New West Notes

Weekend Edition

Bill Bradley — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 16:00:14 +0000

The Batman pictures do very well when America is in a dark mood. The Dark Knight, sequel to 2005’s franchise reboot Batman Begins, shattered the opening day box office record on Friday. Here are some scenes from the film.

** SUNDAY – WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Afghanistan.

John McCain, following his private Saturday fundraiser at the Hamptons estate of Revlon owner/defense contractor Ron Perelman – one of his companies makes the HummVee, which has proved to be so problematic in Iraq – attends a New York Yankees game today.

** F1 SUNDAY. The Formula One racing circuit returns with the German Grand Prix. It is a hard-fought four-way for the world driver’s championship between Brit fave Lewis Hamilton, the first black driver in F1, of McLaren-Mercedes, defending world champ Kimi Raikonnen of Ferrari, his teammate Felipe Massa, and BMW’s Robert Kubica. The race goes off at 10 AM Pacific on Fox.

** SATURDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama, following a brief visit to Kuwait, is in Afghanistan. He’s touring combat zones and meeting and playing basketball with the troops. Traveling with Obama are Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, a decorated Vietnam vet and Republican who is an old friend of John McCain, and Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, a West Point grad and former Army Ranger.

John McCain is off the trail, but has a private fundraiser in New York at defense contractor Ron Perelman’s Hamptons estate.

** IRAQI P.M. BACKS OBAMA PLAN. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told the German magazine Der Spiegel that he supports Barack Obama’s 16-month timetable for the withdrawal of US combat brigades from his country. Maliki’s support for a withdrawal timeline became known at the beginning of the week. The initial White House response was that he had been the victim of “a transcription error.” By Friday morning, the White House said that the US and Iraqi governments had agreed to a “time horizon” for withdrawal.

Obama favors a surge in Afghanistan and a residual force in Iraq to counter any resurgence of the Al Qaeda affiliate there and continue to provide training and technical assistance to the Iraqi armed forces.

Says Maliki: “U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes.”

** TV AD WARS: GLOBAL O v. LATIN MAC. From my other blog.

** CALIFORNIA: BUSH MOST UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT IN HISTORY OF FIELD POLL, 71% DISAPPROVAL. The Field Poll is out with new numbers on George W. Bush. 24% approve, 71% disapprove. This is slightly worse than Richard Nixon at the height of the Watergate scandal which cost him his presidency. The worst numbers in the 47 years that the Field Poll has measured presidential standings in the Golden State.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil closed down on Friday at $128.88 per barrel.

The drop of nearly $19 per barrel came amidst multiple signs that the weak US economy will cut future demand and fresh signs of a rapprochement between the US and Iran. US and Iranian negotiators are talking in Geneva this weekend about Iran’s nuclear program and further settlement of the security and political situation in Iraq.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Prepping For A Larger Stage, And More

Bill Bradley — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:20:03 +0000

YouTube Direktvideo link

With Barack Obama preparing for what could be a very big week, John McCain’s campaign tries to position him as an opportunist, mainly around the Iraq surge.

** DARK KNIGHT SHATTERING RECORDS. The Dark Knight, the sequel to the 2005 franchise reboot Batman Begins, is reportedly shattering the Friday opening day record with a studio projection of $60 million at the domestic box office.

I’ll write more about the movie – trailers for it have been playing on NWN Weekend Editions the past four weekends – here and in a column that will be linked here.

** GRAMM RESIGNS. McCain for President national campaign co-chairman Phil Gramm announced his resignation Friday evening on the East Coast. Gramm, who had been John McCain’s top economic advisor, has been under heavy fire for his infamous “nation of whiners” remarks. But conservative columnist Bob Novak reported this morning that Gramm and McCain had patched up their issues and Gramm would continue as top campaign surrogate and advisor. Which caused jubilation amongst Team Obama.

** OIL DROPS BELOW $130. On the eve of open negotiations this weekend in Geneva between the US and Iran, crude oil dropped below $130 per barrel, closing at $128.88 per barrel. One week ago, in the wake of saber rattling between Iran, Israel, and the US, oil hit a record high of over $147 per barrel.

** MAC ATTACK. With Barack Obama about to make his big foreign tour of the Middle East and Western Europe, John McCain’s campaign is this week launching the first all-out attack TV ad of the general election. Team McCain hits Obama on not having been to Iraq recently, never holding a hearing on Afghanistan, and voting against the troop funding that made the surge possible.

Here’s the script:

Announcer: Barack Obama never held a single Senate hearing on Afghanistan. He hasn’t been to Iraq in years. He voted against funding our troops. Positions that helped him win his nomination. Now Obama is changing to help himself become president.

John McCain has always supported our troops and the surge that’s working. McCain. Country first.
McCain: I’m John McCain and I approve this message.

Obama’s Senate Foreign Relations subcommitteee on Europe doesn’t have specific purview over Afghanistan.

The ad will run in the 11 battleground states McCain has been advertising in since June 6th, and on national cable shows.

** OBAMA TRIP EMERGING. Some of the details of Barack Obama’s trip to the Middle East and Western Europe are emerging. He’ll meet with a half-dozen heads of government. In Israel, he will meet with President Shimon Peres and current Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, along with several politicians who may replace the unpopular Olmert, who is under the gun on charges of widespread corruption. Those leaders include Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Defense Minister and former Prime Minister Ehud Barack, and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He’ll also meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad.

His biggest appearance will be in Berlin, where he will not speak at the Brandenberg Gate, site of notable speeches by Presidents Reagan and Kennedy. German authorities expect a crowd of some 100,000 for that speech.

Obama, who consulted with Secretary of State Condi Rice on the trip, will be accompanied on trip by several foreign policy advisors, including former Middle East envoy Dennis Ross, former National Security Advisor Tony Lake, and former State Department policy planning chief Greg Craig.

** HMM … GRAMM MAKES UP WITH MAC. Conservative columnist Bob Novak reports that John McCain and Phil Gramm have patched things up after Gramm’s infamous “nation of whiners” remarks. And Gramm, a national campaign co-chairman and top economic advisor, will continue as a campaign surrogate and advisor. Needless to say, Team O is thrilled about this …

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger tours the US Olympic team training facilities this morning in Chula Vista, outside San Diego. He also meets with team members. No webcast, unfortunately.

I’ll have more on Schwarzenegger and some cinematic and TV developments. Which don’t directly involve him, but do involve his most famous franchise.

THE MORNING COLUMN: PREPPING FOR A LARGER STAGE.

While the typical back-and-forth continues in the presidential campaign, the most important events are occurring right now off-stage. Barack Obama makes his debut on the international stage next week. He’s traveling to the Middle East and Europe, and his itinerary is being kept a bit hazy for now, both for reasons of security and of stagecraft, if not exactly statecraft.

Obama is in Chicago, preparing substantively for the trip with assistance from his “mini-State Department” of 300 foreign policy advisors organized into various task forces. He’s also overseeing the direction of teams of advance people and negotiators fanned out in Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Jordan, France, Germany, and Britain, where his events are being prepared.

Obama goes abroad at an interesting moment in both US and global politics. He’s opened up a lead over John McCain, but not a big lead, though polls in many swing states are promising. He is favored by voters on almost all the issue areas. And the contours of the political choice this year — very unpopular president usually backed by McCain, 80% of the electorate feeling the country is on the wrong track, unpopular war, economic trouble — are favorable to his candidacy. But Obama trails McCain with regard to the Commander-in-Chief question. Hence this trip.

