Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Iran

Suspension of Nuclear Activities Is Not End of Diversion Risks

David Nusbaum — Sun, 14 Jul 2013 15:24:38 -0500

A long-standing goal of diplomacy with Iran is persuading Iran to suspend its enrichment operations while it clarifies its past activities and while negotiations proceed on a more permanent resolution to the nuclear crisis. However, there is problem in using suspension of nuclear material production as a negotiating step: The technical details of suspension have never been clearly defined. The international community needs to be aware of the diversion risks during a suspension of enrichment activities and should mitigate these risks by including the necessary verification measures during negotiations and signing of any agreement on suspension.

Belfer Center Perspectives On Iran

Tue, 18 Jun 2013 12:49:52 -0500

As debate over Iran's nuclear program intensifies, Belfer Center experts on Iran have been interviewed and quoted in numerous media reports and have written opinion pieces on the issues involved. Here are recent published perspectives.

On Iran's Nuclear Program, Obama Should Take a Cue From JFK and 'Go First'

Matthew Bunn — Mon, 10 Jun 2013 10:11:09 -0500

"Fifty years ago, President John F. Kennedy delivered a commencement address at American University whose message echoes down the decades to the challenges America faces today – including the challenge of Iran."

Bold Initiatives to Reduce Tensions – 50 Years Ago and Today

Matthew Bunn — Mon, 10 Jun 2013 09:34:29 -0500

"The fundamental idea that conciliatory actions can help overcome mistrust and misperceptions is as applicable today as it was a half century ago. And certainly the U.S.-Iranian standoff is one of many challenges desperately in need of an approach for beginning to roll back the distorted perceptions that make it so difficult to find whether any genuine common ground exists."

US is Syria’s only hope

Nicholas Burns — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 08:44:00 -0500

Given the recent surge of assistance being given to the Assad regime by Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia, Professor Burns sees this as a call to action for US intervention, which, he argues, may be Syria's only hope at this point.

The New and the Ordinary in the Middle East

Rami Khouri — Tue, 28 May 2013 13:22:16 -0500

May 28, 2013

Every once in a while the Middle East region experiences a series of major and simultaneous developments in several different arenas, indicating that something important is taking place. We are passing through just such a moment this week, with quite dramatic developments in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine-Israel, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and several Arabian Peninsula states, without any sign of what is truly historic and new and what is a passing phenomenon.

Hezbollah's Moment of Reckoning in Qusayr

Rami Khouri — Tue, 21 May 2013 14:16:06 -0500

The battle for Qusayr is only the haphazard spark within the larger Syrian war that could ignite this fire. The real causes of this combustible condition of the Arab region remain the dysfunction of modern Arab states and central governments, the ascendancy of police states and military regimes, the repercussions of the century-long Zionism-Arabism conflict, and the continuing status of the Middle East as a proxy battleground for regional and foreign powers.

U.S. Action in Syria Could Sway Iran on Nukes

Meghan L. O'Sullivan — Tue, 21 May 2013 13:39:53 -0500

Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad must be pleased at how, within a week, the conversation has shifted from his regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons to an international peace conference on Syria’s civil war.

Nuclear Iran: A Glossary of Terms

Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen — Tue, 21 May 2013 08:19:39 -0500

At a time when the possibility of military action against Iran's nuclear program is being debated, the need for a clear understanding of the issues and the controversial science and technology behind them has never been more acute. Toward that end, the Washington Institute and Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs have copublished an interactive online glossary of terms used in the discussion about Iran, prepared by proliferation expert Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen, former deputy director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Why a Middle East Role is Essential for the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

Tytti Erästö and Sven-Eric Fikenscher — Sat, 18 May 2013 15:59:14 -0500

"In the worst case, suspicions about the Iranian nuclear program persist, and the futile war of words between Iran and Israel is taken to a new, multilateral context. In the best case, however, Iran's participation can increase regional actors' confidence in its intentions — a development that could also alleviate Israeli concerns and have a positive effect on the P5+1-Iran negotiations."

