Bill's Poker Blog

Online Poker Industry Report July 23, 2008

2008-07-23T14:02:12-05:00

Sorry for the late post this week. My hard drive fried and I lost an entire day getting that replaced.

The online poker industry had a slow but positive week.

Everest must be doing something screwy (I’ll have to do more investigation on that) as their numbers have been whipsawing all over the place. They’ve been posting numbers like -7%, +20%, -17%, and this week +23%. Either they’ve got something happening in a key territory for them or their players are addicted to bonus offers.

UB gave up almost exactly what they gained the previous week so perhaps they weren’t bucking the trend as effectively as I thought.

Most of the rooms did well (combatively) on their big guarantees Sunday. Full Tilt did their monthly bumping the $750K to $1 million which they covered. Party narrowed their overlay on the $300K and Stars hit $1.7 million on their $1 million guarantee.

Becoming a Winning Poker Player

2008-07-16T06:18:44-05:00

Yesterday I talked about the importance of not spewing chips and today I wanted to explore the opposite side of that equation in terms of how to make your opponents put more chips into the pot when they’re behind.

It’s the hallmark of winning players at the higher levels that they know how to eek out 1 or 2 BB more out of a pot than their opponents and how to avoid putting in more chips when they’re behind. When I watch great limit hold’em players that is truly the skill they employ most effectively.

For instance, the raising for a free card is a move every solid hold’em player had better master otherwise they cannot beat the game at mid and high limits. If you’re unfamiliar with how that works, let me explain.

You’re in position against an opponent on the flop where you’ve picked up a straight draw. You’re pretty sure that your opponent caught a piece of the flop because he’s bet into you. Many low stakes players call here and hope to hit their hand on the turn. Their belief is that they’re saving money. They’re wrong.

What if instead you popped your opponent for a raise? Chances are that unless he recognizes what you’re doing (and maybe even if he does) he’s going to think you may have picked up a hand too and notch down his aggression. He’ll check to the raiser (you) on the turn no matter what card comes off (barring him making trips or two pair). If the turn hits you then you can seize the initiative and bet and if you miss you get a free card and check behind hoping the river makes your hand.

Now, let’s do the math:

Calling:

Call on the flop = .5BB
Call on the turn = 1 BB

Raising

Raise on the flop = 1BB

Obviously raising costs you less if you miss the turn. Plus there’s the fact that if you do hit on the turn and your opponent can read your hand then you’ve collected the maximum amount you could get out of him.

Now extrapolate that out over tens of thousands of hands and you can see how this one little move of saving a half BB can literally save hundreds of BB per year. And you get the added benefit of seeing the river for free which may not have been possible on some drawing hands given the pot odds of calling a turn bet and your odds of making your hand. So not only is it saving you money but it’s setting you up to take down more pots.

But being a winning player is more than just saving BB’s, it’s also about winning extra BB’s. Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to cover every possible scenario and most things like the raising for the free card illustrated above are in most every poker text book so I don’t think there’s a need to repeat them hear. The important part is to work out what it means in terms of value and understand that it’s the small things like being able to squeeze an extra big bet out of every few pots that can make the difference between a winning and losing player.

Go back and read your Small Stakes Hold’em (Ed Miller) or similar books and really spend some time getting to understand how these plays impact your overall win rate. As I’ve said previously the biggest secret there is to being a winning poker player is that there is no secret. Everything you need to know is in your basic strategy books. The difference is the winning players master the material while losing players search for the elusive secret that will magically make their pocket aces hold up.

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Online Poker Industry Report July 15, 2008

2008-07-15T12:13:40-05:00

After a nice little bounce last week the overall market market slid 4.11% WOW. I can’t say I was too surprised with that as I thought last week’s numbers were a little high. Not much in the way of sporting events to take the European customers offline but beautiful weather throughout Europe probably didn’t help out the online poker rooms.

Despite or maybe because of Stars’ 2x promotion the cash game numbers were off 8.92% this week. It should be noted that not only did they over their $1 million guaranteed doubled to $2 million but attracted 14,181 at $215 a pop to clear the guarantee more than comfortably. Additionally, their $100,000 doubled to $200,000 maxed out at 25,000 players for a $250,000 prize pool.

