Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Latest Publications

Insure to Assure: A New Paradigm for Nuclear Nonproliferation and International Security

Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra K. Decker — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:52:42 -0400

"No country has yet encountered major problems in its nuclear fuel supply specifically because of commercial disruptions. However, past political constraints on supply may be part of the motivation for countries like Iran to seek enrichment capability. Thus far it is unclear what other countries might be on the fence about acquiring a full fuel cycle and could be swayed not to enrich if an effective assurance mechanism could address the simply political risk. It is important for IAEA to identify these countries and the assurances they would need so that the best supply assurance mechanism can be crafted. Anticipating nuclear needs—not just for enriched uranium but also for fabricated fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.—and deciding whether and how government should help satisfy such needs is the best way to ensure that the industry develops in ways that serve the public's interests."

Remembering Robert S. McNamara

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:25:09 -0400

Belfer Center Director Graham Allison pays tribute to Robert McNamara who passed away on July 6, 2009.

McNamara and a Lesson for Lebanon

Rami Khouri — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:55:34 -0400

"Remembering Robert McNamara's ways half a century ago, and watching Lebanese prime minister-designate Saad Hariri's deliberations today should remind us that military power, political legitimacy and national influence are three different things."

Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Securing Pakistani Nuclear Weapons

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 16:55:59 -0400

"The problem is not the quality of Pakistan's nuclear security efforts. The problem is that the standard for success is so unforgiving. In a world in which terrorists are actively seeking weapons of mass destruction, there can be no breakdown in security that enables terrorists to obtain a nuclear bomb."

Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions Among One Billion High Emitters

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:45:28 -0400

The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) created a 2-tier world. It called upon the developed ("Annex I") countries to "take the lead" in reducing carbon emissions, and, under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," established no time frame for developing countries to follow. However, a consensus is now emerging in favor of low stabilization targets. These targets cannot be achieved without the participation of developing countries, which today emit about half of global CO2 emissions and whose future emissions increase faster than the emissions of industrialized countries under "business as usual" scenarios.

Biofuels and Certification

Henry Lee and Charan Devereaux — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:52:56 -0400

Liquid biofuels can provide a substitute for fossil fuels in the transportation sector. Many countries have mandated the use of biofuels, by creating targets for their use. If not implemented with care, however, actions that increase biofuel production can put upward pressure on food prices, increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and exacerbate degradation of land, forest, and water sources. A strong global biofuels industry will not emerge unless these environmental and social concerns are addressed.

Ending North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions: The Need for Stronger Chinese Action

Hui Zhang — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:32:10 -0400

North Korea has recently taken a series of provocative steps to challenge the international community. If unchecked, North Korea will surely increase the quantity and quality of its arsenal. Even worse, once Pyongyang has more than enough weapons for its deterrent, it might be tempted to sell the surplus. The longer the crisis lasts, the more nuclear capable North Korea will become and the more difficult it will be to roll back Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. A nuclear North Korea would put China's national interests at great risk. Beijing can increase pressure on Pyongyang, using positive inducements and punitive measures. The chances are low, however, that Beijing will radically adjust its North Korea policy, at least for the near future. Beijing will continue to maintain its bottom-line approach, avoiding war on the Korean peninsula and an abrupt collapse of the Kim regime. From China's perspective, these scenarios must be avoided at all costs because they are contrary to China's primary interest in a stable environment.

Defense For a Real Threat

Trey Obering and Eric S. Edelman — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:25:05 -0400

July 6, 2009

"The East-West Institute released a study in late May by U.S. and Russian "experts" on the Iranian missile threat that concluded the threat "is not imminent and that in any event the system currently proposed would not be effective against it." The next day, Defense Secretary Robert Gates says, Iran apparently tested a multistage, solid-propellant missile with a range of 1,200 to 1,500 miles, putting much of Europe within range."

Realistic Costs of Carbon Capture

Mohammed Al-Juaied and Adam Whitmore — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 13:37:39 -0400

There is a growing interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a means of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However there are substantial uncertainties about the costs of CCS. Costs for pre-combustion capture with compression (i.e. excluding costs of transport and storage and any revenue from EOR associated with storage) are examined in this discussion paper for First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) plant and for more mature technologies, or Nth-of-a-Kind plant (NOAK).

