Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Latest Publications

Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation

Matthew Kroenig — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Matthew Kroenig examines the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on international politics. He proposes a theory of nuclear proliferation that examines the differential effects of nuclear proliferation. Kroenig argues that the threat nuclear proliferation poses to a particular state depends on that state’s ability to project military power. This article contributes to our understanding of the consequences of nuclear proliferation and contains important implications for nuclear nonproliferation policy.

Creating a Climate Policy Review Mechanism

Michael A. Levi — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:01:15 -0500

International climate negotiations are becoming increasingly focused on suites of emissions-cutting policies and measures, rather than solely on traditional targets and timetables, particularly for developing countries. This approach raises at least two important challenges for negotiators and policymakers. First, how can negotiators judge whether states' proposed policies and measures are commensurate with ambitious global goals for controlling emissions? Second, how can policymakers evaluate whether climate policies and measures (in both developed and developing countries) are succeeding and maximize the odds that countries will actually deliver needed emissions cuts? Answering both questions is essential to reconciling a bottom-up approach to climate change mitigation with top-down need for strong global emissions cuts.

Why Israel is Safer (from Iran) Than it Might Seem

Azeem Ibrahim — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:53:23 -0500

Most of the arguments that Iran is a threat to Israel center around Iranian President Ahmadinejad's anti-Semitism and holocaust denial. But he does not make Iranian foreign policy, Khameini does. Khameini has been in office since 1989, throughout the period of relative detente with the West during Khatami's presidency, and through the violent and volatile Ahmadinejad years. Yes, there is evidence that Khameini is a tyrant comfortable sanctioning violence to hold onto power in Iran; no, there is no evidence that he is a psychopath whose hatred of Israel would drive him to order the murder of millions. Yes, there is evidence that he sanctions the sponsorship of anti-Israel terrorism to increase his influence in the region, but no, there is no evidence that he values a confrontation with Israel the reprisal from which would inevitably cause Iranian casualties and threaten the regime's already weak power structure (from within even if not from without).

Reconciliation Means Never Having to Say You're Sorry

Yvonne Malan — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:20:15 -0500

"The world loved the Rainbow Nation success story and chose, along with many South Africans, to ignore that reconciliation can easily be used to justify impunity. Jansen's description of the Reitz Four, that they too are his children and that he cannot disown them, echoes the mythology of the TRC that perpetrators were sinners who strayed and need to be forgiven (and granted amnesty), not as individuals who broke the law and need to be held accountable. Any serious discussion about rights and responsibility is quickly marginalised, with dangerous implications for any attempts to foster a respect for human rights and a respect for the rule of law."

Enabling a Nuclear Revival—and Managing Its Risks

Matthew Bunn and Martin B. Malin — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:34:26 -0500

Matthew Bunn and Martin B. Malin examine the conditions needed for nuclear energy to grow on a scale large enough for it to be a significant part of the world’s response to climate change. They consider the safety, security, nonproliferation, and waste management risks associated with such growth and recommend approaches to managing these risks. Bunn and Malin argue that although technological solutions may contribute to nuclear expansion in the coming decades, in the near term, creating the conditions for large-scale nuclear energy growth will require major international institutional innovation.

Energy for Change: Introduction to the Special Issue on Energy & Climate Change

John P. Holdren — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:23:30 -0500

"Without energy, there is no economy. Without climate, there is no environment. Without economy and environment, there is no material well-being, no civil society, no personal or national security. The overriding problem associated with these realities, of course, is that the world has long been getting most of the energy its economies need from fossil fuels whose emissions are imperiling the climate that its environment needs."

Defining Corporate Citizenship

Ben Heineman — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:07:10 -0500

"In this period of economic turmoil and dislocation, with cut-backs in government spending and reductions in foundation endowments and outlays, the need for corporate philanthropy has never been greater. Such philanthropic expenditures are usually a tiny percentage of a corporation's costs, but they remain vital, especially now."

Breaking the Climate Impasse with China: A Global Solution

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:56:51 -0500

A "deal" is proposed in this paper, whereby all major-emitting countries, including the United States and China, agree to reduce emissions through implementation of significant, mutually agreeable, domestic emission-reduction policies. To resolve the competitiveness and equity concerns, a proposed Carbon Mitigation Fund would be created. This proposed fund is contrasted with other existing and proposed mitigation funds and finance mechanisms.

Harvard Kennedy School Presents 2009 Roy Award for Environmental Partnership to Mexico City Metrobus

Sharon Wilke — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:23:33 -0500

Harvard Kennedy School presented the 2009 Roy Family Award for Environmental Partnership on Thursday, November 12, to the Mexico City Metrobus, a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system that reduces air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions while improving the quality of life and transportation options in one of the largest cities in the world. Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrarb, on behalf of the Mexico City government, joined other project partners in accepting the award during a ceremony and dinner at Harvard Kennedy School on Thursday, November 12.

