BOTW: 2pts on Man United to beat Liverpool @ 2.00

How are we all keeping?  I thought it was about time I gave everyone a bit of an update on how things are looking for our opening positions.  I’ve also got a couple of other positions to add into the mix and a bet for tomorrow to boot.  Happy days.

Before I move on to all of that though, a quick plug for a piece my team at work put together this week.  I might not write big pieces for BOTW here very often these days, but I have great news – you will be getting one a month from now on through Sporting Solutions.

So please do have a read, and even better pop a comment on the article over on the website if you have anything particular to say.  It would be much appreciated.

And if you are a Twitter user, please do add us @SportingSols.

Right, enough that’s enough work promotion for now.  Let’s get back to BOTW.

Open positions update

Our current open positions are a mixed, but but hopefully considerably profitable bunch.

I think we can safely say that I got it about as wrong as you possibly can in Birmingham this year.  It turns out Steve Clarke knows what he is doing.  And I certainly didn’t expect the severity of Aston Villa’s youth movement.  That’s all I plan on saying on that one!  Shambles.

On a more positive note, the 6% position on 0-3 managers to be sacked at 4.50 looks like it could be a winner.  We are covered on 4 changes in the season to smaller stakes, but with only Mark Hughes and Roberto Di Matteo having been shown the door half way through January things are looking good.

I think this one might just sneak home for a healthy winner.

In the assists market the smaller position on Antonio Valencia is likely dead.  The massive 5% e/w position on Wayne Rooney still has life, and would likely be very exciting had Rooney not missed a third of the games so far this season with two innocuous injuries.

Here are the current leaders:

Premier League Assists as @ 11/01/13

As you can see, when fit, Rooney has been keeping great pace - especially given his 40/1 preseason price.  If he hadn’t just missed home games against Newcastle and West Brom he might even have been in one of the magical top 4 positions we need him to secure.

The City boys remain dangerous – especially given they are out of the Champions League.  That said, David Silva’s 2/1 price is ridiculous   I can only assume this is defensive pricing as Boyles are significantly exposed on him.  The same with Rooney’s 8/1 price now. I wonder who caused that…

Eden Hazard has cooled off considerably after a hot start, and Juan Mata either tires quickly or has offended someone at Chelsea.

I personally backed RVP earlier this season at 26/1 and I am very happy to hold that position.  15/1 is probably about right for him.

I am also going to take two more small positions in this market – on Steven Gerrard and Theo Walcott.  As per the discussion on the RVP thread, Walcott has cemented himself in Arsenal’s front three, and with their fluid style of play any forward player can rack up assists irrespective of position.  20/1 is a good each way price.

So I am getting a range of positions open at long prices on this one – any winner (or even two places) will see me take a healthy return.

Oh, and our most recent bet… 4.5… to 1.57… in a fortnight.

Consider that one bossed.

This weekend’s action

This weekend I am backing Brighton to kick on after their great win against a struggling Newcastle side by beating Derby County at the AMEX at even money.

Not much explanation needed really.  I’d make them 1.8 for this game.  Simple.

BOTW: 3pts on Brighton to beat Derby @ 2.0

1pt e/w on Theo Walcott to be Top Assist Maker @ 21.0

1pt e/w on Steven Gerrard to be Top Assist Maker @ 15.0

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Sorry for not keeping to my promise of regular posting.  When your job involves 12 hours a day of sports betting related tasks, but doesn’t leave free time for writing for BOTW, it i tough to motivate myself to churn out pieces for the site like I used to when I do get home.

However, as we come into the festive period  I have a few days off and therefore the rare combination of both the time and inclination to put something together.

And I think I have a little Christmas cracker for you.

I think Bet Victor have been particularly lazy in their pricing of the PFA Player of the Year market. 

The non runners

There a number of names in the top 20 of this list that have absolutely no right in being there.

I am not going to go through them all one by one, but specific points of note would be:

1. Being a “convicted” (in the footballing rather than legal sense) racist is not good for your chance of winning an award which is voted for by your fellow colleagues.  Not good at all.
2. Although admitted slightly less  offensive, committing ABH doesn’t go down too well either

So that rules out Messrs Suarez and Fellaini for me.

The best of the rest

That leaves us with about ten candidates to pick up this years gong.

