Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Religious and ethnic wars, ethnic conflict

Hezbollah's Moment of Reckoning in Qusayr

Rami Khouri — Tue, 21 May 2013 14:16:06 -0500

The battle for Qusayr is only the haphazard spark within the larger Syrian war that could ignite this fire. The real causes of this combustible condition of the Arab region remain the dysfunction of modern Arab states and central governments, the ascendancy of police states and military regimes, the repercussions of the century-long Zionism-Arabism conflict, and the continuing status of the Middle East as a proxy battleground for regional and foreign powers.

New Rules of the Evolving Arab Order

Rami Khouri — Tue, 14 May 2013 09:32:43 -0500

May 14, 2013

The uprisings that erupted across the region as of December 2010 have been the single most important sign of a region-wide malaise that was gnawing at the core of Arab countries for decades, signaled in its earlier stages in the 1980s-90s by the rise of mass Islamist movements that reflected widespread citizen discontent and challenged autocratic governments. The evolving regional order is now entering its most dynamic stage of change, with every component element transforming into something new.

Nussaibah Younis: Foreign Policies of Weak States Matter

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:10:43 -0500

The invasion of Iraq prompted a deluge of work written on the country from a U.S. perspective, but Nussaibah Younis, a fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program, wants people to start considering Iraq as an actor in its own right. While at the Center, Younis is working on a project that seeks to understand internal Iraqi foreign policymaking dynamics since 2003.

Marisa Porges’ Journey from Naval Flight Officer to Counterterror Expert

Wesley Nord — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:09:02 -0500

"Belfer Center Fellow Marisa Porges’ career has already spanned the worlds of academia and policymaking, the government and the military. As an undergraduate at Harvard, Porges earned honors with a degree in geophysics and, during senior year, commanded her Navy Reserve Officer Training Corps unit. After graduation, she commissioned as a naval flight officer in the U.S. Navy and managed the weapons systems aboard EA-6B Prowlers, a carrier-based electronic warfare jet.... [now] as a doctoral candidate in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London and a research fellow with the Belfer Center’s International Security Program, she now combines scholarship and practice."

Podcast: Syria's "Endless" Nightmare: Humanitarian and Political Consequences

Mon, 13 May 2013 08:47:13 -0500

May 13, 2013

On Monday, May 6, the Middle East Initiative hosted a panel discussion addressing the most pressing concerns in the deepening, unabated Syrian crisis that has plagued the country since March of 2011. Moderated by Hilary Rantisi, Director of the Middle East Initiative, the panelists addressed the political, economic and humanitarian consequences of the violence in Syria, as well as the responses and responsibilities of the global community.

A Beginning for Syria Talks

David Ignatius — Thu, 09 May 2013 15:38:30 -0500

"It shouldn’t have been this hard, but Secretary of State John Kerry has finally gotten Russia to back the peace plan on Syria that it endorsed in principle last June. This isn’t a breakthrough, but at least it’s a beginning.

What the United States and Russia seem to have realized is that a negotiated transition of power in Syria is better than a fight to the death, which would destabilize the region. That’s a wise judgment, but it’s not clear that it’s shared by either the Alawite clique backing President Bashar al-Assad or the Sunni jihadists who are the backbone of the opposition."

The Real Scare in Syria is Not Chemical Weapons

Rami Khouri — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:21:34 -0500

May 7, 2013

"One of my rules of thumb of observing which way the wind blows in the Middle East is now in active operative mode: When Hezbollah and Israel both are actively fighting in the same third country, and Iran and the United States are both actively warning about their determination to act to protect their allies and their interests in that same third country, it is time to make another pot of coffee and make sure you have plenty of fresh batteries at home for your transistor radio."

Ellis Goldberg: "Sectarian Violence: The Third Rail of Egyptian Politics" Podcast

Tue, 07 May 2013 10:56:56 -0500

May 7, 2013

The Middle East Initiative hosted Professor Ellis Goldberg for a lecture on May 1, 2013 to discuss sectarian violence in Egypt. Professor Goldberg is currently the Kuwait Foundation Visiting Scholar at the Middle East Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School, and is a professor of political science at the University of Washington.

Stephen Walt on the Escalating Crisis in Syria

Fri, 03 May 2013 14:04:30 -0500

Earlier this month, Professor Stephen Walt shared his perspectives with the Harvard Kennedy School communications office on the deepening Syrian conflict. He discussed the role of the United States in the conflict, Assad's supporters, aid from the international community and more.

