Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - US primacy

The Neocons vs. The Realists

Joshua Muravchik and Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 21:17:41 -0500

"A must-read debate about our foreign-policy future. Does realism offer the best solutions to today’s threats? Or will neoconservatism be responsible for our policy triumphs? The choice is clear after eight years of failed Bush policies, says Walt, but Muravchik thinks the House of Kristol may well be vindicated." — National Interest

Correspondence: Of Polarity and Polarization

Joseph M. Parent, Joseph Bafumi, Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:09:18 -0500

Joseph Parent and Joseph Bafumi reply to the Fall 2007 International Security article, "Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States," by Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz.

Joseph Nye on Smart Power

Doug Gavel and Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 20:10:38 -0500

The days of American hegemony on the world stage appear to be waning. The rise of other global powers, the diffusion of economic and human capital, and the increasingly powerful influences being exerted by non-state actors — including terrorists — have ushered in a new era in geopolitics. Joseph Nye is university distinguished service professor and Sultan of Oman professor of international relations. He is the author of many books and articles on international relations, including his most recent book, “The Powers to Lead.”

When Does the Mission Determine the Coalition? The Logic of Multilateral Intervention and the Case of Afghanistan

Sarah Kreps — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 18:07:30 -0500

"Using the debate between the logic of appropriateness and consequences as a theoretical backdrop, I argue that neither is able to explain the United States' choices between unilateralism and multilateralism in post-Cold War military interventions....In this article, I suggest that "consequences" are best specified according to time horizon, which creates intertemporal tradeoffs between the long-term benefits of multilateralism and immediate payoffs of unilateralism, and the nature of the intervention, which affects the operational payoffs of multilateralism. I test this argument and the existing explanations against the case of Afghanistan. Its within-case variation — largely unilateral in combat operations and robustly multilateral in post-conflict phases — lends strong support to the logic of consequences as specified according to time horizon and operational payoff."

Size Matters

Richard N. Rosecrance — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 17:22:33 -0500

"As the American political system hurtles toward its quadrennial encounter with the oracle of democracy, it is worth our while to take stock of the country's place in a world beset by bewilderingly rapid change. (Heaven knows none of the candidates will bother to do this.) I want to suggest that an old yet generally neglected subject remains particularly relevant: the relationship between the size of political units and the effective scale of systems of economic production and exchange. Another way to describe this relationship is by recourse to the hoary scholarly phrase "political economy", a term of art that has unfortunately gone out of style...."

Your Government Failed You: Breaking the Cycle of National Security Disasters

Richard Clarke — Thu, 29 May 2008 10:11:03 -0500

May 29, 2008

It's not just Bush and Cheney that are to blame. The system is broken. That's the message in this provocative sequel to Against All Enemies. When Richard Clarke apologized for 9-11, he never thought that there would be so many more government failures in so short a time, but climate change, Katrina, the struggle with al Qaeda, the insecurity in cyberspace, and the failure of homeland security all bespeak a larger problem, a systemic failure. Clarke documents the failures and suggests solutions for making government work better in its most important job, protecting us.

America Must Learn the Hard Facts of Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 20:55:09 -0500

"Soft power is not good per se, and it is not always better than hard power. Nobody likes to feel manipulated, even by soft power. But soft power allows followers more choice and leeway.

Hard power has not become irrelevant, but leaders must develop the contextual intelligence to combine hard and soft power resources into a "smart power" strategy. The next US president will need to learn that lesson."

Hard vs Soft Power: Contenders in the US Presidential Race Must Respond to a Changed World

Joseph S. Nye — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 20:00:58 -0500

"The fact that the final three contenders in the US election race are a woman, an African-American, and an older man who often challenged his own party suggests that the United States, after a decline in popularity during the Bush years, retains some capacity to reinvent itself. But the next president will need to recognise that the nature of leadership also is changing."

Toward a Liberal Realist Foreign Policy: A Memo for the Next President

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 17:57:15 -0600

"On January 20, you will inherit a legacy of trouble: Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Palestine, North Korea for starters. Failure to manage any one of them could mire your presidency and sap your political support—and threaten the country’s future. At the same time, you must not let these inherited problems define your foreign policy. You need to put them in a larger context and create your own vision of how Americans should deal with the world."

Recovering American Leadership

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 13:06:03 -0600

"Leaders are those who help groups create and achieve shared goals. Traditionally, the leaders in international politics have been the most powerful states. However, while hard military power counts for more in the context of international politics than it does in democratic domestic politics, even in international relations conquest, or pure coercion, is not leadership, but mere dictation. Disproportionate power, sometimes called 'hegemony', has been associated with leadership, but appeals to values and ideology also matter, even for a hegemon...."

The Powers to Lead

Joseph S. Nye — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 15:30:40 -0600

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. offers a sweeping look at the nature of leadership in today's world, in an illuminating blend of history, business case studies, psychological research, and more. As he observes, many now believe that the more authoritarian and coercive forms of leadership—the hard power approaches of earlier military-industrial eras—have been largely supplanted in postindustrial societies by soft power approaches that seek to attract, inspire, and persuade rather than dictate.

Europe's Power to Lead

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 17:04:16 -0600

"European countries’ success in overcoming centuries of animosity, and the development of a large internal market, has given them a great deal of soft power. At the Cold War’s end, East European countries did not try to form local alliances, as they did in the 1920s, but looked toward Brussels to secure their future. Similarly, countries like Turkey and Ukraine have adjusted their policies in response to their attraction to Europe."

