Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Islam

Iran, New Iraq and the Persian Gulf Political-Security Architecture

Kayhan Barzegar — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:28:28 -0500

This article investigates the necessity of establishing a new political-security arrangement in the Persian Gulf region in the light of new political developments in the region after the 2003 Iraq crisis. The author argues that following the recent political-security changes in the region and with the shift of Iraq's role from its previous threatening position, together with the prospect of building a friendly coalition between Iran and Iraq, the formation of new political-security architecture is inevitable in the Persian Gulf region. The new arrangement has to be based on the new political-security, cultural and economic realities. The author also argues that the nature of security threat in the region has changed. Under the new circumstances, instead of hard inter-states rivalries, the security challenges are more centered in human security and nations' political demands and expectations. Dealing with these new situations requires establishing mutual cooperation in the region.

Why Islam Lies at the Heart of Iraq's Civil War

Monica Duffy Toft — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:36:05 -0500

"...[N]ot until 2007 did the Pentagon acknowledge that Iraqi sectarian violence had crossed a threshold to become a civil war.

But policymakers still haven't come to terms with the implications of that fact. If they did, they'd see that a wisely executed withdrawal of US-led forces could well be the surest path to peace. That's because withdrawal is likely to transform the fighting in Iraq into a defensive struggle for power in a nation-state, as opposed to an offensive battle rooted in religion."

The Shia Factor

Kayhan Barzegar — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 21:13:46 -0500

The new rivalry between two main Muslim communities is the result of the political developments in Iraq. The pragmatic relationship between Iran and the Shia factions in other countries. The fears of Sunni regimes of a Shia crescent moon.

India-Iran Relations: Key Security Implications

Xenia Dormandy and Ronak D. Desai — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 09:00:12 -0500

While India and the United States have embarked on a campaign to strengthen their bilateral relations, as symbolized by the proposed US-India civilian nuclear deal, it appears as though New Delhi has similarly begun to pursue a more robust relationship with another major power: Iran. The two states have recently expanded cooperation in a number of key areas, including counterterrorism, regional stability, and energy security. What are the implications of this "New Delhi-Tehran Axis" for the United States, and how should Washington respond to growing ties between India and Iran?

Toward a Liberal Realist Foreign Policy: A Memo for the Next President

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 17:57:15 -0600

"On January 20, you will inherit a legacy of trouble: Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Palestine, North Korea for starters. Failure to manage any one of them could mire your presidency and sap your political support—and threaten the country’s future. At the same time, you must not let these inherited problems define your foreign policy. You need to put them in a larger context and create your own vision of how Americans should deal with the world."

La République de Dieu

Charles G. Cogan — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 16:08:39 -0600

La République de Dieu is a collection of essays on the idea of God; on evangelism ("La République de Dieu"); on Islamic fundamentalism ("L'Islam médiéval"); and followed by empirical chapters analyzing a number of conflicts between the Muslim and non-Muslim world: Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Arab/Israeli.

The Salafi-Jihad as a Religious Ideology

Assaf Moghadam — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:49:31 -0600

"To those who are disoriented by modernity, the Salafi-jihad provides a new sense of self-definition and belonging in the form of a membership to a supranational entity....the United States and its allies should grasp every opportunity to highlight the disastrous consequences that Salafi-jihadist violence has wrought on the everyday lives not only of Westerners, but first and foremost on Muslims themselves....It is a fact that al-Qa`ida and associated groups offer no vision for Muslims other than perennial jihad—hardly an appealing prospect."

Europe's Power to Lead

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 17:04:16 -0600

"European countries’ success in overcoming centuries of animosity, and the development of a large internal market, has given them a great deal of soft power. At the Cold War’s end, East European countries did not try to form local alliances, as they did in the 1920s, but looked toward Brussels to secure their future. Similarly, countries like Turkey and Ukraine have adjusted their policies in response to their attraction to Europe."