I don’t fancy either of the Chelsea candidates (Mata, Hazard) chances of wining this season, given their dismal performance and the negativity current around the club following the exit of Roberto Di Matteo.  A Chelsea winner this season just doesn’t pass the gut check.

That leaves us with only two non-Mancunian candidates – Santi Cazorla and Gareth Bale.

Cazorla is a great little player, and the sort of player the fans love to watch.  However, despite this first season certainly being classed as a success, he has been inconsistent at times and with Arsenal’s patchy early season form I can’t see him prospering in what is such a tough market.

Gareth Bale is a previous winner from two season prior after the 2010-11 season.  And that is exactly why I don’t think he stands a chance this year.  He is playing well, that is for sure.  And Spurs are contending again for a top 4 spot, whilst also playing some good stuff.

But it is tough work to win this award twice, and he is far from tearing the league apart so I don’t expect to see history repeat itself – well, with respect to the Welsh winger anyway…

The Manchester massif

That leaves us with six candidates from the two Manchester clubs – Robin Van Persie (7/2f), Wayne Rooney (16/1), Sergio Aguero (25/1), Carlos Tevez (33/1) and Yaya Toure (20/1).

David Silva and Vincent Kompany are also lingering around, but to be honest I see more potential for success lingering around outside my local corner shop.

Now unlike in the betting markets, a glance at the historical winners of the award shows that there is little evidence of anti Man United bias in the voting, with one of SAF’s men picking up more than half of the awards this century (7/13).

And I think we will be looking at another success for the red side of the city again this year.

United are slight favorites for the title at this stage – although I would hesitate there is a long way to go and things can change quickly , especially coming into Christmas week.

Only two players –  the breathtaking 2002-04 Thierry Henry and the 2006-08 machine that was Ronaldo – have managed to capture the attention of the league’s best players for two consecutive seasons.

However, barring injury, I believe that Robin Van Persie has done enough to join that elite class.

• Highly controversial August move to your main rivals?  Check.
• Season saving come-from-behind hat-tricks?  Check.
• Leading the scoring for the team top of the league?  Check.
• Providing high profile assists and general quality of play?  Check.
• Last minute, match winning free-kicks in the biggest game of the season?  Check.

I won’t labour the point.  Well, I guess I have already.  I shall step away from the pipe.

Barring a run of goals and performance from Wayne Rooney a la 2009-10, or a magical Man City revival, the trophy is already heading the Dutchman’s way.

The cunning stunt

And here is the clever under the radar part.

Man City may very well fight back and inspiring by any one of their many stars, pip united and retain their title.  I look forward to sitting back and enduring it.

However, it still won’t be enough to win one of their players the award, however exicted Martin Tyler gets.

Because the voting for this award closes in March.

Which is just about the time Messrs RVP and Rooney will be taking their free audition in front of the entire voting population during two great Champions League ties with the mighty Real Madrid…

And while all this is going on City’s star names are having a sulk and refusing to come of the bench for the last 20 minutes of a cold, miserable Europa League…

Oh wait, hang on a minute.  Ajax did what?! Oh my…

BOTW: 8pts on Robin Van Persie to be PFA Player of the Year @ 4.5

1pt on Wayne Rooney to be PFA Player of the Year @ 17.0

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I’m at a wedding today so I can’t do a theory piece unfortunately.

However, it only takes 5 minutes to spot the value on today’s coupon – Newcastle to beat Swansea at odds against is a crazy price.

Get involved.

BOTW: 3pts on Newcastle to beat Swansea @ 2.05

After a terrible first 10 minutes, QPR actually played pretty well in their 1-1 draw with Reading last week – and I am convinced they held good value at 1.87.

When the opposing goalkeeper gets Man of the Match, you know you were pretty close to getting home.  Alex McCarthy’s save from Estaban Granero’s free kick was the best I have seen in a long time and Adel Taarabt was also denied by the lanky keeper late on – although more blame lies at the feet of the Moroccan than credit is due to McCarthy on that occasion.

It’s pretty difficult to have as many attempts on target as QPR did and not pick up three points – especially at home.  However, that’s life and often the way for teams that are short on confidence.

Let’s move  on to this week’s action.

