Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Pakistan

Bargaining Away Justice: India, Pakistan, and the International Politics of Impunity for the Bangladesh Genocide

Gary Bass — Mon, 14 Nov 2016 16:07:59 -0600

During the 1971 Bangladesh war for independence from Pakistan, the Pakistan army carried out a genocide that killed hundreds of thousands of Bengalis in what was then East Pakistan. The perpetrators never faced trial. Archival documents reveal how India and Bangladesh sacrificed the opportunity for war crimes trials to gain Pakistan’s agreement on key security goals—the Simla peace agreement and recognition of Bangladesh’s independence. The legacy of this decision continues to blight Bangladesh’s politics.

Managing Risk in an Unstable World

Nicholas Burns — Fri, 11 Nov 2016 15:27:57 -0600

November 11, 2016

Dr. Ian Bremmer, expert in political risk and founder of the Eurasia Group, gave a seminar sponsored by the the Future of Diplomacy Project on Thursday, November 9 at the Harvard Kennedy School, titled “Managing Risk in an Unstable World."

No, Most Indian-Americans Do Not Support Donald Trump

Ronak D. Desai — Fri, 21 Oct 2016 15:12:56 -0500

October 21, 2016

While the Hindu American Association held a rally for Donald Trump last week, supporters of Trump are a small minority within the Indian-American community. In this article for Forbes, Ronak Desai sets the record straight.

Putting the Populist Revolt in Its Place

Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 06 Oct 2016 15:39:42 -0500

In many Western democracies, this is a year of revolt against elites. The success of the Brexit campaign in Britain, Donald Trump’s unexpected capture of the Republican Party in the United States, and populist parties’ success in Germany and elsewhere strike many as heralding the end of an era. As Financial Times columnist Philip Stephens put it, “the present global order – the liberal rules-based system established in 1945 and expanded after the end of the Cold War – is under unprecedented strain. Globalization is in retreat.”

In fact, it may be premature to draw such broad conclusions.

Some economists attribute the current surge of populism to the “hyper-globalization” of the 1990s, with liberalization of international financial flows and the creation of the World Trade Organization – and particularly China’s WTO accession in 2001 – receiving the most attention. According to one study, Chinese imports eliminated nearly one million US manufacturing jobs from 1999 to 2011; including suppliers and related industries brings the losses to 2.4 million.

Two Years Later, Modi Remains Hugely Popular In India

Ronak D. Desai — Fri, 23 Sep 2016 11:00:32 -0500

September 23, 2016

India and South Asia Project Affiliate Ronak Desai investigates the reasons for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's consistent popularity after two years in office.

Foreign Cooperation and Proliferation in South Asia

Jayita Sarkar — Wed, 20 Jul 2016 12:17:40 -0500

"Nuclear South Asia: An Analyst's Guide to India, Pakistan, and the Bomb" is a free, open online course from the Stimson Center that addresses nuclear themes and challenges in South Asia. It is meant to provide strategic analysts in India and Pakistan—and the interested public in all countries—a platform to study these issues and engage in a serious, informed conversation. MTA Associate Jayita Sarkar delivered Section 2's Lecture 3.

The Islamic State has made a big mistake

David Ignatius — Thu, 07 Jul 2016 11:26:31 -0500

In the global revulsion at the recent terror attacks in four Muslim countries, the United States and its allies have a new opportunity to build a unified command against the Islamic State and other extremists. FDP Senior Fellow David Ignatius examines the diplomatic relationships needed to create an effective counterterrorism strategy.

Nuclear Debates in Asia

Hui Zhang — Fri, 01 Jul 2016 15:48:13 -0500

This important book analyzes nuclear weapon and energy policies in Asia, a region at risk for high-stakes military competition, conflict, and terrorism. The contributors explore the trajectory of debates over nuclear energy, security, and nonproliferation in key countries—China, India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and other states in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

China: Evolving Attitudes on Nuclear Affairs

Hui Zhang — Fri, 01 Jul 2016 15:45:38 -0500

Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Their Impact on Stability

Mansoor Ahmed — Thu, 30 Jun 2016 13:22:05 -0500

The flight-testing of the 60-kilometer (or 37-mile) Hatf-IX, or Nasr, ballistic missile in April 2011 has renewed controversy and debate about strategic stability and nuclear weapons in South Asia. Official statements issued by Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations Directorate (ISPR) claim that the Nasr was developed “to add deterrence value to Pakistan’s Strategic Weapons Development programme at shorter ranges.” The Nasr could carry “nuclear warheads of appropriate yield with high accuracy,” and had shoot-and-scoot attributes—essentially a “quick response system” that addressed “the need to deter evolving threats.”

