Managing the Atom

Why Iran's New President Won't Change His Country

Belfer Center — Jul 16, 2024

Jul 16, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar's analysis posits that yet even if Khamenei gives Pezeshkian a relatively long leash, his government is unlikely to negotiate another ambitious nuclear agreement. It will, instead, look to ink a deal that could freeze or incrementally scale back Iran's nuclear advances, including by reducing the quality and quantity of the uranium Iran enriches, in exchange for sanctions relief. Such a transactional deal would have multiple advantages for Pezeshkian. Given Khamenei's support, Iran's conservatives would be less likely to sabotage that deal than they were the 2015 agreement. And it would be easy for Tehran to ramp up its program if the United States withdraws again, as occurred under President Donald Trump in 2018.

Reducing Nuclear Dangers

Belfer Center — Jun 20, 2024

Jun 20, 2024

Matthew Bunn argues that governments need help from scientists and engineers both in understanding the dangers that nuclear weapons continue to pose and in finding paths to reduce them.

AI and the Decision to Go to War: Future Risks and Opportunities

Belfer Center — Jun 7, 2024

Jun 7, 2024

This short article introduces our Special Issue on 'Anticipating the Future of War: AI, Automated Systems, and Resort-to-Force Decision Making'. The authors begin by stepping back and briefly commenting on the current military AI landscape. They then turn to the hitherto largely neglected prospect of AI-driven systems influencing state-level decision making on the resort to force.

The Death of an Iranian Hard-Liner

Belfer Center — May 24, 2024

May 24, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar writes that former Iranian President Raisi will be remembered for putting the country on the right path after a series of presidents who challenged the supreme leader's vision. He will be memorialized for positioning Iran as a nuclear threshold state and establishing it as a rising power—and for doing so not despite external pressure, but because of it.

The Iran-Russia Friendship Won't Wither Under Raisi's Successor

Belfer Center — May 21, 2024

May 21, 2024

Nicole Grajewski describes former Iranian President Raisi’s hardline stance and his willingness to deepen ties with Russia as assets. Collaboration with a like-minded authoritarian with a bent for confronting the West proved particularly valuable after Russia invaded Ukraine.

A Message from Ukraine: Do Not Provoke Putin—with Weakness

Belfer Center — Apr 29, 2024

Apr 29, 2024

Mariana Budjeryn writes that despite, or perhaps because, of this ever-present shadow of war, the 16th annual Kyiv Security Forum, which was held in March 2024, was a display of camaraderie and solidarity with Ukraine, with sincere dues paid to Ukraine's bravery, sacrifices, and resilience, as well as in recognition that Ukraine belongs in the transatlantic security architecture.

Is Iran's Strategic Patience at an End?

Belfer Center — Apr 23, 2024

Apr 23, 2024

Assaf Zoran examines the dynamics of Iran's shift from operating in the shadows or behind partners and proxies to directly attacking Israel and Pakistan.

Iran and Israel's Dangerous Gambit

Belfer Center — Apr 18, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Nicole Grajewski analyzes Iran and Israel's shift from a long-simmering shadow conflict to direct confrontation.

The Enormous Risks and Uncertain Benefits of an Israeli Strike Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Belfer Center — Apr 18, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Assaf Zoran argues that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities may have the opposite result of prompting an escalation in Iran’s nuclear developments, a pattern previously observed in response to kinetic actions attributed to Israel.

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the Global Nuclear Order

Belfer Center — Apr 17, 2024

Apr 17, 2024

Mariana Budjeryn presents "Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the Global Nuclear Order" at the DOE/NNSA Administrator's Strategy Forum

Iran and Nuclear Verification: 20 Years of Continuing Sturm and Drang

Belfer Center — Apr 1, 2024

Apr 1, 2024

Report by Trevor Findlay about recent politics surrounding the Iranian Nuclear Program.

Strategic Myopia: The Proposed First Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Defend Taiwan

Belfer Center — Mar 14, 2024

Mar 14, 2024

David Kearn argues that the idea that the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945 would be by the United States in the defense of Taiwan against a conventional Chinese invasion would have significant, negative, and long-lasting, diplomatic ramifications. It is difficult to fathom the myriad potential consequences, but U.S. nuclear weapon use would almost certainly shatter the non-proliferation regime as a functioning entity, incentivize states (including China) to acquire or improve their existing nuclear arsenal, and damage America's standing globally.

To Enhance National Security, the Biden Administration Will Have to Trim an Exorbitant Defense Wish List

Belfer Center — Mar 13, 2024

Mar 13, 2024

David Kearn argues that even in the absence of restrictive resource and budgetary constraints, a focus on identifying and achieving concrete objectives that will position the United States and its allies to effectively deter aggression in critical regional flashpoints should be the priority given the stressed nature of the defense industrial base and the nuclear enterprise.

Russia and the Global Nuclear Order

Belfer Center — Mar 12, 2024

Mar 12, 2024

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine illuminated the long profound shadow of nuclear weapons over international security. Russia's nuclear threats have rightfully garnered significant attention because of the unfathomable lethality of nuclear weapons. However, the use of such weapons in Ukraine is only one way—albeit the gravest— that Russia could challenge the global nuclear order. Russia's influence extends deep into the very fabric of this order—a system to which it is inextricably bound by Moscow's position in cornerstone institutions such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). From withdrawing from key treaties to stymieing resolutions critical of misconduct, Moscow has demonstrated its ability to challenge the legitimacy, relevance, and interpretations of numerous standards and principles espoused by the West.

When Ukraine Set Course for Europe

Belfer Center — Feb 20, 2024

Feb 20, 2024

Mariana Budjeryn reflects on the tenth anniversary of her native Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity.

Is This a Sputnik Moment?

Belfer Center — Feb 17, 2024

Feb 17, 2024

Kari A. Bingen and Heather W. Williams write that if Russia plans to deploy nuclear weapons in space to target satellites, the threat is definitely serious—and the U.S. should act fast.

Iran's Hiding Behind Deadly Friends Should Have a Price

Belfer Center — Feb 10, 2024

Feb 10, 2024

Assaf Zoran argues that it is crucial to hold Iran accountable and convey the cost associated with arming, training, financing, and promoting violence through proxies.

Iran's New Best Friends

Belfer Center — Jan 29, 2024

Jan 29, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar argues that the attacks on Red Sea ships unintentionally advance the Houthis agenda by allowing it to claim that it is fighting imperialism, and the attacks help Iran by fortifying its political foothold in the Middle East. Washington should therefore cease the strikes. It should, instead, work to halt the war in Gaza. The United States should also try to strengthen the region's diplomatic agreements and shore up its security framework. Otherwise, the Houthi-Iranian partnership will only grow stronger, as will Tehran's leverage in the region.

Ukraine in Europe: One Hard-Earned Step Closer

Belfer Center — Dec 15, 2023

Dec 15, 2023

Mariana Budjeryn writes: War never stops at the border, especially on a continent like Europe. The European Union absorbed millions of Ukrainian war refugees and poured billions of euros into Ukraine's defenses and economic survival. The war permanently reshaped Europe: its demographics, political economy, and energy architecture are shifting in ways that will have irreversible long-term consequences. All of this is because in a very real sense Ukraine already is inextricably woven into the fabric of Europe: Ukraine’s pain is Europe’s pain and Ukraine’s gain will inevitably be Europe's gain, too.

Cancelling the New Sea-launched Nuclear Cruise Missile is the Right Move

Belfer Center — Dec 5, 2023

Dec 5, 2023

David W. Kearn argues that deployment of nuclear weapons cannot rectify a perceived imbalance in conventional forces in the western Pacific.