As you watch the market on WOW basis it’s interesting to note rooms that have a tendency to post positive numbers one week and then negative numbers to following week. Unfortunately for some the negative week is always greater than the positive week which seems to indicate a reload or some other type of bonus finishing up and players abandoning the site. Bodog seems to be on the track.

To my amazement not only does bad news not seem to phase Ultimate Bet but it continues to post good numbers. UB has gained a spot on Svenska Spel which leaves Svenska tied with Absolute.

It should be interesting to see how this dispute between PokerNews and Ultimate Bet plays out as PokerNews is one of the larger affiliates in the industry. I’m not sure how much traffic they were sending to UB but it certainly can’t be a good thing to have someone as big as PokerNews pulling the plug on you.

No big wow promotions were announced this week.

Unfortunately, I don’t have all of the large tourney stats this week as but the few I do have seem to show a healthy weekend. Most sites that were offering overlays narrowed their losses this week.

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More About Why PokerNews is Mad

2008-07-15T11:11:14-05:00

This comes from the Poker Network site where rmh123 has the following to say:

The facts!

I have just spoken to Tony G who is currently in Russia and not happy! Tony told me that he paid entries for 35 people into the main event, with the aim of helping some people, but also to gain maimum exposure for Pokernews. Tiffany approached Jeff Lissandro at a pre-ME party about playing. It was agreed that as Pokernews paid her salary they would also pay her entry fee, and in return she would receive 33% of prizemoney, and also conduct as many interviews as possible with fellow players during the event.

She signed a contract outlining these conditions, so Tony is obviously upset to see her covered in UB gear without as much as a phone call to ask if that was ok. How this all came about he does not know, but I’m sure he will get to the bottom of it, as he feels betrayed at this time. He pointed out to me that he staked players such as Marcel Luske and Kirril Gerasimov and they would NEVER do this without contacting him beforehand.

It also makes UB look bad I think, and as Tony said he could have got her a much better deal with Pokerstars if she had continued to do well.

I have known Tony for a long time and he is a ruthless businessman, but also has a big heart and at this time feels he has been badly let down. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 2 days.

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Tiffany Michelle Interview

2008-07-15T09:46:21-05:00

Looks like Tiffany had her sights set on a massively huge career after she gave PokerNews the brush off. Here she is in a PokerNews interview telling her employer “Sorry PokerNews” after pondering the final table, the deals, and other things coming her way.

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PokerNews Gets Their Panties All in a Bunch

2008-07-15T09:00:21-05:00

The other day I posted about how the WSOP is beginning to bore me and today I would like to take a look at something I consider to be a black mark on the both the industry and the event.

PokerNews is considering legal action against Tiffany Michelle because her agent found a loophole in her contract with PokerNews and she decided to sport Ultimate Bet gear while slugging it out to her 17th place finish in the WSOP Main Event. What people may or may not know is that this is so commonplace it’s not funny. Many of the players you see sporting Full Tilt, Poker Stars, Ultimate Bet, and other poker room logos did not qualify on those sites nor have some of them ever played on those sites.

When someone makes a featured table the reps from those room swarm all over the players with big wads of cash and pay them off for wearing their gear. Prices can be up to $20K for a featured table late in the event and by the time things are down to the final table or two the big stacks can sign deals for $50K to $100K depending on how far they’re expected to go.

Every year there are tales of one sponsor or another getting the shaft from the player who goes deep and then decides to forget how they got there. Jamie Gold’s infamous dispute with his sponsors is a perfect example of someone with selective memory. But it happens with many lesser known players and seldom do these disputes ever get much publicity.

It’s like a scene out of Jerry McGuire with Bob Sugar and the Cushman’s. A sponsor or a poker room qualifies or buys the player into the event, gives them gear, have a host taking care of them during the event, and then one day the player shows up sporting gear from some other sponsor. No discussions. No chance for counter-offers. Just some shady backroom deal to whoever flashed the most cash.

I don’t blame the players who take the deals other than to say that many of them do it on the sly and don’t even have the cahones to tell their original sponsor they got a better deal. They simply show up wearing gear from another sponsor. That’s just a poor way to do business and really ends up doing the player’s reputation as an honest business partner great harm. But then again, I guess some people could care less about their reputation.

