Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Oil, oil politics

International Council Members Debate Critical Issues

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:16:43 -0500

The Belfer Center launched its annual International Council meeting on April 9 with animated discussions of, among others, U.S. energy politics, the links between economic policy and national security, cybersecurity, and the rise of China. Participants included members of the Center's International Council and Board of Directors as well as faculty and senior fellows.

Conference Spotlights Saudi Arabia’s Role in the Middle East

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:14:29 -0500

Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki Al Faisal told a standing-room only audience at Harvard Kennedy School in April that his nation is investing huge sums in solar, wind, and nuclear energy to reduce domestic reliance on its oil reserves. Prince Turki said Saudi Arabia’s security depends on a healthy energy policy that uses oil to earn export revenues rather than for domestic consumption.

Obama’s Dilemma: The Keystone XL Pipeline Decision

Zahra Hirji — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 14:17:21 -0500

April 30, 2013

David Keith, Michael Levi, and Elana Schor discussed how the media influence public debate on the Keystone XL decision during a special seminar sponsored by the Environment and Natural Resources Program.

Energy and the Arab Awakening: A View from Riyadh

Tue, 30 Apr 2013 08:33:15 -0500

April 30, 2013

The Middle East Initiative and Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs hosted distinguished scholars and energy experts from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for a panel discussion on Thursday, April 25. The panelists included Dr. Mohammed Al Sabban, Professor, King Abdulaziz University, former advisor to Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources; Mr. Ali Al Shihabi, Founder, Rasmala Investment Bank; and Mr. Abdulaziz al Fahad, Principal of Abdulaziz al Fahad Law Firm.

Natural Gas Development in Kurdistan: A Financial Assessment

Stephen A. Elliott and Louis B. Beryl — Fri, 22 Feb 2013 10:53:04 -0600

This report summarizes the context of natural gas development in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (Kurdistan), assesses the major risk factors and opportunities, and presents a financial model for natural gas development projects.

More than One Way to Skin a Policy

Andrew Facini — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 17:00:28 -0600

Washington Post national environment reporter Juliet Eilperin spoke on the political difficulties of pursuing environmental policy in a seminar titled "Covering Environmental Controversies in a Political Environment" at the Harvard Kennedy School.

'Energy Independence' Alone Won't Boost U.S. Power

Meghan L. O'Sullivan — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 11:22:00 -0600

“We are finally poised to control our own energy future,” said President Barack Obama in his State of the Union message, noting the drastic increase in American energy production from unconventional oil and gas resources.

Controlling our energy future means more than just producing a greater amount of our own energy. It also means harnessing this energy renaissance to meet our global geopolitical needs. We’ve begun to reap the many economic benefits this boom brings—such as easing the trade deficit and lowering carbon emissions. But we have only started to appreciate how this energy renaissance affects our larger strategic environment. And, not surprisingly, many readers of the tea leaves have confused reality with desire, by hoping more energy at home will mean keeping out of the volatile politics and economics of the Middle East.

Shell's Arctic Troubles Only Buy Time

Juliette Kayyem — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 08:31:03 -0600

"...[T]o believe that the market will maintain its current risk assessment forever is to believe in the power of magical thinking. The economic and political stakes are overwhelmingly in favor of drilling. The White House is pushing for domestic sources of energy. Alaska's elected and tribal leadership will gain much from taxes on new economic activity. And our foreign competitors near the Arctic circle — including Russia, which sent an oil tanker through the Arctic during in December — are ready to plunge into the cold."

Belfer Center Newsletter Winter 2012-2013

Sharon Wilke — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 07:22:36 -0600

The Winter 2012-13 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights the Belfer Center’s commemoration of the 50^th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis. In addition to the background on those 13 days in 1962 when the world was on the brink of nuclear war, the Center focuses on the decision-making that averted a nuclear catastrophe and the lessons from that event for leaders of today. We include winners and winning entries from our “Best Cuban Missile Crisis Lessons” contest, co-sponsored with Foreign Policy magazine.

On Tap at Belfer Center: Oil and Water

Mon, 03 Dec 2012 07:14:23 -0600

Leonardo Maugeri writes that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020—possibly prompting a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices.