As he prepares, the Bush Administration has executed a turnabout on Iran, its de facto partner in mutual saber rattling, if not much else. The undersecretary of state will negotiate with a top Iranian representative Saturday in Geneva over the Iranian nuclear program. The US is planning a diplomatic presence in Tehran for the first time since Islamic radicals seized the embassy there in 1979.

Of course, as NWN readers know, the US has negotiated on and off with Iran for years. Behind the scenes, for the most part. To some apparent effect. But never so publicly.

The potential rapprochement has helped bring the price of oil down sharply this week. Well, that and mounting evidence that people are cutting back their use of energy as the economic vise of skyhigh oil tightens.

It’s an interesting moment in Iraq, as well, where the government now wants the US to set a timeline for withdrawal of troops. Obama opposed the surge in Iraq, which now certainly looks like a mistake.

The US military surge there has been effective, along with some realpolitik deals with factional leaders and Iranian pressure on some Shiite factions, in significantly improving the security situation. Is it time to declare victory and come home?

But many elites in the US, noting the position of Iraq on the map, don’t want to come home. They want permanent bases. Is John McCain among them? He’s made varying statements over the past few years that could be taken one way or another.

While the situation in Iraq has improved, at least for now, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated. As I’ve been writing for a couple of years. As has the situation in Pakistan, which Obama apparently will not visit. I doubt his security could be guaranteed there.

Most Americans, of course, think the Iraq War was a mistake. McCain championed it, expecting things to go much better after the invasion than they did. Obama opposed it.

So who made the bigger political mistake? McCain in supporting the invasion? Or Obama in opposing the surge?

** ANTI-GAY MARRIAGE INITIATIVE TRAILING IN NEW CALIFORNIA FIELD POLL. The attempt to overturn same sex marriage in California with a constitutional amendment on the November ballot has a serious uphill climb to make. In the new Field Poll, the measure, Proposition 8, trails by nine points. It’s 42% yes, 51% no.

California’s independent voters are heavily opposed to the anti-gay marriage measure, which is also opposed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and all top Democrats. Barack Obama opposes Prop 8; John McCain favors it.

Says Field Poll director Mark di Camillo: Democratic and Republican voter sentiments are poles apart on this issue. Sixty-three percent of Democrats intend to vote No, while 68% of Republicans are ready to vote Yes. Non-partisans are overwhelmingly on the No side – 66% to 27%. There are also big differences in voting preferences by region. Voters living in California’s coastal counties, which represents 69% of all likely voters, oppose Prop. 8 56% to 37%. Opinions are almost reversed among Californians living in inland counties, where supporters outnumber opponents 54% to 40%.

** SCHWARZENEGGER WELCOMES ONTARIO TO WESTERN CLIMATE INITIATIVE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger welcomed the Canadian province of Ontario into the Western Climate Initiative, which he founded to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “Like California, Ontario is leading the way in recognizing that we must take action now to fight global warming and to reduce our dependence on fossil fuel. Instead of waiting for our federal governments to act, our states and provinces are working together to find solutions that both protect the environment and grow our economy. Working with our partners, California can achieve nearly double the reductions in global warming pollution than if we go at the problem alone. Ontario is doing some great things to combat global warming, and I welcome them into the WCI.”

In February 2007, Schwarzenegger joined with the governors of New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington to create the WCI. In August 2007, WCI Partners established their regional greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal – 15 percent below 2005 levels. The regional goal reflects the combined impact of emissions reduction goals set by each WCI Partner. It does not replace partners’ individual goals.

Since the WCI first formed, the states of Utah and Montana and the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Manitoba and Quebec have joined. Observers of WCI’s work include the states of Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, and Wyoming, the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, and the Mexican border states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, and Tamaulipas.

** TV AD WARS: GLOBAL O v. LATIN MAC. From my other blog.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Chicago, with no public events scheduled, prepping for his big debut next week on the international stage.

John McCain is in Warren, Michigan, a battleground state where he trails by 10 points in recent polling, for a town hall meeting on new vehicles. He appears tonight on NBC’s Late Night with Conan O’Brien.

YouTube Direktvideo link

America negotiates with Iran over its nuclear program this weekend in Geneva and plans a diplomatic presence in Tehran for the first time in decades.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record last Friday, crude oil is now trading down in the $130 to $131 per barrel range amidst multiple signs that the weak US economy will cut future demand and fresh signs of a rapprochement between the US and Iran.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Iran, Oil Markets, Russia, And More

Bill Bradley — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:40:50 +0000

YouTube Direktvideo link

John McCain says that Barack Obama, prepping for a big foreign tour, is wrong on Iraq and wrong on Afghanistan.

** B.C. SAYS “READY TO GO’ FOR O. The two major Democratic figures of the ’90s, Bill Clinton and Al Gore, both selected today to announce big new initiatives. Gore did his thing, on renewable energy, in Washington while Clinton was at his foundation headquarters in New York, where he called for a new global initiative to fight malaria.

The former president, said by many to be sulking after his wife’s defeat for the Democratic presidential nomination by Barack Obama, said he’s “ready to go” for Obama. After “a good talk” between the two, Clinton said he will go anywhere, any time he’s asked to campaign for the freshman Illinois senator. I can think of some swing states where Clinton would be very effective. He was actually very effect campaigning for his wife, when he wasn’t making himself the center of attention with angst or anger-ridden comments.

** GORE CALLS FOR CHALLENGE DECADE, REJECTS V.P. NOD. Al Gore today set a goal of providing 100% of America’s electricity by renewable power in 10 years. That’s kind of ambitious, don’t you think? He says he thinks it’s doable. And necessary, as he cites increased instability in the Middle East, the melting of the ice cap over the Arctic Sea, and freakish weather in Antarctica, amongst a number of reasons, including improvements in renewable technology. Obviously, he’s not running for vice president again.

** GAVIN ON HUFFPOST. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom continues his exploratory campaign for governor of California with this piece on the Huffington Post. In it, he touts San Francisco’s environmental leadership. Newsom is venturing to Austin, Texas for the Netroots convention there. He also has a radio show on Air America, as I believe I mentioned a while back. Whether the former Hillary Clinton national campaign co-chairman knows how to actually outflank old friend and family benefactor Jerry Brown, should the former governor-turned-attorney general choose to run in 2010, is another matter.

** MENDELSOHN IN AS R.N.C. COMMUNICATIONS OVERSEER. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s former communications director Adam Mendelsohn, now a private consultant, will quarterback convention communications on behalf of John McCain and the Republican National Committee. Mendelsohn is now the senior consultant overseeing such matters for September’s Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota. He’ll be working with convention communications manager Matt Burns, former communications director for the US Department of Veteran Affairs.

** JUNE MONEY HUNT: O 52, MAC 22. It turns out that, contrary to an erroneous report in the Wall Street Journal, Barack Obama raised $52 million last month. That was his second best month. John McCain had his best month, with $22 million. The WSJ had claimed that Obama only raised $30 million in June. Incidentally, I got a subscriber missive from the WSJ saying that with President Bush now again authorizing public negotiations with Iran (see the morning column) and on the verge of ordering further Iraq troop withdrawals, this will hurt Obama. No. This will validate Obama.

