Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Latest Publications

Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation

Matthew Kroenig — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Matthew Kroenig examines the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on international politics. He proposes a theory of nuclear proliferation that examines the differential effects of nuclear proliferation. Kroenig argues that the threat nuclear proliferation poses to a particular state depends on that state’s ability to project military power. This article contributes to our understanding of the consequences of nuclear proliferation and contains important implications for nuclear nonproliferation policy.

Sectoral Approaches for a Post-2012 Climate Regime: A Taxonomy

Jonas Meckling and Gu Yoon Chung — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:26:11 -0500

Sectoral approaches have been gaining currency in the international climate debate as a possible remedy to the shortfalls of the Kyoto Protocol. Proponents argue that a sector-based architecture can more easily invite the participation of developing countries, address competitiveness issues, and enable immediate emissions reductions. However, given the numerous proposals, much confusion remains as to what sectoral approaches actually are. This article provides a simple, yet comprehensive, taxonomy of the various proposals for sectoral approaches.

Obamacare's Nasty Surprise

Martin Feldstein — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:39:30 -0500

"...[F]or those who are now privately insured through employers or by direct purchase, there would be substantial incentives to become uninsured until they become sick. The resulting rise in the cost to insurance companies as the insured population becomes sicker would raise the average premium, strengthening that incentive."

Climate Finance

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:40:05 -0500

The finance of climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries represents a key challenge in the negotiations on a post-2012 international climate agreement. Finance mechanisms are important because stabilizing the climate will require significant emissions reductions in both the developed and the developing worlds, and therefore large-scale investments in energy infrastructure. The current state of climate finance has been criticized for its insufficient scale, relatively low share of private-sector investment, and insufficient institutional framework. This policy brief presents options for improving and expanding climate finance.

Pride and Prejudice and Prithvis: Strategic Weapons Behavior in South Asia

Vipin Narang — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:45:02 -0500

Vipin Narang's chapter "Pride and Prejudice and Prithvis: Strategic Weapons Behavior in South Asia" in the book Inside Nuclear South Asia was published by Stanford University. Narang examines the ballistic missile flight-testing pattern in the region as a proxy for nuclearization and as an indicator for both states' strategic weapons decisions, attempting to clarify the variables that drive both India and Pakistan to test strategic weapons when they do.

Muddling Through: How Development's Past Shapes Its Future

David Ekbladh — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:45:35 -0500

International development is back. President Barack Obama has given it significance in U.S. strategy not seen since the Cold War. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's much touted "Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review," emphasizes her own belief that it is, "a core pillar of American power."

In Afghanistan, Kerry Keeps U.S. Goals Modest

Graham Allison — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:46:32 -0500

"President Obama confronts the most fateful foreign policy decision so far of his administration," says Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. "Rapidly deteriorating security in Afghanistan, the post-election political crisis in Kabul, highlighted by Abdullah Abdullah's decision to drop out of the runoff vote, and General Stanley McChrystal's request for 44,000 troops rightly spurred Obama to call a timeout for reflection."

Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars

Monica Duffy Toft — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:23:36 -0500

"Using comprehensive data on internal conflicts, Toft challenges the flawed assumptions driving international peacemaking diplomacy and peacekeeping operations, which sadly may be prolonging civil wars instead of ending them. This provocative and politically incorrect book ought to stimulate a long-needed debate over the efficacy of current approaches to ending conflicts." - Andrew Natsios, Georgetown University

Petraeus, not Westmoreland

Ben Heineman — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:25:59 -0500

"I think it is the grappling with important problems with greater-than-expected candor, genuine authenticity and extraordinary sacrifice that accounts for the military's high standing. The chosen military messengers often convey that. Can we say the same of other sectors of society: hard problems, candor, authenticity, sacrifice?"

A Middle Way, Best Solution to Nuclear Crisis

Kayhan Barzegar — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:53:42 -0500

"Although it is difficult under the current circumstances to predict Iran's response to the agreement, but all signs point to a middle way, which if chosen carefully, could be positive and in line with Iran's national interests. In fact, if Iran kept part of the enriched uranium in the country and sent the rest to another country, it would pave the way for the continuation of cooperation."

Hard Decisions on Soft Power: Opportunities and Difficulties for Chinese Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye and Wang Jisi — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:34:09 -0400

"But just as China's economic and military power does not yet match that of the United States, China's soft power still has a long way to go as demonstrated by a Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll. China does not have cultural industries like Hollywood, and its universities are not yet the equal of the United States. It lacks the many non-governmental organizations that generate much of US soft power. Politically, China suffers from corruption, inequality, and a lack of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. While that may make the "Beijing consensus" attractive in authoritarian and semi-authoritarian developing countries, it undercuts China's soft power in the West. Although China's new diplomacy has enhanced its attractiveness to its neighbors in Southeast Asia, the belligerence of its hard power stance toward Taiwan hurt it in Europe when China sought to persuade Europeans to relax their embargo on the sale of arms. Given the domestic problems that China must still overcome, there are limits to China's ability to attract others, but one would be foolish to ignore the gains the country is making."

