Middle East Initiative

The Protest to Parliament Pipeline

Belfer Center — Jul 23, 2024

Jul 23, 2024

In the lead up to the October 2021 federal elections, the streets of Baghdad were lined with posters of female candidates. Some were familiar faces with clear political baggage and history, like Sara Iyad Allawi, the daughter of Iraq’s former prime minister. Others were former members of parliament from entrenched political parties. What drew the most excitement from observers, however, were the campaigns of civil activists who had participated in the October protest movement. Locally known as the “Tishreen Movement”, the October protest movement was the largest sustained protest movement in post-2003 Iraq’s history, which took place between October 2019 and February 2020 and involved the participation of hundreds of thousands across multiple cities. The protest movement succeeded in pushing for a new electoral law and in holding early elections, though the elections were only six months ahead of the traditional schedule by the time they were organized. These women represented a new type of female candidate, one without ties to the entrenched elite and who represented. Iraq’s youthful society. Their participation, like the protest movement itself, heralded to many a new era of Iraqi politics, one where younger women were confident enough to run for office and who relied on grassroots campaigning and social media.

Why Iran's New President Won't Change His Country

Belfer Center — Jul 16, 2024

Jul 16, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar's analysis posits that yet even if Khamenei gives Pezeshkian a relatively long leash, his government is unlikely to negotiate another ambitious nuclear agreement. It will, instead, look to ink a deal that could freeze or incrementally scale back Iran's nuclear advances, including by reducing the quality and quantity of the uranium Iran enriches, in exchange for sanctions relief. Such a transactional deal would have multiple advantages for Pezeshkian. Given Khamenei's support, Iran's conservatives would be less likely to sabotage that deal than they were the 2015 agreement. And it would be easy for Tehran to ramp up its program if the United States withdraws again, as occurred under President Donald Trump in 2018.

Tunisia Abandons Two-State Solution; Courts Iran, China, and Russia

Belfer Center — Jun 5, 2024

Jun 5, 2024

The war in Gaza has accelerated a major shift in Tunisia’s foreign policy. One of the first Arab countries to advocate for a two-state solution, Tunisia has now abandoned it. That shift has left Tunisia more isolated geopolitically, prompting it to now court Iran, China, and Russia.

The Death of an Iranian Hard-Liner

Belfer Center — May 24, 2024

May 24, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar writes that former Iranian President Raisi will be remembered for putting the country on the right path after a series of presidents who challenged the supreme leader's vision. He will be memorialized for positioning Iran as a nuclear threshold state and establishing it as a rising power—and for doing so not despite external pressure, but because of it.

Kuwait’s Suspended Parliament: Where Does the Public Stand?

Belfer Center — May 23, 2024

May 23, 2024

MEI Fellow Yuree Noh assesses public opinion in Kuwait following the suspension of its parliament.

The Day-After Peace in Gaza Will be Fragile. Here’s How to Make it Work.

Belfer Center — May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing increased pressure to agree to a hostage and cease-fire deal, including from close allies like President Biden, Benny Gantz and Yoav Gallant. But key to any long-term cease-fire is the question of who will police the Gaza Strip the next day. In some ways, it is easier to imagine a “day after the day after.” It entails a reformed, legitimate Palestinian Authority that takes control of both the West Bank and Gaza and engages in serious negotiations for a two-state solution. But how to get there? How will the transition between a cease-fire and the establishment of a revitalized Palestinian Authority be managed in Gaza?

Six disparate expert voices at the Kennedy School on the Israel-Hamas war

Belfer Center — May 14, 2024

May 14, 2024

Excerpts from remarks of participants in the Middle East Dialogues series led by HKS Professor Tarek Masoud throughout the 2024 spring semester.

Diving deep into disagreements on the Israeli-Hamas war at Harvard Kennedy School

Belfer Center — May 14, 2024

May 14, 2024

In a semester-long series, HKS Professor Tarek Masoud interviewed Middle East scholars and policymakers—from a Trump administration strategist to Palestinian intellectuals—on their vastly different views on the war.

Why Militaries Support Presidential Coups

Belfer Center — May 7, 2024

May 7, 2024

If you want to understand why generals support a presidential power grab, then you need to understand the logic that motivates them. Why they leave the barracks — and what we must do to get them to stand down.

US-Israel Relations Are at a Crossroads

Belfer Center — Apr 18, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

This was originally published in The Hill on April 18, 2024.

The impact of Iran’s attack on Israel

Belfer Center — Apr 15, 2024

Apr 15, 2024

Brookings scholars offer their insights following Iran’s drone and missile attack against Israel on April 13, 2024. Their responses provide perspectives on the implications for various actors as well as a range of policy issues.

The Gulf Moment and the Making of the Khaleeji State

Belfer Center — Apr 5, 2024

Apr 5, 2024

The paper argues for putting aside the old rentier state paradigm that has long dominated Gulf literature, considering the emergence of both the Gulf Moment and the United Arab Emirates Momentum (henceforth UAE Momentum). Instead, it offers a novel analytical concept of the Khaleeji state, incorporating both the exceptionalist and normalist approaches to Gulf studies. The Khaleeji state is also a way to comprehend the unfolding of the Gulf Moment. The term Gulf Moment indicates the profound influence that the Arab Gulf States (AGS) maintain over the rest of the Arab world at the turn of the twenty-first century. The UAE momentum is currently the main engine of the Gulf Moment.

