Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - South Asia

Terrorism, War, or Disease? Unraveling the Use of Biological Weapons

Anne L. Clunan, Peter R. Lavoy and Susan B. Martin — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 20:55:10 -0500

The use of biological warfare (BW) agents by states or terrorists is one of the world's most frightening security threats but, thus far, little attention has been devoted to understanding how to improve policies and procedures to identify and attribute BW events. Terrorism, War, or Disease? is the first book to examine the complex political, military, legal, and scientific challenges involved in determining when BW have been used and who has used them.

Policies for Advanced Coal Technologies in India (and China)

Ananth Chikkatur — Tue, 06 May 2008 15:00:10 -0500

In a presentation to the World Bank, Ananth Chikkatur discusses the role of coal in the Chinese and Indian power sectors, focusing on policies for incentivizing technological innovation in the coal sector in those countries, and suggesting possible roles for the World Bank regarding coal power in both countries as well.

U.S. Worry Grows over Pakistan's Tribal Peace Deal

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:34:47 -0500

May 6, 2008

Jackie Northam of NPR interviews Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, regarding the new Pakistani government's negotiations with militants tied to al Qaeda.

Burma: Poster Child for Entrenched Repression

Robert Rotberg — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:32:18 -0500

May 6, 2008

In late April, President Bush declared that the upcoming elections in Burma would not be “free, fair, or credible” and that the U.S. would impose further sanctions on the state-owned business sector, in order to increase pressure on the ruling junta.

South Asia, A New Center of Democracy?

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 00:00:06 -0500

Thus far this year we’ve seen elections in Pakistan, Bhutan, and Nepal. Elections have been promised in Bangladesh and the Maldives later this year, and scheduled in India and Afghanistan for next year. Yet, barring India, we rarely think of these nations as democracies. Could this then be the next wave?

No Sign until the Burst of Fire: Understanding the Pakistan-Afghanistan Frontier

Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason — Fri, 02 May 2008 11:28:42 -0500

The portion of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area dominated by Pashtun tribes poses the greatest challenge to U.S. national security interests. Here, extremist groups such as the Taliban and al-Qaida continue to enjoy safe haven. The Pashtun, whose tribal structures have been subverted since the 1970s, represent a unique cultural challenge that the U.S. foreign policy establishment has failed to appreciate. To reverse the trend of radicalization in this area, the United States and the Afghan government must strengthen and rebuild the Pashtuns’ tribal structures while reducing the external pressures on them. Maintaining the current policy of extending the central government into this region will only foment insurgency among a proto-insurgent people.

The Rise of Afghanistan's Insurgency: State Failure and Jihad

Seth G. Jones — Fri, 02 May 2008 10:54:30 -0500

In 2001 U.S. and Afghan forces overthrew the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Less than a year later, insurgents began a sustained effort to bring down the government of Hamid Karzai. Fueling this insurgency was the collapse of governance following the ouster of the Taliban. To counter the insurgents, the government must extend governance into Afghanistan’s rural areas and establish effective law and order. Also needed is greater cooperation by the Pakistani government to capture or kill jihadists and undermine their ideological support.

India's Key Foreign Policy Issues

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 12:00:59 -0500

April 7, 2008

In recent years, India's military, diplomatic and economic energies have expanded far beyond Nehru's Non-Aligned position. But what does that mean for India, its region, and the United States?

Pakistan PM Has Good Credentials, Limited Authority

Hassan Abbas — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 12:00:38 -0500

"Gilani is leader of a coalition government with a strong mandate but facing difficult problems. It is also committed to policies that could cause turbulence, particularly reinstating judges deposed by President Pervez Musharraf. Gilani's position is further complicated by political circumstances, with the leaders of the dominant parties in the ruling coalition directing policy from outside parliament."

Cleaner Power in India: Towards a Clean-Coal-Technology Roadmap

Ananth Chikkatur and Ambuj Sagar — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 11:43:37 -0500

Investigating the role of coal in India's energy sector, Chikkatur and Sagar emphasize the need for a technology roadmapping process. They highlight the interlinkages between technology innovation and public policy and provide an analytical framework to help delineate the kinds of questions that scholars and practitioners need to ask in addressing India's coal sector.

India-Iran Relations: Key Security Implications

Xenia Dormandy and Ronak D. Desai — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 09:00:12 -0500

While India and the United States have embarked on a campaign to strengthen their bilateral relations, as symbolized by the proposed US-India civilian nuclear deal, it appears as though New Delhi has similarly begun to pursue a more robust relationship with another major power: Iran. The two states have recently expanded cooperation in a number of key areas, including counterterrorism, regional stability, and energy security. What are the implications of this "New Delhi-Tehran Axis" for the United States, and how should Washington respond to growing ties between India and Iran?

