So, having made that statement, I thought it only fair I had a look at the numbers to see how things came out.  Here is a little summary of the results.

Football League results from 15th February 2012

As it turns out there were 19 home wins from the 35 league fixtures that night.  If I had told you that with the average home odds of 2.28, some of you may have figured out that this strategy was a winner without seeing the numbers.  Only 16 wins would have been needed to turn a profit on the night.

Return profile from level 1% stakes

As you can see, the overall return on investment was just shy of 20% (6.86/35).

Not bad for one nights work, eh?

Shame we can’t scratch that out of the coupon on all 46 weeks of the league season – if we could it would result in a 5,520% cumulative profit!

For the record, I certainly don’t recommend anyone trying to follow a strategy such as this and it certainly isn’t one you would expect to churn a profit on a weekly basis.

How did I come to the conclusion there was home value in this coupon?  It’s just one of those things you pick up with practice I guess.

At my first look through the coupon, I highlighted about 10 home teams I really liked and only one away team.  Normally that ratiowould be nearer five homes for every away.

The moral of this idle tale

There really isn’t one.

I just thought it was (semi) interesting – and once I had made the prediction I felt I had to follow it up!

Cheers.

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I hope we are all well.  I have a couple of picks for today that I believe are great value.

My first pick is as simple as it gets.  I am going to back the hottest team in the land, Charlton, to carry on their strong form away at Tramere today at a mind boggling 2.24.  This match up is at most a 10/11 (1.91) shot for me.

Charlton are in great form, and their relative line of 69%/24%/7%/+1.17 is matched only by that of the two Manchester clubs (76%/12%/12%/+1.80, 72%/16%/12%/+1.44) across all four divisions.

However, their form on the road is by far and away the best in the league (11/2/2/+14) – and considerably better than the aforementioned Premier League leaders who have only accumulated a  7/3/3/+14 record.  Let’s have a look at that record in a bit more detail.

Man City – away form 2011/12

Some sterling stuff in there, no doubt about it.  Away wins of 1-5 and 1-6 against your two title rivals should not be understated.

The mean “average” line for a Man City away game this season has been 5.27/3.79/1.97.  However, a mean average line is a pretty useless statistic right?  Every single football match needs to be assessed on it’s own merits and a blanket comparison is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

You will notice I have low-lighted five of the fixtures above.  I think we can safely say that all five of those sides are “top half teams”.  There is no need to complicate matters any more than that and get into a subjective debate.

I think it is also safe to assume that Chalrton’s opposition today, Tranmere, are not a top half team.  So it would make sense to exclude these games from our analysis.

However, to be on the safe side, lets throw everyone else into the mix.

No need to get the calculator out – I’ve done the hard yards for you.  Manchester City’s average price against the remaining sides is a measly 1.54 .  Incidentally, if you had had £10 on Mancini’s men in all eight of these fixtures you would be sitting on a £2 loss.  From £80 staked, that is a -3% ROI.  Seems like those pesky bookies do know what they are doing when market volumes force their hand!

However, I think we all know that 1.54 (64.9%) is not equally to 2.24 (44.6%).  As discussed, City have won 54% of their away games, and 63% against the eight non-premium sides above.

Charlton have won 11 of 15 away games (73%) and 6 of 8 against lower half teams (75%).

Tranmere are 0/5/3/-4 against top half teams at Prenton Park this season, so I see no reason for Chris Powell’s men to be odds against today.

The Posh vs The Cider Army 

My second pick of the day is for SAF junior’s youthful Peterborough side to get back on track with a win against Bristol City at London Road.  At first glance, the Posh have been on a terrible run 0/3/4/+9 – and as such they are a chunky 2.38 to take the three points.

However, draws with Middlesbrough, Birmingham and Burnley are excellent results.  And losses away at Hull and Cardiff are more than understandable.  Even the single goal defeat to a rejuvenated Brighton side is explainable.  So only the heavy defeat to Portsmouth is a real disappointment in my eyes.

Ferguson’s men score goals for fun and they are averaging 2.00 goals a game at home – good for 3rd in the league.  However, they aren’t entrenched in the lower half of the table for no reason – they do leak goals like a broken gas pipe!

However, Bristol City aren’t exactly free scoring (0.87/22nd) themselves and I think there is more than enough in this price to justify a little tinkle.

Cheers.

BOTW: 4pts on Charlton to win at Tramere @ 2.24

1pt on Peterborough to beat Bristol City @ 2.38

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As I promised at the weekend, I am going to get the site back up to full speed over the coming weeks with some new betting theory pieces and a renewed focus on bringing the value to the masses.  After all, we are all enduring what seems to be a never ending recession.

