Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Iraq

Iran on Its Heels

Vali Nasr — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 10:00:16 -0500

June 19, 2008

Iran still has considerable influence in Iraq. It may reconstitute the Mahdi Army and pick up the fight against America, using special groups of the type suspected in the Baghdad car bombing Tuesday. It may also try to use nationalist opposition to the U.S.-Iraq "status of forces" agreement to its advantage. But Tehran will find it difficult to regain lost turf in Baghdad or Basra, or to go back to happily supporting Shiites both at the center and in the militias. It will have to choose whether it is with the state or the sub-state actors.

Why Islam Lies at the Heart of Iraq's Civil War

Monica Duffy Toft — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:36:05 -0500

"...[N]ot until 2007 did the Pentagon acknowledge that Iraqi sectarian violence had crossed a threshold to become a civil war.

But policymakers still haven't come to terms with the implications of that fact. If they did, they'd see that a wisely executed withdrawal of US-led forces could well be the surest path to peace. That's because withdrawal is likely to transform the fighting in Iraq into a defensive struggle for power in a nation-state, as opposed to an offensive battle rooted in religion."

Your Government Failed You: Breaking the Cycle of National Security Disasters

Richard Clarke — Thu, 29 May 2008 10:11:03 -0500

May 29, 2008

It's not just Bush and Cheney that are to blame. The system is broken. That's the message in this provocative sequel to Against All Enemies. When Richard Clarke apologized for 9-11, he never thought that there would be so many more government failures in so short a time, but climate change, Katrina, the struggle with al Qaeda, the insecurity in cyberspace, and the failure of homeland security all bespeak a larger problem, a systemic failure. Clarke documents the failures and suggests solutions for making government work better in its most important job, protecting us.

The Shia Factor

Kayhan Barzegar — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 21:13:46 -0500

The new rivalry between two main Muslim communities is the result of the political developments in Iraq. The pragmatic relationship between Iran and the Shia factions in other countries. The fears of Sunni regimes of a Shia crescent moon.

Is Bush Our Woodrow Wilson?

Joseph S. Nye — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 22:17:43 -0500

"Bush and Wilson have many similarities. Both were highly religious men who came to office without any foreign policy experience and who responded to a crisis — Wilson to World War I, Bush to 9/11 — with a bold, moralistic vision. Wilson vowed to make the world safe for democracy, and Bush tried to transform the Middle East by imposing democratic government on Iraq. Many of Bush's speeches about promoting democracy abroad could have been given by Wilson. The expressed ideals in both men's proposed visions of changing other countries were unachievable given our nation's capacities."

Five Years Into Iraq: A Report Card

Wed, 19 Mar 2008 08:17:09 -0500

March 19, 2008

With the war in Iraq stretching past the five-year mark, experts weigh in on what has gone right, what has gone wrong, and lessons learned. Paul Kane, a Marine veteran of Iraq, writes of the “serious disconnect” between civilians and those who have served in uniform, while Meghan O’Sullivan, former deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan, says that today “we have the right strategy in place — and it is making a difference on the ground.”

Five Years and Counting: Ten Unpleasant Truths about the War in Iraq

Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 15:18:43 -0500

I opposed the invasion of Iraq in 2003, because I was convinced that war was unnecessary and would result in a costly and open-ended occupation. Along with several others, I made the case for containment in a number of published articles, speeches, and media appearances. I also helped organize an advertisement opposing the war that appeared in the New York Times in September 2002. I wish we had been wrong; sadly, we turned out to be right. On the 5th anniversary of the invasion, I offer ten unpleasant truths about our past errors, present circumstances, and future choices.

Targeting Civilians in War

Alexander B. Downes — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 20:32:36 -0600

Accidental harm to civilians in warfare often becomes an occasion for public outrage, from citizens of both the victimized and the victimizing nation. In this vitally important book on a topic of acute concern for anyone interested in military strategy, international security, or human rights, Alexander B. Downes reminds readers that democratic and authoritarian governments alike will sometimes deliberately kill large numbers of civilians as a matter of military strategy. What leads governments to make such a choice?

