After the Heat’s wild comeback victory over the Spurs in Game 6, ESPN’s Bill Simmons questioned whether San Antonio just suffered the worst collapse in a possible championship-clinching game in NBA history.

“I’d have to go back through the years and look,” Simmons said on the postgame broadcast (paraphrasing), “but I don’t know if an NBA team has ever been that close to winning a championship. Up four with the ball and less than 30 seconds left, you win that game 99 times out of 100.”

But the Spurs didn’t win it, of course, as missed free throws by both Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard in the final seconds led to Ray Allen’s epic game-tying 3-pointer.

What were the odds of San Antonio blowing that kind of lead so late? Were they truly 100-to-1 as Simmons estimated?

Well, after Ginobili hit 1 of 2 from the line with 28 seconds left, 5Dimes pegged the Heat as 50-to-1 underdogs to complete the comeback.

But what about before Ginobili’s free throws?

An advanced stats blogger has been providing win probability graphs for many of the 2013 NBA Playoff games, and he gave Tuesday night’s Game 6 a 66 “comeback factor,” meaning, as he put it…

The comeback factor of 66 in this game means that, at the Heat’s nadir (down by 4, Spurs ball, 0:28 on the clock), their odds of winning the game were 66 to 1.

Allen’s 3-pointer shifted the Heat’s odds of winning the game from 6.1% to 45.9%.

For comparison’s sake, here are the “comeback factors” for the rest of the NBA Finals games:

Game 5: 1.2
Game 4: 2.6
Game 3: 0.8
Game 2: 0.7
Game 1: 6.0

So, um, yeah, Miami’s comeback in Game 6 was 11 times as unlikely as the next biggest comeback in the series to that point.

The post NBA Finals Game 6 Rewind: Advanced stats say odds of a Heat comeback were 66-to-1 in final seconds appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

When trying to put together power ratings for college football teams, you’ve got to start somewhere. The most basic starting point is to pool together the rankings from the four major preview magazines—Phil Steele, Athlon Sports, Lindy’s and The Sporting News—and then come up with a consensus ranking.

This year, Alabama is the unanimous No. 1 team after being awarded the top spot by every publication. Ohio State (ranked 2nd three times), Oregon, Stanford and Georgia round out the top 5.

To arrive at the top 25, we’ve awarded one point to each team based on their rank in the various magazines. A team receives 1 point if it’s ranked No. 1, 10 points if it’s ranked No. 10, 15 points if it’s ranked No. 15, and so on.

Six SEC teams are ranked in the consensus top 25, and four of them—Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Texas A&M—are listed in the top 10. The Big 12 has five ranked teams, and the Big Ten and Pac 12 each have four.

If you’re super ambitious and want to rank teams from 1-to-125, knock yourself out. (But please, be sure to email them to us!)

* * *

College football magazine consensus rankings

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Stanford
5. Georgia
6. South Carolina
7. Texas A&M
8. Notre Dame
9. Florida State
10. Clemson
11. Oklahoma State
12. LSU
13. Florida State
14. Louisville
15. Texas
16. Michigan
17. Oklahoma
18. Boise State
19. USC
20. TCU
21. Baylor
22. Nebraska
23. Ole Miss
24. Wisconsin
25. UCLA

Receiving votes: Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Oregon State, Miami, Michigan State, Fresno State, Northwestern.

The post College football magazine consensus rankings: Led by Alabama, SEC is well represented in top 25 appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

If you haven’t heard that the Miami Heat are 12-0 against the spread since January following a loss, then you’re obviously not following one of the 10,000 people on Twitter who have been tweeting non-stop about it for all of June.

Tonight, in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, the Heat are coming off a loss. They’re also 7-point favorites against the San Antonio Spurs despite trailing 3-2 and being backed into the proverbial corner.

On his ESPN Radio show Tuesday morning, Colin Cowherd offered up his take on the Game 6 point spread.

“Here’s what’s amazing,” Cowherd said. “This happens about twice a year. Maybe once a year. There’s a game that everybody decides who’s gonna win. Scott Van Pelt and I talked about this. In the NFL, there’s like that one game every weekend where everybody knows the winner? Bet the other team.

“Tonight, does anybody like San Antonio? Like, anybody? Outside of their area code, nobody likes San Antonio. That would worry me if I’m a Miami Heat fan.”

Although the stats don’t really agree with Cowherd’s assessment (only 52% of all bets are on Miami -7), it certainly does feel like everyone is assuming that Game 7 is a foregone conclusion. Because, ya know, in case you hadn’t realized, THE HEAT ARE UNDEFEATED AGAINST THE SPREAD OFF A STRAIGHT-UP LOSS.

“I know Miami’s blowing out everybody off games like this, but I don’t sense it,” Cowherd continued. “I’ll go the other way. I think it’s very close.

“I know what everybody’s saying: ‘Colin, this is what Miami does.’ But last time Miami was down 2-1, it was different. They wore camouflage. Remember that? We had buried Miami. It was the opposite. Tonight, we’re burying San Antonio.”

And that point is perhaps the best he made. At least part of the reason Miami has been so good coming off a loss is because lots of people have started to doubt them. That not only gives them a little “nobody believes in us” factor, but it also can result in a smidgen of value on the spread.

