Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - China and nuclear issues

China's No-First-Use Policy Promotes Nuclear Disarmament

Hui Zhang — Wed, 22 May 2013 09:46:20 -0500

"If China abandons its no-first-use nuclear pledge, which has guided China’s nuclear strategy since its first nuclear test in 1964, it would severely undermine the global disarmament process, potentially preventing the U.S. and Russian from further reducing their nuclear arsenals and even encouraging the U.S. to expand its nuclear forces. Is China really changing its nuclear policy?"

China Moves Cautiously Ahead on Nuclear Energy

Hui Zhang and Shangui Zhao — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 20:12:18 -0500

"Although China has every intention of continuing nuclear energy development, in the aftermath of Fukushima it has approved a number of plans to enhance safety standards. All of them emphasize that the pace of growth should be controlled to minimize risk."

China, North Korea and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Ben Rhode and Thomas Plant — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 10:17:03 -0500

Once described as ‘as close as lips and teeth’, in recent years the relationship between China and North Korea has become more strained. Beijing has conflicted motivations in its policy towards Pyongyang. The threat to Beijing’s interests if North Korean nuclear weapons or materials find their way into the hands of others outweighs the danger of a regime collapse in Pyongyang.

Belfer Center Newsletter Spring 2013

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:50:46 -0500

The Spring 2013 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s deepening engagement with China.

From the Director

Graham Allison — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:48:58 -0500

"The strategic partnership between Harvard and China is unique among universities of the world," writes Belfer Center Director Graham Allison, "this relationship is reflected in decades of scholarship in Cambridge, tens of thousands of Chinese graduates of Harvard graduate and executive programs, and the policies of both governments that have brought us to this point."

Belfer and Ash Centers Expand U.S.-China Bridge-Building

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:43:24 -0500

Sponsored by the Institute for China-U.S. People-to-People Exchange and by Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer and Ash Centers, the “Challenge and Cooperation” conference at Peking University in January dissected the implications of China’s new leadership and President Obama’s second term. Participants examined the roles the two countries should play in international security and in trade and investment issues.

Ensuring Nuclear Safety and Security in China

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:41:34 -0500

Most of the global growth of nuclear power over the coming decade will occur in China. The safety and security policies guiding that growth are significant far beyond China, since an accident or act of terrorism would affect the use of nuclear energy around the world. In January, the Managing the Atom Project (MTA) held a workshop in Shenzhen, China, to discuss safety and security at China’s nuclear power and fuel cycle facilities.

Why Nuclear Powers Should Start Walking Toward Global Zero

Simon Saradzhyan — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:09:45 -0500

"On April 5, 2009 President Barack Obama gave a speech that was supposed to set the agenda for his presidency in international security. “I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,” he proclaimed in front of an enthusiastic crowd in Prague. Four years later, however, this drive to achieve “Global Zero” seems to have waned to a point when even another round of modest reductions in US and Russian arsenals appears difficult to achieve."

A Chinese Silver Bullet for North Korea’s Nuclear Program?

Simon Saradzhyan — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 13:11:01 -0500

"North Korea’s nuclear test last week indicates that the regime's race to acquire long-range nuclear missiles may have entered its final stretch. If this is the case, then those countries that have been fighting, in vain, to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions might soon find themselves with only one possible secret weapon of their own: China," Simon Saradzhyan of the Belfer Center.

New Book by Graham Allison and Robert Blackwill Explores Global Insights of “Grand Master” Lee Kuan Yew

Sharon Wilke — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 11:03:20 -0600

When Lee Kuan Yew speaks, who listens? Presidents, prime ministers, chief executives, and all who care about global strategy.

Graham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill, two leading strategic thinkers, asked Lee Kuan Yew the toughest questions that matter most to thoughtful Americans weighing the challenges of the next quarter century. The result is their new book, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World – published today by MIT Press.

President Obama's WMD "Czar" Appointed Executive Director of Belfer Center

James F. Smith — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 15:19:27 -0600

Gary Samore, President Obama’s Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control, has been appointed Executive Director (Research) for Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. A former fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program, Samore has served for the past four years as the principal advisor to the President on all matters relating to arms control and the prevention of weapons of mass destruction proliferation and WMD terrorism.

