Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Kyoto protocol and post-Kyoto options

Toward a Post-Kyoto Climate Change Architecture: A Political Analysis

Robert O. Keohane and Kal Raustiala — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:09:16 -0500

"Any international agreement to address climate change must rest on broad public support in developed nations for mitigation actions. We propose an international climate architecture that builds on such public support — which we hope will be forthcoming — and uses multilateral international institutions to extend its effects to countries without such "green" publics."

Post-2012 International Policy Architecture for Global Climate Change International Workshop

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 21:15:05 -0500

The International Workshop on "Post-2012 International Policy Architecture for Global Climate Change" was organized by the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, the International Centre on Climate Governance (a joint initiative of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and the Fondazione Giorgio Cini) and the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change.

The workshop was held in Venice on May 14–16, 2008, and took place in the magnificent setting of the Fondazione Giorgio Cini, a celebrated monastery located on the Island of San Giorgio Maggiore facing Saint Mark's Square. Participation in the workshop was by invitation only.

The workshop was structured as follows. On May 15th, a one-day academic workshop presented preliminary results of work in progress from the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements. This will be useful to obtain feedback from colleagues on research-in-progress and exchange ideas about international climate change policy.

On May 16th, a stakeholders meeting provided leaders from business, environmental advocacy, and government an opportunity to engage in a discussion about international climate change policy with one another and with academic experts. The main results of the academic workshop were presented at the beginning of the stakeholder workshop on May 16th.

Summary of European Stakeholders Meeting: International Climate Policy after 2012

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 20:39:50 -0500

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, together with the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Fondazione Giorgio Cini, and the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, hosted a workshop of leading thinkers on international climate policy in Venice, Italy, on May 15–16. On the second day, leaders from business, environmental advocacy, and government, along with the assembled academics, discussed key topics in international climate change policy, including ways to engage developing countries, how to maintain global competitiveness despite diverse national mitigation policies, and proposals for international agreements that could succeed the Kyoto Protocol.

Climate Change: Expert Opinion on the Economics of Policy Options to Address Climate Change

U.S. Government Accountability Office, Joseph Aldy and Robert N. Stavins — Sat, 31 May 2008 15:42:34 -0500

...GAO was asked to elicit the opinions of experts on (1) actions the Congress might consider to address climate change and what is known about the potential benefits, costs, and uncertainties of these actions and (2) the key strengths and limitations of policies or actions to address climate change. GAO worked with the National Academy of Sciences to identify a panel of noted economists with expertise in analyzing the economic impacts of climate change policies and gathered their opinions through iterative, Web-based questionnaires. The findings reported here represent the views of the 18 economists who responded to both questionnaires.

Two of the 18 economists who participated were Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements Co-Directors Joseph Aldy and Robert Stavins. In addition, two other participating economists, James Edmonds of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and William Pizer of Resources for the Future, are members of Harvard Project research teams.

Economic Incentives in a New Climate Agreement

Joseph Aldy and Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 07 May 2008 19:58:19 -0500

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements has agreed to help the Office of the Danish Prime Minister, in its role as incoming President of the 2009 Conference of the Parties, to prepare background papers and on-site briefings for a series of very high-level dialogues on climate change policy, hosted by the Prime Minister. These dialogues will each include about 25 participants, including CEOs of European and U.S. corporations, key officials from national governments and intergovernmental organizations, and leaders of major environmental NGOs. This paper on the subject of economic incentives was prepared by the Harvard Project leadership for the first dialogue.

Climate Policy Architectures for the Post-Kyoto World

Joseph Aldy and Robert N. Stavins — Thu, 01 May 2008 13:56:15 -0500

"The global climate has changed and will continue to change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from a broad variety of human activities. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined that 'most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.' If greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unabated, the global average temperature will likely increase between 1.1°C and 6.4°C. This warming will unleash a myriad of impacts, the vast majority of which will adversely affect water availability, agricultural and forestry productivity, the spread of infectious diseases, extreme weather events, unique ecosystems and rare species, and the built environment in coastal areas. The risks of global climate change clearly necessitate an international effort."

Workshop Ponders: Post-Kyoto, What Next?

Sasha Talcott — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 19:11:14 -0500

"The project is examining ideas that are similar to Kyoto’s top-down approach, though stronger, as well as approaches that are substantially different. Key ideas in play range from indexing emissions targets to economic growth, to bottom-up approaches, such as linking together the actions of a number of countries. One of the project’s key goals is to persuade the countries of the world not only to look at ideas similar to the Kyoto Protocol, but also to look at ideas that are very different in structure."

Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements Research Workshop

Mon, 17 Mar 2008 22:05:09 -0500

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements hosted a research workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on March 13–14, 2008. The workshop brought together key scholars and other thinkers working on international climate change policy from a variety of disciplines, including economics, political science, and law. Together, they addressed issues such as how to persuade developing countries — among them China and India — to sign on to an international agreement, how to link climate policy with international trade, and how to effectively address deforestation, which accounts for 20 percent of global emissions. Attendees presented their initial research findings and got feedback on their ideas. The workshop was preceded by a reception and dinner at the Harvard Faculty Club, which featured Todd Stern, a partner at the law firm WilmerHale, as a keynote speaker. The final drafts of the research will be published in early fall 2008.

Global Warning

Robert O'Neill and John P. Holdren — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 11:36:13 -0600

Someone usually asks Holdren why we should be worried about it. Holdren, who has been thinking about climate change since the late 1960s, has a prepared list: “Heat waves, drought, wildfires, rising sea level, reduced agricultural productivity, damage to ocean fisheries, loss of coral reefs,” he says. “I mean, I have a much longer litany,” he reminds his audience. This isn’t just about beach erosion on Cape Cod or warmer summers in Europe, it’s about trying to preserve the conditions for our economic, social, and political well-being.

After Kyoto

Sasha Talcott — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 11:14:32 -0600

Robert Stavins has launched the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, a two-year effort to identify key design elements of a future international agreement on climate change. The project aims to help develop a plan that is “scientifically sound, economically rational, and politically pragmatic” and useful to both developing and developed countries.

A Sensible and Practical Way to Cut U.S. CO2 Emissions

Robert N. Stavins — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 20:41:11 -0600

There is growing impetus for a domestic U.S. climate policy that can provide meaningful reductions in emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. It is important to identify the best policy instruments at the outset, because once a policy architecture is put in place, it can be very difficult to make a change. A poorly designed policy could impose unnecessarily high costs while providing little public benefit, and could detract from the development of a more effective, long-run policy.

Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements Special Paper Competition

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 20:31:58 -0600

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements invites submission of papers focused on the design of international climate policy architectures. Papers should propose a complete policy framework to succeed the Kyoto Protocol in the post-2012 period.

Stavins Keen to Strike a Balance

Terry Slavin and Robert N. Stavins — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 16:14:32 -0600

Harvard economist Robert Stavins has a lead role in setting the climate change agenda and he remains optimistic of progress, as long as the pragmatic approach wins the day.

Bali Climate Change Conference: Key Takeaways

Robert N. Stavins and Joseph Aldy — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

The Bali climate change conference was a qualified success. Before we went to Bali, we observed that it will be good news if there’s no bad news coming out of the negotiations. This was achieved, and then some.

Forging a Climate Agreement That Works

Robert N. Stavins and Joseph Aldy — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 20:18:53 -0600

"...As the nations of the world consider the next international climate agreement, they should not be limited by starting-point bias. In other words, although they should possibly consider an agreement that resembles Kyoto, they should also consider a wide range of other ideas, some of which bear very little resemblance to Kyoto."

Past as Prologue: An Innovation-Diffusion Approach to Additionality

Ajay Mathur, Ananth Chikkatur and Ambuj Sagar — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

The authors propose a simple test for additionality that draws on the framework of the diffusion of innovations, especially the risk-profile of adopters of new technologies or innovations.

Architectures for Agreement: Issues and Options for Post-2012 International Climate Change Policy

Joseph Aldy, Robert N. Stavins, Carlo Carraro and William A. Pizer — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Project Co-Directors Joseph Aldy and Robert Stavins, along with Carlo Carraro of the University of Venice and Resources for the Future's William Pizer, spoke at a Project-sponsored side event at the 13th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Bali, Indonesia.

Linking Tradable Permit Systems: Opportunities, Implications, and Challenges

Robert N. Stavins and Judson Jaffe — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Project Co-Director Robert Stavins and Analysis Group Inc.'s Judson Jaffe spoke at an International Emissions Trading Association (IETA)–sponsored side event at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia. They presented their new report on linking greenhouse gas emissions trading systems, which was also sponsored by IETA.