Oil for Nukes — Mostly a Bad Idea

Matthew Fuhrmann — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 16:49:05 -0600

"...In 1975, France signed an agreement with Iraq authorizing the export of a research reactor and highly enriched uranium. According to French officials at the time, their aim was to obtain a permanent and secure oil supply from a country that provided 20 percent of its oil.

It worked. But it also had tremendous consequences for international and regional security."

La République de Dieu

Charles G. Cogan — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 16:08:39 -0600

La République de Dieu is a collection of essays on the idea of God; on evangelism ("La République de Dieu"); on Islamic fundamentalism ("L'Islam médiéval"); and followed by empirical chapters analyzing a number of conflicts between the Muslim and non-Muslim world: Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Arab/Israeli.

Power and Authority Reconfigured

Rami Khouri — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 12:01:55 -0600

February 6, 2008

The reconfiguration of power and authority is the big, new, historic and pervasive macro-development now taking place in Arab society, as the prevailing power structure of the past 75 years reaches the limits of its abilities. Not surprisingly, concerned citizens, agile gangs and efficient businessmen alike are moving in to grab their share of power in those spaces where the state is retreating, or franchising its own legitimacy and authority. Handled wisely, this could be a heartening and positive development that allows Arab society to define itself according to the consensus views of its pluralistic citizens -- unless American, British, Israeli or other Western armies invade again and try to re-configure us to their liking, rather than to our rights and wishes.

Stop Getting Mad, America. Get Smart

Richard Armitage and Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"...security threats are no longer simply military threats. China is building two coal-fired power plants each week. U.S. hard power will do little to curb this trend, but U.S.-developed technology can make Chinese coal cleaner, which helps the environment and opens new markets for American industry

In a changing world, the United States should become a smarter power by once again investing in the global good — by providing things that people and governments want but cannot attain without U.S. leadership."

The Iran Game, Round Two

Kayhan Barzegar — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"Instead of indirect action and communication, and shows of force, Washington should address the Iranians directly, face to face, and advance a win-win game. Iran's concerns in the region are more strategic and pragmatic. The time has come for the Bush administration to accept that installing a Shiite government in Iraq requires Iran's engagement — and that that government's success, as a part of a new American political order, will require that the U.S. address Iran’s concerns simultaneously."

Offshore Balancing or International Institutions? The Way Forward for U.S. Foreign Policy

G. John Ikenberry and Stephen M. Walt — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

G. John Ikenberry, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, and Stephen Walt, professor of international affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, participated in a debate at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University on May 8, 2007. Christopher Lydon hosted the debate.

Global Forecast: The Top Security Challenges of 2008

Carola McGiffert and Craig Cohen — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 17:46:50 -0600

This volume of essays showcases CSIS's collective wisdom on the most important security issues facing America in 2008—the major political, military, and economic challenges likely to have strategic implications for the nation. Some of these challenges depend on political developments in other countries, while others hinge on U.S. actions. Some are regional in focus; others have transnational or global reach. All have the potential to expand into full-scale crises and must be watched and managed carefully.

President Bush Reciting Bin Laden's Script

Eric Rosenbach and Matan Chorev — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0500

President Bush's mischaracterization of the Iraq war as a battle against al-Qaeda has led to both a restoration of the extremist group's capabilities to attack the United States and increased support for Jihadist attacks in the region, according to Eric Rosenbach and Matan Chorev.

Extreme Do-Over May Unify Iraq

Chuck Freilich — Mon, 15 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Just as the U.S. has repeatedly rethought its military strategy in Iraq, it is time to recognize that the political process has failed and to change course.

Instead of sitting on the sidelines as sectarian influences rip Iraq asunder, the U.S. should announce a do-over and craft a new constitution designed to counter Iraq’s centrifugal forces.

Opposing the Kurdistan Option for Withdrawal

Matan Chorev — Thu, 04 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Matan Chorev believes that the "Kurdistan Option" - withdrawing all troops to Iraqi Kurdistan and creating a long-term presence - is fraught with peril and should be opposed. Instead, he argues that the U.S. should endorse "no more than a transition force in Kurdistan leading to a total withdrawal from the country."

