Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Transportation

Can New Market Mechanisms Mobilize Emissions Reductions from the Private Sector?

Axel Michaelowa — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 11:32:21 -0600

Negotiators, business leaders, and others concerned with climate change are attempting to develop market mechanisms that expand and improve upon those provided by the Kyoto Protocol. These "new market mechanisms" might be incorporated into a new international arrangement called for at COP-17 in Durban, South Africa. Dr. Michaelowa explores the paths forward.

The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia

Richard Armitage and Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 05 Sep 2012 13:03:29 -0500

The following report presents a consensus view of the members of a bipartisan study group on the U.S.-Japan alliance. The report specifically addresses energy, economics and global trade, relations with neighbors, and security-related issues. Within these areas, the study group offers policy recommendations for Japan and the United States, which span near- and long-term time frames. These recommendations are intended to bolster the alliance as a force for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

Oil Development in China: Current Status and Future Trends

Linwei Ma, Feng Fu, Zheng Li and Pei Liu — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 18:13:47 -0500

This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China's oil development through system analysis. The authors design three scenarios of China's oil demand in 2030 and analyze policy implications for oil conservation, automotive energy development, and energy security. From their analysis, they draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as controlling total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, enhancing oil conservation in all sectors with the emphasis on road transportation, and increasing investment in oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions.

Oil: The Next Revolution

Leonardo Maugeri — Thu, 31 May 2012 10:11:45 -0500

A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who is now a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s major oil formations and exploration projects.

Climate Change: Efficiency and Equity

Robert N. Stavins — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 15:01:27 -0600

Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Director Robert N. Stavins delivered a presentation titled "Climate Change: Efficiency and Equity," at The Graduate Institute in Geneva, Switzerland, on November 29, 2011. The talk was one in the Geneva Environmental Dialogue Series of public keynote lectures that the Institute holds annually on a theme related to the international environment. The theme for the 2011–2012 term is "Justice and the Environment."

What Next on Climate?

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 08:17:43 -0500

The effort to address climate change stumbled with the failure to pass cap-and-trade. What should happen now? Five experts, including the Harvard Project's Joe Aldy, discuss the future of U.S. climate and energy policy.

Will Electric Cars Transform the U.S. Vehicle Market?

Henry Lee and Grant Lovellette — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 13:15:31 -0500

For the past forty years, United States Presidents have repeatedly called for a reduction in the country's dependence on fossil fuels in general and foreign oil specifically. Some officials advocate the electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet as a path to meeting this goal. The Obama administration has embraced a goal of having one million electric-powered vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015, while others proposed a medium-term goal where electric vehicles would consist of 20% of the passenger vehicle fleet by 2030 — approximately 30 million electric vehicles. The technology itself is not in question; many of the global automobile companies are planning to sell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and/or battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2012. The key question is, will Americans buy them?

Preparing to Ramp up Large-scale CCS Demonstrations: An Engineering-economic Assessment of CO2 Pipeline Transportation in China

Hengwei Liu and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 15:45:19 -0500

An integrated carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) system requires safe and cost-efficient solutions for transportation of the CO2 from the capturing facility to the location of storage. While growing efforts in China are underway to understand CO2 capture and storage, comparatively less attention has been paid to CO2 transportation issues. Also, to the best of our knowledge, there are no publicly available China-specific cost models for CO2 pipeline transportation that have been published in peer-reviewed journals. This paper has been developed to determine a first-order estimate of China's cost of onshore CO2 pipeline transportation.

Enabling Infrastructure

Calestous Juma — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 13:20:09 -0500

"Enabling infrastructure (public utilities, public works, transportation, and research facilities) is essential for agricultural development. Infrastructure is defined here as facilities, structures, associated equipment, services, and institutional arrangements that facilitate the flow of agricultural goods, services, and ideas. Infrastructure represents a foundational base for applying technical knowledge in sustainable development and relies heavily on civil engineering. This chapter outlines the importance of providing an enabling infrastructure for agricultural development."

Do Public Subsidies Sell Green Cars?

C. Edward Huang — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 15:15:43 -0600

One question about the 2009 U.S. "Cash for Clunkers" program is whether it induced consumers to purchase greener vehicles than they would otherwise have purchased. This paper views the program as a natural experiment, which offered higher rebates to consumers buying more fuel-efficient vehicles, and shows that awarding an extra $1,000 on a vehicle made 7.2% of consumers switch. Hence the program - giving away nearly $3 billion - should have drawn many consumers to the subsidized greener vehicles, producing substantial environmental gains. This finding should interest policymakers evaluating similar programs to stimulate the economy while benefiting the environment.

Belfer Center Newsletter Winter 2010-11

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 07:51:06 -0600

The Winter 2010/11 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This issue highlights a major Belfer Center conference on technology and governance, the Center's involvement in the nuclear threat documentary Countdown to Zero, and a celebration of Belfer Center founder Paul Doty.

