(2) Evidence, which may itself be true and verifiable, used to deduce a conclusion which does not follow from it, usually by generalizing from an insufficient amount of evidence. For example “my grandfather smoked like a chimney and died healthy in a car crash at the age of 99″ does not disprove the proposition that “smoking markedly increases the probability of cancer and heart disease at a relatively early age”. In this case, the evidence may itself be true, but does not warrant the conclusion.

Contrast that with Scientific/Empirical Evidence:

Scientific evidence is evidence which serves to either support or counter a scientific theory or hypothesis. Such evidence is expected to be empirical and properly documented in accordance with scientific method such as is applicable to the particular field of inquiry.

Anecdotal evidence is using your personal experiences and stories to illustrate your point. Empirical evidence is measured, unbiased, and replicable. Yes, numbers can lie, especially if you mess up the calculations, but making conclusions based off one person’s anecdotal evidence is just dangerous.

Anecdotes are fine, just have the numbers to back them up.

[Img credit: Sébastien Magro via Flickr]

As part of the write-up, iSites was kind enough to help me build my very own iPhone app

I am excited and proud to announce the release of the Ben Parr iPhone App [iTunes], now available in the iTunes store!

The app, which you can see below, provides a direct link to my BenParr.com articles, my Twitter feed, and the ability to share my thoughts with everyone else. In the coming weeks, I’ll be adding some more feeds, including my Mashable article feed.

You can download the app now from the iTunes store. Let me know what you think in the comments!

Making a New Year’s Resolution is admirable: it’s an indication that you strive for self-improvement. It’s noble to want to be more charitable, to become physically fit, to quit smoking, or to make one of thousands of different changes that can make you happier and stronger.

Yet while a majority of people make these resolutions, only about 14% of women and 22% of men keep their resolutions. Another study says that number is even lower.

Why do so many people fail? Yes, part of it is the simple fact that many of these goals (especially losing weight) are very difficult to accomplish, things that only those with seriously long-lasting willpower ever accomplish. However, there is another reason why people fail: New Year’s Resolutions put you in the wrong mindset.

A New Year’s Resolution tends to begin on the New Year – you set a specific time and date to begin. That’s the first problem: you’ve already procrastinated by setting a future date. If you really intend to change something and it’s that important to you, you shouldn’t wait even an extra week to begin changing yourself for the better. New Year’s Resolutions promote procrastination from the start, which almost always sets you up for failure.

The other problem with New Year’s Resolutions: they treat lifestyle changes as specific events with start times and end times. For anyone who has lost weight and kept it off, they know that there is never an end time to a lifestyle change: it’s a permanent change you keep up forever. I dropped 40 pounds (204 to 164) years ago, but once I hit 164, I didn’t just revert to my old habits. If I had, I’d have gained the weight right back.

I’m not saying don’t make a New Year’s Resolution or resolve to change yourself. What I am saying is that you must treat any change you make for the better as a lifestyle change, something that will become a permanent part of your life. If you can’t commit to permanent change, then you have a problem.

And stop procrastinating; just start now.

I appeared on CNN Thanksgiving morning with CNN’s Josh Levs to give some quick pointers on how to manage your Facebook privacy settings. Facebook privacy made headlines again when a woman lost her health benefits due to Facebook.

For details about my appearance on CNN, you can check out our Mashable article about it.

What some entrepreneurs overlook though is the importance of mentorship. It’s not just about having a board of advisers, but building honest and long-lasting relationships, long before you start your own company. It’s about realizing that a good adviser is delighted to help when you give him or her a call. It’s also about realizing that, for the most part, you don’t know what the hell you’re doing.

Having someone to talk to, someone who has been in your shoes, is invaluable. No matter what work experience you’ve accumulated, starting and building a company is a unique experience. Even if you’ve successfully built and sold a startup, the second go-around will be different. There’s never enough you can learn: this is why you need to turn to people you trust and that have the experience. I’ve been lucky enough to have several great entrepreneurial mentors that have not only taught me what they’ve learned, but provide me with honest (and sometimes brutal) feedback on all of my ideas.

That’s another important point: a good mentor isn’t afraid to give you a reality check. Despite what some people will tell you, some ideas do suck. The best mentors want you to succeed and have seen the pitfalls that have trapped countless starry-eyed entrepreneurs.

Now for Some Advice:

I’m pretty sure that none of what I said above should surprise you, yet it’s important to reinforce how important mentorship is to a successful startup. With that said, here’s my advice on finding a mentor and getting the most out of the relationship

1. Start reaching out to potential mentors now. You want to build these relationships long before you need them.

2. When you start a new job, find yourself a mentor. It’s a great place to find someone older and wise to not only help you through the company, but to hone your skills. It’s just as important to find a mentor that will help you develop your product, engineering, and management skills, especially fresh out of college.

3. Don’t just network, but talk, ask, and keep in touch. We all know that networking’s important, but it’s the follow-up that builds relationships. If you hit it off with a potential mentor, ask them if they’d be willing to answer your questions or give you advice in the future. Actually follow through though.