The Great Wallop

Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:41:59 -0500

"A few years ago we came up with the term "Chimerica" to describe the combination of the Chinese and American economies, which together had become the key driver of the global economy," says Niall Ferguson member of the Belfer Center's board of directors. "Correcting the economic imbalance between the United States and China - the dissolution of Chimerica - is now indispensable if equilibrium is to be restored to the world economy."

Beyond Zero Enrichment: Suggestions for an Iranian Nuclear Deal

Matthew Bunn — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:35:47 -0500

"Some form of negotiated agreement, if it can be achieved, is the “least bad” option for U.S. interests—but is likely to have to include some continuing enrichment in Iran. There are real security risks in agreeing to permit some ongoing enrichment in Iran, but if appropriately managed, these security risks are less than those created by a military strike or allowing Iran to continue unfettered enrichment with no agreement."

South Korea's Growing Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:27:13 -0500

"...South Korea has the resources to produce soft power, and its soft power is not prisoner to the geographical limitations that have constrained its hard power throughout its history. As a result, South Korea is beginning to design a foreign policy that will allow it to play a larger role in the international institutions and networks that will be essential to global governance."

The Ugly End-Game

Ben Heineman — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:17:24 -0500

"Everyone standing outside the center of the process can advocate their position: the bill must have this or that. Everyone standing outside the center can say if the president and speaker and majority leader and committee chairs had any backbone, they wouldn't do the deals with the powerful interests and abandon vital principles.
But the people at the center have to count -- and get -- the votes."

The Big Impact of Small Footprints

Thomas Hegghammer — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:00:56 -0500

"The power of small incidents has increased in the past decade thanks to the Internet. Increasing bandwidth, cheaper digital cameras and fast-learning activists have turned the world wide web into a giant propaganda tool which can generate powerful visual messages and project them instantly to a global audience. The smallest detail can be dramatically enlarged and turned into a symbol of 'Muslim suffering at the hands of non-Muslims.' On jihadi discussion forums such as Faloja (named after the Iraqi city whose 2004 battles between jihadis and U.S. forces made it an icon of Muslim suffering), high-quality video productions appear on a daily basis. The relationship between objective physical destruction and jihadi mobilization has never been less linear."

China's Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Vehicles: Rationale, Policy Process, and Impacts

Hongyan He Oliver, Kelly Sims Gallagher, Donglian Tian and Jinhua Zhang — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:29:10 -0500

"China issued its first Fuel Economy Standards (FES) for light-duty passenger vehicles (LDPV) in September 2004, and the first and second phases of the FES took effective in July 2005 and January 2008, respectively. The stringency of the Chinese FES ranks third globally, following the Japanese and European standards....The Chinese experience is highly relevant for countries that are also experiencing or anticipating rapid growth in personal vehicles, those wishing to moderate an increase in oil demand, or those desirous of vehicle technology upgrades."

Catalyzing Strategic Transformation to a Low-carbon Economy: A CCS Roadmap for China

Hengwei Liu and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:32:49 -0500

China now faces the three hard truths of thirsting for more oil, relying heavily on coal, and ranking first in global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Given these truths, two key questions must be addressed to develop a low-carbon economy: how to use coal in a carbon-constrained future? How to increase domestic oil supply to enhance energy security? Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) may be a technological solution that can deal with today's energy and environmental needs while enabling China to move closer to a low-carbon energy future. This paper has been developed to propose a possible CCS roadmap for China.

Afghanistan is Neither Vietnam nor Iraq

William H. Tobey — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:27:48 -0500

"Afghanistan has little in common with either Vietnam or Iraq in terms of history, geography, culture, or politics. There is, however, a more apt analogy, and it involves the very area in dispute."

The Year the World Really Changed

Niall Ferguson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 10:59:19 -0500

"...1989 was less of a watershed year than 1979. The reverberations of the fall of the Berlin Wall turned out to be much smaller than we had expected at the time. In essence, what happened was that we belatedly saw through the gigantic fraud of Soviet superpower. But the real trends of our time—the rise of China, the radicalization of Islam, and the rise and fall of market fundamentalism—had already been launched a decade earlier."

Who Caused the End of the Cold War?

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:31:25 -0500

"Ultimately the deepest causes of Soviet collapse were the decline of communist ideology and the failure of the Soviet economy. This would have happened even without Gorbachev. In the early Cold War, communism and the Soviet Union had a good deal of soft power. Many communists had led the resistance against fascism in Europe, and many people believed that communism was the wave of the future....Although in theory communism aimed to instill a system of class justice, Lenin's heirs maintained domestic power through a brutal state security system involving lethal purges, gulags, broad censorship, and the use of informants. The net effect of these repressive measures was a general loss of faith in the system."

