Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Weapons of mass destruction

Belfer Center Perspectives On Iran

Fri, 17 May 2013 12:49:52 -0500

As debate over Iran's nuclear program intensifies, Belfer Center experts on Iran have been interviewed and quoted in numerous media reports and have written opinion pieces on the issues involved. Here are recent published perspectives.

David Hamburg on Giving Peace a Chance

James F. Smith — Thu, 16 May 2013 15:41:18 -0500

May 16, 2013

When Dr. David A. Hamburg led the Carnegie Corporation of New York in the 1980s and ‘90s, he drew on his roots as a physician to foster projects and research that advanced a simply stated goal: “the prevention of rotten outcomes.”

Now in his late 80s, Hamburg is still putting his medical instincts to work. He is discovering new ways to use early-prevention methods to avoid deadly conflict and enable healthy human development.

Hamburg spoke at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs on May 3 about his forthcoming book, Give Peace a Chance. His son and co-author, filmmaker Eric Hamburg, joined him at the event, along with two Harvard friends, Law School Dean Martha Minow and Belfer Center Director Graham Allison.

From the Director

Graham Allison — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:17:48 -0500

"The Boston Marathon is at the heart of a day rich in meaning for the Boston community...The marathon terror attack of April 15 cut into our community at its most vulnerable. That made the suffering of the victims even more intolerable for all Americans...As the dramatic events unfolded in Boston, I was proud not only of the resilient response of our city, but also of the support the Belfer Center community was able to offer."

Q&A with Juliette Kayyem

Tue, 14 May 2013 07:12:59 -0500

Juliette Kayyem is a Lecturer in Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School who served as Assistant Secretary for Intergovernmental Affairs at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in the first Obama administration and headed homeland security efforts for Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick. Currently a columnist for the Boston Globe and analyst for CNN, Kayyem provided extensive analysis of the situation following the Boston Marathon bombings. We asked for her views on Boston’s response to the attack.

Neustadt Award Honors Senators Nunn and Lugar for Nuclear Safety

Sharon Wilke — Tue, 14 May 2013 07:05:00 -0500

"Former Senator Sam Nunn, founder and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative... and former Senator Richard Lugar were awarded the prestigious 2013 Richard E. Neustadt Award at Harvard Kennedy School on May 2... Dean David Ellwood noted that the award is bestowed annually to honor one or more individuals “for creating powerful solutions to public problems, drawing on research and intellectual ideas as appropriate.”

North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Future Strategy and Doctrine

Terence Roehrig — Fri, 10 May 2013 14:46:55 -0500

A nuclear North Korea makes it crucial that all countries in Northeast Asia work hard at maintaining a stable security environment that avoids the dangers of a crisis while encouraging North Korea to adopt a nuclear strategy that retains its "no first use" pledge, a strong command and control system, and a stable nuclear weapons posture. Given its relationship with North Korea, China is best positioned to encourage DPRK leaders in these directions.

Out on a Presidential Limb

Charles G. Cogan — Fri, 03 May 2013 11:56:36 -0500

"...[I]n the event of a worst-case scenario in which negotiations completely fail, Barack Obama has committed himself to an unprovoked military attack on Iran, which would have a disastrous effect on world public opinion and lead to unpredictable human and material damage."

Project on Managing the Atom Seeks Research Assistant

Wed, 01 May 2013 17:55:09 -0500

Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs is seeking a full-time Research Assistant to conduct in-depth research in support of projects focusing on reducing the risks of nuclear theft and terrorism worldwide, addressing key constraints on the future of nuclear energy, and preventing black-market nuclear technology transfers.

The application has been closed.

China, North Korea and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Ben Rhode and Thomas Plant — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 10:17:03 -0500

Once described as ‘as close as lips and teeth’, in recent years the relationship between China and North Korea has become more strained. Beijing has conflicted motivations in its policy towards Pyongyang. The threat to Beijing’s interests if North Korean nuclear weapons or materials find their way into the hands of others outweighs the danger of a regime collapse in Pyongyang.

Obama's Nuclear Vision - or Illusion?

Graham Allison — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 08:42:22 -0500

"Four years ago today, President Obama gave his first speech abroad. In Prague, he announced a bold vision for a “world without nuclear weapons.” Four years on, it is fair to ask: How is that working out? Assessing all the positives, and all the negatives, are we closer to the president’s aspiration — or further from it?"