The IEA's Poor Performance and the Risks of an Era of Oil Abundance

Leonardo Maugeri — Tue, 20 Nov 2012 08:30:40 -0600

"Although quite late, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has noticed that American crude oil production is increasing at an unprecedented rate, and that it will continue to do so. In a report published only one year ago, the Agency had largely underestimated the phenomenon, as had many others....In its new World Energy Outlook 2012, the IEA now expects that the US will produce 11.1 million barrels per day....But the IEA numbers suffer from more than tardiness," writes Leonardo Maugeri, a former senior executive at Eni and current fellow with the Belfer Center's Geopolitics of Energy Project

The Coming Oil Glut

Leonardo Maugeri — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 15:13:37 -0600

November 6, 2012

"The price of oil continues to be set by fear, not by supply and demand," writes Leonard Maugeri. "World-wide oil production is growing quickly. By the end of the year, it will probably surpass 92 million barrels per day, with additional spare capacity of more than 3.5 million barrels. Thanks to the shale oil revolution, U.S. crude production could exceed 6.5 million barrels per day by the end of the year: around one million more barrels than the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted in January."

The Geopolitics of Natural Gas

Amy Myers Jaffe and Meghan L. O'Sullivan — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 13:39:13 -0500

Some of the most dramatic energy developments of recent years have been in the realm of natural gas. Huge quantities of unconventional US shale gas are now commercially viable, changing the strategic picture for the United States by making it self-sufficient in natural gas for the foreseeable future. This development alone has reverberated around the globe, causing shifts in patterns of trade and leading other countries in Europe and Asia to explore their own shale gas potential. Such developments are putting pressure on longstanding arrangements, such as oil-linked gas contracts and the separate nature of North American, European, and Asian gas markets, and may lead to strategic shifts, such as the weakening of Russia’s dominance in the European gas market.

Mexican Oil Reforms Are Vital on Both Sides of the Border

Meghan L. O'Sullivan — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 11:25:30 -0500

In recent days a coalition of Mexican advocacy groups has been protesting in front of Televisa, the country’s largest TV network, to contest the legitimacy of President-elect Enrique Pena Nieto’s July 1 victory.

Will Iran Crack?

Meghan L. O'Sullivan — Wed, 11 Jul 2012 09:30:30 -0500

The latest Iran sanctions came into full effect this week, adding to a byzantine array of unilateral and multilateral measures that prohibit Iranian oil imports, other trade and financial transactions, and freeze Iranian assets by countries concerned that Tehran's nuclear program is intended for military purposes, not civilian ones.

North American Oil and Gas Reserves: Prospects and Policy

Jonathan Bailey and Henry Lee — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 13:46:09 -0500

Expanding estimates of North America’s supply of accessible shale gas, and more recently, shale oil, have been trumpeted in many circles as the most significant energy resource development since the oil boom in Texas in the late 1920s. How large are these resources? What challenges will need to be overcome if their potential is to be realized? How will they impact U.S. energy policy?

To address these questions, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and two of its programs ― the Environment and Natural Resources Program and the Geopolitics of Energy Project ― convened a group of experts from business, government, and academia on May 1, 2012, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The following report summarizes the major issues discussed at this workshop. Since the discussions were off-the-record, no comments are attributed to any individual. Rather, this report attempts to summarize the arguments on all sides of the issues.

Global Oil Production is Surging: Implications for Prices, Geopolitics, and the Environment

Leonardo Maugeri — Mon, 25 Jun 2012 11:12:21 -0500

A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who is now a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s major oil formations and exploration projects.

New study by Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity, and risk of price collapse

James F. Smith — Fri, 22 Jun 2012 10:41:25 -0500

A new study by Belfer Center fellow Leonardo Maugeri shows that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who is now a fellow in the Geopolitics of Energy Project in the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s major oil formations and exploration projects.

The Pentagon is Stopped from Going Green

Juliette Kayyem — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 16:59:33 -0500

"Fuel convoys are particularly subject to attack by hostile forces, and half of the Marines killed in Afghanistan and Iraq were supporting fuel transportation. Oil and water are the two commodities we import the most to the battlefield; the long line of a supply chain is a welcome mat for every IED and enemy. The biggest cost driver in the Pentagon's shrinking budget is oil; fuel increases in 2011 and 2012 cost the government an extra $3 billion."

