US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

Dynamics of Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Threats to Post-Soviet Russia

Belfer Center — Jun 21, 2022

Jun 21, 2022

Simon Saradzhyan was invited to publicly brief the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) committee addressing the adequacy of strategies to prevent, counter, and respond to nuclear terrorism, and identify technical, policy, and resource gaps. The consensus study is a congressionally mandated analysis included in the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1299I) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy). Nearly 60 stakeholders concerned about this topic from the Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, State Department, National Security Council, US Congress, the National Labs, and many non-governmental organizations were in attendance. The briefings are available at the NAS event website. Video of the presentation can be found here.

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: November 2020 - November 2021

Belfer Center — Dec 10, 2021

Dec 10, 2021

U.S.-Russia Elbe Group Maintains Focus on Threat of Nuclear Terrorism.
Former Chernobyl Plant Manager Bryukhanov Dies.
Matthew Bunn on Threat to Nuclear and Radiological Transports.
On 9/11 Anniversary Russian Officials Call for Resumption of U.S.-Russian CT Cooperation.
Experts Weigh in on 9/11 Anniversary.
U.S. and Norway Agree to Eliminate All of Norway’s HEU.
Two Soviet Nuclear Submarine Reactors Located.
Russian Security Council: Terrorists Remain Interested in NBC.
IAEA Adopts Resolutions on Nuclear Security, NS Center Planned.
Allison on Risk of Mega-terrorist Attack After U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan.
Arbatov Warns of Enduring Threat of Nuclear Terrorism to Russia in His New Volume.
Russia’s New Security Strategy Drops References to CT Partnership With U.S.
NNSA’s Non-Proliferation Budget to Decrease in ’22, Provides for US and Russian Visits.
Should U.S.-Russian Interaction in Cyberspace Involve CT?
Russia’s NPP Operator Conducts Emergency Preparedness Exercise.
Putin and Biden Discuss Terrorist Threat Emanating from Afghanistan, but No Deal.
U.S. Experts on Ensuring Access to Neutrons While Reducing Nuclear Terrorism Risks.
Beebe Weighs in on U.S.-Russian CT Interaction.
Duo Detained for Alleged Attempt to Sell Americium-241.
12th GUMO Guard’s Sentence Upheld.
NDAA-Mandated Group to Identify Nuclear Terrorism Risks.
Belfer’s MTA Hosts Conference on Lessons of Fukushima and Chernobyl.
Russia Withdraws from Uranium Hexafluoride Transportation Deal with U.S.
Bell: U.S. Needs to Convince Russia on Contending With Nuclear Terrorism Threat.
U.S. and Canada Complete Repatriation of HEU Material.
Siegfried Hecker Outlines his Vision of Future for Nuclear Security Cooperation.
Hackers Breach U.S. Nuclear Agency.
Tobey on Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists and Terrorists.
Rosatom Has Checked Nuclear Sites, Following a Tip on Terrorism from U.S.

6 Months On: Does the Biden-Putin Summit Get a Passing Grade?

Belfer Center — Dec 1, 2021

Dec 1, 2021

One of the few things America’s Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin had agreed upon prior to their first summit almost half a year ago was that they would not hold a joint press conference after their June 16 huddle at an 18th century villa in Geneva. The two presidents’ decision to talk to press separately came as no surprise, given how many major issues they publicly disagreed on at the time.

US-Russian Contention in Cyberspace

Belfer Center — Jun 10, 2021

Jun 10, 2021

The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”

Potential Fruits of the Biden-Putin Summit

Belfer Center — Jun 4, 2021

Jun 4, 2021

The last time Joe Biden met Vladimir Putin, the two did not exactly hit it off. During the March 2011 meeting the-then vice president of the United States urged the then-prime minister of Russia not to return to the Kremlin, and then claimed to have reached unflattering conclusions about his Russian counterpart’s soul after the meeting was over. Putin too seems to have no love lost for Biden, even if he has been less blunt in showing it.