Spotlight on Gary Samore

James F. Smith — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 07:39:10 -0500

In the complex world of the United States government, it’s rare for a lone White House official to oversee a real change in direction on a major policy issue. Gary Samore not only helped reshape U.S. policy on one issue; he did so with two immense national security challenges during his four years as President Obama’s Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control.

U.S.-Russia Arms Control: Prospects and Challenges

Amb. Steven Pifer — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 16:46:26 -0500

This seminar examined the prospects for further nuclear arms reductions between the United States and Russia, including the possibility that negotiations might be expanded to weapons not limited by the New START Treaty. The seminar covered U.S. and Russian differences over missile defense and how those might be resolved to allow a cooperative NATO-Russia missile defense arrangement for Europe.

Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Military Dynamics of Nonproliferation

Mansour Salsabili — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 13:56:18 -0500

Ambiguity in Iran's weapon acquisition dynamics exacerbates mistrust, which is the core reason for the present standoff at the negotiating table. This paper elucidates the Iranian military's capability and intention by delving into the main componential elements of weapon acquisition.

'Star Wars' Today: What would Reagan do?

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 09:50:09 -0500

"President Reagan stunned fellow citizens and the world 30 years ago this month with a dramatic announcement that the United States would develop and deploy a system capable of intercepting and destroying strategic ballistic missiles." For Reagan, Graham Allison writes, "this was an essential steppingstone to his even grander vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. [To] persuade America's Cold War adversary to eliminate its superpower nuclear arsenal as well, Reagan proposed to share this SDI technology with Moscow."

Bolstering Nonproliferation through Disarmament Progress

Jeffrey W. Knopf — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 17:29:52 -0500

Critics of the linkage argument argue that the United States and Russia have cut their nuclear arsenals substantially without any noticeable subsequent increase in support for nonproliferation. Nonnuclear weapon states, however, tend not to view nuclear arms reductions as the best indicator of compliance with Article 6; they attach greater weight to policies that convey an intent among weapon states to keep nuclear weapons indefinitely.

North Korea Stirs Cuban Crisis Memory

Hui Zhang — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 09:58:39 -0500

"President Barack Obama and Kim Jong-eun could end up confronting each other 'eyeball to eyeball', each with nuclear weapons on hair trigger, as president John F Kennedy and Nikita Khruschev did over five decades ago during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. However, the younger and less-experienced Kim of the smaller and isolated Kingdom might not behave as rationally as Khruschev."

Triste Anniversaire

Charles G. Cogan — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 17:46:03 -0500

"...[T]his was a useless war, conceived under the mistaken pretext that Saddam was in possession of weapons of mass destruction and resulting in untold sacrifices of dead and wounded on all sides."

China's North Korea Dilemma

Hui Zhang — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 13:41:02 -0600

"From China's perspective, the crisis is driven by Washington and Pyongyang. North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear ambitions until it gets from the U.S. what it covets most: a reliable security assurance. This would mean an end to Washington's pursuit of regime change. If Washington does not move in this direction, Pyongyang will continue to escalate the crisis. Any resolution of the impasse has to address the reasonable security concerns of North Korea."

'Zero Dark Thirty' has the facts wrong – and that's a problem, not just for the Oscars

Graham Allison — Fri, 22 Feb 2013 10:50:17 -0600

The movie “Zero Dark Thirty” is unquestionably a gripping drama and credible contender in this year’s Oscar competition (nominated for five Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay). If director Kathryn Bigelow’s film presented itself principally as fiction, it could be judged exclusively on its technical or dramatic merits, which are considerable. However, writes Graham Allison, "because it advertises itself as a factually grounded 'journalistic filming' of the hunt for Osama bin Laden, it cannot duck a further question about what it owes to truth."

Not So Fast: Pyongyang's Nuclear Weapons Ambitions

Dana Struckman and Terence Roehrig — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 18:13:30 -0600

"While concern for North Korea's push to become a relevant nuclear power is warranted, it is equally important to recognize the very serious technical issues that have plagued Pyongyang's efforts to date. Building a nuclear weapon and its delivery system, and then keeping them operational for the long term is hard—even harder for those states attempting to do it under the umbrella of international sanctions and monitoring."