6 Months On: What is the Impact of the War in Gaza?

Belfer Center — Apr 5, 2024

Apr 5, 2024

6 months on: What is the impact of the war in Gaza?
Brookings experts reflect on the conflict

Iran and Nuclear Verification: 20 Years of Continuing Sturm and Drang

Belfer Center — Apr 1, 2024

Apr 1, 2024

Report by Trevor Findlay about recent politics surrounding the Iranian Nuclear Program.

Amb. Djerejian Analyzes Sen. Schumer's Comments on Netanyahu

Belfer Center — Mar 14, 2024

Mar 14, 2024

MEI Senior Fellow Edward Djerejian discusses Sen. Schumer’s call for Israeli elections, what a ground operation in Rafah could mean for US policy, and whether a two-state solution is still viable on ABC News Live.

Who Supports Gender Quotas in Transitioning and Authoritarian States in the Middle East and North Africa?

Belfer Center — Mar 12, 2024

Mar 12, 2024

What are the drivers of citizens’ support for electoral gender quotas in transitioning and authoritarian states? Despite extensive research examining public support for women in politics in democracies, we know little about how the public perceives them in less democratic settings. To address this shortcoming, we use original survey data from authoritarian Morocco and transitioning Tunisia – two Arab countries hailed for their progressive gender policies. We argue that in these countries where citizens lack political information, they instead rely on their assessment of the government’s performance to form attitudes toward gender quotas. Furthermore, electoral legitimacy plays an important role in shaping citizens’ support for quotas, which are closely linked to how elections and legislatures operate. The findings offer strong support for our theoretical expectations and uncover important gender differences.

The Day After—in Israel

Belfer Center — Mar 8, 2024

Mar 8, 2024

For the moment, Israel’s priorities are to secure the release of the remaining hostages, eliminate Hamas’s military capabilities, and ensure the safe return of hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens to their communities in both the north and south of the country. But Israel must also take more far-reaching steps to avoid another October 7. To that aim, the state must ramp up defense spending and reinforce its borders. Diplomacy with the Palestinians must be part of the picture, but any mutual arrangement for governing Palestinian areas will have to include strong provisions to prevent the emergence of a remilitarized Palestinian territory. Any progress on longer-term objectives, such as a two-state solution—which is currently perceived as unfeasible and even detached from reality by most Israelis—will require both the support of the United States and normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries.

After Backlash, Harvard Professor Holds Tense Conversation on Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Belfer Center — Mar 7, 2024

Mar 7, 2024

Tarek Masoud, who questioned Iriqat’s views of Oct. 7 and how a two-state solution could be achieved during the event, said in an interview later on Thursday that he was “reasonably confident and hopeful” the discussion was an opportunity for learning, and added he appreciated that Iriqat “did not deny the atrocities of Oct. 7.” Understanding the Palestinian perspective is critical for moving toward peace and a two-state solution, Masoud said. Masoud and Iriqat agreed to discuss her controversial social media posts during the dialogue. Iriqat said that she did not intend to justify the violence on Oct. 7, which included kidnappings of children and elderly, beheadings, and massacres of civilians, but meant to place the attack in the context of a decades-long conflict. She was intensely critical of Israel throughout the conversation, saying the “settler-colonial project started 76 years ago.”

Two peoples. Two states. Why U.S. diplomacy in Israel and Palestine needs vision, partners, and a backbone

Belfer Center — Feb 29, 2024

Feb 29, 2024

Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Ed Djerejian says Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin once told him, “There is no military solution to this conflict, only a political one.” Rabin was assassinated a few years later, and today bullets are flying, bombs are falling, and 1,200 Israelis are dead after the Hamas terrorist attacks of October 7 and nearly 30,000 Gazans have been killed in the Israeli response. Yet Djerejain still believes that a breakthrough is possible even in the current moment, as horrible as it is. Djerejian, a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Relations, says the crisis has shaken the regional status quo to the point where—if the United States pursues diplomacy that includes principled pragmatism, coalition-building, and good old-fashioned backbone—a breakthrough may finally be possible. But in a recent paper he argues that any breakthrough will have to be built around a two-state solution, which he says is the only path to peace and stability not only in Israel and Palestine, but the wider Middle East. Djerejian’s career as a diplomat spanned eight U.S. presidential administrations beginning with John F. Kennedy’s, and he also served as U.S. Ambassador to Syria and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.

Students Aren’t the Obstacle to Open Debate at Harvard

Belfer Center — Feb 22, 2024

Feb 22, 2024

Professors hear a great deal these days about how hard it is to get our students to listen to, much less to engage with, opinions they dislike. The problem, we are told, is that students are either “snowflakes” with fragile psyches or “authoritarians” who care more about their pet causes than about democratic values such as tolerance, compromise and respect for opposing points of view. Students at Harvard, where I teach, returned from winter break in January to an institution that appeared determined to tackle this problem head-on. An email from the undergraduate dean reminded them that “The purpose of a Harvard education is not to shield you from ideas you dislike or to silence people you disagree with; it is to enable you to confront challenging ideas, interrogate your own beliefs, make up your mind and learn to think for yourself."