The Future of American Power

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 15:32:35 -0600

"It is generally agreed that the United States is the leading power at the beginning of the twenty-first century, but there is less agreement on how long this will last. Some observers argue that American pre-eminence is simply the result of the collapse of the Soviet Union and that this 'unipolar moment' will be brief, while others argue that America's power is so great that it will last for much of the coming century...."

War, Peace and Hegemony in a Globalized World:The Changing Balance of Power in the Twenty-First Century

Chandra Chari — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 15:03:59 -0600

This book focuses on how the US could adapt its foreign policy initiatives to fit in with the growing aspirations of a multipolar world for a more balanced international order.

Recovering America's 'Smart Power'

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 20:52:11 -0600

"Democracy, human rights, and the development of civil society do not come from the barrel of a gun. True, the American military has impressive operational capacity, but turning to the Pentagon because it can get things done creates an image of an over-militarized foreign policy."

U.S. Primacy, Eurasia's New Strategic Landscape, and the Emerging Asian Order

Alexander Vuving — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 12:37:57 -0600

This paper argues that the current structure of international power in Asia is transitional. But neither hegemony nor multipolarity will likely be the next Asian order. The paper then assesses the prospects of the emerging regional order in Asia in terms of four options: bipolarity, the East Asian Community, U.S.-China condominium, and shared leadership. The paper concludes by discussing how Southeast Asian countries should prepare for the future strategic environment.

Stop Getting Mad, America. Get Smart

Richard Armitage and Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"...security threats are no longer simply military threats. China is building two coal-fired power plants each week. U.S. hard power will do little to curb this trend, but U.S.-developed technology can make Chinese coal cleaner, which helps the environment and opens new markets for American industry

In a changing world, the United States should become a smarter power by once again investing in the global good — by providing things that people and governments want but cannot attain without U.S. leadership."

Offshore Balancing or International Institutions? The Way Forward for U.S. Foreign Policy

G. John Ikenberry and Stephen M. Walt — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

G. John Ikenberry, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, and Stephen Walt, professor of international affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, participated in a debate at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University on May 8, 2007. Christopher Lydon hosted the debate.

Smart Power and the U.S. Strategy for Security in a Post-9/11 World

Joseph S. Nye and Richard Armitage — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0600

Joseph S. Nye and Richard Armitage testify before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Hearing on Smart Power and the U.S. Strategy for Security in the Post-9/11 World

America and Global Public Goods

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 17 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"By using its good offices to mediate conflicts in places like Northern Ireland, Morocco, and the Aegean Sea, the US has helped in shaping international order in ways that are beneficial to other nations."

Iraq Progress Report: Reading Between the Lines

Fri, 07 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

September 7, 2007

With Gen. David H. Petraeus scheduled to appear before Congress next week, Belfer Center experts and researchers offer their insights and analysis — as well as items that Congress should not overlook.

Case Study: Blocking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Graham Allison — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

As the conditions in Iraq deteriorate, the rise of Iran becomes more vivid. Many now foresee the rise of Shiite power across the Arab crescent. With the wind at its back, Iran’s nuclear program is on track to cross the point of no return this year.

The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy

John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt — Mon, 27 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Mearsheimer and Walt provocatively contend that the lobby has a far-reaching impact on America’s posture throughout the Middle East...and the policies it has encouraged are in neither America’s national interest nor Israel’s long-term interest.

All Hail America? Book Review of Are We Rome? The Fall of an Empire and the Fate of America by Cullen Murphy

Joseph S. Nye — Sun, 01 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"...Murphy sees six interesting parallels: focus on the capital city, reliance on military instruments, privatization of public goods, parochial attitudes toward the outside world, problems with borders, and growing complexity."

Japan's Valued Role in Promoting Public Goods

Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 14 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

This commentary comprises excerpts from a keynote speech Joseph S. Nye delivered May 26 in Tokyo at an Asahi Shimbun symposium on its 21 "Proposals for Japan's New Strategies" that ran in May 3 editions of The Asahi Shimbun and on May 23 in IHT/Asahi.

What's at Stake in the American Empire Debate

Daniel H. Nexon and Thomas J. Wright — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"Scholars of world politics enjoy well-developed theories of the consequences of unipolarity or hegemony, but have little to say about what happens when a state's foreign relations take on imperial properties...."

Proliferation, Disarmament and the Future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty

Steven E. Miller — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"Why should others be taken to task when the Nuclear Five are themselves failing to comply with treaty obligations under Article VI, as others see it?"

Changes Afoot on the Diplomatic Stage

Seyom Brown — Sun, 25 Feb 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"POLICY ANALYSTS in Cambridge and policy wonks in Washington are all astir , trying to ascertain whether the anti-US rhetoric by President Vladimir Putin of Russia at a conference in Munich was mainly for his home audience or signaled a resurgent rivalry with the United States...."

The Iraq Experiment and US National Security

Steven E. Miller — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 -0600

This article was prepared for a Council on Foreign Relations/International Institute for Strategic Studies Symposium on Iraq's Impact on the Future of US Foreign and Defence Policy, with generous support from Rita E. Hauser.

Correspondence: The Short Shadow of U.S. Primacy?

Jeffrey Lantis, Tom Sauer, James Wirtz, Keir A. Lieber and Daryl Press — Sun, 31 Dec 2006 00:00:00 -0600

Jeffrey Lantis, Tom Sauer, and James Wirtz reply to Keir Lieber and Daryl Press's spring 2006 International Security article, "The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy."