Bill's Poker Blog

Incredible Odds

2010-03-10T23:10:31-08:00

I had the pleasure of meeting a local musician here in Bangkok the other night. Actually I had seen him playing over at Moonshine’s once or twice but he stopped in to say hello to my friend Jack and we were introduced formally.

Tony is an older American guy. How old, I don’t know but he’s got a look that says he’s been around before. Nice guy though and always quick with a laugh.

Several months ago Jack told me an incredible story about Tony that I wanted to share. It was a few years ago and Tony was playing a gig in one of the local bars in Bangkok. During the set he noticed a young guy sitting in the audience wearing a US Army fatigue top with the same unit patch as his old unit in Vietnam.

Obviously the man was too young to have been a vet (at least a Vietnam Vet) but it intrigued him so when he finished his set he went over to the young man’s table and introduced himself saying that he had served in that unit during ‘Nam. As the man stretched out his arm to shake his he saw that the nametag on the top was the same as his last name, which he mentioned to the younger man.

The young man explained that he had purchased the fatigue top at a small market on some side street in Bangkok just that afternoon. He thought it looked cool and was able to bargain down the price to something fairly cheap so he bought it.

Tony said, “Well, can I ask you a small favor? Can you open up the jacket pocket and see if there’s anything sewn inside the pocket?” The younger man obliged and there was Tony’s name on another nametag sewn inside the pocket.

Tony had sold all of his gear to a military surplus shop when he finished his military duty after Vietnam and had been traveling around the world since. But somehow his fatigue jacket had followed him around the world and ended up in the same bar he was playing a gig in.

The reason I bring this up is so many people argue that online poker must be rigged because something with a low statistical probability occurs to them. Maybe they have been dealt aces three times in a row or whatever. To them that proves the game is rigged.

But anytime the probability of something is greater than 0, given enough trials, it is expected to happen.

If my math is correct, getting dealt pocket aces three times in a row should happen approx every 1 in 2,385,443 hands. That means that the chances of it happening are still greater than 0. And if you take a room like PokerStars and let’s say they deal a billion hands per year, it is not unusual for that to occur 419 times a year.

So, your opponent catching pocket aces three times in a row has a low probability but it’s expected to happen to 419 people per year (assuming 1 billion hands dealt). Does it prove anything about whether or not the game is rigged? No.

I mean, what are the odds that Sammy Farha with AT would flop AAT against Oliver Hudson with pocket tens in the very first hand in the WSOP main event at the featured table? I’m not even going to do the math but it’s not very likely.

But because it’s live people are willing to accept that it’s just poker. When it happens online many of those same people assume it’s because the game is rigged.

That’s one of the reasons when anybody says something like “You never see anything like that ever happen in a live game,” I immediately dismiss anything else they’ve said or are going to say. Because I can post YouTube videos all day long showing highly unlikely events occurring during televised programs.

And out of all of the hands played how many have been televised? A low percentage to be sure. So if you can see these low probability events occurring from a rather small sample size then people saying they’ve never seen it in a live card room either aren’t playing very many hands or their experience is the true statistical anomaly.

photocred to Steve Snodgrass

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

Are you following me on Twitter? Why not?

Incredible Odds

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Badugi Poker: Game History and How To Play

2010-03-03T19:07:51-08:00

This is now the third article in the series I’ve written on Lowball Poker games at Bill’s blog and will cover Badugi Poker. The post will take a look at Badugi poker history and provide a short how to play Badugi guide. If you want to check out the other two articles in my series then here are the links:

Introduction to Lowball Poker
Razz Poker and the World Greatest Gambler

I’m hoping everyone’s enjoyed what I’ve written so far and finds this article interesting as well.

Badugi Poker History Then and Now

Badugi is one of the newer games to hit the live and online poker scene. It is thought that the game was first invented in South Korea around the 1960’s but obviously it’s impossible to pin point it’s exact conception. Paul Eskimo Clark a poker player who served in the USA army during the Vietnam War is credited with bringing the game back to America and although he claims to have invented the game as well it’s pretty clear it was being played over in South Korea well before the war broke out.

When Badugi poker first hit the Las Vegas poker scene it was mainly played at the higher limits, it is traditionally considered to be a real gamblers game which at the time was really attractive to the high stakes players in Vegas. The truth of the matter is though that there is a lot of Skill involved in Badugi and like in any form of poker the better players end up with the money in the long run.

Today Badugi is played in various live mixed cash games and it was reported that at last years World Series of Poker Greg Raymer and Todd Brunson among others where playing $400/$800 Badugi in the side games. Badugi doesn’t yet have a dedicated WSOP tournament but there is plenty of action online at PokerStars who include it in their SCOOP and WCOOP poker tournament series.

How To Play Badugi Poker

It’s not actually that difficult to learn how to play Badugi, in fact if you’ve ever played 2-7 Triple Draw then you’ll probably get the hang of it pretty quickly. The first thing you need to know about Badugi is that it has its own unique hand rankings system. The system is a lowball hand rankings system in which an unsuited A-2-3-4 would be the holy nuts, you only get 4 cards when playing Badugi. Any hand that has 4 cards of different suits and numerical value is known as a Badugi and your aim is to make the lowest Badugi possible. Pairs and suited cards will count against you.

Any hand of Badugi poker starts with the posting of the blinds, the dealer then deals each player 4 cards. A betting round takes place which is followed by a drawing round. During the drawing round players can draw as many or as few cards as they wish, choosing not to draw is known as standing pat. There are a total of three drawing rounds when playing Badugi and once the final drawing round and final betting round has taken place the hand goes to a showdown, much like in any Triple Draw game. The winner is then determined and the pot is shipped in their direction.