But tonight? It’s the exact opposite. The “Heat undefeated ATS off a loss” stat has become so widespread—even in non-gambling circles—that no one is doubting them despite looking pretty bad in their most recent effort. Instead, it’s the Spurs who have no believers and could surprise some people by hanging close.

“When you back Miami into a corner and give them no hope, that’s when they’re great,” Cowherd said. “Tonight you think to yourself, ‘Well, Colin, they’re backed into a corner.’ The difference is everybody is picking the Heat tonight. Literally everybody is picking the Miami Heat tonight.”

As for our pick, we’ll go with San Antonio. If only because it’ll mercifully end all those annoying tweets.

The post Colin Cowherd on Heat-Spurs Game 6: The ‘game where everybody has decided who’s gonna win’ appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

We previously posted college football odds for a handful of BCS conferences. But today, 5Dimes released odds (conference and divisional) for all 10 leagues, everything from the American Athletic to the Mountain West.

Conferences that figure to be super competitive: ACC (Clemson and Florida State are +230 co-favorites); Big 12 (four teams are lined similarly); and Sun Belt (the hyphenated Louisiana schools are both listed at +160).

Conferences that should be reasonably competitive: Conference USA (three teams are +375 or better); Mid-American (can anybody differentiate these teams?); Pac-12 (Oregon is favored, but has question marks); and SEC (several teams are capable of knocking off Alabama).

Conferences likely to be runaways: AAC (defending champ Louisville must hold off Cincinnati and Rutgers); Big Ten (Ohio State should run the table for a second straight year); and Mountain West (It’s Boise State … and everybody else).

All odds are posted below, organized by conference. The most interesting league seems to be the Big 12, where 5Dimes made Oklahoma State (+270) the favorite ahead of both Texas and TCU, meaning they’ve got the Sooners running fourth.

Defending champion Kansas State has the sixth-best odds at 17-1.

* * *

All odds courtesy of 5Dimes.

ACC
Clemson +230
Florida State +230
Miami +550
North Carolina +590
Georgia Tech +850
Virginia Tech +975
Pittsburgh +2500
Maryland +5000
Virginia +5500
NC State +7000
Boston College +7000
Syracuse +7000
Duke +12000
Wake Forest +12500

ACC Atlantic
Clemson +100
Florida State +100
Maryland +2200
NC State +3000
Boston College +3000
Syracuse +3000
Wake Forest +5000

ACC Coastal 
Miami +230
North Carolina +250
Georgia Tech +370
Virginia Tech +405
Pittsburgh +1000
Virginia +2000
Duke +4000

* * *

American Athletic
Louisville -140
Cincinnati +490
Rutgers +490
Central Florida +1000
Connecticut +2000
South Florida +2300
SMU +2500
Houston +2500
Memphis +5500
Temple +5500

* * *

Big Ten
Ohio State -105
Michigan +480
Nebraska +625
Northwestern +710
Michigan State +710
Wisconsin +975
Iowa +4000
Minnesota +4000
Indiana +6500
Purdue +8000
Illinois +8000

Big Ten Leaders
Ohio State -465
Wisconsin +480
Indiana +2500
Purdue +3000
Illinois +3000

Big Ten Legends
Michigan +230
Nebraska +285
Northwestern +325
Michigan State +325
Iowa +1500
Minnesota +1500

* * *

Big 12
Oklahoma State +270
Texas +300
TCU +350
Oklahoma +375
Baylor +1200
Kansas State +1750
Texas Tech +2000
West Virginia +2500
Iowa State +3500
Kansas +7500

* * *

Conference USA
Tulsa +270
East Carolina +375
Marshall +375
Rice +650
Louisiana Tech +850
Middle Tennessee +875
UTEP +950
UAB +1700
Southern Miss +1700
Florida Atlantic +2800
Tulane +3200
North Texas +3200
Florida International +3600
UTSA +5500

C-USA East
East Carolina +185
Marshall +185
Middle Tennessee +410
UAB +800
Southern Miss +800
Florida Atlantic +1300
Florida International +1600

C-USA West
Tulsa +135
Rice +300
Louisiana Tech +400
UTEP +460
Tulane +1500
North Texas +1500
UTSA +2500

* * *

Mid-American
Northern Illinois +200
Bowling Green +460
Ohio +500
Ball State +600
Toledo +650
Kent State +850
Buffalo +1050
Western Michigan +1800
Miami-Ohio +1800
Central Michigan +2000
Massachusetts +2300
Akron +2800
Eastern Michigan +7000

MAC East
Bowling Green +225
Ohio +250
Kent State +425
Buffalo +470
Miami-Ohio +800
Massachusetts +1000
Akron +1200

MAC West
Northern Illinois +100
Ball State +320
Toledo +350
Western Michigan +800
Central Michigan +900
Eastern Michigan +3000

* * *

Mountain West
Boise State +110
Fresno State +255
San Jose State +860
San Diego State +975
Utah State +1000
Nevada +1700
Air Force +2300
Wyoming +4500
Colorado State +6500
UNLV +8500
New Mexico +9000
Hawaii +12500

