Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - United States

A Conservative’s Prescriptive Policy Checklist: U.S. Foreign Policies in the Next Four Years to Shape a New World Order

Robert D. Blackwill — Mon, 09 Jan 2017 09:59:38 -0600

As Donald Trump prepares to enter the presidency, many observers at home and abroad seek to anticipate the outlines of his foreign policy. This essay has a different purpose. Based on the rigorous definition of vital U.S. national interests that follows immediately below,[1] it proposes a prescriptive checklist of U.S. policy steps that would strengthen the domestic base of American external actions; reinforce the U.S. alliance systems in Asia and Europe; meet the Chinese and Russian challenges, while improving the quality of diplomatic exchanges with Beijing and Moscow; reshape U.S. trade policy; gradually pivot from the Middle East to Asia (but not from Europe); maintain the nuclear agreement with Iran; and confront international terrorism more aggressively, but with minimal U.S. boots on the ground in ungoverned areas and without nation building.

Why Obama Was Smart to Kick Out Russian Spies

Calder Walton — Sat, 07 Jan 2017 18:19:18 -0600

"Whatever his reasons, Obama's eviction orders were hardly feckless political grandstanding, and it is important to understand why. History shows that kicking out foreign intelligence officials can yield valuable results—as Western countries proved many times during the Cold War. Even in the delicate world of espionage, sometimes a blunt instrument like mass expulsion is necessary."

Colossal, but Wise?

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 04 Jan 2017 11:19:22 -0600

"The question is not whether the IDF needs the F35, it does....The Air Force is Israel's strategic arm and must be equipped with weapons systems at the very forefront of technology. Nevertheless, it is incumbent upon us that we question how many aircraft truly are needed, when, and what the possible alternative uses of the budgetary resources are."

Would South Korea Really Go Nuclear?

Lami Kim — Fri, 30 Dec 2016 15:19:01 -0600

"Until recently, calls for nuclear armament were considered extremist in South Korean political discourse. However, public support for nuclear armament is growing in South Korea due to North Korea’s nuclear provocations. In a recent Gallup Korea poll, 58 percent supported nuclear armament. If the U.S. security guarantee is not credible in the minds of South Koreans, and nuclear armament is the only way to defend South Korea’s security from North Korea, a nuclear option will seem even more appealing to the public."

A Cherished Moment with JFK

Graham Allison — Thu, 29 Dec 2016 13:30:10 -0600

I suspect you may not be aware of the similarities between Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and President John F. Kennedy.

While most observers will be most impressed by their differences, I note a significant similarity: their determined purposefulness.

Women's Rights Are a National Security Issue

Valerie M. Hudson and Dara Kay Cohen — Mon, 26 Dec 2016 17:06:21 -0600

"Over a decade's worth of research shows that women's advancement is critical to stability and to reducing political violence. Countries where women are empowered are vastly more secure, whether the issue is food security, countering violent extremism or resolving disputes with other nations peacefully."

Iran, US likely to start re-negotiations on nuclear deal

Olli Heinonen — Mon, 26 Dec 2016 15:49:37 -0600

A former IAEA fellow and its deputy director-general has told Mehr News that it should not be surprising if Iran and the US were to start some pre/re-negotiations on JCPOA once Trump takes over as president.

In an interview conducted by Mehr News International Service, Olli Hainonen talked about the possible scenarios for Iran’s nuclear deal once Donald Trump takes over as President of the United States.

The World Can Have Peace and Prosperity, If It Wants

Stephen M. Walt — Fri, 23 Dec 2016 15:47:32 -0600

"The global balance of power is shifting — usually not a promising development, in terms of maintaining peace — and familiar features of the international landscape are increasingly contested. It will take a lot of patient and adroit diplomacy to keep all of these simmering disagreements within bounds. On reflection, this might not have been the best moment to turn U.S. foreign policy over to a combination of amateurs and ideologues."

'Active Measures': A History of Russian Interference in US Elections

Calder Walton — Fri, 23 Dec 2016 12:50:46 -0600

"Both the Soviet Union and its western opponents, the United States and Britain, pursued covert action to interfere in elections during the Cold War. All of this, however, is not just about history: there are policy lessons for today from Britain and America's Cold War experiences."