Workshop Ponders: Post-Kyoto, What Next?

Sasha Talcott — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 19:11:14 -0500

"The project is examining ideas that are similar to Kyoto’s top-down approach, though stronger, as well as approaches that are substantially different. Key ideas in play range from indexing emissions targets to economic growth, to bottom-up approaches, such as linking together the actions of a number of countries. One of the project’s key goals is to persuade the countries of the world not only to look at ideas similar to the Kyoto Protocol, but also to look at ideas that are very different in structure."

Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements Research Workshop

Mon, 17 Mar 2008 22:05:09 -0500

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements hosted a research workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on March 13–14, 2008. The workshop brought together key scholars and other thinkers working on international climate change policy from a variety of disciplines, including economics, political science, and law. Together, they addressed issues such as how to persuade developing countries — among them China and India — to sign on to an international agreement, how to link climate policy with international trade, and how to effectively address deforestation, which accounts for 20 percent of global emissions. Attendees presented their initial research findings and got feedback on their ideas. The workshop was preceded by a reception and dinner at the Harvard Faculty Club, which featured Todd Stern, a partner at the law firm WilmerHale, as a keynote speaker. The final drafts of the research will be published in early fall 2008.

Reform of Pakistan's Intelligence Services

Hassan Abbas — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 19:37:37 -0500

"The primary mission of intelligence services in a modern democratic state is to collect, analyze, evaluate, and pass on foreign intelligence to the government to assist it in making decisions related to national security. Their standard task also includes producing a range of studies that cover virtually any topic of interest to national-security policymakers. Depending on the resources, they use electronic means as well as human sources and, if necessary, undertake covert actions at the direction of the chief executive. A covert action is defined as an act to influence political, economic or military conditions abroad, while keeping in view some ethical considerations. Counter-intelligence operations mainly work to guard against espionage from foreign intelligence agencies in the country. They are also expected to effectively protect the secrets of its sources and methods. The role of intelligence services is to only report information and analysis and not to make policy recommendations."

Legalizing Nuclear Abandonment: The Determinants of Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty Ratification

Matthew Fuhrmann and Xiaojun Li — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 13:48:54 -0500

Matthew Fuhrmann and co-author Xiaojun Li examine when and why states ratify regional nuclear weapons free zone (NWFZ) treaties.

Police Reforms: Agenda of Change

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 20:24:58 -0600

"...Besides leading to bad governance and a deplorable law and order situation in the country, police failures also have compounded the threat of religious extremism and terrorism. Poor data collection on crime and criminals and inadequate analytical capabilities hamper effective law enforcement. In many instances, banned militant organisations continued with their publications and in some cases wanted criminals, and terrorists changed their party affiliations (hurriedly joining groups that were not under government scrutiny after theirs were banned) and the police remained clueless. Here the police was also handicapped as many militant groups were producing "freedom fighters" for Kashmir and Afghanistan and had working relations with the intelligences services, and hence police officials were reluctant to go after some of these elements thinking that they might be the assets of some "other state institution." Things are reported to be progressively changing in this sphere lately, but the serious challenge remains...."

Heart vs. Mind and Monitoring Elections in Pakistan

Xenia Dormandy — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 12:00:05 -0600

Xenia Dormandy reflects on her experience monitoring the February 18 parliamentary elections in Pakistan.

Security and Intelligence

Hassan Abbas — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 13:59:36 -0600

"The Pakistani Army positively contributed towards the holding of free elections on Feb 18, but it cannot be expected to do the job of law enforcement endlessly. Dependence on the military for such tasks ultimately persuades its leadership to increase the army’s involvement in the political domain, and in the process that follows such thinking, Pakistan loses many years. Generals like Waheed Kakar and Jahangir Karamat are rare, and given some recent developments it seems that Pakistan is lucky to have another of their kind in the form of the new chief, Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. This golden opportunity should not be lost (like before) to nurture and groom civilian institutions to stand on their own feet."

La République de Dieu

Charles G. Cogan — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 16:08:39 -0600

La République de Dieu is a collection of essays on the idea of God; on evangelism ("La République de Dieu"); on Islamic fundamentalism ("L'Islam médiéval"); and followed by empirical chapters analyzing a number of conflicts between the Muslim and non-Muslim world: Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Arab/Israeli.