MWC West 
Fresno State -105
San Jose State +330
San Diego State +370
Nevada +625
UNLV +2800
Hawaii +4000

MWC Mountain
Boise State -325
Utah State +550
Air Force +1000
Wyoming +1850
Colorado State +2400
New Mexico +3200

* * *

Pac-12
Oregon +235
USC +485
Arizona State +575
Arizona +675
Stanford +725
UCLA +825
Oregon State +825
Washington +825
Utah +2100
California +3700
Washington State +5100
Colorado +11000

Pac-12 North
Oregon +120
Stanford +385
Oregon State +410
Washington +410
California +1500
Washington State +2000

Pac-12 South
USC +240
Arizona State +270
Arizona +320
UCLA +375
Utah +800
Colorado +4000

* * *

SEC
Alabama +135
South Carolina +425
Georgia +475
Texas A&M +1050
Florida +1200
LSU +1250
Mississippi +1400
Vanderbilt +1800
Missouri +3000
Tennessee +5500
Kentucky +5500
Mississippi State +9000
Auburn +9000
Arkansas +9000

SEC East
South Carolina +175
Georgia +195
Florida +495
Vanderbilt +675
Missouri +1000
Tennessee +1800
Kentucky +1800

SEC West
Alabama -180
Texas A&M +545
LSU +575
Mississippi +650
Mississippi State +3500
Auburn +3500
Arkansas +3500

* * *

Sun Belt
Louisiana-Lafayette +160
Louisiana-Monroe +160
Western Kentucky +275
Arkansas State +500
Troy +800
Texas State +3000
South Alabama +4000
Georgia State +5000

The post 5Dimes releases college football conference and divisional odds for every league (even the Sun Belt!) appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

When the Golden Nugget released point spreads for almost 250 college football games in the 2013 season, they left out only 12 total Big 12 Conference matchups.

That’s where we come in. Continuing today, we’re going conference by conference to give a preview of sorts based on the Golden Nugget’s lines. Using their point spreads to project all remaining conference games that they chose not to line, we’ll calculate win odds and then projected standings for the 2013 season.

[Related: How do you convert point spreads into a team’s percentage chance of winning a game?]

Without further adieu, here’s an early look at the Big 12.

BIG 12 PROJECTED STANDINGS FOR 2013

Texas 7-2
Oklahoma 7-2
Oklahoma State 6-3
Kansas State 5-4
TCU 5-4
Baylor 5-4
Texas Tech 4-5
West Virginia 3-6
Iowa State 2-7
Kansas 1-8

Notables: Kansas State was considered a one-year wonder after putting together a surprise 2011 season, but followed it up by winning the Big 12 title last year. Will the Wildcats repeat as champs? Maybe not, but early road wins against Oklahoma State and Texas could put them in the driver’s seat … Speaking of the Longhorns, they’re favored in all of their Golden Nugget games. They opened as a pick ‘em against OU, but are now 1.5-point favorites  … Iowa State and Kansas are expected to occupy the league basement. The Cyclones are favored just once in Golden Nugget lines—against KU—and we project the Jayhawks to be listed as double-digit underdogs in every Big 12 game.

* * *

WIN ODDS

Texas 6.70
Oklahoma 6.64
Oklahoma State 6.59
Kansas State 5.31
TCU 5.19
Baylor 4.63
Texas Tech 3.65
West Virginia 3.36
Iowa State 2.24
Kansas 0.69

* * *

WEEK 1
No conference games.

WEEK 2
West Virginia at Oklahoma -16

WEEK 3
TCU -4 at Texas Tech

WEEK 4
Kansas State at Texas -9

WEEK 5
Oklahoma State -11 at West Virginia

WEEK 6
Texas -12 at Iowa State
Kansas State at Oklahoma State -9
TCU at Oklahoma -9
West Virginia at Baylor -7
Texas Tech -11 at Kansas*

WEEK 7
Oklahoma vs. Texas PK
Baylor at Kansas State -5
Kansas at TCU -24.5*
Iowa State at Texas Tech -7.5*

WEEK 8
Iowa State at Baylor -13*
TCU at Oklahoma State -10
Texas Tech at West Virginia -3*
Oklahoma -24 at Kansas*

WEEK 9
Texas -3 at TCU
Baylor -16 at Kansas*
West Virginia at Kansas State -9
Texas Tech at Oklahoma -14
Oklahoma State -14 at Iowa State

WEEK 10
West Virginia at TCU -10
Iowa State at Kansas State -13.5
Kansas at Texas -31.5
Oklahoma State -9 at Texas Tech*

WEEK 11
Oklahoma -6 at Baylor
TCU -9.5 at Iowa State
Kansas at Oklahoma State -29
Texas -12 at West Virginia
Kansas State -3 at Texas Tech*

WEEK 12
Iowa State at Oklahoma -20
Oklahoma State at Texas -6.5
West Virginia -10.5 at Kansas*
TCU at Kansas State -4.5
Texas Tech vs. Baylor -4.5*

WEEK 13
Kansas at Iowa State -13*
Baylor at Oklahoma State -11
Oklahoma -4 at Kansas State

WEEK 14
Texas Tech at Texas -16
Iowa State at West Virginia -7.5
Kansas State -21.5 at Kansas
Baylor at TCU -5

WEEK 15
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State -3
Texas -8 at Baylor

*Projected. (Not an official Golden Nugget line.)