Why Obama Remains Cautious About Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:35:43 -0500

The Obama administration has been cautious in its response to the evidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons in part because it still hopes to convince Russia to join in an internationally supported move for a political transition from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Frustrated by Obama’s Caution on Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:30:49 -0500

"Gen. Salim Idriss, the commander of rebel forces in Syria, complained late Tuesday that President Obama’s desire “to wait and wait for more evidence” that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons is encouraging their continued use — and that these attacks will only stop if the United States and its allies impose a no-fly zone."

Obama Bets Big on Syrian Rebel Leader

David Ignatius — Thu, 02 May 2013 12:26:09 -0500

"The Obama administration is placing a large bet on the ability of a Syrian former professor of military engineering to build a coherent rebel army that can defeat the regime of Bashar al-Assad, combat Islamic radicals and help build a stable new Syria."

The Collapsing Arab State

Nawaf Obaid — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 11:15:47 -0500

The so-called Arab Spring generated a wave of hope among those fighting or advocating for democratization of the Arab world’s authoritarian regimes. Now, following leadership changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, and with a brutal civil war raging in Syria and increasingly fraught conditions in Bahrain, Sudan, Jordan, and Iraq, there is much talk of a major shift – and hope for improvement – in the nature and prospects of the Arab state.

The Test to Come: Forgiveness and Reconciliation

Rami Khouri — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 08:15:02 -0500

April 27, 2013

Is reconciliation a feasible option for the Arab world that now seems to be moving in the direction of greater domestic intolerance and warfare? We do not know, and only time will tell. The track record of intra-Arab reconciliation has not been very impressive in recent decades, in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain, Sudan and others.

Two Saints and a Sinner

Ellis Goldberg — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 10:16:48 -0500

"Recently there has been a marked decline in attempts by either the government or private persons to claim that their opponents are foreign agents or elements acting in their interest. This is not because political discourse has become kinder and gentler. It has become notably more intense and it is certainly not limited to debates about policy differences. Striking, however, is how infrequently anyone levies the once-common charge that opponents are not Egyptian...it is too early to say if this is a station on the way to a discourse that is both more civil and more probing or simply two distinct communities that refuse to listen to each other. But it is a significant change."

Q&A with Dara Kay Cohen

Dara Kay Cohen — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:40:56 -0500

Dara Kay Cohen is an assistant professor of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and a core faculty member of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center. Her current research examines variations in the use of sexual violence during recent conflicts and draws from fieldwork in Sierra Leone, East Timor, and El Salvador, where she interviewed more than 200 ex-combatants and noncombatants. Here, she answers questions related to her research on the causes of wartime rape . She recently co-authored a policy report for the United States Institute of Peace titled “Wartime Sexual Violence: Misconceptions, Implications, and Ways Forward.”

Obama’s Pragmatic Approach to Mideast

David Ignatius — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 09:25:00 -0500

"Here’s the coldblooded calculation at work as President Obama shapes his foreign-policy agenda: If he took 'full ownership' of the Syria problem through direct military intervention, that’s probably all he could accomplish during his second term — and even then, he might fail in reconciling that country’s feuding sects.

So Obama is moving instead toward a more pragmatic approach in Syria, with the CIA playing a central role, supplemented by the State Department and the U.S. military. The United States will train Syrian rebels and help build governance in areas liberated from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Washington will work harder to coordinate policy with the key regional powers — Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan — whose conflicting agendas have threatened in recent days to pull the Syrian opposition apart," explains David Ignatius in the Washington Post.

In Syria, America’s Fractured Hopes

David Ignatius — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 09:19:19 -0500

"The moderate political and military command structure the U.S. has been trying to foster within the Syrian opposition appears to be fracturing, a victim of bitter Arab regional rivalries.

The regional tension splitting the Syrian rebel movement is between Qatar and Turkey, on one side, and Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Emirates on the other. The former group would like to see an Islamist government headed by the Muslim Brotherhood after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. The latter group opposes any expansion of Muslim Brotherhood influence into Syria, fearing that the movement could spread from there to endanger Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E," writes David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

Worries About a ‘Failed State’ in Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 14:09:42 -0500

"Growing chaos in the liberated areas of northern Syria is convincing some members of the Syrian opposition that the country will become a 'failed state' unless an orderly political transition begins soon to replace President Bashar al-Assad.

This stark analysis is contained in an intelligence report provided to the State Department last week by Syrian sources working with the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Describing the situation in the area from Aleppo to the Turkish border, where Assad’s army has largely disappeared, the report draws a picture of disorganized fighters, greedy arms peddlers and profiteering warlords," writes David Ignatius in The Washington Post.

