Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - US foreign policy

Joseph Nye on Smart Power in Iran-U.S. Relations

Joseph S. Nye and Kayhan Barzegar — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:32:33 -0500

This interview elaborates on the applicability of Nye’s theory of “smart power” in the context of the Middle East and particularly Iran. The discussion further pushes the boundaries on how the current U.S policymakers should take into account soft and smart power towards Iran.

Nye: “… if the Americans, in efforts to try to stop the Iranian’s nuclear weapons program, were to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran, they might gain a few years of slowing down the nuclear weapons program but they would lose the whole generation of younger Iranians who would respond in a nationalistic way. So I think that would be a very large cost for a very limited benefit.”

How American Treaty Behavior Threatens National Security

Antonia Chayes — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:39:47 -0500

In recent years, American treaty behavior has produced growing concern among both allies and less friendly nations. On such fundamental issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, human rights, civil liberties, environmental disasters, and commerce, the United States has generated confusion and anger abroad. Such a climate is not conducive to needed cooperation in the conduct of foreign and security policy. Among U.S. actions that have caused concern are the failure to ratify several treaties; the attachment of reservations, understandings, and declarations before ratification; the failure to support a treaty regime once ratified; and treaty withdrawal. The structural and historical reasons for American treaty behavior are deeply rooted in the United States' system of government and do not merely reflect superpower arrogance.

Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz

Caitlin Talmadge — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:54:40 -0500

How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.

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Correspondence: Of Polarity and Polarization

Joseph M. Parent, Joseph Bafumi, Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:09:18 -0500

Joseph Parent and Joseph Bafumi reply to the Fall 2007 International Security article, "Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States," by Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz.

Pakistan Needs More Democracy to Transcend Musharraf

Hassan Abbas — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:17:05 -0500

"Following its recent free elections, Pakistan is rebounding politically. But the euphoria that came with the end of the Musharraf era is wearing off, as the new government faces stark choices. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, democracy is not new to the 60-year-old state, but ethnic cleavages, weak institutions, and religious extremism in the North are perennially destabilizing. And, while the new government settles in and establishes its priorities, the West, especially the United States, must reassess the impact of its past dealings with Pakistan...."

Joseph Nye on Smart Power

Doug Gavel and Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 20:10:38 -0500

The days of American hegemony on the world stage appear to be waning. The rise of other global powers, the diffusion of economic and human capital, and the increasingly powerful influences being exerted by non-state actors — including terrorists — have ushered in a new era in geopolitics. Joseph Nye is university distinguished service professor and Sultan of Oman professor of international relations. He is the author of many books and articles on international relations, including his most recent book, “The Powers to Lead.”

The Path through Pakistan to a Shorter War on Terror

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:00:04 -0500

In the 'epicenter of terrorism,' democracy will benefit from an ease in US military pressure.

Balancing Asia's Rivals

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:36:35 -0500

"...Bush leaves behind a better legacy in Asia. American relations with Japan and China remain strong, and he has greatly enhanced the United States' ties with India, the world's second most populous country....Improved relations between India and the U.S. can structure the international situation in a manner that encourages such an evolution in Chinese policy, whereas trying to isolate China would be a mistake.

Handled properly, the simultaneous rise of China and India could be good for all countries."

Is There a New U.S. Policy for Pakistan?

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:00:20 -0500

"How much will the War on Terror define the new President’s agenda towards Pakistan, as it has President Bush’s? What will this mean for America’s broader policy toward the country, and what are the implications, if any, for India?"

Why Islam Lies at the Heart of Iraq's Civil War

Monica Duffy Toft — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:36:05 -0500

"...[N]ot until 2007 did the Pentagon acknowledge that Iraqi sectarian violence had crossed a threshold to become a civil war.

But policymakers still haven't come to terms with the implications of that fact. If they did, they'd see that a wisely executed withdrawal of US-led forces could well be the surest path to peace. That's because withdrawal is likely to transform the fighting in Iraq into a defensive struggle for power in a nation-state, as opposed to an offensive battle rooted in religion."

Your Government Failed You: Breaking the Cycle of National Security Disasters

Richard Clarke — Thu, 29 May 2008 10:11:03 -0500

May 29, 2008

It's not just Bush and Cheney that are to blame. The system is broken. That's the message in this provocative sequel to Against All Enemies. When Richard Clarke apologized for 9-11, he never thought that there would be so many more government failures in so short a time, but climate change, Katrina, the struggle with al Qaeda, the insecurity in cyberspace, and the failure of homeland security all bespeak a larger problem, a systemic failure. Clarke documents the failures and suggests solutions for making government work better in its most important job, protecting us.

Israel's Friends and the Path to Peace

John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 20 May 2008 20:39:33 -0500

This letter was written in response to Jeffrey Goldberg's op-ed, "Israel's 'American Problem' " which was published on May 18, 2008.

Future of Japan-US Alliance

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 12 May 2008 15:09:04 -0500

"The U.S. regards a triangular Japan-China-U.S. relationship as the basis of stability in East Asia, and wants good relations between all three of its legs. But the triangle is not equilateral, because the U.S. is allied with Japan, and China need not become a threat to either country if they maintain that alliance....a wise policy combines realism with liberalism. By reinforcing their alliance, the U.S. and Japan can hedge against uncertainty while at the same time offering China integration into global institutions as a "responsible stakeholder."

U.S. Worry Grows over Pakistan's Tribal Peace Deal

Xenia Dormandy — Tue, 06 May 2008 09:34:47 -0500

May 6, 2008

Jackie Northam of NPR interviews Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, regarding the new Pakistani government's negotiations with militants tied to al Qaeda.