Wherein the Divide? Terrorism and the Future of Atlanticism

Matan Chorev — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 15:34:52 -0600

This article argues that the tactical and strategic divergence in the approach to counterterrorism across the Atlantic is best understood through the prism of strategic culture. The different experiences with international terrorism have contributed to vastly different perceptions of the terrorist threat and in turn to different counterterrorism approaches. The paper introduces the concept of strategic culture, outlines the two continents' experience with terrorism and explains why the end of the Cold War brought new tensions to the fore. It suggests that a strategic culture analysis of the divergent approaches to terrorism will help inform and enrich the ubiquitous one-dimensional realist rendering of the Atlantic divide and demonstrate that under the right conditions, international terrorism, rather than leading to permanent divorce might paradoxically be the very thing that transforms the Atlantic relationship back towards a consolidated Atlantic community.

Scotland Yard to Probe Bhutto Death

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 12:00:26 -0600

Xenia Dormandy, a former director for South Asia at the National Security Council and currently director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, agreed that Mrs. Bhutto's assassination had put Mr. Musharraf's future in jeopardy.

"He is being widely blamed for the assassination attack by PPP cadre, either directly or for complicity in not providing her sufficient security,” Ms. Dormandy said.

Documentary Depicts Life Of Islamic Leader

Jessica A. Sequeira — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

The documentary discusses the history of the Ismaili Shia sect and the policies of the three previous Aga Khans. The current Aga Khan, Prince Karim al-Husayn, also appears in the film to reiterate the importance of tolerance during times of conflict. The Initiative on Religion in International Affairs co-sponsored the screening and the panel discussion which followed.

Is the NWFP Slipping Out of Pakistan's Control?

Hassan Abbas — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"The NWFP is not likely to physically slip out of Pakistan’s hands.... Religious political forces have lost some of their support base (Daily Times, November 22) due to poor governance ..... Musharraf’s arbitrary imposition of emergency rule (read: martial law) has targeted those very forces which can challenge extremists. Many human rights activists and lawyers in the NWFP were arrested and top judges of the NWFP high court known for their progressive views and integrity have been sent home. Among the militants, however, this action of Musharraf is being interpreted as his weakness, further emboldening their activities...."

Smart Power and the U.S. Strategy for Security in a Post-9/11 World

Joseph S. Nye and Richard Armitage — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Joseph S. Nye and Richard Armitage testify before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Hearing on Smart Power and the U.S. Strategy for Security in the Post-9/11 World

Pervez Out of Order: Pakistani Strongman Suspends Constitution

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"...Rather than taking responsibility for the deteriorating security situation (as evidenced by suicide bomb attacks) and the increasing Talibanization of the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, Musharraf has blamed the judiciary and media.

Musharraf’s popular support is at its lowest ebb. Pakistan’s armed forces — repeated targets of suicide bombers — have become demoralized. It is difficult to imagine them standing with Musharraf should civil conflict erupt. Nor can a weak, embattled, Musharraf be expected to fight Islamic militancy effectively or bring political stability to Pakistan...."

Who Tried to Kill Benazir Bhutto?

Hassan Abbas — Wed, 24 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"Benazir Bhutto, twice-elected prime minister of Pakistan and the first woman head of a Muslim state, decided to terminate her self-exile and return to Pakistan last week. By all accounts, more than a million people (mostly poor and young) welcomed her enthusiastically in the port city of Karachi on October 18. In the midst of the celebration, the political rally was targeted by a series of suicide attacks killing around 140 people. Bhutto and her top party leaders, however, remained unhurt.

Who would have been the potential beneficiary of Bhutto's elimination?"

Tajiks Wrestle with Identity and Islam

Susan Sypko — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

When asked about the greatest difference between Muslims in Tajikistan and Muslims in other countries, Davlatmo Ismailova — or “Fatima,” as she prefers to be called—tells me that other Muslims have more freedom. Fatima would know. She is suing Tajikistan’s Ministry of Education for not allowing her to wear the hijab to her university classes.

Bracing for Bhutto: Pakistan Prepares for Former Prime Minister’s Return

Thu, 18 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto came home to a now-nuclear nation that faces conflicts on its borders with both India and Afghanistan, enduring poverty and an increasing militant presence that already has marked her for death. But, according to Hassan Abbas, Bhutto may be Pakistan’s best shot at true democracy.

