Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Nuclear proliferation

Belfer Center Perspectives On Iran

Fri, 17 May 2013 12:49:52 -0500

As debate over Iran's nuclear program intensifies, Belfer Center experts on Iran have been interviewed and quoted in numerous media reports and have written opinion pieces on the issues involved. Here are recent published perspectives.

North Korea: What’s Next for the Region?

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:18:10 -0500

As threats from North Korea intensified this spring, Korean Peninsula experts from the Belfer Center provided insight and analysis.

Neustadt Award Honors Senators Nunn and Lugar for Nuclear Safety

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:05:00 -0500

"Former Senator Sam Nunn, founder and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative... and former Senator Richard Lugar were awarded the prestigious 2013 Richard E. Neustadt Award at Harvard Kennedy School on May 2... Dean David Ellwood noted that the award is bestowed annually to honor one or more individuals “for creating powerful solutions to public problems, drawing on research and intellectual ideas as appropriate.”

Reza Aslan: "The Next War? Iran, Israel and the U.S. at the Crossroads" Podcast

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 10:11:45 -0500

April 18, 2013

An audio recording of a conversation with Reza Aslan, internationally acclaimed writer and scholar of religions and founder of AslanMedia.com, on April 4, 2013. This event will be moderated by Tarek Masoud, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School.

Safeguards for Pyroprocessing Plants

Olli Heinonen — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:36:40 -0500

Senior Fellow Olli Heinonen discussed pyroprocessing of spent nuclear fuel, its proliferation risks, and safeguards.

Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power

David E. Sanger — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 10:14:50 -0500

President Obama's administration came to office with the world on fire. Confront and Conceal is the story of how, in his first term, Obama secretly used the most innovative weapons and tools of American power, including our most sophisticated—and still unacknowledged—arsenal of cyberweapons, aimed at Iran's nuclear program.

Confront and Conceal—with an updated epilogue for this paperback edition—provides an unflinching account of these complex years of presidential struggle, in which America's ability to exert control grows ever more elusive.

Painfully Following Iran in the U.S. Media

Rami Khouri — Sat, 06 Apr 2013 10:43:19 -0500

April 6, 2013

One of the most annoying aspects of spending time in the United States, as I have just done with a month’s working visit there, is to follow the news coverage of Iran in the mainstream American media. Well, calling it “news” coverage is a bit of a stretch, because the mainstream American media is not really reporting news about Iran, but rather repackaged ideological attacks and threats that emanate primarily from the American and Israeli governments.

Obama's Nuclear Vision - or Illusion?

Graham Allison — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 08:42:22 -0500

"Four years ago today, President Obama gave his first speech abroad. In Prague, he announced a bold vision for a “world without nuclear weapons.” Four years on, it is fair to ask: How is that working out? Assessing all the positives, and all the negatives, are we closer to the president’s aspiration — or further from it?"

Belfer Center Newsletter Spring 2013

Sharon Wilke — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:50:46 -0500

The Spring 2013 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s deepening engagement with China.

Belfer Center Intensifies Focus on China

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:49:53 -0500

The Belfer Center’s faculty and fellows are mounting a multi-pronged academic campaign on China, hoping to influence U.S. policy on how to deal with the rising Asian power. A dizzying array of initiatives is under way.

Spotlight on Gary Samore

James F. Smith — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:39:10 -0500

In the complex world of the United States government, it’s rare for a lone White House official to oversee a real change in direction on a major policy issue. Gary Samore not only helped reshape U.S. policy on one issue; he did so with two immense national security challenges during his four years as President Obama’s Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control.

International Security Journal Highlights

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:31:17 -0500

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. The journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press.

Why Nuclear Powers Should Start Walking Toward Global Zero

Simon Saradzhyan — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:09:45 -0500

"On April 5, 2009 President Barack Obama gave a speech that was supposed to set the agenda for his presidency in international security. “I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,” he proclaimed in front of an enthusiastic crowd in Prague. Four years later, however, this drive to achieve “Global Zero” seems to have waned to a point when even another round of modest reductions in US and Russian arsenals appears difficult to achieve."

Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Military Dynamics of Nonproliferation

Mansour Salsabili — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 13:56:18 -0500

Ambiguity in Iran's weapon acquisition dynamics exacerbates mistrust, which is the core reason for the present standoff at the negotiating table. This paper elucidates the Iranian military's capability and intention by delving into the main componential elements of weapon acquisition.

'Star Wars' Today: What would Reagan do?

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 09:50:09 -0500

"President Reagan stunned fellow citizens and the world 30 years ago this month with a dramatic announcement that the United States would develop and deploy a system capable of intercepting and destroying strategic ballistic missiles." For Reagan, Graham Allison writes, "this was an essential steppingstone to his even grander vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. [To] persuade America's Cold War adversary to eliminate its superpower nuclear arsenal as well, Reagan proposed to share this SDI technology with Moscow."

Bolstering Nonproliferation through Disarmament Progress

Jeffrey W. Knopf — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 17:29:52 -0500

Critics of the linkage argument argue that the United States and Russia have cut their nuclear arsenals substantially without any noticeable subsequent increase in support for nonproliferation. Nonnuclear weapon states, however, tend not to view nuclear arms reductions as the best indicator of compliance with Article 6; they attach greater weight to policies that convey an intent among weapon states to keep nuclear weapons indefinitely.

North Korea Stirs Cuban Crisis Memory

Hui Zhang — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 09:58:39 -0500

"President Barack Obama and Kim Jong-eun could end up confronting each other 'eyeball to eyeball', each with nuclear weapons on hair trigger, as president John F Kennedy and Nikita Khruschev did over five decades ago during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. However, the younger and less-experienced Kim of the smaller and isolated Kingdom might not behave as rationally as Khruschev."

On Iran, a Deal Only in Principle

David Ignatius — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 10:21:15 -0500

"Mohammad Khazaee, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, took questions this week at an unusual forum hosted by the Asia Society. Critics argued that the forum was simply an opportunity for Iranian propaganda, but as moderator of the discussion, I thought it made an important, if somewhat discouraging, point: There isn’t yet sufficient trust on either side for a broad agreement," writes David Ignatius for the Washington Post.

How the US should handle Iran

Nicholas Burns — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 13:12:37 -0600

Following President Obama's State of the Union address, Professor Burns outlines steps that the administration can take to produce the best possible outcome with US-Iran talks.

North Korea's Lesson: Nukes for Sale

Graham Allison — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 13:52:04 -0600

THE most dangerous message North Korea sent Tuesday with its third nuclear weapon test is: nukes are for sale. Graham Allison writes in the New York Times that the real significance of North Korea's overnight nuclear test is that this particular test was, in the estimation of American officials, most likely fueled by highly enriched uranium, not the plutonium that served as the core of North Korea’s earlier tests. "Testing a uranium-based bomb would announce to the world — including potential buyers — that North Korea is now operating a new, undiscovered production line for weapons-usable material."

View From the Global Tank: Russia Can Shoulder Obama’s Challenges - After a BMD Deal

Simon Saradzhyan — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 13:12:27 -0600

Simon Saradzhyan explains how the growing gap between the U.S. and Russia negatively impacts many goals, both foreign and domestic, outlined in President Obama's second inaugural address, and argues that a deal between the two powers over America's ballistic missile defense (BMD) program in Europe could lead to greater Russian involvement and cooperation in American foreign policy objectives, leaving more time for Obama to address domestic concerns.

President Obama's WMD "Czar" Appointed Executive Director of Belfer Center

James F. Smith — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 15:19:27 -0600

Gary Samore, President Obama’s Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control, has been appointed Executive Director (Research) for Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. A former fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program, Samore has served for the past four years as the principal advisor to the President on all matters relating to arms control and the prevention of weapons of mass destruction proliferation and WMD terrorism.

