Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Nuclear terrorism

100 Grams (and Counting...): Notes from the Nuclear Underworld

Michael Bronner — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:08:26 -0500

This report on the 2006 seizure of weapon-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) in Georgia, by journalist Michael Bronner, provides new insights on both nuclear smugglers and those trying to stop them.

Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order: The Role of the IAEA

Graham Allison and Matthew Bunn — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 15:47:29 -0500

The high-level Commission of Eminent Persons advising the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that meeting the current nuclear challenges and seizing the current opportunities will require a fundamentally reinvigorated global nuclear order, featuring a strengthened IAEA with "additional authority, resources, personnel, and technology." Without a "bold agenda" of steps to strengthen the nuclear order, the Commission warned that there were real risks that terrorists might get a nuclear bomb, that a nuclear accident might occur, or that, as the UN High-Level Panel warned, the world could suffer "a cascade of nuclear proliferation." Preventing such events, the Commission emphasized, is essential for nuclear energy to grow enough to contribute to mitigating climate change, making safety, security, and nonproliferation essential foundations for nuclear energy's future.

Is There a New U.S. Policy for Pakistan?

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:00:20 -0500

"How much will the War on Terror define the new President’s agenda towards Pakistan, as it has President Bush’s? What will this mean for America’s broader policy toward the country, and what are the implications, if any, for India?"

U.S. Worry Grows over Pakistan's Tribal Peace Deal

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:34:47 -0500

May 6, 2008

Jackie Northam of NPR interviews Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, regarding the new Pakistani government's negotiations with militants tied to al Qaeda.

Should and Can the FMCT Be Effectively Verified?

Hui Zhang — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:16:37 -0500

Hui Zhang argues that an effective universal Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) would make an important contribution to nuclear disarmament, the nonproliferation regime, and the prevention of nuclear terrorism. However, such a FMCT must have a credible verification regime. Dr. Zhang suggests that it should be technically feasible to establish an effectively verifiable FMCT at a reasonable cost, while protecting national security secrets.

Actions Now for the Day After: Findings of the Preventive Defense Day After Project

Dr. Ashton B. Carter — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:56:55 -0500

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter testifies before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

PDP Co-Director Carter testifies before Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Tue, 15 Apr 2008 14:17:09 -0500

PDP Co-Director Dr. Ashton B. Carter testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs at its hearing on "Nuclear Terrorism: Confronting the Challenges of the Day After."

The Risk Of Nuclear Terrorism — And Next Steps To Reduce The Danger

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 12:20:43 -0500

Dr. Bunn’s testimony to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs of the United States Senate urges a global campaign to ensure that every nuclear weapon and every cache of potential nuclear bomb material worldwide is secured against the kinds of threats terrorists and criminals have demonstrated they can pose. Bunn highlights the good and bad news about the risk of nuclear terrorism, and assesses the probability of a nuclear terrorist attack. Bunn then proposes several steps to reduce the risk of a nuclear terrorist attack

Expanding Nuclear Energy, Preventing Nuclear Terrorism

Matthew Bunn — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 16:28:03 -0500

March 13, 2008

Matthew Bunn presented "Expanding Nuclear Energy, Preventing Nuclear Terrorism" to the Energy & Security Search Seminar on March 13, 2008.

New Iran IAEA Report: Reading Between the Lines

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 08:08:14 -0600

February 28, 2008

With the International Atomic Energy Agency scheduled to release its much-anticipated report on Iran within the next few days, Graham Allison offers his insight and analysis — as well as questions that remain unanswered.

Toward a Nuclear-Free World

Dr. William J. Perry, George P. Shultz, Henry A. Kissinger and Senator Sam Nunn — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 16:02:36 -0600

January 15, 2008

George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn authored an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal, identifying a series of steps needed to pull the world "back from the nuclear precipice." Belfer Center Director Graham Allison, Co-Director of the Preventive Defense Project Ashton P. Carter, and Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn attended the conference at Stanford University's Hoover Institution that developed these steps, and endorsed the Op-Ed.

Nuclear Terrorism Discussed in New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Debate

Graham Allison — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 14:48:21 -0600

January 8, 2008

During the Democratic presidential debate at St. Anselm College in Manchester, N.H. on Saturday (January 5), moderator Charles Gibson of ABC News mentioned Belfer Center Director Graham Allison in a question to candidates regarding nuclear terrorism. He also referred to Senator Sam Nunn's comments on a potential nuclear attack. Read Gibson's comments and questions, along with the candidates' responses.

Pakistan: What About the Nukes?

Graham Allison — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 14:48:21 -0600

December 28, 2007

The assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto reminds us starkly of an unanswered question most of us would prefer to forget: how secure are Pakistan's nuclear weapons? Could Al Qaeda or another terrorist group acquire a warhead or enough radioactive material to create a dirty bomb?

A Nuclear Site Is Breached

Micah Zenko — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 09:39:44 -0600

"...nuclear terrorism is a global issue, extending far beyond the familiar policy talking points of U.S. cooperation with Russia over its nuclear stockpiles, the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in the face of threats from Islamic extremists, and concerns that if Iran acquires nuclear capabilities it could provide a bomb to sympathetic terrorist organizations....the essential ingredients required for making a nuclear weapon exist in more than 40 countries, in facilities with differing levels of security. Unfortunately, there are still no binding global standards on how to secure nuclear weapons and weapons-grade nuclear material."

