Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - International Security And Defense

Will US-Japan Alliance Survive?

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:01:49 -0400

"...[T]he U.S.-Japan alliance will have to face a new set of transnational challenges to our vital interests, such as pandemics, terrorism, and human outflows from failed states. Chief among these challenges is the threat posed by global warming, with China having surpassed the U.S. as the leading producer of carbon-dioxide emissions (though not in per capita terms)."

Hoping the Next 100 Days Go Better

Chuck Freilich — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:28:12 -0400

"...[I]t was clear from day one that Obama intended to reach out to the Arab world and attempt a breakthrough toward peace. Netanyahu, who professes to 'understand American,' should have done everything in his power to align himself with the new administration's agenda. Instead, his obstinacy led to a glaring crack in relations with the US, a cardinal pillar of Israeli national security, and exposed an unprecedented degree of mutual alienation."

Politicians are Demolishing the Reputation of the British Military

Azeem Ibrahim — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 08:14:32 -0400

"In 2006, British and Canadian forces arrived in Helmand province. We were to hold and secure it. But our forces did not receive the support they needed. Resources were split between Afghanistan and Iraq, and the government repeatedly turned down requests to spend more on equipment, particularly helicopters.

The results speak for themselves. Firstly, Taliban fighters have been able to tap into opium revenues. They have increased their areas of drug cultivation from 71 square milles in 2001 to 400 square miles in 2008. This would not have been possible if our strategy to make the area unsafe for Taliban had been adequately supported."

Insure to Assure: A New Paradigm for Nuclear Nonproliferation and International Security

Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra K. Decker — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:52:42 -0400

"No country has yet encountered major problems in its nuclear fuel supply specifically because of commercial disruptions. However, past political constraints on supply may be part of the motivation for countries like Iran to seek enrichment capability. Thus far it is unclear what other countries might be on the fence about acquiring a full fuel cycle and could be swayed not to enrich if an effective assurance mechanism could address the simply political risk. It is important for IAEA to identify these countries and the assurances they would need so that the best supply assurance mechanism can be crafted. Anticipating nuclear needs—not just for enriched uranium but also for fabricated fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.—and deciding whether and how government should help satisfy such needs is the best way to ensure that the industry develops in ways that serve the public's interests."

Obama's Style Trumps Substance, Again

Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:32:45 -0400

"The tone of U.S.-Russian diplomacy was much improved, and Obama is returning to Washington with several concrete agreements, but the summit did not yield a significant breakthrough on any major issue. In fact, like much of Obama's foreign policy to date, the Moscow summit was as much a triumph of style and attitude as an achievement in terms of substance. Russian-American relations may now be headed in the right direction, but both sides have a long way to go."

Ending North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions: The Need for Stronger Chinese Action

Hui Zhang — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:32:10 -0400

North Korea has recently taken a series of provocative steps to challenge the international community. If unchecked, North Korea will surely increase the quantity and quality of its arsenal. Even worse, once Pyongyang has more than enough weapons for its deterrent, it might be tempted to sell the surplus. The longer the crisis lasts, the more nuclear capable North Korea will become and the more difficult it will be to roll back Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. A nuclear North Korea would put China's national interests at great risk. Beijing can increase pressure on Pyongyang, using positive inducements and punitive measures. The chances are low, however, that Beijing will radically adjust its North Korea policy, at least for the near future. Beijing will continue to maintain its bottom-line approach, avoiding war on the Korean peninsula and an abrupt collapse of the Kim regime. From China's perspective, these scenarios must be avoided at all costs because they are contrary to China's primary interest in a stable environment.

Defense For a Real Threat

Trey Obering and Eric S. Edelman — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:25:05 -0400

July 6, 2009

"The East-West Institute released a study in late May by U.S. and Russian "experts" on the Iranian missile threat that concluded the threat "is not imminent and that in any event the system currently proposed would not be effective against it." The next day, Defense Secretary Robert Gates says, Iran apparently tested a multistage, solid-propellant missile with a range of 1,200 to 1,500 miles, putting much of Europe within range."

On Robert McNamara

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:40:17 -0400

"...I assign the Errol Morris film The Fog of War to my students in a course about leadership and ethics in foreign policy. What the film shows is a man who belatedly realized his frailties and decided to warn a younger generation not to repeat his mistakes. Many former policy makers spend their time after office trying to cast their actions in the best possible light for history. Bob was a rare exception in exposing his mistakes...."

Peace with Honor?

