempted to identify the factors that lead a state to attack another state's nuclear facilities. This paper conducts the first large-n analysis on when states use force as a way to control proliferation.

This paper challenges existing arguments that states are deterred from attacking nuclear programs by the prospect of a military retaliation from the proliferating state or concerns about international condemnation. Instead, it finds that states are more likely to attack nuclear programs when they believe that the proliferating state might use nuclear weapons or engage in other offensive behavior. States are willing to accept substantial costs in attacking if they believe that a particular country's acquisition of nuclear weapons poses a significant threat to their security.

Whatever He Decides, Afghanistan Will Hurt Obama

Aaron Rapport — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:28:30 -0400

"...Obama is unlikely to decrease his commitment to Afghanistan, even if assessments of the situation there grow increasingly dire. Instead he will probably opt to push the day of reckoning down the road. This is not just cynical politics on Obama's part. Powerful, success-oriented individuals tend to believe they can find solutions to even the most intractable problems if they are given enough time. As a result, they underestimate the long-term risks and costs of their actions."

Keeping a Lid on Homegrown Terror

Lorenzo Vidino — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:27:04 -0400

"...[A]ggressive counterterrorism tactics and improved intelligence sharing have allowed US authorities to dismantle cells and keep the country safe. At the same time, though, the United States seems to be lacking a long-term strategy to confront the threat. Authorities have been unable to conceive a policy that would preemptively tackle the issue of radicalization, preventing young American Muslims from embracing extremist ideas in the first place."

Corruption--The Afghan Wild Card

Ben Heineman — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:59:39 -0400

"But-- and here it becomes vexatious-- how can this be done by a weak, corrupt government during a dangerous insurgency, especially after a contested election marked by serious fraud? And, if corruption is not effectively addressed in a short time frame, does this undermine -indeed checkmate--- the ultimate military mission as expressed by President Obama earlier this year to disrupt, dismantle and eventually defeat al Qaeda and prevent their return to Afghanistan by defeating the Taliban insurgency."

The Art of China's Mediation during the Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula

Jason Qian and Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:10:21 -0400

Mediating regional conflict in Asia is a delicate art. It requires an acute understanding of the unique mediation culture in the region. China's mediation in the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula reveals key elements of this art and offers useful lessons. China's experience illustrates that an influential but neutral and harmony-oriented mediator is critical in the Asian context.

Europe's New Security Dilemma

Lorenzo Vidino — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 19:32:46 -0400

Several Muslim countries have formulated various programs to fight extremism. From Saudi Arabia to Indonesia, authorities have devised more or less comprehensive measures to deradicalize committed militants and prevent the radicalization of new ones. This soft approach to counterterrorism has also been adopted by some European governments. The 2004 Madrid and 2005 London attacks, as well as the arrest of hundreds of European Muslims who had been involved in a variety of terrorist activities, have clearly shown that radicalization is a problem in Europe. Over the last few years, various European governments have decided to combat radicalization processes among their Muslim population by enacting various counterradicalization programs, acknowledging that they cannot simply arrest their way out of the problem.