Belfer Center Regions

The Trump/Vance Unilateralist Delusion

Belfer Center — Jul 25, 2024

Jul 25, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that if Trump and Vance win in November, it will do enormous long-term damage to America's global position.

The Non-Proliferation Problem

Belfer Center — Jul 9, 2024

Jul 9, 2024

Those harboring doubts about the viability of nuclear non-proliferation ought to consider the lessons of the past 75 years. Even if it proves impossible to contain this catastrophically destructive technology completely, a world with fewer nuclear-armed states is exponentially safer than one with many of them.

Space Technology Advances: Catalysts for Conflict or Pathways for Human Progress?

Belfer Center — Jun 28, 2024

Jun 28, 2024

Ensuring that space remains a domain for peaceful exploration and mutual benefit rather than a new frontier for conflict will significantly depend on the global community's ability to navigate the complex interplay of technological advancements, regulatory frameworks, economic opportunities, and geopolitical challenges.

This paper was written for the final assignment of IGA-250, a Harvard Kennedy School course on emerging technology: security, strategy, and risk.

Reducing Nuclear Dangers

Belfer Center — Jun 20, 2024

Jun 20, 2024

Matthew Bunn argues that governments need help from scientists and engineers both in understanding the dangers that nuclear weapons continue to pose and in finding paths to reduce them.

What the United States Can Learn From China

Belfer Center — Jun 20, 2024

Jun 20, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that Americans who are deeply worried about China's rise should reflect on what Beijing has done well and what Washington has done poorly.

A Just Transition for Coal Regions: Learning from Two Coal Cities in Western China

Belfer Center — Jun 14, 2024

Jun 14, 2024

China produces more than half of the world’s coal and employs more coal workers than any other country. China will need to develop alternative economic opportunities for workers displaced by the transition away from coal. This report examines the experiences of Tongchuan, Shaanxi, and Wuhai, Inner Mongolia in addressing unemployment problems and diversifying their economies, offering lessons for how other coal-producing cities and regions around the world can ensure a just transition for fossil fuel industry workers.

Morality Is the Enemy of Peace

Belfer Center — Jun 13, 2024

Jun 13, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that once governments use moral arguments to justify their positions in international disputes, cutting a deal becomes much harder, even when it would be in everyone's interest.

The End of Soft Power?

Belfer Center — Jun 12, 2024

Jun 12, 2024

Joseph Nye argues that even as the hard power of weapons and armies resurges on the global stage, the cultivation and use of soft power will still hold currency in the twenty-first century.

Integrating Solar Electricity into a Fossil Fueled System

Belfer Center — Jun 12, 2024

Jun 12, 2024

Deploying renewable energy sources is the most promising approach to decarbonizing the power sector in China. However, the intermittency and non-dispatchable nature of wind and solar power pose significant challenges to grid stability, particularly when these sources reach high penetration rates. This study applies a unit commitment model to investigate the economic and environmental performance of load shaving strategies across different scenarios.

What the West Can Learn From Singapore

Belfer Center — Jun 5, 2024

Jun 5, 2024

When asked whether the U.S. government works, most Americans say no. According to recent polling by Ipsos, more than two-thirds of adults in the United States think the country is going in the wrong direction. Gallup reports that only 26 percent have confidence in major U.S. institutions, such as the presidency, the Supreme Court, and Congress. Nearly half of Americans aged 18 to 25 say that they believe either that democracy or dictatorship “makes no difference” or that “dictatorship could be good in certain circumstances.” As a recent Economist cover story put it: “After victory in the Cold War, the American model seemed unassailable. A generation on, Americans themselves are losing confidence in it.”

When Actions Speak Louder Than Words: Adversary Perceptions of Nuclear No-First-Use Pledges

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Would the world be safer if the United States pledged to never use nuclear weapons first? Supporters say a credible pledge would strengthen crisis stability, decrease hostility, and bolster nonproliferation and arms control. But reactions to no-first-use pledges by the Soviet Union, China, and India suggest that adversaries perceive pledges as credible only when the political relationship between a state and its adversary is already relatively benign, or when the state’s military has no ability to engage in nuclear first use against the adversary.