I also can’t blame the online poker rooms or the other sponsors for trying to slap their logo on such a highly televised event. The lack of rules encourages it and any smart marketer is going to shoot whatever angle he can.

In general though this is something that Harrah’s needs to get a handle on. People are showing up at featured tables looking like a NASCAR driver. They’re wearing three, four, five different ads on their clothing and most of them are slap on patches that simply look ridiculous.

At the moment PokerNews is saying that they bought her way into the Main Event as well as several other events and had a contract with her. They think that her agent was able to find a loophole that allowed her to give PokerNews the legal middle finger and they’re rightfully pissed on a personal level. From a legal perspective they may be screwed though as even they are acknowledging that a loophole may have existed. While I would usually be saying bravo to her agent for being so creative I can’t quite bring myself to applaud someone who negotiates in the shadows under so much bad will.

Now all that being said, I do have to take PokerNews to task for their statement in which they say:

In regard to the Ultimate Bet and PokerNews relationship, Ultimate Bet has come under considerable scrutiny from the Poker Community for several scandals involving high-ranking employees and the use of defective software that allowed these users to see their opponent’s hole cards. As a result of such breaches in the online communities trust, PokerNews has decided that it will no longer promote this site within its network.

I’m sorry guys; I’m not buying it. PokerNews had plenty of opportunities to pull their support for UB but until this event they didn’t exercise that option. I have a hard time believing that their decision to pull support for UB has anything to do with the cheating scandals and has everything to do with feeling like they got knifed in the back by a business partner.

Listen, I feel like PokerNews got the shaft in their deal with Tiffany and that is reason enough for them to pull the UB promotions from their site but to try to take the high ground and claim that it was a result of the cheating scandal is highly questionable. Why now? Why include this vow in a official release about the situation with Tiffany Michelle?

Like I said, this particular incident, the whole buying and selling of players at the event in general, and PokerNews’ questionably timed decision to finally do the ethical thing all are black marks on the WSOP and online poker as an industry and the people who organize these events should take action before the WSOP becomes better known as the World Sponsorship of Poker.

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How Small Poker Mistakes Add Up to Big Losses

2008-07-15T06:17:38-05:00

One of the things that prevents many people from moving up limits in poker is a failure to realize how costly seemingly small mistakes are. I thought I would try to demonstrate what a bankroll killer small mistakes can be via a few examples.

Let’s jump right in and start laying out some constants in our examination of this topic. Let’s assume that being a successful player is defined as being able to win 2BB/100 in limit hold’em. Let’s also assume that during 100 hands you’ll see the big and small blinds 10 times. So 10 x .5BB and 10 x .25BB means that you’re in the hole for 7.5BB even if you don’t play a hand. And if you want to beat the game for 2BB/100 then you’ll need to win 9.5BB/100 (excluding rake). So you’re going to need to make about 1BB every 10.5 hands.

But let’s now look at the characteristics of a solid winning player. A winning player is only going to play 15% - 20% of their starting hands. So, out of 100 hands you’re only going to only be playing 20 (let’s err on the high side just to keep things conservative as many might feel 15% VP$IP too low). So in 20 hands you need to make 9.5BB.

Now let’s look at how little mistakes turn into major leaks. Let’s say you make a bad pre-flop call. That’s .5BB. You catch a piece on the flop but you’ve got a weak hand. You opponent bets and you call hoping your middle pair is good. That’s another .5BB. Turn is a blank and likely didn’t hit your opponent so you call off one more when he bets. There’s a full BB. River is another blank that likely didn’t hit your opponent and even though you don’t want to, you make another call on the river hoping that your middle pair holds up. Throw another BB in.

So here you are, 3BB in the hole that started with one bad decision to make a loose pre-flop call. Instead of needing to make 9.5BB you now need to make 12.5BB.

Every poor pre-flop decision, every loose call decision, every mistake ups the amount of BB you have to win back later.

Another massive leak I see players make is to get suckered into putting more money into the pot because of a raise. Take the same scenario above and you’ve caught middle pair. You decide you want to try to take the pot down so when your opponent checks you bet and he raises. What do most people do here? They call. Why? Without a flush or straight draw what could you possibly be hoping the next card could be? You’re drawing to trips or two pair which gives you 5 outs. You would need to be getting 8.4:1 on your money to make the call. There are only 2.5BB in the pot which means you’re only getting 5:1 on your money. And what happens when you miss on the turn? You’re calling again?