A Strategic Response to the Russian Hacking Affair

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Fri, 23 Dec 2016 08:41:33 -0600

Paradoxically, the whole affair may have a silver lining if it provides an opening to devise some rules of the game that have been painfully missing from the cyber realm—an outcome possible only if we keep a realistic view of Russia’s perspective.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis on a sustainable path to recovery for Greece

Nicholas Burns — Wed, 21 Dec 2016 13:47:19 -0600

December 21, 2016

Kyriakos Mitsotakis (Harvard BA ’89), president of the Greek opposition party Nea Dimokratia (New Democracy,) laid out his vision for a tough but achievable strategy to revitalize the Greek economy and strengthen the nation’s ties to the European Union in an October 13 seminar.

Sandro Gozi - Italy, the EU and the US: A conversation on transatlantic challenges

Cathryn Clüver — Wed, 21 Dec 2016 13:34:07 -0600

December 21, 2016

Sandri Gozi, Italian Undersecretary of State for European Affairs, joined the Future of Diplomacy Project on November 1 for a discussion titled “Italy, the EU and the US: A Conversation on Transatlantic Challenges.”

Natalie Jaresko dicusses her time as Finance Minister of Ukraine with Harvard's Future of Diplomacy Project

Nicholas Burns — Wed, 21 Dec 2016 13:17:05 -0600

December 21, 2016

Natalie Jaresko (MPP ’89), former Finance Minister of Ukraine, returned to Harvard on October 31^st, 2016 to take part in the Future of Diplomacy Project’s international speaker series. In a public seminar moderated by Faculty Director Nicholas Burns, Jaresko, who currently serves as chairwoman of the Aspen Institute Kyiv, reflected on her time in office from 2014 to 2016. In her two years in office, the Ukrainian government had to contend with the Russian annexation of Crimea, a national debt crisis, widespread governmental corruption, and political instability.

Will the Liberal Order Survive?

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 20 Dec 2016 14:37:06 -0600

"Increasingly, however, the openness that enables the United States to build networks, maintain institutions, and sustain alliances is itself under siege. This is why the most important challenge to the provision of world order in the twenty-first century comes not from without but from within."

Tawakkol Karman, Future of Diplomacy Project Fisher Family Fellow, speaks on human rights at Harvard University

Nicholas Burns — Mon, 19 Dec 2016 15:20:51 -0600

December 19, 2016

Tawakkol Karman, Yemeni activist and recipient of the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize, served as a Fisher Family Fellow with Harvard’s Future of Diplomacy Project. An outspoken and passionate advocate for human rights, she was critical of the inaction of international institutions and developed nations in response to rights violations in the Middle East.

A Blueprint for Donald Trump to Fix Relations with Russia

Graham Allison and Dimitri K. Simes — Mon, 19 Dec 2016 11:55:02 -0600

In a "policy memo" to President-elect Donald Trump, Graham Allison and Dimitri K. Simes write: "The two Chinese characters that make up the word “crisis” can be interpreted as meaning both “danger” and “opportunity.” Russia today offers your administration not only a serious challenge but a significant opportunity.

Russia is no longer the Evil Empire the United States confronted over decades of Cold War. Nonetheless, Russia remains a player whose choices affect vital U.S. interests profoundly across the agenda of global issues. First and foremost, Russia remains the only nation that can erase the United States from the map in thirty minutes.

What Jeff Sessions as attorney general will mean for the Iran Deal

Aaron Arnold — Fri, 16 Dec 2016 08:10:16 -0600

Already, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for the next US attorney general, Jeff Sessions (R-AL), has caused quite a stir over his domestic policy positions, not to mention his checkered past of making racially charged and divisive statements. Few pundits, however, have discussed what Jeff Sessions’ appointment could mean for the Iran Deal—the agreement negotiated last fall, which provides sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program. As the country’s new top cop, Sessions will have sweeping authority to shape the Justice Department’s policies and priorities—some of which have the potential to affect relations with Iran, if indirectly.

Why America was bound to fail in Syria

David Ignatius — Thu, 15 Dec 2016 11:49:10 -0600

December 15, 2016

The fall of Aleppo is a human catastrophe. It’s also a demonstration of the perils of choosing the middle course in a military conflict. Sometimes it’s possible to talk and fight at the same time. But in Syria, the U.S. decision to pursue a dual-track, halfway approach made the mayhem worse.

Lesson one for Rick Perry: The Energy Department doesn’t produce much energy

William H. Tobey — Wed, 14 Dec 2016 09:29:51 -0600

A former governor of Texas – the state that produces more crude oil, natural gas, lignite coal, wind power and refined petroleum products than any other – would seem to be a natural choice for secretary of energy. Yet, assuming he is confirmed by the Senate, Rick Perry will face a paradox.

