Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Russia and the Former Soviet Union

Expanded and Accelerated HEU Downblending: Designing Options to Serve the Interests of All Parties

Matthew Bunn — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:23:27 -0500

Accelerating and expanding the downblending of highly enriched uranium (HEU) beyond the current 500-ton U.S.-Russian HEU Purchase Agreement would have significant security benefits. Russia will still have large quantities of HEU not needed for military purposes after 500 tons of HEU has been blended to low-enriched uranium (LEU). But no agreement to expand and accelerate the downblending of Russian or U.S. excess HEU will succeed unless it is structured in a way that serves the interests of all sides. Russia has made clear that it has no interest in extending the HEU Purchase Agreement on its current terms. This paper outlines key Russian, U.S., and industry interests relating to expanded and accelerated HEU downblending.

Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict

Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 23:24:05 -0500

The historical record indicates that nonviolent campaigns have been more successful than armed campaigns in achieving ultimate goals in political struggles, even when used against similar opponents and in the face of repression. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to win legitimacy, attract widespread domestic and international support, neutralize the opponent's security forces, and compel loyalty shifts among erstwhile opponent supporters than are armed campaigns, which enjoin the active support of a relatively small number of people, offer the opponent a justification for violent counterattacks, and are less likely to prompt loyalty shifts and defections. An original, aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 is used to test these claims. These dynamics are further explored in case studies of resistance campaigns in Southeast Asia that have featured periods of both violent and nonviolent resistance.

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The Window of Vulnerability That Wasn’t: Soviet Military Buildup in the 1970s—A Research Note

Pavel Podvig — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 20:12:31 -0500

The Soviet strategic modernization program of the 1970s was one of the most consequential developments of the Cold War. Deployment of new intercontinental ballistic missiles and the dramatic increase in the number of strategic warheads in the Soviet arsenal created a sense of vulnerability in the United States that was, to a large degree, responsible for the U.S. military buildup of the late 1970s and early 1980s and the escalation of Cold War tensions during that period. U.S. assessments concluded that the Soviet Union was seeking to achieve a capability to fight and win a nuclear war. Estimates of missile accu¬racy and silo hardness provided by the U.S. intelligence community led many in the United States to conclude that the Soviet Union was building a strategic missile force capable of destroying most U.S. missiles in a counterforce strike and of surviving a subsequent nuclear exchange. Soviet archival documents that have recently become available demonstrate that this conclusion was wrong. The U.S. estimates substantially overestimated the accuracy of the Soviet Union's missiles and the degree of silo reinforcement. As the data demonstrate, the Soviet missile force did not have the capability to launch a successful first strike. Moreover, the data strongly suggest that the Soviet Union never attempted to acquire a first-strike capability, concentrating instead on strategies based on retaliation.

100 Grams (and Counting...): Notes from the Nuclear Underworld

Michael Bronner — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:08:26 -0500

This report on the 2006 seizure of weapon-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) in Georgia, by journalist Michael Bronner, provides new insights on both nuclear smugglers and those trying to stop them.

Separatism's Final Country

Richard N. Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 12:54:01 -0500

"Muller argues that ethnonationalism is the wave of the future and will result in more and more independent states, but this is not likely. One of the most destabilizing ideas throughout human history has been that every separately defined cultural unit should have its own state. Endless disruption and political introversion would follow an attempt to realize such a goal. Woodrow Wilson gave an impetus to further state creation when he argued for "national self-determination" as a means of preventing more nationalist conflict, which he believed was a cause of World War I...."

Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order: The Role of the IAEA

Graham Allison and Matthew Bunn — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 15:47:29 -0500

The high-level Commission of Eminent Persons advising the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that meeting the current nuclear challenges and seizing the current opportunities will require a fundamentally reinvigorated global nuclear order, featuring a strengthened IAEA with "additional authority, resources, personnel, and technology." Without a "bold agenda" of steps to strengthen the nuclear order, the Commission warned that there were real risks that terrorists might get a nuclear bomb, that a nuclear accident might occur, or that, as the UN High-Level Panel warned, the world could suffer "a cascade of nuclear proliferation." Preventing such events, the Commission emphasized, is essential for nuclear energy to grow enough to contribute to mitigating climate change, making safety, security, and nonproliferation essential foundations for nuclear energy's future.

Safety, Security, Safeguards: Enabling Nuclear Energy Growth

Matthew Bunn — Sun, 25 May 2008 15:36:35 -0500

Matthew Bunn presented "Safety, Security, Safeguards: Enabling Nuclear Energy Growth" to the Global Nuclear Future Workshop at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences Cambridge, Mass.

Turkmenistan under Niyazov and Berdymukhammedov

Robert Rotberg — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:43:58 -0500

May 6, 2008

A monument of Turkmenistan’s former autocratic ruler, Saparmurat Niyazov, will be removed from the center of the country’s capital, the New York Times reported on Monday, May 5, 2008. The removal was ordered by Turkmenistan’s current president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. What seems to be a symbolic move away from the repression that has plagued Turkmenistan is more likely the removal of one autocratic legacy to make room for another.