On Robert McNamara

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:40:17 -0400

"...I assign the Errol Morris film The Fog of War to my students in a course about leadership and ethics in foreign policy. What the film shows is a man who belatedly realized his frailties and decided to warn a younger generation not to repeat his mistakes. Many former policy makers spend their time after office trying to cast their actions in the best possible light for history. Bob was a rare exception in exposing his mistakes...."

Hypocritical Kvetching

Rami Khouri — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:32:40 -0400

Negotiating with Iran cannot be any more difficult than it was with the Soviet Union. So why the hesitancy -- and the anguished, hypocritical debate in the West?

The Governance Crisis: First, Let’s Redefine the CEO Role

Ben Heineman — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:08:39 -0400

The witch's brew of high leverage, poor risk management, creation of toxic assets and poor business judgments-all made more poisonous by excessive short-term executive pay-are unprecedented failures of financial sector directors and CEOs. The result: credibility has eroded, trust has dissolved and financial re-regulation seems inevitable.

Obama-Medvedev Russia Summit: Key Things to Watch

Graham Allison, William H. Tobey and Matthew Bunn — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:13:10 -0400

July 2, 2009

Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev are meeting in Moscow July 6-8 to discuss a range of key issues, including reductions in nuclear weapons. Three experts from Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center offer their insights and analysis of the issues in play.

Three Cheers for Turkey

Rami Khouri — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:48:45 -0400

The most significant development in the Middle East? The continuing civilian control of the Turkish military -- the only instance where the power of military, police, and intelligence-security agencies is being checked by democratically-elected civilian authorities.

Remembering Ernest May

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:35:16 -0400

Ernest May, Charles Warren Professor of American History, a member of the Belfer Center's board of directors, and a faculty affiliate of the Center's International Security Program, passed away on Monday, June 1, 2009. Colleagues and family members offer their remembrances.

Disorder in the Ranks

Robert Rotberg — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:14:01 -0400

The label "failed" remains a powerful way to describe those states that no longer serve their people. That harsh term sharpens the attention of policymakers and helps single out countries that should be of utmost concern. The threat of such state failure also focuses attention on the soon-to-crumble; it is those countries that need the most external help.

Nuclear Security in Pakistan: Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Terrorism

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:20:57 -0400

"The greatest threat of a loose nuke scenario stems from insiders in the nuclear establishment working with outsiders, people seeking a bomb or material to make a bomb. Nowhere in the world is this threat greater than in Pakistan."

Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements

Matthew Fuhrmann — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Matthew Fuhrmann's article "Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements," was published by in the Summer 2009 issue of International Security. In his article, Dr. Fuhrmann argues "Peaceful nuclear cooperation—the transfer of nuclear technology, materials, or know-how from one state to another for peaceful purposes—leads to the spread of nuclear weapons. With a renaissance in nuclear power on the horizon, major suppliers, including the United States, should reconsider their willingness to assist other countries in developing peaceful nuclear programs."

Peace with Honor?

Ivan Arreguin-Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:43:07 -0400

"'Peace with honor.' This was the Nixon administration's euphemism for disengagement from South Vietnam, a place where corruption and incompetence had long doomed any hope of victory; even a victory as modest as the simple negative objective of preserving the political independence of tiny South Vietnam."

A Risky Prospect for Iraq

Monica Duffy Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:21:41 -0400

"As American troops pull back from Iraq's urban areas, a central question is whether Iraq's forces will be able to secure the peace. If history is any guide, Iraq's security forces face a challenging task. Ending civil wars and keeping them ended is not easy. Iraq faces three critical risk factors."

