Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Trade

Ending North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions: The Need for Stronger Chinese Action

Hui Zhang — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:32:10 -0400

North Korea has recently taken a series of provocative steps to challenge the international community. If unchecked, North Korea will surely increase the quantity and quality of its arsenal. Even worse, once Pyongyang has more than enough weapons for its deterrent, it might be tempted to sell the surplus. The longer the crisis lasts, the more nuclear capable North Korea will become and the more difficult it will be to roll back Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. A nuclear North Korea would put China's national interests at great risk. Beijing can increase pressure on Pyongyang, using positive inducements and punitive measures. The chances are low, however, that Beijing will radically adjust its North Korea policy, at least for the near future. Beijing will continue to maintain its bottom-line approach, avoiding war on the Korean peninsula and an abrupt collapse of the Kim regime. From China's perspective, these scenarios must be avoided at all costs because they are contrary to China's primary interest in a stable environment.

The Return of Economic Nationalism

Eric Kaufmann — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:13:23 -0400

"...[E]conomic nationalists sacrifice material consumption for the national pride that comes with being a creditor nation that owns foreign assets. On this logic, the U.S. trade imbalance cannot be rectified by the marketplace alone....This sticks in the throat of those who prize national self-sufficiency and the moral fiber that comes from saving more than one spends....Traces of economic nationalism survive in America. It is no accident that the most successful U.S. vehicles are trucks, powerful symbols of rural and working-class masculine patriotism. That GM and Chrysler are being bailed out is partly because their products have been immortalized in song and film as national icons."

We Need a Debate on Europe

Azeem Ibrahim — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:30:10 -0400

"...[M]ore of us want to leave than ever before. More than half want the UK to leave the EU but keep trading links, according to a recent BBC survey. More authoritative polling from the Economist still shows that over the last fourteen years, the number of us wanting to loosen the UK's ties to the EU has also risen to over 50 per cent. In the BBC's survey, a full 84 per cent agreed that Britain should vote before transferring any more power to the EU....nobody born after 1957 has ever been able to vote on it. Even those who voted to stay in in 1975 did not realise just how many regulations we would subsequently have to follow, and how much they would cost British business."

Stop Bribery Everywhere

Ben Heineman — Tue, 19 May 2009 11:08:27 -0400

May 19, 2009

"The most immediate and direct step for U.S. companies is to enlist (and test) the new administration to use its muscle to prevent U.S. business and labor from being disadvantaged by "protectionist" nonenforcement of the international commitment to stop developed-world bribery in other industrialized nations."

New York Business Roundtable: Key Takeaways

Sasha Talcott — Mon, 18 May 2009 12:17:26 -0400

With the U.S. Congress currently debating whether and how to establish a domestic cap-and-trade system to address climate change, the outcome of those discussions is critical to global climate negotiations in Copenhagen and beyond, according to a roundtable discussion on post-Kyoto climate policy hosted by Barclays Capital on April 30, 2009, with insights from the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements.

The business roundtable in New York, which included participants from a range of industries and key government officials, looked at the implications of U.S. domestic climate policy for the international process, the current state of the Waxman-Markey bill in the U.S. Congress, and the future of national and global carbon markets.

Policy for Energy Technology Innovation

Laura Diaz Anadon and John P. Holdren — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:16:04 -0400

"The United States ought to be the leader of the world in the energy technology innovation that is needed. It has the largest economy, uses the most energy (and within that total the most oil), has made the largest cumulative contribution to the atmospheric buildup of fossil carbon dioxide that is the dominant driver of global climate change, has a large balance of payments stake in competitiveness in the global energy technology market as well as a large stake in the worldwide economic and security benefits of meeting global energy needs in affordable and sustainable ways, and possesses by many measures the most capable scientific and engineering workforce in the world. The actual performance of this country in energy-technology innovation, however, has been falling short by almost every measure...."

Oil Security and the Transportation Sector

Henry Lee — Fri, 01 May 2009 21:48:41 -0400

"This chapter proposes to answer five fundamental questions: What exactly is the oil security problem, and how serious is it going forward? Why has it emerged at this point in time, and why has it been so difficult for the U.S. government to take the actions needed to mitigate it? Finally, what alternative policies are likely to be effective as the United States attempts to improve its oil security in the future?"

Global Environment and Trade Policy

Jeffrey Frankel — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 10:25:18 -0400

Global environmental goals and trade goals can be reconciled. Globalization and multilateral institutions can facilitate environmental protection rather than obstruct it, if they are harnessed in the right way. Perhaps most urgent is that negotiators working on a sequel to the Kyoto Protocol agree on guidelines to govern precisely how individual countries can and cannot use trade measures in pursuit of carbon mitigation.

Which Globalization Will Survive?