Back to the Meadow

My first selection of the day is backing old BOTW favourite Notts County to beat Crawley Town at Meadow Lane.  County started the season well, briefly topping the table, but have spluttered somewhat in recent weeks - cumulating in a four game home win less streak.  I think they will be 100% up for this one, especially against a fellow promotion chaser in Crawley – who despite only squeaking promotion from League Two last season, are fast becoming a marquee fixture for anyone in this league.

Notts are out at 2.4 for this game and I would have them closer to 2.0 that 2.4, that is for sure.

Sky (blue)  high prices

Another absolute gimmie down in League 1 is 2.06 for a rapidly improving Coventry to beat a rapidly-being-relegated Scunthorpe.

Coventry have been flying since Mark Robins was appointed – with only three single goal defeats – two of which were at the hands of strong opposition (Brentford, Notts County).  They come into the game on a 6/2/2/+10  run in their last ten games in all competitions.

However, they will still be 100% focussed for this game, as they still lie in a very precarious position in the table given their horrendous start to the campaign.

This one is an absolute a no-brainer – even considering Scunthorpe’s shock 4-1 win away at Walsall last time out.

For those looking to fill out a coupon or for something more aggressive, I also like Brighton away at Wolves today (especially the lay of Wolves for those that are comfortable on the exchanges and I am also laying Everton at a very short 1.5 at Goodison versus a struggling Sunderland side.  There are worse things you could do with a fiver this weekend than backing Martin O’Neill’s men to pull off a shock at 7/1 that is for sure.

As a heads up to ensure people get the value, I am also taking a position on the Chelsea game tomorrow – however, I won’t have time to write about that until tonight or tomorrow.  But feel free to get on it today in case the price moves – if you trust me of course!

BOTW: 3pts on Coventry to beat Scunthorpe @ 2.06

1.5pts on Notts County to beat Crawley @ 2.4

0.5pts on Brighton to win at Woles @ 3.1

0.25pts on Sunderland to win at Everton @ 8.0

2.5pts on Chelsea to beat Liverpool @ 2.0

1.5pts on Chelsea v Liverpool to be a draw @ 3.8

Let’s be honest, you thought I had given up on you didn’t you?!  Fear not, fear not, BOTW will be back as promised for the rest of the season.

My job makes it difficult for me to post throughout the year now, but over the next few months I will have a bit more time to focus on the football and will be back posting here regularly.

Like all good sleeping dogs, I have been keeping one eye on things over the first couple of months and with teams now bedded in, it is the perfect time to start picking off a few slack prices.

Sadly for you guys, I wasn’t able to pass on the unbelievable value that Cardiff represented back in August, which was brought to my attention after I posted my ante post positions.  The bookies had them down for their standard 6th place finish and about 70 points coming into the season.  As they sit top of the pile on pace for 90 points (with the best goal difference) and seven wins from seven at home under their belt, we can safely say they were “undervalued” by the market.

A jolly good start 

Most of our ante post selections are looking fantastic.  Fulham are off to a great start, and despite West Brom’s fantastic early showing, I expect them to comfortably outlast the Baggies, West Ham and Stoke.  I even still hold great hope for our exposure to Aston Villa.  Aside from the horrendous performance at St Mary’s, I don’t think their performances have been as bad as the results appear.  And although Sunderland are in a terrible rut, the three points gained at TSOL yesterday should not be underestimated.

Over the long haul, I do still think they will reign West Brom in.  Lambert has them set up efficiently – solid at the back (9th), but with slightly more licence to play than under Alex McLeish, which should see them improve marginally on their current strike rate (16th).  The balance of those two should see them manage something around a 12th place finish.

The ante post positions that are looking particularly robust are our manager turnover and most assist positions.

We are now heading into the crucial month of November (when the highest proportion of manager changes are made) and there hasn’t been a single change.  Tony Fernandez seems sincere in his support of Mark Hughes – and rightly so in my eyes and only Nigel Adkins seems particularly at risk.

When Roberto Mancini is the 3rd favorite to go you know you are in good shape.  Even our little tinkle on there to be an unprecedented no changes in the season is making it’s way up the list at this stage – although I do still expect a couple of changes before the season is done, it is always good to see your long odds value selections creeping in.

In the assists market, both Wayne Rooney and Antonio Valencia are off to fantastic starts, and with RVP firing on all cylinders fro the off the changes to United’s style of play have been exactly as I anticipated.  And while United continue to be susceptible at the back, we are only in for even more goals!

