Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Intrastate conflict

When Arab States and Citizens Differ on Palestine

Rami Khouri — Sat, 18 May 2013 15:56:07 -0500

May 18, 2013

"Tensions between the Arab state and its citizens will expand in the years ahead, as the fundamental contradictions of Arab state-building, national identity, regional relations, the Arabism-Zionism confrontation, and international alliances all clash visibly. Jordan and Egypt provide the clearest examples because of their peace treaties with Israel, but they are not unique. Most other Arab states suffer similar contradictions and stresses, especially Levantine and Gulf states that must satisfy American-Israeli demands that contradict the sentiments of many of those Arab states’ own citizens."

New Rules of the Evolving Arab Order

Rami Khouri — Tue, 14 May 2013 09:32:43 -0500

May 14, 2013

The uprisings that erupted across the region as of December 2010 have been the single most important sign of a region-wide malaise that was gnawing at the core of Arab countries for decades, signaled in its earlier stages in the 1980s-90s by the rise of mass Islamist movements that reflected widespread citizen discontent and challenged autocratic governments. The evolving regional order is now entering its most dynamic stage of change, with every component element transforming into something new.

Podcast: Syria's "Endless" Nightmare: Humanitarian and Political Consequences

Mon, 13 May 2013 08:47:13 -0500

May 13, 2013

On Monday, May 6, the Middle East Initiative hosted a panel discussion addressing the most pressing concerns in the deepening, unabated Syrian crisis that has plagued the country since March of 2011. Moderated by Hilary Rantisi, Director of the Middle East Initiative, the panelists addressed the political, economic and humanitarian consequences of the violence in Syria, as well as the responses and responsibilities of the global community.

Options for Action in Syria

Chuck Freilich — Thu, 09 May 2013 19:42:51 -0500

"...[E]ven the limited use of chemical weapons violates a fundamental international norm and an American failure to respond would create another North Korea–like precedent that would be a source of deep encouragement for the Assads of the world: WMD buys even a heinous regime immunity from international retaliation. Iran is no doubt watching in the wings, deriving its own conclusions regarding what the U.S. defines as unacceptable behavior."

A Beginning for Syria Talks

David Ignatius — Thu, 09 May 2013 15:38:30 -0500

"It shouldn’t have been this hard, but Secretary of State John Kerry has finally gotten Russia to back the peace plan on Syria that it endorsed in principle last June. This isn’t a breakthrough, but at least it’s a beginning.

What the United States and Russia seem to have realized is that a negotiated transition of power in Syria is better than a fight to the death, which would destabilize the region. That’s a wise judgment, but it’s not clear that it’s shared by either the Alawite clique backing President Bashar al-Assad or the Sunni jihadists who are the backbone of the opposition."

The Real Scare in Syria is Not Chemical Weapons

Rami Khouri — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:21:34 -0500

May 7, 2013

"One of my rules of thumb of observing which way the wind blows in the Middle East is now in active operative mode: When Hezbollah and Israel both are actively fighting in the same third country, and Iran and the United States are both actively warning about their determination to act to protect their allies and their interests in that same third country, it is time to make another pot of coffee and make sure you have plenty of fresh batteries at home for your transistor radio."

Why Obama Remains Cautious About Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:35:43 -0500

The Obama administration has been cautious in its response to the evidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons in part because it still hopes to convince Russia to join in an internationally supported move for a political transition from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Frustrated by Obama’s Caution on Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:30:49 -0500

"Gen. Salim Idriss, the commander of rebel forces in Syria, complained late Tuesday that President Obama’s desire “to wait and wait for more evidence” that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons is encouraging their continued use — and that these attacks will only stop if the United States and its allies impose a no-fly zone."

Obama Bets Big on Syrian Rebel Leader

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:26:09 -0500

"The Obama administration is placing a large bet on the ability of a Syrian former professor of military engineering to build a coherent rebel army that can defeat the regime of Bashar al-Assad, combat Islamic radicals and help build a stable new Syria."

Are Chechen Immigrants a 'Threat'?

Simon Saradzhyan — Thu, 02 May 2013 09:09:38 -0500

“There are still many questions left unanswered as America seeks to understand how the Tsarnaev brothers could have inflicted harm on the innocent people of the country that has granted them shelter, food and education.But there is one question that should not be asked at all, and that is whether the horrendous attacks in Boston should prompt the United States and other countries to consider immigrants a security threat just because they belong to a certain ethnic group.”

Why Maliki Must Go

Nussaibah Younis — Thu, 02 May 2013 06:47:22 -0500

"...Mr. Maliki, who took office in 2006, had a successful first term, he has squandered the opportunity to heal the nation in his second term, which began in 2010. He has taken a hard sectarian line on security and political challenges. He has resisted integrating Sunnis into the army. He has accused senior Sunni politicians of being terrorists, hounded them from power and lost the cooperation of the Sunni community. The result: the political bargain that had sustained the fragile Iraqi state broke down."