India's Key Foreign Policy Issues

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 12:00:59 -0500

April 7, 2008

In recent years, India's military, diplomatic and economic energies have expanded far beyond Nehru's Non-Aligned position. But what does that mean for India, its region, and the United States?

Is NATO Dead or Alive?

Dr. Elizabeth D. Sherwood-Randall — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 15:37:41 -0500

PDP Senior Advisor Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall examines the future of NATO and asks: Will the Alliance, established to fight the Cold War, survive the 21st century?

Is Bush Our Woodrow Wilson?

Joseph S. Nye — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 22:17:43 -0500

"Bush and Wilson have many similarities. Both were highly religious men who came to office without any foreign policy experience and who responded to a crisis — Wilson to World War I, Bush to 9/11 — with a bold, moralistic vision. Wilson vowed to make the world safe for democracy, and Bush tried to transform the Middle East by imposing democratic government on Iraq. Many of Bush's speeches about promoting democracy abroad could have been given by Wilson. The expressed ideals in both men's proposed visions of changing other countries were unachievable given our nation's capacities."

India-Iran Relations: Key Security Implications

Xenia Dormandy and Ronak D. Desai — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 09:00:12 -0500

While India and the United States have embarked on a campaign to strengthen their bilateral relations, as symbolized by the proposed US-India civilian nuclear deal, it appears as though New Delhi has similarly begun to pursue a more robust relationship with another major power: Iran. The two states have recently expanded cooperation in a number of key areas, including counterterrorism, regional stability, and energy security. What are the implications of this "New Delhi-Tehran Axis" for the United States, and how should Washington respond to growing ties between India and Iran?

America Must Learn the Hard Facts of Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 20:55:09 -0500

"Soft power is not good per se, and it is not always better than hard power. Nobody likes to feel manipulated, even by soft power. But soft power allows followers more choice and leeway.

Hard power has not become irrelevant, but leaders must develop the contextual intelligence to combine hard and soft power resources into a "smart power" strategy. The next US president will need to learn that lesson."

Hard vs Soft Power: Contenders in the US Presidential Race Must Respond to a Changed World

Joseph S. Nye — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 20:00:58 -0500

"The fact that the final three contenders in the US election race are a woman, an African-American, and an older man who often challenged his own party suggests that the United States, after a decline in popularity during the Bush years, retains some capacity to reinvent itself. But the next president will need to recognise that the nature of leadership also is changing."

Burns Calls for More US Engagement with Iran

Shafique Jamal — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 10:25:17 -0500

March 12, 2008

Nicholas Burns spoke March 11 in the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum, labeling the top challenges facing the world today as global climate change, trafficking in women and children, international drug and crime cartels, and terrorist groups with access to chemical and biological weapons. This last challenge motivated the focus on Iran.

Nicholas Burns, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, speaks on the future of the U.S.-Iran Relationship

Tue, 11 Mar 2008 15:22:44 -0500

Ambassador Nicholas Burns addresses the Forum in a talk entitled, "Clash with Iran: Inevitable or Avoidable?"

Toward a Liberal Realist Foreign Policy: A Memo for the Next President

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 17:57:15 -0600

"On January 20, you will inherit a legacy of trouble: Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Palestine, North Korea for starters. Failure to manage any one of them could mire your presidency and sap your political support—and threaten the country’s future. At the same time, you must not let these inherited problems define your foreign policy. You need to put them in a larger context and create your own vision of how Americans should deal with the world."

Recovering American Leadership

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 13:06:03 -0600

"Leaders are those who help groups create and achieve shared goals. Traditionally, the leaders in international politics have been the most powerful states. However, while hard military power counts for more in the context of international politics than it does in democratic domestic politics, even in international relations conquest, or pure coercion, is not leadership, but mere dictation. Disproportionate power, sometimes called 'hegemony', has been associated with leadership, but appeals to values and ideology also matter, even for a hegemon...."

PDP Senior Advisor Sherwood-Randall Participates in SHAPEX 2008 in Mons, Belgium

Thu, 28 Feb 2008 08:53:49 -0600

Sherwood-Randall participates in NATO senior military commanders' annual strategic exercise in Mons, Belgium.

New Iran IAEA Report: Reading Between the Lines

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 08:08:14 -0600

February 28, 2008

With the International Atomic Energy Agency scheduled to release its much-anticipated report on Iran within the next few days, Graham Allison offers his insight and analysis — as well as questions that remain unanswered.

La République de Dieu

Charles G. Cogan — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 16:08:39 -0600

La République de Dieu is a collection of essays on the idea of God; on evangelism ("La République de Dieu"); on Islamic fundamentalism ("L'Islam médiéval"); and followed by empirical chapters analyzing a number of conflicts between the Muslim and non-Muslim world: Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Arab/Israeli.

New Iran IAEA Report: Be Cautious

Joshua Gleis — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 08:48:32 -0600

One should not expect much benefit to come out of the impending IAEA report discussing Iranian nuclear activity, Joshua Gleis writes.

Pakistan Elections

Xenia Dormandy — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 12:00:42 -0600

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, gave a Shorenstein lecture on the Pakistan parliamentary elections at the National Press Club on February 21, 2008.

Disavowing the Iran NIE: Smoke Screens or Smoking Guns?

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 11:55:49 -0600

"US policymakers, too, will have to give increasing thought to the options for living with a nuclear Iran, as well as to Israel's considerations. How the US engages with Israel and others regarding the NIE, will have a major effect on crucial decisions they will have to make in the coming months, as well as the long term prospects for containing Iran's nukes."