Now, Eden, you make sure you start to investigate all that west London has to offer on a Thursday night if you will.  And no need to stretch those Hamstrings either come to think of it…

Today’s action

I am betting that the QPR revival starts today at home against a Reading side that must be absolutely exhausted after their 5-7 antics in midweek.  Brian McDermott will have had to balance a fine act this week – trying to pick his players up off the floor and rebuild their confidence, whilst having to simultaneously attempt to address the defensive issues that cost them the game midweek.  That will be no mean feat given some of the hard truths that would required. 

Ironically, QPR have had the full week off to get their house in order as they lost 3-2 to to The Royals at Loftus Road in September.  However, I think this is another thing that works in our favour today.  Although small, lessons will have been learnt by Hughes and players a like that night and there will be the odd individual score to settle out on the pitch.

Check out the table below, which shows the bookies expected points for each team versus those they have actually achieved.  This analysis can be a fantastic indicator of value at this stage of the season.  

Premier League Points 2012/13 – Expected vs. Actual – as @ 1st November 2012

For those that are new to betting analysis, you may be wondering how I have calculated the expected points for each team.

This can actually be done relatively easily from the odds of each fixture but converting the bookies prices to an implied probability for the three outcomes.   For more on that, have a look at this old article.

From there, you can simply multiply the % chance a team has of winning the game by 3 (points) and the % chance of the game being a draw by 1.  Add these two together and, voila, you have your points estimate for the game.

Obviously you can’t get 2.2 points from a game.  But over a number of fixtures it is the best way to assess performance whilst stripping out the annoyance of fixture list bias at this early stage.

Where does the value sit?

It is important to note that where the value lies in this table may not be obvious, and is certainly not intuitive.

Firstly, it is important to recognise that the difference between actual and expected performance can be one of two things:

a) A weaker/stronger team being fundamentally over/under valued by the market; or

b) A weaker/stronger team that has under/over performed in the short term and is therefore likely to see some regression to their mean performance level

Both of the above scenario’s can represent value, with the former likely continuing to show value that has previously been evidenced.  The best example of that I would suggest to be West Ham, who are organised and competitive in each and every game under Big Sam.

Int he case of the latter, I believe QPR are most definitely the biggest under performance relative to overall ability.  You don’t need to be a genius to figure that out mind, given they are bottom of the league.  However, as a counter example, I am not sure that Southampton have the regression anticipated coming their way.  Defensively I have grave concerns for their ability to defend to an acceptable standard in this league.

This table makes even more interesting reading in light of yesterday’s results.

You may notice that eight of the top ten teams were in action yesterday.  Relative to expectations, only Man united chalked up a materially positive result.  Chelsea and Man City only managed to chalk up draws from (tough) odds on away games. (That is a separate point for another day!)

The Fulham and Everton game was as close a fixture as you are likely to see and although both sides will likely be satisfied with their weeks work, the single point isn’t particularly valuable to either side.

Then to round it out, Tottenham and Sunderland both lost home games to under performing sides expected to finish in the bottom half come seasons end.  Oops.

You may be surprised to see that Man United sit at the top of the list in terms of excess points versus expectations and profitability after a supposedly ropey start to their campaign.  I have probably talked about this enough and we have backed Man United an awful lot on this blog.  That is because we are sensible, rational sports bettors.

But a quick look here will show you all you need to know.  No draws.  Zero.  And a big win away from home at Stamford Bridge.  That’s how you get ahead in this game.  The draw really is the curse of all teams with title winning aspirations, not the random defeats.

Something that too many managers at top sides have failed to learn from SAF over the years – or the pressure they are under has made them too scared to lose.

Let’s hope that today Mark Hughes remembers this from his time at Old Trafford – and as a result his team aren’t afraid to lose what is a crucial game in kick starting their season.

BOTW: 2pts on QPR to beat Reading @ 1.87

How are we all?  Apologies for not getting some thoughts up on the upcoming football season sooner, but here they are – with 36 hours to spare no less!  Hopefully some of you managed to get on yesterday’s “Special Delivery” before the price dried up.  It didn’t stick around for long sadly!

