Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - North Korea -- Nuclear program

Suspension of Nuclear Activities Is Not End of Diversion Risks

David Nusbaum — Sun, 14 Jul 2013 15:24:38 -0500

A long-standing goal of diplomacy with Iran is persuading Iran to suspend its enrichment operations while it clarifies its past activities and while negotiations proceed on a more permanent resolution to the nuclear crisis. However, there is problem in using suspension of nuclear material production as a negotiating step: The technical details of suspension have never been clearly defined. The international community needs to be aware of the diversion risks during a suspension of enrichment activities and should mitigate these risks by including the necessary verification measures during negotiations and signing of any agreement on suspension.

Stephen W. Bosworth Joins Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center as Senior Fellow

James F. Smith — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 14:12:23 -0500

Ambassador Stephen W. Bosworth, who transformed Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy during his 12 years as dean, is joining Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs as a senior fellow. Belfer Center Director Graham Allison said Bosworth would bring to the Kennedy School a wealth of experience as a career diplomat, with a long focus on Asia and the Korean peninsula, areas of intense interest for the Belfer Center.

Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2013

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:20:44 -0500

The Summer 2013 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s expanding work on complex cybersecurity issues and Middle East challenges, offers reflections on the role of the U.S. in Iraq, and spotlights work being done by the Center and its affiliates on environment and energy issues.

North Korea: What’s Next for the Region?

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:18:10 -0500

As threats from North Korea intensified this spring, Korean Peninsula experts from the Belfer Center provided insight and analysis.

North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Future Strategy and Doctrine

Terence Roehrig — Fri, 10 May 2013 14:46:55 -0500

A nuclear North Korea makes it crucial that all countries in Northeast Asia work hard at maintaining a stable security environment that avoids the dangers of a crisis while encouraging North Korea to adopt a nuclear strategy that retains its "no first use" pledge, a strong command and control system, and a stable nuclear weapons posture. Given its relationship with North Korea, China is best positioned to encourage DPRK leaders in these directions.

Dealing with North Korea—What Comes Next?

Terence Roehrig — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 10:57:14 -0500

"A military strike against North Korean nuclear facilities would be very dangerous, possibly setting off a chain of events that could wreck the peninsula. South Korea has made absolutely clear that it will retaliate if North Korea initiates some type of provocation but a direct military strike to eliminate its nuclear program is unlikely. Finally, despite some indications of unhappiness with Pyongyang's actions, there are limits to what China is willing to do to exert pressure on North Korea."

China, North Korea and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Ben Rhode and Thomas Plant — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 10:17:03 -0500

Once described as ‘as close as lips and teeth’, in recent years the relationship between China and North Korea has become more strained. Beijing has conflicted motivations in its policy towards Pyongyang. The threat to Beijing’s interests if North Korean nuclear weapons or materials find their way into the hands of others outweighs the danger of a regime collapse in Pyongyang.

Obama's Nuclear Vision - or Illusion?

Graham Allison — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 08:42:22 -0500

"Four years ago today, President Obama gave his first speech abroad. In Prague, he announced a bold vision for a “world without nuclear weapons.” Four years on, it is fair to ask: How is that working out? Assessing all the positives, and all the negatives, are we closer to the president’s aspiration — or further from it?"

Five thoughts about North Korea

Nicholas Burns — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 10:14:37 -0500

Professor Burns shares his thoughts on how we might understand the politics and future trajectory of the latest crisis involving North Korea.

A Chinese Silver Bullet for North Korea’s Nuclear Program?

Simon Saradzhyan — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 13:11:01 -0500

"North Korea’s nuclear test last week indicates that the regime's race to acquire long-range nuclear missiles may have entered its final stretch. If this is the case, then those countries that have been fighting, in vain, to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions might soon find themselves with only one possible secret weapon of their own: China," Simon Saradzhyan of the Belfer Center.

North Korea Stirs Cuban Crisis Memory

Hui Zhang — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 09:58:39 -0500

"President Barack Obama and Kim Jong-eun could end up confronting each other 'eyeball to eyeball', each with nuclear weapons on hair trigger, as president John F Kennedy and Nikita Khruschev did over five decades ago during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. However, the younger and less-experienced Kim of the smaller and isolated Kingdom might not behave as rationally as Khruschev."

