Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Nuclear proliferation

La Cina e le Bombe Asiatiche

Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 18:46:46 -0500

As a progressively responsible and cooperative partner of the global, nuclear non-proliferation regime, China faces challenges on multiple fronts that have brought judgment, reflection, and debate, domestically as well as internationally, on its non-proliferation policy. Since 1980s, China's historical reservations about, and skepticism and independence of, the global non-proliferation regime have consequently been gradually transitioning to active participation in and even integration with, as well as strong support of, the process.

100 Grams (and Counting...): Notes from the Nuclear Underworld

Michael Bronner — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:08:26 -0500

This report on the 2006 seizure of weapon-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) in Georgia, by journalist Michael Bronner, provides new insights on both nuclear smugglers and those trying to stop them.

Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order: The Role of the IAEA

Graham Allison and Matthew Bunn — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 15:47:29 -0500

The high-level Commission of Eminent Persons advising the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that meeting the current nuclear challenges and seizing the current opportunities will require a fundamentally reinvigorated global nuclear order, featuring a strengthened IAEA with "additional authority, resources, personnel, and technology." Without a "bold agenda" of steps to strengthen the nuclear order, the Commission warned that there were real risks that terrorists might get a nuclear bomb, that a nuclear accident might occur, or that, as the UN High-Level Panel warned, the world could suffer "a cascade of nuclear proliferation." Preventing such events, the Commission emphasized, is essential for nuclear energy to grow enough to contribute to mitigating climate change, making safety, security, and nonproliferation essential foundations for nuclear energy's future.

Is There a New U.S. Policy for Pakistan?

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:00:20 -0500

"How much will the War on Terror define the new President’s agenda towards Pakistan, as it has President Bush’s? What will this mean for America’s broader policy toward the country, and what are the implications, if any, for India?"

Should and Can the FMCT Be Effectively Verified?

Hui Zhang — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:16:37 -0500

Hui Zhang argues that an effective universal Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) would make an important contribution to nuclear disarmament, the nonproliferation regime, and the prevention of nuclear terrorism. However, such a FMCT must have a credible verification regime. Dr. Zhang suggests that it should be technically feasible to establish an effectively verifiable FMCT at a reasonable cost, while protecting national security secrets.

Next Steps to Strengthen the National Nuclear Security Administration's Efforts To Prevent Nuclear Proliferation

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 12:28:39 -0500

Matthew Bunn testified to the Subcommittee on Energy and Water Appropriations, United States Senate about critical issues for U.S. and world security — nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation, and what more the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) can do to prevent them.

Actions Now for the Day After: Findings of the Preventive Defense Day After Project

Dr. Ashton B. Carter — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:56:55 -0500

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter testifies before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

PDP Co-Director Carter testifies before Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Tue, 15 Apr 2008 14:17:09 -0500

PDP Co-Director Dr. Ashton B. Carter testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs at its hearing on "Nuclear Terrorism: Confronting the Challenges of the Day After."

India's Key Foreign Policy Issues

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 12:00:59 -0500

April 7, 2008

In recent years, India's military, diplomatic and economic energies have expanded far beyond Nehru's Non-Aligned position. But what does that mean for India, its region, and the United States?

The Risk Of Nuclear Terrorism — And Next Steps To Reduce The Danger

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 12:20:43 -0500

Dr. Bunn’s testimony to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs of the United States Senate urges a global campaign to ensure that every nuclear weapon and every cache of potential nuclear bomb material worldwide is secured against the kinds of threats terrorists and criminals have demonstrated they can pose. Bunn highlights the good and bad news about the risk of nuclear terrorism, and assesses the probability of a nuclear terrorist attack. Bunn then proposes several steps to reduce the risk of a nuclear terrorist attack

Review Panel on Future Directions for Defense Threat Reduction Agency Missions and Capabilities to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and The Honorable Robert G. Joseph — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 10:52:37 -0500

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter and the Honorable Robert G. Joseph co-chaired a Review Panel on Future Directions for DTRA Missions and Capabilities to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).

Legalizing Nuclear Abandonment: The Determinants of Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty Ratification

Matthew Fuhrmann and Xiaojun Li — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 13:48:54 -0500

Matthew Fuhrmann and co-author Xiaojun Li examine when and why states ratify regional nuclear weapons free zone (NWFZ) treaties.

The Transfer of Power in Russia

Graham Allison — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 13:37:28 -0500

March 14, 2008

Though the outcome of the presidential election in Russia was a foregone conclusion, many questions remain about when and how which powers will be transferred from whom to whom. Also included below are speculations from Russian colleagues about what the new administration and cabinet may look like.

Expanding Nuclear Energy, Preventing Nuclear Terrorism

Matthew Bunn — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 16:28:03 -0500

March 13, 2008

Matthew Bunn presented "Expanding Nuclear Energy, Preventing Nuclear Terrorism" to the Energy & Security Search Seminar on March 13, 2008.

Burns Calls for More US Engagement with Iran

Shafique Jamal — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 10:25:17 -0500

March 12, 2008

Nicholas Burns spoke March 11 in the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum, labeling the top challenges facing the world today as global climate change, trafficking in women and children, international drug and crime cartels, and terrorist groups with access to chemical and biological weapons. This last challenge motivated the focus on Iran.