In Egypt, the Kids Are Not All Right

David Ignatius — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 13:26:20 -0500

"If you’re trying to understand the rampaging soccer fans who have become a political force in the new Egypt, you might consult Anthony Burgess’s 1962 novel 'A Clockwork Orange.'

The book is about a chaotic future shaped by roving gangs of 'droogs' (Burgess’s imaginary word for young male toughs). Led by Alex, the droogs get stoned on milk-and-drug cocktails and then commit brutal acts of what Burgess called 'ultra-violence,'" warns David Ignatius or the Washington Post.

The Long Hot Arab Summer

Nawaf Obaid — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 09:59:30 -0500

"The so-called Arab Spring has ushered in a great deal of hope that a number of Arab states might begin to develop and engender more socially responsive, economically prosperous and politically progressive indigenous conditions," writes Nawaf Obaid.

"Unfortunately, in the nine Arab nations I analyze here -Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, Sudan, Jordan and Iraq - this does not seem to be the case. Indeed, one might say that some or all of these nations are far worse off than they were before their social upheavals."

Real Steps For a Post-Assad Syria

David Ignatius — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 11:20:09 -0500

"The Obama administration and the Syrian opposition are beginning to grapple seriously with the core problem in Syria, which is how to topple President Bashar al-Assad without creating a political vacuum in which terrorists, warlords and regime die-hards could thrive," writes David Ignatius for the Washington Post.

Wartime Sexual Violence: Misconceptions, Implications, and Ways Forward

Dara Kay Cohen, Amelia Hoover Green and Elisabeth Jean Wood — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 09:54:57 -0600

Wartime rape is neither ubiquitous nor inevitable. The level of sexual violence differs significantly across countries, conflicts, and particularly armed groups. Some armed groups can and do prohibit sexual violence. Such variation suggests that policy interventions should also be focused on armed groups, and that commanders in effective control of their troops are legally liable for patterns of sexual violence they fail or refuse to prevent.

What Path Now For Syria?

David Ignatius — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 14:22:06 -0600

"Syrian sources caution that the battlefield advances may accelerate movement toward a breakup of the country, as Alawite supporters of the regime retreat to their ancestral homeland in the northwestern region around Latakia. And there’s no sign that either Assad or his Russian patrons are paying any more than lip service to a political settlement," warns David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

The Hard Work Ahead of John Kerry in Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 15:15:40 -0600

"John Kerry’s first task as secretary of state should be to develop a coherent policy for Syria, where U.S. sanctions are proving counterproductive, the fighting around Damascus is deadlocked, the economy is in ruins and the country is headed toward a sectarian breakup," writes David Ignatius.

Involving Russia in Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 15:08:41 -0600

"Syria is the world’s most intractable and dangerous problem. But two ideas emerged on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that could draw Russia into a more constructive role in solving the crisis, rather than allowing it to remain an obstructionist bystander," wirtes David Ignatius for the Washington Post.

Bibi’s Choice After Election Will Set Course for Israel

Shai Feldman — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 17:00:31 -0600

"In the aftermath of next week’s Israeli elections, Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu will face the decision of his political life," Shai Feldman writes. "What kind of governing coalition he chooses to form will affect Israel for years to come. One option will effectively end hopes of a two-state solution to Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians and deepen its isolation. The other could open the door to negotiations and better relations with Europe and the United States."

Raised on Hatred

Ayaan Hirsi Ali — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 12:00:21 -0600

Ayaan Hirsi Ali writes, "As a child growing up in a Muslim family, I constantly heard my mother, other relatives and neighbors wish for the death of Jews, who were considered our darkest enemy. Our religious tutors and the preachers in our mosques set aside extra time to pray for the destruction of Jews."

How Tribalism Stunts African Democracy

Calestous Juma — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 14:26:31 -0600

"...[I]t is becoming clear that issues such as infrastructure — energy, transportation, irrigation, and telecommunication — and youth employment are emerging as common themes in African politics irrespective of ideological differences. The predominance of such issues will select for pragmatic leadership over ideology. It is therefore not a surprise that African countries are increasingly electing engineers as presidents."

The Never-Ending War in the Middle East

David Ignatius — Mon, 26 Nov 2012 12:32:38 -0600

"The most depressing aspect about the latest Gaza war is that it dramatizes this 'no-exit' aspect of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Wars recur every four or five years, but they never seem to settle anything. The Israelis pound the Palestinians until they accept a cease-fire, but it’s temporary. The emotional state of war continues," Writes David Ignatius of the Washington Post.