Having profiled Rupert Murdoch, the new owner of the Journal, back in the ’90s, I can tell you it’s not always clear what he is up to. He seems to like, actually, Obama, though not as much as he liked Tony Blair after correctly assessing him as the coming man in Britain. But he installs a lot of ideologues in his media shops. With this sort of reportage and analysis creeping into the Journal, things may be becoming rather problematic there.

Incidentally, the limping Democratic National Committee is now matching the Republican National Committee in fundraising.

THE MORNING COLUMN: IRAN, OIL MARKETS, AND RUSSIA.

Do we believe in coincidence? The US announces it will have the number 3 official in the State Department negotiate this coming weekend with Iran’s national security advisor on the odd Islamic Republic’s nuclear progam. And oil prices drop nearly $10 a barrrel.

Now there is another factor in this, i.e., the continuing “slowdown” of the US economy, epitomized by remarkably low levels of driving over the 4th of July holiday weekend in the face of record gasoline prices. But we already knew that.

This is a stark demonstration of the geopolitical risk premium built into the price of oil.

I have no idea how much of the price can be attributed to this. Though there are some analysts who privately tell me they think about $50 per barrel can be attributed to the continuous buzz of war in one or another portions of the Middle East and contiguous South Asia.

I do know this. If the KGB still existed — that is a little joke — and I were an agent of that organization, I would do everything possible to drum up talk of war.

No nation has prospered more from and become more powerful as a result of the controlled sense of hysteria coursing through global events since 9/11 than Russia.

Think about it. Russia’s return to the ranks of the world’s few great powers is fueled by record commodity prices, most notably in oil. Its ability to manipulate events in the Middle East — it’s providing advanced air defense systems to Iran, which has to factor into any real or imagined timeline for Israel or even the US with regard to a potential military strike — is dependent on constant rumors of war.

** TV AD WARS: GLOBAL O v. LATIN MAC. From my other blog.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Chicago, with no public events scheduled.

John McCain is in Kansas City, Missouri, a battleground state where he trails slightly in recent polling.

** SCHWARZENEGGER AND BUSH LIVE WEBCAST THIS AFTERNOON. Another interesting day in the life of Arnold Schwarzenegger. The governor greets President George W. Bush and Air Force One this afternoon at Redding Airport. They then get a briefing on the fire situation and do an aerial tour of the rural Northern California fires. Then the two will brief the public and press in Redding, where Bush will announce federal support for the extraordinary fire outbreak. Which Schwarzenegger, of course, at least in part attributes to climate change. Which Bush has chosen to do nothing to halt.

I’ll have a piece on Schwarzenegger and his recent moves tomorrow.

The event will be webcast live at 3:50 PM on www.gov.ca.gov.

** MEET MAC’S NEW SUPREMO: STEVE SCHMIDT AND HIS TUMULTUOUS FIRST WEEK. It was a very interesting first meeting. In January 2006, I’d revealed that then embattled Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was getting a new campaign manager. A name Republican operative and veteran of the Bush/Cheney White House to balance the new, Democratic, chief of staff I’d written about a few weeks earlier. I described Schwarzenegger’s impending new campaign manager, a fellow named Steve Schmidt, as a right-wing hatchet man to balance Schwarzenegger’s new chief of staff Susan Kennedy, the longtime Democratic operative, a pro-choice leader and lesbian married on Maui whose appointment enraged California’s far right.

Schwarzenegger’s then new communications director, Adam Mendelsohn, called and told me I had it wrong, that Schmidt was a reasonable and moderate pragmatist, as well as one of his best friends.

Early in our first meeting, I wasn’t so sure about that.

After about 30 seconds, I realized that Schmidt was giving me no response to anything I said. The former high school tight end, dubbed by Karl Rove as the “Bullet” for his imposing shaven-headed mien, simply stared impassively at me as I spoke, offering only the briefest, monotonal responses. I decided to ignore the potentially intimidating modus operandi and act as though I were getting normal responses to what I was saying.

After 10 minutes of this, I was getting normal responses from Schmidt. Thoughtful, amusing even, in a dry sort of way. His earlier act had been an intimidation technique. Later, when Schwarzenegger was working on getting recalcitrant Republican legislators to vote for a massive infrastructure bond package, state Senate Democratic leader Don Perata described Schmidt’s role to me in the meetings as being “like Frank Nitti (Al Capone’s enforcer), just sitting there and staring at them.” … From my other blog.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on Friday, crude oil is now trading down in the $136 to $137 per barrel range amidst multiple signs that the weak US economy will cut demand and fresh signs of a rapprochement between the US and Iran.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Obama’s Huge California Lead, And More

Bill Bradley — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:20:14 +0000

YouTube Direktvideo link

Barack Obama’s new TV ad, featuring his work with Republican Senator Dick Lugar on loose nuclear weapons.

** TV AD WARS: GLOBAL O v. LATIN MAC. From my other blog.

** IOWA: OBAMA LEAD EDGES UP. Barack Obama has opened up a 10-point lead over John McCain in battleground Iowa, 48% to 38% in the new Rasmussen Poll. Obama had a 2-point edge in May and a 7-point lead in June. President Bush is especially unpopular in Iowa.

** MICHIGAN: OBAMA LEAD EDGES UP. Barack Obama, who led John McCain in last month’s Rasmussen poll of the state by 3 points, now leads in Michigan by 8 points. It’s now Obama 47%, McCain 39%. Obama’s gains in the big battleground state have come amongst independents, where he’s turned a 5-point deficit into a 7-point lead, and men, where he’s cut McCain’s 19-point lead to a 5-point lead. The development comes with worsening economic news, which is especially hitting Michigan’s traditional manufacturing base.

THE MORNING COLUMN: OBAMA’S HUGE CALIFORNIA LEAD.

Barack Obama has a huge lead in California over John McCain, according to the latest Field Poll. It’s Obama 54%, McCain 30%. This is a seven-point increase in Obama’s lead since May.

McCain had hoped to make a real run at the Golden State. But as I wrote last month in “Obama’s California,” the state had moved very dramatically into Obama’s column.

The numbers in the Field Poll don’t so much tell the tale as reiterate it. The poll was conducted July 8-14.

Obama has a much higher image score than McCain. Obama is 63% favorable and 26% unfavorable. McCain is 48% favorable and 38% unfavorable.

Obama has a huge lead amongst independent voters, 64% to 18%. While Obama and McCain each have predictably big leads with liberal and conservative voters, respectively, Obama also leads with moderate voters, 59% to 23%.

Obama has consolidated his support amongst backers of Hillary Clinton. In February, Clinton won the Democratic primary, 51% to 43%. Now Obama has the backing of her former supporters, 80% to 8%. So much for the theory of disaffected Clintonites going with McCain.

Interestingly, there isn’t much support for choosing Hillary as Obama’s running mate in this state that was once part of the core of the Clinton machine, a state upon which President Clinton showered attention as no other. 48% of Democrats and independents say Obama should not pick her, while 40% say he should.

Women, the core of Hillary’s support, back Obama over McCain, 56% to 27%. Men also favor Obama, 51% to 35%.

Voters under the age of 40 choose Obama over McCain, 60% to 24%. This is an especially problematic number with regard to the future of the Republican Party in California.

McCain had hoped to challenge Obama for the support of Latino voters around the country, based on Obama’s seeming weakness there in the primaries and on McCain’s immigration policy work in the past. But despite a lot of chatter — including some of it by me — it turns out that it was no so much a matter of Latino voters not liking Obama as their liking Clinton. Obama has an enormous edge, 64% to 21%.