4. Actually take their advice. Put your ego aside and realize why you asked someone to become your mentor.

5. Remember, people like to be mentors. A lot of people feel as if they’re intruding in a person’s time asking them for advice, when in fact most mentors welcome it with open arms. There’s a unique and fulfilling feeling to being a mentor and providing advice, so don’t be afraid to simply ask.

A special note to Troy Henikoff and Mark Achler: Thank you for all of the mentorship you’ve given me so far and for the relationships we have built.

While this video is a few weeks old, It would be silly for me not to post this awesome video of me on CNN (via phone) on September 26th. The segment actually aired twice that day. I was up at 4:00 AM on a Saturday morning to do it with CNN’s Josh Levs.

As a reminder, you can see more of my media appearances and speeches/talks on my Media page.

Tell me how you think I did in the comments (don’t hold back).

Jason Fried of 37Signals has once again brought down the reality check hammer, about something I keep harping about: profit.

Here’s some business 101:

Revenue – Cost = Profit.

It’s not Venture Capital + Growth = Profit, or Pageviews + Buzz = Profit. Yet in web entrepreneurship, this simple equation doesn’t always click. So Jason Fried wrote about it after an NYT article that’s more than ironic. My favorite paragraph from his article:

“If there was an airline that flew more passengers than anyone else, but lost money on each one, would we call it a success? If there was a restaurant that served more people than anyone else, but lost money on each meal served, would we call it a success? If there was a store that sold more product than anyone else, but took a loss on each one, would we call it a success? Would the business press hold these companies up as business model successes? Would anyone? Interesting, maybe. Promising, sure. But successful? Then what the hell is going on with the coverage of our industry?”

No business is a success until it has a profit. Twitter is a success as a platform, but certainly not as a business. If it can’t prove its viability, it will die just like any other high-profile business.

Tech enetrepreneurs: do yourself a favor and read the entire article, and then watch David Heinemeier Hansson’s Startup School 08 talk, which really shows you why you should care about revenue:

First, let me summarize Scoble’s post. Really simply, it boils down to this: businesses. Twitter has seduced thousands of businesses to use it as their promotional tool, even over Facebook, and Twitter isn’t losing those companies anytime soon. With thousands of potential paying businesses, Twitter could generate significant revenue to justify a $5 billion valuation.

No go pro argument comes without a con, though, and my favorite counter argument comes from my friend Alex Wilhelm on TechGeist:

I fully agree with Robert that Twitter will not have trouble monetizing. I also agree that Twitter is kicking Facebook’s ass in the business domain. To think otherwise is foolish. Twitter is getting bigger, and it is not going away. Robert is right, correct, and dead on until we reach his financial numbers.

Essentially Alex plays the P/E game, where he estimates the potential revenue of Twitter, assumes a very high P/E (Price/Earnings ratio) of 100, and concludes that “at $125 per business per month, you need 38,666 paying businesses” to justify $5 billion.

Usually I take a middle ground, but in this case, I’m going to side with Robert Scoble, with one exception, which I will address at the end. Scoble doesn’t give out any numbers for his $5 Billion valuation, while Alex does. However, Alex ignores all of Twitter’s other potential revenue sources. A few:

- Twitter.com Advertising
- Mobile Advertising
- Twitter Search Advertising
- A Twitter version of AdSense
- Media Deals

It’s late, so I’m clearly blanking out on a half dozen other business models. Twitter Search advertising and a Twitter version of AdSense interest me the most, and you’ll probably see Mashable articles on both subjects at some point.

On top of this, I think Alex ignores the potential of individuals purchasing premium accounts. What, you don’t think Robert Scoble or Ashton Kutcher wouldn’t pay for some detailed analytics? Dream on.

So one last time, let’s do the numbers. Let’s assume a P/E of 100, like Alex does. Let’s assume 10,000 businesses and 10,000 individuals pay for Twitter premium accounts, and that it averages out to $100 a month:

100 x $100 x (10,000 x 2 x 12) = $2.4 Billion

Advertising gets trickier, but if you get 4 million clicks on a Twitter ad network worth $0.50 each, you’d already make up most of the difference.

Let me be clear: Twitter is not worth $5 Billion yet. But Twitter could get to that valuation with an advertising/subscription account combination. At the very least, I’d roll the dice on it.

Oh, and if your curious about my one exception, it is this: Facebook can still win over businesses that have chosen Twitter as their promotional tool. More on that in the future.

This summer, Mashable (where I am editor) has been part of a major charity drive: The Summer of Social Good. It’s been a huge initiative on our part to use the power of social media and social networks to do some good for the world. The money raised will go to four charities:

- Livestrong
- Oxfam America
- The Humane Society
- World Wildlife Foundation

So far, the Summer of Social Good has raised over $30,000, In two days, the closing event and conference will take place and the Summer of Social Good will end.

That’s why I am going to make the case for donating by this Friday, August 28th. I could list a million reasons why you should donate – and you can come up with a million more – but these seven reasons really call out to me, and I hope they call out to you. Please donate to the summer of social good.

