Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Iran

Bush's U-turn Toward Common Sense

Graham Allison — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 08:09:19 -0500

Graham Allison applauds the decision by the Bush administration to send U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns to the European Union meeting with Iran on Saturday (July 19). This "flip-flop toward reality," Allison says, "represents a major step in overcoming fierce internal struggles within the U.S. and Iran that had left both stuck at stalemate."

Iran, New Iraq and the Persian Gulf Political-Security Architecture

Kayhan Barzegar — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:28:28 -0500

This article investigates the necessity of establishing a new political-security arrangement in the Persian Gulf region in the light of new political developments in the region after the 2003 Iraq crisis. The author argues that following the recent political-security changes in the region and with the shift of Iraq's role from its previous threatening position, together with the prospect of building a friendly coalition between Iran and Iraq, the formation of new political-security architecture is inevitable in the Persian Gulf region. The new arrangement has to be based on the new political-security, cultural and economic realities. The author also argues that the nature of security threat in the region has changed. Under the new circumstances, instead of hard inter-states rivalries, the security challenges are more centered in human security and nations' political demands and expectations. Dealing with these new situations requires establishing mutual cooperation in the region.

Fourth Inning of the Iran-US Game

Rami Khouri — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 11:19:39 -0500

July 14, 2008

In the past four weeks I have been in Washington, I have heard people speak more of Iran than of the local Nationals baseball team, because the Nationals are not playing well and the Iranians are.

Joseph Nye on Smart Power in Iran-U.S. Relations

Joseph S. Nye and Kayhan Barzegar — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:32:33 -0500

This interview elaborates on the applicability of Nye’s theory of “smart power” in the context of the Middle East and particularly Iran. The discussion further pushes the boundaries on how the current U.S policymakers should take into account soft and smart power towards Iran.

Nye: “… if the Americans, in efforts to try to stop the Iranian’s nuclear weapons program, were to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran, they might gain a few years of slowing down the nuclear weapons program but they would lose the whole generation of younger Iranians who would respond in a nationalistic way. So I think that would be a very large cost for a very limited benefit.”

Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz

Caitlin Talmadge — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:54:40 -0500

How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.

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Pretzels and Policies with Mohammad Khatami

Rami Khouri — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 10:13:01 -0500

A conversation with former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami shows, perhaps, a popular sentiment among Iranians for peaceful dialogue -- coming to equitable terms with the West and with other Middle East nations.

A Disastrous Attack on Iran?

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:14:58 -0500

"...Only if the US proves to both domestic and world opinion that it has exhausted all diplomatic possibilities, will it gain support for major economic sanctions, let alone future military action. Iran will probably reject the offer, as it has all others, but we will only know if the option is pursued and it is a vital way station on the road to stronger measures. Talking to Iran does not imply acquiescence, or appeasement."

Iran on Its Heels

Vali Nasr — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 10:00:16 -0500

June 19, 2008

Iran still has considerable influence in Iraq. It may reconstitute the Mahdi Army and pick up the fight against America, using special groups of the type suspected in the Baghdad car bombing Tuesday. It may also try to use nationalist opposition to the U.S.-Iraq "status of forces" agreement to its advantage. But Tehran will find it difficult to regain lost turf in Baghdad or Basra, or to go back to happily supporting Shiites both at the center and in the militias. It will have to choose whether it is with the state or the sub-state actors.

Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order: The Role of the IAEA

Graham Allison and Matthew Bunn — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 15:47:29 -0500

The high-level Commission of Eminent Persons advising the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that meeting the current nuclear challenges and seizing the current opportunities will require a fundamentally reinvigorated global nuclear order, featuring a strengthened IAEA with "additional authority, resources, personnel, and technology." Without a "bold agenda" of steps to strengthen the nuclear order, the Commission warned that there were real risks that terrorists might get a nuclear bomb, that a nuclear accident might occur, or that, as the UN High-Level Panel warned, the world could suffer "a cascade of nuclear proliferation." Preventing such events, the Commission emphasized, is essential for nuclear energy to grow enough to contribute to mitigating climate change, making safety, security, and nonproliferation essential foundations for nuclear energy's future.