However, before I dive into anything new, I thought it best to have a bit of a spring clean.  I’m not a fan of the hoover, so instead I thought I would review all of the current open positions and see how we are shaped.

Always use a betting “bank”

A quick bit of advice before I start.  If you are actively following tips from BOTW, other betting resources or betting based on your own research, you really should establish a betting bank.  It is very bad practice to bet straight from your bank account and can lead to all sorts of bad habits.

It is important to note that you don’t have to tie up your capital in betting accounts – In fact this is in itself bad practice and opens you up to a number of risks including, fraud, dopeyitis (see below) and corporate insolvency.  Trust me on this one… I used to be a loyal Full Tilt Poker player… My lax attitude and loyalty cost me a decent amount of cash last year. 

The best way to create a betting bank is to carve out some cash from your savings and put it in a separate bank account to your other savings and current account.  In the modern world of online banking there really is no excuse not to do this.

Having a structured betting bank has a number of other advantages in addition to helping mitigate the risks mention above.  It allows you to start following a relative (rather than absolute) staking strategy, increases discipline and I find even sharpens your motivation to do thorough research.  And all of those ultimately protect you against loose bets, reduce losing and increasing net profits.  And after all that is the aim of game. 

Record keeping

If you are treating your betting bank as an investment portfolio, using a relative staking system (i.e. taking positions of 1-10% of available capital) and taking medium and long term positions it becomes crucial to keep proper records.  Not only will this allow you to analyse your performance and manage your risk, but it will also help you avoid the biggest danger of the online betting world – dopeyitis.

Remember that great 20/1 each-way bet you placed on Birmingham to win the Championship back in October?

You picked up nicely on that goal difference regression?  Nice work.  Spotted the poorly priced fixture list imbalance?  Oh yeah.  You had the balls to put your money where your mouth is?  You the daddy.

Roll forward to May… Birmingham finish comfortably in 2nd behind champions West Ham.  Time to pick up your winnings.  

Now… hmmm.  Where did I place that bet again?  Stan James? Paddy Power?

I know I did it through Oddschecker to ensure I got the best possible price.  But that is all I can remember.

This is a serious dose of dopeyitis, and although ultimately it is unlikely to cost you your winnings, that feeling of panic in the pit of your stomach as you frantically log in and out of 27 betting accounts is there for a reason.  To teach you a lesson for not keeping a record of your bets, not analysis your performance and ultimately not controlling your risk.

Just do it.

The silly tales above ring a few bells do they?  If I liked to gamble, I would bet they do with at least 50% of the people reading this.  I know some of my most betting-savvy friends still bet from their current account and don’t keep records…

If you are going to try and make money from this tough game long term, it’s time to get organised.  Today.  Now.

Home and…

Three of our thirteen open positions are looking dandy doodle do.

We have a 1.5% e/w position on RVP to be the Premier League Top Goalscorer at a whopping 20/1.  Unless you have spent the last six month son the moon, you’ve probably noticed that the Dutchman is having an OK year.  Well, by OK year I actually mean KILLING IT.

Here’s how things stand in the scoring charts after 25 games:

EPL Top Goalscorers (Game 25)

Even if he “does a Van Persie” and pulls a hamstring next week, I think the Dutchman has secured the place bet at a minimum.

You will also notice the name of Wayne Rooney, highlighted and  sitting in 2nd place after this brace against Luis Suarez last week.

We also have the united penalty taker for 2% each-way – also at a great 9/1.  I think I can guess how the bookies are feeling about making Javier Hernandez the favourite in the ante-post markets.

I believe the win for one or the other is inevitable in the event they both stay fit.  And with a decent headwind we should take home a win and a place.

Even closer to dry land is our position on Rooney to be the top English goalscorer (2%, 3/1).  As you can see the international flavour of the Premier League has never been more evident than in the current scoring charts.  Rooney’s nearest challengers are the impressive Danny Graham and the ever consistent Darren Bent.

However, I think they will both struggle to even reach Rooney’s current tally of 17, so I think we can chalk up another winner there.

Looking good

I think there are another four of the open positions that are looking very strong.

I took advantage of some significant “London/Money/Other” bias in the Top Promoted Team market early season by taking Norwich City at 2/1 versus Swansea and QPR.  Although the Swans style of play probably draws more media attention, Norwich have been the biggest success story by far and I think Paul Lambert is well on the way to a Manger of the Year award.  And we are well on our way to a nice tasty winner.

However, things aren’t looking quite so good for Wigan Athletic.  Which is a shame for both Latics and wider football fans alike – but great news for BOTW followers.  That is likely to be another winner in the bag.