Before I move onto this season, let’s have a quick look at the chip wrap from May…

Old news

Last year’s ante post selections were, on the whole, profitable.  However, they were very, very close to being glorious.  Sadly a couple of great value positions either fell at the final fence or ran out of steam down the back straight.

Easy! Easy!

The top goal scorer market was as close to a clean sweep as we could have wished for.  It would have been marginally more profitable had Rooney landed the boot and RVP second spot, but hey let’s not complain at a 10/1 winner and a 9/1 e/w shout following it home.  Both of these were at a canter too.

Although my cover bet on Didier Drogba (a minimal 0.5pts) was a loser, I think Didier did more than enough in the final third of the season to prove just how much of a handful he still is and how things could have been very, very different had the “AVB Experiment 1” been a roaring success.

The BOTY – Wayne Rooney to be the “BNP Top Scorer” at 3/1 – also landed with ease.  This was a ridiculous price, inflated by the goal scoring potential of Darren Bent and Andy Carroll!

My other goal scorer related bet was the one that flagged down the home straight.  After a really solid start, the goals dried up for Daniel Sturridge in the second half of the season, and he finished one goal shy of placing in the aforementioned England-Only top scorer league.  Restored to the team and his favorite role by RDM, Chelsea teammate Frank Lampard really picked it up in the second half to take the final place.  However, for a 20/1 e/w position that was headed up as “a cheeky punt”, I think we got pretty good value for money here.

Demba Boooo, Papa Hissss

Two of my other ant post positions were spoilt in one go by the fantastic revolution on Tyneside.  One of there ever impressive performances was even the difference in the league title in the end.

I was forced to eat my unwise words of “I don’t rate Alan Pardew” on many, many occasions.  Over numerous courses.  And washed down with a pint of “f*ck you”.

This cost me my Sunderland group bet (I take some solace in highlighting Bolton as being way over rated, 12 months after going long on their point tally as one of the most under-rated  and identifying that Stoke’s European exploits would likely suppress their league performance given the size of their squad) and my annual Everton “Best of the Rest” bet which I took out after the season began.

You can’t win them all.  I have Newcastle down to finish about 15^th!  You deserve to take a kicking if you make misreads of that scale.

Birds of a flutter

Another close, but ultimately losing ante post position was a lovely little bet on Norwich, who I rated highly, to be the top promoted team.  This was heavily based on my not rating the odds-on favourites QPR, despite them winning the Championship the year before at a canter.

Oh, how smart am I!  I got those two spot on.  And 2/1, what a lovely price!

And then bloody Swansea turned up.

The Canaries ran them close… very close.  This was the second closest race of the campaign, with Swansea’s injury time equalizer against Liverpool on the final day ensuring that we managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Safe to say I didn’t notice at the time.  I was a little distracted…

The bad stuff

I lumped on West Ham.  They didn’t try.  I swear.

I lumped on Huddersfield.  I was wrong.  I apologize.

I lumped on Wigan’s inevitable demise.  I am still baffled.  For the second season running, Martinez’s men pulled off an absolute miracle – 7/0/2/+9 finish, including wins against Man United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle.  Wow.

Onwards & upwards

Ok, I am afraid this is going to have to be brief this year.  It is gone 2:00am and  I am sat in a Travelodge in Market Harborough.  I have back to back weddings to attend the next two days.  Oh, the joys.

I need to go forth and multiply, sharpish.  Strap yourself in for a whistle stop tour.

Scottish = Value

It’s just a fact of life.  Embrace it, and profit from it.

Well, unless you are talking about Alex McLeish, it turns out.

I am backing Aston Villa to bounce back under Paul Lambert.  The fans will be re-engaged, the squad will be re-energized, key players are due to come back into the team and I fancy them for a top 10 finish.  But taking that price of 2.5 would be madness is my eyes, given that there are 8 places almost set in stone and a number of wildcard teams this year.

Instead, lump on the Lambert’s men in the “Top Midlands” market – where they are only up against Stoke and West Brom this year.

I am low on West Brom this season without the guidance of Roy, I believe Stoke are liable to get caught trying to go to the same well one too many times, 

In an attempt to try and extract even more value, I started studying Coral’s third quartile grouping.  The blanket pricing of this market made me suspicious before I even began.  In addition to the two teams already discussed, although I expect them to stay up I don’t expect West Ham to challenge here.