Increasing Talibanization in Pakistan's Seven Tribal Agencies

Hassan Abbas — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"The government of President Pervez Musharraf is facing policy failure in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. Taliban forces and their sympathizers are becoming entrenched in the region and are aggressively expanding their influence and operations (especially in Tank, Dera Ismail Khan and Swat Valley in the North-West Frontier Province). A lethal combination of Musharraf's political predicament and declining public support, a significant rise in suicide attacks targeting the army and the reluctance of soldiers deputed in the area to engage tribal gangs militarily further exacerbates this impasse...."

Six Years After 9/11

Rami Khouri — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

September 11, 2007

BEIRUT -- This week’s sixth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attack on the United States sees the top American military and diplomatic officials in Iraq speaking to the US Congress about American strategy in Iraq. The juxtaposition is noteworthy: Six years ago, a small band of Al-Qaeda militants attacked the United States and killed some 3000 people. Today, an army of over 160,000 American troops wages a war in Iraq that has seen tens of thousands of people killed since 2003. Neither policy makes much sense to anyone in the world, other than to those fanatics on both sides who decided to pursue these actions.

Power and Sanctions or Law and Life?

Rami Khouri — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

September 8, 2007

The United Nations should thoroughly review its optimum role in a transforming world, because its existing contradictory policies risk damaging its credibility and efficacy for years to come.

Tend to Turkey

Dr. Elizabeth D. Sherwood-Randall — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Dr. Elizabeth D. Sherwood-Randall's article in Democracy: A Journal of Ideas.

A Quiet Battle for Rights in Iran

Fotini Christia — Sun, 26 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0500

August 26, 2007

"...unlike other human rights movements battling repressive regimes, which have traditionally looked to the West for a lifeline, Iran's activists ...would prefer that we keep our distance."

Time to Heal U.S.-Turkey Wounds

Graham Allison — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Sunday's elections give a fresh opportunity to fix a terrible collapse in bilateral ties. Imagine a stable, prosperous, secular Muslim democracy in the Middle East. The dream of just such an outcome was the worthiest, albeit least likely, of President Bush's stated aspirations for the war in Iraq. Unfortunately, the way in which the administration has pursued this objective has damaged what remains the best hope for a successful moderate Muslim democracy in the region: Turkey.

How to Squeeze Jihadi Culture Out of Pakistan

Vali Nasr — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

July 20, 2007

Putting faith in President Musharraf hasn't worked. But here's what the US can do.

The Road to Lal Masjid and its Aftermath

Hassan Abbas — Thu, 19 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"It is clear that most Pakistanis wanted Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) leader Maulana Abdul Rashid Ghazi to be held accountable for his vigilantism and for trying to enforce his extremist version of Islam on society. The public's views have changed, however, now that it has become obvious that the government used indiscriminate force during the operation and since its claims about the presence of foreign militants inside the mosque complex have not been independently verified."

Pakistani Forces Storm Red Mosque, Kill Cleric

Hassan Abbas and Samina Ahmed — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Hassan Abbas and Samina Ahmed provided the analysis following the news story.

Peace In Our Time?

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"As yet, no one has devised a fully effective counter-terrorism policy, or for winning in Iraq, or for dealing with Iran. Indeed, there probably is no one single policy, but a cumulative combination of various different approaches."

Musharraf's Party is Over

Hassan Abbas — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

June 11, 2007

The hundreds of thousands of ordinary Pakistanis euphorically chanting in the streets in support of Iftikhar Chaudhry, the suspended chief justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, demonstrate that Pakistan has outgrown Pervez Musharraf’s transitional leadership....

Instability Has Damaged Turkey's International Standing

Joseph S. Nye — Fri, 11 May 2007 00:00:00 -0500

May 11, 2007

South Waziristan's Maulvi Nazir: The New Face of the Taliban

Hassan Abbas — Thu, 10 May 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"Pakistan is experimenting with the Taliban yet again. The primary focus of the effort is to de-link the Taliban from al-Qaeda and bring them back into the Pakistani sphere of influence."