Should and Can the FMCT Be Effectively Verified?

Hui Zhang — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:16:37 -0500

Hui Zhang argues that an effective universal Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) would make an important contribution to nuclear disarmament, the nonproliferation regime, and the prevention of nuclear terrorism. However, such a FMCT must have a credible verification regime. Dr. Zhang suggests that it should be technically feasible to establish an effectively verifiable FMCT at a reasonable cost, while protecting national security secrets.

Separating Tibet and the Olympics

Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 00:08:06 -0500

"Some people believe it is fair to vent their grievances with China, but don't see any unfairness in depriving China and its people of the dream to host the Games. In both 1936 and 1948, Chinese Olympian athletes had to detour through Asia to raise fund for their trips by performing in competitions. They ended up exhausted and defeated in the Olympics. It would be equally unfair to deprive the world's athletes of their dreams and the chance to compete in the most important global athletic competition."

The Risk Of Nuclear Terrorism — And Next Steps To Reduce The Danger

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 12:20:43 -0500

Dr. Bunn’s testimony to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs of the United States Senate urges a global campaign to ensure that every nuclear weapon and every cache of potential nuclear bomb material worldwide is secured against the kinds of threats terrorists and criminals have demonstrated they can pose. Bunn highlights the good and bad news about the risk of nuclear terrorism, and assesses the probability of a nuclear terrorist attack. Bunn then proposes several steps to reduce the risk of a nuclear terrorist attack

Russian and Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Plans in Space

Pavel Podvig and Hui Zhang — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 15:57:16 -0500

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences called upon Pavel Podvig and Hui Zhang to consider what consequences would develop if the United States continues to pursue the weaponization of space and how China and Russia would respond, and what would be the broader implications for international security.

Workshop Ponders: Post-Kyoto, What Next?

Sasha Talcott — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 19:11:14 -0500

"The project is examining ideas that are similar to Kyoto’s top-down approach, though stronger, as well as approaches that are substantially different. Key ideas in play range from indexing emissions targets to economic growth, to bottom-up approaches, such as linking together the actions of a number of countries. One of the project’s key goals is to persuade the countries of the world not only to look at ideas similar to the Kyoto Protocol, but also to look at ideas that are very different in structure."

The Transfer of Power in Russia

Graham Allison — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 13:37:28 -0500

March 14, 2008

Though the outcome of the presidential election in Russia was a foregone conclusion, many questions remain about when and how which powers will be transferred from whom to whom. Also included below are speculations from Russian colleagues about what the new administration and cabinet may look like.

Oil for Nukes — Mostly a Bad Idea

Matthew Fuhrmann — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 16:49:05 -0600

"...In 1975, France signed an agreement with Iraq authorizing the export of a research reactor and highly enriched uranium. According to French officials at the time, their aim was to obtain a permanent and secure oil supply from a country that provided 20 percent of its oil.

It worked. But it also had tremendous consequences for international and regional security."

Iceland's Minister Cites Climate's Impact on International Security

Susan M. Lynch — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 13:43:12 -0600

"The interests of the High North, both locally and globally, are a trans-Atlantic issue that can only be dealt with as part of a strong and realistic security policy and maritime strategy on the part of NATO," concluded Icelandic Minister of Justice Bjorn Bjarnason at an International Security Program–sponsored lecture last fall. While the Cold War's end saw the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iceland, climate change has reconfigured the security, economic, and geopolitical profile of the Arctic with Iceland retaining its geo-strategic importance.

Putin Deserves Credit for Russia's Resurgence

Graham Allison and Brigadier General (ret.) Kevin Ryan — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 13:28:52 -0600

December 19, 2007

Time magazine has named Russian President Vladimir Putin its Person of the Year for 2007. Belfer Center experts Graham Allison and Brigadier General (ret.) Kevin Ryan weigh in on his selection.

U.S. Primacy, Eurasia's New Strategic Landscape, and the Emerging Asian Order

Alexander Vuving — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 12:37:57 -0600

This paper argues that the current structure of international power in Asia is transitional. But neither hegemony nor multipolarity will likely be the next Asian order. The paper then assesses the prospects of the emerging regional order in Asia in terms of four options: bipolarity, the East Asian Community, U.S.-China condominium, and shared leadership. The paper concludes by discussing how Southeast Asian countries should prepare for the future strategic environment.

Climate Change and Iceland's Role in North Atlantic Security

Björn Bjarnason — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Björn Bjarnason is Minister of Justice for the Republic of Iceland, and a number of his responsibilities relate to domestic and external security — analogous to those of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. His lecture addressed security issues relating to maritime activity in the North Atlantic and the changing profile of these maritime security issues due to climate change and the increased exploitation of oil and gas in the Arctic.

