Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Japan

Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay

William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:31:18 -0500

Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.

Japan and African States Discuss Future Partnership

Calestous Juma — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 12:44:03 -0500

Japan announced it will double its aid to Africa over the next five year at the Fourth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD IV) held in Yokohama on May 28–30, 2008....TICAD IV marked a clear departure from previous development conferences, which focused largely on Africa’s immediate crises and challenges, such as corruption and poor governance. Instead, it stressed the importance of human resource development (including higher education and vocational training), industrial development, infrastructure, and trade.

Size Matters

Richard N. Rosecrance — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 17:22:33 -0500

"As the American political system hurtles toward its quadrennial encounter with the oracle of democracy, it is worth our while to take stock of the country's place in a world beset by bewilderingly rapid change. (Heaven knows none of the candidates will bother to do this.) I want to suggest that an old yet generally neglected subject remains particularly relevant: the relationship between the size of political units and the effective scale of systems of economic production and exchange. Another way to describe this relationship is by recourse to the hoary scholarly phrase "political economy", a term of art that has unfortunately gone out of style...."

Balancing Asia's Rivals

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:36:35 -0500

"...Bush leaves behind a better legacy in Asia. American relations with Japan and China remain strong, and he has greatly enhanced the United States' ties with India, the world's second most populous country....Improved relations between India and the U.S. can structure the international situation in a manner that encourages such an evolution in Chinese policy, whereas trying to isolate China would be a mistake.

Handled properly, the simultaneous rise of China and India could be good for all countries."

Terrorism, War, or Disease? Unraveling the Use of Biological Weapons

Anne L. Clunan, Peter R. Lavoy and Susan B. Martin — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 20:55:10 -0500

The use of biological warfare (BW) agents by states or terrorists is one of the world's most frightening security threats but, thus far, little attention has been devoted to understanding how to improve policies and procedures to identify and attribute BW events. Terrorism, War, or Disease? is the first book to examine the complex political, military, legal, and scientific challenges involved in determining when BW have been used and who has used them.

Net Access for African Universities Would Boost Continent

Calestous Juma — Thu, 29 May 2008 19:48:25 -0500

"African universities could be the continent's gateways into the global knowledge economy for local diffusion of new technologies. But this potential remains unrealized because universities and research institutes in Africa remain digitally isolated from the rest of the world. This is partly because of government neglect and lack of strategic policies on Internet access....Providing low-cost, high-speed Internet access to African universities will help Africa build the capacity it needs to solve its own problems. It is one of the most strategic investments that the G-8 countries can make in Africa in the coming few years."

Future of Japan-US Alliance

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 12 May 2008 15:09:04 -0500

"The U.S. regards a triangular Japan-China-U.S. relationship as the basis of stability in East Asia, and wants good relations between all three of its legs. But the triangle is not equilateral, because the U.S. is allied with Japan, and China need not become a threat to either country if they maintain that alliance....a wise policy combines realism with liberalism. By reinforcing their alliance, the U.S. and Japan can hedge against uncertainty while at the same time offering China integration into global institutions as a "responsible stakeholder."

Correspondence: Do Small Arsenals Deter?

Ward Wilson, Rajesh M. Basrur and Michael D. Cohen — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:46:43 -0600

January 1, 2008

Rajesh Basrur and Michael Cohen respond to Ward Wilson's Spring 2007 International Security article, "The Winning Weapon? Rethinking Nuclear Weapons in Light of Hiroshima."

Linking Tradable Permit Systems for Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Opportunities, Implications, and Challenges

Robert N. Stavins and Judson Jaffe — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"With tradable permit systems for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in place in some parts of the world and actively being considered in others, increasing attention has been given to the opportunity to link these systems. Linking occurs when the government that maintains one system allows regulated entities to use allowances or credits from another system to meet domestic compliance obligations."

Reassessing Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: Competition, Congruence, and Transformation

Amitav Acharya and Evelyn Goh — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Since the 1990s, Asia-Pacific countries have changed their approaches to security cooperation and regional order. The end of the Cold War, the resurgence of China, the Asian economic crisis, and the events of September 11, 2001, have all contributed to important changes in the Asia-Pacific security architecture.

Fuelling a Sustainable Economy

Calestous Juma — Thu, 23 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"In response to long periods of neglect, African countries are starting to invest in new energy production facilities...."

Growing Links for US and India

Xenia Dormandy — Thu, 19 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

July 19, 2007

As the centerpiece of the transformed relationship, there is enormous political will to complete the deal, but the devil is in the details.

Japan's Valued Role in Promoting Public Goods

Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 14 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

This commentary comprises excerpts from a keynote speech Joseph S. Nye delivered May 26 in Tokyo at an Asahi Shimbun symposium on its 21 "Proposals for Japan's New Strategies" that ran in May 3 editions of The Asahi Shimbun and on May 23 in IHT/Asahi.

Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet): International and Domestic Constraints on the Nuclearization of Japan

Llewelyn Hughes — Sat, 31 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Japan's experience in 1945 led it to declare that it will never become a nuclear weapons state. But changes in the regional and international security environments (i.e., a nuclear North Korea and an erosion of multilateral regimes) indicate at least some potential benefit in rethinking this policy. In fact, neither public opinion nor the actions of policymakers support the development of an independent nuclear deterrent. Japan's leaders remain more interested both in strengthening their country's existing "insurance policies" against the threat of a nuclear attack (in particular, the U.S. nuclear deterrent), and in developing their civilian nuclear program to guarantee energy security. At least for the time being, the costs of Japan becoming a nuclear state outweigh the benefits.