Designing Post-2012 International Climate Change Policy

Joseph Aldy — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

The 2007 UN-sponsored climate change negotiations opened in Bali, Indonesia this week. By the end of the conference on December 14, the world community may agree to a two-year "roadmap," as called for by the UN Secretary-General, for negotiating an agreement to guide climate change mitigation efforts after the end of the Kyoto Protocol's 2008–2012 commitment period....

A Comprehensive U.S. Cap-and-Trade System: A Sensible and Practical Approach to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 19:09:12 -0600

Lehman Brothers recently established its Council on Climate Change to bring together leaders from industry, policy, and academia to discuss the political and business implications of climate change. On December 6–7, 2007, they hosted the inaugural Council on Climate Change Summit in New York. Project Co-Director Robert Stavins presented during the Policy Options and Solutions workshop session.

Poland's Place, Post-Kyoto

Mladen Petrov and Robert N. Stavins — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 19:13:53 -0600

"Poland is of great importance, and curbing greenhouse gas, particularly carbon dioxide emissions, will be a very great challenge, because of the rapidly growing economy and the very high reliance on coal."

The Road from Bali: Strategies for Post-Kyoto Global Climate Policy

Joseph Aldy — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Project Co-Director Joseph Aldy was one of three leading experts on international climate change policy who briefed House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming staff on the key issues on the agenda at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, the negotiating positions of the key players, and the significance and expected results of the conference.

Linking Tradable Permit Systems for Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Opportunities, Implications, and Challenges

Robert N. Stavins and Judson Jaffe — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"With tradable permit systems for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in place in some parts of the world and actively being considered in others, increasing attention has been given to the opportunity to link these systems. Linking occurs when the government that maintains one system allows regulated entities to use allowances or credits from another system to meet domestic compliance obligations."

Beyond Kyoto: Getting Serious About Global Climate Change

Robert N. Stavins — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Project Co-Director Robert N. Stavins spoke at a Special Session of the World Energy Congress entitled "Architectures for Agreement: Climate Change Policy Post 2012" on November 15, 2007, in Rome, Italy.

Beyond Kyoto: Getting Serious About Global Climate Change

Robert N. Stavins — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Project Co-Director Robert N. Stavins addressed the University of Warsaw's Department of Economics on November 13, 2007. His presentation on post-2012 climate change policy described both the global climate policy challenge and the U.S. climate policy outlook.

A U.S. Cap-and-Trade System to Address Global Climate Change

Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

In a paper commissioned by the Brookings Institution's Hamilton Project, Stavins, the co-director of the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements (HPICA) proposes "a specific cap-and-trade system with several key features including: an upstream cap on CO2 emissions with gradual inclusion of other greenhouse gases; a gradual downward trajectory of emissions ceilings over time to minimize disruption and allow firms and households time to adapt; and mechanisms to reduce cost uncertainty."

Resources for the Future (RFF) Panel Analyzes Alternative Proposals for Post-Kyoto Strategy

Joseph Aldy, Robert N. Stavins, Todd Stern and David W. Conover — Thu, 04 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

How should a post-2012 international climate policy be structured? During E&ETV Event Coverage of a recent Resources for the Future discussion, panelists analyze alternative strategies to a post-Kyoto policy.

Linking Tradable Permit Systems: Opportunities, Challenges, and Implications

Robert N. Stavins — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Professor Stavins' presentation at the 7th IETA Forum on the State and Development of the Greenhouse Gas Market described tradable permit systems and linkage among them that allows emission reduction efforts to be redistributed across systems. He notes that linkage may become the de jure or de facto post-2012 international policy architecture.

Architectures for Agreement: Addressing Global Climate Change in the Post-Kyoto World

Joseph Aldy and Robert N. Stavins — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The Kyoto Protocol serves as an initial step to mitigate the threats posed by global climate change but policy-makers, scholars, businessmen, and environmentalists have begun debating the structure of the successor to the Kyoto agreement. Written by a team of leading scholars in economics, law and international relations, this book contributes to this debate by examining the merits of six alternative international architectures for climate policy.

Designing the Next International Climate Agreement

Joseph Aldy and Robert N. Stavins — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The world's first step to address global climate change, in the Kyoto Protocol, was not perfect. The next step does not need to be perfect either, but it ought to be an improvement. To contribute to the effort in designing the next step, we have just launched the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements. This initiative will draw upon leading thinkers from academia, private industry, government, and non-governmental organizations from around the world to identify key design elements and construct a small set of promising policy frameworks, and then disseminate and discuss the design elements and frameworks with decisionmakers in the United States, Europe, and around the world.