Global Forecast: The Top Security Challenges of 2008

Carola McGiffert and Craig Cohen — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 17:46:50 -0600

This volume of essays showcases CSIS's collective wisdom on the most important security issues facing America in 2008—the major political, military, and economic challenges likely to have strategic implications for the nation. Some of these challenges depend on political developments in other countries, while others hinge on U.S. actions. Some are regional in focus; others have transnational or global reach. All have the potential to expand into full-scale crises and must be watched and managed carefully.

Energy Supply and Demand in Eurasia: Cooperation between EU and Iran

Abbas Maleki — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 20:35:26 -0500

Energy diversification has emerged as one of the most important priorities for a majority of the European countries and the EU. Growing energy demand in Europe combined with a high reliance on Russia as an energy producer have led the EU to look to the Caspian Sea region for alternative energy resources, especially in natural gas. Iran has the 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world and could assist Europe in diversifying supplies. This article argues that there is substantial potential for energy cooperation between Iran and the European countries, particularly Turkey. Increased Iranian participation in the Eurasian energy market, both as consumer and producer, could lead to other benefits including economic development and more efficient energy extraction.

Tajiks Wrestle with Identity and Islam

Susan Sypko — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

When asked about the greatest difference between Muslims in Tajikistan and Muslims in other countries, Davlatmo Ismailova — or “Fatima,” as she prefers to be called—tells me that other Muslims have more freedom. Fatima would know. She is suing Tajikistan’s Ministry of Education for not allowing her to wear the hijab to her university classes.

Playing Favorites on Dictators Robs U.S. of High Ground

Robert Rotberg — Sun, 07 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

October 7, 2007

Myanmar (formerly Burma) is among the four most repressive countries on Earth, and President Bush is right to strengthen sanctions against the junta of aging generals who have pummeled protesting monks in their monasteries. But what about equally odious regimes with which Washington maintains cordial relations despite appalling human-rights records?

Ukraine Imports Democracy: External Influences on the Orange Revolution

Michael McFaul — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The United States and the European Union spend roughly $1.5 billion per year on democracy promotion, but how effective are such external efforts? As the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine demonstrates, for such efforts to succeed, local actors must want democratic change; foreign attempts to "export" democracy are likely to fail in the absence of domestic consumers. In the Ukraine case, external assistance played a direct, causal role in restricting some aspects of President Leonid Kuchma's power while increasing some aspects of the opposition's power. Examples include efforts to help strengthen local institutions, boost independent media, mobilize voters, and expose electoral fraud.

Global Fissile Materials Report 2007

Mon, 01 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Over the past six decades, our understanding of the nuclear danger has expanded from the threat posed by the vast nuclear arsenals created by the superpowers in the Cold War to encompass the proliferation
of nuclear weapons to additional states and now also to terrorist groups. To reduce this danger, it is essential to secure and to sharply reduce all stocks of highly enriched uranium and separated plutonium, the key materials in nuclear weapons, and to limit any further production.

The mission of the IPFM is to advance the technical basis for cooperative international policy initiatives to achieve these goals.

Disposition of Excess Highly Enriched Uranium

Matthew Bunn and Anatoli Diakov — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

This chapter describes the progress of the Russian and U.S. HEU disposition programs and how they could be expanded and accelerated. It also provides a brief update on the progress of the international programs to clean out and dispose of civilian HEU. The quantities of HEU involved are much smaller than those in the weapons programs but civilian sites are typically much less secure than military ones. Cleaning them out may therefore contribute more to reducing the overall danger of nuclear theft.

Disposition of Excess Plutonium

Matthew Bunn and Anatoli Diakov — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

This chapter describes disposition options and assesses the Russian and U.S. programs. The discussion is also relevant to the problem of disposing of the world's growing stocks of separated civil plutonium —especially in the United Kingdom, which currently has no disposition plan.

The Virtues and Vices of Fixed Territorial Ownership

Boaz Atzili — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Today, territorial ownership of states is essentially fixed, in marked contrast to earlier periods in history. This change has affected states in two very different ways. In regions in which most states are socio-politically strong, fixed territorial ownership is a blessing. It enhances peace, stability, and cooperation between states. In regions in which most states are socio-politically weak, however, fixed territorial ownership is largely a curse. It perpetuates and exacerbates states' weakness, and contributes to internal conflicts that often spill overacross international borders.

Nuclear Terrorism FAQ

Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The Nuclear Threat Initiative and project on Managing the Atom answer 21 of the most frequently asked questions about nuclear terrorism.

Thwarting Terrorists: More to Be Done

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"...much progress has been made toward upgrading security for nuclear stockpiles. The bad news is that the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons exist in hundreds of buildings in more than 40 countries, and terrorists are actively trying to get a nuclear bomb or the materials to make one."