Obama leads amongst white voters, 47% to 37%. He also leads amongst Asian-Americans, 59% to 23%. And amongst African-Americans, 89% to 5%.

There is also a huge enthusiasm gap. 51% of Obama supporters describe themselves as very enthusiastic about him. Only 17% of McCain supporters say the same about their pick.

Obama has enormous leads in California’s two major population centers. He’s up 73% to 12% in the San Francisco Bay Area. And 61% to 27% in Los Angeles County. McCain is competitive only in the Central Valley and non-LA Southern California.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in West Lafayette, Indiana and Chicago.

John McCain is in Cincinnati, Ohio and Omaha, Nebraska.

Obama holds a conference on 21st century security threats at Purdue University in advance of next week’s foreign trip. Among the participants are two potential running mates, former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn — who worked closely with Dick Lugar, seen in the Obama TV spot above — and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.

McCain speaks to the NAACP convention, where he is expected to focus on education. He’ll be firing back at Obama on Afghanistan and other national security issues through press avails and statements.

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announces California School Finder, a new web site that allows parents and children to easily access existing data about California’s public schools. This is something he’s wanted to do for a few years now. The event will be webcast live at 11 AM on www.gov.ca.gov.

Schwarzenegger’s then new communications director, Adam Mendelsohn, called and told me I had it wrong, that Schmidt was a reasonable and moderate pragmatist, as well as one of his best friends.

Early in our first meeting, I wasn’t so sure about that.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on Friday, crude oil is now trading down in the $133 to $138 per barrel range amidst multiple signs that the weak US economy will cut demand.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Quick Hits

Bill Bradley — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:00:46 +0000

YouTube Direktvideo link

John McCain’s new TV ad for Latino voters in the Mountain West.

** A DAY OF ENGAGEMENT, AND STRANGENESS. Some strange things going on in the campaign. There are, incidentally, two more national polls – CBS/NY Times and ABC/Washington Post – in addition to the one I showed you this morning showing Barack Obama with a solid lead over John McCain nationally.

Obama laid out a new approach, which is mostly his old approach on Iraq. Draw down forces – something the Bush Administration may be adopting now – from Iraq and redirect them to Afghanistan, where the war is in some trouble. McCain is now amenable to increasing US forces, or perhaps NATO forces, it’s not entirely clear, in the country from which the actual attack against the US on 9/11 emanated.

What was odd about Obama’s speech is he is about to make a fact-finding tour of Iraq and Afghanistan, yet is already issuing pronouncements. He’ll be going with two famous vets in the Senate, Nebraska Republican Chuck Hagel and Rhode Island Democrat Jack Reed.

McCain for the second day referred to a non-existent nation in Eastern Europe – Czechoslovakia – in discussing Russia’s opposition to a US missile shield plan. Czechoslovakia broke up in 1992, following the fall of the Soviet empire. It has been replaced by the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Both candidates also have new TV ads which I find a bit strange. McCain’s new Latino ad, which you see above, and Obama’s brand new ad for battleground states on securing loose nuclear weapons. I’ll get into this in a column for tomorrow.

** “REVENUE NEUTRAL, OVER TIME.” Went to the Press Club luncheon today in Sacramento, which featured the new state Senate minority leader, Dave Cogdill. The scene was somewhat desultory, with most of the folks there in PR or other non-journalistic enterprises with the ongoing collapse of the conventional media’s press corps.

The Central Valley Republican gave a fairly vague talk, inveighing against taxes and eeming to call for the state’s chronic budget deficit to be solved through cuts alone. After several questions, someone asked him the obvious. How would he go about cutting $15 billion? I wouldn’t characterize his response as answer per se, but he did allow as how he is interested in a solution which is ‘revenue neutral, over time.” No one asked what exactly that might mean.

** SAN FRAN: A PROBLEM IN MY OLD HOME TOWN. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who last week announced an exploratory bid for governor of California, only to find that he had a major problem in the form of illegal immigrant teenage crack dealers who had escaped from a group home in the Riverside/San Bernardino area where they were sent by city officials rather than being appropriately deported to Mexico, has a rather bigger problem today. It turns out that a disgruntled engineer, who currently sits in jail, has locked Newsom and other top city officials out of their e-mail accounts. And in fact has disrupted the entire cyber operations of the City and County of San Francisco.

But, you know, it is still the most beautiful city in America. If you can look around the aggressive pandhandlers still hanging around a few years after the promised end to aggressive panhandling.

** BATTLEGROUND MINNESOTA: OBAMA BY 18. The new Rasmussen poll, run by conservative Republican Scott Rasmussen, shows Barack Obama now leading John McCain in Minnesota by a whopping 52% to 34%. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been widely tapped as a Mac VP. But the far right doesn’t like him, for what that is worth, and he is clearly not delivering his home state.

Despite the fact that September’s Republican National Convention will take place, by design, in swing state Minnesota.

** QUINNIPIAC NATIONAL POLL: OBAMA BY NINE. The new Quinnipiac national poll of likely voters, conducted July 8-13, shows Barack Obama leading John McCain, 50% to 41%.

All results are available here. Obama leads by large margins amongst those concerned about the economy, the Iraq War, and health care.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Washington, DC and Chicago.

John McCain is in Albuquerque, New Mexico and St. Louis, Missouri.

Obama addresses the changing situation in Iraq today, where the government wants a timeline for US troop withdrawal, as well as the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. McCain responds.

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger discusses the Veterans Bond Act of 2008, by Republican state Senator Mark Wyland, which would help vets of recent conflicts buy homes through the Cal Vet program. The event will be webcast live at 11 AM on www.gov.ca.gov.

Schwarzenegger’s then new communications director, Adam Mendelsohn, called and told me I had it wrong, that Schmidt was a reasonable and moderate pragmatist, as well as one of his best friends.

Early in our first meeting, I wasn’t so sure about that.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on Friday, crude oil is now trading down in the $136 to $139 per barrel range on fears of a US economic collapse.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Monday Morning Quarterback, And More

Bill Bradley — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:30:45 +0000

YouTube Direktvideo link

Barack Obama addresses the National Council of La Raza convention in San Diego on Sunday. John McCain addresses the convention today.

** BUSH MAKES A MOVE ON OFFSHORE DRILLING — A FEW DAYS BEFORE COMING TO CALIFORNIA. Seemingly making it clear that national Republicans are intent on electing a Democratic governor in California in 2010 — probably former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, the two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination — President George W. Bush today removed the executive block on offshore oil drilling. Now all that has to happen is for Congress to move.

Which, as a top aide to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the San Francisco Democrat who got her start in politics as the Maryland political director for Brown’s 1976 presidential campaign, makes clear will never happen.

Of course, if Bush were actually serious about bringing down oil prices, there are a few actual things he could do right now. Such as release some oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. And crack down on the oil speculation made possible by the, now, former McCain for President campaign co-chairman Phil Gramm and his wife, former federal regulator-turned-Enron board member Wendy Gramm. (Yes, you read that right.) And urge his former colleagues in the oil industry to use the multitude of unused offshore oil leases they already have drilling rights to.

At a certain point, these sorts of political maneuvers become the real world equivalent of The Gong Show.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Could there be, confounding expectations, a California state budget sooner than later? You never know.