Transportation Revenue Options: Infrastructure, Emissions, and Congestion

Amanda Sardonis — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 14:00:40 -0500

This recent discussion paper from the Energy Technology Innovation Policy (ETIP) research group is a summary of discussions from the Belfer Center's May 2010 workshop "Transportation Revenue Options," which brought together 27 transportation experts for a two-day workshop to discuss revenue-generating options.

At MIT, Holdren Issues Call for Action on Climate Disruption

James F. Smith — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 13:03:37 -0500

John P. Holdren, President Obama's chief science and technology advisor, draws a grim picture of our world at the end of this century if we fail to start slashing greenhouse gas emissions that are ravaging the global climate. In a lecture at MIT, Holdren issued a call to action, arguing for a package of integrated measures to protect the environment. Holdren is on leave from Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, where he was director of the Science and Technology Public Policy program.

Transportation Revenue Options: Infrastructure, Emissions, and Congestion

Henry Lee, Jose Gomez-Ibanez, C. Edward Huang and Grant Lovellette — Fri, 01 Oct 2010 10:01:16 -0500

The report is a summary of the discussions from a workshop on "Transportation Revenue Options" convened by the Belfer Center in May 2010. The workshop brought together 27 transportation experts for a two-day workshop to discuss three broad revenue-generating options: higher fuel taxes — perhaps supplemented by a carbon tax; fees collected based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT); and congestion fees on major roadways.

Reducing Cars' and Trucks' Carbon Emissions Difficult but Feasible, New Study Finds

Sasha Talcott — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 09:16:22 -0600

March 4, 2010

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — A new study from current and former researchers at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs finds that reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation will be a much bigger challenge than conventional wisdom assumes — requiring substantially higher fuel prices combined with more stringent regulation.

Analysis of Policies to Reduce Oil Consumption and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions from the US Transportation Sector

W. Ross Morrow, Kelly Sims Gallagher, Gustavo Collantes and Henry Lee — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 18:18:19 -0600

Even as the US debates an economy-wide CO₂ cap-and-trade policy the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern. Transportation alone consumes the majority of the US's imported oil and produces a third of total US Greenhouse-Gas (GHG) emissions. This study examines different sector-specific policy scenarios for reducing GHG emissions and oil consumption in the US transportation sector under economy-wide CO₂ prices.

Analysis of Policies to Reduce Oil Consumption and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions from the U.S. Transportation Sector

W. Ross Morrow, Kelly Sims Gallagher, Gustavo Collantes and Henry Lee — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 14:16:17 -0600

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation will be a much bigger challenge than conventional wisdom assumes — requiring substantially higher fuel prices combined with more stringent regulation. This paper finds that reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector 14% below 2005 levels by 2020 may require gas prices greater than $7/gallon by 2020. It also finds that while relying on subsidies for electric or hybrid vehicles is politically seductive, it is ineffective and extremely expensive.

Reducing the U.S. Transportation Sector's Oil Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

W. Ross Morrow, Henry Lee, Kelly Sims Gallagher and Gustavo Collantes — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 09:07:12 -0600

This policy brief is based on Belfer Center paper #2010-02 and an article published in Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 3.

Oil security and the threat of climate disruption have focused attention on the transportation sector, which consumes 70% of the oil used in the United States.
This study explores several policy scenarios for reducing oil imports and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation.

México City Metrobús System Wins 2009 Roy Award

Beth Maclin — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 07:11:54 -0600

"The México City Metrobús, a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system that reduces air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions while improving the quality of life and transportation options in one of the largest cities in the world, received the biannual 2009 Roy Family Award for Environmental Partnership in September."

Q&A with Henry Lee and Kelly Sims Gallagher

Sharon Wilke — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 07:06:58 -0600

As the U.S. debates an economy-wide CO2 cap-and-trade policy, the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern. A new Belfer Center study-"Analysis of Policies to Reduce Oil Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the U.S. Transportation Sector"-concludes that significant reductions in these areas will require much stronger policy initiatives than are currently under consideration. Two of the authors answer questions about their report. Henry Lee is director of the Belfer Center's Environment and Natural Resources Program and Kelly Sims Gallagher is senior associate of the Belfer Center and associate professor of energy and environmental policy at Fletcher School, Tufts University's graduate school of international affairs.

Energy for Change: Introduction to the Special Issue on Energy & Climate Change

John P. Holdren — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:23:30 -0600

"Without energy, there is no economy. Without climate, there is no environment. Without economy and environment, there is no material well-being, no civil society, no personal or national security. The overriding problem associated with these realities, of course, is that the world has long been getting most of the energy its economies need from fossil fuels whose emissions are imperiling the climate that its environment needs."