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon

Toshi Yoshihara and John R. Holmes — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:54:08 -0500

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age assembles a group of distinguished scholars to grapple with the matter of how the United States, its allies, and its friends must size up the strategies, doctrines, and force structures currently taking shape if they are to design responses that reinforce deterrence amid vastly more complex strategic circumstances.

Safe, Secure and Effective Nuclear Operations in the Nuclear Zero Era

Ronald G. Allen, Jr. — Mon, 24 Sep 2012 18:51:59 -0500

Without significant change in the geopolitical landscape, nuclear weapons will remain a relevant portion of America's long-term national security strategy. Therefore, the burdens and responsibilities of maintaining an effective nuclear deterrent force are paramount to ensure credibility for America and her allies. Bottom line: nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence are still relevant today and for the foreseeable future. Therefore, to maintian international strategic stability we must embrace the necessity of nuclear deterrence, develop strategic policy that supports deterrence as an essential element and adequately resource the enterprise.

Approaches to Strengthen China's Nuclear Security

Hui Zhang — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 10:13:22 -0500

July 15, 2012

Establishing modern, well-designed nuclear material protection, control, and accounting (MPC&A) systems to secure nuclear material in China is very important to prevent against nuclear terrorism. At the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, Chinese President Hu Jintao made clearly commitments to strengthening nuclear security. This paper will assess China’s material protection, control, and accounting approaches, analyze existing regulations and administrative systems, and propose ways of strengthening them.

China’s Nuclear Weapons Modernization: Intentions, Drivers, and Trends

Hui Zhang — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 10:06:50 -0500

July 15, 2012

This piece will discuss the intentions and drive of China‘s nuclear weapons modernization, the meaning of Chinese minimum deterrence, and the trends of the Chinese nuclear weapons program.

How US Restraint Can Keep China's Nuclear Arsenal Small

Hui Zhang — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 14:00:45 -0500

July 13, 2012

China currently has far fewer nuclear weapons than the U.S., possibly the fewest of the five original nuclear weapons states. But if China feels threatened by the deployment of U.S. missile defenses, that could well change.

China Responds to Fukushima

Yun Zhou — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 08:16:44 -0500

June 28, 2012

Before the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, China had big nuclear expansion plans, with more than 40 reactor units under construction or in planning. The Fukushima disaster led China to conduct safety inspections of all its reactors and to suspend nuclear project approvals until a new nuclear safety plan could be adopted. Under Beijing's new safety regulatory system, reactors that are operating or under construction will be spared major redesign, but future projects will face re-engineering, perhaps leading the Chinese to adopt safer third-generation reactor designs created by Chinese firms.

Recommendations for Small Light Water Reactor Development in China

Yun Zhou — Thu, 03 May 2012 09:26:46 -0500

Abstract: This paper summarizes the history and features of advanced small light water reactor (ASWR), and provides recommendations and strategies on ASWR research and development in China. the ASWR can be used in remote power grid and replaces mid/small size fossil plant economically, and thus can be an important part of energy saving and emission reduction policy. the safety and economy characteristic of ASWR are able to effectively expand nuclear energy marekt in emerging countries and developing countries. therefore, ASWR should be considered as a critical part of China's nuclear technology and equipment export strategy.

Northeast Asia's Nuclear Future

James Platte — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 18:23:56 -0500

"The negative impact of Fukushima and North Korea's dangerous nuclear politicking stand in stark contrast to the promise of growing nuclear sectors in China and South Korea. While preventing nuclear terrorism and strengthening nuclear security globally are urgent issues, how the nuclear dynamics of Northeast Asia plays out in the coming years will be more critical for the future of the global nuclear industry."

Center Prepares Dossier for Seoul Nuclear Summit

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 09:11:12 -0500

When President Barack Obama hosted nearly 50 heads of state in Washington, D.C. for the first global Nuclear Security Summit in 2010, the Belfer Center made available to the leaders and their sherpas a range of relevant background materials and information. With the arrival of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit, the Center created www.nuclearsummit.org – an online Nuclear Security Summit dossier.