Global Impact of America's Health-Care Debate

Martin Feldstein — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:19:24 -0500

"[Barack Obama's] proposals are meeting strong opposition from fiscally conservative Democrats as well as from Republicans, owing to their potential impact on future fiscal deficits," says Martin Feldstein, member of the Belfer Center's board of directors. "Because those deficits are the primary cause of America's current-account deficit - and thus of global imbalances - the health-care debate's outcome will affect governments and investors around the world."

Sectoral Approaches for a Post-2012 Climate Regime: A Taxonomy

Jonas Meckling and Gu Yoon Chung — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:26:11 -0500

Sectoral approaches have been gaining currency in the international climate debate as a possible remedy to the shortfalls of the Kyoto Protocol. Proponents argue that a sector-based architecture can more easily invite the participation of developing countries, address competitiveness issues, and enable immediate emissions reductions. However, given the numerous proposals, much confusion remains as to what sectoral approaches actually are. This article provides a simple, yet comprehensive, taxonomy of the various proposals for sectoral approaches.

Obamacare's Nasty Surprise

Martin Feldstein — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:39:30 -0500

"...[F]or those who are now privately insured through employers or by direct purchase, there would be substantial incentives to become uninsured until they become sick. The resulting rise in the cost to insurance companies as the insured population becomes sicker would raise the average premium, strengthening that incentive."

Climate Finance

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:40:05 -0500

The finance of climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries represents a key challenge in the negotiations on a post-2012 international climate agreement. Finance mechanisms are important because stabilizing the climate will require significant emissions reductions in both the developed and the developing worlds, and therefore large-scale investments in energy infrastructure. The current state of climate finance has been criticized for its insufficient scale, relatively low share of private-sector investment, and insufficient institutional framework. This policy brief presents options for improving and expanding climate finance.

Pride and Prejudice and Prithvis: Strategic Weapons Behavior in South Asia

Vipin Narang — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:45:02 -0500

Vipin Narang's chapter "Pride and Prejudice and Prithvis: Strategic Weapons Behavior in South Asia" in the book Inside Nuclear South Asia was published by Stanford University. Narang examines the ballistic missile flight-testing pattern in the region as a proxy for nuclearization and as an indicator for both states' strategic weapons decisions, attempting to clarify the variables that drive both India and Pakistan to test strategic weapons when they do.

Muddling Through: How Development's Past Shapes Its Future

David Ekbladh — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:45:35 -0500

International development is back. President Barack Obama has given it significance in U.S. strategy not seen since the Cold War. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's much touted "Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review," emphasizes her own belief that it is, "a core pillar of American power."

In Afghanistan, Kerry Keeps U.S. Goals Modest

Graham Allison — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:46:32 -0500

"President Obama confronts the most fateful foreign policy decision so far of his administration," says Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. "Rapidly deteriorating security in Afghanistan, the post-election political crisis in Kabul, highlighted by Abdullah Abdullah's decision to drop out of the runoff vote, and General Stanley McChrystal's request for 44,000 troops rightly spurred Obama to call a timeout for reflection."

Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars

Monica Duffy Toft — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:23:36 -0500

"Using comprehensive data on internal conflicts, Toft challenges the flawed assumptions driving international peacemaking diplomacy and peacekeeping operations, which sadly may be prolonging civil wars instead of ending them. This provocative and politically incorrect book ought to stimulate a long-needed debate over the efficacy of current approaches to ending conflicts." - Andrew Natsios, Georgetown University

Petraeus, not Westmoreland

Ben Heineman — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:25:59 -0500

"I think it is the grappling with important problems with greater-than-expected candor, genuine authenticity and extraordinary sacrifice that accounts for the military's high standing. The chosen military messengers often convey that. Can we say the same of other sectors of society: hard problems, candor, authenticity, sacrifice?"

A Middle Way, Best Solution to Nuclear Crisis

Kayhan Barzegar — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:53:42 -0500

"Although it is difficult under the current circumstances to predict Iran's response to the agreement, but all signs point to a middle way, which if chosen carefully, could be positive and in line with Iran's national interests. In fact, if Iran kept part of the enriched uranium in the country and sent the rest to another country, it would pave the way for the continuation of cooperation."

Health Financing and Health Outcomes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Marwa Farag — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 18:38:12 -0400

October 31, 2009

This paper presents an overview of health spending and health outcomes in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region over the time period 1995-2006, using cross-country and over-time comparisons. Overall, the region experienced improvements in health outcomes measured in terms of reductions in infant, under-5 child mortality and maternal mortality. However, there are notable exceptions to this trend of declining mortality in countries such as Afghanistan. In addition to providing an overview of changes in health outcomes and health spending over the 12-year period, the paper examines the following two issues:

1) The responsiveness of health care spending to changes in a country's income, and

2) The impact of spending on health care services on health outcomes.