Down in the Championship, West Ham are also looking good at 3.25 to take the title.  But given they play one of the main rivals Southampton at Upton Park this evening, the less said about that for now, the better.

Struggling for air

Our speculative 20/1 e/w shout on young Daniel Sturridge in the aforementioned Top English Goalscorer market is still alive. He is currently joint third on 9 goals, which would be good enough for a place.  However, his goals have dried up of late and with Chelsea struggling I am expecting this one to come up just short.

However, Huddersfield’s title challenge in League 1 is fading fast and, without a capitulation from the boys down at The Valley, will likely result in us taking a 6% hit.

Two other likely losers are actually due to one downside exposure – my complete misinterpretation of Newcastle United coming into this season.  I don’t feel too bad about it.  I doubt even the most die-hard Geordies didn’t even expect a top 8 finish from their boys.

As a result, Everton will not be taking the “Best of the Rest” title for once this year and despite the best efforts of MO’N, it seems a big stretch to think that Sunderland could make up nine points over the remainder of the season to take the group bet against Newcastle, Stoke and Bolton.

Dead and Buried 

Two off the open positions are already dead and buried, although one of those was only a cover bet – chances are Didier Drobga isn’t going to score twenty goals in Chelsea’s next thirteen games!  Also floating on the surface covered in algae are my speculative ”one to trade later” on Chelsea making a title charge.  The less said about that the better.

Actually, if I am honest, personally I quite like talking about the Blues’ rapid demise under AVB!  Hurrah!

Summary

All in all, I am delighted with my ante post betting on this season.  You are always going to get the odd bust, it’s all part of the game.  However on the whole, we are set to make a nice little profit.

Here’s to a successful end to the season for these positions whilst we also boost the coffers with a few winners down the stretch.

Cheers.

Only kidding.  Hopefully after a couple of false dawns over the last few months the site will be back in full flow in the not too distant future.

Impenitent

Now onto today’s action.  I would hope I have done enough over the last couple of years that long term readers of the site don’t even need this post to have identified the first piece of value on the coupon.

Man United.  At Evens.  At Home.  How many times do we need to do this?!  Injuries or no injuries, get stuck in.  John O’Shea played nigh on 400 games for Man United and they won most of them as well.  The whole is greater than the sum of its parts when SAF is involved. 

We’ve been here many time before.  Many times.

Go Orange

As a thank you for their ongoing sponsoring of the BOTW colours, I am going to back Blackpool to carry on there recent run of form and see off Portsmouth in the televised Championship game later this evening.

It’s a long way from Portsmouth to Blackpool at the best of times.  Let alone in this weather.  Pompey aren’t a bad side, especially and they have shown some signs of promise under yound manager Michael Appleton.

However, there away form has been poor and I can’t turn down the scraps of 1.81 that are hanging around on this one.

Hasta la vista

Three articles to come in the next week… Cross my heart and hope to die!

BOTW: 2pts on Man United to beat Liverpool @ 2.0

2pts on Blackpool to beat Portsmouth @ 1.81

1pt on the Man United/Blackpool double @ 3.61

Very short piece today from me in terms of quantity – but do not let that put you off the quality of the bets.  I think i’ve got a couple of crackers.

First and foremost, as I know you are all here for the football, I am biting Tiziano Crudeli’s arm off and taking the 1.91 one his outfit are offering on a Burnley win at home to Derby.  If someone could bite his other arm off so we don’t have to put up with the diabolical TV adverts anymore that would be ideal.

Eddie Howe is slowly but surely getting his shop in order at Turf Moor, and I expect the The Clarets to end up in the top six.  They are 7/0/2/+11 over their last eleven games including four away wins at Hull City, West Ham, Brighton and Middlesbrough.  Need I say more at that point?

TrashTV.com

I am also returning to the site of BOTW’s biggest ever win and having a dabble on the winner of the current series of Celebrity Big Brother.  Don’t worry guys, you can just trust me and bet on it – watching such trash isn’t compulsory!

After “Trumpet Sonia” was surprisingly evicted last night, the betting markets appear to have lost their way a little over night.  A few people that I don’t think have much chance of winning, for a whole host of different reasons, have been cut (Michael Madsen, The Twins, Romeo) and a few of the people that are in with a really strong shout are good prices.

I think a split stakes position over the housewives favourite, Gareth Thomas, and somewhat surprisingly, the nation’s soon to be enforced new favourite cheeky chappie, Frankie Cocozza will pay out handsomely in a week’s time.