The above is just about as much information as you need to play a hand of Badugi but if you’re interested in finding out more about the game then why don’t you check out one of my newest sites: Badugi Poker, it covers how to play the game, strategy, drawing odds and where to play online.

Next week I’ll close out the series with an article on 2-7 lowball poker games.

photocred to RodrigoFavera

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

Are you following me on Twitter? Why not?

Badugi Poker: Game History and How To Play

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The Week That Was – Goodbye February

2010-03-01T00:45:36-08:00

This week was an insanely busy week for me. On my ThailandFriends website we pushed a relaunch out the door which not only meant the normal rush to make the launch date, firefighting all the glitches that we didn’t discover in testing, and complaints from members – some of whom have been on the site for 5 or 6 years – about what they like and don’t like, but we had scheduled a relaunch party for Saturday. And not just a little thing but a massive party on the rooftop pool with DJ, food, booze, and even some *ahem* hired coyote dancers.

So not only am I running around worry about the website but I’ve got to go buy 10 cases of this and a case of whiskey and yadda, yadda, yadda.

Anyway, here are some pics from the party:

As you might be able to gather, our new slogan is “Are You On?” The t-shirts actually seem to be pretty popular. I had about 50 made to hand out at the party and such but I’ve worn mine several times before the event and I constantly have people asking “On what?” and then I show them the back with says ThailandFriends.com.

The event ended just as the last pool party we had at this venue, with most people getting wet whether they liked it or not. This was one particularly devious pool tossing.

Sorry for the quality. I’m no Spielberg. Plus we just had the ambient light to work with.

I had drinks Sunday night with a former Full Tilter in town for a short holiday. Just his luck he got in around 1am on Sat night which means he missed my party and Sunday was a Buddhist holiday which meant that no bars were allowed to open (restaurants could serve booze but unless you had a restaurant license you had to close) so he got a very limited view of what Bangkok nightlife is all about.

I was able to get around to actually posting something on this site though.

Low Ball Poker by Dave
A Taste of Thailand
Razz Poker and the Worlds Greatest Ever Gambler
The Sky is Falling for Affiliates

If you missed it, give the “The Sky is Falling for Affiliates” a read. It’s been retweeted a few times and I’ve received quite a bit of private emails from affiliate managers and affiliates making comments about what I’ve written. I would say that generally, many people, as much as they hate to, agree with the overall message. Nobody is happy about it but they realize that the poker affiliate model is changing.

Poker Job Search

I know this may seem like a bit of a joke after the affiliates post on this site but there is a Poker Affiliate Manager position being advertised out there. If you speak Dutch, someone is looking for a Dutch Affiliate Manager. Last but not least, someone is looking for an Online Community Manager to work out of Gibraltar.

And if you don’t have a rakeback account on Full Tilt Poker yet, you better get cracking. Check out Rakeback Report for information on getting 27% rakeback on Full Tilt before they cut the affiliate payouts.

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

Are you following me on Twitter? Why not?

The Week That Was – Goodbye February

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The Sky is Falling for Affiliates

2010-02-25T20:54:38-08:00

It was recently announced that Full Tilt Poker is placing a 3% cap on margins rakeback affiliates can offer. What that means is that Full Tilt was once telling affiliates that you can offer 27% max rakeback while Full Tilt pays the affiliate 35%. That means the rakeback affiliate makes 8%. In most cases, rakeback affiliates operate through a master rakeback affiliate who provides support, a software backend, etc so they might pay the sub-affiliate 3% and keep 5% for themselves.

If you do the math, if the max margin is 3% then that effectively brings the affiliate payment down to 30%. So super rakeback affiliates offering their sub rakeback affiliates 3% are now making a 0% margin.

Many rakeback affiliates are furious about this change with many threatening to boycott Full Tilt. And I’ve been contacted furiously all week with people wanting to know my thoughts as both a rakeback affiliate, a former employee of Tilt, and as an industry insider.

Well, you’re not going to like my response but I’ve been saying for years that the payouts to affiliates is not commensurate with the value they provide. I know my friend Jeremy Enke at Poker Affiliate Listings would likely punch me for saying that but I felt that way even before I got involved in the industry as anything more than a player.

That’s not true for every affiliate. I’ve said in the past that coaching sites, poker news sites (real news, not just lifting news from other poker news sites and rewriting it), and such do provide value. But most of them are already making a ton of money because they are valuable. It’s all the rest that I’m referring to when I say that they don’t provide sufficient value for what they’re paid.

Full Tilt has cemented itself as one of the top online poker sites on the internet. They spend millions of dollars every month promoting their brand on television, in print, and on the internet. Why should they then turn around and pay an affiliate to piggyback on what they’re already spending?

As I told someone today, on my rakeback site, without any additional promotion, Full Tilt constitutes a huge portion of my signups. That’s despite the fact that Full Tilt has one of the lowest rakeback payouts of any site.

I’m benefitting from the brand name recognition that Full Tilt has paid millions and millions of dollars to create.

Some have suggested that they’ll just start promoting other rooms. Great. But your conversion rates will likely drop as will your MGR per player. Some players are throwing out names like Cake as possible alternative sites to promote but that sound like a joke to me. Full Tilt’s 24 hour peak player numbers are around 26,000. Cake’s are 2600. As one person pointed out on the PAL site, that’s like comparing a Walmart to a 7-11. Or as someone else put it in the same thread, anyone who could possibly suggest that a rakeback player is going to play on Cake instead of Full Tilt so you can make more money has never been an actual serious poker player before.