Progress on Securing Nuclear Weapons and Materials: The Four-Year Effort and Beyond

Matthew Bunn, Eben Harrell and Martin B. Malin — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 12:10:06 -0500

On the eve of the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, South Korea, a new study finds that an international initiative to secure all vulnerable nuclear stockpiles within four years has reduced the dangers they pose.

China’s Plutonium Recycling: Policy Considerations

Hui Zhang — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 13:07:34 -0500

March 22, 2012

A presentation to the International Symposium on Nuclear Security and the Korean Peninsula on the policy considerations of China's plutonium recycling plans.

Rethinking Chinese Policy on Commercial Reprocessing

Hui Zhang — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 12:56:55 -0500

This paper will discuss the status of China’s nuclear power reactors, breeders, and civilian reprocessing programs. In addition, this paper will examine whether the breeders and civilian reprocessing programs make sense for China, taking into account costs, proliferation risks, energy security tradeoffs, health and environmental risks, and spent fuel management issues.

China’s Nuclear Energy Industry, One Year After Fukushima

Yun Zhou — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 14:11:51 -0600

March 5, 2012

It has been one year since the disastrous nuclear accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Experts now view Fukushima as the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl in 1986.

In the aftermath, the Chinese government promptly reaffirmed that nation’s nuclear energy policy. Yet China also became the only nation among all major nuclear energy states that suspended its new nuclear plant project approvals. Before it would restart approvals, China said it would:

1) Conduct safety inspections at all nuclear facilities

2) Strengthen the approval process of new nuclear plant projects

3) Enact a new national nuclear safety plan

4) Adjust the medium and long-term development plan for nuclear power

Where is China on this path, and what is the future of its nuclear power industry?

Nuclear Modernization in China

Hui Zhang — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:22:41 -0600

This new, groundbreaking study by Reaching Critical Will explores in-depth the nuclear weapon modernization programmes in China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and analyzes the costs of nuclear weapons in the context of the economic crisis, austerity measures, and rising challenges in meeting human and environmental needs.

China’s Nuclear Power Industry after Fukushima and China's Nuclear Safety Practices

Yun Zhou — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:51:43 -0600

March 1, 2012

MTA/ISP Fellow Yun Zhou's presentation to the American Physics Society on safety in the Chinese nuclear industry

China's Commercial Reactors

Jonathan Hinze and Yun Zhou — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 18:28:43 -0600

China's approach to civil nuclear power reactor development will determine the overall tenor of its nuclear power programme long into the future. Its approach, both domestically and through imports, is analyzed, with a focus on the next decade of deployment.

Smart Nuclear Reduction

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 12:41:14 -0600

"The nuclear debate in Washington is only about the past, about a notion of this nation as the better of only two options. It's as if the critics are wondering: why must we tinker with everything that made America once spectacular? Endless discussions about whether America is exceptional or not (and whether this president thinks we are or not) are preconditioned on a memory that equates the size of our nuclear arsenal with our own relevance. It is simplicity in its most perverse form. What makes us exceptional is our capacity to adapt to a world that has changed, not holding onto a world dynamic that ended long ago."

China's Underground Great Wall: Subterranean Ballistic Missiles

Hui Zhang — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:28:36 -0600

January 31, 2012

In a post to the Belfer Center's Power and Policy blog Hui Zhang considers the purposes of China's extensive system of tunnels for ballistic missiles, known as the "Underground Great Wall"

The Defensive Nature of China's "Underground Great Wall"

Hui Zhang — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 09:55:57 -0600

January 16, 2012

A study by Georgetown University's Phillip Karber claims that a vast network of tunnels in China, often called the "underground great wall," could hide up to 3,000 nuclear weapons. Writing in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Hui Zhang argues that the study leaps to unwarranted conclusions based on simplistic reasoning and questionable extrapolation from decades-old estimates of Chinese weapon levels. New information on fissile materials inventories and other authoritative data indicate that China has a nuclear arsenal of a few hundred weapons and that the underground great wall is meant to protect this small deterrent from a first strike.