North Korea and the Price of Patience

David Ignatius — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 11:04:56 -0500

"The Obama administration’s approach toward North Korea has been described as 'strategic patience.' A more accurate evaluation of U.S. policy would be “failure.” The administration has alternately wooed and threatened North Korea for four years, with no discernible effect.

Here’s what failure looks like: Since President Obama took office, Pyongyang has conducted several missile tests and two nuclear weapons tests, the most recent on Feb. 12. When the international community has tried to hold Pyongyang accountable, the regime has become even more erratic," warns David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

North Korea’s Nuclear Test of China

William H. Tobey — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 08:14:58 -0500

March 18, 2013

The most recent North Korean nuclear detonation is as much a test of China’s foreign policy as it was of the DPRK’s ability to induce atomic fission. It exposes outdated assumptions and policies, and the pernicious effects of China’s mushrooming foreign trade and investment in North Korea. Beijing’s relations with Pyongyang are guided by the International Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, which still thinks of the 1950 conflict as “the war to resist America and aid Korea.” The policy that China and North Korea should be as close as “lips and teeth” is a relic of the Cold War. The notion that North Korea could or should somehow act as a “buffer state” in an era of air power and massive Chinese trade with the South is equally archaic. Click the link below for the full text of this article:

China's North Korea Dilemma

Hui Zhang — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 13:41:02 -0600

"From China's perspective, the crisis is driven by Washington and Pyongyang. North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear ambitions until it gets from the U.S. what it covets most: a reliable security assurance. This would mean an end to Washington's pursuit of regime change. If Washington does not move in this direction, Pyongyang will continue to escalate the crisis. Any resolution of the impasse has to address the reasonable security concerns of North Korea."

Not So Fast: Pyongyang's Nuclear Weapons Ambitions

Dana Struckman and Terence Roehrig — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 18:13:30 -0600

"While concern for North Korea's push to become a relevant nuclear power is warranted, it is equally important to recognize the very serious technical issues that have plagued Pyongyang's efforts to date. Building a nuclear weapon and its delivery system, and then keeping them operational for the long term is hard—even harder for those states attempting to do it under the umbrella of international sanctions and monitoring."

North Korea's Third Nuclear Test: Plutonium or Highly Enriched Uranium?

Hui Zhang — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 18:43:24 -0600

"North Korea has only a small supply of plutonium—material that it had stopped producing by 2008—and had more recently demonstrated an operational capability to enrich uranium, which would support a much larger arsenal of weapons given North Korea's huge deposits of natural uranium.... However, the seismic signals are useless in this regard. The question is, then, can the off-site environmental sampling analysis distinguish a plutonium explosion from a HEU explosion?"

North Korea's Lesson: Nukes for Sale

Graham Allison — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 13:52:04 -0600

THE most dangerous message North Korea sent Tuesday with its third nuclear weapon test is: nukes are for sale. Graham Allison writes in the New York Times that the real significance of North Korea's overnight nuclear test is that this particular test was, in the estimation of American officials, most likely fueled by highly enriched uranium, not the plutonium that served as the core of North Korea’s earlier tests. "Testing a uranium-based bomb would announce to the world — including potential buyers — that North Korea is now operating a new, undiscovered production line for weapons-usable material."

President Obama's WMD "Czar" Appointed Executive Director of Belfer Center

James F. Smith — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 15:19:27 -0600

Gary Samore, President Obama’s Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control, has been appointed Executive Director (Research) for Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. A former fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program, Samore has served for the past four years as the principal advisor to the President on all matters relating to arms control and the prevention of weapons of mass destruction proliferation and WMD terrorism.

Deciphering North Korea's New Year's Address: The Real Road Ahead

John S. Park — Sat, 19 Jan 2013 08:57:30 -0600

Kim Jong-eun's New Year's Day address signaled a willingness to ease tensions with South Korea and focus on economic development, but how credible is this message? Project on Managing the Atom Associate and MIT Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow John Park analyzes the address in an HKS PolicyCast.