51 U.S. Diplomats Criticized U.S. Policy on Syria. Will Their Dissent Make a Difference?

Amanda J. Rothschild — Fri, 24 Jun 2016 13:08:50 -0500

"The large number of signatories on the dissenting memo is truly historic, but what's equally significant is that these diplomats have now joined a long line of government dissidents during cases of mass atrocity. These 51 names, as yet unknown, undoubtedly will someday rank alongside Henry Morgenthau Jr., Archer Blood and Marshall Harris, 20th century U.S. government officials who took a stand against U.S. policy in response to mass killings abroad."

In Non-proliferation We Trust, India Must Wait

Mansoor Ahmed — Tue, 21 Jun 2016 12:57:04 -0500

"In a complete volte-face the nuclear supplier states that created the NSG (then the London Group) in 1975 due to proliferation concerns raised by India's perfidy are contemplating its inclusion. Paradoxically, that sounds like a death knell of the NSG and the non-proliferation regime."

Why Prime Minister Modi Called On Congress

Ronak D. Desai — Mon, 13 Jun 2016 13:00:59 -0500

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Washington last week, making his fourth trip to the United States since taking office just two years ago. India and South Asia Program Fellow, Ronak Desai examines the strategic approach to India's relations with the United States.

SOUTH ASIA WEEK: U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Mon, 09 May 2016 22:08:48 -0500

May 9, 2016

In an off-the-record discussion as part of the Project's annual South Asia Week, Ambassador Richard Olson, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, delivered a frank assessment of U.S. long-term strategy in the region.

Photo Gallery: 2016 South Asia Week

Mon, 09 May 2016 20:53:50 -0500

May 9, 2016

From April 25 to April 29, The Future of Diplomacy Project and India and South Asia Project hosted the annual South Asia Week with influential practitioners of diplomacy from Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and the U.S. invited to discuss prevailing issues affecting the region.

Battling over Pakistan’s Battlefield Nuclear Weapons

Christopher Clary, Gaurav Kampani and Jaganath Sankaran — Tue, 03 May 2016 16:51:39 -0500

Christopher Clary and Gaurav Kampani respond to Jaganath Sankaran's winter 2015/16 article, "Pakistan's Battlefield Nuclear Policy: A Risky Solution to an Exaggerated Threat."

Pakistan, MIRVs, and Counterforce Targeting

Mansoor Ahmed and Faroz H. Khan — Sat, 30 Apr 2016 12:40:47 -0500

"Strategic competition between Pakistan and India is intensifying. Both countries have now entered into a phase of modernization and expansion of their respective strategic forces, reflecting significant investments in strategic programs. Their fissile material production capacities have grown substantially and they have inducted a plethora of new delivery systems. Both are in the process of fielding nuclear triads. Technological advancements are underway in: modern combat aircraft and air defense capabilities; cruise and ballistic missiles; sea-based deterrents; tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs); ballistic missile defense (BMD); and multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). India and Pakistan now possess more new types of nuclear weapon delivery vehicles than the United States..."

Conversations in Diplomacy: Ambassador Syed Akbaruddin

Thu, 28 Apr 2016 14:46:28 -0500

April 28, 2016

In this installment of “Conversations in Diplomacy," the Future of Diplomacy Project's Executive Director, Cathryn Clüver, speaks with Ambassador Syed Akbaruddin,India's Permanent Representative to the United Nations.

SOUTH ASIA WEEK: Pakistan's Role in Regional Stability

Mon, 25 Apr 2016 12:30:38 -0500

April 25, 2016

As part of the India and South Asia Program’s annual speaker series, Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi, the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the United Nations discussed her country’s regional agenda.

Conversations in Diplomacy: Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi

Mon, 25 Apr 2016 11:12:16 -0500

April 25, 2016

Maleeha Lodhi, In this installment of “Conversations in Diplomacy," the Future of Diplomacy Project's Executive Director, Cathryn Clüver, speaks with Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's Permanent Representative to the United Nations.

What Lifting Iran Sanctions Means For India

Ronak D. Desai — Thu, 28 Jan 2016 14:35:19 -0600

The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog has certified Tehran’s compliance with the terms of a nuclear accord the United States, Iran and other world powers reached in April 2015. The historic agreement is aimed at curtailing Iran’s controversial nuclear program, and paves the way for longstanding sanctions against Tehran to be lifted. Sanctions targeting Iran, and particularly its lucrative energy sector, have crippled the country economically and isolated it diplomatically.

Ronak Desai examines what the lifting of Iran sanctions mean for India.