Ivan Arreguin-Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:43:07 -0400

"'Peace with honor.' This was the Nixon administration's euphemism for disengagement from South Vietnam, a place where corruption and incompetence had long doomed any hope of victory; even a victory as modest as the simple negative objective of preserving the political independence of tiny South Vietnam."

A Risky Prospect for Iraq

Monica Duffy Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:21:41 -0400

"As American troops pull back from Iraq's urban areas, a central question is whether Iraq's forces will be able to secure the peace. If history is any guide, Iraq's security forces face a challenging task. Ending civil wars and keeping them ended is not easy. Iraq faces three critical risk factors."

Joseph Nye's Testimony from Hearings on 'Japan's Changing Role'

Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:05:36 -0400

Joseph S. Nye testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and the Global Environment on "Japan's Changing Role" on June 25, 2009.

Don't Play Nuclear Chicken with a Desperate Pariah

Hui Zhang — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:25:21 -0400

"This game of escalation will go on and on until North Korea gets what it desires most from Washington: a reliable security assurance. Of course, no one likes to yield to dictators. But ultimately, playing chicken with a desperate and nuclear-armed North Korea is too risky to endeavor. The more isolated the North Koreans become, the more likely they will be to use the nuclear card in threatening two hostages: South Korea and Japan. Everyone loses that game"

Foreign Students are an Opportunity, Not a Threat

Azeem Ibrahim — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:42:45 -0400

"...[W]e should resist the temptation to react to the fear of terrorism by turning inwards, reducing ties to foreign countries, and denying more students entry. Reducing the number of foreign student Visas would be counterproductive. The US tried it after September 11th, but has now reversed its approach, realising the harm it is doing. To do the same would be to be cowed into becoming a more closed society. We must remain open, outward-looking and vibrant. It is precisely many of these foreign students who will help their countries to reduce terrorism over the long run."

Improving Russia-U.S. Relations: The Next Steps

Thomas M. Nichols — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 22:22:40 -0400

There is no endemic reason for Russian-U.S. relations to be as tense as they have become over the past several years. Th is situation is largely due, on one side, to mishandling of Russian affairs by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, and on the other by the obvious manipulation of anti-Americanism for domestic gain by the Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev administrations in Russia. Unfortunately, this means that only unilateral U.S. action can undermine the cynical policies of the Russian leadership and restore dynamism to the Russian-U.S. relationship.

Enhancing Full-Spectrum Flexibility: Striking the Balance to Maximize Force Effectiveness in Conventional and Counterinsurgency Operations

William D. Anderson, Jr. — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 21:43:21 -0400

With the United States currently engaged in difficult and taxing counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, renewed emphasis has been focused upon the country's capabilities and priorities vis-à-vis this type of warfare. Within the military, the Air Force has been especially and increasingly criticized for being too enamored with a Cold-War era conventionally minded force structure and for not shifting aggressively to meet the threats of COIN-style conflicts that many predict will be pervasive throughout the Global War on Terror.

This paper addresses the conceptual capabilities and limitations of air power in COIN in order to illuminate how the Air Force can leverage the distinct asymmetric advantage that air power presents across the spectrum of conflict. This asymmetry is founded upon a clear U.S. superiority in air power capabilities combined with the unique flexibility inherent in air power. An understanding of air power's efficacy in COIN, measured against conventional requirements and capabilities, will inform decisions on appropriate force structure and employment.

The Fight for Pakistan's Soul

Hassan Abbas — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 20:54:29 -0400

"...[A] lot depends on the state's capacity to hold the Swat area and re-establish civilian institutions there. And, even if the state succeeds, re-asserting control over Swat will only be the first step. The Taliban is spread throughout the NWFP and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. "Punjabi Taliban" militants from the fighting in Kashmir against India continue to shuttle between the Punjab heartland and the Northwest Territories, posing another serious challenge to government authority."

Bibi Answers Obama

Chuck Freilich — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:29:42 -0400

"In his recent speech to the Muslim world, Obama set a new course for U.S. policy in the region and in so doing challenged Netanyahu to join him in the effort, or risk American ire. Poor Bibi. During his first two months, he caused gratuitous tension with Obama by refusing to explicitly endorse a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and thereby convinced many that Israel, rather than the Palestinians, is the obstacle. Bibi knows that he cannot afford confrontation and that Israel must align itself with any administration."

Reliable Sources: Raising the Stakes of the Interrogation Debate

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:42:30 -0400

"Espionage is an art form, not a science. One never masters the art of intelligence, but is ever humbled by its elusive and myriad forms of expression."