Take a split position weighted in Gareth’s favour.  I may expand on this one later tonight when I get home – but for now I am off to shoot my lowest ever round of golf.

The magical 79.  Today will be the day….

Oh, and for those of you looking to pay for a big night out, there is a Cocozza-esque long odds pick below that I won’t curse by commenting on.

Adios amigos.

BOTW: 3pts on Burnely to beat Derby @ 1.91

3pts on Gareth Thomas to win CBB @ 3.00

1.5 points on Frankie Cocozza to win CBB @ 4.5

1pt on Blackburn to beat Everton @ 6.7

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I hope we are all keeping well.  I am all too aware that I haven’t been about these parts much in recent months – apologies.

Since getting the site really rocking and rolling late last year, I have posted only one piece in the last six weeks or so.

It’s been a pretty manic time for me and something had to be put on the back burner – I was starting to run out of hobs!

I won’t bore you all with the details of exactly why now, but I will try and put something up to let you know what I have been up to in recent weeks in conjunction with a review of the sites open positions.  However, one thing is for sure – my fingers are firmly crossed that Robin Van Persie doesn’t tear a Michael Owen over the coming months!

However, as a more pressing priority, here are a few quick thoughts on today’s coupon:

No Robin needed – ‘cos they’re offering

My favourite selection of the day is Paulo Di Canio’s Swindon side to win at Rotherham at 2.62.  The Robins are on a bit of a tear at the moment, having gone 12/4/3/+20 since losing four games on the bounce by a solitary goal back in August last year.  That’s an extended run of Championship form.

Ironically, the start of that run was an enthralling 3-2 away win at Rotherham.  That game was the beginning of two terrible months for The Millers – they went 1/5/5/-9 in September and October.  At first glance, they appear to have returned to form in recent months, however wins against Aldershot (16th), Bradford (2) (19th), Hereford (21st) and AFC Wimbledon (18th) indicate there has been an element of fixture imbalance contributing to their up and down form.

Di Canio lost five of his first six away from home to open the campaign, but seems to have got a grip on things in recent months – with Swindon going 4/2/1/+5.  Granted two of these wins were against the hapless Plymouth and Northampton sides, however away wins against Port Vale (13th) and Accrington (9th) give me more than enough to back Swindon at a price representing a 38% shot.

Embrace the January Blue-birds

As I plump for my second away win of the day, some of you will no doubt be wondering if my recent lay off has been as a result of a nasty knock to the head!

However, I can’t get away from the 2.20 currently available on Cardiff to win at Doncaster.  Donny are an improved side when compared to the one that started the season, however that isn’t saying much.

Malkay Mackay’s men have kept an impressive six clean sheets in there last eleven games and have risen up the table to be realistic promotion candidates – something which has come as a surprise to many, myself included.

However, they will know the hard work has only just begun and they need to continue there recent form to stay in the picture in a fiercely competitive division.

The main reason I like this bet so much is that The Bluebirds will be mightily disappointed to have lost to Crystal Palace in their big cup semi final in mid week – and as such I expect Malkay will be all over them emphasising that they have achieved nothing yet so far this season and that three points today are imperative.

A few of the Donny players know they are in the shop window, which can raise performance levels – but not enough to put me off at the 2.20 currently available on the Welsh outfit.

Is that really wise?

My final thoughts on today’s coupon is that Sheffield Wednesday are a cracking price to beat Charlton at Hillsborough at 2.40.

Megson’s men are  9/2/0/ +15 at home this campaign, so to make them a 41% shot is farcical in my eyes.  No doubt Charlton are a fantastic team, but they have slowed down slightly in recent weeks and there is more than enough fat in this one to back the midweek men.

I won’t be lumping too much into this one personally, given I already have material exposure to The Addicks as a result of my long term Huddersfield position – one which I still believe has legs if they manage to keep hold of Jordan Rhodes.

The chances of Lee Clark’s men making a second half run at it would certainly be boosted by a glut of home wins in the division today.

OK, so there you have it.

A few suggestions to potentially feather your nest this weekend (that’s the last pun, I promise).  Hopefully I still have a few readers out there despite my six week lay off!   I’ve got a load of articles planned and in draft which I have had to park in recent weeks, but I am going to make every effort to get the site flying (damn it) once again.

It would be great to get the comments and interaction levels up to where they were last year again in 2012.

Good luck and game on!

Adios amigos.

BOTW: 2pts on Swindon to win at Rotherham

2pts on Cardiff to win at Doncaster

1pt on Sheffield Wednesday to beat Charlton

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I just wanted to post a quick note to let people know:

a) That I am not dead; and
b) That I won’t be posting anything meaning again this weekend.