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 14:33:00 -0400

"The world economy will shrink this year for the first time since 1945, and some economists worry that the current crisis could spell the beginning of the end of globalization....Globalization has several dimensions, and, though economists all too often portray it and the world economy as being one and the same, other forms of globalization also have significant effects — not all of them benign — on our daily lives."

Frazer offers lessons on transformative U.S.-Africa policy

Beth Maclin — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 12:51:09 -0400

Former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer gave a public address," Solutions: A Transformative U.S.-Africa Policy," at Harvard Kennedy School's John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum on April 7, 2009. Belfer Center Director Graham Allison moderated the event.

Listen to "The Cross-Border Impact of Violent Events" with DI Fellow, Mohamad Al-Ississ

Mohamad M. Al-Ississ — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 10:18:36 -0400

March 11, 2009

In a Dubai Initiative Brown Bag Seminar on February 18, 2009, DI Fellow Mohamad Al-Ississ discussed the cross-border impact of violent events.

Spotlight: Niall Ferguson

Sasha Talcott — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 16:27:08 -0400

Niall Ferguson is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors.

Climate Team Suggests Post-Kyoto Ideas

Sasha Talcott — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 13:27:11 -0400

A new report from the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements outlined several promising ideas for successors to the Kyoto Protocol ... guidance on the most intractable challenges facing global climate negotiators, including participation by developing countries, how to reduce deforestation, and how to prevent a "collision" between climate policy and international trade law

Pursuing the Spirit of Niu

Queenie Qian and Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 10:48:02 -0500

"A trade war between two of the largest economies will only lead to an accelerated deterioration of the global economic situation. Trade has played a significant role in world economic growth. It accounted for 23 percent of the global economy in 1998 and has skyrocketed to 32 percent today. To revive an economy in which trust and credit have collapsed, rebuilding confidence and letting international trade flow are key. No wonder Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain urged keeping global free trade alive to weather the stumbling global economy."

Priorities Before the President

Xenia Dormandy — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 09:56:20 -0500

In order to create a truly strategic relationship, the Obama administration will need to go beyond the civil nuclear cooperation, drawing on areas of common concern and interest.

Fresh Hope for US-China Cooperation

Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 16:31:35 -0500

"No matter what change the new administration will bring about, there are some immutable factors in US-Chinese relations. First is mutual dependence; bilateral trade is a good example. China and the United States have become each other's second largest trade partner. In recent years, the US rate of investment in China remains higher than the average US rate elsewhere abroad. The second factor is mutual interest. There are many US foreign policy priorities — be it North Korean and Iranian nuclear issues or the financial crisis and climate change — that need China's partnership."

Bribery Warrants Global War

Ben Heineman — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:09:02 -0500

"Anti-corruption rhetoric exceeds commitment and accomplishment, especially in emerging-market nations. Building durable, transparent and accountable institutions in the highly diverse developing world -- with failed, failing, fragile and rising states -- is key, though complex and time-consuming."

Slow but Steady on Kashmir

Paul Staniland — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 22:19:26 -0500

Instead of special envoys and summits, the U.S. should adopt a "quiet diplomacy" approach that offers incentives to India and Pakistan for making tangible, if small, progress on the ground in Kashmir. The U.S. should offer to help fund sustained local policy initiatives in both Indian and Pakistani-administered Kashmir aimed at improving governance and encouraging economic exchange and the movement of people across the Line of Control. An initiative focused on local government and civil society lacks the drama of shuttle diplomacy and grand bargains, but can actually improve the daily lives of Kashmiris while giving them more say over their own governance.

Iran's Foreign Policy in Post-invasion Iraq

Kayhan Barzegar — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 15:10:42 -0500

"Many at the grassroots level of Iranian society want good, stable relations between Iran and Iraq because of their cultural-religious priorities, which include having the freedom to visit the sacred cities of Karbala and Najaf. This strong interest exists on the Iraqi side, too. In summer 2006, for instance, some 3,000 visas were issued daily by Iranian consulates in Baghdad, Basra and Najaf for Iraqi pilgrims to visit Mashhad and Qom and other sacred places inside Iran. Since the opening of borders following the removal of the Baathist regime, the Iranian government has been under pressure to preserve an adequate amount of cooperation with Iraqi authorities to secure the routes of pilgrims to the Shia areas and to provide public services. Simultaneously, the families of those who lost their lives in the Iran-Iraq War would like the government to pursue a policy towards Iraq that ensures that the victims were not killed in vain. It is worth noting that the painful memory of the war pervades Iranian society, thus affecting policy options. Trade with Iraq is also a priority. Iranian merchants and businessmen consider certain parts of Iraq, especially predominantly Shia areas such as Basra, to be ideal markets for Iranian exports. Some estimates consider the range of economic activities about $5 billion annually."