Both PokerStars and FullTilt know that as the market consolidates that the value of affiliates becomes lower. They’re simply pricing what they’re willing to pay accordingly. As an affiliate you’re free to send your traffic elsewhere but if the players eventually end up on Stars and Tilt then you’re simply cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Some affiliates have even been saying things like “This is how Full Tilt repays its affiliates after making them the second largest poker site?” Uh, first off, did affiliates really make Full Tilt as successful as they are today or might it have been the millions they spent on AFP (advertising funded programming), commercials, sponsorship deals, and slapping their logo on players at nearly every televised poker tournament? Don’t get me wrong, affiliates have played a role but to claim Full Tilt would be some 30th place unknown poker room without affiliates is really an absurd claim.

Second, let’s not pretend that any affiliate is doing what they do for any sort of charitable reasons. Affiliates get paid to promote poker rooms. And even if affiliates had made Full Tilt the powerhouse it is today, they got compensated for it already. They have already been well compensated.

And let’s not pretend that affiliates are not business people. They make decisions about what rooms to promote based on conversion rates, payouts, and so on. So does Full Tilt. This isn’t about some misplaced trust or loyalty. If Full Tilt didn’t convert well or didn’t do a good job in retaining players affiliates would turn their back on Tilt. If you read some of the stuff some affiliates are writing one would think their girlfriend just cheated on them.

I know that a lot of what I’ve written isn’t specific to rakeback affiliates and the reason for that is that the issues surrounding market consolidation and customer acquisition costs isn’t limited to rakeback affiliates. The cold hard truth is that the cost of acquiring a player has been steadily increasing over the last several years.

The rising customer acquisition cost is why iPoker has made up their silly rules about winning vs. losing players. It’s the reason why the small sites keep getting smaller and the big ones keep getting bigger.

In other words, the business model has changed from “sign them up at any cost because we’re making money hand over fist” to “hey, we’re actually losing money on a lot of these players.” And if the underlying poker business model is changing so will the poker affiliate business model to reflect those changes.

When you look back at the history of the affiliate business it’s plain to see that these changes had to come about sooner or later. In the beginning it was a huge gold-rush. Poker rooms were so hungry to get players in the door that they paid through the nose to get them. Player values were sky high and just like back in the dotcom days the motto was “get big, fast.”

Back then, poker rooms did almost nothing to bring in their own customers. Nobody advertised on television. Nobody was sponsoring poker tours. But when the rooms began branching out into other marketing media that started to signal a shift in how poker rooms valued affiliates. It wasn’t immediate. Affiliates were still sending a high enough percentage of the new signups that nobody wanted to rock the boat but the writing was on the wall.

I obviously can’t disclose proprietary information but I do know that the larger a poker room is the smaller the percentage of new signups come from affiliates. Smaller rooms often rely on affiliates for 50% or more of their players. That’s why small rooms pay big percentages to lure in affiliates. They have to. They can’t afford to outspend Stars or Tilt in advertising. And I can say that some of the larger rooms only get 10% – 20% of their new signups from affiliates. And, in most cases, 80% of those new signups come from 20% of the affiliates. The other 80% are dead weight.

Plus, the poker rooms have woken up to the value of web traffic. Poker rooms are launching blogs, training sites, Facebook accounts, Twitter updates, etc. They’re also bulking up their internal SEO teams and hiring top SEO experts to outrank their own affiliates.

But more importantly in all of this, the poker rooms started to develop a brand. More casual players know Full Tilt’s name than know your site’s name. They know all the Full Tilt Pros by name so why should they go through another site to get to a brand they already know?

And, just as iPoker and other networks have started to crack down on better players . . . this is exactly what Full Tilt is doing by targeting rakeback affiliates. Overall, rakeback players are net redeemers from the poker economy. All Full Tilt is doing is putting the crimp on the affiliates to discourage new rakeback affiliates from popping up every day. The ones who are already out there are being grandfathered with their existing players so this only impacts new signups. They’re basically trying to adjust the flow.

It may sound as if this post is a bit of a case of schadenfreude but it’s anything but. I’m a freakin’ affiliate too!! I have a rakeback site. My earnings will likely be impacted just like everyone else.

But, I also understand how poker rooms work and how they make money so none of this comes as any surprise to me. I’m also not going to spin my wheels on ineffective responses like boycotting Full Tilt.

Back during the dotcom boom years I always said “This can’t last but I’m going to ride it for as long and as hard as I can.” And I made a lot of money working from 1994 – 2000 in the dotcom industry. But when the crash came I wasn’t surprised. I had already anticipated it and had set myself up with contacts, skills, and a reputation that would help me ride out the lean years when the music stopped.

I remember back when the crash first started many of my colleagues would piss and moan on message boards and mailing lists about not being able to find jobs or couldn’t afford the lifestyle they had grown accustomed to. One, and what a crackpot she was, even suggested that it was a conspiracy by the bigger companies to drive down labor costs.

But I looked around at these people and I see a guy who read HTML in 7 Days demanding $50K a year for his unique (sarcasm intended) skill set. I saw people who spent 4 or 5 years priding themselves on having zany job titles like Director of Awesomeness suddenly being unable to transfer that job experience into real world jobs.

Well, the same is happening today. You’re starting to see the first cracks. The affiliate business will get tougher. Rooms are going to start looking at their spending and trying to find ways to maximize their return on investment. That will likely mean trimming affiliate payouts. Don’t be surprised if the bigger poker rooms buy up the largest affiliates or start competing directly with their own affiliates.

