Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - China and nuclear issues

Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay

William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:31:18 -0500

Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.

La Cina e le Bombe Asiatiche

Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 18:46:46 -0500

As a progressively responsible and cooperative partner of the global, nuclear non-proliferation regime, China faces challenges on multiple fronts that have brought judgment, reflection, and debate, domestically as well as internationally, on its non-proliferation policy. Since 1980s, China's historical reservations about, and skepticism and independence of, the global non-proliferation regime have consequently been gradually transitioning to active participation in and even integration with, as well as strong support of, the process.

Should and Can the FMCT Be Effectively Verified?

Hui Zhang — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:16:37 -0500

Hui Zhang argues that an effective universal Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) would make an important contribution to nuclear disarmament, the nonproliferation regime, and the prevention of nuclear terrorism. However, such a FMCT must have a credible verification regime. Dr. Zhang suggests that it should be technically feasible to establish an effectively verifiable FMCT at a reasonable cost, while protecting national security secrets.

Securing the Bomb 2007

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn provides a comprehensive assessment of efforts to secure and remove vulnerable nuclear stockpiles around the world, and a detailed action plan for reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. Securing the Bomb 2007 was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The full report, with additional information on the threat of nuclear terrorism, is available on the NTI website.

Off-Site Air Sampling Analysis And North Korean Nuclear Test

Hui Zhang — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

In this paper, Zhang explores what information could have been obtained from offsite air sampling analysis. Specifically, he examines how to use the activity ratios of xenon isotopes to identify the North Korean nuclear test and whether the off-site air sampling analysis would be able to distinguish a test from a plutonium-bomb and a HEU bomb.

Revisiting North Korea's Nuclear Test

Hui Zhang — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Hui Zhang re-examines the North Korean explosion on October 9, 2006. His research suggests that the test was likely not a failure if Pyongyang had planned for a yield of 4 kt, as it told Beijing prior to the event.

U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course

Sat, 31 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The United States should approach China with an "Affirmative Agenda," rather than thwart its ambition to become a great power, concludes new Council on Foreign Relations report.

The Minimum Means of Reprisal: China's Search for Security in the Nuclear Age

Jeffrey G. Lewis — Thu, 01 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Jeffery Lewis examines patterns in Chinese defense investments, strategic force deployments, and arms control behavior to assess China's nuclear strategy.

America's Strategic Response to China's Military Modernization

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and Jennifer C. Bulkeley — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and Jennifer C. Bulkeley offer recommendations for America's strategic response to China's military modernization.

King Gyanendra, We Gave You Fair Warning

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 25 Apr 2006 00:00:00 -0500

April 25, 2006

Warnings went unheeded. Now, after two weeks of major demonstrations, the king finally gets it— or at least he says he does. Unfortunately, his actions lag far behind.

Space Weaponization and Space Security: A Chinese Perspective

Hui Zhang — Sat, 01 Apr 2006 00:00:00 -0600

"...China is worried about how U.S. space weaponization plans might affect Chinese national security, international security, and protection of the space environment...."

The Nightmare This Time

Graham Allison — Sun, 12 Mar 2006 00:00:00 -0600

According to a recent Gallup poll, most Americans now view Iran as our country's greatest national enemy. Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC News survey reports that 42 percent of Americans support a military strike to prevent Iran from developing nuclear technology.

Action/Reaction: U.S. Space Weaponization and China

Hui Zhang — Thu, 01 Dec 2005 00:00:00 -0600

"Chinese officials have expressed a growing concern that U.S. space and missile defense plans will stimulate a costly and destabilizing arms race...."

Act Now to Stop a Space Arms Race

Hui Zhang — Fri, 10 Jun 2005 00:00:00 -0500

"While the US views — and characterises — these weapons as defensive, to China and to many other countries the construction of such a system looks more like the development of the Death Star spaceship in the Star Wars film series...."

The U.S. Weaponization of Space: Chinese Perspectives

Hui Zhang — Mon, 16 May 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Presentation at the Nuclear Policy Research Institute Conference:
Full Spectrum Dominance: The Impending Weaponization of Space,
Warrenton, Virginia, May 16–17, 2005.

Nuclear Pact in Real Trouble

Thomas J. Wright — Sat, 07 May 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Could the World Be on the Path to a New Nuclear Crisis?

China's ASAT Capabilities: As a Potential Response to US Missile Defense and 'Space Control' Plans

Hui Zhang — Fri, 01 Oct 2004 00:00:00 -0500

"China is concerned about U.S. missile defense and "space control"plans, which would lead to weaponization of outer space and stimulate a costly and destabilizing arms race. China is further concerned that the US missile defense program, as currently advertised, would neutralize China's strategic nuclear deterrent...."