The post Big 12 Projected Standings 2013: K-State has chance to repeat as champions in wide-open league appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

The first wave of bettors have made their way through the Golden Nugget sportsbook in Las Vegas, and of the 248 college football lines released last Friday, only 34 of them have moved more than a point.

DonBest.com posted updated point spreads on Monday, and we’ve highlighted the biggest moves below (scroll to bottom).

The most interesting team that appears multiple times is Arkansas, given how terrible the Razorbacks were last year. But many bettors seem to believe that a coaching upgrade alone (from John L. Smith to Bret Bielema) is enough to help the team improve upon a disastrous 4-8 campaign in 2012.

Arkansas went from a pick ‘em to a 2.5-point favorite against Rutgers; from a 13-point underdog to an 11-point underdog against South Carolina; and from a 17-point dog to a 15-point dog against Texas A&M.

Four other lined Arkansas games haven’t moved.

The biggest fade team was Northwestern. Five of the Wildcats’ nine lined games moved against them, including a road game at Iowa that saw them go from 12- to 8.5-point road favorites. In an interview with DonBest, Nugget sportsbook director Tony Miller said his team took a position on the Cats, and expected disagreement.

A few other notables:

• Texas went from a pick ‘em to a 1.5-point favorite against Oklahoma. The Longhorns are considered to be between the 13th and 15th best team in the country based on futures odds, but Phil Steele’s annual ranks them fifth.
• Ole Miss is currently a 2-point road favorite against Vanderbilt after opening -4. Interestingly, the Commodores have been listed anywhere between 2.5- and 4-point favorites online for the better part of a month.
• Aside from the aforementioned Northwestern-Iowa line, only three other games moved by a field goal or more. Notre Dame went from -18 to -21 against Navy; Arizona State went from a pick ‘em to -3 against Wisconsin; and LSU went from 2-point dogs to 1.5-point favorites in a road game at Ole Miss.

* * *

Updated Golden Nugget line moves (1.5 points or more), courtesy of DonBest.com:

UNLV
Minnesota -15 (-13)

Ole Miss -2 (-4)
Vanderbilt

Northwestern -9 (-10.5)
California

Mississippi State
Oklahoma State -12.5 (-14)

Oregon -22.5 (-21)
Virginia

Wisconsin
Arizona State -3 (pk)

Ohio State -19.5 (-21)
California

Nevada
Florida State -27.5 (-26)

Iowa
Iowa State -2 (-4)

Tennessee
Oregon -23.5 (-25)

Tennessee
Florida -14 (-12)

Auburn
LSU -16.5 (-18)

Arkansas -2.5 (pk)
Rutgers

Texas A&M -15 (-17)
Arkansas

Washington
Stanford -11.5 (-10)

Oregon -35.5 (-37)
Colorado

Minnesota
Michigan -17 (-15)

TCU
Oklahoma -7.5 (-9)

South Carolina -11 (-13)
Arkansas

Missouri
Georgia -16.5 (-18)

Boston College
Clemson -20.5 (-22)

Oklahoma
Texas -1.5 (pk)

LSU -1.5 (+2)
Ole Miss

Auburn
Texas A&M -22.5 (-24)

Boise State
BYU -3 (-1)

Utah
USC -19.5 (-18)

Arizona -18.5 (-20)
Colorado

Notre Dame -16.5 (-18)
Air Force

Northwestern -8 (-12.5)
Iowa

Navy
Notre Dame -21 (-18)

Penn State -6.5 (-8)
Minnesota

Texas -10 (-12)
West Virginia

Washington
UCLA -4 (-2)

Washington State
Arizona State -17 (-19)

The post With coaching upgrade, Arkansas has emerged as an early ‘play-on’ team; Who else is drawing interest? appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

When the Golden Nugget released point spreads for almost 250 college football games in the 2013 season, they left out only six total Pac-12 matchups.

That’s where we come in. Continuing today, we’re going conference by conference to give a preview of sorts based on the Golden Nugget’s lines. Using their point spreads to project all remaining conference games that they chose not to line, we’ll calculate win odds and then projected standings for the 2013 season.

[Related: How do you convert point spreads into a team’s percentage chance of winning a game?]

Without further adieu, here’s an early look at the Pac-12.

PAC-12 PROJECTED STANDINGS FOR 2013

NORTH

Oregon 8-1
Stanford 7-2
Oregon State 5-4
Washington 5-4
California 2-7
Washington State 1-8
Total: 28-26

SOUTH

USC 7-2
Arizona State 6-3
Arizona 5-4
UCLA 5-4
Utah 3-6
Colorado 0-9
Total: 26-28

Notables: Who needs Chip Kelly? Oregon is favored by at least 20 points in five of its conference matchups and by single digits once—by “only” 4 at Stanford in Week 11 … There appears to be a five-team jumble in the middle of the Pac-12 that includes Arizona State, Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA and Washington, all of which are only separated by a couple points in the power rankings … Poor Colorado. First-year coach Mike MacIntyre has his hands full, as the Buffaloes are at least 20-point underdogs in seven of nine Pac-12 games, and their only realistic shot at a win appears to be at home against California in Week 12.