The Collapsing Arab State

Nawaf Obaid — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 11:15:47 -0500

The so-called Arab Spring generated a wave of hope among those fighting or advocating for democratization of the Arab world’s authoritarian regimes. Now, following leadership changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, and with a brutal civil war raging in Syria and increasingly fraught conditions in Bahrain, Sudan, Jordan, and Iraq, there is much talk of a major shift – and hope for improvement – in the nature and prospects of the Arab state.

The Test to Come: Forgiveness and Reconciliation

Rami Khouri — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 08:15:02 -0500

April 27, 2013

Is reconciliation a feasible option for the Arab world that now seems to be moving in the direction of greater domestic intolerance and warfare? We do not know, and only time will tell. The track record of intra-Arab reconciliation has not been very impressive in recent decades, in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain, Sudan and others.

The Palestinian Occupation: Even (Or Especially) the 'Gatekeepers' Say It Isn't Working

Charles G. Cogan — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 18:01:30 -0500

"...[U]nlike the French in Algeria, the Israelis, back in history, had a leading presence in the land they much, much later moved in on; nevertheless, there are similarities. What struck me most about The Gatekeepers was reminiscent of The Battle of Algiers: thousands and thousands of indigenous faces shouting or silently expressing their unhappiness at living under the thumb of foreign occupying forces. Looking at this sea of frustration, in frames that must have come largely from official Israeli footage, I said to myself, how can the Israelis, in continuing an occupation that has lasted over 45 years, hope to contain this movement?"

Belfer Center Newsletter Spring 2013

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:50:46 -0500

The Spring 2013 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s deepening engagement with China.

Q&A with Dara Kay Cohen

Dara Kay Cohen — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:40:56 -0500

Dara Kay Cohen is an assistant professor of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and a core faculty member of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center. Her current research examines variations in the use of sexual violence during recent conflicts and draws from fieldwork in Sierra Leone, East Timor, and El Salvador, where she interviewed more than 200 ex-combatants and noncombatants. Here, she answers questions related to her research on the causes of wartime rape . She recently co-authored a policy report for the United States Institute of Peace titled “Wartime Sexual Violence: Misconceptions, Implications, and Ways Forward.”

Obama’s Pragmatic Approach to Mideast

David Ignatius — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 09:25:00 -0500

"Here’s the coldblooded calculation at work as President Obama shapes his foreign-policy agenda: If he took 'full ownership' of the Syria problem through direct military intervention, that’s probably all he could accomplish during his second term — and even then, he might fail in reconciling that country’s feuding sects.

So Obama is moving instead toward a more pragmatic approach in Syria, with the CIA playing a central role, supplemented by the State Department and the U.S. military. The United States will train Syrian rebels and help build governance in areas liberated from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Washington will work harder to coordinate policy with the key regional powers — Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan — whose conflicting agendas have threatened in recent days to pull the Syrian opposition apart," explains David Ignatius in the Washington Post.

In Syria, America’s Fractured Hopes

David Ignatius — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 09:19:19 -0500

"The moderate political and military command structure the U.S. has been trying to foster within the Syrian opposition appears to be fracturing, a victim of bitter Arab regional rivalries.

The regional tension splitting the Syrian rebel movement is between Qatar and Turkey, on one side, and Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Emirates on the other. The former group would like to see an Islamist government headed by the Muslim Brotherhood after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. The latter group opposes any expansion of Muslim Brotherhood influence into Syria, fearing that the movement could spread from there to endanger Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E," writes David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

Worries About a ‘Failed State’ in Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 14:09:42 -0500

"Growing chaos in the liberated areas of northern Syria is convincing some members of the Syrian opposition that the country will become a 'failed state' unless an orderly political transition begins soon to replace President Bashar al-Assad.

This stark analysis is contained in an intelligence report provided to the State Department last week by Syrian sources working with the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Describing the situation in the area from Aleppo to the Turkish border, where Assad’s army has largely disappeared, the report draws a picture of disorganized fighters, greedy arms peddlers and profiteering warlords," writes David Ignatius in The Washington Post.

In Egypt, the Kids Are Not All Right

David Ignatius — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 13:26:20 -0500

"If you’re trying to understand the rampaging soccer fans who have become a political force in the new Egypt, you might consult Anthony Burgess’s 1962 novel 'A Clockwork Orange.'

The book is about a chaotic future shaped by roving gangs of 'droogs' (Burgess’s imaginary word for young male toughs). Led by Alex, the droogs get stoned on milk-and-drug cocktails and then commit brutal acts of what Burgess called 'ultra-violence,'" warns David Ignatius or the Washington Post.