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: November 2019 - November 2020

Belfer Center — Nov 26, 2020

Nov 26, 2020

Elbe Group Discusses Strategic Stability, Hybrid Warfare and Terrorism.
Mowatt-Larssen’s Book Details Lessons He Learned While Tracking Al-Qaida’s WMD Programs.
Experts on New START Extension and Other Nuclear Priorities of Biden Presidency.
Kazakhstan’s Last HEU Eliminated.
William Potter Joins Russian Academy of Sciences.
COVID, Nuclear Security On Agenda of IAEA’s 64th General Conference.
Mayak Aims to Process Entire range of SNF.
Atomguard Reports Foiling Unauthorized Access.
Allison: US Vital Interest in Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism Will Continue to Guide Its North Korea Policy.
Learning from COVID-19 to Prepare for Nuclear Attack.
Hecker, Kassianova Encourage Young US and RF Professionals to Explore Lessons of Nuclear Accidents.
Experts Weigh in on 75th Anniversary of Hiroshima Bombing.
A New Look at IAEA’s Nuclear Security Recommendations.
Azerbaijan Has Threatened to Strike Armenia’s NPP With Missiles.
IAEA Notified of 189 Incidents Of Material Being Out Of Regulatory Control in 2019.
Russia To Retrieve More Radioactive Debris from Bottom of Ocean.
Researchers Propose Fast Way to Detect Weapons Grade Materials.
Keeping Nuclear Power Plants Out of Reach of Terrorists During the Coronavirus Pandemic.
Bunn, Tobey and Roth Testify on Prevention of Nuclear Theft, Call for Cooperation With Russia.
Budapest Memorandum Parsed.
IAEA Holds A Ministerial on Nuclear Security.
Assessing Progress on Nuclear Security.
12^th GUMO Officer On Trial for Embezzlement.
Lukashenko: Pompeo Alerted Me to Nuclear Materials at Border.
US and Russia Reported HEU and Plutonium to IAEA.
IAEA Bank Receives LEU.
GICNT Hosted 8 Multilateral Activities in 2019.

Putin’s Nagorno-Karabakh Calculus Can Undermine Russian Clout in FSU

Belfer Center — Nov 19, 2020

Nov 19, 2020

Simon Saradzhyan writes that Russia’s decision not to employ leverage to stop the conflict in its early stages made a lasting impression on its allies.

Is Stopping the War Between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Russia’s (Vital) Interest?

Belfer Center — Oct 6, 2020

Oct 6, 2020

Simon Saradzhyan writes that the benefits that discontinuing the war on Russia’s terms can generate for defending or advancing Russia’s vital interests will exceed the costs of doing so.

What’s Putin’s plan now?

Belfer Center — Jan 16, 2020

Jan 16, 2020

Putin is rumored to prefer focusing on foreign policy, where the Kremlin has proved itself to be a skilled player, while finding structural problems at home too boring to focus on. However, unless these are solved, he or his successor will continue to confront the reality that Russia remains too far behind the United States and China economically and demographically to be a true peer to these countries in the changing global order.

What Stops US and Russia From Stumbling Into War?

Belfer Center — Jan 9, 2020

Jan 9, 2020

As we are all well aware, the original Cold War, which officially ended 40 years ago this month, featured a number of close calls that almost turned it into a hot war. Thankfully, neither the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 nor the Able Archer exercise of 1983 (nor any other perilous incidents), led to a war between Washington and Moscow. More recently, however, respected statesmen have again begun to sound alarms. “Not since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis has the risk of a U.S.-Russian confrontation involving the use of nuclear weapons been as high as it is today,” former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn warned in a recent article in Foreign Affairs. I have expressed some doubts about this proposition, but it is nevertheless worth asking what it is—other than the fear of mutually assured destruction—that keeps the U.S. and Russia from stumbling into a war today or tomorrow. Part of the answer lies in the bilateral and multilateral agreements specifically designed to prevent incidents that could escalate into a war.

Ukraine Illuminated: Insiders Parse the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Then and Now

Belfer Center — Dec 19, 2019

Dec 19, 2019

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: November 2018 - November 2019

Belfer Center — Dec 15, 2019

Dec 15, 2019

Russians View Terrorists as Third Most Probable Source of Nuclear Attack
U.S. Adopts New Strategy for Countering of WMD Terrorism
Elbe Group Calls for U.S.-Russian Cooperation against Terrorism
Belfer Center Experts on Combatting Complacency about Nuclear Terrorism
Can Threat Emanating from Jihadists of Central Asia Have a WMD Dimension?
NTI and CENESS on Radiological Risks in Central Asia
Hecker Assesses Probability of Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism
Luxembourg Forum: It’s Vital for US and Russia to Intensify Cooperation to Combat Nuclear Terrorism

How High Is Risk of Nuclear War Between Russia and US?