More evidence on how not to fight ISIS

Rami Khouri — Sat, 05 Dec 2015 09:28:28 -0600

"Two important new reports in the United States this week clarify the difficulties involved in defeating ISIS or at least reducing its impact around the world. The first is a study by the Program on Extremism at George Washington University that analyzes the range of individuals who were involved in legal action against them, showing that there is no single profile of a typical ISIS recruit. Rather, the very wide range of people who explore ISIS and similar ideologies suggests that no single strategy — like social media counter-narratives or more public activism by “moderate” Muslims — will succeed in reducing this threat..."

Roundtable on Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington And Its Cold War Rivals by Or Rabinowitz

Francis Gavin, Gaurav Kampani, Jayita Sarkar and Or Rabinowitz — Mon, 16 Nov 2015 18:53:35 -0600

"In Bargaining on Nuclear Tests the historian Or Rabinowitz demonstrates the rare ability to engage with contemporary policy debates on nuclear proliferation and U.S. nonproliferation strategies on the one hand, and successfully utilize qualitative analytical frameworks in social science like prospect theory (19) on the other."

The U.S. cannot afford to forget Afghanistan and Pakistan

David Ignatius — Fri, 30 Oct 2015 11:57:14 -0500

Last weekend’s deadly attack on an international hospital in Afghanistan was a reminder of the terrible war that grinds on there, with Afghan civilians caught in the crossfire.

The Bin Laden Raid: How Could the Pakistanis Have Been Cut In?

Charles G. Cogan — Wed, 21 Oct 2015 18:37:11 -0500

"The recent New York Times Magazine article on the 'mysteries' remaining about the bin Laden raid offers no clear conclusions. But it does usefully point out that there could be a difference between the Pakistanis being aware that bin Laden was living in Abbottabad, and not being informed of the impending attack against him."

Keeping the Bombs in the Basement: U.S. Nonproliferation Policy toward Israel, South Africa, and Pakistan

Or Rabinowitz and Nicholas L. Miller — Mon, 27 Jul 2015 17:23:26 -0500

Many accounts suggest that the United States did little to prevent Israel, Pakistan, and South Africa from developing nuclear weapons. These accounts are flawed, however. The United States did attempt to stop all three countries from acquiring the bomb and, when those efforts failed, to halt additional proliferation measures such as further testing and weaponization.

Do Nuclear Weapons Affect the Guns-butter Trade-off? Evidence on Nuclear Substitution from Pakistan and Beyond

Ahsan I. Butt — Tue, 30 Jun 2015 15:51:41 -0500

Scholars have argued that acquiring nuclear weapons should allow states the luxury of exiting conventional arms races. In turn, a decreased budgetary focus on conventional arms should make possible greater spending on social welfare. The author contests this logic of nuclear substitution by examining its most likely exponent, Pakistan. As a poor, underdeveloped state, a nuclear Pakistan should have welcomed the opportunity to cease its arms race with India, and spend greater sums on its population's welfare. Instead, the article shows that Pakistan has doubled down on its pre-nuclear conventional posture, mainly because of its revisionism over Kashmir.

Engage Muslim Millennials

Farah Pandith — Sat, 13 Jun 2015 12:27:52 -0500

Farah Pandith, a Senior Fellow at the Future of Diplomacy Project, provides her answer to the question "What should the U.S. do about ISIS?" in this piece for National Journal.

How the Drone Age Came to Pakistan

Charles G. Cogan — Tue, 02 Jun 2015 10:35:39 -0500

"In the 1950's the CIA, developer of the U-2 spy plane, carried out reconnaissance flights over the Soviet Union, starting from the Pakistani military base in Peshawar. The ISI, the intelligence service of the all-powerful Pakistani Army, was assigned to coordinate these flights with CIA personnel in Pakistan. Thus began the longstanding relationship between the CIA, a civilian intelligence service, and the ISI, a military intelligence service, a relationship that lasted all through the years...."

Prime Minister Modi's First Year In Office: A Report Card

Ronak D. Desai — Tue, 26 May 2015 19:58:26 -0500

In 2014, Narendra Modi was sworn-in as India’s new prime minister. He and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept into power following their crushing electoral victory over the incumbent Congress Party-led government. Mr. Modi campaigned on a message of bringing wholesale change to the world’s largest democracy and improving the lives of its 1.3 billion citizens. The message resonated with the country’s immense electorate, which conferred upon him an unprecedented mandate to deliver on his promises. Raising expectations both at home and abroad, Mr. Modi confidently declared achhe din, or good days, were on the horizon.

This article, one year later, asks whether the prime minister’s assured rhetoric matches his record so far. In this piece, Ronak Desai gives us a brief report card of Mr. Modi’s progress at the year marker.