Matthew Bunn Wins 2007 Hans Bethe Award

Matthew Bunn — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Matthew Bunn was awarded the Hans Bethe Award for science in service of a more secure world from the Federation of American Scientists, on December 3, 2007 in Washington D.C.

Global Fissile Materials Report 2007

Mon, 01 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Over the past six decades, our understanding of the nuclear danger has expanded from the threat posed by the vast nuclear arsenals created by the superpowers in the Cold War to encompass the proliferation
of nuclear weapons to additional states and now also to terrorist groups. To reduce this danger, it is essential to secure and to sharply reduce all stocks of highly enriched uranium and separated plutonium, the key materials in nuclear weapons, and to limit any further production.

The mission of the IPFM is to advance the technical basis for cooperative international policy initiatives to achieve these goals.

Bombs We Can Stop

Matthew Bunn — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"William Langewiesche has the reputation of being one of America's best investigative reporters. Unfortunately, he has written a very bad book on nuclear proliferation." Matthew Bunn reviews The Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor, by William Langewiesche.

Securing the Bomb 2007

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn provides a comprehensive assessment of efforts to secure and remove vulnerable nuclear stockpiles around the world, and a detailed action plan for reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. Securing the Bomb 2007 was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The full report, with additional information on the threat of nuclear terrorism, is available on the NTI website.

Nuclear Terrorism FAQ

Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The Nuclear Threat Initiative and project on Managing the Atom answer 21 of the most frequently asked questions about nuclear terrorism.

Thwarting Terrorists: More to Be Done

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"...much progress has been made toward upgrading security for nuclear stockpiles. The bad news is that the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons exist in hundreds of buildings in more than 40 countries, and terrorists are actively trying to get a nuclear bomb or the materials to make one."

The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City

Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Dr. William J. Perry and Dr. Michael M. May — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Failure to develop a comprehensive contingency plan, such as the one proposed here, and inform the American public, where appropriate, about its particulars will only serve to amplify the devastating impact of any nuclear attack on a U.S. city

Pakistan: Instability Raises Nuclear Security Concerns

Hassan Abbas — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Managing the Atom Fellow Hassan Abbas provides analysis of Pakistan’s nuclear command and control systems and the security of its nuclear program in the aftermath of the recent test-firing of a nuclear-capable missile and terrorist attack.

North Korea’s Oct. 9 Nuclear Test: Successful or Failed?

Hui Zhang — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

In this paper, Zhang examined if the test was successful. Based on a technical analysis, Zhang concluded that: whether North Korea’s Oct.9 nuclear test was successful or failed would be dependent on North Korea’s designed yield. If North Korea planned a yield of 4 kt (as told to China), it would be not a failed test. It could show that North Korea already had confidence to explode a nuclear device and pursued a much more compact warhead for its missiles. Thus, it is urgent to negotiate for dismantling North Korean nuclear and long-range missile programs.

Reducing Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Threats

Matthew Bunn and Tom Bielefeld — Thu, 12 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Urgent actions are needed to prevent a nuclear or radiological 9/11. Terrorists are actively seeking nuclear weapons and Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDDs) and the materials to make them. There are scores of sites where the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons exist, in dozens of countries worldwide. There are thousands of sites worldwide where radiological materials exist. Many of these sites are not sufficiently secured to defeat the kinds of threats that terrorists and criminals have demonstrated they can pose. A dangerous gap remains between the urgency of the threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism and the scope and pace of the U.S. and world response. While the gap has narrowed significantly in recent years, much more needs to be done. This paper describes the nuclear and radiological terrorism threats, analyzes the actions taken so far to address these threats, and recommends further actions going forward.

Fast Action Needed to Avert Nuclear Terror Strike on U.S.

Graham Allison — Mon, 02 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Before 9/11, most Americans found the idea that international terrorists could mount an attack on their homeland and kill thousands of innocent citizens not merely unlikely but inconceivable. After nearly six years without a second attack on U.S. soil, some skeptics suggest that 9/11 was a 100-year flood. The view that terrorists are preparing even more deadly assaults seems as far-fetched to them as the possibility of terrorists crashing passenger jets into the World Trade Center did before that fateful Tuesday morning in 2001. And yet the danger of a nuclear attack by terrorists is not only very real but disturbingly likely.

Correspondence: Does Terrorism Ever Work? The 2004 Madrid Train Bombings

William Rose, Rysia Murphy and Max Abrahms — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

William Rose and Rysia Murphy reply to Max Abrahms's fall 2006 International Security article, "Why Terrorism Does Not Work."

Trafficking and the Role of the Sinai Bedouin

Joshua Gleis — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

June 21, 2007

After the Bomb

Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Dr. William J. Perry and Dr. Michael M. May — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

June 12, 2007

Ashton B. Carter, William J. Perry, and Michael May call on the United States government to formulate contingency plans that may save thousands of lives and billions of dollars, prevent panic and promote recovery should a nuclear weapon go off in an American city.

The Day After: Action in the 24 Hours Following a Nuclear Blast in an American City

Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Dr. William J. Perry and Dr. Michael M. May — Thu, 31 May 2007 00:00:00 -0500

May 31, 2007

The Preventive Defense Project convened a workshop of leading federal government civilian and military officials, scientists, policy experts, and journalists in Washington, D.C. to address "The Day After: Action in the 24 Hours Following a Nuclear Blast in an American City."

The Irrelevance of the Middle East

Philip Auerswald — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 00:00:00 -0500