And if the US opens up gambling and anybody thinks Harrah’s or any other major land based casino is going to give affiliates a 35% or 40% cut you’re dreaming.

It’s not all doom and gloom but if you think the poker affiliate business is just going to sail on forever with huge payouts to affiliates you’re not in touch with reality. If you think you’re going to be able to make a living slapping up purchased content with the only aim to rank high for keywords you’re just like the $50K a year HTML coder.

I read the various affiliate forums and it’s quite obvious that the vast majority of affiliates have no desire to create value for others. They want to slap up a bonus website and wait for the big dollars to come raining down. They don’t say it in so many words but when you look at what they ask questions about it gives you a peek into their value system.

The people who will survive and thrive are those who innovate. The industry is changing and those who jump out in front of the change will be rewarded well and those who just copycat what everyone else is doing will be earning pennies.

So make your choice affiliates. Deny the change and spend your time gathering petition signatures or get off your ass and do something that changes the value proposition.

photcred to .A.A.

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

Are you following me on Twitter? Why not?

The Sky is Falling for Affiliates

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Razz Poker and the Worlds Greatest Ever Gambler

2010-02-21T20:36:45-08:00

Last week I said the Razz poker article that was coming up included one of my favorite all time poker stories. Instead of writing your standard how to play Razz article which you’ll be able to find in about 5 seconds on Google I’m just going to dive straight in and try to write something that’s exciting and more importantly interesting!

If you didn’t catch my first article then you can find it here: Introduction to Low Ball poker

Some of you might have heard of Archie ‘The Greek’ Karas but most of you probably haven’t. His story is one of true greatness. Archie is a man who is considered to be the greatest gambler of all time and when he arrived in Las Vegas to shoot pool in 1992 no one could have guessed what was about to go down.

Archie was in town to shoot pool but his love of gambling and natural talent for poker was where his story really stars. With just $50 in his poker Archie rocked up to Binions Horseshoe and started playing in the Razz poker games. In no time at all Archie had ran his $50 into a massive $30,000. During this heater Archie player only Razz and by the end of it he was sat in one of the biggest games in town a $200/$400 fixed limit Razz cash game.

With $30,000 in his pocket Archie then began shooting pool and after some truly epic battles with a player who to this day remains nameless Archie had turned his $30,000 in to a staggering $7,000,000!

It was at this point that Archie entered Binions Horseshoe sat at a heads up table with $5,000,000 in front of him and presented an open challenge to anyone with the bottle to come and play him. Of course the game was Razz and the first challenger was the legendary Stu Ungar. The two greats of the game battled for 3 straight days until finally Archie broke Stu Ungar taking a total of $500,000 from him. At the time it was the biggest game the poker world had ever seen. After Stu Ungar challengers came and went but no one ever got the best of Archie.

In fact the only person to ever get the best of Archie was Archie himself. He got bored with playing poker, the action wasn’t fast enough and the stakes weren’t high enough. Archie moved to the craps tables where his Vegas heater would finally end. At his highest point it’s said Archie was up over $50,000,000 but slowly and surely he went broke shooting craps for over $200,000 a point.

The years Archie spent gambling in Vegas will always be remembered and his reputation as the worlds greatest ever gambler is firmly set in Las Vegas history.

If this story has sparked an interest in Razz poker for you then you should check my new Razz poker website. It covers everything you’ll need to learn the game and play online.

Photocred to Andrew 鐘

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

Are you following me on Twitter? Why not?

Razz Poker and the Worlds Greatest Ever Gambler

Badugi Poker: Game History and How To Play This is now the third article in the series...
Low Ball Poker by Dave Editor’s Note: Dave has written some interesting stuff about low...
The Week That Was – Goodbye February This week was an insanely busy week for me. On...

A Taste of Thailand

2010-02-18T03:19:42-08:00

Hey look Ma, I canz writes my own name

I learned to write my name recently. Well, I knew how to write it in English (thanks, Misses kindergarden teacher I don’t remember) but I hadn’t really learned it in Thai. I had looked up how to write Bill on some website and it gave me a rather complicated way which I never bothered with. But recently I had to have some business cards made up and the front is in English and the reverse (or the front, depending on how you look at it) is in Thai. The printer looked at my name in English and wrote บิล รินิ. I can read enough Thai to be able to sound that out and I was like “Damned, that’s pretty easy. Almost easier than English.” The one I had copied from the website used two L’s (ล in Thai) in Bill and had some accent marks which I guess was to try to get the pronunciation as close to Bill as possible but many people are still going to call me Khun Beow anyway so writing it “BEE-L” is close enough.

My last name is actually perfect since written in Thai more Thai people say it correctly than when I write it in English and an English speaker tries to say it. The name is of Italian origin so the “i” in Italian is pronounced like saying the letter “e.” So in Thai the little little cap over the two letters in my last name is the same sound. The first letter is an R sound followed by the letter E then the N sound and then the letter E again.

All my life I’ve had people call me Rin E (pronouncing Rin like Rin Tin Tin and then saying the letter E), Rene, and all sorts of weird pronunciations. Only when in Italy do people pronounce it correctly and not have to ask. Granted, the Thais tend to give the R a little of an L sound but LINI is better than Rene.

What?

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, Thai is a tonal language. Whether you say a word with a rising tone or a falling tone can mean the difference between asking for a doctor or a pig. But to a certain degree, I think living in Europe causes one to become somewhat tone deaf. In order to understand a Londoner, someone from Manchester, a Irishman, and a Scott you need to ignore all tones and just concentrate on the word. It’s even worse for people who are speaking English as a second (or third, or fourth) language. You quit listening for tone and just try to hear the words.

