Betting Blog - Betting Picks and Tips - Tour de France 2009 Picks

Tips Stage 8 - Tour de France 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:04:00 +0000

2009 Tour de France
Stage 8

Bet Selection:
Match Ups
Armstrong vs Schleck

Top Price:
1.83 on bet365
Take Schleck

Betting Verdict
I took it that long to elect my tip for this great mountains stage because I was a bit confused yesterday. Contador did what everyone expected from him - massive, solid attack in the closing kms that almost brought him the jersey (however the question for Astana leadership is still open while Lance found he has the legs to follow). I was not able to see who will be in charge of the victory today - I have never seen such behavior from the favorites and so defensive minded teams - this opens gaps and chances for breakaway groups almost every stage.
That is why I will take the match ups strategy for this one and look for Frank Schleck to defend my picks on the start of this year Tour and leave a track in this particular stage, at least. I don't think the route today is suitable for Armstrong and somehow have the feeling he will lost few seconds more and step back in the overall standing. Two category 1 climbs are perfect for Contador and Astana to set the rythm for the whole race and the only team capable of following them should be Saxo Bank and Schleck brothers in particular. Frank and Andy have to prove their excellent reputation of solid climbers and I can not see better stage and moment in the first half of Tour de France for rebuilding some pride.

I will take Schelck for 1.83 to finish ahead of Lance and follow my instinct Schleck brothers will leave a track in mountains stage 8 today.

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Tips on Stage 5 - Tour de France 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:30:00 +0000

2009 Tour de France
Stage 5

Bet Selection:
Cavendish to take another stage victory

Top Price:
1.50 on bet365

Betting Verdict
No one can argue we have lots of action early in this 2009 Tour de France as Astana are fighting to elect a leader (Lance Armstrong looks in shape ahead of mountain stages and missed the yellow on a second in the TTT yesterday) and Columbia shuffled the cards joining the tricky crosswind on Monday.

Assuming Astana are heavy favorites to crush the competition after the team trial on Tuesday but now we should concentrate on the last flat stage before the climbers say “Ole!”. Stage 5 consists of Le Cap d’Agde - Perpignan rout (196.5km) which is mostly flat roads toward the finish in Perpignan. Exactly this wide, straight finish makes me believe we will see again the magic of sprinters’ teams. Is anyone or any team capable of stopping superb Cavendish of taking another one in his pocket? It will be hard but not impossible to join the Columbia train.

How this stage 5 looks like (thanks Eurosport, again - do not forget to watch the action exclusively on this channel - great coverage):

I have Garmin in mind here but rode it hard in TTT and conquered Astana for the overall leadership. Wiggins managed to build upon his great performance in the prologue and now should follow the action closely. I suppose this will be a nice motivation factor for the team which will count on Tyler if they have the position before the final. The question is how many efforts the team has invested in the time trial?

However as I saw how Columbia team is riding this Tour I can not imagine how someone can stop Cavendish if his team leads the sprinter to the final meters. He is in top form, powerful, extremely hard to be followed when once started on sprint. The only way is to find Cavendish not ready on the right position before the fight starts in the last 500 m or so.

Take Cavendish as Columbia obviously preserved efforts yesterday.

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Tips Tour de France - Stage 4

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:46:00 +0000

2009 Tour de France
Stage 4:
Team Time Trial

Bet Selection:
Astana to win TTT WON
Garmin team to follow

Top Price:
1.71 on bet365

Betting Verdict
I was happy to see my winning series continued with tips and picks on 2009 Tour de France as I got the winner in Stage 1 (which is not an achievement at all with Cancellara just crashed the competitors in a world champion manner). Two flat stages followed (just leave them for Columbia and do not mess with Cavendish) and the one on Tuesday seems like the cherry on the cake before so awaiting Saturday entering in the high mountains.

We have the team trial in stage 4 starting and finishing in Montpellier. Let's preview it first, thanks to Eurosport:

I was so tempted to search for a massive upset here and a win for Garmin but Astana were so, so impressive on the prologue that I just can not imagine anyone to steal the win from them. Astana, with Contador, Andreas Kloeden as well as Americans Leipheimer and Lance Arsmtrong, had four riders in the top 10 in Monaco - these are the facts. But what impressed me more was the massive improvement in Contador's time trials and the unique downhill technique for Kloeden. Leipheimer and Lance are tradionally strong in time trials and they were both on the top of their riding. We can easily predict, despite (or because) the longer distance, that they will be unstoppable on Tuesday.

It will be hard enough for Cancellara to get support from Saxo Bank team in the trial, so do not bet on him to hold the whole Astana team. If you dare look for Garmin win here - I still believe Astana are too powerful but in sports there is always a slightly chance for upset and 4.33 looks tasty. Wiggins, who joined Garmin this season, will be helped by specialists David Millar, Zabriskie and Vande Velde and the four were in the top 20 in Saturday's time trial in Monaco.
If you look for more safety bet on this stage 4 of Tour de France you can take the match ups odds and 1.38 for Garmin to beat Saxo Bank.

One more thing - avoid Columbia in your betting selections for this stage - they actually did their TTT in stage 3 and rode massive against the wind in the closing minutes to shuffle the general clasification cards. Armstrong is getting stronger, eh?