I think many beginning players would benefit from understanding the problem from this context. We are prone to teaching players what to do and what not to do but it would be helpful if they understood why. As Ed Miller is fond of saying (and which I’ll paraphrase here), it’s not the size of the mistake but how often you can make it. If you’re giving up .5BB here and .5BB there it’s going to add up over time and turn into a huge obstacle to you becoming a winning player.

The bottom line is that just winning 9.5BB/100 is a sizeable challenge. When you get yourself mixed up in hands you shouldn’t have or you make other mistakes you’re only making it harder on yourself. Each of those mistakes costs you a full or half BB and you have to make that up later. That’s why during most sessions your entire profit for the night might come down to only 4 or 5 pots. You fold, fold, fold all night long and flop that set and get a few chasers to go to the river with you paying off a nice fat pot. If you’ve been pissing away your chips on poor decisions those 4 or 5 pots aren’t going to cover all of your other losses and you’ll end the session in the red.

Ultimate Bet Scandal Continues

2008-07-14T05:35:34-05:00

Looks like Nat Arem and the 2+2 guys are rabidly following up leads which seem to indicate that Russ Hamilton was associated with several of the superuser accounts involved in the recent Ultimate Bet cheating scandal. There’s also some evidence that the cheating goes back earlier than what UB has admitted to so far.

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The World Series of Poker Bores Me

2008-07-12T17:44:34-05:00

I was reading this post from super poker affiliate Jeremy Enke about the fact that your average affiliate stands to gain more from his affiliate related activities than he does from playing poker. I’m not sure I completely agree with that but he said something that got my big old head nodding in agreement.

I think it’s probably because we’re right in the middle of the WSOP main event, and everybody is caught up in the thrill of poker and big cashes. This is the 6th year that I have really followed the WSOP, and unfortunately I have to tell you; every year the wsop and poker in general bores me more and more.

I find the excitement around the WSOP to be a complete fabrication. Either you’re in Vegas playing or why do you care?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of drama. I have a slight interest in whether or not Hellmuth wins another bracelet or if there’s an unbelievable hand but I really don’t care if some no-name guy finishes first in Event #23423 Deuce to 7 Triple Draw, One Eyed Jacks and Six of Clubs are Wild $11 Buy-in.

Simply put there are things which are exciting and things that aren’t. But the poker media invests so much time and money into the WSOP that they crank out article after article of results from events that have no drama or excitement. Think about it, a big poker news site probably sends three or four journalists to the event. Count up the cost of travel, room, food, expenses and other stuff and the poker site is making a sizeable investment. In return they expect lots of content. But what if there isn’t anything to write about?

It’s a thankless job to be sure and some are better than others at being able to add drama to what would otherwise be one of the most boring jobs around. Wicked Chops Poker deserves kudos for spinning an angle on everything from Vinny Vinh’s chair to mis-focused photos of the pros.

Whenever I talk with people in the poker press they always seem so bored out of their skulls after the first few days. They strain to find anything worth getting excited about.

Because, let’s face it, reading about poker tournaments is pretty boring stuff. That’s especially true since the journalists can’t see hole cards. There’s a reason poker on television didn’t take off until the hold card cam was invented; poker is boring to watch much less read about if you have no idea what any of the players have.

Yet you have dozens of journalists sent down to the WSOP and ordered to crank out 2 – 3 stories a day so they look for anything even remotely of interest and report on it as if they were breaking the Watergate scandal. ZOMG!!! Phil Ivey may or may not have made a $2 million bet on the Lakers in the NBA Finals?!?!

It may sound like I’m trashing the journalists but I’m not. I know they have a job to do and I also know that their employers expect to be getting a certain amount of content for their investment of a couple of grand a day (hotels, salaries, per diems, etc). All I’m saying is that there’s something broke in the system that Harrah’s or the poker press needs to fix.

At the moment I don’t have the answer on how to fix it but some smart people who have an actual financial interest in the solution should probably start putting their heads to the problem.

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Become the King of Bluff

2008-07-11T04:27:54-05:00

A funny poker related ad.