Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Pakistan

Après Musharraf, Patience

Hassan Abbas — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 13:37:18 -0500

"...The notion that somehow developing countries, and especially Muslim-majority states, cannot adjust to democratic model is a flawed assessment. The track record of democratic governments in Pakistan is indeed mixed, but it is also true that democracy takes time to develop....Western governments, primarily the United States and Britain, have shown far more patience with dictators than with elected leaders. Periods of military rule in Pakistan — 1958–69; 1977–88; 1999–2008 — lasted an average of 10 years, while democratic phases lasted an average of less than three years and were often declared to be unstable, corrupt and weak. Foreign aid also declined during the democratic periods...."

Musharraf Exit May Affect U.S. Plans

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 00:00:48 -0500

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed for National Public Radio's All Things Considered on the impact of Musharraf's resignation for U.S. foreign policy.

Solving FATA

Hassan Abbas — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:21:27 -0500

"The growing Taliban insurgency in the Afghan-Pakistan border area increasingly threatens the geography of the region. Continuation of this crisis could derail the India-Pakistan peace process, undermine democratic gains in Pakistan as well as Afghanistan, and jeopardize U.S. interests in the region.

Despite the explosive nature of the crisis and apparent consensus between the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees about the need for additional focus on the area—as well as military forces there—the popular analysis of the situation often fails to appreciate the very basic facts of the issue...."

Musharraf's Long Goodbye

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 11:43:04 -0500

"...Any attempt by Musharraf to dislodge the government by using his constitutional authority would trigger another election, the results of which would not be much different from the vote in February. It is time for Musharraf's friends in the west to press him to serve his country one last time, by avoiding confrontation with his country's democratic forces and calling it quits."

Pakistan needs strong judiciary for stability

Beth Maclin — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 15:03:22 -0500

Pakistan's Supreme Court Bar President Aitzaz Ahsan discussed what is needed to fix the country’s dire judicial situation at a seminar hosted by the Project on Managing the Atom and the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Pakistan Needs More Democracy to Transcend Musharraf

Hassan Abbas — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:17:05 -0500

"Following its recent free elections, Pakistan is rebounding politically. But the euphoria that came with the end of the Musharraf era is wearing off, as the new government faces stark choices. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy is not new to the 60-year-old state, but ethnic cleavages, weak institutions, and religious extremism in the North are perennially destabilizing. And, while the new government settles in and establishes its priorities, the West, especially the United States, must reassess the impact of its past dealings with Pakistan...."

The Path through Pakistan to a Shorter War on Terror

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:00:04 -0500

In the 'epicenter of terrorism,' democracy will benefit from an ease in US military pressure.

Attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan Highlight Instability

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:00:42 -0500

June 9, 2008

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed for The News Hour with Jim Lehrer on June 9, 2008 regarding instability along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Is There a New U.S. Policy for Pakistan?

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:00:20 -0500

"How much will the War on Terror define the new President’s agenda towards Pakistan, as it has President Bush’s? What will this mean for America’s broader policy toward the country, and what are the implications, if any, for India?"

U.S. Worry Grows over Pakistan's Tribal Peace Deal

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:34:47 -0500

May 6, 2008

Jackie Northam of NPR interviews Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, regarding the new Pakistani government's negotiations with militants tied to al Qaeda.

South Asia, A New Center of Democracy?

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 00:00:06 -0500

Thus far this year we’ve seen elections in Pakistan, Bhutan, and Nepal. Elections have been promised in Bangladesh and the Maldives later this year, and scheduled in India and Afghanistan for next year. Yet, barring India, we rarely think of these nations as democracies. Could this then be the next wave?

No Sign until the Burst of Fire: Understanding the Pakistan-Afghanistan Frontier

Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason — Fri, 02 May 2008 11:28:42 -0500

The portion of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area dominated by Pashtun tribes poses the greatest challenge to U.S. national security interests. Here, extremist groups such as the Taliban and al-Qaida continue to enjoy safe haven. The Pashtun, whose tribal structures have been subverted since the 1970s, represent a unique cultural challenge that the U.S. foreign policy establishment has failed to appreciate. To reverse the trend of radicalization in this area, the United States and the Afghan government must strengthen and rebuild the Pashtuns’ tribal structures while reducing the external pressures on them. Maintaining the current policy of extending the central government into this region will only foment insurgency among a proto-insurgent people.