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TDF 2009 Picks - Stage 1 - Monaco

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 07:34:00 +0000

I would like to add some thoughts to my betting pick on stage 1 - 2009 Tour de France from yesterday that might make it clearer for those of you who is searching for better odds and a kind of an upsets today in Monaco. Let's first preview the stage 1:

I am drinking my morning coffee now browsing the odds at bet365 and 13.00 for Evans to triumph today started to look tempting. He was always good in trials and will probably stay competitive for this one. Do not get me wrong - I am still pretty sure in Cancellara win here (and actually put my money down on him yesterday) but you know in cycling you will need to have a back up bet for more emotions. So, I will change my second bet from Contador (7.00) to Cadel Evans and enjoy the stage.

I also think Lance is taking this first stage pretty seriously and 12.00 for him also looks like worthy bet. I suppose we all remember his previous time trials in France, eh? "Planet Armstrong" was great to watch on Eurosport yesterday brought back some beatiful memories.

Of course, you can browse all the options on bet365 and choose one for your self.

Do not miss also my betting picks on TDF 2009 winner as the odds are still delicious.
Who is your favorite? Comment or give your vote in the pool on your right.

Tour de France 2009 Betting Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:38:00 +0000

Tour de France 2009
Betting Preview

Features:
To Win Outright Market
Stage 1 - Time Trial Pick

I was waiting for it since the last rider finished last year in Paris. I could smell it during the Giro and really felt it so close when watching Contador and Valverde climbing the Mont Ventoux monster at Dauphiné Libéré. Now it is here - one of the most entertaining sports event in the world - Tour de France 2009 - starts tomorrow on its way from Monaco to Paris. Be sure you will find all the previews, my betting picks on almost every stage of the Tour and few comments more on riders and teams featured at the blog.
If you want the numbers -running from Saturday July 4^th to Sunday July 26^th 2009, the 96^th Tour de France contains 21 stages and will cover a total distance of 3,500 kilometres.
Get on the bike!

Pick on the Winner
As you probably know better than me cycling is one of the hardest sports to bet on - odds are too crazy to be analyzed, too many changing factors, shaking riders form, team's strategies and collaborations. However that also means you can earn massive awards if you manage to put your finger on the winning horse before they get on the course. Someone can call this a pure lottery, to place any bet before stage 7 of this year tour but I will take the risk for my self and hope for good days on the road.

Alberto Contador is the magic name that comes from every related article as Tour de France 2009 most likely winner - and bookies are part of this choral voice offering just 1.95 (as bet365 does) for Contador to repeat his 2007 success in France. And I will take it today considering the fact that it can be 1.062 tomorrow after a time trial pretty suitable for Alberto's style. What makes me believe Contador have all the stars on his side (literally too) is mainly his performance I saw in Dauphiné Libéré - he was climbing monster hills as on excursion having fun with holding every attack and helping his Spanish mates! It was also true he was working on his bike standing not sitting but it was hard to find a slithly sign of tiredness on his face. There are even few more important factors to consider: he will be helped by a superbly strong team in the team time-trial in stage four. With Armstrong and Levi on his side Contador can break this tour early on. If...manage to stay a team leader. Yes, this is my only doubt here and will make me have a back up plan as I am sure Lance Armstrong will shoot few bullets on the jellow jersey also. That makes Astana' leadership a cloudy issue and can bring troubles for the team management. It is absolutely not acceptable to have so many Tour de France titles, to be a legend, to be 37 of age and to be calm and satisfied with carring the water bottles to the whole team! 4.00 is a worthy option for Lance - even you take it just to keep the good memories alive.

Ok, but who else can make it and bring me a solid reward for risking my money not on Contador? I will skip Sastre (he will be brilliant on the climbs but will loose too much in the trials), Menchov (to repeat his Giro success, no way), always second Cadel (too weak in the mountains and too defensive minded), Andy Schleck is another bookies favorite with 7.00 but..noo, too young gun to hold the preasure (as last year, his ambitions died in just one bad stage), but his brother Frank? 51.00 on him sounds like a music to my tipster ear and I will take it as a back up plan. It is true we saw a horrible fall in the Amstel Gold Race for Frank Schleck but he was back on the bike so quickly and even managed to win his home race, the Tour of Luxembourg, in June. Last year he was strong on the mountains and his brother can help him a lot if decides to support him during the whole race. Of course, the other scenario is also available as Andy can be very competitive for podium finish too - Pyrenees will decide everything inside that family!

Stage 1 - Individual Time Trial Pick - WON

What we have here are 15.5 km starting from Monaco with the same city hosting the finish. Considering the profile of the route we can easily decide it was made for Contador but I strongly recommend to consider also a win for the Olympic champion Cancellara . Fabian is on hist best in such races and is probably the best from all the riders here when it comes to individual time trials. He won Tour de Suisse time trial exit just few days ago. I suppose a stage win here for Fabian is aim number one in Team Saxo Bank strategy and I will give them credit to take it.

Bet365 offers 1.57 for Cancellara and massive 7.00 for Contador to win this Stage 1 of 2009 Tour de France.

Good luck and don't forget to come back to the blog for daily picks and fresh info on Tour de France 2009. Enjoy!

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Wimbledon 2009 Betting Picks Semifinals

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:58:00 +0000

Wimbledon 2009 - Men's
Semifinals

Bet Selection:
Roddick to win
WON

Top Prices:
4.00

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
I suppose we all agree Federer will reach the final as easy as playing ball in his backyard - he is just brilliant so far, playing top class tennis and I can not see anybody capable of winning against him here. 1.062 offering for his game with Haas is a joke that nobody should take.