WIN ODDS

Oregon 8.18
USC 6.74
Stanford 6.54
Arizona State 5.64
Arizona 5.41
Oregon State 5.40
Washington 4.97
UCLA 4.54
Utah 2.88
California 1.90
Washington State 1.34
Colorado 0.46

WEEK 1

No conference games.

WEEK 2

Washington State at USC -21

WEEK 3

Oregon State -6 at Utah

WEEK 4

Arizona State at Stanford -10

WEEK 5

USC at Arizona State pk
Colorado at Oregon State -22
Arizona at Washington -5
Stanford -18.5 at Washington State
California at Oregon -34

WEEK 6

UCLA -5 at Utah
Washington at Stanford -10
Oregon -37 at Colorado
Washington State at California -3.5*

WEEK 7

Arizona at USC -7
Colorado at Arizona State -27
California at UCLA -16.5
Stanford -13 at Utah
Oregon -14 at Washington
Oregon State -13 at Washington State

WEEK 8

Washington at Arizona State -5
Utah at Arizona -12
UCLA at Stanford -10
Oregon State -13 at California
Washington State at Oregon -35.5

WEEK 9

Utah at USC -18
Arizona -20 at Colorado
Stanford -3 at Oregon State
California at Washington -17
Arizona State -15 at Washington State
UCLA at Oregon -20

WEEK 10

USC at Oregon State -2
Arizona -11 at California
Colorado at UCLA -22
Arizona State -15 at Washington State

WEEK 11

Oregon -4 at Stanford
UCLA at Arizona -4
USC -17 at California
Arizona State -7 at Utah*
Colorado at Washington -24.5*

WEEK 12

Washington at UCLA -2
Oregon State at Arizona State -4.5
Washington State at Arizona -19
Stanford at USC -1
Utah at Oregon -28.5
California -4.5 at Colorado*

WEEK 13

Oregon -12 at Arizona
California at Stanford -22
Arizona State at UCLA -3
USC -24.5 at Colorado
Washington at Oregon State -5
Utah -3 at Washington State*

WEEK 14

Washington State at Washington -14
Oregon State at Oregon -16
Arizona at Arizona State -5
UCLA at USC -7
Colorado at Utah -17*

*Projected. (Not an official Golden Nugget line.)

The post Pac-12 Projected Standings 2013: Even without Chip Kelly, point spreads say Oregon could run the table appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

The Miami Dolphins are the only team besides the New England Patriots to win the AFC East in the past decade, and now they’re becoming a trendy sleeper pick to do so again in 2013.

Miami made big splashes in the offseason, signing deep threat Mike Wallace to give second-year QB Ryan Tannehill a legitimate deep threat while bolstering the defense with cornerback Brent Grimes, linebacker Danelle Ellerbe and No. 3 overall pick Dion Jordan.

Those moves, combined with New England’s suddenly questionable receiving corps, have many thinking the unthinkable: The Patriots won’t win the AFC East.

One ESPN writer says the Dolphins have “one of the league’s most improved rosters” and are thus his “sleeper pick for 2013 in the AFC East.” Another says “we’ve seen the best of [Tom Brady].” A USA Today writer says the Dolphins “could be ‘wow’ good if all aligns properly” and questions whether Brady can “excel with this hodgepodge of wide receivers and a pair of injury-prone tight ends.” Another blogger writes, “Watch out, New England,” and our own BTB Forum members are saying, “we will see Dolphins win the AFC East” and “the entire [AFC East] will be a little weak.”

And on and on.

Should we buy into the belief that Miami can dethrone this New England dynasty? Or, better yet, haven’t we been here before?

The Patriots have pulled these stunts in the past, trading Brady’s key weapons or letting them walk via free agency while everyone on the outside says they’re a bunch of idiots. They did it with Deion Branch. They did it with Randy Moss. And now they’ve done it again with Wes Welker.

Do we believe Wes Welker is a fantastic wide receiver? Sure. But do we think Tom Brady will suddenly forget how to throw a football without Welker in the slot? Um, no.

When are we going to realize that the secret to New England’s sustained success isn’t the guys who are catching the passes, but rather the guy with pinpoint accuracy who’s throwing them the ball?

Over the past 10 years, here’s a quick look at just how dominating the Patriots have been in the AFC East.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, SINCE 2003

Average wins: 12.6
Won division by: 3.4 games per year

The only time in the past decade New England didn’t win this division (2008) was when Bernard Pollard torpedoed Brady’s knee in Week 1, and even then Bill Belichick rode Matt Cassel to an 11-5 record and lost out on the playoffs via tiebreaker.

Anyway, here are the AFC East futures odds for 2013, courtesy of the LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas.