Why the Renminbi has to Rise to Address Imbalances

Martin Feldstein — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:39:42 -0400

"China's policy of keeping the renminbi weak means that the US dollar must decline more rapidly against the euro, yen and other currencies to achieve the same overall trade-weighted fall of the dollar," says Martin Feldstein, member of the Belfer Center's board of directors. "China's weak renminbi policy therefore not only prevents remedying China's large current account surplus but also reduces Europe's exports," he says.

The Future of Pakistan: A Conversation with Simon Shercliff and Hassan Abbas

Hassan Abbas and Simon Shercliff — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:09:32 -0400

October 30, 2009

Hassan Abbas, a former Pakistani government official and senior advisor to Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, recently spoke to Simon Shercliff, First Secretary Foreign Security and Policy for the British Embassy, about the future of Pakistan. Their conversation touched on a range of topics, including the militants' recent attacks on the Pakistani military, Pakistan's relationship with India, Pakistan-UK relations, and U.S. aid to Pakistan.

Testing the NATO Alliance: Afghanistan and the Future of Cooperation

Azeem Ibrahim — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:15:01 -0400

"...[O]n the ground, Afghanistan does not look like a NATO mission, but a deployment of an ad hoc alliance. This impression is bolstered given that eight non-NATO countries are also contributing troops. This arrangement calls into question how genuine and useful the alliance will be in the future. It is no good to argue that NATO countries should share the burden more equally. That will not be enough to persuade skeptical governments to offer more troops. The truth is that the differences in deployment levels reflect real differences of public and political opinion. Unfortunately, there is no reason to expect that they should agree in the future either, as there is no longer agreement on what constitutes NATO's mission in Afghanistan."

Afghans Need to Find a New Model of Democracy

Paul Fishstein — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:03:34 -0400

"While democracy is notoriously difficult to define, it is generally considered to be something positive. Until the debacle of the August presidential elections, 'fledgling democracy' was touted as one of the west's great achievements in Afghanistan."

We Mustn't Judge Leaders by Values of Hollywood

Azeem Ibrahim — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 23:15:37 -0400

"Imagine the front-ranking opposition front-bencher, with decades of work and experience behind him, forced to conclude he was underqualified to lead his party because he lacked a full head of hair. Or the shadow cabinet team, waiting to listen to speeches by two leadership contenders, knowing before either candidate has stepped on to the podium who they will vote for as leader by looking at their faces alone."

War From Cyberspace

Richard Clarke — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:12:17 -0400

October 27, 2009

The United States thinks that its cyber warriors are the best at offense, with the capability of shutting down enemy air defenses, electric-power grids, rail systems and telephony. Such offensive prowess does nothing to defend our own networks from similar attacks, however, and the current U.S. defense systems protect only parts of the federal government, and not civilian or private-sector infrastructure. No nation is as dependent on cyber systems and networks for the operation of its infrastructure, economy and military as the United States. Yet, few national governments have less control over what goes on in its cyberspace than Washington.

The Global Impact of America’s Health Care Debate

Martin Feldstein — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:27:33 -0400

President Obama's health care proposals are meeting strong opposition from fiscally conservative Democrats as well as from Republicans, owing to their potential impact on future fiscal deficits, says Martin Feldstein, member of the Belfer Center's board of directors. "Because those deficits are the primary cause of America's current-account deficit," he says, the "health-care debate's outcome will affect governments and investors around the world."

Three Pillars of Post-2012 International Climate Policy

Sheila M. Olmstead and Robert N. Stavins — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:03:35 -0400

Our proposal for a post-2012 international global climate policy agreement contains three essential elements: meaningful involvement by key industrialized and developing nations; an emphasis on an extended time path of targets; and inclusion of market-based policy instruments. This architecture is consistent with fundamental aspects of the science, economics, and politics of global climate change.

Russian Nuke Plans, Overkill

Simon Saradzhyan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:03:20 -0400

October 22, 2009

The Russian military and security community's drive to expand the use of nuclear weapons in the new defense doctrine will add little value to deterring real threats, but may undermine Russia's image as a co-leader of nuclear arms control, Simon Saradzhyan comments for ISN Security Watch.