The semifinal desert at this year Wimbledon is the other match where we find Murray facing Roddick. You won't be surprised at all when you look to my pick for this game - yes, I will keep my strategy from Day 1 and bet on Roddick to repeat the 2005 appearance at the final. I am convinced Murray can't manage the pressure coming from the whole nation with millions of eyes stared at him. I also saw nothing special came from Murray here - yes, he played good tennis so far, true, but he was on a blink of elimination against Wawrinka and is lucky enough to make it till the semi. I am just a bit worried by the statistics show Murray leads head-to-head encounters 6-2, including victory in their only match on grass, at Wimbledon 2006. But you should take the risk at that stage if you search for a worthy bet.

Odds arround 4.00 for Roddick are a must shot. I will take it hoping the American will manage to place maximum first serves and somehow turns ‘C'mon, Andy’ from the crowd on his side.

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Uefa Europa League Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:05:00 +0000

UEFA Europa League 2009
1 Q round:
Zimbru vs Okzhetpes

Bet Selection:
Double Chance
Draw or Okzhetpes
WON
Top Price:
2.15

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
While I need few hours more to analyze 2009 Wimbledon semi finalists and offer picks on both matches (and still counting every minute before this year Tour de France starts in Monaco this Saturday), I will join the Russian roulette which the 1st Qualifying Round in Uefa Europa League seems like. Under priced teams, not known squads, exotic clashes - all these sounds like "stay away from me" in every tipster' ear.

I know Zimbru with their clashes with Bulgarian Litex few years ago when they have even managed to outplay this opponent. The team is traditionally strong in defense and attends the European tournaments often enough to build a kind of experience. What bothers me here is the shaking form Zimbru showed in the closing stages at the end of last season in Moldova. As I have collected information on their current preperation period things do not look better. The team features mainly local players and I saw just one Serbian foreigner in the line up.
There are many question marks on Okzhetpes current form too - the team have problems scoring goals and is in 4 losses streak in all tournaments. What is a plus is that Okzhetpes coach has no important injury problems ahead of this one and is able to give a fight on this visit with his best players.

2.15 in bet365 for Okzhetpes not to lose the visit is a shot that makes sense - two class leveled teams which can easily delay the exit for the second leg.

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Wimbledon 2009 Betting Picks - Day 7

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 14:44:00 +0000

Wimbledon 2009 - Men's
Round 4 Matches

Bet Selection:
Roddick and Hewitt to win
WON

Top Prices:
1.875

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
On Monday we have one of the key rounds in Men's competition at 2009 Wimbledon which will give us answers - is Roddick capable of winning it? How Soderling will manage this shocking 0:10 record against Federer? Oh yes, and this Murray fashion to last forever, eh?

I will accumulate on this Day 7 two most likely wins and bring my stake at bet365 account a nice 1.875 reward. My advice is to follow me and stay aside of the big upset odds that day - just have the strawberries ready and enjoy bet365 live action from most of the courts(before be sure your account is funded).

Roddick performs very solid so far - if you remember he was my choice number two for making it till the end. On this Day 7 he has to face 20th seeded Czech Tomas Berdych who has not conceded a set in three rounds. I bet on Andy to keep this powerful services coming and find Berdych a bit not ready to last too long on 2009 Wimbledon with that rythm. Andy and Berdyck are 2:2 in 4 meetings since 2006 and this sign of quality is a bit frustrating and 1.50 for Roddick's win looks a bit underpriced. However Roddick loves this grass, he had very long runs here and is also more experienced than his opponent.

There is no need to discuss Hewitt at all - he looks like the good old Lleyton and his Aussie blood is boiling again - probably enough to secure him a duel against mighty Murray and the whole nation, actually. Hewitt is 2:0 against Radek who had some medical problems in his last 5 sets battle with Ferer.

I will combine on Monday Andy's and Hewitt's win - that makes 1.875 , "said" from bet365.

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USA vs Brazil Betting Pick

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 09:46:00 +0000

FIFA CC South Africa 2009
Final:
USA vs Brazil

Bet Selections:
Over 2.5 Goals
WON
Top Price:
1.95

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
Our blog favorites USA somehow reached the final rewarding our efforts with huge prices on every stage and will face Brazil for another attempt to shock the world. If we need to elect a betting pick on this final game fix odds are not working well enough - it will be too brave to look for anything than a win for Brazil here; on the other hand 1.40 can be suicidal if somehow USA manage to hold the result leveled after 90 minutes or even to produce a massive upset.

I will take a bit different approach to this game and will pay attention on Over Under market as 1.95 in bet365 for Over 2.5 Goals looks fair to me. It is true that this game will be completely different from the one in the groups stage (3:0 easy win for Brazil) and USA will try to play football this time. They will need to cover the dangerous empty spaces in their part of the field which cost them 3 unanswered goals last time. Are they going to focus on the defense? I do not think so and it is more likely to see the Americans flying in attack hungry for goals and trophy.
You can also bet with close eyes on Brazil to change their game from the last match against South Africa. They will put the pressure on USA defense from the first whistle and will try to score one or two early in the game to secure another title on their account.

I will bet on open game with lots of attacking options on both formations and take 1.95 price offered by bet365.