Nicholas Burns, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, speaks on the future of the U.S.-Iran Relationship

Tue, 11 Mar 2008 15:22:44 -0500

Ambassador Nicholas Burns addresses the Forum in a talk entitled, "Clash with Iran: Inevitable or Avoidable?"

Oil for Nukes — Mostly a Bad Idea

Matthew Fuhrmann — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 16:49:05 -0600

"...In 1975, France signed an agreement with Iraq authorizing the export of a research reactor and highly enriched uranium. According to French officials at the time, their aim was to obtain a permanent and secure oil supply from a country that provided 20 percent of its oil.

It worked. But it also had tremendous consequences for international and regional security."

New Iran IAEA Report: Reading Between the Lines

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 08:08:14 -0600

February 28, 2008

With the International Atomic Energy Agency scheduled to release its much-anticipated report on Iran within the next few days, Graham Allison offers his insight and analysis — as well as questions that remain unanswered.

What Do We Mean by Zero? Strategic Implications of Different Approaches to the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Matthew Bunn — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 14:58:08 -0600

February 22, 2008

Matthew Bunn presented "What Do We Mean by Zero? Strategic Implications of Different Approaches to the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons," at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization conference on "Nuclear Weapons: The Greatest Peril to Civilization," in New Haven, Conn on February 21-22, 2008.

New Iran IAEA Report: Be Cautious

Joshua Gleis — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 08:48:32 -0600

One should not expect much benefit to come out of the impending IAEA report discussing Iranian nuclear activity, Joshua Gleis writes.

Nuclear Fuel Supply Concept Developed by Debra Decker and Erwann Michel-Kerjan is Featured in the Global Risks 2008 Report of the World Economic Forum

Debra Decker and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 20:24:09 -0600

"A truly innovative concept has been proposed by a joint team from the Wharton Business School and Harvard's Kennedy School: "insure to assure." The proposed solution — complementary to the efforts of the IAEA and others — would create a partnership between financial industries and governments to create the world's first international nuclear fuel insurance fund."

Following START: Risk Acceptance and the 1991-92 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives

Matthew Fuhrmann and Bryan Early — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 09:58:46 -0600

The article explains why in September 1991, shortly after the attempted putsch against Gorbachev, George H.W. Bush launched the unilateral Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs). The PNIs were measures that led to the largest reductions in the American and Soviet/Russian nuclear arsenals to date The article argues that an explanation rooted in prospect theory and a focus on Bush as an individual decision-maker offers the most explanatory power.

A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army's New Limited War Doctrine

Walter C. Ladwig III — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 13:32:58 -0600

India’s inability to coerce Pakistan into halting its support for insurgents in Kashmir, as well as its experience in past conflicts with Pakistan, led it to develop Cold Start—a new offensive military doctrine that will allow it to mobilize quickly and retaliate in a limited manner. Although India is far from realizing its goal, this break from a traditional defensive strategy deserves scrutiny. A history of misperception and mistrust between India and Pakistan, poor intelligence, and domestic insecurity suggests that limited war could quickly escalate to the nuclear threshold, posing a serious risk to the stability of the subcontinent and the rest of the world.

The Economics of Nuclear Energy Markets and the Future of International Security

Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra Decker — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 22:36:13 -0600

This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing "nuclear renaissance." We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market—historically and prospectively—and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.

Correspondence: Do Small Arsenals Deter?

Ward Wilson, Rajesh M. Basrur and Michael D. Cohen — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:46:43 -0600

January 1, 2008

Rajesh Basrur and Michael Cohen respond to Ward Wilson's Spring 2007 International Security article, "The Winning Weapon? Rethinking Nuclear Weapons in Light of Hiroshima."

Exchanging Rhetoric for Reason with Iran

Jason Notte and Martin B. Malin — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

According to Martin B. Malin, executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the National Intelligence Estimate's not-so-shocking revelation may give the United States and its European allies greater latitude in their discussions with the Iranian government.

Matthew Bunn Wins 2007 Hans Bethe Award

Matthew Bunn — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Matthew Bunn was awarded the Hans Bethe Award for science in service of a more secure world from the Federation of American Scientists, on December 3, 2007 in Washington D.C.

Constraining Iran's Nuclear Program: Assessing Options and Risks

Matthew Bunn — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Matthew Bunn presented "Constraining Iran's Nuclear Program: Assessing Options and Risks" to staff members at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on November 15, 2007. He argues, it is time to begin thinking seriously about what the least dangerous options involving some centrifuges in Iran might be, and explores the risks and advantages of an option involving 1-4 cascades with international ownership and a 24/7 international staff for all centrifuge activities.

Global Forecast: The Top Security Challenges of 2008

Carola McGiffert and Craig Cohen — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 17:46:50 -0600

This volume of essays showcases CSIS's collective wisdom on the most important security issues facing America in 2008—the major political, military, and economic challenges likely to have strategic implications for the nation. Some of these challenges depend on political developments in other countries, while others hinge on U.S. actions. Some are regional in focus; others have transnational or global reach. All have the potential to expand into full-scale crises and must be watched and managed carefully.

Risks of GNEP’s Focus on Near-Term Reprocessing

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Matthew Bunn's testimony for the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, Full Committee Hearing on the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP).

Some elements of GNEP could make important contributions to reducing proliferation risks. Unfortunately, GNEP's heavy focus on building a commercial-scale reprocessing plant in the near term would, if accepted, increase proliferation risks rather than decreasing them.