So for me this market is a straight shoot out between Villa and Fulham, and at 4.33, I’m game. In fact, let’s have a bit of both.  Ooh err.

All change, all change

I am absolutely loving this market.  I am too tired to discuss it, so will save it for my next post.  But get a chunk on 0-3 managers, with a cover on 4 managers in this crazy, crazy market.  The pricing here is just flat out wrong.  Wrong I tell you.  Like, your girlfriends mum style wrong.

They have priced this up based on the numbers here.  But that doesn’t reflect the current state of play at all.  And we are going to take them to the cleaners.

All aboard, all aboard

I am going to take a second position in Boyles’ entertaining, if somewhat haphazard, “Most Assists” market.  I am loving this market.  Loving it.  So much “value” to be had in terms of tracking your bets here throughout the campaign.

It is such a refreshing change from the Top Goal Scorer market - which is as tight as a nun’s wotsit this year.

I am going to take a second Man United based exposure by backing The Ecuadorian Express e/w at 22/1 with Paddy Power.  I accept competition for places in the United side is going to be tough this year.  But Valencia is just coming into his prime, has a couple of years under his belt and should be back to a good level of fitness.

You can’t wear the United No. 7 shirt and not stand a good chance of chalking up 10 assists in a season.  That’s just a fact of life.

And finally…

Just for that tiny hope of being able to say “I told you so” have yourself a miniscule little tinkle on “No manager to leave” at 100/1 with Hills.  It’s a silly bet.  It’s a silly price.

And if, for once, it isn’t “the silly season” you’ll get one of the most rewarding winners ever…

BOTW: 4 pts on Aston Villa to place above West Brom and Stoke @ 2.5

2 pts on Aston Villa to place above Fulham, West Brom, Stoke and West Ham @ 4.33

2 pts on Fulham to place above Aston Villa, West Brom, Stoke and West Ham @ 4.33

6 pts on 0-3 EPL managers to leave their posts in 2012/13 @ 4.5

2 pts on Exactly 4 EPL managers to leave their posts in 2012/13@ 4.33

1 pt e/w on Antonio Valencia to be top assist-maker @ 22/1

0.25 pts on No manager to leave their post @ 100/1

But reacting the current news, and apologies if my own positions crash this price, but Boylesports are offering 40/1 each way on Wayne Rooney to be top assist maker in the upcoming season.  This is absolute madness.

Go in hard… while it lasts.

That is all.

BOTW: 5pts e/w on Wayne Rooney to be top Premier League assist maker at 40/1

Which is somewhat ironic given what is going on with the Arizona Diamondbacks market price for the second season running.

Those that followed the site last year will no doubt recall the D’backs late season charge which scored us a lucrative win.

I haven’t got time to put together the statistical analysis I did last year – as much due to how quickly this price will collapse as my laziness.

Have a look at the tightness of the NL West standings as current and the usual run difference metric.

The Giants and Dodgers (who are arch rivals) have both upgraded at the trade deadline, which results in all the focus being on them.  However, marginal upgrades at this stage are way over rated and are often only worth 1-2 wins maximum.

I don’t think the D’backs are favorites for the division or anything, just to be clear.  But 8/1 is a huge price.  I’d have them at about 4/1.

Get stuck in for a few points.

BOTW: 3pts on the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the NL West @ 8/1

I don’t have time to put together War & Peace for you on this one, as the price won’t be around for long.  It will be around for such a short time only a handful of the people that read this will actually get on.

There is currently a huge value opportunity in the MLB Al East winners market.

Have a look here – you don’t need to be Inspector Clouseau to spot it either.

Some astute bookies have got the Boston Red Sox down as short as 3/1 for the AL East title. William Hill are still offering 9/1.

The Beantown men are starting to heat up and have players returning to fitness for the second half. The Yankees on the other hand have a chunk of their starting rotation on the Disabled List with injury.

As a word of warning for those that don’t like to obey the staking system I use (!), this is far from a certainty – however, it is a huge margin selection and I can safely say you won’t be seeing 9/1 again for a long time after today!

For those that remember the baseball pieces from last season – check out the run differentials of the AL East teams here.

Enough said.

BOTW: 4pts on the Boston Red Sox to win the AL East @ 9/1