ODDS TO WIN AFC EAST IN 2013

New England Patriots: -700
Miami Dolphins: +500
Buffalo Bills: +1500
New York Jets: +2200

BOTTOM LINE: ARE THE DOLPHINS WORTH A SHOT AT 5-TO-1 ODDS?

In our eyes, no. But if you’re one of the Miami “believers” out there, at least take the following away from this post: It’s probably best to wait.

Why? Well, a few reasons.

1. It’ll give you a little bit of time to see this team on the field before backing your opinion with money. Even if the Dolphins are greatly improved and tied with the Patriots after the first four or five weeks, oddsmakers will still have New England as a heavy favorite and you’ll still be able to get decent value on Miami. But the chances of them being tied with the Patriots early in the season are slim because…
2. The Dolphins have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, and it’s particularly front-loaded with games at Indianapolis, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans, and vs. Baltimore all within the first five weeks.
3. The Patriots, on the other hand, have an easy early schedule with the Bills, Jets and Buccaneers in the first three weeks and will very likely get off to a 3-0 start.

So that’s our best advice. If you’re in love with the Dolphins’ offseason moves like a lot of others, it might be best to show some patience in the early part of the regular season.

The post Buy or Sell: Are Dolphins legitimate threats to win AFC East in 2013? If so, should you bet them now? appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

So, by now you’re probably aware that the Golden Nugget released point spreads for almost 250 college football games in the 2013 season.

Of those, 83 different teams have at least one game with a line already and—no shocker here—the SEC has point spreads for all but 12 of its total matchups.

That’s where we come in. Starting today, we’ll go conference by conference to give a preview of sorts based on the Golden Nugget’s lines. Using their point spreads to project all remaining conference games that they chose not to line, we’ll calculate win odds and then projected standings for the 2013 season.

[Related: How do you convert point spreads into a team’s percentage chance of winning a game?]

We’ll start with the SEC.

SEC PROJECTED STANDINGS FOR 2013

WEST

Alabama 7-1
Texas A&M 6-2
Ole Miss 5-3
LSU 5-3
Mississippi State 3-5
Arkansas 2-6
Auburn 1-7
Total: 29-27

EAST

Georgia 6-2
South Carolina 6-2
Florida 5-3
Vanderbilt 3-5
Tennessee 3-5
Missouri 3-5
Kentucky 1-7
Total: 27-29

WIN ODDS

Alabama 7.38
Georgia 6.29
Texas A&M 6.08
South Carolina 5.95
Florida 5.36
Ole Miss 4.86
LSU 4.74
Vanderbilt 3.11
Tennessee 3.09
Missouri 2.63
Mississippi State 2.56
Arkansas 1.66
Auburn 1.49
Kentucky 0.80

WEEK 1

Ole Miss -4 at Vanderbilt

WEEK 2

South Carolina at Georgia -4

WEEK 3

Alabama -6 at Texas A&M
Mississippi State -1 at Auburn
Vanderbilt at South Carolina -11

WEEK 4

Auburn at LSU -18
Tennessee at Florida -12

WEEK 5

Ole Miss at Alabama -17
Texas A&M -17 at Arkansas
LSU at Georgia -6
Florida -20 at Kentucky

WEEK 6

Arkansas at Florida -17
Ole Miss -13 at Auburn*
LSU -9 at Mississippi State
Georgia -11 at Tennessee
Kentucky at South Carolina -23.5
Missouri at Vanderbilt -6*

WEEK 7

Alabama -30 at Kentucky
South Carolina -13 at Arkansas
Florida at LSU -4
Texas A&M -4 at Ole Miss
Missouri at Georgia -18

WEEK 8

Arkansas at Alabama -29
Auburn at Texas A&M -24
LSU at Ole Miss -2
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -16
Florida -6 at Missouri
Georgia -10 at Vanderbilt
South Carolina -7.5 at Tennessee*

WEEK 9

Tennessee at Alabama -27
Kentucky at Mississippi State -14*
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -16
South Carolina -7 at Missouri

WEEK 10

Auburn at Arkansas -3.5
Mississippi State at South Carolina -15
Florida vs. Georgia -4
Tennessee at Missouri -2.5*

WEEK 11

LSU at Alabama -11.5
Arkansas at Ole Miss -16.5*
Auburn at Tennessee -8
Mississippi State at Texas A&M -20*
Vanderbilt at Florida -14*
Missouri -7.5 at Kentucky*

WEEK 12

Alabama -23 at Mississippi State
Georgia -15 at Auburn
Florida at South Carolina -5
Kentucky at Vanderbilt -16.5*

WEEK 13

Mississippi State pk at Arkansas*
Texas A&M at LSU -1
Missouri at Ole Miss -13.5*
Kentucky at Georgia -29
Vanderbilt at Tennessee -1

WEEK 14

Alabama -24 at Auburn
Arkansas at LSU -17
Ole Miss -6.5 at Mississippi State
Texas A&M -13 at Missouri
Tennessee -7.5 at Kentucky

*Projected. (Not an official Golden Nugget line.)

The post SEC Projected Standings 2013: Can Alabama run the table? Is Ole Miss the surprise team in the West? appeared first on Beyond The Bets.

The Golden Nugget Casino decided to double the fun when it posted its annual College Football Games of the Year lines today.