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Wimbledon 2009 Betting Picks - Day 4

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 05:03:00 +0000

Wimbledon 2009 - Men's
Round 2 Matches

Bet Selection:
Juan Martin Del Potro v Lleyton Hewitt
WON
Top Prices:
3.00 Hewitt

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
We smelled it, we just missed it - USA are on the final of Confederations Cup where they will face Brazil for sure (who needs any betting tip on South Africa vs Brazil today). That means we can grab some time and use it to follow closely day 4 at Wimbledon and try to turn things back on track after I have lost my secret favorite (and pride) with Day 1 and Blake's early exit.

Murray and Federer are both like heavy trains which will stop their run just one time - at the final, and give each other a superb fight. Considering their power and the fact I need to see one more game from A. Rodick, we shall improvise today finding value on a game from Wimbledon 2009 Day 4 matches.

1. Juan Martin Del Potro v Lleyton Hewitt
This will be the third match on Centre Court today and Hewitt finally looks hungry again. He found some form as he crushed Robby Ginepri in the first round and I predict the run will continue as I watched him at Queens where he produced few amazing points and gave Andy a fight. Hewitt, the 2002 Wimbledon Champion, will need to build upon the solid serving and to show some of his tricks on the net in order to force Del Potro exit. It won't be easy at all as the Argentinian is in top form, 5 in ranking and ready to repeat Rolland Garros semifinal at least. I just have the feeling Del Potro will find the grass a bit too fast today for his flavour.
I will take this 3.00 for Hewitt offered by bet365.

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Spain vs USA Betting Pick

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 20:25:00 +0000

FIFA CC South Africa 2009
Semifinal:
Spain vs USA

Bet Selections:
Draw 90'minutes

Top Price:
5.50

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
We all should agree there is no value at all to put your money down on Spain in this Fifa Confederations Cup semifinal. I will force my luck further and put my finger on USA to hold the 90 minutes draw at least - The Cinderella team unexpectedly find itself at this late stage after a huge win against Egypt and thanks to a humiliating loss on the current world champions account (Italy 0:3 Brazil).

I think we will see USA to wake up in the worst possible moment for Spain and to ride their enthusiasm hard while have nothing to lose...well, again. The team was merely out of the tournament but somehow rose from the dust and, as it was predicted on our blog, brought a marvelous reward back home for all believers (odds around 5.00 - my best hit in the last couple of months). If Clint Dempsey and captain Donovan both have a busy evening it will become hard for Spain to play the best of their game in the midfield. I suppose Bradly will keep goalkeeper Brad Guzan and forward Charlie Davies in the line up as they brought some luck in the game against Egypt. What is for sure - USA will give Spain a real fight and with a piece of luck they can keep the result comfortable long enough.

I should accept Spain are amazing - football can be close to art when you are watching the dancing Spanish midfield line. After making several changes for the final group game , Vicente del Bosque will field his strongest line-up once more. Iker Casillas returns in goal, Xabi Alonso and Xavi will be back in the starting eleven. David Villa and Fernando Torres will terrorize the American defense. What makes me believe then Spain will not decide this fixture in the regular time? The curcumstances mainly - USA are back and will be silly not to use the momentum. Spain are the favorites - tricky position to be before every game - they need to keep a record, they should fight with their own heads where Spain are title holders already.

I will take the shot for 90 minutes draw for a massive 5.50 price offered by bet365.
You can try draw-draw on HT-FT market with small amount of money too.

Good luck and stay tuned for my betting pick for the final exit of this tournament.

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2009 Wimbledon Betting Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 16:26:00 +0000

2009 Wimbledon Championship
Betting Preview

Features:
To Win Outright Market
Watch Wimbledon Live

Bow down, show your respect for a moment as the royal tournament is about to begin!
I won't lie if I say Wimbledon is one of my favorite sports events at all (next to the FIFA World Cups and, of course, Tour de France, which we will also follow very closely at the blog next month!). I also built my entire bankroll thanks to several huge hits on Wimbledon in the past and I keep a very warm feeling about this competition. That is why you will find fresh info and verdicts on 2009 Wimbledon here alongside with the regular soccer picks.
Now let me give you a clue to my overall betting strategy towards this year tournament:

Federer vs Murray

Errr...None of them. I know it sounds like pure madness as both of them seem in top form collecting the most prestigious titles lately - Queens for Murray, Roland Garros for Federer (his first, and last, probably, as the French ground does not like him at all). But the good old grass is always full with surprises and I expect one to come from the Americans - Blake (massive price of 101.00 at bet365) or Roddick (just 17.00).

Federer (priced at 1.72 for the title) is on the edge of world's best record in tennis and will chase it hard. The news about defending champion's exit due to an injury were the sugar in Federer's morning tea. That means no more 5 sets desperate battles with Nadal, as we had one last year. To reach the final Federer will need to think mainly about Novak Djokovic, Fernando Verdasco or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, experts said.
Murray (2.75) were absolute superb at Queens' grass and he is ready to break history again. His side of the draw seems clear to the final but does it?

I saw something in James Blake at Queens (where he reached the final against Murray) which makes me believe he can be the secret favorite of this Wimbledon. It was just another Blake - very calm, positive, extremely concentrated on the court and he was expressing a mood like "whatever happens here, I am just preparing my self for Wimledon, folks". I know this sounds a bit crazy and I admit that the price of 101.00 is affecting me somehow - but it is exactly this fever about betting, right? Ride your feeling, find your guy before it starts and rock the tournament with your bright idea later (or hide in a mouse hole when Blake loose in Day 1).