** OBAMA UP IN COLORADO. Barack Obama leads John McCain by 4 points in battleground Mountain West state Colorado. In the latest Public Policy Polling survey there, conducted July 9-10 with over 1000 likely voters, Obama is up 47-43. His lead is based on a big edge among Latino voters, 58-34.

In this year’s US Senate race for the seat of retiring Republican Wayne Allard, Democrat Mark Udall leads Bob Schaffer, 47-38. Hall of Fame former Denver Broncos quarterback John Elway, the former Stanford star, is frequently talked about as a future candidate. He trails incumbent Democratic Senator Ken Salazar, who is up for re-election in 2010, 44% to 37%.

** A BIZARRE NEWSWEEK POLL. Many are touting a new Newsweek poll purporting to show Barack Obama only 3 points ahead of John McCain — 44-41 — after last month seeming to lead him by 15 points. I never wrote about the earlier Newsweek poll, which seemed to oversample Democrats a tad.

But media “surprise” at this new poll seems, frankly, idiotic. Because this poll obviously undersamples Democrats. As it has an equivalent number of Republicans and Democrats. When every legitimate and obviously realistic measure recognizes the reality that the Republican brand is in the dumper.

In case you were wondering if the media wants a horse race, no matter what. Here is Exhibit A.

The actual Newsweek article, preposterously, goes on and on about — how can this be? Well, it’s because you have a preposterous sample. But the article never mentions the absurd equivalence of Republican and Democratic identification in the poll’s sample.

Now, do other political journalists bother to examine the actual poll? Of course not. That would distract from the time it takes to get into full yaposphere mode.

THE MORNING COLUMN: MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.

John McCain and Barack Obama scuffle starting out the week over the Latino vote — or Hispanic vote, as the national Republicans still call it — and over the economy and, perhaps most of all, Iraq and the overall Terror War.

Obama was in San Diego yesterday to address the National Council of La Raza convention. McCain is there this afternoon. This, mind you, was a group described by many Republicans during the false dawn of freeflowing immigration of 2006 as a “reconquista” organization. In other words, supposedly dedicated to the Mexican reconquest of the American Southwest.

Er, not so much.

Obama emphasized education and the economy yesterday. McCain today will remind the group of his comprehensive immigration bill — which nearly destroyed his primary candidacy last year — co-authored with Ted Kennedy. He presumably will not mention that he said in a Republican debate that he would not vote for his bill today.

Meanwhile, McCain has a new Spanish-captioned TV ad up over the weekend in Mountain West states. Despite early hopes that brown voters would not vote for a black candidate, Obama has a big lead in public polls amongst Latino voters. But in Florida, of course, McCain is likely to continue to hold a lead with Cuban voters still angry over Fidel Castro’s Communist takeover of the Caribbean island nation some 50 years ago.

Meanwhile, the fight over the slumping national economy will continue. Phil Gramm, McCain’s old buddy — Texas senator-turned-Swiss banker — and national campaign co-chairman and chief economic advisor, is now off the radar screen following his moronic comments about America being “a nation of whiners.”

And Iraq and the Terror War take center stage this week. In the wake of the Iraqi government’s insistence that the US set a timeline for withdrawal of troops, Obama has a new op-ed in today’s New York Times. Tomorrow he will deliver a major speech on the topic.

As all this goes on, Al Qaeda Prime — the actual people who attacked the US on 9/11 — continues to consolidate its position in Pakistan. And Taliban attacks in Afghanistan are on the rise, as are US casualties.

The Pentagon is looking to cut the number of combat brigades in Iraq and increase the force in Afghanistan. It’s certainly about time for the latter.

I’ve been warning on NWN about the situations in Pakistan and Afghanistan for two years now.

Schwarzenegger’s then new communications director, Adam Mendelsohn, called and told me I had it wrong, that Schmidt was a reasonable and moderate pragmatist, as well as one of his best friends.

Early in our first meeting, I wasn’t so sure about that.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Chicago and Cincinnati, Ohio. Obama has private meetings in Chicago, a public event in Cincinnati and private fundraiser there.

John McCain is in San Diego and Albuquerque, New Mexico. McCain addresses the National Council of La Raza in San Diego and does fundraising there and in Albuquerque.

I have a forthcoming column on McCain’s attempt to wrest the Latino vote from Obama.

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger tours the NASA Ames research facility at Moffett Field in the San Francisco Bay Area and then discusses the importance of surveillance drones to the California firefighting effort. The event will be webcast live at 10:45 AM at www.gov.ca.gov.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on Friday, crude oil is trading in the $145 to $146 per barrel range. The big run-up in recent days is mostly due to the saber rattling by and against Iran.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Weekend Edition

Bill Bradley — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:30:37 +0000

YouTube Direktvideo link

The Batman pictures do very well when America is in a dark mood. The Dark Knight, the highly anticipated sequel to 2005’s franchise reboot Batman Begins, opens across the US on July 18th.

** ARNOLD SAYS HE’S OPEN TO OBAMA POST. As I mentioned on Friday and Saturday, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared Sunday morning on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulus. The former Bill Clinton communications director, as I told you yesterday, asked him if he is actually closer to Barack Obama than John McCain on the issues, rattling off an array of such issues.

Schwarzenegger replied that it is McCain who has the longer record of “reaching across the aisle,” one of Schwarzenegger’s trademark tropes. Schwarzenegger is McCain’s biggest backer in the West. His endorsement was key to McCain winning the Republican nomination by knocking Mitt Romney out of the race in the California primary. Schwarzenegger’s former campaign manager, Steve Schmidt — who Schwarzenegger praised as “a great organizer with a great vision” — is McCain’s new campaign director.

In addition to blasting the Bush/Cheney White House on climate change, as I mentioned on Saturday, for being “bogus,” the former action superstar allowed as how he would be open to a post in an Obama administration.

“I’m always ready to help in any way I can, the United States,” Schwarzenegger said. “I’ve committed myself to be a public servant. I said to myself, ‘This country has given me everything. It’s my time, now. I’m through with the acting and all of those things that I’ve done, body building.” (Eh, NWN is not so sure he is through with movies … )

With regard to energy policy, Schwarzenegger pooh-poohed offshore oil drilling as any solution to the gasoline price crisis. Instead, he emphasized consistency of purpose.

“The problem in America is not that we don’t have ideas. It’s that we aren’t consistent. Jimmy Carter in the late ’70s came in with a great energy policy. He talked about solar energy you know, conservation, tax credits for people investing in windmills, and all those things. And then President Reagan came in and scrapped the whole thing because oil prices came down and he said it didn’t make sense financially. Well, many countries all over the world stayed with the program even though oil prices came down. In Germany, with solar, they’ve been working on it for 30 years and they are number one in solar. I think that is what we need to do. We need to stay the course. We got to go and say: “Here’s the plan. Here’s how we get energy independent. We need renewables, we need nuclear power, we need alternative fuels. All of those kind of things. Let’s do research. Let’s never go off course, no matter who the administration is or no matter what the oil prices. Let’s stay on course. That’s the big problem in America.”

Stephanopoulos cited a report, supposedly in Newsweek though I don’t see it there but have heard it from Obama campaign sources, that Obama would like Schwarzenegger to be his energy and environment czar.