The Leap in North Korea's Ballistic Missile Program: The Iran Factor

John S. Park — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 13:00:33 -0600

John S. Park, Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Project on Managing the Atom Associate, argues that cooperation between North Korea and Iran has been a critical—yet underexamined—enabler of North Korea's recent success. He concludes that the time has come for the United States to view the two previously independent missile programs as two sides of the same coin and recommends strategies for disrupting the procurement channels between Iran and North Korea.

Antiproliferation: Tackling Proliferation by Engaging the Private Sector

Ian J. Stewart — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 08:18:54 -0500

Illicit trade from the international marketplace plays a direct role in sustaining the nuclear and missile programs of several countries, including Iran, in defiance of UN sanctions. This paper sets out what measures the private sector should take in order to manage the legal, financial and reputational risks associated with involvement in proliferation-related trade, and makes recommendations to national authorities for how for how to help the private sector identify and prevent potential proliferation.

North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program: Motivations, Strategy, and Doctrine

Terence Roehrig — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 20:15:34 -0500

Despite continuing efforts to convince North Korea to relinquish its nuclear capability, it appears increasingly unlikely that it will ever do so. Pyongyang might be willing to curtail or freeze certain parts of the program but the likelihood of North Korean denuclearization is quickly fading. With Pyongyang likely to retain some level of nuclear-weapons capability, analysis turns to an assessment of how these weapons might be integrated into its defense posture. Using deterrence theory as the analytical framework, this chapter examines possible avenues for North Korea's nuclear weapons strategy and doctrine.

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon

Toshi Yoshihara and John R. Holmes — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:54:08 -0500

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age assembles a group of distinguished scholars to grapple with the matter of how the United States, its allies, and its friends must size up the strategies, doctrines, and force structures currently taking shape if they are to design responses that reinforce deterrence amid vastly more complex strategic circumstances.

Global Korea: South Korea's Contributions to International Security

Scott Bruce, John Hemmings, Balbina Y. Hwang, Terence Roehrig and Scott Snyder — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 17:40:44 -0500

Given the seriousness of the ongoing standoff on the Korean peninsula, South Korea's emergence as an active contributor to international security addressing challenges far from the Korean peninsula is a striking new development, marking South Korea's emergence as a producer rather than a consumer of global security resources. This volume outlines South Korea's progress and accomplishments toward enhancing its role and reputation as a contributor to international security.

Winners Announced for Cuban Missile Crisis Lessons Contest

Fri, 19 Oct 2012 13:23:09 -0500

On the 50^th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and Foreign Policy Magazine invited policymakers, scholars, students, and members of the public to propose 300-word lessons for today’s leaders from the 13 days in 1962 when the world stood on the brink of nuclear war. Today, the Belfer Center and Foreign Policy are pleased to announce the winners of the Cuban Missile Crisis lessons contest.

Assessing the Role of Security Assurances in Dealing with North Korea

John S. Park — Thu, 16 Aug 2012 15:44:47 -0500

This chapter examines the relationship between security assurances and North Korean nuclear decision-making by focusing on four key areas: key geopolitical shocks that had a major impact on the North Korean regime; main sources of security assurances for North Korea over its history; this volume's hypotheses on security assurances based on how North Korea reacted to geopolitical shocks; and conditions under which security assurances may be most effective in dealing with North Korea in the future.

Analysis of Small Particles in Support of Big Decisions

Olli Heinonen — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 10:35:36 -0500

June 1, 2012

Olli Heinonen, senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, made this presentation on the inauguration of a new multimillion dollar instrument at the Transuranium Institute in Germany on June 1, 2012.

Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2012

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:21:53 -0500

The Summer 2012 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights Belfer Center involvement with the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit and other activities to help shape debate on national and global security. We also spotlight Henry Kissinger’s return to Harvard and his remarks about power and politics, James Baker’s acceptance of the 2012 Great Negotiator Award, and Graham Allison’s cover story in TIME magazine describing decisions behind the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. And more....

Q&A: John S. Park

John S. Park — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:11:53 -0500

John Park, a senior research associate at the U.S. Institute of Peace and currently a visiting fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom, recently sat down with for a one-on-one interview where he talked about his work with the Center and his contributions to the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit.

Commentary and Critique: North Korea

Wed, 16 May 2012 13:07:08 -0500

A small sampling of Belfer Center perspectives on the future of North Korean politics.