1. Because We Have an Obligation to the World

We’ve taken so much from this world, it only seems natural that we’re obligated to give back to help it. There are millions of people that aren’t even fortunate enough to have a hot dinner, not to mention a computer and an Internet connection. If we don’t take care of each other and the planet we live on, we’re in for serious trouble.

2. Because It’s So Easy to Do

The web’s made it easier than ever to give back. PayPal, electronic banking, and social apps (i.e. Causes). Or, in the case of the Summer of Social Good, widgets:

Yes, all you have to do is click “donate now.” I will give you a strong thumbs-up (or a mini-party) if you do.

3. Because You’d Be Donating to Four Great Charities That Create Major Social Change

If you have never heard of LiveStrong, the Humane Society, Oxfam America, or the World Wildlife Foundation, here’s your quick charitable education. Each cause is beyond worthy of your support:

1. Livestrong: More than 12 million worldwide are diagnosed w/ cancer and 8mil will die from the disease each year. We will end the stigma of cancer and turn cancer victims into cancer survivors, build an international grassroots movement, take cancer from isolation to collaboration and ,together with world leaders, will transform cancer from obscurity to a global priority.

2. Humane Society: Established in 1954, The HSUS seeks a humane and sustainable world for all animals—a world that will also benefit people. We are America’s mainstream force against cruelty, exploitation and neglect, as well as the most trusted voice extolling the human-animal bond. Our mission statement: Celebrating Animals, Confronting Cruelty.

3. Oxfam America: One in six people worldwide now suffers from chronic hunger. More than 2.5 billion people live in poverty, struggling to survive on less than $2 a day—and the numbers are growing. But we at Oxfam believe that it doesn’t have to be this way. If we work together, we can turn the numbers in the other direction. Along with individuals and local groups in over 100 countries, we save lives, help people overcome poverty, and fight for social justice.

4. WWF: Our environment and earth’s future is in great danger. It is estimated that, over 75% of the world’s marine stocks are currently over fished, we lose 36 football fields of rainforest on the earth every minute and we will possibly lose up to 10,000 species this year. NOW is the time for action. WWF needs your help to strengthen global awareness of these issues and ensure that the best possible solutions are implemented for a sustainable future.

You’re saving the world by helping these charities. Period.

4. Because You’re Proving Social Media Can Change the World

Ever hear someone dismiss Facebook or Twitter as dumb wastes of time? This is your chance to prove them wrong.

The Social Media Smackdown and Twestival have been great demonstrations of the power of social media in changing the world. If you haven’t had the chance to show the world that social media really is a driving force in our society with these charities, then now’s your chance with a donation to the Summer of Social Good.

5. Because You Don’t Have to Even Donate Money to Help

Wait, what?! Isn’t the Summer of Social Good a charity drive? Yes, yes it is, but that does not mean you can’t help these great charities via social media in other ways. In fact, my colleague Sharon Feder highlighted 5 great ways to help the Summer of Social Good. I’m going to summarize the first four right now:

1. Donate.

2. Retweet: Ford Motors is donating $1.50 for each retweet of Top 10 YouTube Videos for Social Good and $2.00 for each retweet of HOW TO: Support Social Good on Your Blog. 30 seconds and you’ll have helped donate $3.50 to charity.

3. Watch a Video: Ford is once again displaying its generosity by donating $1 for every video view of the Ford Fiesta Movement video. Watch a video, save the planet.

4. Attend the Summer of Social Good Conference This Friday.

6. Because You Can Help Us Understand The Web’s Impact on Charitable Giving

Social media and charitable giving have been uncharted waters, and we’ve learned a lot from running this campaign. However, your input, thoughts, and donations on the Social Good survey will help improve charitable giving on the web for years to come.

7. Because We Need You

I hope you will support me and the Mashable team in our efforts to change the world for the better. I cannot even begin to explain my passion for making this world better. I hope you have a similar passion, no matter how you choose to make your mark.

If you’ve been following my Twitter account, you might have noticed some new Post.ly links, pictures of cute animals, and even a photostream of the Congressional Roundtable I attended yesterday.

That’s because I have set up a new, complementary blog to BenParr.com, powered by Posterous, a YCombinator-funded company. The purpose of the Posterous blog is primarily to share photos and the little gems that I find on the web.

It’s a more lighthearted blog – thus why I am going to consistently post pictures of cute animals to lighten your day. But when I am on the go, I will use it over TwitPic or YFrog to share what I am doing or who I am meeting with. I hope it better organizes what I’m doing and gives me a new avenue to share the best things I find on the web.

BenParr.com will still be my primary blog. I will continue to post my insights, my interviews, and my projects on this blog. I will post commentary that I don’t place on Mashable here. In fact, you will soon see an increase in blog posts on BenParr.com due to a new project/experiment I’m hoping to announce this week.

If you’re interested in keeping up my Posterous posts/photos, you can subscribe here. I also suggest subscribing to BenParr.com because there’s a lot of new and useful content coming soon.

- Ben