When he asked Schwarzenegger if he would take Obama’s call on such a prospect, Schwarzenegger said: “I take his call now, and I will take his call when he’s president — any time. Remember, no matter who is president, I don’t see this as a political thing, I see this as we always have to help, no matter what the administration is.”

** WHITE HOUSE PUNTS IRAQ FUTURE TO NEXT ADMINISTRATION AS STATUS OF FORCES AGREEMENT FAILS. President Bush’s attempt to negotiate a long-term status of forces agreement with our man in Iraq, Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, seems to have ended in failure. The Iraqi prime minister stated on Monday that the US needs to set a timetable for withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. The White House described Maliki’s statement as “a transcription error.” Maliki then had his national security advisor underscore his government’s position on Tuesday. Maliki then himself reiterated it on Wednesday. Now the White House is acknowledging its failure to reach a longterm status of forces agreement with regard to its July 31st deadline. The agreement would have to be formally adopted by the slow-moving and balky Iraqi parliament before the end of the year. For that is when the UN Security Council mandate for the US presence in Iraq runs out. Now the Bush/Cheney team must try for an interim agreement with the Iraqi government, which is responding to widespread Iraqi sentiment against a longterm American presence.

** BRITS OUT OF IRAQ BY MID-2009. From the London Sunday Times.

** AN OBAMA ROSETTA STONE. Welcome to Chicago.

** SUNDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in California, for a speech to the National Council of La Raza convention in San Diego and a fundraiser in Newport Beach.

John McCain appears at his campaign office in Phoenix, Arizona.

Both Obama and McCain have appeared at two other big Latino conventions in recent weeks and are making a big push for the Latino vote. McCain went up with a Spanish-captioned TV ad in Mountain West states this weekend, and his campaign will hold a Sunday conference call to respond to the Obama speech. McCain addresses the La Raza conference in San Diego on Monday. I’ll get into McCain’s battle with Obama for the Latino vote in a forthcoming column.

** TONY SNOW PASSES. Former White House press secretary and Fox News broadcaster Tony Snow passed away Saturday from cancer. He was 53. Snow, who served as speechwriter for the first President Bush before his gig as press secretary for the current President Bush, was a longtime conservative opinion journalist, having also been editorial page editor for the Washington Times. I was interviewed by him, and found him to be smart, amusing, and well-spoken. He was a gentlemanly fellow, and he will be missed.

** SATURDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Chicago and San Diego, where he will do private fundraising.

John McCain is in Sedona, Arizona, off the trail.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears Sunday on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos. The interview was recorded on Friday. In it, Schwarzenegger said he was not surprised — after all the delays at the federal level and the intricate moves undertaken to delay if not ultimately block California’s landmark climate change program — that the Bush Administration will take no action to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the remaining months of its existence.

Anything Bush would have done at this point, says Schwarzenegger, would have been “bogus.” Both John McCain and Barack Obama have declared that they will approve California’s climate change program.

“This administration did not believe that greenhouse gases are a pollutant,” notes Schwarzenegger. “They fought this in court and then finally the Supreme Court had to tell them, “Yes, it is a pollutant.”

President Bush, incidentally, will be in California next Thursday to survey fire damage.

Stephanopoulos also asked Schwarzenegger, whose backing for McCain was key in McCain knocking Mitt Romney out of the race in the California primary, if his policy positions are not actually more in line with those of Obama than McCain. We’ll see how he answered that tomorrow.

Schwarzenegger’s then new communications director, Adam Mendelsohn, called and told me I had it wrong, that Schmidt was a reasonable and moderate pragmatist, as well as one of his best friends.

Early in our first meeting, I wasn’t so sure about that.

YouTube Direktvideo link

The trailer for the first Batman picture, from 1989.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record, crude oil closed on Friday just below a record close at $145.08 per barrel. The big run-up in recent days is mostly due to the saber rattling by and against Iran. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Quotable, And More

Bill Bradley — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:30:21 +0000

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John McCain tosses his old friend and top economic advisor Phil Gramm under the bus.

** SITE SLOWDOWN. NWN slowed to a crawl and was for a time offline late Friday afternoon, preventing new items and posts in the Forum.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is committing an additional 2000 National Guard troops to fight the wild fires which have burgeoned around the state. At his event in LA this morning, he noted that the state has already experienced a record number of summer fires. … So far, no sign of a rush to embrace the $9.3 billion water bond proposal which he offered with US Senator Dianne Feinstein. Many on the left dislike it because it would build a few dams. Some on the far right dislike it because it would spend money. … No surprise amongst the Schwarzenegger crew that the Bush/Cheney White House intends to ride out its remaining months in office with yet another search for information on climate change. The analysis/paralysis is entirely intentional.

** OBAMA LEADS WISCONSIN. Wisconsin is one of the swing states in the Upper Midwest. In this new poll, Barack Obama has a 13-point lead over John McCain, 50% to 39%. Obama is doing better than Democrats normally do in states that border on Illinois — which he of course represents in the US Senate — such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota.

THE MORNING COLUMN: QUOTABLE.

Crude oil has shot back up to a record $147 a barrel. The mortgage industry is in meltdown. The stock market is plummeting. Food prices are rising. Employment is flat. Geopolitics is in turmoil. And we’re still talking about quotes. This time, the quotes have a bit more to do with the rest of this paragraph.

After a primary season marked by infamous quotes that worked against Barack Obama — all the Wright Stuff (”God damn America!”) and the candidate’s own Bittergate remarks — it seems Obama is at last getting a break in the other direction.

First Jesse Jackson with his notorious remarks whispered around a microphone he seems not to have known was on. A big plus for Obama, being attacked by the Rev. Jetstream for not hewing to the old-time party line that the government is responsible for all problems suffered by black people. If we haven’t learned by now that government can’t solve a ton of problems — and is not responsible for a ton of problems — it’s because we’re impervious to fact. Mostly a gotcha, which works for Obama but not Jackson — I can only imagine the discussions at Fox News — and has a tangential relationship to central issues.

Then, of course, Phil Gramm’s now notorious remarks to the Washington Times editorial board, thoughtfully captured on video — as you see below — and thus fodder for future Democratic National Committee attack ads on John McCain.

McCain’s national co-chairman and senior economic advisor, Texas senator turned Swiss banker Phil Gramm, told the right-wing Washington Times editorial board that “You’ve heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession.” Gramm, a major figure in the subprime mortgage crisis, pushing against regulation of the mortgage industry, also worked with wife Wendy Gramm, a former federal regulator, to allow more speculation in oil markets.

“We have sort of become a nation of whiners,” Gramm said. “We’ve never been more dominant; we’ve never had more natural advantages than we have today.”

America is still a great country. But that is an obviously preposterous assessment. Not to mention insulting to the voters of America.

Needless to say, McCain has had to repudiate Gramm for his comments, saying he would make him ambassador to Belarus. A nice quip, but it won’t help much, for Gramm’s self-unmasking comes at an especially bad time for McCain as he is touring the country attempting to speak to massive popular economic concern.

Gramm is an older friend of McCain’s than Wright is of Obama’s. Gramm is — or, more accurately now — was a national chairman of McCain’s campaign, viewed widely as his premier economic advisor, quite likely his secretary of the treasury should he win the presidency.

Indeed, Gramm was representing McCain yesterday in a discussion of economic policy with the Wall Street Journal editorial board when the firestorm of controversy erupted.

McCain actually backed Phil Gramm for president when he ran a heavily-funded but dismal race in 1996.