A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East: Creating the Conditions for Sustained Progress

Martin B. Malin and Paolo Foradori — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 13:37:02 -0600

How can the states of the Middle East begin to create the political conditions for achieving sustained progress toward the elimination of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons? This paper examines the challenges and obstacles that the parties of the region will need to overcome to bring a WMD-free zone into force, and recommends near-term steps for improving regional security.

IAEA’s Integral Role in Ending the Iranian Nuclear Crisis

Olli Heinonen and Mark Hibbs — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 13:08:01 -0600

There is a small opening to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis after the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, write Mark Hibbs and Olli Heinonen. "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called this a 'window of opportunity,' and it is beginning to focus minds on identifying the necessary components of a package deal that will put Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and UN Security Council powers squarely on a path toward conflict resolution."

Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation: Examining the Linkage Argument

Jeffrey W. Knopf — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 09:53:30 -0600

Comparative assessment of the arguments on both sides suggests that signs of commitment to nuclear disarmament by the nuclear weapon states will tend to enhance support for nonproliferation. Because of the multitude of other factors that affect state decisionmaking, however, progress on disarmament will not by itself address all of the challenges to making the nonproliferation regime effective.

The Coming Clash Over Iran

Graham Allison and Shai Feldman — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 14:01:23 -0600

Graham Allison and Shai Feldman write that while the Obama administration and the Netanyahu government were largely on the same page during the Gaza crisis, "much greater turbulence in their relations can be expected by the middle of next year when the issues associated with Iran’s nuclear project will likely reach another crescendo."

Understanding the IAEA's Mandate in Iran: Avoiding Misinterpretations

Olli Heinonen, David Albright and Orde Kittrie — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 09:27:51 -0600

November 27, 2012

Much attention has focused on Iran's advancing nuclear program, on the peace and security concerns which that program has raised, and on the international policy debate over how to respond to that program. Far less attention has been paid to the various legal-sounding arguments used by Iran and a few academics to call into question the mandate of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to investigate and make determinations about actual or suspected violations of Iran’s legal obligations.

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Future Prospects

Olli Heinonen — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 16:02:06 -0600

International diplomacy efforts dealing with Iran’s nuclear program continue to fill the daily news headlines. The efforts of P5+1, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have tried, in various formats, to encourage and enforce Iran to comply with the provisions of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program is not used as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons. The challenge of discovering what has taken place as well as currently with Iran’s nuclear ambitions is difficult not only because of Tehran’s obstructionism, but also because the same nuclear technologies, particularly uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing, can be used for both civilian and military purposes.

Lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis for Today’s Crises

James F. Smith — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 13:51:05 -0500

In Harvard Professor Graham Allison’s view, “the significant unknowns” during the Cuban Missile Crisis nearly catapulted John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev into nuclear war. For former diplomat Nicholas Burns, the principal take-away from the crisis was the importance of giving an adversary a way out of a confrontation short of complete surrender. Allison and Burns were panelists on Oct. 14 at a forum at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum in Boston to consider the modern lessons flowing from the missile crisis. The event kicked off an intensive series of seminars and workshops for scholars from Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs to mark the 50th anniversary of the missile crisis. Panel moderator Juliette Kayyem, Kennedy School lecturer in public policy, reminded the audience that the missile crisis is often framed through the myth of the tough American president staring down the Russian foe and making him blink. Kayyem said that version fails to capture the nuanced secret diplomacy and the American concessions that made a deal possible.

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon

Toshi Yoshihara and John R. Holmes — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:54:08 -0500

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age assembles a group of distinguished scholars to grapple with the matter of how the United States, its allies, and its friends must size up the strategies, doctrines, and force structures currently taking shape if they are to design responses that reinforce deterrence amid vastly more complex strategic circumstances.