Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - South Korea

Terrorism, War, or Disease? Unraveling the Use of Biological Weapons

Anne L. Clunan, Peter R. Lavoy and Susan B. Martin — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 20:55:10 -0500

The use of biological warfare (BW) agents by states or terrorists is one of the world's most frightening security threats but, thus far, little attention has been devoted to understanding how to improve policies and procedures to identify and attribute BW events. Terrorism, War, or Disease? is the first book to examine the complex political, military, legal, and scientific challenges involved in determining when BW have been used and who has used them.

Global Forecast: The Top Security Challenges of 2008

Carola McGiffert and Craig Cohen — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 17:46:50 -0600

This volume of essays showcases CSIS's collective wisdom on the most important security issues facing America in 2008—the major political, military, and economic challenges likely to have strategic implications for the nation. Some of these challenges depend on political developments in other countries, while others hinge on U.S. actions. Some are regional in focus; others have transnational or global reach. All have the potential to expand into full-scale crises and must be watched and managed carefully.

Securing the Bomb 2007

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn provides a comprehensive assessment of efforts to secure and remove vulnerable nuclear stockpiles around the world, and a detailed action plan for reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. Securing the Bomb 2007 was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). The full report, with additional information on the threat of nuclear terrorism, is available on the NTI website.

Reassessing Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: Competition, Congruence, and Transformation

Amitav Acharya and Evelyn Goh — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Since the 1990s, Asia-Pacific countries have changed their approaches to security cooperation and regional order. The end of the Cold War, the resurgence of China, the Asian economic crisis, and the events of September 11, 2001, have all contributed to important changes in the Asia-Pacific security architecture.

Modes of Regional Conflict Management: Comparing Security Cooperation in the Korean Peninsula, China-Taiwan, and the South China Sea

Rosemary Foot — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"Analysts focusing on the prospects for inter-state war or peace in the Asia-Pacific invariably have pointed to the Korean Peninsula (KP), China/Taiwan (CT), and the South China Sea (SCS) conflicts as the potential "flash points" or "hot spots" of the region...."

Revisiting North Korea's Nuclear Test

Hui Zhang — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Hui Zhang re-examines the North Korean explosion on October 9, 2006. His research suggests that the test was likely not a failure if Pyongyang had planned for a yield of 4 kt, as it told Beijing prior to the event.

From Prediction to Learning: Opening Experts' Minds to Unfolding History

Richard Herrmann and Jong Kun Choi — Sat, 31 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0500

No expert in the academic or intelligence community can predict the future, but they should at least be able to accurately analyze and quickly update their beliefs to craft effective policy. Too often, experts not only forget what they used to believe, but also see little connection between explaining the past and predicting the future. A two-year case study of fifteen Korean experts examines their initial predictions about security on the Korean Peninsula and demonstrates how a Bayesian approach helped them first to empirically analyze their theories, and then to successfully update them based on events that actually transpired.

Changes Afoot on the Diplomatic Stage

Seyom Brown — Sun, 25 Feb 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"POLICY ANALYSTS in Cambridge and policy wonks in Washington are all astir , trying to ascertain whether the anti-US rhetoric by President Vladimir Putin of Russia at a conference in Munich was mainly for his home audience or signaled a resurgent rivalry with the United States...."

Carter and Perry lead U.S. delegation to South Korea for Track II security dialogue

Thu, 22 Feb 2007 00:00:00 -0600

From February 18-22, 2007, PDP Co-Directors Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry led a U.S. delegation to the Republic of Korea to meet with prominent South Korean politicians, experts, and potential presidential candidates.

Ashton Carter appointed to Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice’s International Security Advisory Board

Mon, 06 Nov 2006 00:00:00 -0600

November 6, 2006

At a November 6, 2006 swearing-in at the State Department, Preventive Defense Project Co-Director and Kennedy School of Government professor Ashton B. Carter became a member of Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice’s International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) which is charged with providing advice on a wide range of issues affecting national security.

Globalization and its Effects: Introduction and Overview

Richard N. Rosecrance, Etel Solingen and Arthur A. Stein — Thu, 31 Aug 2006 00:00:00 -0500

"Globalization has the effect of incapacitating states as autonomous units."

The "Acceptance" of Globalization

Luisita Cordero and Richard N. Rosecrance — Thu, 31 Aug 2006 00:00:00 -0500

"International relations are not simply a state of anarchy. There are profound elements of hierarchy in the international system, and even authority relationships...."

Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks

John Park — Sat, 01 Oct 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Despite extensive diplomatic efforts to facilitate the six-party talks, domestic policy constraints, differing priorities, and conflicting historical analogies among each of the countries have brought vastly differing perspectives to the multilateral negotiating table.

Nuclear Material Protection, Control, and Accounting in China: An Evaluation of the Current System and Recommendations for Improvements

Hui Zhang — Sat, 01 Jan 2005 00:00:00 -0600

Nuclear Material Protection, Control, and Accounting in China: An Evaluation of the Current System and Recommendations for Improvements

America's Neoconservatives -- All Muscle, No History?

Thomas J. Wright — Wed, 15 Sep 2004 00:00:00 -0500

Thomas Wright examines America’s ideological hawks and their post-Iraq future.

Proliferation for Profit

Micah Zenko — Fri, 12 Mar 2004 00:00:00 -0600

Op-ed about Pakistan-based nuclear poliferation network

Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and Dr. William J. Perry — Sun, 28 Feb 1999 00:00:00 -0600

"The most important book by any ex-Clinton official."

-Thomas L. Friedman, The New York Times (April 16, 1999)

Stopping a North Korean Invasion: Why Defending South Korea is Easier than the Pentagon Thinks

Michael O'Hanlon — Wed, 01 Apr 1998 00:00:00 -0600

How likely is a North Korean invasion of South Korea? And what would be its chances of success? The author begins with a claim that there is “a strong body of evidence and a wide array of analytical methods [that] argue…that the Defense Department’s official image of war does not apply to the Korean peninsula.”

Using Economic Sanctions to Prevent Deadly Conflict

Elizabeth S. Rogers — Wed, 01 May 1996 00:00:00 -0500

What are the prospects for using economic sanctions to prevent deadly conflict?