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Pakistan PM Has Good Credentials, Limited Authority

Hassan Abbas — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 12:00:38 -0500

"Gilani is leader of a coalition government with a strong mandate but facing difficult problems. It is also committed to policies that could cause turbulence, particularly reinstating judges deposed by President Pervez Musharraf. Gilani's position is further complicated by political circumstances, with the leaders of the dominant parties in the ruling coalition directing policy from outside parliament."

Reform of Pakistan's Intelligence Services

Hassan Abbas — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 19:37:37 -0500

"The primary mission of intelligence services in a modern democratic state is to collect, analyze, evaluate, and pass on foreign intelligence to the government to assist it in making decisions related to national security. Their standard task also includes producing a range of studies that cover virtually any topic of interest to national-security policymakers. Depending on the resources, they use electronic means as well as human sources and, if necessary, undertake covert actions at the direction of the chief executive. A covert action is defined as an act to influence political, economic or military conditions abroad, while keeping in view some ethical considerations. Counter-intelligence operations mainly work to guard against espionage from foreign intelligence agencies in the country. They are also expected to effectively protect the secrets of its sources and methods. The role of intelligence services is to only report information and analysis and not to make policy recommendations."

Police Reforms: Agenda of Change

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 20:24:58 -0600

"...Besides leading to bad governance and a deplorable law and order situation in the country, police failures also have compounded the threat of religious extremism and terrorism. Poor data collection on crime and criminals and inadequate analytical capabilities hamper effective law enforcement. In many instances, banned militant organisations continued with their publications and in some cases wanted criminals, and terrorists changed their party affiliations (hurriedly joining groups that were not under government scrutiny after theirs were banned) and the police remained clueless. Here the police was also handicapped as many militant groups were producing "freedom fighters" for Kashmir and Afghanistan and had working relations with the intelligences services, and hence police officials were reluctant to go after some of these elements thinking that they might be the assets of some "other state institution." Things are reported to be progressively changing in this sphere lately, but the serious challenge remains...."

Heart vs. Mind and Monitoring Elections in Pakistan

Xenia Dormandy — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 12:00:05 -0600

Xenia Dormandy reflects on her experience monitoring the February 18 parliamentary elections in Pakistan.

Security and Intelligence

Hassan Abbas — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 13:59:36 -0600

"The Pakistani Army positively contributed towards the holding of free elections on Feb 18, but it cannot be expected to do the job of law enforcement endlessly. Dependence on the military for such tasks ultimately persuades its leadership to increase the army’s involvement in the political domain, and in the process that follows such thinking, Pakistan loses many years. Generals like Waheed Kakar and Jahangir Karamat are rare, and given some recent developments it seems that Pakistan is lucky to have another of their kind in the form of the new chief, Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. This golden opportunity should not be lost (like before) to nurture and groom civilian institutions to stand on their own feet."

The Pakistan Elections: What Next?

Eric Bjornlund, Hassan Abbas, Hasan-Askari Rizvi and Dr. Marvin G. Weinbaum — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 13:03:03 -0600

On February 18, Pakistanis voted in parliamentary elections. The results were a major blow to President Pervez Musharraf and his supporters. Opposition parties, led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and a resurgent Awami National Party (ANP), scored major victories. The prime losers were the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) and Islamists. How can these elections be assessed, and what do they portend for Pakistan’s future and for U.S. policy? These questions were examined at an Asia Program event held one week after the elections.

Pakistan Elections

Xenia Dormandy — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 12:00:42 -0600

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, gave a Shorenstein lecture on the Pakistan parliamentary elections at the National Press Club on February 21, 2008.

Pakistan Elections: A Clear Verdict

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 11:18:59 -0600

"As for Musharraf, he is living in a fool's paradise if he thinks he is going to be a father figure to the next prime minister of Pakistan. The new government will be under tremendous public pressure to bring back the deposed judges, and that could sound a death knell for the Musharraf presidency. For the army, which is distancing itself from Musharraf already, institutional interests, saving prestige and influence, will be more important than rescuing a president who continues to shoot himself in the foot. The west in general — and Britain and the US in particular — must show patience while democratic forces settle; at least as much patience as they showed with military dictators. This is the very least that the people of Pakistan earned yesterday."