Oil Development in China: Current Status and Future Trends

Linwei Ma, Feng Fu, Zheng Li and Pei Liu — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 18:13:47 -0500

This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China's oil development through system analysis. The authors design three scenarios of China's oil demand in 2030 and analyze policy implications for oil conservation, automotive energy development, and energy security. From their analysis, they draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as controlling total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, enhancing oil conservation in all sectors with the emphasis on road transportation, and increasing investment in oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions.

Oil: The Next Revolution

Leonardo Maugeri — Thu, 31 May 2012 10:11:45 -0500

Under Melting Ice, a Jackpot

Juliette Kayyem — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 18:54:08 -0500

"Assuming Shell finds oil this summer, it will be the polar version of the California gold rush. More people means more permanent housing, a bigger police presence, a new runway at the already stretched airport where two guys still throw luggage from the cargo bay into the airport lobby, an expanded Coast Guard facility, greater fiber-optic capacity. And maybe, hopefully, a road to somewhere, perhaps Fairbanks."

The Unnoticed Oil Revolution

Leonardo Maugeri — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 13:02:30 -0600

How booming investments, new technologies, new oil frontiers, and ongoing production development may set a surprising paradigm-shift in the energy world

Justin Dargin speaks about energy output in Kuwait

Justin Dargin — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 16:05:57 -0600

December 6, 2011

Justin Dargin speaks with industry periodical Natural Gas Daily about energy output, both oil and gas, in Kuwait. The article focuses on the disappointing oil exports of the nation, but also about the potential for gas production in the region.

Justin Dargin talks about energy in Qatar with Interfax

Justin Dargin — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 15:06:41 -0600

November 21, 2011

Justin Dargin, Dubai Initiative Associate, speaks with Interfax Energy Services about Qatar's new Minister of Energy and Industry and domestic long-term natural gas production and consumption.

Justin Dargin Interviews with AMEinfo.com (Arabic)

Justin Dargin — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 08:37:55 -0500

Dubai Initiative Associate Justin Dargin speaks with AMEinfo.com, the Middle East's business and finance news resource, in an interview on how the current Eurozone crisis will influence the global energy sector.

We May Never Know Leaders' Responsibility in Gulf Disaster

Ben Heineman — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 09:30:35 -0500

As one of the most serious industrial accidents in history, the Gulf explosion should be a great case study for corporate leaders across the globe who are trying to manage risk in hazardous activities involving complex technology. Put simply, how did the directors, CEOs, top staff leaders and top business leaders at the companies involved — BP (owner of the Macondo Well), Transocean (rig owner), Haliburton (construction services), Cameron (manufacturer of the blow-out preventer) and other subcontractors — fail in establishing safety management, safety processes and safety cultures which would have prevented the accident or which would have led to more effective crisis response.

Qatar Trades Support of Libyan Revolution for Oil and Gas

Justin Dargin — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 10:46:21 -0500

Dubai Initiative Associate Justin Dargin is quoted in AMEinfo.com, the Middle East's business and finance news resource, in an article about how Qatar's early support of the Libyan revolution has led to increased influence in the Libyan energy sector.

Iraqi Politics And Implications For Oil And Energy

Meghan L. O'Sullivan — Sun, 31 Jul 2011 09:05:39 -0500

Iraq could be poised for a dramatic transformation in which it finally escapes the political and technical constraints that have kept it producing less than 4 percent of the world’s oil, writes Meghan L. O'Sullivan. Should Iraq meet its ambitions to bring nearly 10 million more barrels of oil on line by 2017, it would constitute the largest ever capacity increase in the history of the oil industry. Even half this much would represent a massive achievement.

Will Electric Cars Transform the U.S. Vehicle Market?

Henry Lee and Grant Lovellette — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 13:15:31 -0500

For the past forty years, United States Presidents have repeatedly called for a reduction in the country's dependence on fossil fuels in general and foreign oil specifically. Some officials advocate the electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet as a path to meeting this goal. The Obama administration has embraced a goal of having one million electric-powered vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015, while others proposed a medium-term goal where electric vehicles would consist of 20% of the passenger vehicle fleet by 2030 — approximately 30 million electric vehicles. The technology itself is not in question; many of the global automobile companies are planning to sell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and/or battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2012. The key question is, will Americans buy them?