Pakistan Elections

Xenia Dormandy — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 12:00:42 -0600

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, gave a Shorenstein lecture on the Pakistan parliamentary elections at the National Press Club on February 21, 2008.

Is India Ready for CTL Fuels?

Ananth Chikkatur and Sunita Dubey — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 14:21:56 -0600

Faced with high oil prices and increasing oil imports to meet the country’s rising demand for transportation fuels, there is now a perception that India’s energy security is threatened. While the production of biodiesel has now become a national mission, CTL fuels are also gaining currency as a commercially attractive proposition because of the potentially cleaner characteristics.

Pakistan Elections: A Clear Verdict

Hassan Abbas — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 11:18:59 -0600

"As for Musharraf, he is living in a fool's paradise if he thinks he is going to be a father figure to the next prime minister of Pakistan. The new government will be under tremendous public pressure to bring back the deposed judges, and that could sound a death knell for the Musharraf presidency. For the army, which is distancing itself from Musharraf already, institutional interests, saving prestige and influence, will be more important than rescuing a president who continues to shoot himself in the foot. The west in general — and Britain and the US in particular — must show patience while democratic forces settle; at least as much patience as they showed with military dictators. This is the very least that the people of Pakistan earned yesterday."

Pakistan Election Update: Election Day

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 10:16:38 -0600

February 18, 2008

Xenia Dormandy writes from Pakistan that elections "appear to have been in large part peaceful, notwithstanding some being delayed due to security threats and some bombings at polling stations. While the results are still being counted and a formal tally will not be out for some while, informally, we are likely to know the results even this evening."

Bangladesh's model

Robert Rotberg — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 10:50:07 -0600

February 17, 2008

With Pakistan on edge ahead of Monday's parliamentary elections and opponents vowing to oust beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf, this is a good time to look at how another nearby predominantly Muslim country is faring under military rule.

Pakistan: Opposition Parties Are Poised to Win Poll

Hassan Abbas — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 00:00:48 -0600

"While there is a considerable risk that the elections will be rigged and that poor security will deter voting, pro-Musharraf parties will be swept from power. The PPP is expected to secure the most votes, raising the prospect of a grand coalition of parties united in opposition to the president. Stable government will depend on their ability to work together, as well as with Musharraf, for as long as he remains in power."

Pakistan Political Stability

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 13:25:03 -0600

Since March 2007, tensions in Pakistan have been rising: the political instability surrounding both the presidential and parliamentary elections is commingling with the increase in militant activity within Pakistan proper, which led to around 60 suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2007. Following Benazir Bhutto's assassination on December 27, the extremists have upped the ante, perhaps hoping to disrupt the February 18 elections. Is Pakistan becoming the world's "most dangerous nation"?

Vegetable Oil Based Biofuels in India

Nicholas Kukrika — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 15:24:16 -0600

February 7, 2008

This paper addresses two key questions: What is the economic potential of biofuel development in India? And what are the obstacles to this development? It traces the economics at each stage in the production chain – from harvesting to processing to transportation; provides an overview of the industry’s economics and details the requirements at each stage of the value chain for the industry to reach its potential; and shows how the vegetable oil biofuels sector can provide substantial benefits to the rural poor in India while addressing the risks and threats of the biofuel industry development.

A Pakistani Revolution

Xenia Dormandy — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 11:12:32 -0600

The lack of predictability and transparency through both the presidential and parliamentary elections have compounded the confusion, the instability, and Musharraf's loss of credibility. Is Pakistan becoming "the world's most dangerous nation"?

Flooding Out and Drying Up in Southasia

Sunita Dubey and Ananth Chikkatur — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:37:05 -0600

In this essay, Dubey and Chikkatur describe how climate change is affecting the region from the Maldives to Pakistan, and what steps government and individuals can take to mitigate against it and adapt to it. They explore issues of food and economic security, climate injustice, and the need for sustainable lifestyles.

A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army's New Limited War Doctrine

Walter C. Ladwig III — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 13:32:58 -0600

India’s inability to coerce Pakistan into halting its support for insurgents in Kashmir, as well as its experience in past conflicts with Pakistan, led it to develop Cold Start—a new offensive military doctrine that will allow it to mobilize quickly and retaliate in a limited manner. Although India is far from realizing its goal, this break from a traditional defensive strategy deserves scrutiny. A history of misperception and mistrust between India and Pakistan, poor intelligence, and domestic insecurity suggests that limited war could quickly escalate to the nuclear threshold, posing a serious risk to the stability of the subcontinent and the rest of the world.