New Rules of the Evolving Arab Order

Rami Khouri — Tue, 14 May 2013 09:32:43 -0500

May 14, 2013

The uprisings that erupted across the region as of December 2010 have been the single most important sign of a region-wide malaise that was gnawing at the core of Arab countries for decades, signaled in its earlier stages in the 1980s-90s by the rise of mass Islamist movements that reflected widespread citizen discontent and challenged autocratic governments. The evolving regional order is now entering its most dynamic stage of change, with every component element transforming into something new.

Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2013

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:20:44 -0500

The Summer 2013 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s expanding work on complex cybersecurity issues and Middle East challenges, offers reflections on the role of the U.S. in Iraq, and spotlights work being done by the Center and its affiliates on environment and energy issues.

Out on a Presidential Limb

Charles G. Cogan — Fri, 03 May 2013 11:56:36 -0500

"...[I]n the event of a worst-case scenario in which negotiations completely fail, Barack Obama has committed himself to an unprovoked military attack on Iran, which would have a disastrous effect on world public opinion and lead to unpredictable human and material damage."

Why Maliki Must Go

Nussaibah Younis — Thu, 02 May 2013 06:47:22 -0500

"...Mr. Maliki, who took office in 2006, had a successful first term, he has squandered the opportunity to heal the nation in his second term, which began in 2010. He has taken a hard sectarian line on security and political challenges. He has resisted integrating Sunnis into the army. He has accused senior Sunni politicians of being terrorists, hounded them from power and lost the cooperation of the Sunni community. The result: the political bargain that had sustained the fragile Iraqi state broke down."

The Test to Come: Forgiveness and Reconciliation

Rami Khouri — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 08:15:02 -0500

April 27, 2013

Is reconciliation a feasible option for the Arab world that now seems to be moving in the direction of greater domestic intolerance and warfare? We do not know, and only time will tell. The track record of intra-Arab reconciliation has not been very impressive in recent decades, in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain, Sudan and others.

Reza Aslan: "The Next War? Iran, Israel and the U.S. at the Crossroads" Podcast

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 10:11:45 -0500

April 18, 2013

An audio recording of a conversation with Reza Aslan, internationally acclaimed writer and scholar of religions and founder of AslanMedia.com, on April 4, 2013. This event will be moderated by Tarek Masoud, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School.

Iran's Economy Under Sanctions

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 07:57:57 -0500

April 12, 2013

An audio recording of Professor Djavad Salehi-Isfahani's March 25th talk at MEI on sanctions and Iran's economy.

Regulating the Other: Stories from Iran, Israel and the United Arab Emirates

Wed, 10 Apr 2013 15:44:49 -0500

April 10, 2013

An audio recording of a panel discussion at the Middle East Initiative on citizenship and identity in the Middle East on Monday, March 11.

Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power

David E. Sanger — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 10:14:50 -0500

President Obama's administration came to office with the world on fire. Confront and Conceal is the story of how, in his first term, Obama secretly used the most innovative weapons and tools of American power, including our most sophisticated—and still unacknowledged—arsenal of cyberweapons, aimed at Iran's nuclear program.

Confront and Conceal—with an updated epilogue for this paperback edition—provides an unflinching account of these complex years of presidential struggle, in which America's ability to exert control grows ever more elusive.

Understanding Revolution in the Middle East: The Central Role of the Middle Class

Ishac Diwan — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 11:40:46 -0500

This paper presents the outlines of a coherent, structural, long term account of the socioeconomic and political evolution of the Arab republics that can explain both the persistence of autocracy until 2011, and the its eventual collapse, in a way that is empirically verifable. The changing interests of the middle class would have to be a central aspect of a coherent story, on accounts of both distributional and modernization considerations, and that the ongoing transformation can be best understood in terms of their defection from the autocratic order to a new democratic order, which is still in formation.

