Belfer Center Topics

The Trump/Vance Unilateralist Delusion

Belfer Center — Jul 25, 2024

Jul 25, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that if Trump and Vance win in November, it will do enormous long-term damage to America's global position.

Why Iran's New President Won't Change His Country

Belfer Center — Jul 16, 2024

Jul 16, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar's analysis posits that yet even if Khamenei gives Pezeshkian a relatively long leash, his government is unlikely to negotiate another ambitious nuclear agreement. It will, instead, look to ink a deal that could freeze or incrementally scale back Iran's nuclear advances, including by reducing the quality and quantity of the uranium Iran enriches, in exchange for sanctions relief. Such a transactional deal would have multiple advantages for Pezeshkian. Given Khamenei's support, Iran's conservatives would be less likely to sabotage that deal than they were the 2015 agreement. And it would be easy for Tehran to ramp up its program if the United States withdraws again, as occurred under President Donald Trump in 2018.

The Non-Proliferation Problem

Belfer Center — Jul 9, 2024

Jul 9, 2024

Those harboring doubts about the viability of nuclear non-proliferation ought to consider the lessons of the past 75 years. Even if it proves impossible to contain this catastrophically destructive technology completely, a world with fewer nuclear-armed states is exponentially safer than one with many of them.

Reducing Nuclear Dangers

Belfer Center — Jun 20, 2024

Jun 20, 2024

Matthew Bunn argues that governments need help from scientists and engineers both in understanding the dangers that nuclear weapons continue to pose and in finding paths to reduce them.

AI and the Decision to Go to War: Future Risks and Opportunities

Belfer Center — Jun 7, 2024

Jun 7, 2024

This short article introduces our Special Issue on 'Anticipating the Future of War: AI, Automated Systems, and Resort-to-Force Decision Making'. The authors begin by stepping back and briefly commenting on the current military AI landscape. They then turn to the hitherto largely neglected prospect of AI-driven systems influencing state-level decision making on the resort to force.

When Actions Speak Louder Than Words: Adversary Perceptions of Nuclear No-First-Use Pledges

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Would the world be safer if the United States pledged to never use nuclear weapons first? Supporters say a credible pledge would strengthen crisis stability, decrease hostility, and bolster nonproliferation and arms control. But reactions to no-first-use pledges by the Soviet Union, China, and India suggest that adversaries perceive pledges as credible only when the political relationship between a state and its adversary is already relatively benign, or when the state’s military has no ability to engage in nuclear first use against the adversary.

Old and New Lessons from the Ukraine War

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Joseph Nye Russia's war on Ukraine is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end. Nonetheless, the past two years have borne out several predictions concerning what does and does not work in twenty-first-century conflicts involving major powers.

When Foreign Countries Push the Button

Belfer Center — Jun 3, 2024

Jun 3, 2024

Is there a norm against using nuclear weapons? Many policymakers believe that allied countries would severely condemn a state’s nuclear use. But survey research in the United States and India finds high absolute support for nuclear use, and that the public supports nuclear attacks by allies and strategic partners as much as those by the public’s own government.

The Death of an Iranian Hard-Liner

Belfer Center — May 24, 2024

May 24, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar writes that former Iranian President Raisi will be remembered for putting the country on the right path after a series of presidents who challenged the supreme leader's vision. He will be memorialized for positioning Iran as a nuclear threshold state and establishing it as a rising power—and for doing so not despite external pressure, but because of it.

The Iran-Russia Friendship Won't Wither Under Raisi's Successor

Belfer Center — May 21, 2024

May 21, 2024

Nicole Grajewski describes former Iranian President Raisi’s hardline stance and his willingness to deepen ties with Russia as assets. Collaboration with a like-minded authoritarian with a bent for confronting the West proved particularly valuable after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Day After Iran Gets the Bomb

Belfer Center — May 14, 2024

May 14, 2024

Stephen Walt explores possible scenarios if Iran acquires a nuclear capability.

US-China Cooperation Remains Possible

Belfer Center — May 6, 2024

May 6, 2024

Joseph S. Nye advocates for identifying areas for cooperation between the United States and China such as climate change and public health.

Is Iran's Strategic Patience at an End?

Belfer Center — Apr 23, 2024

Apr 23, 2024

Assaf Zoran examines the dynamics of Iran's shift from operating in the shadows or behind partners and proxies to directly attacking Israel and Pakistan.

The Enormous Risks and Uncertain Benefits of an Israeli Strike Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Belfer Center — Apr 18, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Assaf Zoran argues that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities may have the opposite result of prompting an escalation in Iran’s nuclear developments, a pattern previously observed in response to kinetic actions attributed to Israel.

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the Global Nuclear Order

Belfer Center — Apr 17, 2024

Apr 17, 2024

Mariana Budjeryn presents "Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the Global Nuclear Order" at the DOE/NNSA Administrator's Strategy Forum

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Says More…

Belfer Center — Apr 2, 2024

Apr 2, 2024

This week in Say More, Project Syndicate talks with Joseph S. Nye, Jr., an emeritus professor at Harvard Kennedy School, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense, and the author, most recently, of A Life in the American Century.

Iran and Nuclear Verification: 20 Years of Continuing Sturm and Drang

Belfer Center — Apr 1, 2024

Apr 1, 2024

Report by Trevor Findlay about recent politics surrounding the Iranian Nuclear Program.

Putin’s Latest Nuclear Messaging: Softer Tone or Threat of Use?

Belfer Center — Mar 15, 2024

Mar 15, 2024

On March 13, President Vladimir Putin granted an interview, in which he again delved into the conditions under which he says he would initiate the use of nuclear weapons. His remarks were so ambiguous that it caused mainstream Western media organizations—which tend to agree on what to emphasize in news out of the Kremlin—to put divergent headlines on the news stories that they ran about this particular interview. “Putin, in Pre-Election Messaging, Is Less Strident on Nuclear War. The Russian leader struck a softer tone about nuclear weapons in an interview with state television,” was the NYT’s headline. In contrast, the FT’s headline was “Russia ‘prepared’ for nuclear war, warns Vladimir Putin. President resumes bullish rhetoric over use of atomic arsenal if west threatens Moscow’s sovereignty,” while CBS News ran with “Putin again threatens to use nuclear weapons, claims Russia's arsenal ‘much more’ advanced than America's” and WSJ led with “Putin Rattles Nuclear Saber Ahead of Presidential Elections; Raising specter of nuclear confrontation.” So, which is it? Has Putin just struck a softer tone about nuclear weapons or has he rattled his nuclear saber yet again? The answer is both.

Strategic Myopia: The Proposed First Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Defend Taiwan

Belfer Center — Mar 14, 2024

Mar 14, 2024

David Kearn argues that the idea that the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945 would be by the United States in the defense of Taiwan against a conventional Chinese invasion would have significant, negative, and long-lasting, diplomatic ramifications. It is difficult to fathom the myriad potential consequences, but U.S. nuclear weapon use would almost certainly shatter the non-proliferation regime as a functioning entity, incentivize states (including China) to acquire or improve their existing nuclear arsenal, and damage America's standing globally.

To Enhance National Security, the Biden Administration Will Have to Trim an Exorbitant Defense Wish List

Belfer Center — Mar 13, 2024

Mar 13, 2024

David Kearn argues that even in the absence of restrictive resource and budgetary constraints, a focus on identifying and achieving concrete objectives that will position the United States and its allies to effectively deter aggression in critical regional flashpoints should be the priority given the stressed nature of the defense industrial base and the nuclear enterprise.