Military Elements in a Strategy to Deal with Iran's Nuclear Program

Dr. Ashton B. Carter — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 16:02:03 -0500

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter explores military elements in the U.S. strategy for addressing Iran's nuclear program.

The Shia Factor

Kayhan Barzegar — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 21:13:46 -0500

The new rivalry between two main Muslim communities is the result of the political developments in Iraq. The pragmatic relationship between Iran and the Shia factions in other countries. The fears of Sunni regimes of a Shia crescent moon.

Case Study: Red Teaming Iran's Supreme Leader

Graham Allison — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:02:34 -0500

April 24, 2008

When the key finding of the December National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran was emerging, the intelligence community assigned a group to "red team" Iran's behavior. They were asked to assume that Iran's intention was to deceive the United States into concluding that the Iranian nuclear program had been halted. Although the red team made a persuasive case that Iran's actions were consistent with this objective, the intelligence community ultimately rejected that hypothesis and came to the conclusion it reported.

Blocking Iran's Nuclear Bomb

Graham Allison — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:50:36 -0500

April 24, 2008

Belfer Center Director Graham Allison testified before a subcommittee of the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs on April 24, 2008. He discussed Iran’s nuclear ambitions, current U.S. strategy, and future policy options for blocking Iran’s nuclear bomb.

India-Iran Relations: Key Security Implications

Xenia Dormandy and Ronak D. Desai — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 09:00:12 -0500

While India and the United States have embarked on a campaign to strengthen their bilateral relations, as symbolized by the proposed US-India civilian nuclear deal, it appears as though New Delhi has similarly begun to pursue a more robust relationship with another major power: Iran. The two states have recently expanded cooperation in a number of key areas, including counterterrorism, regional stability, and energy security. What are the implications of this "New Delhi-Tehran Axis" for the United States, and how should Washington respond to growing ties between India and Iran?

Burns Calls for More US Engagement with Iran

Shafique Jamal — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 10:25:17 -0500

March 12, 2008

Nicholas Burns spoke March 11 in the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum, labeling the top challenges facing the world today as global climate change, trafficking in women and children, international drug and crime cartels, and terrorist groups with access to chemical and biological weapons. This last challenge motivated the focus on Iran.

Nicholas Burns, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, speaks on the future of the U.S.-Iran Relationship

Tue, 11 Mar 2008 15:22:44 -0500

Ambassador Nicholas Burns addresses the Forum in a talk entitled, "Clash with Iran: Inevitable or Avoidable?"

Oil for Nukes — Mostly a Bad Idea

Matthew Fuhrmann — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 16:49:05 -0600

"...In 1975, France signed an agreement with Iraq authorizing the export of a research reactor and highly enriched uranium. According to French officials at the time, their aim was to obtain a permanent and secure oil supply from a country that provided 20 percent of its oil.

It worked. But it also had tremendous consequences for international and regional security."

New Iran IAEA Report: Reading Between the Lines

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 08:08:14 -0600

February 28, 2008

With the International Atomic Energy Agency scheduled to release its much-anticipated report on Iran within the next few days, Graham Allison offers his insight and analysis — as well as questions that remain unanswered.

La République de Dieu

Charles G. Cogan — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 16:08:39 -0600

La République de Dieu is a collection of essays on the idea of God; on evangelism ("La République de Dieu"); on Islamic fundamentalism ("L'Islam médiéval"); and followed by empirical chapters analyzing a number of conflicts between the Muslim and non-Muslim world: Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Arab/Israeli.

New Iran IAEA Report: Be Cautious

Joshua Gleis — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 08:48:32 -0600

One should not expect much benefit to come out of the impending IAEA report discussing Iranian nuclear activity, Joshua Gleis writes.