Securing the Bomb 2007

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn provides a comprehensive assessment of efforts to secure and remove vulnerable nuclear stockpiles around the world, and a detailed action plan for reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. Securing the Bomb 2007 was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The full report, with additional information on the threat of nuclear terrorism, is available on the NTI website.

How to Build US-Iran Relations

Abbas Maleki and Kaveh L. Afrasiabi — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"...Iran has not suspended its uranium enrichment program, but it has not ignored the UN Security Council resolutions on Iran either, as can be discerned in the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency citing "significant progress" in Iran-IAEA cooperation. With the United States and Iran talking in Iraq and Iran-IAEA cooperation yielding concrete results in terms of Iran's nuclear transparency, the stage is potentially set for de-escalating the US-Iran tensions, particularly if both sides adopt a long-term view and sort out the security dimension."

U.S., Iran Need to Build Confidence

Abbas Maleki and Kaveh L. Afrasiabi — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"...the stage is set for a thaw in U.S.-Iran relations. With sufficient political will on both sides, Washington and Tehran can achieve this by adopting concrete confidence-building measures and by imposing a mutually agreed-upon moratorium on demonizing each other."

We Owe It to Iraq to Set Aside Partisan Politics

Paul Kane — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Sir, Clive Crook’s article on Iraq (“America’s wishful thinking”, September 13) provides a lucid analysis and rightly points to the imperative for a bipartisan, “centrist” solution....

Iraq Policy and Political Theater Come Under Review at Kennedy School

Kennedy School Press Office — Tue, 18 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

September 18, 2007

A panel of Kennedy School experts offered a clinical dissection of Iraq policy Tuesday after a week of heady political theater in Washington focusing on the success of the U.S. troop surge.

No choice -- withdrawal starts in '08

Graham Allison and Brigadier General (ret.) Kevin Ryan — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

September 11, 2007

"What all of this debate about withdrawal missed, however, is that the driver is not conditions in Iraq or politics in the United States but the hard realities of Army and Marine Corps readiness. As the troops' extended 15-month tours of duty end, the Army and Marine Corps simply don't have more troops to replace them. The withdrawal will be, in effect, the flip side of the surge."

Six Years After 9/11

Rami Khouri — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

September 11, 2007

BEIRUT -- This week’s sixth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attack on the United States sees the top American military and diplomatic officials in Iraq speaking to the US Congress about American strategy in Iraq. The juxtaposition is noteworthy: Six years ago, a small band of Al-Qaeda militants attacked the United States and killed some 3000 people. Today, an army of over 160,000 American troops wages a war in Iraq that has seen tens of thousands of people killed since 2003. Neither policy makes much sense to anyone in the world, other than to those fanatics on both sides who decided to pursue these actions.

Iraq Progress Report: Reading Between the Lines

Fri, 07 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

September 7, 2007

With Gen. David H. Petraeus scheduled to appear before Congress next week, Belfer Center experts and researchers offer their insights and analysis — as well as items that Congress should not overlook.

More Finger-Pointing Over Iraq

Paul Kane — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The following letter was written in response to L. Paul Bremer III's op-ed "How I Didn’t Dismantle Iraq’s Army" which appeared in The New York Times on September 6, 2007.

The Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq

Thu, 06 Sep 2007 10:10:25 -0500

The Independent Commission submitted this report to the House and Senate Committees on Armed Services, Appropriations, Intelligence, and Foreign Relations/Affairs on the readiness of the Iraqi Security Forces in September 2007.

The Middle East: Between Progress and Conflict

Tue, 04 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The Dubai Initiative at the Belfer Center and The Dubai School of Government are pleased to announce their first joint conference at the Kennedy School of Government, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2007.

The Law Applies to All, or only Some?

Rami Khouri — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

September 4, 2007

Rami Khouri reflects on the British withdrawal from Basra and Bush's simultaneous photo-op visit. The day's events, and especially Bush's deceitful words in Iraq, provoke the question of UK and US accountability for the militarism, death, and destruction they foment throughout the world.