The same about Rodick - he is very fairly prices by the bookies for 2009 Wimbledon, his play looks solid enough to last long and it is just a question of constancy to make it to the final two.

Young Player to watch:

Grigor Dimitrov from Bulgaria - he is one of the most impressive young players lately, quickly climbing the rank table and gaining more experience. He was just about to leave a serious track in Queens but missed it. Now I have the feeling he can last a bit long on Wimbledon and produce an upset for a highly ranked player, for sure. Grigor won last year Wimbledon Junior Championship.
He is starting on June 23 against Igor Kunitsyn and 1.72 for a win here looks fair to me.

Watch 2009 Wimbledon Live Online
And finally the good news - Wimbledon gets underway at the All England Club tomorrow and bet365 will be streaming over 200 matches live. And yes, I will use bet365 as my main bookmaker for the tournament!
You can bet on over 24 In-Play markets on every live match including Next Point, Next Game, Next Set and Match Winner.
Please note that you must have a funded account in order to view Wimbledon streams.

Good luck and don't forget to come back to the blog for more daily picks and fresh info on Wimbledon. Enjoy the tournament.

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Italy v Brazil / Egypt v USA Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 09:51:00 +0000

FIFA CC South Africa 2009

June 21
Italy vs Brazil
Egypt vs USA

Betting Verdict
OK, we wanted it, we have it now! The Confederations Cup serves today the desert in the group stage and adds something unexpected to the cherry of the cake - Italy to fight for survival against the mighty Brazil with Egypt still with great chances to progress. As these two will be a nice show for the fans tipsters might find them tricky when it comes to deal with the bookies.
I have got my piece of the cake yesterday when 2.00 on HT of Spain's game brought me a nice reward home (thanks bet365) - so I will shoot for a big prize today with small amount of money and great expectations.

Bookmaker of choice:

1. Italy vs Brazil - LOST
If you look for a maximum safety bet, stay aside of this. We need to calculate on few factors in order to improve on our betting strategy for the game. Experimental side for Brazil again? I don't think so - it might work against demotivated USA but the world champion is a different story. We can expect to see the best possible Brazil squad considering the fact that there is still a scenario in which Dunga's team can stay out of the next stage in case of defeat here. Did Italy learn their lesson after the shocking loss from Egypt? You can bet on that. We will see one totally different side today, very close to perfection - solid defense and smart attacking. Italy needs merely the point here but Azzuri know the win is better in order to have the fortune in your own hands.
I do not expect an open game here but it won't be an ugly defensive battle two. We will see desperate fight for the midfield as both teams have their geious players in this spot - Kaka wil have a special day facing Pirlo and company. It will be decided by a moment of brilliance produced by one of the bunch of stars on the field or will end in a draw.

I will bet on FT draw on Ladbrokes and take generous 3.25 reward hoping both teams to find they are too quality leveled at this stage and at this tournament.

2. Egypt vs USA - WON
Another big game to watch tonight as both teams have something to play for - Egypt for their chance for glory, USA for their pride. Call it madness but I will put USA chances to win in serious consideration. It is possible Egypt not to sustain the pressure coming from the must win and the enormous expectations from the fans and the whole world after 1:0 history record against the current world champion. They have few key injured players, Zidan is another one who will miss the show tonight. I feel Egypt will miss their attacking options tonight and will be shocked to see one organized again USA, ready to produce a battle for the pride and exit the tournament with honor.
USA have few decent players as Donovan and Dempsey and if defense manage to stay stable for even one half we can see a serious upset for the Pharaons (and the bookies).

I will take this shot at huge 5.00 award in Ladbrokes and wait to be crown as the luckiest man of the earth tonight if manage to win it.

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South Africa v Spain Betting Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 08:52:00 +0000

FIFA CC South Africa 2009
Betting Pick 1:
South Africa vs Spain
20:30 CET

Bet Selections:
Draw at HT - WON

Top Prices:
2.00

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
It is a tricky game to bet on as Spain are already trough and South Africa can progress even in a case of defeat here - and few more conditions to meet depend on the other game in the group today - Iraq vs New Zealand. It is true Spain are chasing a solid record for games won in a row but sometimes the statistics is nothing when it comes to such a tournament (you saw what happened on Egypt - Italy game).
As one point will work for both teams perfectly the full time draw looks tempting but I will skip it anyway due to the real quality gap between this two and the absolute no idea on the Spain line up and mood. There is no doubt - if Spain really want the win they will take it easily, despite they use Team B for the game.

I have the feeling the home side will feature a defensive line up and will try not to loose the game. If they have 0:0 45 minutes to build upon the strategy might probably work out. The defense looks solid with a giant center-back in its heart who will sweep all the high balls in the penalty area. However Spain generally practice "keep it low - move it fast" ball strategy in opponent's half and this alongside with the unique technique of the Spanish players will be the main challenge for South Africans to overcome. Pienaar's mood will be crucial again in terms of creativity in the midfield.

I will try the half time draw as predicting 45 minutes of testing each other or, if you believe in conspiracy, a half time of friendship and mutual understanding - empty stadiums for the next stage will terrify them all (and Mr. Blatter mainly).

Take the HT draw for a fair 2.00 price offered by bet365.