Of course, that complicates Thai which is all about the tones. My friend Rob the other night commented on the fact that when I say something in Thai that’s supposed to be a question I use a rising tone even if the word doesn’t have a rising tone. This is partially an English language thing but it is also a habit picked up living around Spain. “We go to the store, No?” You would say that with a rising emphasis on “No” to indicate it is a question.

Rob called me out on it when I asked the waitress for some water the other night. I asked for Naam Bplau with a slight rise in tone on the last syllable to indicate I was politely asking if she could bring some (rather than demanding it).

What’s even worse is that in Thai there are words you use to indicate a question. For instance you might ask someone “Kao jai, mai?” which means “Understand?”. The word “mai” is there to indicate that you are asking a question rather than making a statement. But I often find myself just changing the tone of the word and omitting the question word. If I’m explaining something to a Thai in English I might stop to confirm their understanding by saying “Kao jai?” but without the “mai” it’s a statement not a question as to whether they understand.

That one, I think most of the Thais I deal with they cut me some slack and know I’m asking. I don’t think anyone other than my Thai teacher has ever corrected me on my poor form.

Thaimes are a changin’

Speaking of Thai teachers, I got a new one. I needed to make some adjustments in my schedule and the timing of my class needed changed. I asked if the school had something more convenient for me and suggested Monday and Wednesdays from 1:00 – 3:30. That was a bit of a jump since my pervious class was twice a week as well but only 2 1 hours and 45 minutes each session. This was ~~three~~ two and a half hours each session.

I agreed though and thought it might be good because they were about a month or month and a half behind where my class was so I could get in some review. I was sort of getting a little frustrated because I had spent how many every months taking these classes and I still didn’t feel very confident about my Thai.

So when I showed up for my first class with the new teacher and she started speaking to me (and expecting to respond) in Thai I was a little taken aback. Hey, this class is supposed to be at least a month behind where I was and within 10 minutes I had spoken more Thai than I would in a whole session in my other class.

But I really dug it. It’s amazing how much more quickly you pick things up when you’re forced to think and respond in Thai. In the other class we basically read scripted conversations from the book but in this one the teacher would ask “How do you get from your apartment to the grocery store?” It’s fairly basic but when all you’ve had to do is read the response in a book rather than actually giving real directions it changes how you process the language.

I also like that the teacher gets farangs. she understands how we think. If I had one criticism of my previous teacher it is that she really didn’t get how our educational system makes it difficult for us to process information without understanding it. For instance, in my previous class we had been given a rule about writing a particular vowel. The teacher told us there were four exceptions and told us the four words that were different. Okay, but why? She just said to memorize the four words. The new teacher explained why the exceptions exist and there’s actually a logical reason for it so remembering those words is much easier because you know why they’re exceptions.

Thailand through the eyes of a woman

I was thinking about this the other day and a friend brought it up in a conversation which convinced me it wasn’t just some weird thing on my part, but if you’re a farang in Thailand almost all of your experiences with Thai culture are through women. My friend asked, “How many male Thai friends do you have? Not a co-worker or your driver but someone who is close enough to you that you would just go out and have a beer with.” Out of five guys, the grand total was five. And that included people like me who had to answer zero.

First off, women dominate the service industries. Go into any shop or department store and chances are 90% of the staff is female. Stay in a hotel and chances are the receptionist and most of the staff other than the doorman and security are female. Go to your mobile phone company and nearly all of the customer service staff are female. Go to any restaurant and chances are everybody on this side of the kitchen is female. So most of the people you meet are either other foreigners or Thai women. You almost can’t help it.

Secondly, Thai men don’t hang out where farangs hang out. The one glaring exception to that is up in Chiang Mai a couple of places we went to there were several Thai guys hanging out. Other than that one experience, when I go out to a bar or a nightclub the chances of seeing a Thai guy who isn’t parking cars or asking to see your ID are slim. Sure, if you go out to Thai nightclubs you’ll see plenty of Thai guys but most of the time when that happens you’re the only white guy in the place.

It’s not that there’s any tension between farang and Thai men. Most are very friendly and chatty. It’s just that they don’t tend to socialize with farangs much. Farangs have our world which consists of some fairly well-known areas of Bangkok (lower Sukhumvit, Koh San Road, Silom, etc) and the Thais have all the rest and those two worlds seldom intersect.

There are some exceptions. It’s not totally black and white. But the exceptions aren’t very common. Like I said, between five guys, some having lived here 10 years or more, only five Thai male friends between them. I’m guessing that’s pretty much standard.

So, what I’m getting at here is that whatever you end up learning about Thai culture tends to come from Thai women. They could be telling you something no Thai guy would ever agree with but you’ll never know because chances are you don’t have any Thai male friends you can ask.

Why I was thinking about it is it struck me how slanted a perspective of America I would have if I only knew women. From tastes in films to music you would have this completely distorted view of “Americans” if you only really interacted with 50% of them.

So, am I going to go out and make friends with a bunch of Thai guys? Probably not. It was just something that was on my mind :-)

Things are getting getting hot in here

This time of year is when it starts to get hot and steamy. November, December and January are the cool months. That means it gets down to 85 during the days and may even get to a bone chilling 78 at night. Starting in February it starts to get warmer and warmer and warmer until it peaks out around April or May. It’s not that it’s hot but it’s humid too.