Disavowing the Iran NIE: Smoke Screens or Smoking Guns?

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 11:55:49 -0600

"US policymakers, too, will have to give increasing thought to the options for living with a nuclear Iran, as well as to Israel's considerations. How the US engages with Israel and others regarding the NIE, will have a major effect on crucial decisions they will have to make in the coming months, as well as the long term prospects for containing Iran's nukes."

Iran Eyes the China Card

Kayhan Barzegar — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 14:15:26 -0600

"...China’s fast-growing economy and its extensive demand for Iran’s energy sources have reinforced Iran’s inclination to advance further economic and political-strategic cooperation with China. Today, one of Iran’s strategic goals is to bind its energy-rich resources to the South-Asia region via the Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline (IPI), extending the pipeline to China’s markets in future years."

The Costs of Containing Iran: Washington's Misguided New Middle East Policy

Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:00:00 -0600

The Bush administration wants to contain Iran by rallying the support of Sunni Arab states and now sees Iran's containment as the heart of its Middle East policy: a way to stabilize Iraq, declaw Hezbollah, and restart the Arab-Israeli peace process. But the strategy is unsound and impractical, and it will probably further destabilize an already volatile region.

First Test of Annapolis

Rami Khouri — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

December 10, 2007

The United States now has a second chance to get this role right -- if it wishes to do so. The motives and intent of the US remain unclear vis-à-vis brokering an Arab-Israeli peace accord. Also unclear are its capacity and will to be impartial, and to override the powerful influence of pro-Israeli domestic forces in the US. If Washington wants to be a credible, effective monitor and judge, it can and should start with a speedy, firm position on Har Homa/Jabal Abu Ghneim.

The Iran Game, Round Two

Kayhan Barzegar — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"Instead of indirect action and communication, and shows of force, Washington should address the Iranians directly, face to face, and advance a win-win game. Iran's concerns in the region are more strategic and pragmatic. The time has come for the Bush administration to accept that installing a Shiite government in Iraq requires Iran's engagement — and that that government's success, as a part of a new American political order, will require that the U.S. address Iran’s concerns simultaneously."

Meet 'The Decider' of Tehran. It's Not the Hothead You Expect

Vali Nasr — Sun, 09 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

When most Americans think of Iran, they probably think of its incendiary president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Since his election in 2005, Ahmadinejad has gleefully shocked the world with his defiance over Iran's nuclear programs, his ravings about a Shiite messiah, his jeremiads against Israel and his denial that the Holocaust occurred. But while Ahmadinejad is surely the regime's face, he's not its boss. Since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death in 1989, the real power in Tehran has belonged to the country's supreme leader and top cleric, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ahmadinejad makes all the noise, but Khamenei pulls all the strings.

A discussion about the new intelligence on Iran

Vali Nasr — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

December 7, 2007

Vali Nasr discusses the new intelligence on Iran with Charlie Rose.

Get Tehran Inside of the Tent

Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Dialogue, compromise and commerce, as difficult as they maybe, are a means of providing Tehran with incentives to commit itself to regional stability. Instead of militarizing the Gulf and forming up shaky alliances on Iran's periphery, Washington should move toward a local security system featuring all the regional actors.

The View from Iran

Kaveh L. Afrasiabi and Kayhan Barzegar — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"...With the United States and Iran poised for a fourth round of dialogue on Iraq's security, and the latest IAEA report confirming Iran's steady cooperation and increasing nuclear transparency, the stage is now set for a thaw in the hitherto hostile US-Iran relations.

Both sides should heed the call by the head of IAEA, Mohammad ElBaradei, to use the intelligence report as the basis for a comprehensive dialogue geared toward normalization."

Exchanging Rhetoric for Reason with Iran

Jason Notte and Martin B. Malin — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

According to Martin B. Malin, executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the National Intelligence Estimate's not-so-shocking revelation may give the United States and its European allies greater latitude in their discussions with the Iranian government.