Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Weapons of mass destruction

Exporting Mass Destruction? The Determinants of Dual-Use Trade

Matthew Fuhrmann — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 19:58:56 -0500

This study applies well-known arguments on the effect of conflict, alliances, and democracy on international trade to identify the determinants of dual-use trade. Dual-use commodities are those that can be used in weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs or in legitimate civilian applications. This article advances a theory suggesting that governments seeking to maximize the gains from dual-use trade will promote exports to countries where there are security guarantees and restrict exports to countries where security threats exist.

Memo to President-elect McBama

Graham Allison — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 09:02:48 -0500

August 22, 2008

Graham Allison writes in a memo to a fictional President-elect McBama on the suject of nuclear terrorism, "You pledged that you would make preventing this catastrophe an organizing principle of your administration. This memo provides a brief outline of strategy and organization to fulfill that promise."

Musharraf Exit May Affect U.S. Plans

Xenia Dormandy — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 00:00:48 -0500

Xenia Dormandy, Director of the Project on India and the Subcontinent, was interviewed for National Public Radio's All Things Considered on the impact of Musharraf's resignation for U.S. foreign policy.

Strengthening our Strategy Against WMD

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and The Honorable Robert G. Joseph — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 08:52:43 -0500

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and Ambassador Robert G. Joseph discuss recommendations stemming from recommendations in final report of the review they co-chaired of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and other DOD efforts to counter weapons of mass destruction.

Chinese, Russian Stall Tactics on Iran

Joshua Gleis — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 12:38:07 -0500

"...The Chinese and Russians say they do not support stronger sanctions because they don't believe in their effectiveness. Off the record, however, both countries recognize that any form of sanctions that restrict their own business ventures is not going to stop the Iranians from pursuing their end goal of acquiring nuclear weapons.Thus in the meantime, the Russians and Chinese are angling themselves to maximize the economic benefits of such a precarious state of affairs in the Middle East...."

Denuclearization of the DPRK—A Role for the United Nations?

Xiaohui (Anne) Wu — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 09:39:23 -0500

"The denuclearization of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues to be a source of considerable international concern. Yet, no coherent international framework has emerged to deal with this challenge in parallel with the regional mechanism of the six-party talks. With the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference set for 2010, appropriately addressing the DPRK nuclear issue is being identified as essential to maintaining the strength of the NPT. Can the United Nations (UN) afford to take a back seat in attempts at resolution?This article examines the potential of, and prospects for, an active UN role in facilitating Pyongyang's denuclearization process. Anne Wu's paper examines the potential of, and prospects for, an active UN role in facilitating Pyongyang's denuclearization process."

IAEA Safeguards: Dealing Preventively with Non-Compliance

Pierre Goldschmidt — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:35:01 -0500

In a study commissioned by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Pierre Goldschmidt, former Deputy Director-General for Safeguards at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), outlines a new approach to strengthening the IAEA's hand in cases when states violate their safeguards agreements. Goldschmidt argues that the UN Security Council should pass a generic resolution laying out steps the Security Council would take to deal with any state found to be in violation of its safeguards obligations. Any state which violated its safeguards pact would be required to accept a broader inspection regime going well beyond the Additional Protocol until the IAEA was able to draw the conclusion that all of its nuclear facilities and materials were under safeguards. If the IAEA is unable to draw such a conclusion with 60 days, the state would be required to cease all its sensitive nuclear activities. Goldschmidt offers a draft text for the resolution and for the "Model Temporary Complementary Protocol" that defines the broader inspection regime, along with an article-by-article analysis.

Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay

William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:31:18 -0500

Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.