The Long Hot Arab Summer

Nawaf Obaid — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 09:59:30 -0500

"The so-called Arab Spring has ushered in a great deal of hope that a number of Arab states might begin to develop and engender more socially responsive, economically prosperous and politically progressive indigenous conditions," writes Nawaf Obaid.

"Unfortunately, in the nine Arab nations I analyze here -Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, Sudan, Jordan and Iraq - this does not seem to be the case. Indeed, one might say that some or all of these nations are far worse off than they were before their social upheavals."

Syrian Rebel Commander on a Post-Assad Syria

David Ignatius — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 10:16:13 -0500

"The commander of the Free Syrian Army, encouraged by recent successes on the battlefield, said that he is ready to meet with military officers from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to 'discuss how to keep order in the country' should Assad give up power," writes David Ignatius for the Washington Post.

America and the Middle East-II

Rami Khouri — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 15:08:26 -0500

March 19, 2013

American and other foreign support for Arab autocrats and dictators for over half a century helped to create the conditions of disparity, corruption, and populist despair that ultimately sparked the uprisings and citizen demands for rights that we now witness. The Anglo-American invasion of Iraq has been the single most important stimulus for new terrorists who gravitated to occupied Iraq from many lands, eager to repel the foreign invaders, and who have since seeped out of Iraq to do their dirty deeds in other Arab countries.

Syria is Melting Away

Nicholas Burns — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 11:49:00 -0500

The answer in Syria, of course, is not so simple, writes Nicholas Burns. "The United States is exhausted and risk-averse after Iraq and Afghanistan. And Syria is forbidding territory — its well-armed government is stronger than any we faced in the Balkans. Much of the fighting is in densely crowded neighborhoods in which it would be difficult for an invading force to distinguish friend or foe. President Obama is surely right not to put American troops on the ground in yet another Middle East quagmire."

'In 2020, the DRC…

Calestous Juma, John C. Bradshaw and Gwendolyn Mikell — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 10:17:48 -0600

"The post-election era will require economic construction. Much of this will start with building essential infrastructure needed for growth — especially in transportation, energy and in telecommunications. The World Bank estimates the DRC's infrastructure needs at over US $5 billion a year over the next decade. After all, the country is the size of Western Europe, but has only 2,800 kilometres of all-weather paved roads running through it. This is about the same as Rwanda's networks of roads — even if Rwanda is some 90 times smaller than the DRC. The DRC also has extensive potential navigable waterways that need to be developed. And massive investment in air transportation infrastructure could make the country a hub for the rest of Africa, given the DRC's geographical centrality on the continent."

US Should Focus Aid on Syrian Refugees

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 10:29:28 -0600

"...[E]veryone will be better off in the interim if the United States can help keep Syrian refugees from destabilizing the region. That means steering our humanitarian assistance towards temporary relief, providing public safety and emergency resources to the host nations, and enforcing promises made by Arab neighbors and the international community to provide financial support for the refugees."

Syria's Breakup is a Levantine Norm

Rami Khouri — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 11:21:00 -0600

February 25, 2013

The talk about Syria by knowledgeable friends and colleagues whose views I respect has turned increasingly pessimistic in recent weeks, with expectations ranging across a span of bad outcomes. These range from Syria becoming a Levantine Somalia, where power is in the hands of hundreds of local warlords and tribal chieftains, to a totally fractured state that is defined by a combination of raging civil war and sectarianism that pulls in interested neighbors and perhaps ignites new regional wars.

Wartime Sexual Violence: Misconceptions, Implications, and Ways Forward

Dara Kay Cohen, Amelia Hoover Green and Elisabeth Jean Wood — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 09:54:57 -0600

Wartime rape is neither ubiquitous nor inevitable. The level of sexual violence differs significantly across countries, conflicts, and particularly armed groups. Some armed groups can and do prohibit sexual violence. Such variation suggests that policy interventions should also be focused on armed groups, and that commanders in effective control of their troops are legally liable for patterns of sexual violence they fail or refuse to prevent.

What Path Now For Syria?

David Ignatius — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 14:22:06 -0600

"Syrian sources caution that the battlefield advances may accelerate movement toward a breakup of the country, as Alawite supporters of the regime retreat to their ancestral homeland in the northwestern region around Latakia. And there’s no sign that either Assad or his Russian patrons are paying any more than lip service to a political settlement," warns David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

The Hard Work Ahead of John Kerry in Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 15:15:40 -0600

"John Kerry’s first task as secretary of state should be to develop a coherent policy for Syria, where U.S. sanctions are proving counterproductive, the fighting around Damascus is deadlocked, the economy is in ruins and the country is headed toward a sectarian breakup," writes David Ignatius.