You should expect to hear a whole lot more about these things as the campaign goes on.

Schwarzenegger’s then new communications director, Adam Mendelsohn, called and told me I had it wrong, that Schmidt was a reasonable and moderate pragmatist, as well as one of his best friends.

Early in our first meeting, I wasn’t so sure about that.

YouTube Direktvideo link

Phil Gramm does his notorious “nation of whiners” interview with the Washington Times.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Dayton, Ohio. Obama will talk about energy and the economy. Then he will do private fundraising in Chicago.

John McCain is in Hudson, Wisconsin. McCain will try to get off Phil Gramm’s notorious comments and focus on women and their economic concerns.

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds an event at Hollywood’s Kodak Theater this morning with the California Health and Human Services Agency and the Entertainment Industry Foundation to announce an agreement with movie studios on smoking. Future DVDs will include anti-smoking messages in order to blunt whatever smoking may or may not be done by thc characters. Maybe Schwarzenegger, a famed cigar man, should have held this one at his Smoking Tent …

The event will be webcast live at 11 AM on www.gov.ca.gov.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record, crude oil is trading in the $146 to $147 per barrel range. The $10 per barrel run-up in the last two days is mostly due to the saber rattling by and against Iran.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

A Real Crisis, And More

Bill Bradley — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:45:26 +0000

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Another Iranian crisis might be gathering, but this whispered comment by Jesse Jackson, helpfully presented by Fox News personality Bill O’Reilly, is getting all the attention.

** QUICK HITS. Crude oil hit a new record again today, some $147 per barrel. The price has shot up over the past 36 hours due to the seeming Iranian crisis. I say seeming because I think there is far less substance to the rumors of war than there is shadow. If the KGB still existed, I might suspect their hand as part of a plan to drive up the price, which benefits Russia enormously, and foster weapons sales, which also has the same effect. … With California in the midst of drought and with much of it aflame, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Senator Dianne Feinstein came out today for a $9.3 billion water bond package. But the same impeding dynamic exists today as was the case last year when they collaborated on a bipartisan plan. Conservation vs. storage. Republicans not so keen on the former; Democrats not so keen on the latter.

** NEW NATIONAL POLL, OBAMA BY EIGHT. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the new Pew Research Poll, 48% to 40%. Obama voters are much more enthusiastic than McCain voters. Both candidates have party unity problems. Independent voters are up from 2004. Obama leads on likability, 45% to 34%, and as a candidate of new ideas, 58% to 24%.

** NORTH DAKOTA: OBAMA AND MCCAIN TIED IN RASMUSSEN POLL. The new poll by Republican Scott Rasmussen’s robopoll operation shows a dead heat there: Obama 43%, McCain 43%. This is one of the reddest of red states. Republicans have carried North Dakota all but one time since 1936 and George W. Bush won there both times by nearly 30 points. The Mountain West is proving to be a real target of opportunity for the tyro black senator from Illinois. And the West Coast is now firmly Obama, despite earlier McCain hopes in California, Oregon, and Washington, with California clearly Obama Country in a very big way.

** MACWORLD: MURPHY REGROUPS IN SACRAMENTO AFTER FALLING SHORT IN SCHMIDT’S INTERESTING FIRST WEEK. It’s less than a week since former Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign manager Steve Schmidt became John McCain’s new campaign director. Former Mac chief strategist Mike Murphy, also a former Arnold chief strategist, put on a grand movida through the media to try to come back into the central position in MacWorld. And came up short. So yesterday, he was in Sacramento with his partner, former Schwarzenegger communications director Rob Stutzman, trying to reinvigorate their influence operation. All part of an interesting first week for Schmidt at the helm of the McCain campaign. More to follow …

** MAC FORCED TO REPUDIATE GRAMM FOR “NATION OF WHINERS.” John McCain’s national co-chairman and senior economic advisor, Texas senator turned Swiss banker Phil Gramm, told the Washington Times that “You’ve heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession.” Gramm, a major figure in the subprime mortgage crisis, also worked with wife Wendy Gramm to allow more speculation in oil markets.

“We have sort of become a nation of whiners,” Gramm said. “We’ve never been more dominant; we’ve never had more natural advantages than we have today.”

Hardly.

Needless to say, McCain has had to repudiate Gramm for his comments, which come at an especially bad time as he is touring the country attempting to speak to massive popular economic concern.

Isn’t former Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign manager Steve Schmidt having an interesting first week as McCain’s new campaign director? More on that later.

THE MORNING COLUMN: A REAL CRISIS.

Iran keeps firing off missiles in the Gulf, there’s talk of war on all sides, but it gets a tiny fraction of the attention paid to Jesse Jackson’s whispered comment before appearing on a Fox News show over the weekend.

What did the Reverend Jetstream, a veteran political prima donna, say? Well, it’s nasty, you know, something along the lines that Barack Obama “has been talking down to black people,” so Jackson wants to tear his n**ts off. Or something like that. Jackson said this into a microphone he thought was turned off, prior to going on a show. Did he forget about the big gotcha moment on Ronald Reagan? When his joking around before an appearance led to the revelation he had mock declared “the Soviet Union abolished forever,” and that bombing would commence in five minutes. Cold War humor. You had to be there.

Anyway, Jackson’s beef with Obama is a big boost for … Obama. Because what he’s complaining about is that the younger man wants black people to take more individual responsibility for their actions, and not simply blame the past and society for their ills. Jackson, who had previously complained that Obama isn’t “black enough” and has not infrequently seemed resentful of the younger man’s success, takes the more paternalistic view, that government should supply the answers. Thus neatly supplying Obama with his own Sister Souljah moment, without Obama having to concoct it on his own. (Sister Souljah was a thoroughly obscure rapper who Bill Clinton castigated in his 1992 campaign for inciting violence, thus symbolically showing that he wouldn’t simply kow-tow to the far left in his party.)

Well, enough of that. You can catch it endlessly elsewhere.

While folks obsess about that, Iran is firing off more missiles in the Gulf. And holding naval exercises in which its ships launch torpedoes, and so forth. Which Iran does on a regular basis. There are only two things different about it this year. One of the missiles it’s launching has a range of 1250 miles, in theory placing US military bases in the region and Israel itself within a new line of fire. And all this comes in the wake of last month’s purported Israeli dress rehearsal for a strike on nuclear development facilities inside Iran. And renewed saber rattling from the Bush/Cheney Administration.

I’m told by informed sources that the new Iranian missile does have the claimed range. But that it’s accuracy and ability to deliver a payload has not been tested. So the Iranians don’t really know if they can successfully hit Israeli targets or not.

But the Israelis don’t know for sure that the Iranians can’t. The Israelis and our forces in the region do know that Iran has new anti-aircraft systems from Russia on the way. And that these systems could confound Israeli air strikes against Iran. I’ve written about these Russian anti-air systems before, the sale of which came last year when Vladimir Putin visited Tehran and declared that Russia would not allow Iran to be attacked. But I don’t know when they’re being delivered to the Iranians. Or if they have already been delivered.

So the Iranians have a new missile system which might — or might not — be effective against our forces in the region and Israel. They can’t be sure that this deterrent works. Though they can be sure that other actions they would take in retaliation would be disruptive. And that the big run-up in crude oil prices — which, by the way, has enabled Iran to sneer at existing sanctions against it — would explode into a full-on rout.