Biden's Foreign-Policy Problem Is Incompetence

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that those who fetishize credibility typically assume all that is needed is sufficient resolve. This overlooks the other key ingredient— competence.

America Still Retains a Soft Power Advantage over China

Belfer Center — May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Joseph Nye posits that an open civil society that allows protest can be a soft power asset.

US-China Cooperation Remains Possible

Belfer Center — May 6, 2024

May 6, 2024

Joseph S. Nye advocates for identifying areas for cooperation between the United States and China such as climate change and public health.

Appeasement Is Underrated

Belfer Center — Apr 29, 2024

Apr 29, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that rejecting diplomacy by citing Neville Chamberlain's deal with the Nazis is a willfully ignorant use of history.

Kyrgyzstan in Crisis: A Geopolitical Juncture

Belfer Center — Apr 29, 2024

Apr 29, 2024

Kyrgyzstan is currently at a critical geopolitical juncture in which it is forced to
confront its longstanding ties with Russia against a backdrop of internal and external
pressures towards autocracy. Once celebrated as the ‘island of democracy’ in Central
Asia, the small nation faces significant challenges in light of internal authoritarian
tendencies and external pressure following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022. This report, therefore, examines the role of Kyrgyzstan within the
global democracy versus autocracy debate that has intensified in the past two years
and assesses President Japarov’s neutrality with regards to Russia’s invasion and
Bishkek’s shifting allegiances.

This report relies on a qualitative methodology that builds on field research conducted
in Kyrgyzstan in August 2023. As such, this report incorporates interviews with
Kyrgyz civil society organizations and other stakeholders working on issues
including, but not limited to, democratization, corruption, human rights, media, and
the rule of law. The report presents an in-depth analysis of the Russian influence with
regards to the Kyrgyz political system, civil society, and strategic relationship with
Moscow, underpinned by the historical context of Kyrgyz-Russian relations.

Is America in Decline?

Belfer Center — Apr 17, 2024

Apr 17, 2024

Joseph Nye argues that episodes of "declinism" say more about popular psychology than geo-political analysis, but they also show how the idea of decline touches a raw nerve in American politics. China is not an existential threat to the United States unless U.S. leaders make it one by blundering into a major war.

How to Prevent a War Over Taiwan

Belfer Center — Apr 8, 2024

Apr 8, 2024

Joseph Nye argues that the "one China" formula, if combined with other measures to bolster deterrence against any sudden acts of aggression, can still help to keep the peace.

Negotiating with North Korea: Key Lessons Learned from Negotiators' Genesis Period

Belfer Center — Apr 3, 2024

Apr 3, 2024

Only a small handful of people in the world have sat at the negotiating table with the North Koreans and extensively interacted with them. Yet, this knowledge is fragmented and has not been collected or analyzed in a systematic manner. This report captures the findings from in-depth, one-on-one interviews with former senior negotiators from the United States and South Korea, who gained unique knowledge about North Korean negotiating behavior by dealing directly with their high-level North Korean counterparts.

These negotiators collectively represent a body of negotiation experience and expertise starting from the early 1990s to late 2019, when North Korea ceased all negotiations with the United States. During that time, the conditions for productive negotiation changed dramatically – indeed, the conditions for the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework negotiations were much more favorable than during the Six-Party Talks of the mid-2000s or the Season of Summits during 2018-2019. For the “Negotiating with North Korea: Key Lessons Learned from Negotiators’ Genesis Period” project, a spotlight was placed on former senior negotiators’ early-stage experience preparing for and engaging in negotiations with the North Koreans. In doing so, tacit knowledge was captured to serve as a resource for future negotiators to inform and accelerate their own genesis period.

It's Not Too Late for Restrained U.S. Foreign Policy

Belfer Center — Mar 14, 2024

Mar 14, 2024

Stephen Walt writes that those who favor foreign policy restraint believe the United States should trade and invest in other countries, encourage other states to do the same, and be open to managed immigration instead of building walls in a fit of xenophobia.