But this February things are getting even hotter than normal because the former PM Thaksin is awaiting a verdict on whether or not the government was just in seizing about $2.2 billion of his cash when he was tossed out in a coup in 2006. Word on the street is that he took a beating in the Dubai real estate crash and this $2.2 billion actually means something to him.

The verdict in the case is expected for Feb 26. His supporters have been causing trouble around the kingdom in the hopes of intimidating the judges into ruling in Thaksin’s favor. For instance last weekend someone tossed a grenade near the government house and later they found a few kilos of C4 explosives wired up like a bomb in the parking lot of the government house.

The thing that just blows my mind (no pun intended) about Thailand is that a general in the Thai army was suspected of being behind the grenade attack. He responded to press questions saying that it was obviously not him because this type of attack wasn’t his style. He said that everyone knows if it was him he would have called and warned people ahead of the attack. That’s his proof. Or better yet, you have a general in the armed forces saying that if he were going to attack the government he’d do it differently. Who gets to keep their job after a statement like that? In Thailand that’s normal.

Another general, Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdiphol, (who publicly supports Thaksin) got a public bitch slapping from the top army general Army Chief Gen Anupong (who is not a Thaksin supporter) and removed from command. He later told the press, “I want to warn judges to be careful both before and after judgment day because I don’t know when they’re going to shoot you. The gunman may be a professional killer or a hit man hired by people, because now the red shirts have become fanatical with patriotic sentiment as they feel they do not receive justice.”

So to add to the tension it was recently reported that Thaksin’s supporters have recently received $10 million from an anonymous source outside the country. Hmmmm . . . who has that kind of money, lives outside the country, and really, really, really wants to see Thaksin get his $2.2 billion back? The list of people is a list of one, Thaksin.

And the only reason $10 million would come at this particular moment is because they need money to pay protesters to come out and protest. And, to possibly finance some domestic terrorism (or hire the hit men Gen Khattiya warned about) in the hopes of destabilizing the current government.

So all in all, things should be pretty interesting up to Feb 26th when the supreme court renders their decision. Pretty much everyone sees this as Thaksin’s last stand. So it’s a no-holds barred match. He’s pulling out every piece of ammunition he has because once the government gets that $2.2 billion he’ll never see it again.

One suggestion I saw floated recommended the government give the money back to the people directly. Basically just say “Hey, here’s all the money Thaksin stole from you,” and hand them a check for 1100 baht ($33 USD). That might not sound like a lot but you have to figure that a waitress in Bangkok makes about 7000 baht ($212 USD) per month. That nearly 16% of your monthly wage. Plus, the vast majority of people in Thailand live in the villages and on farms where 7000 baht is big money. Many get by on 3000 – 4000 baht per month or less.

Some people have suggested that this time his supporters may not limit their attacks to Thai targets like they normally do. They may hit at the tourist/farang parts of town in order to damage the tourism industry which might help destabilize the government. I’m not sure I’ve changed my normal habits much but I’m not hanging out if I see some shifty looking Thai guys loitering about in farang establishments. :-)

Hmmm . . . . anything else? Nah, I think I’ve rambled on enough. Enjoy your day!

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

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A Taste of Thailand

A Taste of Thailand – December 6, 2009 I decided to try a new Mexican food joint...
A Taste of Thailand July 25, 2009 It’s Saturday night here in Thailand. I’m sitting in...
A Taste of Thailand 08.11.2009 Many people might be aware that by living in Bangkok...

Low Ball Poker by Dave

2010-02-15T20:44:19-08:00

Editor’s Note: Dave has written some interesting stuff about low ball poker and I asked if he could share some of his thoughts here with you guys. Show him a little love by giving his site a visit and checking him out.

Introduction To Lowball Poker

Lowball poker is a term used to encompass all games which use a variety of low hand rankings as opposed to the more traditional high hand rankings used in No Limit Holdem and many other popular poker variants. Texas Holdem and Pot Limit Omaha dominate the online poker world in fact there’s probably quite a few online players out there who have no idea how to play the different lowball games on offer.

This article will be part of series of guest posts Bill has kindly allowed me to make on his awesome poker blog! Today we’ll just start with an introduction to the most popular forms of lowball poker but in coming weeks the series will take a much more in depth look at the various lowball poker games you can play online. I’ll be doing my best to make all the posts as informative as possible as well as entertaining.

Popular Online Lowball Poker Games

Razz – Razz poker is without a doubt the most popular lowball poker game around. It’s got a reputation for being a bit crazy and outdrawtastic. A lot of players first come into contact with Razz via H.O.R.S.E and it’s considered one of the more tricky games in the H.O.R.S.E rotation.

Razz is essentially 7 Card Stud but using ace to five hand rankings. When playing Razz the holy nuts is A-2-3-4-5, straights and flushes don’t count against you when playing Razz but pairs and obviously high cards do. Aces are always considered low cards only.

Badugi – Badugi poker is the most recent form of lowball poker to be spread online and it’s thought to have originated from South Korea. It’s a four card triple draw lowball game which uses it’s own very unique system to rank hands. Badugi is a real favorite among high stakes live pro’s who consider it a real gambling game, don’t let that fool you though there’s a lot of skill involved.

When playing Badugi the aim is to make what is known as a Badugi. A Badugi consists of four cards which are all of different values and different suits. The best possible Badugi you can make is A-2-3-4. Pokerstars is pretty much the only place you can get a game online, it is spread at Merge networked poker rooms but their traffic sucks and the games never run.

2-7 Triple Draw – 2-7 Triple Draw is comfortably the second most popular lowball poker game but still sits firmly behind Razz in the popularity stakes. It first appeared online in 2003 when Pokerstars added it to their spread of games. 2-7 Triple Draw uses the deuce to seven hand rankings system in which a non flushing 2-3-4-5-7 is the absolute nuts. Aces are high cards and when playing 2-7 Triple Draw straights and flushes both count against you.