North Korea's Third Nuclear Test: Plutonium or Highly Enriched Uranium?

Hui Zhang — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 18:43:24 -0600

"North Korea has only a small supply of plutonium—material that it had stopped producing by 2008—and had more recently demonstrated an operational capability to enrich uranium, which would support a much larger arsenal of weapons given North Korea's huge deposits of natural uranium.... However, the seismic signals are useless in this regard. The question is, then, can the off-site environmental sampling analysis distinguish a plutonium explosion from a HEU explosion?"

President Obama's WMD "Czar" Appointed Executive Director of Belfer Center

James F. Smith — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 15:19:27 -0600

Gary Samore, President Obama’s Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control, has been appointed Executive Director (Research) for Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. A former fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program, Samore has served for the past four years as the principal advisor to the President on all matters relating to arms control and the prevention of weapons of mass destruction proliferation and WMD terrorism.

Iran and the US Need a Middleman — or Two

Mahsa Rouhi — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 13:00:46 -0600

"The foundations of a Turkey-Japan negotiation with Iran have been laid in decades of dialogue with Tehran and long-established relations focused on energy supplies. Most important, Turkey and Japan continue to maintain strong trade relations with Tehran, which allows them to include economic incentives in a potential proposal. The P5+1 cannot offer such incentives unless they lift a number of sanctions, which seems highly unlikely at the first stage."

Deciphering North Korea's New Year's Address: The Real Road Ahead

John S. Park — Sat, 19 Jan 2013 08:57:30 -0600

Kim Jong-eun's New Year's Day address signaled a willingness to ease tensions with South Korea and focus on economic development, but how credible is this message? Project on Managing the Atom Associate and MIT Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow John Park analyzes the address in an HKS PolicyCast.

Israel's Election and the Iran Crisis

Shai Feldman — Fri, 18 Jan 2013 10:29:51 -0600

Shai Feldman writes: "Israel’s January 22 elections will produce a new government. The extent to which it will differ from the outgoing government remains to be seen. But efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons might be affected. Could the composition of a new Israeli government indirectly impact the Israeli-U.S. discourse on Iran's nuclear program?"

The Year in Numbers

Juliette Kayyem — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 09:05:09 -0600

"The never-ending negotiations about the pending fiscal cliff sometimes amount to nothing more than a dizzying array of numbers. Who can count that high? The negotiations also make us think that the only stastistics that mattered in 2012, or will matter in 2013, involve dollar signs. A year in pictures may be compelling and beautiful, but the year in numbers gives a strong hint of what to anticipate in the year ahead."

A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East: Creating the Conditions for Sustained Progress

Martin B. Malin and Paolo Foradori — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 13:37:02 -0600

How can the states of the Middle East begin to create the political conditions for achieving sustained progress toward the elimination of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons? This paper examines the challenges and obstacles that the parties of the region will need to overcome to bring a WMD-free zone into force, and recommends near-term steps for improving regional security.

A Defector's Account of Syrian Chemical Weapons on the Move

David Ignatius — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 10:37:55 -0600

"Reports from inside two Syrian chemical weapons facilities offer chilling new evidence that President Bashar al-Assad’s regime developed special vehicles last year for moving and mixing the weapons — and an unconfirmed allegation that Lebanese allies of the regime, presumably in Hezbollah, may have been trained 11 months ago in the weapons’ use," writes Future of Diplomacy Project senior fellow David Ignatius.

Is a Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible? An Analytical Framework for the Iran Nuclear Negotiations

James K. Sebenius and Michael K. Singh — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 09:42:41 -0600

Varied diplomatic approaches by multiple negotiators over the past several years have failed to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran. Mutual hostility, misperception, and flawed diplomacy may be responsible. Yet, more fundamentally, no mutually acceptable deal may exist. To assess this possibility, a “negotiation analytic” framework conceptually disentangles two issues: (1) whether a feasible deal exists; and (2) how to design the most promising process to achieve one.

The Iranian Nuclear Negotiations: What's Been the Blockage

Charles G. Cogan — Tue, 11 Dec 2012 13:37:45 -0600

"Suspicion on both sides — Iranian and American — is extremely high. Iranian fear of American-sponsored regime change may seem unrealistic in today's world, but the fact is that Iran was the victim of an American regime change back in 1953."