Israel can’t be sure that its major cities will not be hit if it launches air strikes against Iran. It also can’t be sure, thanks to the Russian factor, how effective those air strikes would be.

And as for our forces? Well, we’re bluffing. This White House likes to do a lot of saber rattling. But President Bush has very little credibility in America. Vice President Cheney has far less. And the Pentagon, by all indications, doesn’t want another war. We’re trying to win the two wars we’ve got going, and struggling to do it.

Count this situation as a three-sided bluff. To what end? I’ll get into that another time. Oh, and the presidential candidates? Both posturing, vis a vis their respective positioning. Their differences are great in tone, not much in substance.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in New York City and Fairfax, Virginia. Obama had his third Manhattan fundraiser with Hillary Clinton in 16 hours, this one a Women for Obama breakfast. I bet he remembered this time to ask people to help retire Hillary’s debt. He actually had to retake the stage last night to perform that little chore. Whoops! Don’t get cocky.

John McCain is in Belleville, Michigan and Minneapolis, Minnesota, continuing his “Jobs First” tour.

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING ON THE CALIFORNIA FIRE SITUATION. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger tours the fire scene rural Northern California near Mount Shasta, then holds a live briefing on the situation there and around the state. Hundreds of wildfires continue to burn as the Golden State swelters in a massive heat wave and drought.

The event will be webcast live at 10 AM on www.gov.ca.gov.

** MAC AND MURPH. A not inconsiderable amount of drama around Team McCain, with much of it around consultant and former McCain chief strategist Mike Murphy, familiar to Californians from his successful and then very unsuccessful tenure with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Bill Kristol says he’s coming back to save the day. Not so much. From my other blog.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading in the $137 to $138 per barrel range.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Flips And Slides, And More

Bill Bradley — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:00:15 +0000

YouTube Direktvideo link

Iran test fired nine new missiles, including the Shahab-3, whose 1250-mile range places Israel and US military bases at risk.

** THE IRANIAN SITUATION. BLUFF? OR WAR? I am guessing … bluff. On all sides. I’ll explain tomorrow.

** MAVIGLIO MAKES A MOVE. Veteran Democratic strategist Steve Maviglio, a top strategist and spokesman for former California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and deputy chief of staff for new Speaker Karen Bass, is now campaign manager for Kevin Johnson’s bid for Sacramento mayor. Maviglio, former press secretary for Governor Gray Davis and a top operative for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, will remain half-time with Speaker Bass through the conclusion of the state’s budget process. Then he will go full-time with Johnson, the former NBA All-Star and entrepreneur who barely missed the necessary majority win in the June primary, besting Mayor Heather Fargo then, 47% to 40%. The run-off election is in November.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE: “EVERYTHING IS ON THE TABLE.” Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at his Sacramento railyards event this morning had some interesting things to say. First, he enthusiastically backed the high-speed rail bonds initiative on the November ballot, saying: “It is ridiculous that we have the same speed trains today as we had 100 years ago.” Schwarzenegger has delayed the high-speed rail measure until now as he dealt with making the state’s 2003 deficit bonds constitutional and promoted immediate pressing needs in the form of massive education and infrastructure bonds packages. The state’s debt load, he felt, had to be managed. Now he is pushing the high-speed rail project which in the end may be highly necessary for California as fossil fuel costs decimate the airline industry.

Next, he addressed legislative Democrats’ call for tax increases and restoration of old rates as part of the solution to the state’s chronic and now massive budget deficit by saying: “Everything is on the table.” He noted that he is against tax increases, but in order to achieve the necessary compromise, he has “an open mind.”

The Legislature’s budget conference committee, dominated by Democrats but including Republicans — at least some of whose votes will be needed under California’s unusual two-thirds vote requirement on such fiscal matters — last night and this morning recommended some $9.7 billion in new revenue to close the $15.2 billion deficit. (Which is $17.2 billion when including the normal budgetary reserve.) Included in this proposal is a reinstatement of the highest tax brackets for high-income Californians, closing of the net operating loss provision used by large corporations to carry forward deductions into future years, suspension of indexing for upper-income Californians, and restoration of the franchise tax, and thus the corporate tax rate that existed until 1997.

** THE MORNING COLUMN: FLIPS AND SLIDES. Is Barack Obama a flip-flopper? Is John McCain a flip-flopper? I can make a case that either one is a flip-flopper. (I can make more than a few cases.) The case is easier with McCain. I’d describe Obama as more of a slider.

But you know what? I think that’s mainly a waste of time, though they love it on cable.

Rather than obsess over how much somebody’s ideas have changed, or not, focus on what those ideas are.

Iran has just staged a big missile test launch. (See video above.) Is this a reaction to Israel’s purported dress rehearsal last month of a strike against Iran’s nuclear development facilities? Is it a dramatic ramping up of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities? Is this something Iran does every year around this time, albeit with a supposedly more powerful missile?

Iraq’s government says — despite an earlier claim from the White House that the Iraqi prime minister suffered from “a transcription error” — that it wants a timetable for US troop withdrawal before agreeing to a new status of forces agreement. The current UN authorization runs out at the end of the year. Is this posturing in advance of elections in a country in which the US troop presence is extremely controversial? Is this a blow to the evident US policy to maintain permanent bases in Iraq? Is this a game changer in the presidential debate, in that the Iraqi government has essentially adopted the Obama position and McCain previously said that if it wants the US to withdraw, we must?

Afghanistan is seeing heightened activity by the Taliban. The Indian embassy was just bombed in Kabul. Do we have the troops necessary to quell this renewed threat? If not, why not? And how do we get them?

Pakistan is highly problematic. Al Qaeda Prime has reconstituted itself there, in safe havens right under the noses of the regime propped up by the Bush Administration. Osama bin Laden is still free. How do we eradicate Al Qaeda cadre without destabilizing the only Islamic nation with nuclear weapons? Is Al Qaeda still a real threat? Or has it always been something of a paper tiger, albeit one that pulled off a few spectacular attacks?

We have an energy crisis. We have an economic crisis. We have a climate crisis.

You see where this is going. I don’t want to dwell on what somebody’s idea used to be. I want to dwell on what somebody’s idea is, and why.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Washington, DC, where he will vote for the compromise FISA bill and New York City, where he will attend private fundraisers with Hillary Clinton.

John McCain is in Portsmouth, Ohio and Romulus, Michigan, continuing his economic tour.

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING ON INFRASTRUCTURE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a press conference this morning at the Sacramento railyards to discuss the impact of affordable housing and infrastructure funding authorized by the Big Bang Bonds infrastructure package he championed in 2006. The event will be at 10:30 AM and will be webcast live on www.gov.ca.gov.

** SILVER STATE TURNING BLUE. Nevada, which President Bush very narrowly won in 2004 over John Kerry, whose campaign did not particularly emphasize the Silver State, is turning blue. New voter registration numbers out of Las Vegas indicate that Democrats have executed a 6-point voter registration turnaround since the Bush re-election. Nevada is one of several Mountain West states the Democrats are going after aggressively, along with Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana.

** MAC AND MURPH. A not inconsiderable amount of drama around Team McCain, with much of it around consultant Mike Murphy, familiar to Californians from his successful and then very unsuccessful tenure with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Bill Kristol says he’s coming back to save the day. Not so much. From my other blog.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading in the $137 to $138 per barrel range.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.