Belfer Center — Aug 6, 2019

Aug 6, 2019

Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernie Moniz and former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn argue in a new Foreign Affairs article that the threat of nuclear war between Russia and the U.S. is higher now than at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Expert Survey: Is Nuclear Arms Control Dead or Can New Principles Guide It?

Belfer Center — Jul 30, 2019

Jul 30, 2019

With the historic INF Treaty more than likely to terminate, and the future of New START in doubt, what guiding principles for interstate nuclear arms control can we hope for? Of eight U.S., Russian, European and Chinese experts surveyed by Russia Matters, most agree that bilateral agreements between the world’s two nuclear superpowers still have a role to play in any new arms control regime, but they differed considerably on the nature of that role.

Russian Plane Draws Shots from South Korea in First Air Patrol with China: Belfer Experts Weigh In

Belfer Center — Jul 25, 2019

Jul 25, 2019

South Korean fighter jets fired over 300 warning shots at a Russian Air Force A-50 Mainstay Airborne Early Warning aircraft on July 23 after the Russian plane twice violated South Korea’s airspace above the East Sea, according to South Korean authorities cited by The Aviationist. Earlier that day, Russian and Chinese bombers had conducted their first long-range joint air patrol in the Asia-Pacific. Russia’s Defense Ministry said there had been “no violations of airspaces of foreign countries” in its joint patrol with China, according to the New York Times, and Russian diplomats in Seoul reportedly complained of inaccuracies in the official comments from South Korea.

Russia Matters asked some members of the Belfer Center’s Russia team for their take on the developments.

Trump Takes Risky Gamble Meeting with Kim and Walking Into North Korea

Belfer Center — Jun 30, 2019

Jun 30, 2019

President Trump’s trip Sunday to the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea and his historic decision to cross briefly into North Korea was a made-for-TV diplomatic spectacular. But it was also a test of whether personal diplomacy can trump (so to speak) longstanding definitions of a country’s national interests by persuading North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to end his nuclear weapons program.

Lessons for Leaders: What Afghanistan Taught Russian and Soviet Strategists

Belfer Center — Feb 28, 2019

Feb 28, 2019

The following is a selection of military-political lessons gleaned mostly from the recollections of Soviet strategists who were involved in making and executing the fateful decision to send troops to Afghanistan, as well as from writings by some of post-Soviet Russia’s prominent military analysts. Where possible, the author made an effort to relay these strategists’ analysis of the failures and successes of the intervention because he felt that such assessments, based on first-hand experience, are not always given their due in English-language literature on the subject.

The INF Quandary: Preventing a Nuclear Arms Race in Europe. Perspectives from the US, Russia and Germany

Belfer Center — Jan 24, 2019

Jan 24, 2019

Thus, the fate of the INF Treaty is of surpassing importance in Europe, Russia and the United States. The stakes for the parties to the treaty are obvious. Europe too would be affected as dissolution of the treaty could lead to a new arms race with intermediate-range missiles targeting the entire continent. Below, three authors representing each of these perspectives consider the likely future of the treaty, how it might be saved and what its demise might mean.

Keeping Communications Open Despite U.S.-Russia Friction

Belfer Center — Dec 21, 2018

Dec 21, 2018

For the past eight years, a group of high-level American and Russian retired military and intelligence officials has met annually to discuss sensitive issues of U.S. - Russian relations. The purpose of the Elbe Group, launched by the Belfer Center in 2008, is to keep open an important channel of communications between the two countries that have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. in the world.

Jihadists from Ex-Soviet Central Asia: Where Are They? Why Did They Radicalize? What Next?

Belfer Center — Dec 7, 2018

Dec 7, 2018

Thousands of radicals from formerly Soviet Central Asia have traveled to fight alongside IS in Syria and Iraq; hundreds more are in Afghanistan. Not counting the fighting in those three war-torn countries, nationals of Central Asia have been responsible for nearly 100 deaths in terrorist attacks outside their home region in the past five years. But many important aspects of the phenomenon need more in-depth study.

This research paper attempts to answer four basic sets of questions: (1) Is Central Asia becoming a new source of violent extremism that transcends borders, and possibly continents? (2) If so, why? What causes nationals of Central Asia to take up arms and participate in political violence? (3) As IS has been all but defeated in Iraq and Syria, what will Central Asian extremists who have thrown in their lot with the terrorist group do next? And (4) do jihadists from Central Asia aspire to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction? If so, how significant a threat do they pose and who would be its likeliest targets?