Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Strategy and national security

How American Treaty Behavior Threatens National Security

Antonia Chayes — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:39:47 -0500

In recent years, American treaty behavior has produced growing concern among both allies and less friendly nations. On such fundamental issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, human rights, civil liberties, environmental disasters, and commerce, the United States has generated confusion and anger abroad. Such a climate is not conducive to needed cooperation in the conduct of foreign and security policy. Among U.S. actions that have caused concern are the failure to ratify several treaties; the attachment of reservations, understandings, and declarations before ratification; the failure to support a treaty regime once ratified; and treaty withdrawal. The structural and historical reasons for American treaty behavior are deeply rooted in the United States' system of government and do not merely reflect superpower arrogance.

Peace with Syria?

Chuck Freilich — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 12:02:57 -0500

"...While it is clear that withdrawal is the price of peace, disagreement over the Golan's precise delineation is what led to the talks' failure in the past. Syria demands a return to the 1967 lines, Israel to the 1923 mandatory border.

Under the 1923 demarcation, the recognized basis for all Mideast negotiations, the Golan ends just meters east of the Jordan River and Sea of Galilee. Between 1948 and 1967, however, Syria encroached upon Israeli territory, with two enclaves along the Jordan and a strip on the lake’s northeastern shore. The 1967 lines would thus give Syria more than 100% of the internationally recognized Golan, a claim to the lake's water and end full Israeli access around it...."

The Path through Pakistan to a Shorter War on Terror

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:00:04 -0500

In the 'epicenter of terrorism,' democracy will benefit from an ease in US military pressure.

Report of the Strategic Security Issues Delegation to Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC)

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:08:19 -0500

Full text of the trip report from PDP's Track II meetings in Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC).

U.S. Worry Grows over Pakistan's Tribal Peace Deal

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:34:47 -0500

May 6, 2008

Jackie Northam of NPR interviews Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, regarding the new Pakistani government's negotiations with militants tied to al Qaeda.

Preventing Terrorist Attacks: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom

Erik J. Dahl — Mon, 05 May 2008 13:40:45 -0500

Why do terrorist attacks frequently succeed, even though later investigations almost always show that warnings had been available but were either misunderstood or ignored? Conventional wisdom, as seen in the 9/11 Commission Report, holds that disasters such as the 9/11 attacks have been caused by failures of analytical imagination, a lack of long-term strategic intelligence on the threat, and organizational limitations that prevent the U.S. intelligence community from being able to “connect the dots” of the existing intelligence.

PDP Co-Director Carter Participates in Harvard Oil Shockwave Simulation

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:54:15 -0500

PDP Co-Director Carter participates in a high-profile crisis simulation examining the economic and security implications of America’s dependency on oil.

Actions Now for the Day After: Findings of the Preventive Defense Day After Project

Dr. Ashton B. Carter — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:56:55 -0500

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter testifies before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

PDP Co-Director Carter testifies before Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Tue, 15 Apr 2008 14:17:09 -0500

PDP Co-Director Dr. Ashton B. Carter testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs at its hearing on "Nuclear Terrorism: Confronting the Challenges of the Day After."

Free: College Curriculum Package Simulates Oil Crisis

Eric Rosenbach — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:00:54 -0500

Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE), in collaboration with the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, has created a free college curriculum box set that includes all of the materials needed to conduct an energy crisis simulation in your classroom. The exercise is based on Oil ShockWave™, SAFE's one-of-a-kind oil crisis simulation, which has featured participants such as Defense Secretary Robert Gates, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author Dan Yergin and former director of the CIA R. James Woolsey.

Review Panel on Future Directions for Defense Threat Reduction Agency Missions and Capabilities to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and The Honorable Robert G. Joseph — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 10:52:37 -0500

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter and the Honorable Robert G. Joseph co-chaired a Review Panel on Future Directions for DTRA Missions and Capabilities to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).

The Transfer of Power in Russia

Graham Allison — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 13:37:28 -0500

March 14, 2008

Though the outcome of the presidential election in Russia was a foregone conclusion, many questions remain about when and how which powers will be transferred from whom to whom. Also included below are speculations from Russian colleagues about what the new administration and cabinet may look like.

Burns Calls for More US Engagement with Iran

Shafique Jamal — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 10:25:17 -0500

March 12, 2008

Nicholas Burns spoke March 11 in the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum, labeling the top challenges facing the world today as global climate change, trafficking in women and children, international drug and crime cartels, and terrorist groups with access to chemical and biological weapons. This last challenge motivated the focus on Iran.

Recovering American Leadership

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 13:06:03 -0600

"Leaders are those who help groups create and achieve shared goals. Traditionally, the leaders in international politics have been the most powerful states. However, while hard military power counts for more in the context of international politics than it does in democratic domestic politics, even in international relations conquest, or pure coercion, is not leadership, but mere dictation. Disproportionate power, sometimes called 'hegemony', has been associated with leadership, but appeals to values and ideology also matter, even for a hegemon...."

New Iran IAEA Report: Reading Between the Lines

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 08:08:14 -0600

February 28, 2008

With the International Atomic Energy Agency scheduled to release its much-anticipated report on Iran within the next few days, Graham Allison offers his insight and analysis — as well as questions that remain unanswered.

Iceland's Minister Cites Climate's Impact on International Security

Susan M. Lynch — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 13:43:12 -0600

"The interests of the High North, both locally and globally, are a trans-Atlantic issue that can only be dealt with as part of a strong and realistic security policy and maritime strategy on the part of NATO," concluded Icelandic Minister of Justice Bjorn Bjarnason at an International Security Program–sponsored lecture last fall. While the Cold War's end saw the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iceland, climate change has reconfigured the security, economic, and geopolitical profile of the Arctic with Iceland retaining its geo-strategic importance.

Communicating With Intent: The Department of Defense and Strategic Communication

Lindsey Borg — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 12:18:29 -0600

The Department of Defense's (DoD's) development of strategic communication processes, a supporting organizational structure, and an institutional culture change began in earnest in 2006. The broad, operational view of communication presents many opportunities for the DoD; it also presents many areas demanding attention if the department is to realize its aim of positive strategic effects in the information and cognitive domains.

This paper examines the DoD's development of strategic communication, concentrating specifically on the implications, opportunities, and threats associated with the public information environment. The paper does not present a prescription for tactics to win near-term battles, but rather a review of current efforts to build strategic communication capacity and considerations that demand attention to advance this capability for long-term, strategic successes.

Disavowing the Iran NIE: Smoke Screens or Smoking Guns?

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 11:55:49 -0600

"US policymakers, too, will have to give increasing thought to the options for living with a nuclear Iran, as well as to Israel's considerations. How the US engages with Israel and others regarding the NIE, will have a major effect on crucial decisions they will have to make in the coming months, as well as the long term prospects for containing Iran's nukes."

Pakistan Election Update: Election Day

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 10:16:38 -0600

February 18, 2008

Xenia Dormandy writes from Pakistan that elections "appear to have been in large part peaceful, notwithstanding some being delayed due to security threats and some bombings at polling stations. While the results are still being counted and a formal tally will not be out for some while, informally, we are likely to know the results even this evening."

Pakistan Political Stability

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 13:25:03 -0600

Since March 2007, tensions in Pakistan have been rising: the political instability surrounding both the presidential and parliamentary elections is commingling with the increase in militant activity within Pakistan proper, which led to around 60 suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2007. Following Benazir Bhutto's assassination on December 27, the extremists have upped the ante, perhaps hoping to disrupt the February 18 elections. Is Pakistan becoming the world's "most dangerous nation"?

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter participates in Munich Conference on Security Policy

Jeffrey Kim — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 16:23:08 -0600

From February 8-10, 2008, PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter participated in the 44th Munich Conference on Security Policy (also known as Wehrkunde).

Iran Eyes the China Card

Kayhan Barzegar — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 14:15:26 -0600

"...China’s fast-growing economy and its extensive demand for Iran’s energy sources have reinforced Iran’s inclination to advance further economic and political-strategic cooperation with China. Today, one of Iran’s strategic goals is to bind its energy-rich resources to the South-Asia region via the Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline (IPI), extending the pipeline to China’s markets in future years."

Wedge Strategy, Balancing, and the Deviant Case of Spain, 1940–41

Timothy Crawford — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 22:01:53 -0600

It is hard to imagine that any British leader in 1940 — let alone Winston Churchill — would venture to appease another Fascist dictator in Europe. But when it came to British relations with Franco's Spain Churchill doggedly pursued a wedge strategy that hinged on offers to reward and accommodate Madrid. And the results were impressive. As Britain faced the Nazi menace alone in 1940–41, Spain's government remained non-belligerent, despite it's ideological affinity and historical debt to the Axis powers, and despite its opportunity to re-claim Gibraltar and parts of Morocco with Nazi help. This surprising outcome was no minor feat, for Spain's non-belligerence in 1940 had enormous implications for the future course and duration of the conflict. The deviant case of Spain in 1940 is thus important not only because leading alliance theories do not explain it, but also because it made a big difference in the biggest war of the 20th century. This article revisits the history of this critical juncture of the war, and sets forth a theoretical framework for understanding the role of wedge strategy in the case, and in international security more generally.

The Elections Must Go Ahead

Hassan Abbas — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 08:33:42 -0600

Without credible elections, restoration of the independent judiciary and effective curbs on the activities of the country's intelligence agencies in internal affairs, Pakistan cannot be rescued from a certain slide into more chaos. Pakistan's history is full of cover-ups and Bhutto's murder is proving to be no different.

Bhutto's Assassination: Update

Xenia Dormandy — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 11:59:01 -0600

December 28, 2007

Bhutto leaves three children, the oldest 19, and a husband. She also leaves Pakistan's one truly national party without a leader, a party that throughout its history has only been led by Bhuttos. Typical to Pakistani politics, Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party is personality driven. It is not clear yet whether there is one person who stands above the others in the party who can pick up the pieces, draw in the popular support and lead the party into elections in 10 days. Her children are too young yet to pick up the baton.

Pakistan Elections: Analysis. What Constitutes Free and Fair?

Xenia Dormandy — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 13:14:15 -0600

December 26, 2007

It is hard to make the argument that despite the state of emergency, the arrests of lawyers, the new Supreme Court, the fact the Sharif can not run and that Bhutto may not be able to lead even if she wins, the media restrictions, the continued militant suicide attacks, not to mention the general assorted political machinations (such as persuading people to change parties etc.), that with all of this, the elections will be free and fair.

Smaller parties making it big? The impact of MQM and JUIF in the upcoming elections?

Haroon Ullah — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 13:03:30 -0600

December 26, 2007

With the ensuing boycott of Jamaat Islami and other smaller parties, the MQM (Muttahida Quami Movement) and religions parties such as JUI (Jamaat Ulema) could stand to benefit from their absence. In Pakistan, the smaller political parties have often been able to play the 'third' party role effectively as power brokers in forming government within the assembly.

Boycott politics: The absence of Jamaat Islami and Tehrik-e Insaf

Haroon Ullah — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 12:54:32 -0600

December 26, 2007

A month ago there was talk of a potential boycott of the upcoming elections by Pakistan's political parties. In the recent meetings of the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) in Lahore, the PML-N decided to contest the elections, while two members of the APDM, the Jamaat Islami and Tehrik-e Insaf decided to maintain their stance not to contest the polls. What will be the effect of these two parties not participating?

Anxiety, a ‘wounded’ military and the election build-up

Haroon Ullah — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 12:46:02 -0600

December 26, 2007

The electoral season is in full swing in Pakistan , and politicians are scrambling to rally support for their candidacy. Driving around Lahore , one sees a multitude of political party candidate signs and banners littering the major roadways. From rickshaw drivers to shop owners, everyone seems to have an opinion.

Stop Getting Mad, America. Get Smart

Richard Armitage and Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"...security threats are no longer simply military threats. China is building two coal-fired power plants each week. U.S. hard power will do little to curb this trend, but U.S.-developed technology can make Chinese coal cleaner, which helps the environment and opens new markets for American industry

In a changing world, the United States should become a smarter power by once again investing in the global good — by providing things that people and governments want but cannot attain without U.S. leadership."