Somali Piracy Reflects a Troubling World

Rami Khouri — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 11:01:53 -0500

"Human beings should have as much right to security and the protection of the rule of law as ships carrying oil, tanks, cars and tennis shoes. That is a resonate lesson behind the Somali piracy -- at least in the Arab world."

Global Environmental Policy and Global Trade Policy

Jeffrey Frankel — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 17:06:55 -0500

"The global climate regime and the global trade policy regime are on a collision course. National efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) instill among environmentalists fears of leakage and among businesspeople fears of lost competitiveness. Policy-makers respond to these fears. In 2008, legislative attempts in both Washington, DC, and Brussels to enact long-term targets for reduced emission of GHGs included provisions for possible penalties against imports from countries perceived as non-participating. Trade measures, if well designed, could in theory be WTO-compatible...."

Economic Realities Must Guide Africa's Constitutional Reform Efforts

Beth Maclin — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 15:02:46 -0400

"African countries need new constitutional orders to cope with modern economic challenges, Calestous Juma said at a recent lecture....A major challenge is based in the constitutions and laws left behind for the newly liberated countries. 'What was being negotiated as independence was really an exercise in constitutional continuity from the colonial period through independence,' Juma said....While there is enormous pressure on African countries to focus on economic programs, they are unable to because the governmental framework left behind did not integrate the economic role of the colonizer into the new role of president."

China into Africa: Trade, Aid, and Influence

Robert Rotberg — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 10:21:44 -0400

“Two myths have been concocted by the West on Africa: that the Western impact on Africa has been benign while China’s record in Africa has only been negative. The truth in both areas is more complex. This volume, China into Africa, brings out the complexity of the China story in Africa and illustrates why more balanced assessments are needed on Africa’s relations with the world”

--Kishore Mahbubani

Dean, the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore

Exporting Mass Destruction? The Determinants of Dual-Use Trade

Matthew Fuhrmann — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 19:58:56 -0400

This study applies well-known arguments on the effect of conflict, alliances, and democracy on international trade to identify the determinants of dual-use trade. Dual-use commodities are those that can be used in weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs or in legitimate civilian applications. This article advances a theory suggesting that governments seeking to maximize the gains from dual-use trade will promote exports to countries where there are security guarantees and restrict exports to countries where security threats exist.

Identities, Interests and the Resolution of the Abkhaz Conflict

Ondrej Ditrych — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:25:49 -0400

"The recent crisis in Abkhazia reveals a fundamental qualitative change in the conflict in which the balance among three main actors is shifting, and increasingly the conflict plays a more important role in the triangular relations between Georgia, Russia and the West. The search for a new equilibrium in the conflict, one that would be an optimal outcome for the actors involved, will require rethinking the mutually constitutive roles (identities) and interests they want to assume with respect to the conflict and the entire South Caucasus...."

China's Quick Fall, Slow Return to Glory

Philip Auerswald — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 08:20:25 -0400

"...China's resurgence extends to a domain in which the country has historically been weak: science and technology. Twenty years ago, China was not on the list of the top 10 exporters of high-tech products; today it is number one. The United States remains the world leader with regard to research and development investments, but in China such spending has for over a decade been growing at a remarkable 19 percent per year — more than six times the US rate...."

Chinese, Russian Stall Tactics on Iran

Joshua Gleis — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 12:38:07 -0400

"...The Chinese and Russians say they do not support stronger sanctions because they don't believe in their effectiveness. Off the record, however, both countries recognize that any form of sanctions that restrict their own business ventures is not going to stop the Iranians from pursuing their end goal of acquiring nuclear weapons.Thus in the meantime, the Russians and Chinese are angling themselves to maximize the economic benefits of such a precarious state of affairs in the Middle East...."

Corporate Policy Preferences in the EU and the US: Emissions Trading as the Climate Compromise?

Jonas Meckling — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 10:50:02 -0400

Since the agreement of the Kyoto Protocol, business in the EU and the US has been split over the course of climate policy. This article reviews the regulatory preferences of major business associations on both sides of the Atlantic, and assesses whether the transatlantic gap on corporate positioning on climate change is actually narrowing and what the compromise solution might be.

What is the greenback’s sustainable value?

Martin Feldstein — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 10:17:47 -0400

Martin Feldstein explains how the falling dollar impacts the value of the U.S.'s imports and exports in the international market and what needs to happen to stop the dollar from falling further.

Why U.S. Could Lose Out on India Nuclear Trade

Xenia Dormandy — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:00:31 -0400

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed by Brajesh Upadhyay for BBC News on July 11 regarding the implications of the U.S.-India nuclear deal for international trade.