Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Middle East

European Hardball

Rami Khouri — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 11:43:11 -0400

An important but now vacant diplomatic space needs to be filled in Middle East mediation. The European Union can fill that space with the right policies and with the right approach. Here are three suggestions.

Hoping the Next 100 Days Go Better

Chuck Freilich — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:28:12 -0400

"...[I]t was clear from day one that Obama intended to reach out to the Arab world and attempt a breakthrough toward peace. Netanyahu, who professes to 'understand American,' should have done everything in his power to align himself with the new administration's agenda. Instead, his obstinacy led to a glaring crack in relations with the US, a cardinal pillar of Israeli national security, and exposed an unprecedented degree of mutual alienation."

Insure to Assure: A New Paradigm for Nuclear Nonproliferation and International Security

Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra K. Decker — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:52:42 -0400

"No country has yet encountered major problems in its nuclear fuel supply specifically because of commercial disruptions. However, past political constraints on supply may be part of the motivation for countries like Iran to seek enrichment capability. Thus far it is unclear what other countries might be on the fence about acquiring a full fuel cycle and could be swayed not to enrich if an effective assurance mechanism could address the simply political risk. It is important for IAEA to identify these countries and the assurances they would need so that the best supply assurance mechanism can be crafted. Anticipating nuclear needs—not just for enriched uranium but also for fabricated fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.—and deciding whether and how government should help satisfy such needs is the best way to ensure that the industry develops in ways that serve the public's interests."

McNamara and a Lesson for Lebanon

Rami Khouri — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:55:34 -0400

"Remembering Robert McNamara's ways half a century ago, and watching Lebanese prime minister-designate Saad Hariri's deliberations today should remind us that military power, political legitimacy and national influence are three different things."

Defense For a Real Threat

Trey Obering and Eric S. Edelman — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:25:05 -0400

July 6, 2009

"The East-West Institute released a study in late May by U.S. and Russian "experts" on the Iranian missile threat that concluded the threat "is not imminent and that in any event the system currently proposed would not be effective against it." The next day, Defense Secretary Robert Gates says, Iran apparently tested a multistage, solid-propellant missile with a range of 1,200 to 1,500 miles, putting much of Europe within range."

Hypocritical Kvetching

Rami Khouri — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:32:40 -0400

Negotiating with Iran cannot be any more difficult than it was with the Soviet Union. So why the hesitancy -- and the anguished, hypocritical debate in the West?

Three Cheers for Turkey

Rami Khouri — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:48:45 -0400

The most significant development in the Middle East? The continuing civilian control of the Turkish military -- the only instance where the power of military, police, and intelligence-security agencies is being checked by democratically-elected civilian authorities.

Peace with Honor?

Ivan Arreguin-Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:43:07 -0400

"'Peace with honor.' This was the Nixon administration's euphemism for disengagement from South Vietnam, a place where corruption and incompetence had long doomed any hope of victory; even a victory as modest as the simple negative objective of preserving the political independence of tiny South Vietnam."

A Risky Prospect for Iraq

Monica Duffy Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:21:41 -0400

"As American troops pull back from Iraq's urban areas, a central question is whether Iraq's forces will be able to secure the peace. If history is any guide, Iraq's security forces face a challenging task. Ending civil wars and keeping them ended is not easy. Iraq faces three critical risk factors."

Why Do Arabs Not Revolt?

Rami Khouri — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:43:09 -0400

Why do the top-heavy, non-democratic political control and governance systems of the Arab world persist without any significant popular opposition or public challenge?

The Arabs' Forlorn Envy of Iranians

Rami Khouri — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 10:34:57 -0400

Broadly speaking, the Arab world has maneuvered itself into a lose-lose situation vis-à-vis developments in Iran -- despite different views of the Islamic Republic.

Iran Makes History Again

Rami Khouri — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 10:30:43 -0400

This is uncharted territory in the context of contemporary Iran -- since the 1979 Islamic revolution overthrew the Shah. But it's routine behavior in the wider context of human beings who do not like being treated like idiots by their own government.

Enhancing Full-Spectrum Flexibility: Striking the Balance to Maximize Force Effectiveness in Conventional and Counterinsurgency Operations

William D. Anderson, Jr. — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 21:43:21 -0400

With the United States currently engaged in difficult and taxing counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, renewed emphasis has been focused upon the country's capabilities and priorities vis-à-vis this type of warfare. Within the military, the Air Force has been especially and increasingly criticized for being too enamored with a Cold-War era conventionally minded force structure and for not shifting aggressively to meet the threats of COIN-style conflicts that many predict will be pervasive throughout the Global War on Terror.

This paper addresses the conceptual capabilities and limitations of air power in COIN in order to illuminate how the Air Force can leverage the distinct asymmetric advantage that air power presents across the spectrum of conflict. This asymmetry is founded upon a clear U.S. superiority in air power capabilities combined with the unique flexibility inherent in air power. An understanding of air power's efficacy in COIN, measured against conventional requirements and capabilities, will inform decisions on appropriate force structure and employment.

Nothing New from Netanyahu

Rami Khouri — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 11:32:07 -0400

Netanyahu wants for the Israelis today what God promised the ancient Hebrews in Deuteronomy, Exodus and Numbers: eternal, exclusive, pure, powerful, secure statehood in a land owned by others that will be miraculously ethnically cleansed with Divine mandate and legitimacy.