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1.40 Gift On Serbia U21 Game

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 08:50:00 +0000

UEFA European U21
Betting Pick 1:
Belarus vs Serbia
18:15 CET

Bet Selections:
Serbia to win

Top Prices:
1.40

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
You did not read the headline wrong, that's right, any value above 1.20 on this game is a pure gift for every tipster who watched carefully first games of this U21 Euro. Serbia were so powerful in the second half against Italy - a shot in the cross bar saved young Italians and shared the points after scoreless 0:0 draw. I saw a Serbian squad capable of lasting long on this tournament featuring genius young players like Sulejmani. And despite the fact they have few injury concerns Serbia can build upon this 1 point and dream for the next stage.

I was expecting more from Belarus as they have eliminated Turkey in the play-off and showed solid play, specially in defense, during the qualifications. They scored one for the opening against Sweden but after that were just crushed and blown 5:1 down. There will be changes for sure but I can't see from where exactly the rebuild of confidence may come.

My advice is to take quickly 1.40 price offered by bet365 this morning as Serbia have one tricky game with Sweden to come last and want to be sure they have the ace in the pocket.

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noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 08:43:00 +0000

FIFA CC South Africa 2009

Betting Pick 1:
Egypt vs Italy
19:30 BST

Bet Selection:
Draw at HT

Top Prices:
2.25

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
Huge success yesterday as I nearly doubled up my bankroll due to the same competition picks and I will take my well deserved rest today placing one for fun. I have the good feeling it will be a very close first half between shaking Italy (despite the 3:1 come from behind against USA) and inspired Egypt (after the thrilling 3:4 result against Brazil). Egypt have everything to lose tonight and the Africans showed on their opening they might last a bit more on this tournament.
The first one was for the world to applause, now it is time to collect merely a point and concentrate on the last and crucial game against USA. The team is full with confidence and showed massive attacking potential and great danger coming from Dortmund striker Mohamed Zidan and Middlesbrough's Mohamed Shawky. I expect them to fight hard, specially in the opening minutes in order to take control on the midfield and the whole game and try to involve the world champion in a tricky game, well, again.

On the other hand, Italy were happy to recover after shocking 10-men lead by USA in the first half and collect all the points on the start. A point here will be just fine and I have seen the Italians doing this for years - not pushing hard in the groups and trying to progress further with minimum efforts.
So I will take this generous 2.25 offered by bet365 this morning on the HT draw and back up with a possible Under 2.5 goals exit.
Good luck!

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Fifa Confederations Cup - Matchday 3

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 13:18:00 +0000

FIFA CC South Africa 2009
Matchday 3 - Betting Preview

June 17
Spain vs Iraq
South Africa vs New Zealand

Betting Verdict
As first matches in both groups are well behind I am ready to place first bets on this tricky tournament. It was important to see the motivation and the line ups of the favorites, and also the mentality of play, in order to organize my betting strategy in the right way and find the profitable tracks I always looking for.

1. Spain vs Iraq - WON
What is clear so far is that Spain are huge, huge favorites to collect the title as the team is determined and hungry for goals and wins.
Torres and Villa just can crush every defense.
Iraq is one well organized team, specially in defense, but Spain will be too big bite for them, even to keep the draw warm. It is hard to find any value in Spain's win here - 1.05 offered by bet365 for the current European champion is nothing, 1.22 on Spain-Spain (HT-FT market) is also rubbish, so I will take a smart one placing my bet on Under 3.5, 4 Goal Line market and find a huge reward of 1.90 (as for today). Iraq surely learned their lesson watching New Zealand struggling and will close the game early trying to avoid a bunch of goals in the first half.

2. South Africa vs New Zealand - WON
This is a crucial game for both as 3 points here means chance to follow Spain in the next stage. South Africa did not impress anyone on the opening and even the home support could not bring them all the points. On the other hand New Zealand looked totally down against Spain and will be hard to stand up again after such a schocking result. I fancy the home side here as it is probably their best chance to leave a track in this tournament. South Africa squad features better quality in terms of experienced players and I will use 1.30 offer by bet365 today to complete my accumulator bet for tomorrow.

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Great Value Bet on Serbia to Draw Italy

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 08:35:00 +0000

UEFA European U21
Betting Pick 1:
Italy vs Serbia
20:45 CET
WON
Bet Selections:
Draw / 1:1 Correct Score

Top Prices:
3.25 / 6.25

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
Two of the major favorites will open their U21 Euro campaign tonight as Italy is facing Serbia in Helsinborg. The young Italians, one of the most successful teams at that level, are desperate to rebuild some pride against Serbia after shocking 0:1 defeat in their last clash two years ago.

The fact is that Italy are considered the better side featuring a couple of shining stars from Serie A in the current squad and probably they will be more motivated, specially tonight, when the revenge mind will play a certain role. The Italians are powerful upfront, scoring plenty of goals in the qualifications and Balotelli and Acquafresca are great danger for every defence by default.

What makes me believe Serbia have the potential to level the quality is the way the team has played so far in the qualification campaign - very solid performance with unstopable attack too and creativity in the midfield. Add to that players coming from

My advice is to follow the logic that a point here will be enough for both favorites to open the campaign and delay the real battle for later stages. 3.25 offered by bet365 this morning is really tempting and I will take the value immediately. As a bet for fun I will try 1:1 as it is very likely to see goals coming from both attacking formations.

A brief browse over my favourite bookies online in the morning showed Ladbrokes is also offering a good price for the draw at rates such as 23/10.