I am currently sat in a hotel room in Prague (iPads are amazing things) where I have headed to thank Mrs BOTW for putting up with me for another year.

However, all exams and other such celebrations are now over and I will be back in the game for the intense Christmas period. After all, I have to find away to pay the bills!

I hope everyone is well and please bear with me during what has been a very quiet time. BOTW will be back to full speed very soon.

I may have an excess of time on my hands soon, so I will have plenty of opportunity to scour the markets and do some theory pieces.

For now, however, I have beer to drink and sights to see.

Cheers

I don’t have time for an article today, but those wanting to pop something on at the 11th hour I dont think you can do much better than a Chelsea/Arsenal home double at 1.88.

Given recent developments at the Bridge, Chelsea are a lock today.  And I think Arsenal’s style of play matches up well with Fulham on the road – I have written enough about their away play over the years.

Enjoy your weekends all – I won’t.

BOTW: 3pts on a Chelsea/Arsenal double @ 1.88

Unfortunately I didn’t manage to find the time to do a full detailed piece in the end.  I am currently studying to sit the CFA Level 1 exam in two weeks time, which is meaning investing time in the site is difficult.  In fact I hope you would all agreed that would certainly be a -EV move for me long term!

However,  I did use the recent international break to update my database for all the games over the first quarter of this season.

We are just getting to the point now where the sample of data is big enough to consider analysing it without risking drawing erroneous conclusions.

One thing I like to look at is “Level Stakes Return” i.e. How much would you have won/lost by backing Team X each and every week, irrespective of opponent.

This can throw up some interesting results – and is a good way to identify both undervalued and overvalued teams.  That is still very much a subjective process.

Has a team recorded a large profit due to fortunate results?  And therefore they are a candidate for regression?

Or is the team fundamentally under/over valued by the market and therefore like to continue to represent a profitable back/lay opportunity in the short to medium term?

Any guesses as to who are the current “League Leaders” for this overall net return  metric?

I expect the Man City, Southampton and Charlton will be higher up on most peoples lists given their fantastic starts to the season.

All three are obviously up near the top of the leader board - currently lying 8th, 9th and 4th respectively.

The Sports Direct Army revolution also see’s Newcastle above Man City in 7th place.  At this stage in the season, the outcomes of this sort of analysis are still heavily influence by high returns generated from away wins.  Newcastle’s wins at Stoke and Sunderland will both have been particularly lucrative and they also picked up a good win at Wolves.

From a betting perspective I fail to see the Toon Army as anything other than a regression candidate.  If you are getting to the point where you are chucking Newcastle in your weekly doubles and trebles, you could be in for a bit of a beating.

The chav sports tatt retailers aren’t actually the Premier Leagues most profitable team (on the pitch obviously).  Any final guesses?

It’s actually QPR.  Even though they sit down in mid table and sporting their -10 goal difference, Warnock’s men are the most profitable Premier League side, sitting 4th in the league – generating a 44% net return from level 5% stakes, due to their shock win against Chelsea and a good away win at Goodison early doors.

Again, I can smell a bit of regression here!

The most profitable team in the league are down in League Two – Cheltenham Town no less.  The Robins are off to a cracking start to the season and five away wins sees them having generated a whopping 65% return.

You may have noticed that I am rather “down” on most of these sides, and I am expecting regression from almost all of these high flying sides.  The sample space is still very small at this time, and comes with a health warning.  However, if you are cautious there is still interesting insight to be had from the analysis.

A bet for today

I extended out the analysis to include the previous two seasons of data as well.  The size of sample can obviously be replied upon and gives you a different look at the situation.

Everyone’s second favorite team(!), Crawley Town came out comfortably top of the “Home return” analysis, driven by their domination of the Conference last year.

However, this is finally  a trend I don’t see reversing.  They are at home today – to a decent Oxford outfit.

However, at 1.83 I believe they represent cracking value.  I would have priced them up nearer 1.6 for this game.

Well worth a couple of points.

Those who like a multiple

I do have a couple of other positions I like – but both turned out to be in the weekends later games.

I am going to have a further look at these just yet, but those looking for multiples I like Chelsea to beat Liverpool at 1.91 and also think that Tottenham are too skinny at 1.57 on Monday night.  I think the 4.3 on the draw for any game involving a) Aston Villa and b) Alex McLeish should be taken.

In this case, A + B = +EV

Cheers

BOTW: 3pts on Crawley to beat Oxford @ 1.83

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There have been a few requests for a discussion post, so here it is.

I will hopefully be back in business with a decent article early tomorrow morning.  I should have time to have a hunt for some value tonight.

Cheers

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