Reinforcing the Global Nuclear Order: The Role of the IAEA

Graham Allison and Matthew Bunn — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 15:47:29 -0500

The high-level Commission of Eminent Persons advising the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that meeting the current nuclear challenges and seizing the current opportunities will require a fundamentally reinvigorated global nuclear order, featuring a strengthened IAEA with "additional authority, resources, personnel, and technology." Without a "bold agenda" of steps to strengthen the nuclear order, the Commission warned that there were real risks that terrorists might get a nuclear bomb, that a nuclear accident might occur, or that, as the UN High-Level Panel warned, the world could suffer "a cascade of nuclear proliferation." Preventing such events, the Commission emphasized, is essential for nuclear energy to grow enough to contribute to mitigating climate change, making safety, security, and nonproliferation essential foundations for nuclear energy's future.

Actions Now for the Day After: Findings of the Preventive Defense Day After Project

Dr. Ashton B. Carter — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:56:55 -0500

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter testifies before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

PDP Co-Director Carter testifies before Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Tue, 15 Apr 2008 14:17:09 -0500

PDP Co-Director Dr. Ashton B. Carter testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs at its hearing on "Nuclear Terrorism: Confronting the Challenges of the Day After."

Review Panel on Future Directions for Defense Threat Reduction Agency Missions and Capabilities to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction

Dr. Ashton B. Carter and The Honorable Robert G. Joseph — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 10:52:37 -0500

PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter and the Honorable Robert G. Joseph co-chaired a Review Panel on Future Directions for DTRA Missions and Capabilities to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).

PDP Co-Director William J. Perry named chair of Congressional Commission on U.S. Strategic Posture

Wed, 19 Mar 2008 18:24:33 -0500

The U.S. House Armed Services Committee named PDP Co-Director William J. Perry chair of the Congressional Commission on United States Strategic Posture, a bipartisan committee established to provide a forward-looking assessment of U.S. strategic posture, including the role of nuclear weapons.

Oil for Nukes — Mostly a Bad Idea

Matthew Fuhrmann — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 16:49:05 -0600

"...In 1975, France signed an agreement with Iraq authorizing the export of a research reactor and highly enriched uranium. According to French officials at the time, their aim was to obtain a permanent and secure oil supply from a country that provided 20 percent of its oil.

It worked. But it also had tremendous consequences for international and regional security."

A Nuclear Site Is Breached

Micah Zenko — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 09:39:44 -0600

"...nuclear terrorism is a global issue, extending far beyond the familiar policy talking points of U.S. cooperation with Russia over its nuclear stockpiles, the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in the face of threats from Islamic extremists, and concerns that if Iran acquires nuclear capabilities it could provide a bomb to sympathetic terrorist organizations....the essential ingredients required for making a nuclear weapon exist in more than 40 countries, in facilities with differing levels of security. Unfortunately, there are still no binding global standards on how to secure nuclear weapons and weapons-grade nuclear material."

The View from Iran

Kaveh L. Afrasiabi and Kayhan Barzegar — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0600

"...With the United States and Iran poised for a fourth round of dialogue on Iraq's security, and the latest IAEA report confirming Iran's steady cooperation and increasing nuclear transparency, the stage is now set for a thaw in the hitherto hostile US-Iran relations.

Both sides should heed the call by the head of IAEA, Mohammad ElBaradei, to use the intelligence report as the basis for a comprehensive dialogue geared toward normalization."

Report on Discouraging a Cascade of Nuclear Weapons States

Fri, 19 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

This report of the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) offers nineteen recommendations for discouraging a cascade of nuclear weapons states.

Global Fissile Materials Report 2007

Mon, 01 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Over the past six decades, our understanding of the nuclear danger has expanded from the threat posed by the vast nuclear arsenals created by the superpowers in the Cold War to encompass the proliferation
of nuclear weapons to additional states and now also to terrorist groups. To reduce this danger, it is essential to secure and to sharply reduce all stocks of highly enriched uranium and separated plutonium, the key materials in nuclear weapons, and to limit any further production.

The mission of the IPFM is to advance the technical basis for cooperative international policy initiatives to achieve these goals.