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A Dollar Dream For Vegas

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:03:00 +0000

I was playing in my regular 0.50/1 USD ring game on bet365 poker network when my mind stopped at a certain point. "Dreams are for free, right", everybody knows that but why don't you prove it. I know everyone nowadays is running all kind of poker experiments to turn 1 dollar in 10k, for example, proving everything from discipline to genius poker skills, etc. I am certainly not Chris Ferguson or Daniel Negreanu who ran or are running similar projects on the net but I do have my own dreams as a normal man and today decided to call them somehow and to try to make them true. I want to be more than a poker project (poker is just a tool) and try to preserve the same imagination for how far your dreams may come.

"A Dollar Dream For Vegas" is the name of my poker project which goal is to start from zero and claim a mountain in a desperate short terms, till this summer, and participate in this year WSOP Main event. I will do it my way and won't stick to any always valid rules. Yes, i will keep the basics of bankroll management and use all of my poker skills but also will try to be as creative as possible and further extend the imagination of this game. I will start from freerolls, earn the first cash and then move to STGs and cash games that suits my budget. I will post my progress and strategies here, discuss my game and memorable moments, and really hope to receive from you some help, tips, and taps on my shoulder.
My particular aim in terms of numbers is to turn o to 15k dollars for Main event fee and expenses on travel and accommodation.
What really differs my project from hundreds of similar on the web? I want to prove that a totally random man, randomly located - currently at Sofia, Bulgaria,not a professional poker player, actually loosing more than winning so far on the poker scene, can dream and chase hard and, what is more important, is going to improve a lot and work hard enough to deserve his dreams come true.
I know, now it can sounds a bit funny, a bit not serious, but the time will prove it.

My first steps
Ok, I am ready to go and have my first two freerolls tonight - one 500 USD in RedKings poker room and one 100 USD in Mansion. I will try to earn some starting cash wherever I can - my next games will be on PokerStars, FullTilt, bet365 and bet-at-home (part of Boss Media network) poker rooms.

Day 1, 3 March, START

P.S> Both freerolls I mentioned above took me years back, all of the players are 100 % mad and actually use this chance for free cash as a tv lotto or something. Sad for the game. It will be hard to go through it and cash for the first time. I just do not want to imagine what is waiting for me on 0.02/0.05 limits after that:>

Swindon v Cheltenham

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 09:07:00 +0000

England, League One
Betting Pick 1:
Swindon v Cheltenham
19:45 GMT

Bet Selection:
Swindon to win

Top Price: 1.80

Bookmaker of choice:

Betting Verdict
I need to rebuild some pride on my betting blog from yesterday and that is the reason I dropped all the elite games in today's coupon and took another shot on League One in England.
I can see that one as an early 6-pointer and a must win game for the home side if they want to take a deep breath and be prepared to survive. I will probably use the game as a banker as 1.66 from bet365 suits my betting strategy today on their site and adds some value to the accumulator.

With Swindon lingering on the edge of the drop-zone, a home win is a must and will complete two goals at once - it will bring enough confidence for Swindon ahead of MK Dons clash and will desperate Cheltenham in their, as it seems, last attempts to avoid the relegation. The home manager D.Wilson goes into the game without Craig Easton (calf), Jon-Paul McGovern (ankle), Yinka Casal (ankle) and Patrick Kanyuka (groin). However these are not affecting the starting eleven two much and it is likely to see an unchanged squad from the last round (defeat, Tranmere).
Swindon are scoreless in the last couple of games and will force the attack looking for improvement against the league bottom side.

A brief browse over my favourite bookies online in the morning showed expekt.com are just ahead from bet365 with 1.70 for the home win and Ladbrokes with the first place with their 1.80. I was also tempted to place a small amount on 3:1 end score in bet-at-home and bring home a hude 10.00 reward.

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Before the game starts & after the final whistle:
I found playing poker as an great alternative on sports betting and a way to increase my bankroll seriously. And it is more fun, that is for sure. You can find me on 1/2 NL Holdem at:

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Oldham vs Leeds United

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 13:11:00 +0000

England, League One
Betting Pick 1:
Oldham - Leeds
Boundary Park
19:45 GMT

Bookmaker: bet365
Bet: Oldham to win, LOST
Price: 2.50

Verdict
Another thrilling encounter will take place at Oldham tonight when both teams will hope to keep their hopes for promotion warm enough. The home side is looking in shape again after a shaky few games and will force all their skills to collect the 3 points here against a top competitor.
No fresh injury concerns for the home boss which makes me believe Oldham will produce some of their best as they did against play-off rivals Millwall in the last round.
Oldham have a decent record against Leeds at home through the years and won twice last year on a road 3-1 and 2-0.
The team news coming from Leeds are not that optimistic as we find midfielder Jonny Howson suspended after being sent off in Saturday's win over Scunthorpe. Andy Robinson and Neil Kilkenny could also miss out along with Frazer Richardson and Andrew Hughes, BBC reported. Leeds are scoreless on their visits on the last couple of games and I can not see from where exactly the goals will come form tonight at Boundary Park.

Cosidering all the facts a home win seems a good exit from this game offering fantastic value for the punters. I will stick to my most favourite bookie and take the 2.50 at bet365.