Empowerment Boom or Bust? Assessing Women's Post-Conflict Empowerment Initiatives

Megan Mackenzie — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:47:20 -0400

Over the past decade, the term 'empowerment' has been generously employed and woefully ill-defined. In particular, women's empowerment has been embraced by such a vast number of development actors that it appears to be a unifying mission within development. Despite the boom in women's empowerment initiatives, there remains little critical analysis of the use of empowerment in general, and the perceived success or failures of specific empowerment initiatives. Using the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration process in Sierra Leone as a case study, this paper examines how reintegration was described as a source of empowerment for women. Drawing from interviews and analysis of related policy discourses, it is argued that, rather than representing a radical shift in development approaches towards more inclusive and representative policies, empowerment projects are shaped by neoliberal ideas such as individualism, responsibility and economic order and carry implicit, gendered and disciplining messages about appropriate social behaviour.

Will carbon cap-and-trade incite protectionism?

Martin Feldstein — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:53:15 -0400

"There is no easy answer to this problem. But before rushing to impose tariffs, it is important to remember that cap-and-trade policies would not be the only government source of differences in competitiveness. Better roads, ports, and even schools all contribute to a country`s competitiveness."

Do not count on the Tories winning just yet

Niall Ferguson — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:05:45 -0400

"Most commentators assume that whenever the election happens it will be won by the Conservatives. The Labour party had its worst performance in the recent elections since 1910. As in the 1990s, the electorate is sick of the incumbent party. Just as the Labour party had young, telegenic Tony Blair in 1997, so the Tories today have young, telegenic David Cameron.

Yet this is to overstate the strength of the Conservative position."

Why Do Arabs Not Revolt?

Rami Khouri — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:43:09 -0400

Why do the top-heavy, non-democratic political control and governance systems of the Arab world persist without any significant popular opposition or public challenge?

The Fed must reassure markets on inflation

Martin Feldstein — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:13:23 -0400

"The simplest explanation for the higher 10-year rate is that many investors now expect inflation to rise. Although economic weakness and excess capacity are keeping current inflation low, the explosive rise of bank reserves created by Fed policy provides fuel for future inflation. The prospective decline of the dollar is also a potential source of inflation."

Regulating banks calls for attack on inertia

Sir John Gieve — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:42:03 -0400

"Of course, banks have had a terrible shock. They do not need telling that subprime mortgages can damage their health. They know that their risk management systems prepared them only for showers, not hurricanes. If they show signs of forgetfulness, at least for the next few years, their investors will remind them."

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

Dr. William J. Perry and General Brent Scowcroft — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 13:19:36 -0400

Perry and Scowcroft chaired the Council on Foreign Relations independent task force on U.S. nuclear weapons policy. The final report of the task force is provided here.

DOE FY 2010 Budget Request and Recovery Act Funding for Energy Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment: Analysis and Recommendations

Laura Diaz Anadon, Kelly Sims Gallagher and Matthew Bunn — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:27:51 -0400

A new analysis of energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment (ERD3) funding in the Obama administration's FY2010 budget and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 finds that the total available for energy research development and demonstration alone and ERD3 in FY2010 would double and increase by two-thirds, respectively, compared to FY2009 (based on certain assumptions). These substantial funding increases—coupled with a range of institutional innovations the administration is implementing and movement toward putting a price on carbon emissions—will help accelerate innovation for a broad range of energy technologies. This report analyzes DOE's budget request for ERD3 and the Recovery Act and makes recommendations for further action by Congress and the administration.

Joseph Nye's Testimony from Hearings on 'Japan's Changing Role'

Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:05:36 -0400

Joseph S. Nye testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and the Global Environment on "Japan's Changing Role" on June 25, 2009.

Funding for U.S. Efforts to Improve Controls Over Nuclear Weapons, Materials, and Expertise Overseas: A 2009 Update

Andrew Newman and Matthew Bunn — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:51:52 -0400

Andrew Newman and Matthew Bunn assess the Obama administration's fiscal year 2010 budget request for programs to improve controls over nuclear weapons, materials, and expertise worldwide. Funding for U.S. Efforts to Improve Controls Over Nuclear Weapons, Materials, and Expertise Overseas: A 2009 Update concludes that the request is a "steady as you go" budget and recommends that Congress and the administration work together to establish a $500 million contingency fund that could be used flexibly on a range of nuclear security programs.