Bombs We Can Stop

Matthew Bunn — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"William Langewiesche has the reputation of being one of America's best investigative reporters. Unfortunately, he has written a very bad book on nuclear proliferation." Matthew Bunn reviews The Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor, by William Langewiesche.

Thwarting Terrorists: More to Be Done

Matthew Bunn — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"...much progress has been made toward upgrading security for nuclear stockpiles. The bad news is that the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons exist in hundreds of buildings in more than 40 countries, and terrorists are actively trying to get a nuclear bomb or the materials to make one."

U.S., Iran Need to Build Confidence

Abbas Maleki and Kaveh L. Afrasiabi — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"...the stage is set for a thaw in U.S.-Iran relations. With sufficient political will on both sides, Washington and Tehran can achieve this by adopting concrete confidence-building measures and by imposing a mutually agreed-upon moratorium on demonizing each other."

The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City

Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Dr. William J. Perry and Dr. Michael M. May — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Failure to develop a comprehensive contingency plan, such as the one proposed here, and inform the American public, where appropriate, about its particulars will only serve to amplify the devastating impact of any nuclear attack on a U.S. city

Reassessing Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: Competition, Congruence, and Transformation

Amitav Acharya and Evelyn Goh — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Since the 1990s, Asia-Pacific countries have changed their approaches to security cooperation and regional order. The end of the Cold War, the resurgence of China, the Asian economic crisis, and the events of September 11, 2001, have all contributed to important changes in the Asia-Pacific security architecture.

Reducing Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Threats

Matthew Bunn and Tom Bielefeld — Thu, 12 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Urgent actions are needed to prevent a nuclear or radiological 9/11. Terrorists are actively seeking nuclear weapons and Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDDs) and the materials to make them. There are scores of sites where the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons exist, in dozens of countries worldwide. There are thousands of sites worldwide where radiological materials exist. Many of these sites are not sufficiently secured to defeat the kinds of threats that terrorists and criminals have demonstrated they can pose. A dangerous gap remains between the urgency of the threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism and the scope and pace of the U.S. and world response. While the gap has narrowed significantly in recent years, much more needs to be done. This paper describes the nuclear and radiological terrorism threats, analyzes the actions taken so far to address these threats, and recommends further actions going forward.

Teheran's War by Proxy

Chuck Freilich — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"One cannot win a war against an aggressive, expansionist adversary, simply by fighting a limited war against its proxies."

The Lobster Summit

Graham Allison — Thu, 05 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. Bush's decision to award President Vladimir Putin the unique distinction of a weekend in Kennebunkport with two American presidents flummoxed supporters and critics alike. Over the past year, no international leader has been more critical of the president than his Russian guest.

Fast Action Needed to Avert Nuclear Terror Strike on U.S.

Graham Allison — Mon, 02 Jul 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Before 9/11, most Americans found the idea that international terrorists could mount an attack on their homeland and kill thousands of innocent citizens not merely unlikely but inconceivable. After nearly six years without a second attack on U.S. soil, some skeptics suggest that 9/11 was a 100-year flood. The view that terrorists are preparing even more deadly assaults seems as far-fetched to them as the possibility of terrorists crashing passenger jets into the World Trade Center did before that fateful Tuesday morning in 2001. And yet the danger of a nuclear attack by terrorists is not only very real but disturbingly likely.

No Loose Nukes: Preventing a Terrorist Nuclear Attack on the U.S.

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Before 9/11 most Americans found the idea that international terrorists could mount an attack on their homeland and kill thousands of innocent citizens not just unlikely but inconceivable.

Olmert: Doing Herod Proud

Chuck Freilich — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

"...the already comatose peace process is closer than ever to death and Israel now faces Iranian threats on virtually all fronts."

Rushing Past Warning Signs

Bob Graham — Sun, 17 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0500

When the U.S. intelligence community released its October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) regarding Iraq and weapons of mass destruction, it had little idea that it would become the political hot potato of the 2008 presidential primaries