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Wales v England

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 13:53:00 +0000

6Nations Rugby Pick:
Wales v England
19:30 GMT
Saturday, 14 February
Kick-off: 1730 GMT
Venue: Millennium Stadium

Bookmaker: bet365
Bet: England +11 , WON
Price: 2.00

Verdict
I am a bit amazed by the bookies offering tasty 2.00 price for England with 11 points advantage and will quickly take it today. I can not remember England loosing with more than 10 points difference by Wales in the last 6-7 games and think it is really to much to favor the home side like this.
It is also true Wales are flying high, went to Scotland and took it all, and now are hungry for records but I know England can play good rugby and the first game against Italy is not a measure at all. 11 points difference or more should be a humiliation in Cardiff for England and they have to dig deep in order to defend the crown pride. Sometimes the motivation and teh right approach of the game can be everything, specially between these two.
England have restored fit-again Mike Tindall at outside centre and I can not emphasize any other major team news in the quad.
Wales hope wing Shane Williams and number eight Andy Powell should be fit for this clash at Millennium.

Take me right - I did not say England will take all the glory in Cardiff but for Wales it will be too much of a task to smash the visitors with more than 11 points. Just look back at the history and 2.00 offered by bet365 will looks like a St Valentine day present to you.

Before the game starts: I often find it too boring to wait for the game starts and my gambling blood is boiling.
What do I do?

I play some poker at bet365 or FullTilt.
My last finding: cheap and great fun at bingo and games rooms in bet365.
Try the virtual greyhounds, my favorite.

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Switzerland vs Bulgaria

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 07:30:00 +0000

International Matches
Betting Pick 1:
Switzerland vs Bulgaria
19:30 GMT

Bookmaker: bet365
Bet: Bulgaria, LOST
Price: 3.75

Verdict
International friendlies are like a day off for the punter as all you need to do is to gamble a bit and try to increase your bankroll by catching a "shocking" result in your pocket. Following the strategy I will focus my attention on 3.75 huge reward if my prediction on Bulgaria to explode under the new coach become the right choice.
Stanimir Stoilov has a nice history as a head coach being the first leader of a Bulgarian football team - Levski Sofia - which made it to the Champions League group stage. The coach has a perfect reputation in the country and all the hopes are related now to his ability to build solid teams on a long terms bases. Super Berbatov is available and will lead the attack. We have a duo in form up front with Rangelov and Angelov who both left a serious track in the last Bundesliga round.
Switzerland will miss few important players and despite the fact it is a friendly and we will have many changes in the squads I expect to see the Bulgarians trying to impress the new coach and and rebuild some pride.

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6Nations: Ireland v France

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 09:22:00 +0000

Rugby Pick 1:
Ireland - France
Kick-off: 1700 GMT
Venue: Croke Park
Six Nations

Bet: France, -3
Best price: 2.00 by bet365

Verdict
The waiting is over for those of you who knows at least one sport that can be recently dominated by Wales. The campaign in Six Nations Rugby Cup will be kicked off today when England is welcoming Italy in what should be a sure home win. However -15 points spread for the home side seems a bit too much for me for 2.00 price reward. I prefer to focus my attention on Ireland v France clash where the visitors are expected to collect another win against the poor home side.
The Irish won only two matches in 2008 and are suffering seven straight defeats from France. All the hopes in Dublin should be related with the new coach Declan Kidney but sometimes it can be too much of a pressure, specially in front of the fans.
I can not see any sign in team news that may lead me to a conclusion for the exit of this one. It seems both teams are in form but France are still heavy favorite to start their 6Nations Cup 2009 campaign in style and target better than 3rd place this season.

How To Find The Best Soccer Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Aiven) — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 07:09:00 +0000

This is a guest post by Ed from edspicks.com

All the punters in the World have tried numerous systems that were supposed to help them earn some money with more or less success. I will try to give you some advice on finding the best possible football betting picks in a wide range of soccer games.

First of all, you shouldn’t bet on the hot favourites as the odds are too small and you are risking a lot of money for a small profit. You should be better off trying to find a team that are not clear favourites but are in good form and have enough quality to win the game in question. You should look for the team that have great home record and back them in home games against the teams of similar quality. The odds are likely to be high, while the home advantage could be just what your team need to win the game. Paying attention to the tradition is also very important as it can show how the teams usually fare against each other.

Motivation is also a very important factor when looking for the team to back and Cup games could be a real treat for punters. If a team are involved in a relegation struggle or title race, their coach is likely to field a second string line-up in order to rest his starters, and that could be your chance to back their opponents, of course in case that they have the motivation to win the match in question. This brings us to another important guideline on placing the bet and that is information.

You shouldn’t place the bet before you make sure to know all the required information regarding the match. Coaches’ interviews can give you an idea about their plans for the game, whether they will field the strongest team or not, while knowing the situation with injured and suspended players can also be of great help. There is no point of backing the team that miss several key players as team’s performance is unlikely to be at the same level as usual. Betting against a team that has just changed a coach is never a good thing to do, as the players are eager to impress the new coach and usually play much better than expected.

The state of the pitch can also be very important as highly-technical teams will struggle to create any chances at a pitch that is in poor condition, while more physical sides will profit from the same situation.

Maybe the golden rule of finding valuable sports picks is not to bet on a team just because you support it. This is something that has happened to every single punter at some stage and it can easily impair your judgment. Even if your favourite team are playing bad, you are likely to believe that they will improve and could be tempted to bet on them even though there are not a lot of factors justifying your decision.