The Winning Weapon? Rethinking Nuclear Weapons in Light of Hiroshima

Ward Wilson — Sat, 31 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945 , and the Japanese surrender that followed, have been crucial in shaping scholars' and decisionmakers' views of the influence of nuclear weapons on policymaking. New research from Japanese, Soviet, and U.S. archives, suggests, however, that Hiroshima may have played virtually no role in ending the war in the Pacific. Rather, the Soviet Union 's declaration of war against Japan on August 9 and subsequent invasion of Manchuria convinced the Japanese leadership of the need to surrender. This reappraisal could have a profound impact on how nuclear weapons will be perceived in the future.

Changes Afoot on the Diplomatic Stage

Seyom Brown — Sun, 25 Feb 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"POLICY ANALYSTS in Cambridge and policy wonks in Washington are all astir , trying to ascertain whether the anti-US rhetoric by President Vladimir Putin of Russia at a conference in Munich was mainly for his home audience or signaled a resurgent rivalry with the United States...."

Ashton Carter appointed to Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice’s International Security Advisory Board

Mon, 06 Nov 2006 00:00:00 -0600

November 6, 2006

At a November 6, 2006 swearing-in at the State Department, Preventive Defense Project Co-Director and Kennedy School of Government professor Ashton B. Carter became a member of Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice’s International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) which is charged with providing advice on a wide range of issues affecting national security.

The East Asian Triangle

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 16 Oct 2006 00:00:00 -0500

"...China is unlikely to compete with the US on a global basis does not mean that it could not challenge the US in East Asia, or that war over Taiwan is not possible. If Taiwan were to declare independence, it is likely that China would use force, regardless of the perceived economic or military costs. But it would be unlikely to win such a war and prudent policy on all sides can make such a war unlikely."

When Terrorists Go Mainstream

Monica Duffy Toft — Fri, 27 Jan 2006 00:00:00 -0600

"Hamas has historically done much better at providing for the basic needs of Palestinian Arabs than the Palestinian Authority (Fatah). That's why Hamas won...."

Innovate or Perish

Lewis M. Branscomb — Sun, 01 Jan 2006 00:00:00 -0600

January 1, 2006

THE UNITED STATES is losing its competitive advantage and may soon lose its innovative edge....

Two Patient Powers, One Peaceful World

Richard N. Rosecrance — Sun, 18 Dec 2005 00:00:00 -0600

"...China's economic stake in the American economy needs to be as strong and balanced as the American stake in China. Recent studies indicate that conflict between two countries declines in proportion to the large and symmetrical foreign direct-investment stake they hold in each other. Part of the strong reciprocity in U.S.-Canada relations is due to the foreign direct investment going both ways. When such investments take place reciprocally, they lower the level of conflict between governments...."

Vietnam's Geopolitical Resources

Alexander Vuving — Sat, 15 Oct 2005 00:00:00 -0500

October 15, 2005

Vietnam’s Geopolitical Resources in Today’s World Politics

Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks

John Park — Sat, 01 Oct 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Despite extensive diplomatic efforts to facilitate the six-party talks, domestic policy constraints, differing priorities, and conflicting historical analogies among each of the countries have brought vastly differing perspectives to the multilateral negotiating table.

Thwart Terrorists' Dream of American Hiroshima

Graham Allison — Fri, 12 Aug 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Sixty years ago, the Americans ended World War II by dropping Little Boy and Fat Man from B-29 bombers onto Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This was the explosive climax to the military's most expensive weapons program — the Manhattan Project to design and build a nuclear bomb.

Sixty Years Later: Hiroshima and the Bomb

Graham Allison — Sat, 06 Aug 2005 00:00:00 -0500

On August 6, 1945, the United States carried out the first attack with nuclear weapons, against the Japanese city of Hiroshima. The weapon would fundamentally alter the face of conflict, and shape strategic thinking for subsequent generations. If strategists couldn't always agree on what force posture the United States should adopt, there was consistently broad agreement that the spread of nuclear weapons posed a fundamental threat to United States national security.

China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order

David Shambaugh — Sat, 01 Jan 2005 00:00:00 -0600

International relations in Asia are undergoing fundamental change, and the emergence of China as a key regional player is a major cause.

Lessons of Nagasaki for Fighting Terrorism

Graham Allison — Mon, 09 Aug 2004 00:00:00 -0500

THE NUCLEAR bomb dropped on Hiroshima became an icon of the nuclear age, seared into the collective consciousness of postwar Americans by John Hersey's classic book. Fewer Americans remember much about the destruction of Nagasaki three days later on Aug. 9, 1945, and fewer still have reflected on lessons it offers for threats we face today.

Lessons From a Horrific Past: Can We Prevent a Terrorist's Hiroshima?

Graham Allison — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 00:00:00 -0500

Can we prevent a terrorist's Hiroshima?

Occupational Hazards: Why Military Occupations Succeed or Fail

David Edelstein — Wed, 30 Jun 2004 00:00:00 -0500

Why do some occupations succeed and others fail? An examination of twenty-four occupations since the Napoleonic Wars yields two main and perhaps paradoxical findings: occupations are generally likely to succeed only if they are lengthy; extended occupations, however, are likely to produce nationalist reactions that can stymie an occupation’s chances of success.

Pacifism or Passing the Buck? Testing Theories of Japanese Security Policy

Jennifer Lind — Wed, 30 Jun 2004 00:00:00 -0500

This article examines the conventional wisdom that domestic factors and strong antimilitarist norms have constrained Japan’s security policy since the country’s bitter defeat in World War II.