Belfer Center Topics

The New Influencers: A Primer on the Expanding Role of Middle Powers in Africa

Belfer Center — Aug 5, 2024

Aug 5, 2024

This original primer, conducted as research for The Africa Futures Project, is an initial exploration into the evolving roles and increasing influence of “middle powers” in Africa. It covers a diverse array of existing and aspiring middle powers, presenting key points for each nation under four distinct analytical lenses.

The Trump/Vance Unilateralist Delusion

Belfer Center — Jul 25, 2024

Jul 25, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that if Trump and Vance win in November, it will do enormous long-term damage to America's global position.

A War Without a Name: The Iran-Israel Relationship in Historical Perspective

Belfer Center — Jul 24, 2024

Jul 24, 2024

The defining tension in Middle Eastern politics today—and the most combustible pile of tinder—is between the State of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The antagonism between the two countries has existed for more than forty years. It has played out across the region for more than twenty years within the context of the Middle East’s wider tumult. It has not been restricted to diplomacy, either, but has played out through various means: covert, proxy, political and psychological warfare. Observers of this conflict have as a result tended to describe this state of affairs with obscure terms: “cold” war, “shadow” war, or other words that allude to the existence of an active and geopolitically consequential antagonism but imply an ambiguity that plain old “war” never could.

Why Iran's New President Won't Change His Country

Belfer Center — Jul 16, 2024

Jul 16, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar's analysis posits that yet even if Khamenei gives Pezeshkian a relatively long leash, his government is unlikely to negotiate another ambitious nuclear agreement. It will, instead, look to ink a deal that could freeze or incrementally scale back Iran's nuclear advances, including by reducing the quality and quantity of the uranium Iran enriches, in exchange for sanctions relief. Such a transactional deal would have multiple advantages for Pezeshkian. Given Khamenei's support, Iran's conservatives would be less likely to sabotage that deal than they were the 2015 agreement. And it would be easy for Tehran to ramp up its program if the United States withdraws again, as occurred under President Donald Trump in 2018.

Biden's Frailty Doesn't Endanger America

Belfer Center — Jul 11, 2024

Jul 11, 2024

Stephen Walt writes that doubts about Biden’s ability to do the job over the next six months must be balanced against the qualities that Trump exhibited when he oversaw U.S. foreign policy. Insider accounts of Trump’s first term portray him as erratic, mercurial, uninterested in details, and incapable of giving most foreign-policy problems sustained attention.

The Non-Proliferation Problem

Belfer Center — Jul 9, 2024

Jul 9, 2024

Those harboring doubts about the viability of nuclear non-proliferation ought to consider the lessons of the past 75 years. Even if it proves impossible to contain this catastrophically destructive technology completely, a world with fewer nuclear-armed states is exponentially safer than one with many of them.

What the United States Can Learn From China

Belfer Center — Jun 20, 2024

Jun 20, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that Americans who are deeply worried about China's rise should reflect on what Beijing has done well and what Washington has done poorly.

International Trade and Climate Change Policy: A Conversation with Robert Lawrence

Belfer Center — Jun 18, 2024

Jun 18, 2024

The rise of political populism and economic protectionism are serious barriers impeding efforts to combat global climate change. Robert Lawrence, the Albert Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School, expressed those concerns in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”

Morality Is the Enemy of Peace

Belfer Center — Jun 13, 2024

Jun 13, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that once governments use moral arguments to justify their positions in international disputes, cutting a deal becomes much harder, even when it would be in everyone's interest.

The End of Soft Power?

Belfer Center — Jun 12, 2024

Jun 12, 2024

Joseph Nye argues that even as the hard power of weapons and armies resurges on the global stage, the cultivation and use of soft power will still hold currency in the twenty-first century.

When Actions Speak Louder Than Words: Adversary Perceptions of Nuclear No-First-Use Pledges

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Would the world be safer if the United States pledged to never use nuclear weapons first? Supporters say a credible pledge would strengthen crisis stability, decrease hostility, and bolster nonproliferation and arms control. But reactions to no-first-use pledges by the Soviet Union, China, and India suggest that adversaries perceive pledges as credible only when the political relationship between a state and its adversary is already relatively benign, or when the state’s military has no ability to engage in nuclear first use against the adversary.

Old and New Lessons from the Ukraine War

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Joseph Nye Russia's war on Ukraine is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end. Nonetheless, the past two years have borne out several predictions concerning what does and does not work in twenty-first-century conflicts involving major powers.

Biden's Foreign-Policy Problem Is Incompetence

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2024

Jun 4, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that those who fetishize credibility typically assume all that is needed is sufficient resolve. This overlooks the other key ingredient— competence.

The Death of an Iranian Hard-Liner

Belfer Center — May 24, 2024

May 24, 2024

Mohammad Tabaar writes that former Iranian President Raisi will be remembered for putting the country on the right path after a series of presidents who challenged the supreme leader's vision. He will be memorialized for positioning Iran as a nuclear threshold state and establishing it as a rising power—and for doing so not despite external pressure, but because of it.

America Still Retains a Soft Power Advantage over China

Belfer Center — May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Joseph Nye posits that an open civil society that allows protest can be a soft power asset.

Why Realists Oppose the War in Gaza

Belfer Center — May 21, 2024

May 21, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that realists oppose Israel's actions in Gaza (and U.S. complicity in them) because the combination is undermining the United States' global position and bringing the United States precisely zero strategic benefits.

The Iran-Russia Friendship Won't Wither Under Raisi's Successor

Belfer Center — May 21, 2024

May 21, 2024

Nicole Grajewski describes former Iranian President Raisi’s hardline stance and his willingness to deepen ties with Russia as assets. Collaboration with a like-minded authoritarian with a bent for confronting the West proved particularly valuable after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Day After Iran Gets the Bomb

Belfer Center — May 14, 2024

May 14, 2024

Stephen Walt explores possible scenarios if Iran acquires a nuclear capability.

Energy, Geopolitics, and Climate Change: A Conversation with Meghan O'Sullivan

Belfer Center — May 6, 2024

May 6, 2024

International relations expert Meghan O'Sullivan, the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School, expressed her hopes for achieving successful international climate policy solutions in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”

US-China Cooperation Remains Possible

Belfer Center — May 6, 2024

May 6, 2024

Joseph S. Nye advocates for identifying areas for cooperation between the United States and China such as climate change and public health.