Painfully Following Iran in the U.S. Media

Rami Khouri — Sat, 06 Apr 2013 10:43:19 -0500

April 6, 2013

One of the most annoying aspects of spending time in the United States, as I have just done with a month’s working visit there, is to follow the news coverage of Iran in the mainstream American media. Well, calling it “news” coverage is a bit of a stretch, because the mainstream American media is not really reporting news about Iran, but rather repackaged ideological attacks and threats that emanate primarily from the American and Israeli governments.

Assessment of the Nuclear Programs of Iran and North Korea: Foreword

Olli Heinonen — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 15:47:36 -0500

April 2, 2013

During the last two decades, there have been successes but also disappointments in fighting against nuclear proliferation. On the positive side, we witnessed the dismantlement of nuclear weapons programs in South Africa, Iraq, and Libya.

Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Military Dynamics of Nonproliferation

Mansour Salsabili — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 13:56:18 -0500

Ambiguity in Iran's weapon acquisition dynamics exacerbates mistrust, which is the core reason for the present standoff at the negotiating table. This paper elucidates the Iranian military's capability and intention by delving into the main componential elements of weapon acquisition.

'Iran is the Main Beneficiary of the Iraq War'

Max Tholl and Stephen M. Walt — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 18:35:30 -0500

"Iran has always been a major power in that region. Under Saddam however, Iran and Iraq were bitter enemies who fought a long war and were strongly opposed to one another. There was almost a rough balance of power between the two countries. By reducing Iraq's power and by allowing the Shia to become the dominant political force in Iraq, the US removed the main country balancing Iran, and helped bring to power a government that has at least some sympathies and links to Iran. So, Iran is by far the main strategic beneficiary of the Iraq War, which made it even more difficult for the US and its allies to deal with the country."

On Iran, a Deal Only in Principle

David Ignatius — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 10:21:15 -0500

"Mohammad Khazaee, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, took questions this week at an unusual forum hosted by the Asia Society. Critics argued that the forum was simply an opportunity for Iranian propaganda, but as moderator of the discussion, I thought it made an important, if somewhat discouraging, point: There isn’t yet sufficient trust on either side for a broad agreement," writes David Ignatius for the Washington Post.

America and the Middle East-II

Rami Khouri — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 15:08:26 -0500

March 19, 2013

American and other foreign support for Arab autocrats and dictators for over half a century helped to create the conditions of disparity, corruption, and populist despair that ultimately sparked the uprisings and citizen demands for rights that we now witness. The Anglo-American invasion of Iraq has been the single most important stimulus for new terrorists who gravitated to occupied Iraq from many lands, eager to repel the foreign invaders, and who have since seeped out of Iraq to do their dirty deeds in other Arab countries.

Iran's Nuclear Clock and World Diplomacy

Olli Heinonen and Simon Henderson — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 14:39:25 -0500

March 15, 2013

Talks with Iran in Turkey next week and in Kazakhstan next month are important, but Tehran still needs to clarify the details of its controversial nuclear program.

With Iran Posed to be a Regional Player, US Should Find Ways to Repair Relations

Tytti Erästö — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 14:02:09 -0600

"The problem is that, from an Iranian perspective, recent offers fail to suggest that the zero enrichment demand would not be reasserted; sanctions continue to be based on it and the P5+1 continue to refuse to recognize Iran's right to enrichment. The resulting vagueness about end goals is reinforced by the absence of any apparent intention to lift the tightening Western sanctions as part of a potential nuclear deal."

Military's limits show need for America's neglected weapon

Nicholas Burns — Thu, 28 Feb 2013 10:00:02 -0600

Professor Burns argues that we are moving from a decade of war to a decade of diplomacy and that we need to rebuild support for the State Department.

Wooing Russia — and its Influence

David Ignatius — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 14:38:10 -0600

"The administration is exploring ways to engage Russia as President Obama begins his second term. At the top of the list are the biggest U.S. headaches — Syria, Iran and North Korea. The White House thinks that, after a period of frosty relations, Putin is also looking to rebuild a cooperative relationship," writes David Ignatius of the Washington Post.