In the past, the Nugget has released point spreads for approximately 100 marquee games, with most of them coming from BCS conferences. This year, the sportsbook released lines for a whopping 248 games—and 83 of 125 FBS teams were represented in all.

The lines went on the board at 1 p.m. local time, and bettors are permitted to make maximum wagers of $1,000.

It will be interesting to see how the early action compares to previous years given that Phil Steele’s hugely influential preseason magazine has yet to be released.

Last year, almost every big Day 1 line move corresponded with Steele’s opinions.

We’ve listed the point spreads below and will provide a recap of the early moves sometime this weekend. Also, courtesy of Warren Sharp, here is a fantastic line summary breakdown.

* * *

GOLDEN NUGGET GOY lines

Thursday, Aug. 29
UNLV at Minnesota -13
North Carolina at South Carolina -12
Ole Miss -4 at Vanderbilt

Saturday, Aug. 31
Washington State at Auburn -11.5
Northwestern -10.5 at California
Nevada at UCLA -15
Colorado vs. Colorado State -3.5
Temple at Notre Dame -24
Penn State -6.5 vs. Syracuse
Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State -14
BYU -3.5 at Virginia
Boise State at Washington -2
Alabama -17 vs. Virginia Tech
Georgia -3.5 at Clemson
LSU -4 vs. TCU

Monday, Sept. 2
Florida State -13 at Pittsburgh

Saturday, Sept. 7
Washington State at USC -21
South Carolina at Georgia -4
Syracuse at Northwestern -13
South Florida at Michigan State -16
Notre Dame at Michigan PK
San Diego State at Ohio State -21.5
West Virginia at Oklahoma -16
Texas -7.5 at BYU
Oregon -21 at Virginia
Florida -2.5 at Miami
Arizona -17 at UNLV

Thursday, Sept. 12
TCU -4 at Texas Tech

Saturday, Sept. 14
Mississippi State -1 at Auburn
Wisconsin at Arizona State PK
Ohio State -21 at California
Boston College at USC -21.5
Nevada at Florida State -26
Iowa at Iowa State -4
Louisville -14 at Kentucky
UCLA at Nebraska -6
Tulsa at Oklahoma -18
Alabama -6 at Texas A&M
Ole Miss at Texas -8
Oregon State -6 at Utah 
Washington -11 vs. Illinois
Central Michigan at UNLV -4
Tennessee at Oregon -25
Notre Dame -14 at Purdue
Vanderbilt at South Carolina -11

Thursday, Sept. 19
Clemson -11 at NC State

Saturday, Sept. 21
Oregon State -6.5 at San Diego State
Arizona State at Stanford -10
Michigan -12 at Connecticut
Tennessee at Florida -12
North Carolina at Georgia Tech -4.5
Michigan State at Notre Dame -6
Auburn at LSU -18
West Virginia -2 at Maryland
Arkansas at Rutgers PK
Kansas State at Texas -9
Utah at BYU -7.5
Colorado State at Alabama -41

Thursday, Sept. 26
Virginia Tech -1 at Georgia Tech

Saturday, Sept. 28
Texas A&M -17 at Arkansas
USC at Arizona State PK
Miami -10 at South Florida
LSU at Georgia -6
Southern Miss at Boise State -21.5
Oklahoma at Notre Dame -2
Florida -20 at Kentucky
Florida State -17 at Boston College
Wisconsin at Ohio State -11
Colorado at Oregon State -22
Wake Forest at Clemson -21
Arizona at Washington -5
Stanford -18.5 at Washington State
Oklahoma State -11 at West Virginia
Ole Miss at Alabama -17
South Carolina -14 at Central Florida
California at Oregon -34

Thursday, Oct. 3
Texas -12 at Iowa State
UCLA -5 at Utah

Saturday, Oct. 5
Washington at Stanford -10
Oregon -37 at Colorado
Arkansas at Florida -17
Ohio State -8 at Northwestern
Arizona State vs. Notre Dame -4
Minnesota at Michigan -15
Clemson -8 at Syracuse
Kansas State at Oklahoma State -9
TCU at Oklahoma -9
Louisville -17 at Temple
West Virginia at Baylor -7
North Carolina at Virginia Tech -6.5
LSU -9 at Mississippi State
Michigan State -9 at Iowa
Georgia Tech at Miami -7
Kentucky at South Carolina -23.5
Georgia -11 at Tennessee

Thursday, Oct. 10
Arizona at USC -7
Rutgers at Louisville -10

Friday, Oct. 11
Temple at Cincinnati -18

Saturday, Oct. 12
South Carolina -12 at Arkansas
Colorado at Arizona State -27
California at UCLA -16.5
Missouri at Georgia -18
Alabama -30 at Kentucky
Florida at LSU -4
Texas A&M -4 at Ole Miss
Michigan -2.5 at Penn State
Boston College at Clemson -22
Oklahoma vs. Texas PK
Georgia Tech at BYU -3
Stanford -13 at Utah
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech -13.5
Oregon -14 at Washington
Oregon State -13 at Washington State
Northwestern at Wisconsin -6
Baylor at Kansas State -5

Thursday, Oct. 17
Miami at North Carolina PK

Friday, Oct. 18
Central Florida at Louisville -11

Saturday, Oct. 19
Washington at Arizona State -5
Utah at Arizona -12
UCLA at Stanford -10
Oregon State -13 at California
Minnesota at Northwestern -15
USC at Notre Dame -5
Florida -6 at Missouri
LSU at Ole Miss -2
Iowa at Ohio State -23
TCU at Oklahoma State -10
Florida State at Clemson -2
Georgia -10 at Vanderbilt
Auburn at Texas A&M -24
Arkansas at Alabama -29
Washington State at Oregon -35.5

Friday, Oct. 25
Boise State at BYU -1

Saturday, Oct. 26
Utah at USC -18
Arizona -20 at Colorado
NC State at Florida State -20
Louisville -13 at South Florida
Oklahoma State -14 at Iowa State
South Carolina -7 at Missouri
Penn State at Ohio State -16
Texas Tech at Oklahoma -14
Stanford -3 at Oregon State
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -16
California at Washington -17
Tennessee at Alabama -27
Notre Dame -18 at Air Force
Northwestern -12 at Iowa
West Virginia at Kansas State -9
UCLA at Oregon -20
Texas -3 at TCU
Arizona State -15 at Washington State

Friday, Nov. 1
USC at Oregon State -2

Saturday, Nov. 2
Auburn at Arkansas -3.5
Arizona -11 at California
Colorado at UCLA -22
Miami at Florida State -8
Georgia -4 vs. Florida
Navy at Notre Dame -18
Michigan at Michigan State -3
North Carolina -2.5 at NC State
Illinois at Penn State -19
Kansas at Texas -31.5
Clemson -13.5 at Virginia
Iowa State at Kansas State -13.5
Ohio State -17 at Purdue
Mississippi State at South Carolina -15
West Virginia at TCU -10

Thursday, Nov. 7
Oregon -4 at Stanford
Oklahoma -6 at Baylor

Friday, Nov. 8
Louisville -10.5 at Connecticut

Saturday, Nov. 9
UCLA at Arizona -4
USC -17 at California
TCU -9.5 at Iowa State
Nebraska at Michigan -4
Penn State -8 at Minnesota
Florida State -18 at Wake Forest
Kansas at Oklahoma State -29
Notre Dame -10.5 at Pittsburgh
BYU at Wisconsin -8
Texas -12 at West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -11.5
Virginia Tech at Miami -3.5
Auburn at Tennessee -8

Thursday, Nov. 14
Georgia Tech at Clemson -9

Friday, Nov. 15
Washington at UCLA -2

Saturday, Nov. 16
Georgia -15 at Auburn 
Oregon State at Arizona State -4.5
Washington State at Arizona -19
Stanford at USC -1
Syracuse at Florida State -16
Michigan at Northwestern -3
Houston at Louisville -17
Michigan State at Nebraska -6
Iowa State at Oklahoma -20
Purdue at Penn State -13.5
Oklahoma State at Texas -6.5
Alabama -23 at Mississippi State
Ohio State -23 at Illinois
TCU at Kansas State -4.5
Utah at Oregon -28.5
Florida at South Carolina -5

Saturday, Nov. 23
Oregon -12 at Arizona 
California at Stanford -22
Arizona State at UCLA -3
USC -24.5 at Colorado
Kentucky at Georgia -29
Michigan State at Northwestern -3
BYU at Notre Dame -11
Memphis at Louisville -24
Texas A&M at LSU -1
Wisconsin -10 at Minnesota
Indiana at Ohio State -25
Baylor at Oklahoma State -11
Washington at Oregon State -5
Nebraska at Penn State PK
Michigan -10.5 at Iowa
Oklahoma -4 at Kansas State
Virginia at Miami -15
Vanderbilt at Tennessee -1

Thursday, Nov. 28
Texas Tech at Texas -16
Ole Miss -6.5 at Mississippi State 

Friday, Nov. 29
Iowa at Nebraska -14
Miami -7 at Pittsburgh 
Washington State at Washington -14
Iowa State at West Virginia -7.5
Oregon State at Oregon -16

Saturday, Nov. 30
Alabama -24 at Auburn 
Arizona at Arizona State -5
Notre Dame at Stanford -5.5
UCLA at USC -7
Florida State at Florida -2
Georgia -9 at Georgia Tech 
Tennessee -7.5 at Kentucky 
Arkansas at LSU -17
Minnesota at Michigan State -14
Ohio State -6 at Michigan
Texas A&M -13 at Missouri
Virginia Tech -10 at Virginia
Penn State at Wisconsin -9
Northwestern -13 at Illinois
Kansas State -21.5 at Kansas 
BYU -7.5 at Nevada
Clemson at South Carolina -4.5
Baylor at TCU -5

Thursday, Dec. 5
Louisville -3 at Cincinnati

Saturday, Dec. 7
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State -3
Texas -8 at Baylor

Saturday, Dec. 14
Army vs. Navy -9

The post Got an early opinion? Golden Nugget releases annual college football Games of the Year lines appeared first on Beyond The Bets.