Pakistan Election Update: Election Day

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 10:16:38 -0600

February 18, 2008

Xenia Dormandy writes from Pakistan that elections "appear to have been in large part peaceful, notwithstanding some being delayed due to security threats and some bombings at polling stations. While the results are still being counted and a formal tally will not be out for some while, informally, we are likely to know the results even this evening."

Bangladesh's model

Robert Rotberg — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 10:50:07 -0600

February 17, 2008

With Pakistan on edge ahead of Monday's parliamentary elections and opponents vowing to oust beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf, this is a good time to look at how another nearby predominantly Muslim country is faring under military rule.

Pakistan: Opposition Parties Are Poised to Win Poll

Hassan Abbas — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 00:00:48 -0600

"While there is a considerable risk that the elections will be rigged and that poor security will deter voting, pro-Musharraf parties will be swept from power. The PPP is expected to secure the most votes, raising the prospect of a grand coalition of parties united in opposition to the president. Stable government will depend on their ability to work together, as well as with Musharraf, for as long as he remains in power."

Pakistan Political Stability

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 13:25:03 -0600

Since March 2007, tensions in Pakistan have been rising: the political instability surrounding both the presidential and parliamentary elections is commingling with the increase in militant activity within Pakistan proper, which led to around 60 suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2007. Following Benazir Bhutto's assassination on December 27, the extremists have upped the ante, perhaps hoping to disrupt the February 18 elections. Is Pakistan becoming the world's "most dangerous nation"?

A Pakistani Revolution

Xenia Dormandy — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 11:12:32 -0600

The lack of predictability and transparency through both the presidential and parliamentary elections have compounded the confusion, the instability, and Musharraf's loss of credibility. Is Pakistan becoming "the world's most dangerous nation"?

Flooding Out and Drying Up in Southasia

Sunita Dubey and Ananth Chikkatur — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:37:05 -0600

In this essay, Dubey and Chikkatur describe how climate change is affecting the region from the Maldives to Pakistan, and what steps government and individuals can take to mitigate against it and adapt to it. They explore issues of food and economic security, climate injustice, and the need for sustainable lifestyles.

A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army's New Limited War Doctrine

Walter C. Ladwig III — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 13:32:58 -0600

India’s inability to coerce Pakistan into halting its support for insurgents in Kashmir, as well as its experience in past conflicts with Pakistan, led it to develop Cold Start—a new offensive military doctrine that will allow it to mobilize quickly and retaliate in a limited manner. Although India is far from realizing its goal, this break from a traditional defensive strategy deserves scrutiny. A history of misperception and mistrust between India and Pakistan, poor intelligence, and domestic insecurity suggests that limited war could quickly escalate to the nuclear threshold, posing a serious risk to the stability of the subcontinent and the rest of the world.

Scotland Yard to Probe Bhutto Death

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 12:00:26 -0600

Xenia Dormandy, a former director for South Asia at the National Security Council and currently director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, agreed that Mrs. Bhutto's assassination had put Mr. Musharraf's future in jeopardy.

"He is being widely blamed for the assassination attack by PPP cadre, either directly or for complicity in not providing her sufficient security,” Ms. Dormandy said.

What Lies Ahead in Pakistan?

Aida Akl, Jela de Franceschi, Victor Morales and Xenia Dormandy — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 00:00:57 -0600

Voice of America interviews Xenia Dormandy on Pakistan's political future following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Listen to her interview online: http://www.voanews.com/english/NewsAnalysis/2008-01-03-voa21.cfm

A Profile of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 21:50:03 -0600

"The organizational strength, military strategy and leadership quality of the Taliban in Pakistan's tribal territories has qualitatively improved during the last few years. At the time of the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan in late 2001, allies and sympathizers of the Taliban in Pakistan were not identified as 'Taliban' themselves. That reality is now a distant memory. Today, Pakistan's indigenous Taliban are an effective fighting force and are engaging the Pakistani military on one side and NATO forces on the other."