China's Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Vehicles: Rationale, Policy Process, and Impacts

Hongyan He Oliver, Kelly Sims Gallagher, Donglian Tian and Jinhua Zhang — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:29:10 -0600

"China issued its first Fuel Economy Standards (FES) for light-duty passenger vehicles (LDPV) in September 2004, and the first and second phases of the FES took effective in July 2005 and January 2008, respectively. The stringency of the Chinese FES ranks third globally, following the Japanese and European standards....The Chinese experience is highly relevant for countries that are also experiencing or anticipating rapid growth in personal vehicles, those wishing to moderate an increase in oil demand, or those desirous of vehicle technology upgrades."

Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center Announces 2009 Roy Family Award for Environmental Partnership

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 19:06:45 -0500

September 3, 2009

The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University announced today that the 2009 Roy Family Award for Environmental Partnership will be given to the Mexico City Metrobus, a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system that reduces air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, while improving the quality of life and transportation options in one of the largest cities in the world.

Climate change requires an energy technology revolution, Chu says

Beth Maclin — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 14:31:39 -0500

Secretary of Energy Steven Chu discussed the need for an aggressive national energy policy at a packed John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum event, “Laying the Foundation for the Next Generation of Clean Energy Jobs,” on August 6, 2009. He outlined challenges of global warming and potential strategies that could provide solutions.

In-use Vehicle Emissions in China: Beijing Study

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:29:42 -0500

China's economic boom in the last three decades has spurred increasing demand for transportation services and personal mobility. Consequently, vehicle population has grown rapidly since the early 1990s, especially in megacities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. As a result, mobile sources have become more conspicuous contributors to urban air pollution in Chinese cities.

Tianjin was our first focus city, and the study there took us about two years to complete. Building upon the experience and partnership generated through the Tianjin study, the research team carried out the Beijing study from fall 2007–fall 2008.

Beijing was chosen to be our second focus city for several reasons: it has the largest local fleet and the highest percentage of the population owning vehicles among all Chinese cities, and it has suffered from severe air pollution, partially due to the ever-growing population of on-road vehicles.

Cap-and-Trade: All Cost, No Benefit

Martin Feldstein — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:19:20 -0500

"The Obama administration and congressional Democrats have proposed a major cap-and-trade system aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Scientists agree that CO2 emissions around the world could lead to rising temperatures with serious long-term environmental consequences. But that is not a reason to enact a U.S. cap-and-trade system until there is a global agreement on CO2 reduction. The proposed legislation would have a trivially small effect on global warming while imposing substantial costs on all American households. And to get political support in key states, the legislation would abandon the auctioning of permits in favor of giving permits to selected corporations."

Harvard's Gallagher Discusses New Report on Energy Policy Challenges Facing U.S.

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:32:50 -0500

Will the Obama administration's plan for vehicle emissions standards and auto efficiency affect consumer behavior? During today's OnPoint, Kelly Sims Gallagher, director of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, gives her take on the administration's recent auto emissions announcement and whether it will have any significant effects on the environment. Gallagher, editor of the new report, "Acting in Time on Energy Policy," explains why she believes Congress should consider a variable tax on the price of oil as part of the United States' energy policy.

Obama's Fuel-Efficiency Plan? Not So Efficient

Robert N. Stavins — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:32:05 -0500

"Because CAFE standards increase the price of new cars, the standards have the unintentional effect of keeping older — dirtier and less fuel-efficient — cars on the road longer. This is counterproductive.

Also, by decreasing the cost per mile of driving, CAFE standards — like any energy-efficiency technology standard — exhibit a rebound effect — namely, people have an incentive to drive more, not less, thereby lessening the anticipated reduction in gasoline usage."

Oil Security and the Transportation Sector

Henry Lee — Fri, 01 May 2009 21:48:41 -0500

"This chapter proposes to answer five fundamental questions: What exactly is the oil security problem, and how serious is it going forward? Why has it emerged at this point in time, and why has it been so difficult for the U.S. government to take the actions needed to mitigate it? Finally, what alternative policies are likely to be effective as the United States attempts to improve its oil security in the future?"

Acting in Time on Energy Policy

Kelly Sims Gallagher — Fri, 01 May 2009 18:53:33 -0500

Energy policy is on everyone's mind these days. The U.S. presidential campaign focused on energy independence and exploration ("Drill, baby, drill!"), climate change, alternative fuels, even nuclear energy. But there is a serious problem endemic to America's energy challenges. Policymakers tend to do just enough to satisfy political demands but not enough to solve the real problems, and they wait too long to act. The resulting policies are overly reactive, enacted once damage is already done, and they are too often incomplete, incoherent, and ineffectual. Given the gravity of current economic, geopolitical, and environmental concerns, this is more unacceptable than ever. This important volume details this problem, making clear the unfortunate results of such short-sighted thinking, and it proposes measures to overcome this counterproductive tendency.