High Cost, Low Odds

Stephen M. Walt — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:34:44 -0400

"...America's odds of winning this war are slim. The Karzai government is corrupt, incompetent and resistant to reform. The Taliban have sanctuaries in Pakistan and can hide among the local populace, making it possible for them simply to outlast us. Pakistan has backed the Afghan Taliban in the past and is not a reliable partner now. Our European allies are war-weary and looking for the exits. The more troops we send and the more we interfere in Afghan affairs, the more we look like foreign occupiers and the more resistance we will face. There is therefore little reason to expect a US victory."

Damietta Mobilizes for Its Environment

Jeannie Sowers and Sharif Elmusa — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:40:50 -0400

October 21, 2009

In 2008, Egypt's Mediterranean port city of Damietta saw escalating protest against EAgrium, a Canadian consortium building a large fertilizer complex in Ra's al-Barr. Ra's al-Barr sits at the end of an estuary, where the Damietta branch of the Nile River joins the Mediterranean. It is a prime destination for vacationing Egyptians in the summertime and the location of the year-round residences of the Damiettan elite. Fishermen ply the waters offshore. When plans for the fertilizer complex were announced, a coalition of locals feared that all three sources of income -- tourism, real estate and fishing -- would be jeopardized by emissions into the air and water. As summer temperatures climbed and the protests mounted, the government found itself caught between its contractual obligations to international investors and a well-organized local movement opposed to the project on both environmental and developmental grounds.

Seeking More Private Investment is a Nobel Cause for Universities

Azeem Ibrahim — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:28:52 -0400

"For too long here, we have believed that the money should come only from the poor put-upon taxpayer. As should be painfully clear, that is insufficient. As is starting to happen, universities need to diversify their sources of income to provide the investment that turns an adequate university into a great one. That means making greater use of alumni contacts, and aggressively looking for philanthropy and endowments."

A Portfolio of Domestic Commitments: Implementing Common but Differentiated Responsibilities

Robert N. Stavins — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 12:07:44 -0400

An effective, but more flexible and politically palatable approach could be an international agreement on a "portfolio of domestic commitments." Under such an agreement, nations would agree to honor commitments to greenhouse gas emission reductions laid out in their own domestic laws and regulations. A portfolio of commitments may emerge from a global meeting such as the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, or a smaller number of major economies could negotiate an agreement among themselves, and then invite other countries to join.

Thinking Outside the Box Could Save Royal Mail

Azeem Ibrahim — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:37:32 -0400

"Since 1969, it has been a public limited company owned by the government. But as mail volumes have fallen, the debate about whether it should be public or private has forced it to live in uncertainty about its future. Some see it as an essential public service which the government should run. But last year's Hooper Report says it is 40 per cent less efficient than its European counterparts...."

The São Paulo Proposal for an Agreement on Future International Climate Policy

Erik Haites, Farhana Yamin and Niklas Höhne — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:52:23 -0400

The São Paulo Proposal is designed to create a stable, long-term, universal regime based on the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Such a regime is required to encourage the technological change and structural shifts necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. Richer countries adopt binding targets that become more stringent over time. Financial and institutional provisions to enhance developing country implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions are strengthened.

Expert Elicitation of Cost, Performance, and RD&D Budgets for Greenhouse Gas Reducing Strategies

Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:22:11 -0400

Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon of the Energy Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project presented at the 2009 Annual Meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS).

Harvard Project Conducts Roundtable Workshop in Brussels, Hosted by the European Union Commissioner for Environment

Robert C. Stowe — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:08:56 -0400

The Harvard Project conducted a roundtable workshop on September 30, 2009, hosted by European Union Commissioner for Environment Stavros Dimas and titled "Post-2012 Climate Change Policy: Insights from the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements". Commissioner Dimas and Robert Stavins, Director of the Harvard Project, spoke, respectively, on the status of European Union (EU) and U.S. climate change policy.

U.S., Russia Must Lead on Arms Control

General Brent Scowcroft, Joseph S. Nye, R. Nicholas Burns and Strobe Talbott — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:10:15 -0400

"The Nobel Peace Prize Committee cited Obama's dedication to arms control and nonproliferation when announcing last Friday his selection as this year's laureate. If he creates a positive, mutually reinforcing dynamic in the way he presents and sequences the two treaties [NPT and CTBT], it will give momentum and coherence to follow-on negotiations and the agreements that they produce."

Obama's Nuclear Agenda

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:45:06 -0400

"So long as the world remains a dangerous place with several nuclear weapons states, Obama must reassure its allies about the credibility of American guarantees of extended deterrence. Otherwise, reductions that create anxieties in other countries could lead them to develop their own weapons and thus increase the number of nuclear weapons states."