It’s usually played as a fixed limit game, sometimes played as pot limit game and very very rarely played as a no limit game. Online action can get pretty high and it’s not unusual to see the $1,000/$2,000 2-7 Triple Draw games running at Pokerstars.

2-7 Single Draw – Well as you probably already guessed 2-7 Single Draw is the same as Triple Draw aside from the fact there’s one draw and not three. As a result of less draws it’s played as a no limit game far more often than a fixed limit or pot limit game.

Single Draw is much less popular than Triple Draw online but is still spread on the cash tables at Pokerstars as well as featuring in their World Championship of Online Poker. Single Draw is sometimes referred to as Kansas City Lowball and you’ll virtually never find it spread in any live poker rooms.

Next Week Razz

Hopefully you enjoyed this introduction to lowball poker article, next time out we’ll take a much closer look at Razz poker. I’ll write a bit about it’s history, including on of the most exciting moments in Vegas poker history ever and give you a basic how to play guide.

Want to read more about lowball poker right now? Then you should check out my site playlowballpoker.com, I’ve covered all the lowball games above in much more depth and also some of the more popular hi/lo games. Check it out, I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it!

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

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Low Ball Poker by Dave

Badugi Poker: Game History and How To Play This is now the third article in the series...
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The Weeks That Was

2010-02-15T19:40:37-08:00

Bluff Magazine recently announced their Power 20 of poker and I’ve seen several people comment here and there about who should or should not have been on the list. Before I give my views, here’s the list:

1. PokerStars
2. Full Tilt Poker
3. Mitch Garber
4. Howard Lederer
5. Ty Stewart
6. Doyle Brunson
7. Joe Cada
8. Barney Frank
9. Tony G
10. Daniel Negreanu
11. Phil Ivey
12. John Pappas
13. Mike Sexton
14. Mori Eskandani
15. Brian Balsbaugh
16. Lance Bradley
17. Joe Sebok
18. Barry Shulman
19. Matt Savage
20. Per Hagen

I think if Bluff is going to recognize entities like PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker then I’m not really sure on some of the other logic. Is Mitch Garber #3 because he’s Mitch Garber or is he #3 because he is essentially in charge of the WSOP at the moment? If it’s the later then shouldn’t the WSOP be #3 instead of the man?

Now, don’t get me wrong, I used to work for Mitch and he’s a very bright and intelligent guy and very capable of leading the WSOP but my question goes more to whether he would be on the list if he would have taken another job. If he was running another poker room would he be #3? Personally, I don’t think he would be. I don’t find that to be a reflection on Mitch but more on how these rating things tend to skew results towards organizations than individuals even though they honor the individual who is at the top of the organization.

Which makes it equally confusing as to why they left off Ray Bitar (CEO Full Tilt Poker) or Isai Scheinberg (founder PokerStars). If you’re going to name Full Tilt and PokerStars as the top two in your Power 20 then how do the driving forces behind them not even get a mention?

And what about Bluff’s Editor in Chief, Lance Bradley, being on the list? Is Lance Bradley that influential or is Bluff? I’m not taking a stab at Lance as I don’t even know the guy. I’m simply asking why name a person in one instance and an entire company in another?

I’m also not really a fan of picking the current WSOP ME winner as a shoe-in for the list. Joe Cada is probably a really cool guy but this time next year will he make the list after a new WSOP champion has been crowned? If not, what is he doing on the list? Why not just list it as “Current WSOP ME Champion”? Shouldn’t the list reflect lifetime contribution to the industry rather than who’s the flavor of the week? I mean that in no disrespect to Cada but let’s face it, the press is fickle and the spot on the Power 20 goes to the current WSOP ME champion and not to the actual individual human being.

Overall putting together these types of lists is difficult. Mostly because it’s subjective. On top of that Bluff claims “Each year BLUFF Magazine seeks the opinion and input of the poker industry in hopes of putting together a comprehensive list for our readers of the most influential and powerful people in the poker industry” which sounds good on paper but if you ask a group of people who all have a certain view on the industry your list is going to be biased towards that view.

For instance, the list seems to be somewhat over-represented with agents and media people. Considering the billions of dollars made throughout the industry do they really represent that much influence? Or is it that a magazine publisher would need to deal with agents in order to get exclusive interviews so these people seem much more influential than they might be to the industry as a whole.

I really don’t know and I’m not accusing anyone of anything other than being subjective which leaves room for others to question how the list was put together. You can’t really argue with lists like Fortune 500 or Forbes Richest lists because they’re objective. Forbes may love me but that still doesn’t mean I can get a spot on their rich list.

Anyway, enough with that malarky, on with the week(s) that was . . .

Bill’s Poker Blog

Play Money Players Are Free to Officially Hate Me
Valentine’s Day in Thailand
Phil Gordon, Chris Hanel, The Wampler, and Me Roshambo for Cash
Bill’s Poker Blog Exclusive Freeroll on Chili Poker

Rakeback Report

Using a Stop Loss Strategy
Punishing Passive Players
Playing Marginal Hands
Micro Stakes Poker Strategy
Down Swings With Rakeback
Clearing Poker Bonuses
PlayersOnly and Sportsbook.com Moving to Merge Gaming
Recognizing Tilt
Poker Education
6 Max No Limit Hold’em Cash Games
Creating a Table Image
Playing Aggressive Poker
Race for your share of €60,000 at Paradise Poker
Cake Poker $60,000 Rake Race
Taking Shots

Poker Job Search

Senior Financial Controller – Poker
Media Analyst – Poker
Regional Customer Relationship Marketing Manager – Poker
Night Operations Manager – Poker
Marketing Manager, UK & Ireland – Poker
Poker Executive
Business Analyst – Poker Experience
Poker Affiliate Manager

Remember, if your company has a job opening and you want to list it on Poker Job Search, just give us a shout and we’ll get your job posted for you. And if you’re a in-house recruiter or agency and have a tough spot to fill please contact me about sponsoring Poker Job Search. Your jobs will get priority placement and a specific mention on this site as part of your sponsorship package.