Before Disaster Strikes: Rate and Raise Public Preparedness Now

Debra K. Decker — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 18:25:12 -0400

More, more severe, and new types of disasters can be expected to occur as a result of new types of threats (e.g., biological, cyber, nuclear/radiological) and more as well as more severe threats due to increased global interconnectedness and climate change. Yet, most Americans are not adequately prepared to respond to or recover from a catastrophic disaster, and many expect the government to take care of them. Even those who have experienced many common disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes may not make appropriate preparations or exercise proper judgment in responding to new disasters that may require different responses. Although community disaster preparation is considered the purview of state and local governments, when a disaster strikes, the federal government is often called in to respond or to help with recovery. For example, New Orleans estimates that the federal government role in rebuilding that city will be $15 billion. Although all rebuilding costs cannot be averted, better citizen preparation and community standards have been shown to reduce the costs of catastrophes.

The List: Iran's Presidential Wannabes

Kayhan Barzegar — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:33:42 -0400

Research Fellow Kayhan Barzegar describes the four candidates for the Iranian presidency (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezai) in terms of their credentials, power base, and stances on domestic politics and foreign policy—including the Iranian nuclear program.

China Should Abandon All-Carrot Approach

Hui Zhang — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 16:32:50 -0400

June 9, 2009

Hui Zhang's Op-Ed, "China Should Abandon All-Carrot Approach," was published in The Global Times, Beijing. In the Op-Ed Zhang argues "China should show its willingness to contribute to international nonproliferation efforts," by "abandon[ing] its temperate approach to North Korea."

The Two-State Trap in the Mideast

Ehud Eiran and Nir Eisikovits — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 12:00:06 -0400

"...A weak (or even worse, a failed) Palestinian state next to Israel will most likely lead not to the end of violence, but rather to its perpetuation. This is also a dangerous dichotomy, as it does not leave room for failure despite the fact that failure may come. The Palestinian national movement is deeply divided, and the Israeli public fears — based on the lessons of the withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza — that leaving the West Bank would compromise its security. The logical conclusion from presenting a binary map for the future — two states or war — when a two-state option is highly unlikely, is that the proposed frame has a great potential to destabilize the situation, rather than calm it.

US and China Must Stand Up to N. Korea

Martin B. Malin and Hui Zhang — Sun, 31 May 2009 01:17:18 -0400

"To facilitate enhanced Chinese support for North Korean denuclearization, Washington should also address some of Beijing's security concerns, including US-Japanese missile defense cooperation and sales of missile defense capabilities to Taiwan. The United States and China could also offer one another specific assurances regarding military deployments on the Korean peninsula. Even in the event of a North Korean collapse, the United States has no intention of moving its forces to the Chinese border; it would reduce Beijing's concerns if Washington said so."

Look at the Bright Side

Matthew Kroenig — Thu, 28 May 2009 11:22:01 -0400

"Others worry that North Korea, with its economy in shambles, will sell nuclear materials to earn hard currency. However, my research demonstrates that countries transfer nuclear technology for strategic, not economic, reasons. It is extremely unlikely, for example, that North Korea would sell nuclear technology to terrorists because of potentially devastating consequences. If the terrorists used those weapons on the U.S., it could spur massive retaliation against North Korea. The upside for the U.S.? It's much easier to deal with a country motivated by realpolitik than one blindly willing to trade away its security for a few bucks."

Paula Dobriansky and John Gieve Named Senior Fellows

Beth Maclin — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:15:32 -0400

Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, under secretary of state for democracy and global affairs under President George W. Bush, and Sir John Gieve, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, have joined the Belfer Center as senior fellows.

Featured Fellows: Thomas Hegghammer and Maya Tudor

Thomas Hegghammer and Maya Tudor — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:12:54 -0400

Belfer Center Research Fellows Thomas Hegghammer and Maya Tudor conduct policy-relevant research.

Q&A with Rory Stewart

Rory Stewart — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:07:03 -0400

Rory Stewart is the Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors. A former officer in the British Army and deputy governate coordinator with the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, Stewart spent two years walking 6,000 miles across Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Nepal - a journey he describes in his critically acclaimed book The Places in Between.

Newsmakers

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:04:56 -0400

Belfer Center Newsmakers.

Belfer in Brief

Wed, 27 May 2009 10:01:34 -0400

News from the Belfer Center.

Center Scholars Suggest Way Ahead for U.S. in Afghanistan, Pakistan

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:00:37 -0400

"We have a clear and focused goal to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future," President Barack Obama said in a statement on March 27, 2009. Several members of the Belfer Center community comment on President Obama's plan.