How to Stop Nuclear Terror

Graham Allison — Wed, 31 Dec 2003 00:00:00 -0600

President Bush has called nuclear terror the defining threat the United States now faces. He's right, but he has yet to follow up his words with actions. This is especially frustrating since nuclear terror is preventable. Washington needs a strategy based on the "Three No's": no loose nukes, no nascent nukes, and no new nuclear states.

We're Still Vulnerable

Graham Allison — Fri, 12 Sep 2003 00:00:00 -0500

Observing the second anniversary of Al Qaeda's assault on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, administration spokesmen sought to highlight progress in the war on terrorism to support President Bush's claim that we're getting safer every day. But if one stands back and asks whether Americans are actually safer from terrorist attacks than we were 12 months ago, a serious answer requires a net assessment. Our safety is a function not only of what our government does, but also of changes in our adversaries' capabilities and motivation.

Is China a Status Quo Power?

Alastair Iain Johnston — Mon, 31 Mar 2003 00:00:00 -0600

Many commentators wonder whether China is a status quo power that will continue to comply with regional and international norms or whether it is a revisionist power increasingly willing to challenge U.S. hegemony.

Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytical Frameworks

David Kang — Mon, 31 Mar 2003 00:00:00 -0600

How successfully has international relations theory captured the post–Cold War Asian experience? David Kang argues that Western scholars are “getting Asia wrong.”

FMCT and PAROS: A Chinese Perspective

Hui Zhang — Thu, 01 Aug 2002 00:00:00 -0500

"China has numerous serious security concerns about US space weaponization proposals and missile defense plans. These concerns would directly affect China's attitude toward the FMCT negotiations...."

Preventing Inadvertent War: Problems and Prospects for Sino-American Crisis Management

Matthew Shannon Stumpf — Sun, 30 Jun 2002 00:00:00 -0500

PDP paper on Sino-American Crisis Management Procedures, Practices, and Organization

National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

Steve Fetter and Charles Glaser — Sun, 01 Jul 2001 00:00:00 -0500

As the debate on a U.S. national missile defense intensifies, the decision about whether the United States should develop an NMD system seems to be giving way to questions over the type of system to be deployed and its scope: For example, should the United States pursue NMD against Russia or China? What are the possible security benefits and costs of limited NMD? What can the United States do to counter the international political fallout of limited NMD?

Whether to "Strangle the Baby in the Cradle": The United States and the Chinese Nuclear Program, 1960-64

William Burr and Jeffrey T. Richelson — Mon, 01 Jan 2001 00:00:00 -0600

Based on an exhaustive study of newly declassified documents, the authors report that the Kennedy administration embarked on a huge intelligence effort that included U-2 flights, satellite reconnaissance, and even talks with the Soviet Union on joint action. By the time of China's first nuclear test on October 16, 1964, however, Kennedy's successor, Lyndon Johnson, and his advisers had decided against direct confrontation with China, having concluded that not only was a nuclear China a threat the United States could live with, but that a confrontation with Beijing on the eve of a presidential election might prove politically unwise.

ABCs of ABM and Missile Defense

Graham Allison — Wed, 31 May 2000 00:00:00 -0500

Re-ignition of heated debate about missile defense, the ABM Treaty, and another arms race befuddles many normal Americans. Can these cold-war relics really dominate President Clinton's agenda in his first meeting with Russia's new president next month in Moscow? One is reminded of Yogi Berra's observation that this is "deja vu all over again."

Content of U.S. Engagement with China

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and Dr. William J. Perry — Wed, 01 Jul 1998 00:00:00 -0500

This workshop report describes the policies and programs that will give content to the security dimension of engagement and increase the probability that China will emerge as a security partner, rather than an adversary, of the United States in the 21st century.

Move Closer to China, Not Far, for Security

Dr. Ashton B. Carter, John M. Deutch and Dr. William J. Perry — Thu, 11 Jun 1998 00:00:00 -0500

June 11, 1998

Op-ed by Carter, Deutch, and Perry in USA Today

Nuclear Dangers: Fear Increases of Terrorists Getting Hands on 'Loose' Warheads as Security Slips

Graham Allison — Sun, 19 Oct 1997 00:00:00 -0500

The box-office hit film "The Peacemaker" is a pulse-pounding spellbinder in which terrorists hijack nuclear weapons from Russia, smuggle one into the United States, and target New York City. Unfortunately, that make-believe scenario is a real-life worry.