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

Are you following me on Twitter? Why not?

The Weeks That Was

The Week That Was June 29 – July 6 Last week I made some comments about celebrities dropping like...
The Week That Was July 6 – July 13 A very interesting week. WSOP well into the grind...
The Week That Was Aug 31 – Sept 6 Okay, I’ll admit this update will cover more than...

Play Money Players Are Free to Officially Hate Me

2010-02-14T20:41:06-08:00

Party Poker recently announced changes to their play money games which I’m sure many play money enthusiasts are going to hate. I guess I’ll add some more fuel to the fire by saying not only do I agree with Party Poker’s change but I was one of the people who supported such a change when I was with the company and I don’t think they should stop there.

Basically, what Party Poker has done is to put a cap on how many play money chips a player can accumulate. Their position is that the ability to accumulate large amounts of chips has resulted in a secondary market for play money chips on sites like eBay and ChipEmpire where players can run up huge balances and then sell their accounts.

First off, you have to look at what value play money players add to the poker site. After 120 days the value is close to zero. The number of conversions from play money to real money players is so small most poker sites write it off as zero value. That means if I can’t get you to make a deposit in 120 days I will never get your to deposit and essentially you’re just receiving a free service with me unable to recoup my cost of providing the service.

Some might argue that the fact that many play money players do convert to real money players that I’m making my money back on those players and that I should look at it from a global perspective. I give that argument some respect but the fact remains that if you don’t convert within 120 days then you simply costing me money. Money that could be spent on promotions and bonuses.

How can a play money player cost me money? They use network resources, server resources, etc. That’s in addition to the countless support emails they send (which most poker rooms ignore) asking for assistance transferring their play money empire over to another poker room and other senseless support questions. That may not seem like a lot of money per player but in aggregate for a large size poker room it could easily run into the millions of dollars a year.

Besides, why does any player need a billion dollars in play money chips? What’s the purpose? If they don’t want to make a real money deposit then why can’t they live with some upward limits on the amount of chips they can accumulate?

Of course, there is the legal issue as well. If the chips have monetary value via a secondary market is the room now providing wagering? Many sites allow play money players from countries where they cannot legally offer real money play so this is also a valid concern.

What I have also suggested in the past are two ways sites can monetize these players. This solves the problem for the poker room who is currently losing money on the players and it allows the players to continue enjoying the game they love.

The first idea is a subscription model. Players would be required to pay a monthly fee to play after they have been on the site for more than 120 days. In exchange for the fee the poker site could offer drawings or prizes giving most of the money back to players. I know there are some legal issues with this because if they pay for a membership and then receive prizes some jurisdictions might lump it into wagering but I’ve heard some creative ways around that problem that I think would work.

My second idea is to advertise on play money sites. Party Poker did this but I really feel they missed my vision when I suggested the idea. What I would have liked to have seen was perhaps a overlay on the table felt with a sponsor’s logo somewhat like you see on many televised poker events. You could also have certain rooms named after sponsors or offer freerolls in which the sponsor kicks in the prize pool (plus a little extra for the room) and you can require the players to take a quiz or visit the sponsor’s website for the password.

Unfortunately, what was implemented was banner ads in the lobby and around the table. I really don’t think that’s as effective because it doesn’t promote either brand (the room or the sponsor’s).

As the market gets more and more competitive I think you’ll see more rooms trying to monetize traffic or eliminate costs. Even though play money poker does help in conversions there is a point at which you’re simply providing a gaming platform for people who are never going to generate revenue for you.

photocred to jimmiehomeschoolmom

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

Are you following me on Twitter? Why not?

Play Money Players Are Free to Officially Hate Me

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Even Play Money Poker Is Rigged! I’m not even sure how I ran across this...
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Valentine’s Day in Thailand

2010-02-13T18:20:28-08:00

Today is both Chinese New Year and Valentine’s Day. Here in Thailand Valentine’s Day is celebrated but it’s not really a Thai holiday. Much like other consumer oriented holidays advertisers have sold the concept here but it has no real roots in Thai culture or tradition. Christmas is much the same. All the malls are decorated up in festive displays and people wear their little santa caps and such but most have no idea what the holiday is really supposed to be about. Marketers have just sold the concept that it’s a sanook (fun) holiday and the Thais have adopted it which drives more sales.

Anyway, the real reason for the post was that last week I organized a little photo shoot event on ThailandFriends.com and we struck out into Chinatown and the Klong Toei market looking for photo opportunities. I thought I would share some of the results.

Thanks for reading Bill's Poker Blog. You might want to check out his other sites:

Poker Job Search is a resource for people who are looking to get started in the online poker industry.

Rakeback Report Get the best rakeback deals from the biggest online poker sites. Learn how you can make a living playing poker.

Flop the Nuts Poker gives you up to date info on live poker events

Are you following me on Twitter? Why not?

Valentine’s Day in Thailand

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