Bibi Answers Obama

Chuck Freilich — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:29:42 -0400

"In his recent speech to the Muslim world, Obama set a new course for U.S. policy in the region and in so doing challenged Netanyahu to join him in the effort, or risk American ire. Poor Bibi. During his first two months, he caused gratuitous tension with Obama by refusing to explicitly endorse a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and thereby convinced many that Israel, rather than the Palestinians, is the obstacle. Bibi knows that he cannot afford confrontation and that Israel must align itself with any administration."

What Comes Around Goes Around

Rami Khouri — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:28:07 -0400

Changes in American policies and rhetoric are already triggering intriguing responses from different parts of the Middle East, as we can see in four separate issues: Lebanon, Palestine-Israel, Iran, and American attitudes toward Islam and Muslims.

The List: Iran's Presidential Wannabes

Kayhan Barzegar — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:33:42 -0400

Research Fellow Kayhan Barzegar describes the four candidates for the Iranian presidency (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezai) in terms of their credentials, power base, and stances on domestic politics and foreign policy—including the Iranian nuclear program.

The Two-State Trap in the Mideast

Ehud Eiran and Nir Eisikovits — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 12:00:06 -0400

"...A weak (or even worse, a failed) Palestinian state next to Israel will most likely lead not to the end of violence, but rather to its perpetuation. This is also a dangerous dichotomy, as it does not leave room for failure despite the fact that failure may come. The Palestinian national movement is deeply divided, and the Israeli public fears — based on the lessons of the withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza — that leaving the West Bank would compromise its security. The logical conclusion from presenting a binary map for the future — two states or war — when a two-state option is highly unlikely, is that the proposed frame has a great potential to destabilize the situation, rather than calm it.

Obama’s Worthy Gesture

Rami Khouri — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:54:13 -0400

In his speech in Cairo, Barack Obama sought a new beginning, which we all badly need. So let's put away the Bible and Quran classes, hear from Arab, Iranian and Israeli leaders -- and get down to the tough business of forging better policies.

Obama Should Think Chicago

Rami Khouri — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:04:25 -0400

Obama should focus on three significant issues: 1- the Arab-Israeli conflict, 2- the "resistance front" headed by Syria, Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas, and 3- the lack of democratic, rule-of-law-based governance systems in most Arab countries. And he should tell us what America wants to do about these three issues.

The Changing Face of Israel

Richard Cincotta and Eric Kaufmann — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 22:12:49 -0400

"...Ultra-Orthodox rabbis control access to marriage, conversion, and burial, effectively determining the status of non-haredi private lives across the varied Jewish community. In addition, ultra-Orthodox activists flex their political muscle by censoring advertising and movies, organizing consumer boycotts, mounting mass demonstrations, and harassing secular Jews who violate the Sabbath. Once peace-process-disinterested members of various coalition governments, ultra-Orthodox politicians now rank among the most hawkish in the Knesset, defending haredi settlements on the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. Although less politically cohesive, Israeli Arab voters favor the flip side of the political spectrum, which makes moderate Israelis wonder how their democracy might function should these two groups grow to dominate the electorate."

A New Red Line For Iran

Graham Allison — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:02:02 -0400

"The Iranian nuclear challenge was transformed on President George W. Bush's watch. Events in Iran have advanced faster than the policy community's thinking about the problem. The brute fact is that Iran has crossed a threshold that is painful to acknowledge but impossible to ignore: It has lost its nuclear virginity."

The Significance of the Settlements

Rami Khouri — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:00:27 -0400

The Obama administration has put steel into American insistence that illegal Israeli settlements must be halted. It is the important kick start to progress towards peace making.

Economic Crisis as Catalyst

Rami Khouri — Thu, 28 May 2009 11:57:16 -0400

Will the Arab world change course, and aim to really develop our vast human talent, free the minds and spirits of our youth, and move us towards a path of sustainable economic growth?

Newsmakers

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:04:56 -0400

Belfer Center Newsmakers.

"International Security Journal" Highlights

Wed, 27 May 2009 10:02:57 -0400

International Security is America's leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. The journal is edited at the Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press.

Failing Arab Youth in the Middle East

Rami Khouri — Mon, 25 May 2009 11:54:06 -0400

Though it is true that the generations-old peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians is the most critical Arab issue in the Middle East, providing opportunity for educated young Arabs is equally critical.

Iran's Nuclear Program: An Opportunity for Dialogue

Kayhan Barzegar — Sat, 23 May 2009 19:18:14 -0400

"During the last decades, the hardest and most controversial processes of détente between rival countries like the U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China in the 1960s and 1970s occurred after a hard and intense time following the acceptance of 'comparable roles' in talks. Iran's nuclear program can provide a momentous opportunity for Iran-U.S. détente."

What are They Smoking?

Chuck Freilich — Thu, 14 May 2009 01:55:41 -0400

"The new government in Israel, presumably by way of creating a new obstacle that it can concede and grant to US President Barack Obama as a "concession", has refused to endorse a two-state solution, though this is clearly the only viable option for preserving a Jewish and democratic Israel. By convincing the world that it is Israel—which favored a two-state solution in 1936, 1947, Camp David 2000 and most recently under Olmert—not the Palestinians, which objects to this, Netanyahu has caused severe damage to Israel's image. Moreover, his obstinacy has played into the hands of those who wish to create a fallacious and dangerous linkage between the peace process and the Iranian nuclear program, the last thing Israel should want."

Peacemaking Needs Two Sides

Rami Khouri — Wed, 13 May 2009 10:35:37 -0400

"The Arab world is once again correctly expressing its sincerity in negotiating a comprehensive peace agreement with Israel. But it should not repeat the mistakes of the past -- making continuous concessions before getting back concessions in return."