Russia and Cyber Operations: Challenges and Opportunities for the Next U.S. Administration

Ben Buchanan and Michael Sulmeyer — Tue, 13 Dec 2016 08:30:16 -0600

Russian cyber operations against the United States aim to both collect information and develop offensive capabilities against future targets. Washington must strengthen its defenses in response.

Young Political Thinkers

Amanda J. Rothschild — Mon, 12 Dec 2016 15:35:42 -0600

"Above all, the program encouraged critical thinking and dialogue. Not mentioning this aspect of the program risks undercutting one of its principal achievements: creating a network of young professionals who may disagree on a range of intellectual and political issues but nevertheless seek serious and informed discussion."

It'll be Trump's Job to Face Facts on Russia Hack

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 12 Dec 2016 11:16:15 -0600

"The Trump camp's insistence that the intelligence is not worthy of a deep dive has put it squarely in opposition to a fact-based inquiry supported by scores of nonpartisan intelligence professionals. The consequences of Trump's posture are dangerous for his governing in the future (and are a bit of an insult to those who risk their lives to get information for his daily briefings, which he doesn't attend)."

Seeing Eye to Eye on Corporate Tax Cuts

Martin Feldstein — Mon, 12 Dec 2016 09:35:43 -0600

Tax reform will be the major domestic policy issue of 2017. Although the public debate will no doubt focus on the cuts in personal taxes, overhauling the corporate tax code is economically more important.

Don't Knock Offshore Balancing Until You've Tried It

Stephen M. Walt — Thu, 08 Dec 2016 16:03:27 -0600

"Offshore balancing has not failed in the Middle East because it hasn't been U.S. strategy for almost a generation. The United States did act like an offshore balancer from 1945 to about 1990: It had vital interests in the region and wanted to prevent any state (including the Soviet Union) from controlling the Gulf. But it pursued this goal first by relying on Great Britain (until 1967) and then by turning to local allies like the shah of Iran. After the shah fell in 1979, the United States created the Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) so it could affect the balance of power swiftly and directly and thus deter a possible Soviet foray into the Gulf. But it didn't park the RDF in the Gulf or elsewhere in the region; instead, it kept it offshore and over the horizon and didn't use it until Iraq seized Kuwait in August 1990."

Trump Could Turn Western Values Into a Facade

Alexander Görlach, Constantin Weiss and Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 08 Dec 2016 13:57:33 -0600

"If there is no American power behind those values, they will become a façade, simple rhetoric. It's a matter of combining values with policy and implementation. Take Russia’s invasion of Crimea, for example. Russian President Vladimir Putin stole land from his neighbor using force ― something that is against any post-1945 agreement. Without U.S.-imposed sanctions, Putin surely would have gotten away with it much easier and perhaps would have continued seizing territory."

Brave new world? What Trump and Brexit mean for European foreign policy

Cathryn Clüver — Thu, 08 Dec 2016 10:00:12 -0600

December 8, 2016

On 24 and 25 November 2016 experts from politics and academia, including FDP Executive director Cathryn Clüver, discussed the impact of Brexit on several policy areas in a series of workshops at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin. All events took place under Chatham House rules.

The Kremlin and the US Election

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 06 Dec 2016 12:44:44 -0600

"But what about deterring operations that are not equivalent to an armed attack? There are grey areas in which important targets, say, a free political process, are not strategically vital in the same way as the electrical grid or the financial system. Destroying the latter two could damage lives and property; interference with the former threatens deeply held political values."

The "Great Swap"

Robert C. Stowe — Mon, 05 Dec 2016 15:41:13 -0600

Joseph Aldy proposes a carbon tax and regulatory streamlining as a part of tax reform.

A record number of Indian Americans have been elected to Congress

Ronak D. Desai — Mon, 05 Dec 2016 14:08:12 -0600

December 5, 2016

A record number of Indian Americans were elected to Congress earlier this month, bringing the total number to five in both the House and Senate. ISAP Associate Ronak Desai provides an overview of the Indian presence in Congress and the campaigns that got these indivudals elected.

Why to Embrace 'Nanny State' after Oakland Fire

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 05 Dec 2016 12:18:16 -0600

"...21st century America is a much safer place to exist, work and play than any time in our country's history because government oversight exists. After all, it was the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire in 1911, a fire that killed 146 workers who had no escape route from a factory that had locked doors and overcrowding and whose owners escaped any culpability or liability, that led to the modern-day Labor Department and the advent of worker safety laws."